100% renewable energy strategy for cape verde

MFM Master Plan Cape Verde 100% renewable energy Mak Đukan International Master in Material Flow Management Environmental Campus Birkenfeld, 2012

The greatest danger for most of us is not that our aim is too high and we miss it, but that it is too

low and we reach it

Michelangelo

650km from Senegal

QUICK FACTS ü  Population 515 000, low density ü  Area 7500 * smaller than Africa ü  10 islands of volcanic origin ü  Semi desert climate

NATURAL RESOURCES ü  1800 – 2200 kWh/m2/year average ü  8 – 5 m/s average wind ü  11% arable land ü  Water shortages

ECONOMY ü  GDP per capita $US 3800 ü  Agriculture 8.5% ü  Industry 16% ü  Services 75.5%

ü  Export/import 12% ü  Unemployment 21%

Material Flow Analysis

Dependance on fossil fuels

95% electricity from oil in 2010

Increase in electricity price

Electra increase in tariff 30%

€/kWh twice the EU price

Decrease in purchas. power

Renewable energy

Energy efficiency

GDP growth decline

Operational inefficiency

Power losses are 15% in Santiago

Lack of price adjustment

Government subsidy of

$US4.4 mil/a

Business restructuring

Inability to reinvest

Electricity network gets

worse

Blackouts effect business

ELECTRA is BUST !!!

Huge hidden costs

Electricity demand rises

Energy storage

Grid improvement Financing Renewable

energy

Energy efficiency

Business restructuring

Regional MFM solutions

Σ 100% RES

Participation

KNOWLEDGE GAPS ü  Focus on macro generation ü  Energy efficiency not a

important topic ü  Lack of ground work and

field data collection ü  Waste treated only as an

energy resource ü  . . .

Conventional approach How do you power a village in the middle of nowhere?

Regional MFM approach How do you create added value in a village in the middle of nowhere?

Demand analysis

Energy flows

Material

flows

Potential analysis

Micro potential

Macro potential

Efficiency improvement Solar thermal and PV Micro wind turbine Biogas for cooking Efficient wood cookstoves Land management

What can we “squeeze out”

of the existing infrastructure?

What new infrastructure do

we need?

What are the hidden

potentials?

Praia, Santiago

PRIORITIZE

Energy consumption

Waste

Material consumption

Santiago

Population

CLASIFY

Urban

Rural

Tourist

Industrial

IDENTIFY HOTSPOTS

LINK MATERIAL and

ENERGY FLOWS

Jatropha plantation

Nutrient recovery

Sludge extraction Biogas

Incineration

Jatropha Biodiesel

Terra Preta

Algae growth

Waste water from Praia Transport

Heat/cool and electricity

Electricity

Land management

Algae Biodiesel

Algae Biodiesel

Jatropha Biodiesel Biogas Incineration Terra Preta

Economic FeasabilityTechnological feasabilitySocial Acceptance Job creationGHG reduction

Low

Medium

High

ANALYZE ALTERNATIVES

STUDY IN DETAIL

Who are the stakeholders?

Government

NGO

RE Cluster

Inhabitants

Tourist industry

Electra

International donors

Technology developer

Technology provider

Power

Interest

Cape Verde 100% Renewable by 2020

100% Renewable Energy by 2020  

Energy Storage  

Grid Improvement  

MFM Optimization  

CORE ISSUES

Increase energy efficiency

Decrease distribution losses

Ensure reliable power supply

2012 2020 2015

Creating initial conditions

Demonstration

100% renewable

PROJECT STAGES

2012 2020 2015

Short term goals

ü  Electra business restructuring

ü  Facilitate renewable energy projects

ü  Ensure financing until 2020

Medium term goals

ü  Cape Verde 50% Renewable

ü  Decrease technical loss 50%

ü  Sao Vincente-Santo Antao-Sao-Nicolau

Long term goals

ü  Cape Verde 100% Renewable

ü  Decrease technical loss 90%

ü  Energy storage 30% final capacity

Study MFM Optimization

ü  Micro generation ü  Energy efficiency

improvement ü  Participation

Implementation

Zero Emission Islands Cluster

Efficiency gain 10 – 20 %

Decrease need for macro generation

Who are the stakeholders?

NGO??

Inhabitants

Technology provider Short term goals

Facilitate renewable energy projects

Promote private sector investment Create framework Self binding target

setting

100% RE in 2020

20% efficiency gain in 2020

50% RE in 2015 RE One Stop Shop

Ministry for renewable energy

RE Think Thank

Feed In Tariff

Tax break

Microfinance

VISION GREEN TOURISM

Green Resorts Standards

Boavista increase in total energy demand

from 9% to 15%

Thermal conductivity limit of building materials

Low E Glass Triple Window Glazing Wall Insulation

Tax breaks according

to performance

Medium term goals

Zero Emission Islands Cluster

Sao Vincente could power the cluster at a lower cost

107.6&

22.7& 6.4&

192.9&

96.6&

54&83&

222&

161&

Sao&Vincente&& Santo&Antao&& Sao&Nicolau&&

Comparison of energy demand, potential and costs !

Demand&(GWh)& PotenCal&(GWh)& LCOE&(EUR/MWh)&&

Source: Gesto Energy

Long term goals

Scale up energy storage capacity

Cape Verde has 70MW of identified potential (22% of demand in 2020)

Natural gas powered

NO GO: Venture capital

investments

Short discharge time Small power rating (up

to 1MW)

Source: EPRI, 2010, p9

Long term goals

Sodium sulfur battery

+ −

Demonstrated in over 190 sites in Japan

Largest instalation 34MW, 245 MWh

89% efficiency

6 hour peak shaving

Source: EPRI, 2010, p23 Costs 2300 – 2500 EUR/

kW

4500 cycles or 12 years

Limited suppliers

Safety issues

Long term goals

Energy storage solutions for Cape Verde

Submarine cables and pumped hydro utilization

Battery systems

Storage of energy in drinking water

Other – comparative analysis needed

Financing

100% Renewable Energy Scenario based on Gesto study

Methodology (by island)

Energy demand in 2020

Current RE production

Gap analysis

Calculate total CAPEX and LCOE by island

Derive figure for EUR/kWh

46%$

38%$

14%$

2%$

Source in 100% Renewable !

Wind$$

Solar$

Hydro$$

Waste$$

Macro generation of 670 GWh in 2020

Main findings

EUR 625 million for CAPEX and O&M

LCOE in 2020 0.13 EUR/kWh

MFM Optimization, submarine cables, grid

and energy storage (except hydro) not

included

Source: Gesto Energy

0"

100"

200"

300"

400"

500"

600"

700"

800"

2012" 2013" 2014" 2015" 2016" 2017" 2018" 2019" 2020" 2021"

GWh!

Comparison of BAU and Energy efficiency 20% scenario!

Demand"(GWh)" RE"Produc>on"(GWh)" Demand"EF"20%"(GWh)"

167 Mil EUR of savings Diesel LCOE=250 EUR/MWh

33 Mil EUR savings from MFM Optimization

0"

50"

100"

150"

200"

250"

300"

San*ago"" Boavista"" Sao"Vincente" Sal" Fogo" Maio" Sao"Nicolau"" Santo"Antao" Brava""

Thousand ! Comparison of energy production, CAPEX and LCOE by island in 2020!

Energy"(GWh)" Capital"expenditure"(EUR)"

Levelized"Cost"of"Electricity"(EUR/MWh)" Linear"(Levelized"Cost"of"Electricity"(EUR/MWh))"

Lower the CAPEX, higher the production costs

0"

50"

100"

150"

200"

250"

300"

Boavista"" Brava"" Maio" Sao"Nicolau"" Sal" Fogo" Santo"Antao" Sao"Vincente" San;ago""

Thousand ! Comparison of population and LCOE by island!

Levelized"Cost"of"Electricity"EUR/MWh"" Popula;on""Thousand"" Linear"(Levelized"Cost"of"Electricity"EUR/MWh")"

Higher the population, lower the production costs

Centralization of energy production could lead to

costs savings

Final remarks. . .

Focus on MFM Optimization/Microgeneration

Energy grid improvements

Innovative energy storage solutions

Centralize macro energy production

Realistic goal setting??

Work in progress . . .

Innovative financing

Refine kWh/EUR figure

Determine best storage solutions

Added value analysis