algorithm for baseball prediction

BASEBALL PREDICTIONTWITTER PROJECT @HITORNOT_MLB

CONTACT

FB: /JOOYEONK2

E-MAIL: JYSCARDIOID AT GMAIL DOT COM

13年11月20日水曜日

AGENDA

OVERVIEW & OBJECTIVE

PREPARATION FOR TRAINING DATA

ALGORITHM

REAL-TIME DATA RETRIEVING

STRATEGY TO GAIN TWITTER FOLLOWERS

FUTURE WORKS

13年11月20日水曜日

OVERVIEW

CURRENT # FOLLOWERS: 92

TOTAL # OF BROADCASTING : 3 TIMES (SINCE THE MID-PART OF THE WORLD SERIES)

CONCEPT:

I ASSUMED THAT A ‘HIT’ IS MADE IN THE GAME BY THE COLLABORATION BETWEEN BATTER AND PITCHER, AND THEREFORE CONSIDERED THE STATISTICS OF THESE TWO AGENTS.

13年11月20日水曜日

PROVIDING REAL-TIME PREDICTIONS WITH HIGH ACCURACY

• LINEAR REGRESSION, SVR

• AVG, BABIP, K%

• HOME/AWAY, RECENT CONDITION, VS R, L

CREATING VALUABLE SOCIAL NETWORK FOR MYSELF

• BASEBALL LOVERS HANG OUT

• STATISTICS LOVERS GAINING KNOWLEDGE

OBJECTIVE OF THIS PROJECT

GAIN ATTENTION:BIGGER NETWORK

FEEDBACK:BATTER ACCURACY

13年11月20日水曜日

PREPARATION FOR TRAINING DATA

DATA RETRIEVED FROM WWW.FANGRAPHS.COM

1. GET BATTER & PITCHER’S STATS

AVG, K%, BABIP% FOR SEASONAL, RECENT (WITHIN A MONTH), HOME/AWAY,

AND VS RIGHTY OR LEFTY STATS : A TOTAL OF (3*2)*4=24 FEATURES

EX)WWW.FANGRAPHS.COM/LEADERS.ASPX?POS=ALL&STATS=BAT&LG=ALL&QUAL=Y&TYPE=C,

35,23,41&SEASON=2013&MONTH=0&SEASON1=2013&IND=0&TEAM=0&ROST=0&AGE=0&FILTER=&PLAYERS=0

CAN EXPORT THE DATA INTO

CSV FORMAT BY

CLICKING THIS

13年11月20日水曜日

PREPARATION FOR TRAINING DATA

DATA RETRIEVED FROM WWW.FANGRAPHS.COM

2. GET RESULTS

FANGRAPHS.COM → PLAYER’S PAGE → GAME LOG

EX) BATTER:YASIEL PUIG(RIGHTY), PITCHER: JEFF FRANCIS(LEFTY) HOME/AWAY: HOME FOR DODGERS, RESULT: STRIKE OUT

BOTTOM INNING: HOME FOR BATTER

TAKE THIS INFO!

13年11月20日水曜日

PREPARATION FOR TRAINING DATA

DATA RETRIEVED FROM WWW.FANGRAPHS.COM

3. SUM 1 AND 2 TO MAKE FEATURES

EX) YASIEL PUIG VS JOSE FERNANDEZ AT DODGERS STADIUM

SeasonalSeasonalSeasonalSeasonalSeasonalSeasonal Home/AwayHome/AwayHome/AwayHome/AwayHome/AwayHome/Away vs R, Lvs R, Lvs R, Lvs R, Lvs R, Lvs R, L RecentRecentRecentRecentRecentRecent

batterbatterbatter pitcherpitcherpitcher batterbatterbatter pitcherpitcherpitcher batterbatterbatter pitcherpitcherpitcher batterbatterbatter pitcherpitcherpitcher0.324 0.356 23.2 1

AVGBABIP

K% CONSTANT

100 for hit, 0 for out

X=

Y=

13年11月20日水曜日

ALGORITHM FOR PREDICTION

TWO CANDIDATES: SUPPORT VECTOR REGRESSION(SVR) AND LINEAR REGRESSION

OPTIMIZATION FOR SVR (RBF KERNEL): GRID SERACH

MEASUREMENT OF ERROR: MEAN SQUARE ERROR

IN-SAMPLE ERROR: SVR MUCH BETTER THAN LINEAR REGRESSION

OUT-OF SAMPLE ERROR: SVR HAD A SLIGHT EDGE ON LINEAR REGRESSION.

※BASELINE: ALWAYS GIVE 50% FOR PREDICTION REGARDLESS OF THE GIVEN CONDITIONS

Error =1

N

NX

i=1

(yi � pi)2

!

WHERE YI IS THE ACTUAL RESULT AND PI IS THE OUTCOME. BOTH RANGES FROM 0 TO 100

mse Baseline lin-reg svr

in-sample

out-of-sample

2500.0 2229.8 1021.8

2500.0 2258.3 2230.3

13年11月20日水曜日

REAL-TIME DATA RETRIEVAL AND PREDICTION

1. USING THE TEXT DATA BROADCASTED BY WWW.SPORTS.YAHOO.COM/MLB/

2. RETRIEVE LOCATION (HOME/AWAY), CURRENT PITCHER, BATTER’S NAME TO MAKE THE FEATURE SPACE FOR EVERY BAT (EVERY UPDATE)

3. USE TWITTER API TO AUTOMATICALLY REPORT THE RESULT TO TWITTER

FIANL RESULT!

13年11月20日水曜日

STRATEGY TO GAIN TWITTER FOLLOWERS

THE SERVICE WAS LAUNCHED IN THE MIDDLE OF WORLD SERIES BETWEEN THE RED SOX VS THE CARDINALS

THE TARGETS WERE 3 GROUPS: CARDINALS FANS, RED SOX FANS, AND PEOPLE WHO ARE INTERESTED IN STATISTICS AND MACHINE LEARNING

SEARCHING KEYWORDS → FOLLOWING USERS WHO ARE LIKELY TO FOLLOW BACK

USED HASH TAGS SUCH AS #WORLDSERIUS, #STLCARDS, #REDSOX

13年11月20日水曜日