【平成25年度】地球の持続可能性と地域の持続可能性 / global sustainability and...

Global Sustainability and

Local Sustainability@EcoLead

Itaru Yasui, Prof.Prof.Emeritus, U of Tokyo

Former Vice Rector, United Nation University

President, National Institute of Technology and Evaluation

http://www.yasuienv.net/1

Bankruptcy of the Earth

Published December in 2012

To provide information to have an insightinto non-sustainable future of the Earth

Coauthor with 8 researchers below,

Seita Emori NIESHiroyuki Kawashima Univ. of TokyoAyako Sonoda Cre-en, PresidentKoumei Halada NIMSMiki Baba Nikkei EcologyJunichi Fujino NIESHiroyuki Matsuda National Univ. YokohamaYuuichi Moriguchi Univ. of Tokyo

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What is your evaluation? 5: Very Serious, 4:Serious, 3:Rather Serious,

2: Moderate for a while 1:Managiable

Climate Change/Extreme Whether

Loss of Biological Diversity

Depletion of Metal Resources

Depletion of Fossil Fuel

Explosion of Population/Food Issues

Environmental Pollution Issues

Not Enough Budget to Handle Issues

3

Chapter 1.

Local Bankruptcy &

Global Sustainability

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5

Republic of Nauru Population 9300, 20km2

Coral Reef?

Guano in Nauru

6

Guano manure is an effective fertilizerdue to its high levels of phosphorusand nitrogen and its relative lack of odor compared to other forms of organic fertilizer such as horse manure.

Guano from Republic of Nauru

2 million tons every year

Amount decreased from 1989

100 million tons of guano mined

High income & No income tax

Free electricity

Free medical care and free education fee

No cooking, always eat outside

Laborers mainly from China

Economy 100% dependence on export

Depleted from 2000

Job less rate 90% No intention to work7

2012 Drought in USA

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East Part of Kansas, USA

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10

West Part of Kansas, USA

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Ogalla

la A

quife

r, Gra

te P

lanes, U

SA

＋＋

＋＋

Ogallala Aquifer, USA

It is difficult to say, “Yes, we are OK. We are different from Nauru.”

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Lenton and Schellnhuber (2007)

Tipping Elements and Temperature Rise

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Sea Level Rise ～7 meters in 1000 years or more

Water Shortage - Hundreds of Millions of People

Biosphere may become net carbon source

Food: Good in Some Place, Bad in Other Place

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30% of Global Coastal Wetlands Lost

Temperature – History 1000years

15

Temperature differences were not so Big!

Mann et al. (2008)より

Little Glacier

Temp. Northern Hemi-sphere

Other Expression of Tipping Points

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人間活動の圧力

θ Tipping Point=Recovery Force Becomes ZeroPressure

By Human Activities

θ

0 TP 90

Trends in Living Planet Index

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Loss of BiodiversityClimate Change ⇒ Distribution Change of Plant(Plantae)⇒ Extinction of Species

A typical species becomes extinct within 10 million years of its first appearance

Homo sapiens will last 8 m Years

Global Scale Extinction Events

Cretaceous–Paleogene(K–Pg) ～66 Ma

Triassic–Jurassic(Tr-J) ～201 Ma

Permian–Triassic (P–Tr) ～252 Ma

Late Devonian (Late D) ～374 Ma

Ordovician–Silurian (O-S) ～450 - 440 Ma

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Number of Species (in thousand)

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We know well!

Speed of Extinction

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Global Scale Depletion of Underground Resources – Minerals/Fossil Fuel

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Degradation of Ore GradesOre Grades of Ni and Cu Mines（1885-2010）

Australia（％Cu）Australia（％Ni）Canda（％Cu）Canada（％Ni）USA（％Cu）

森口祐一氏提供

Ni

Cu

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Recent Trend: Price goes up!

Commodity Price IndicesFoodRaw MaterialsEnergyMetals and Minerals

1990

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By 2050 all reserve will be usedBy 2050 twice of reserve be usedBy 2050 exceed reserve base

Reserve BaseEstimated Use Accumulated

Already Mined

Reserve

原田幸明氏提供

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Env. Burden Ranking by TMR = Cu > Fe > Au > Al > Ni

TMR = Total Material Requirement

Others

Zn

U

Rh

Pt

Pd

Sn

Ni

Al

Au

Fe

Cu

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DevelopedCountries

Forests in DevelopingCountries

From MA=Millennium Ecosystem

Assessment (UN 2001~2005)

~1950 1950~1990 ~2050

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We still have enough petroleum. In some sense, TOO MUCH.

Used Midle EastOther

Deep Ocean300~1500m

Ultra Deep1500m～Ice Sea

EOR

Heavy

ShaleOil

Price $/barrel

Reserves vs. Cost for Oil Production

Reserves in Billion Barrel

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World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision

Figure 1: Estimated and projected world population according to

different variants, 1950-2100 (billions)

UN Prospect of Global Population up to 2100 ２

Low

High

Medium

“2052” by Jorgen Randers

“Megachange: The world in 2050

The Economist

Ours

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World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision

Figure 2: Estimated and projected population by major area, medium

variant , 1950-2100 (billions)

Asia

Africa

North America

To b

e F

lat

Projected Population of Regions up to 2100

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Fertility Rate is important

LatinAmerica

AfricaAsia

Oceania

North America Europe

Chapter 2.

Local Sustainability under the influence of

Climate Change

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Typhoon No.30 HaiyanHit Leyte province in the eastern Philippines

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２０日１２時

２２日０９時

２５日０９時

World Economic Forum ダボス会議Global Risks 2013 Eighth Edition

Select 50 risks from 5 fields, Societal, Geopolitical, Economic, Technological and Environmental

10 risks from each field

Total 50 risks with a scope of 10 years from now

An Important Point＝Cognitive Biases「認知バイアス」

Difficult to Overcome

Inevitable to overcome somehow33

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Environmental

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IPCC AR5 WGⅠRelation between

CO2 Emission vs. Temp. Anomaly

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Allowance of

IPCC AR5 WGⅠ

Integrated Assessment Model

Best Available Scenario？

CO2 Emission from Fossil Fuelfor 2050 and 2100

Target: Anomaly below 2.5 ℃

Delay of some Tipping Elements

In order to this, with 9 B of population

In 2050 10 GtC/year Globally

Per capita emission 1.1 ｔC/year/capita

In 2100 4 GtC/year Globally

Per capita emission 0.25 ｔC/year/capita

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cf. Currenly in Japan 2.7 ｔC/year/capita

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Chapter 3. Local Risks

Agricultural Activities and Related Risks

Environmental Risks for Agriculture

Environmental Conditions for Agri.

Water supply・Temperature Change

Essential Elements N、P

Status of Soil

Agrichemicals such as Insecticide or Herbicide

Environmental Changes to be considered

Change accompanied by Climate Change

Limitation of Natural Resources

Water/Soil Change caused by Human Activities

Feelings of Consumers 39

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Amount of Stream Flow 2081 to 2100From IPCC AR5 2013

Issues in Locations

Location and Availability of Water

Stream Flow will be affected by Climate Change

Ground Water has different Characteristics

Turkey, Spain, Portugal, Italy will be dry.

In Japan, not so much difference.

Temperature will affect the most suitable agri. products.

Special Products in the area will be affected.

Apples in Nagano -> Pairs in Nagano?

Grapes and Wineries in Europe already receive some changes.

41In most cases, Some kinds of Adaptations are required.

Water Dependence on Snow or Ice of Glacier

Snow or Ice in winter play role of Reservoir

In spring, water from snow melt used for agriculture

Climate Change -> Early snow melting in winter -> No water reservoir for Agriculture

This tendencies already apparent in Himalayan or Tibetan Region and similar in Andean Area

Adaptation : To construct new water reservoirs for Agriculture

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Fertilizer Issue Nitrogen Fertilizer

Harbor-Bosch Process’s success to make Ammonia from Nitrogen and Hydrogen

Huge Energy Consumption

More than 1% of Global Energy Consumption

Side Effects of Excessive Use=Over-fertilization

Pollutant to Underground Water

Eutrophication(Nutrient Enrichment) of Lake and River Water

Increase N2O(one of GHG) emission from Patty Fields

MUST: Appropriate Use of Nitrogen Fertilizer

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20世紀の人口爆発の原因は穀物単収（単位面積当たりの収穫量）の増加にある

フランスの小麦 出展 Michel & FAO

0

2

4

6

8

1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050

単収

(t/ha)

0

20,000,000

40,000,000

60,000,000

80,000,000

100,000,000

120,000,000

140,000,000

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

The amount of Nitrogen Fixed by Harbor-Bosch Process (ton)

Harbor demonstrated the processin the summer of 1909.

Ammonia was first manufactured on an industrial scale in 1913.And replaced "Chile saltpetre“for munitions used in World War 1 (1914-1918).

川島博之氏提供

So called global population explosion depended onthe increase in grain production, which is expressed in unit crop (t/ha).

French Wheat 出展 Michel & FAO

0

2

4

6

8

1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050

単収

(t/ha)

川島博之氏提供

Phosphorous Fertilizer

P as Phosphate

Inevitable For All Plants: To be used Nucleic Acids, ATP and membrane lipids.

Guano from Nauru, Depleted : Guano is a highly effective fertilizer due to its exceptionally high content of nitrogen, phosphate, and potassium, three nutrients essential for plant growth

P : Exist as a major component of the Earth. No.11 in the scale of abundance.

F : Coexisting F may be a problem. F is No.12 in the scale of abundance.

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Natural Abundance of Elements, Top 17

１位 酸素 Oxygen ４６％

２位 ケイ素 Silicon ２８％

３位 アルミニウム Aluminum ８％

４位 鉄 Iron ５％

５位 カルシウム Calcium ４％

６位 ナトリウム Sodium ３％

７位 カリウム Potassium ２％

８位 マグネシウム Magnesium ２％

９位 チタン Titanium ０．５％

１０位 水素 Hydrogen ０．１５％

１１位 リン Phosphorus ０．１％

１２位 マンガン Manganese ０．１％

１３位 フッ素 Fluorine ０．１％

１４位 バリウム Barium ０．０５％

１５位 炭素 Carbon ０．０３％

１６位 ストロンチウム Strontium ０．０３％

１７位 イオウ Sulfur ０．０３％48

Sustainability of Soil

Maintenance and improvement of soil quality in continuous cropping systems is critical to sustaining agricultural productivity and environmental quality.

Asian Rainforest are old and mineral poor whereas the soils of the western Amazon (Ecuador and Peru) and volcanic areas of Costa Rica are young and mineral rich.

Change in Rainfall may affect the status of soil, i.e. mineral contents and contents of organic components.

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Shortage in Food Supply? 1. Insufficient Agriculture Field

More than 1-2m of Sea Level Rise

Large Scale of Loss of Agricultural Land in several countries

Resident Area may be lost. -> Environmental Refugees -> Decrease in Food Supply

Draught in Turkey, Spain, USA, Australia

Production of Wheat and other crops will decrease.

Local Temperature Change

Change in Suitable Crops -> Decrease in Supply

Fields optimum to certain crop move to colder area. Is it possible for farmers to move?

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2. Severe safety requirement by citizens/consumers

GMO Issues for Soy, Corn etc.

Is it Safe?

Any environmental adverse side effects?

Any abrupt change in productivity of crop?

As Japanese consumers, everybody wants to have “Zero Risk” environment without any Agrichemicals.

Yield may be go down.

Even if Agrichemicals are safe for human being, is it safe for insects to help pollination?

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Adaptation with Skilled Forecast

Average Rain Fall = Slight Increase

Temperature will go up to some extent

Agricultural Suitability of certain place will be changed, but the other place will become good land for agriculture.

CO2 concentration increase =Some fertilizing effect

Area of farming land is about half of land suitable for agriculture.

If enough farmers in the new agricultural land, global supply of food will be enough.

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It is a good strategy to have long perspectives

of the global changeas possible as we can, if we try to prepare forunexpected changes of

local situation.

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Theoretical Goal

“To realize Steady State of the Earth in 2100.”

Three Conditions

1:Renewable Resources : Use only the amount renewed naturally.

2:Non Renewable Resources : Use No Energy resources. Recycle all Metals & Minerals perfectly.

3:Environmental Pollutant : Release only the amount within the capacity of the Earth.

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Practical Goal

“ Almost All Energy only from renewable resources”

This will be 90% achievement to the theoretical goal.

It means the life of natural resources will be extended about 10 times.

It can be said, “Human Life Reach A New Stage”.

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Energy Innovation in the PastThe 5th will be the Ultimate One

Energy Innovation from the view point of Human History

1st＝Started to Use Fire 500 thousand Years

2nd＝Use Fossil Fuel from 1800

3rd＝Use Electricity from 1880

4th＝Other than Fossil Fuel＝Nuclear Energy in 1943

＝PV cells, Wind full operation not yet

5th＝Steady State Use 2100 or so56

Energy Balance of the Earth

Solar Energy

xGlobal Energy Consump.

To SpaceReflection

Geothermal

Absorbed

Tidal

Moon

Kinetic EnergyPhotosynthesis

100% Renewable Energy Scenario by WWFhttp://www.wwf.or.jp/activities/lib/pdf_climate/green-energy/WWF_EnergyVisionReport_sm.pdf

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2050 = too early to be realizedNo Technologies for full utilization of unstable electricity

Conclusions

No Possibility of Extinction of Homo-sapience in spite of Limitation of the Earth.

Local Sustainability will be affected by global environmental changes including climate change, limitation of some resources and loss of biological diversities.

Crisis can be averted by prediction and management of environmental risks.

Possible solutions for global environmental issues must be discussed and proposed.

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