theory of catastrophy

43 3(2009 ): 25~50

*1)

.

.

.

.

[: , , ]

.

50 . , . , . . , , (, 2008:64) .

. . , , . , (Catastrophe Theory) ,

* . .

26 43 3

. , ,

, , , , , . , . . . ,

, . (equilibrium model) (Kiel, 1989:544; , 2008:164). , (linear) . .

. . 20 . , , . ,

. . , . . . ,

. . . , .

27

.

. . (predictability) (controllability) . , .

1.

. . . (Lasswell, 1951; , 1998). , .

. , . ? Prigogine Stengers(1984) . . , . , (principle of the economy of thought) . Guastello(1995:1-3)

28 43 3

. . . . . . (time arrow)

.1) . . . , . , . (reversibility) . .

. . , . , . (overestimate) , (underestimate) .

2.

(, 2004: 44) . , . . , , . , ,

1) . . .

29

, , (Prigogine & Stengers, 1984). , (perturbation wave) (Zeeman, 1974; Rosser, 2000, , 2004). , . ,

. , , , , . . , (, 2008). (time dependant).

, . . ( ) , , . , . ,

. , , . (, 2005: 49-59). , . , .

.

(Ren Thom) (topology) (Thom, 1973, Zeeman, 1976) .2) 20

30 43 3

, (Smith, 1994:274; , 1994:138). , , .

1.

(sudden change) . Concise Oxford Dictionary Kata (down) , Strophe (turning) (Stewart & Peregoy, 1983 ). (normally continuous) . . , , , . , . . ,

, (climax) . . (, 1994: 139). (Cryer & Elton, 1990; Masys, 2004) . ' ' .

. (small change) (radical change)

2) (, topology) 20 , . . . , , . . . . 20 , (catastrophe theory), (bifurcation theory), (chaos theory) .

31

(, 2001: 271). () (transfer) . (Saunders, 1980).

, , , . . (, 1998: 68). , , (, 1980; 1994). (Zeeman, 1976), .3)

2.

1972 R. Thom ,4) E. Zeeman(1973, 1976, 1977) H. J. Sussman(1976, 1978) . .5) . . 1978 Catastrophe Theory and the Study of War .

3) , . . . .

4) Thom . 1966-67 , 1972 (, 1998:2-3). 1960 .

5) Thom , , . 1974 Sussman . , 1978 Behavioral Science .

32 43 3

Lawrence Markus Robert T. Holt Brian L. Job 6) . , (explaining) (description) . , , .7)

. , . , (deus ex machina) . , . (Adelman & Hihn,

1982), (Scott & Sattler, 1983) (Sheridan & Abelson, 1983) . (Smith, 1994), (Kulkoski, 2005) . , , , . , ,

. . (, 1998) (, 2004)

6) Thom . Thom , . ((), 1995).

7) , , . . , 1 2 . , (threshold factor) .

33

. (, 2001), (, 1996). (, 1998, 1999) (, 2008) .

3.

(time flow) , .

. () () () .8) . , . .

(event) . . (Holt, Job, & Markus, 1978). , . . Thom(1975) 7 (elementary catastrophes)

. , (catastrophe point) . ( ) , . Thom

8) . . t t+1 . , .

34 43 3

.9)

(fold) 1 1 1 1

(cusp) 1 2 1 2

(swallowtail) 1 3 3 3

(butterfly) 1 4 2 3

(hyperbolic umbilic) 2 3 3 3

(elliptic umbilic) 2 3 3 4

(parabolic umbilic) 2 4 2 4

: Saunders(1980:41-60) .

7 . . . - (threshold) . , ,

( ) . . (, 1998:80). (butterfly catastrophe) .

.

9) Saunders, P. T. (1980). Cambridge University Press. Guastello, Stephen J. (1995). New Jersey: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates .

35

, . , (Zeeman, 1976: 65-78). (gradient dynamics system) , .

()

()

()

()

(unpredictability)

(inaccessibility & divergence)

(hysteresis)

(diffusion & noise)

: (2008:187)

1.

, , , , . , (topological space) , , , . , , , (, 1998:75). . , (behavioral surface)

. , .

36 43 3

. , , , , . , (control surface) (projection)

. . , () . ,

. (normal factors), (splitting factor), (bias factor), (butterfly factor) , . (bifurcation set) , .

2.

1) (homeostasis) (fast dynamics)

, . (stable state) , (homeostasis) . (ex ante) (ex post) . ( ) . 3

. (Stoney, 1998). , . (Querol, 2002:1029). .

37

. 3(trimodality) . (sudden jump) , (inaccessibility) . , . () , (divergence) . (context) ,

. (, hysteresis) . , () , . (strictly reversible) . . .

2) (noise and diffusion)

. . , (noise) (repeller) , (diffusion) (attractor) . . . . ,

. . . , . , . , ,

.

38 43 3

. . . .

. . , . . . . .

3) (singularity) (feedback)

. . , , . . , (singularity point) .

. , . (elasticity) , , . . . . , .

39

.

. , .

1.

, . . , . , . .

(Emery and Trist, 1965) . . (projection) (catastrophe set). .

. , , . , . . .

. ( )

40 43 3

, , . , . .

. , , . , . , . .

. . , . . , . . , .

. , . . .

. , . . .

41

:

: , ,

:

:

,

4

, . , , , 4 . , . . . , , .

2.

. . , . .

(, 1998: 15). , ,

42 43 3

. . .

. , , . , , , .

. . , . , . . .

. , , ( ), . . , . .

. (vector) (Holt et al., 1978) . , () ( ) . .

43

, , , . . , . , .

. . , , . , . . (, ) .

. , . .

44 43 3

.

3.

, . , . . . .

. . , . . . .

. (narrative fallacy) . , . (, 2008).

. , . . . . , . .

. (the curse of

45

learning) (Taleb, 2007). , . (outlier)

. (the straw that broke the camel's back) (Gilmore, 1996). . , . . (small change)

. , . M. Gladwell(2002) , N. Taleb(2007) . . . ,

((Taleb, 2007: 11). . . . (incremental), (evolutionary) (Guastello, 1995; Rosser, 2000 ). .

4.

, , , , , . . Guastello(1981) (, 1998).

46 43 3

(, 2008). .

. . , . .

. , ( ) . . . ( ) . .

. ( ) , .

: ()

:

47

( ) . , . . ,

, , . . , , . ,

. , , , . . , , ,

. . , , . .

.

( ) , (analytical tool) . , , . , .

48 43 3

. .

. . , . . . . .

. , . , . , . .

. . , , , , . .

. . . .

. (1998). Catastrophe . , 5(3): 67-116.. (2004). : . : .. (1991). . : . . (1980). . : .______. (1994). . , 8: 138-143.. (1998). . , 5(1): 71-92.

49

______. (1999). Catastrophe Theory . . 14: 49-70.. (1998). (2). : .. (2005.) . (SERI). (2004). : Catastrophe Theory

. , 31(1): 107-123.. (2008). : . , 17(4): 63-87.(). (1995). . : . . (2001). . ,

45(): 264-298.. (2008). : .

, 17(2): 182-205.______. (2008). : .

. .. (1996). . , 17(2):

139-152.Adelman, Irma & Hihn, Jairus M. (1982). Politics in Latin America: A Catastrophe Theory Model, Journal of

Conflict Resolution, 26(4): 592-620.Cryer, Patricia & Elton, Lewis (1990). Catastrophe Theory: A Unified Model for Educational Change, Studies in

Higher Education, 15(1):75-86.Emery, F. E. & Trist, E. L. (1965). The Causal Texture of Organizational Environment, Human Relations, Feb.:

21-31.Gilmore, R. (1996). Catastrophe theory: What it is-Why it exists-How it works, AIP Conference Proceedings, 376:

35-53.Gladwell, M. (2002). The Tipping Point: How Little Things Can Make a Big Difference, Little, Brown and

Company (Paperback edition).Guastello, Stephen J. (1995). Chaos, Catastrophe, and Human Affairs: Applications of Nonlinear Dynamics to

Work, Organizations, and Social Evolution, Lawrence Erlbaum Association.Kiel, L. Douglas. (1989). Nonequilibrium Theory and Its Implications for Public Administration, Public

Administration Review, 49(6): 544-551.Kulkoski, Kelly E. (2005). A Cusp Catastrophe Model of College Student Alcohol Use, (Unpublished Doctoral

Dissertation, Marquette University)Lasswell, H. D. (1951). Policy Orientation, in Daniel Lerner and H. D. Lasswell (eds.), Policy Sciences, Stanford

University Press.Markus, Lawrence., Holt, Robert T., & Job, Brian L. (1978). Catastrophe Theory and the Study of War, The

Journal of Conflict Resolution, 22(2): 171-208. Masys, A. J. (2004). Aviation Accident Aetiology: Catastrophe Theory Perspective, Disaster Prevention and

Management, 13(1): 33-38.Pressman, Jeffrey L. & Wildavsky, Aaron. (1984). Implementation: How Great Expectations in Washington Are

Dashed in Oakland, University of California Press.

50 43 3

Prigogine, Ilya & Stengers, Isabelle (1984). Order Out of Chaos, New York: Bantam Books.Querol, Ernest (2002). A New Theoretical Model for the Study of Bilingual Contexts: The Catastrophe Theory,

ACTAS, Proceeding Symposium International Bilingual: 1023-1053.Rosser, J. B. (2000). From Catastrophe to Chaos: A General Theory of Economic Discontinuities, (2nd edition)

Kluwer Academic Publishers, Boston, MA. Samuelson.______. (2000). From Catastrophe to Chaos: A General Theory of Economic Discontinuities, (2nd edition)

Kluwer Academic Publishers, Boston, MA. Samuelson.Saunders, P. T. (1980). An Introduction to Catastrophe Theory, Cambridge University Press.Sheridan, Jhon E. & Abelson, Michael A. (1983). Cusp Catastrophe Model of Employee Turnover, Academy of

Management Journal, 26(3): 418-436.Smith, Thomas Spence (1994). Catastrophes in Interaction: A Note on Arousal-Dependant Discontinuities in

Attachment Behavior, Social Psychology, 57(3): 274-283.Stewart, I. & Peregoy, P. (1983). Catastrophe Modeling in Psychology, Psychology Bulletin, 94: 336-362.Stoney, S. David, Jr. (1998). A Structure for Embodied Human Consciousness, Soc. Neurosci. Abst., 24: 1419.Sussman, Hector J. (1976). Catastrophe Theory: A Preliminary Critical Study, Proceeding of the Biennial Meeting

of the Philosophy of Science Association, Contributed Paper: 256-286. Sussman, Hector J. & Raphael S. Zahler. 1978. Catastrophe Theory as Applied to the Social and Biological

Sciences: A Critique. Synthese, 37:117-216.Taleb, N. Nicholas (2007). The Black Swan: the impact of the highly improbable, Penguin Books.Thom, Rene (1973). Structural Stability and Morphogenesis, New York: Benjamin. Zeeman, E. C. (1976). Catastrophe Theory, Scientific American, April: 65-83. ______. (1977). Catastrophe Theory: Selected Papers 1972-1977. Reading. MA: Benjamin.

: 2008 (: ) , . , , , , (juyongjeong@naver.com)

: 2009 7 15 : 2009 8 20: 2009 9 12

/ColorImageDict > /JPEG2000ColorACSImageDict > /JPEG2000ColorImageDict > /AntiAliasGrayImages false /CropGrayImages true /GrayImageMinResolution 300 /GrayImageMinResolutionPolicy /OK /DownsampleGrayImages true /GrayImageDownsampleType /Bicubic /GrayImageResolution 300 /GrayImageDepth -1 /GrayImageMinDownsampleDepth 2 /GrayImageDownsampleThreshold 1.50000 /EncodeGrayImages true /GrayImageFilter /DCTEncode /AutoFilterGrayImages true /GrayImageAutoFilterStrategy /JPEG /GrayACSImageDict > /GrayImageDict > /JPEG2000GrayACSImageDict > /JPEG2000GrayImageDict > /AntiAliasMonoImages false /CropMonoImages true /MonoImageMinResolution 1200 /MonoImageMinResolutionPolicy /OK /DownsampleMonoImages true /MonoImageDownsampleType /Bicubic /MonoImageResolution 1200 /MonoImageDepth -1 /MonoImageDownsampleThreshold 1.50000 /EncodeMonoImages true /MonoImageFilter /CCITTFaxEncode /MonoImageDict > /AllowPSXObjects false /CheckCompliance [ /None ] /PDFX1aCheck false /PDFX3Check false /PDFXCompliantPDFOnly false /PDFXNoTrimBoxError true /PDFXTrimBoxToMediaBoxOffset [ 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 ] /PDFXSetBleedBoxToMediaBox true /PDFXBleedBoxToTrimBoxOffset [ 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 ] /PDFXOutputIntentProfile () /PDFXOutputConditionIdentifier () /PDFXOutputCondition () /PDFXRegistryName () /PDFXTrapped /False

/Description > /Namespace [ (Adobe) (Common) (1.0) ] /OtherNamespaces [ > /FormElements false /GenerateStructure true /IncludeBookmarks false /IncludeHyperlinks false /IncludeInteractive false /IncludeLayers false /IncludeProfiles true /MultimediaHandling /UseObjectSettings /Namespace [ (Adobe) (CreativeSuite) (2.0) ] /PDFXOutputIntentProfileSelector /NA /PreserveEditing true /UntaggedCMYKHandling /LeaveUntagged /UntaggedRGBHandling /LeaveUntagged /UseDocumentBleed false >> ]>> setdistillerparams> setpagedevice