agco: the global market for agricultural machinery-trends, perspectives, opportunities for china
DESCRIPTION
Presented November 10th, 2009 at Agritechnica.TRANSCRIPT
The Global Market for Agricultural Machinery – Trends, Perspectives, Opportunities for China
10th November, 2009
�Hubertus M. Mühlhäuser, Senior Vice President, Strategy & Integration,
General Manager, Eastern Europe and Asia, AGCO
2
Agenda
AGCO Corporation
Industry Trends
Strategic Update
Strategic Update
Industry Trends
3
History of Industry-Known Brands
Super Technology
New Distribution
Geographic Diversity
Economies of Scale
Synergy Opportunities
1994
19
94
1994
1997
1991
1995
19
96
1996
1990
1995
2001
20
02
2001
2000
19
97
1998
19
98
1997
2004
20
07
AGCO´s Acquisition History
4
Growth Through Four Leading Focus Brands
Serious machinery for professional producers
One of the most widely distributed ag brands
Completely customized performance
Premium reputation for high tech solutions
5
Competitive Full Line of Products
Tractors
From 45 hp to 590 hp
Combines
Classes IV– VIII from 174 to 425 hp
Other Ag Equipment
Balers Sprayers Planters Tillage
Technology
Engines Trans-
missions Precision
Farming Telemetry Auto Guide Yield
Monitor
6
Global Manufacturing Presence
Diesel Engines Linnavuori, Finland
Round Balers5)
Russi, Italy
AGCO owns: 1) 50% interest GIMA transmission JV 2) 23% interest in TAFE 3) 50% of Laverda 4) 50% of engine JV with CTP 5) 25% interest Round Balers 6) 50% interest Fella
Tractors Marktoberdorf, Germany
Implements Beloit, Kansas
Combines/ Hay Equipment Hesston, Kansas
Tractors Queretaro, Mexico
Sprayers/ Tracked Tractors Jackson, Minnesota Sprayers
Grubbenvorst, The Netherlands
Tractors Suolahti, Finland
Cabs Baumenheim, Germany
Combines Randers, Denmark
Tractors GIMA1)-Transmissions Beauvais, France
Tractors/Engines Mogi das Cruzes, Brazil
Tractors Canoas, Brazil
Combines Santa Rosa, Brazil
TAFE2)
Massey Ferguson Licensee India
Laverda3)
Breganze, Italy
Planters Ibiruba, Brazil
Engines4)
Vladimir, Russia
Gensets Shanghai, China
Engines / Tractors Rosario, Argentina
Assembly Operation Tacoma, Washington
DAMSA Engine JV Haedo, Argentina
Assembly Operation Baltimore, Maryland
Assembly Operation Houston, Texas Implement Factory6)
Feucht, Germany
Components Hohenmoelsen, Germany
7
AGCO Today
Leading “Pure-Play” global ag equipment company
Full range of products and services
Leading brands
Well positioned in growing markets
15,000+ employees in 140 countries
2009 will be around 2007 levels
Global Net Sales In US $ bn
0,2
5,4
2,4
6,8
8,4
ca. 6,6
1990 1999 2006 2007 2008 2009
-20%
8
Service For Our Customers
9
Clear Vision, Mission and Strategy
Vision: High-tech solutions for professional farmers feeding the world
Mission: Profitable growth through superior customer service, innovation,
quality and commitment
Key Strategic Thrust: Profitable Growth in China and Eastern Europe
10
Agenda
AGCO Corporation
Industry Trends
Strategic Update
Strategic Update
AGCO Corporation
11
World
2009 2014
Eastern Europe, Asia
2009 2014
South America
2009 2014
EAME/ANZ
2009 2014
North America
2009 2014
13,582 13,574
13,94116,332
Already Today Asia is One of the Top Ag Regions
In US $ m Industry (Western) Industry (Non-Western)
2,918 4,919 3,309 5,716
9,752
15,15013,061
20,866+10%
33,750 40,541
10,090
15,61343,840 56,154
+5%
13,691 13,692
+0%*
109 118 14,06616,484
+3%
125152
3,0225,113
+11%
194104
* CAGR
12
The World is Impacted by the Economic Crisis …
Real GDP Growth (%)
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook - October
-7,5
-5,0
-2,5
0,0
2,5
5,0
7,5
10,0
South America
North America
Western Europe
Eastern Europe
Africa Australia and New Zealand
Japan China & Other Asia
2008 2009F 2010F 2011F
13
… yet Long-Term Ag Drivers Remain in Place …
Will drive higher commodity prices and farm income
World population growth
Limited land for production
Improved diet
Biofuel production
14
… China’s Ag Industry Continues to Evolve
China’s agricultural market is up in 2009, despite the global crisis
China has 20% of the world population with less than 10% arable land
Agricultural industry GDP contribution has fallen during China’s industrialization. Yet, the sector still accounts for 11% of GDP and up to 40% of employment.
Increasingly, labor moves from agricultural to industrial sector and provides needed manpower to fuel growth. Ratio of immigrant workers in urban labor forces has grown from 1.7% in 1983 to 46.7% in 2007.
Although the importance is diminishing, agriculture, farmers and countryside have made significant contributions to China’s economic leap.
15
China’s Main Agriculture Production Centers
Very populated Fragmented farms Very intense agriculture Crops: Rice, Wheat Market for smaller tractors
and combines
Very densely populated Booming economy Ongoing consolidation of
farms Crops: Rice, Wheat Private investment around
bigger cities Consolidation of farm
equipment producers Market for smaller tractors
and combines
Scarcely populated Big state farms Extensive agriculture Crops: Wheat, Maize,
Soybean, Rice Largest market for bigger
farm equipment
16
China Agricultural Balance – the Gap is Increasing …
16
Source: Economic Research Service calculations based on China customs data; China’s Ongoing Agricultural Modernization, USDA
US $ bn
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
China’s agricultural exports
China’s agricultural imports
China’s WTO accession
December 2001
17
3-Phase Evolution of Ag. Industry – Focus is Shifting
Industrialization is the overarching priority of economic development, entailing support from the agricultural sector in various forms of wealth transfer.
Pro-Industrialization 1 Industrial sectors develop on its own strength. Since the growth momentum of industrial sectors was much stronger than agriculture, the agriculture-industry imbalance continues to deteriorate.
Neutral Policy 2 Support from the industrial sectors to the agriculture sector after industrialization enters an advanced stage with a view to achieving balanced and sustainable growth in the long run.
Pro-Agriculture 3
2004-now1990-2004 1960-1990
Source: Investing for Sustainability: A Primer on China’s Agriculture, Farmers and the Countryside Issues, Morgan Stanley
18
Escalating Mechanization Offers Huge Opportunities
France Germany
UK Japan
Australia Russia Brazil
China Indonisia
Pakistan India
Canada USA
Mechanization Level Comparison (unit of tractor / 1000 farmers & ag. industry workers; 2007)
… China Remains at Comparatively low Levels
Despite Significant Mechanization 1978-2007 …
Machine-plowing level
Machine-cultivated level
Machine-sowing level
2003 2007 1993 1978 1983
47%
55%
18%
9%
47%
34%
40%
29% 27%
3%
12% 15%
25%
10%
63%
19%
59%
2% 5%
9%
41%
1988 1998
Mechanization RateSource: China Agricultural Machinery Industry Yearbook 2008; China Statistical Yearbook 2008
19
Growing Government Support to Agriculture
Chinese Government Agricultural Subsidies
Percentage of Lending to Agriculture in China, 2007
Source: Agriculture & Agri. Machinery Industry in China, VDMA; China web research, AGCO Strategy & Integration
US $ bn
1,79 2,06 3,82 6,34
13,32 16,04
0,01 0,04 0,08
1,48
0,58
0,26
0
4
8
12
16
20
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009*
Other Farm Subsidies Ag Machinery Subsidies
All Finan-cial
Insti-tutions
State-Owned Banks
Policy Banks
Share-holding Banks
Rural Co-
opera-tives
Com-mercial Banks
22% 18%
38%
8%
84%
5% 0%
10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
100%
20
Significant Growth in Key Market Segments
Tractor Population Combine Population
Source: China Agricultural Machinery Industry Yearbook 2008; China Statistical Yearbook 2008; AGCO Strategy & Integration
mio. units
+8%
92%
8%
90% 71%
10%
20%
80% 29%
94%
6%
85% 6.83
1.93 3.60
7%
93%
20.22
8.61
11.95
14.76
1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008
<25hp & Walking Tractors >25hp
15%
0.02 0.04 0.04 0.06
0.18
0.36
0.74
1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008
mio. units
+13%
Including all classes/hp of wheat, corn combines as well as full/semi–feed rice combines
21
Agenda
AGCO Corporation
Industry Trends
Strategic Update
AGCO Corporation
Industry Trends
22
Strategic Thrusts and Implications
Western Players Develop product range to meet EEA market
requirements and reach competitive cost position, potentially through partnerships
Establish domestic distribution as well as manufacturing and supply base
Develop financing and after sales services
Grow EEA to supply global operations (components) and markets (whole goods)
Domestic Players Become national champion for specific
product segment
Focus on reaching western technology, quality, and emission standards
Develop a presence in international markets
Increase growth in higher horse power tractors, larger grain combines and hay equipment.
As western players continue to grow their presence, competitive pressure on local players increases significantly
As non-western players upgrade their product range, existing differences diminish placing them as an alternative to western producers
23
AGCO’s China Strategy – Harvesting the Opportunity
23
Large, continuously growing market for small tractors
Farm consolidation and government policies drive growth in HHP tractors and combines
AGCO strategy focusing on
Continued growth of existing import business
Localization of proprietary technology in area of tractors and combines
Leverage of China as global sourcing and manufacturing base
24
Thank You For Your Attention
Hefei Farm Show, Oct 2009, China