andy@displaybank com [email protected]/smartkorea/2011/s5_1520.pdf · 2011. 11. 2. ·...

i l d l kDisplay Industry Outlook

Oct. 2011

유종찬 부사장andy@displaybank com

http://www displaybank comhttp://www displaybank com

[email protected]

Copyright© Displaybank Co., Ltd., Confidential Page : 1/100Copyright© Displaybank. Do not copy or distribute. Contents remain the property of Displaybank. 1Copyright© Displaybank. Do not copy or distribute. Contents remain the property of Displaybank.

http://www.displaybank.com

Copyright© Displaybank. Do not copy or distribute. Contents remain the property of Displaybank.

http://www.displaybank.com

Characteristic of Display IndustryCharacteristic of Display Industry

Copyright© Displaybank Co., Ltd., Confidential Page : 2/100Copyright© Displaybank. Do not copy or distribute. Contents remain the property of Displaybank. 2

Display Industry - Waves

Component Shortage

Economic Crisis

LEN

GES

Oversupply

CH

ALL

LED LCD TV

e-ReaderAMOLEDSmart TV

Emerging MarketDigital Broadcasting

3D TVSmart Phone

Smart TVFlexible

NIT

IES

FPTVLCD Monitor

g gMini Note

PPO

RTU

Notebook

OP Mobile Phone


Display Industry - Structure

LCD TV Cost StructureDisplay Industry Structure

22%

Dealer Margin

Sales DeductionSET

7%

Marketing O/H

Marketing Margin

Duty/Procedure

(TV, Monitor, Notebook, Mobile Phone, Tablet PC...)

(TV, Monitor, Notebook, Mobile Phone, Tablet PC...)

6%

8%

y/

Distribution Margin

Distribution O/H

F i hModule

8%

6% Freight

Manufacturer Margin

Manufacturing O/HComponentComponent(BLU, POL, C/F,

32%

Etc.(CKD Pack+Tax ...)

Mechanical sum

Circuit sum

)( , , ,Glass, L/C ...)

Materials42” FHD LCD TV•CCFL•60HzCircuit sum

LCD Module

60Hz•From G7.5•Based on US market


Display Industry - Cycle

Display Industry Cycle

FAB투자FAB투자

Shortage

원가절감기술혁신수요증가 기술혁신

Oversupply

가격하락


Display Industry - Investment PRICE

37.8 Msqm

US$ 1,220

Gen10

Gen8

Gen7

Gen6

Gen5Gen5

Gen4

Gen3US$ 290

Gen2

Gen10.7 Msqm

US$ 135

Q1'04 Q1'05 Q1'06 Q1'07 Q1'08 Q1'09 Q1'10 Q1'112004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

US$ 58


Q1 04 Q1 05 Q1 06 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 112004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

(Source : ‘Large Area TFT-LCD Panel Supply & Demand Analysis‘, Displaybank)

Display Industry - Market Growth

140.0 800.0

TFT-LCD Market(Munits) (Bil.US$ & Msqm)

100 0

120.0

600.0

700.0

80.0

100.0

400 0

500.0

Unit(Mpcs) 左

40 0

60.0 300.0

400.0 Amount(Bil.US$)

Area(Msqm)

右

右

20.0

40.0

100.0

200.0

0.0 0.0

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20112004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 CAGR(04~11)

U i (M ) 139 1 206 6 278 9 393 9 438 6 528 3 665 9 727 9 27%Unit (Mpcs) 139.1 206.6 278.9 393.9 438.6 528.3 665.9 727.9 27%

Amount (Bil.US$) 34.8 41.7 52.6 72.4 72.7 62.2 83.0 78.2 12%


Area (Msqm) 11.2 20.3 33.3 53.9 64.5 80.7 108.9 114.6 39%(Source : ‘Large Area TFT-LCD Panel Supply & Demand Analysis‘, Displaybank)

The Latest Display Market TrendThe Latest Display Market Trend


Regional Market Status

Western Europe North America (inc.. Canada & Mexico)

• 2010년 월드컵 이후 수요 급감

• 유로지역 악순환 반복

• 2008년 금융 위기 이후 소비 심리 위축

• 신용등급 하락 및 거시경제 지표 악화

• TV 시장 성장 정체 (37M 수준)유로화강세

• 유로존 국가의 재정위기 확대(그리스 스페인 이탈리아)

• TV 업체 손익 악화에 따른 소극적인 프로모션

• Premium TV의 판매 부진TV 업체들 적자-> 소극적 프로모션

TV 판매 부진

• 유로존 국가의 재정위기 확대(그리스, 스페인, 이탈리아)

• 중국정부 인플레이션을 우려한 경기 부양책 축소 • 빠른 성장은 하고 있으나, 전체 수요를 반등시키기엔 역

Emerging MarketsChina A.P., MEA, L.A. & Eastern Europe

• 가전하향, 이구한신 등 정부 소비지원 정책 종료

• 도시지역 LCD TV 수요 성숙기 진입

• 농촌지역 구매력 여전히 부족

부족

• 가격 최우선의 소비형태 지속

• 저가형 LCD TV 중심 (소형 & CCFL)• 농촌지역 구매력 여전히 부족

• 부동산 침체에 따른 소비 축소

저가형 LCD TV 중심 (소형 & CCFL)

• TV 업체들은 손익 악화에 따른 공격적인 가격인하 지양


Profit Shrinks

40.0%

60.0%

0 0%

20.0%

‐20.0%

0.0%Samsung

LGD

AUO

‐60.0%

‐40.0% CMI

CPT

HannStar

‐100.0%

‐80.0%

‐120.0%

Q1'02 Q1'03 Q1'04 Q1'05 Q1'06 Q1'07 Q1'08 Q1'09 Q1'10 Q1'11


(Source : Company IR, Q2.2011)

Recovery is Slow

80%

100%

8%

10%

60%

80%

6%

8%

WW Real GDP

Yo

DP

)

40%4%

oY(%

, LCD

W

W R

eal G

D

0%

20%

0%

2% YoY (LCD shipment)

Shipment)Y

oY(%

, W

‐20%‐2%

‐40%‐4%Q1'06 Q1'07 Q1'08 Q1'09 Q1'10 Q1'11


(Source : ‘Monthly Large Area TFT-LCD Panel Shipment Data’, Displaybank, Jun. 2011 / ‘World Economic Outlook’, IMF, Apr. 2011)

Oversupply of Panel Continues

50%Worldwide TFT LCD Panel Demand & Supply

30%

40%

Over SupplyOver Supply

20%Demand

Supply

10%Glut

0 ~ 0 ~ 8%8%0% Balance Balance

‐10%

Q1'04 Q1'05 Q1'06 Q1'07 Q1'08 Q1'09 Q1'10 Q1'11 Q1'12


(Source : ‘Large Area TFT-LCD Panel Supply & Demand Analysis ‘, Displaybank, Jun .2011)

Changes in Business Environment

Industrial Ecosystem • Global Localization • Emergence of China • Horizontal Integration• Horizontal Integration

Core CapabilityCore CapabilitySophisticationDiversification

Differentiation &

External Factors • Raw Material• Natural disaster

ProtectionTechnology • Touch/LED• Next-generation Tech.

• Currency Exch. RateNext generation Tech.

• IP


Display Market ForecastDisplay Market Forecast


WW TV Market Forecast by Technology(Mil Units)(Mil. Units)

18%16%

18%

20%

250 0

300.0

12%

14%

16%

200.0

250.0

CRT TV

OLED TV

6%

8%

10%

100 0

150.0

OLED TV

RPTV

PDP TV

LCDTV

2%3%

0%

2%3%

4% 4%

0%

2%

4%

50.0

100.0 LCD TV

YoY

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

0%

‐2%

0%

0.0

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

LCD TV 101.5 142.9 187.9 203.4 220.9 236.6 250.3 260.3

PDP TV 13.9 14.2 18.5 17.0 15.3 13.8 12.5 11.2

RPTV 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0RPTV 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

OLED TV 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 2.6 6.3

CRT TV 85.4 50.2 37.2 22.7 11.6 5.3 1.8 0.5

Total 201.3 207.4 243.8 243.2 248.0 256.4 267.2 278.4


Total 201.3 207.4 243.8 243.2 248.0 256.4 267.2 278.4

YoY 2% 3% 18% 0% 2% 3% 4% 4%

(Source : ‘Monthly FPD TV Shipment Data‘, Displaybank)

WW TV Market Forecast by Region

80%

90%

100%

Western Europe

Advanced market

50%

60%

70% North America

Japan

China

20%

30%

40% Middle East and Africa

Latin America

Eastern Europe

0%

10%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

p

Asia Pacific

(Mil. Units)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 CAGR(10~15)

Asia Pacific 34.5 32.3 34.5 36.5 40.7 42.7 45.5 48.4 7%

Eastern Europe 15.3 11.3 16.5 17.0 18.6 19.7 20.5 21.2 5%

Latin America 21.9 18.5 25.2 26.3 28.4 29.1 29.7 30.4 4%Middle East and Africa 11.2 11.8 15.0 16.0 17.8 18.6 19.3 20.0 6%

China 41.2 42.7 43.6 45.9 50.6 54.5 57.7 60.1 7%

Japan 9.7 13.7 23.8 18.5 8.1 7.5 8.0 8.9 -18%

North America 36.6 41.5 42.7 41.9 42.3 42.7 43.4 44.9 1%

Western Europe 30.9 35.7 42.4 41.2 41.6 41.7 43.1 44.5 1%


201.3 207.4 243.8 243.2 248.0 256.4 267.2 278.4 3%

(Source : ‘Monthly FPD TV Shipment Data‘, Displaybank)

WW IT Application Market Forecast

(Mil. Units)

300.0

350.0

(Mil. Units)

200 0

250.0

150.0

200.0 Monitor

Notebook

Tablet PC

50.0

100.0

0.0

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20152008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 CAGR(10~15)

Monitor 163.6 166.3 174.8 177.6 181.1 187.6 194.7 200.0 3%Monitor 163.6 166.3 174.8 177.6 181.1 187.6 194.7 200.0 3%

Notebook 123.9 165.4 202.2 213.0 229.9 249.4 279.0 299.8 8%

Tablet PC 16.9 62.0 94.3 122.0 145.0 162.4 57%


(Source : ‘Large Area TFT-LCD Panel Supply & Demand Analysis‘, Displaybank)

Competiveness Reinforcement StrategiesCompetiveness Reinforcement Strategies

LCD P l/E d P d t• LCD Panel/End Products

• Parts/Materials

• Patent

• Post LCD


LCD Panel/End ProductsLCD Panel/End Products


New Application - Personal Mobile Application

Smartphone Market (Mil. Units)

10.1"<9 7" 145

162

Tablet PC Market (Mil. Units)1,034

916

iPad Tablet PC

9.7"8.9"8"<7" 62

94

122768

595

425288

195

Kindle2

R d

Tablet PC

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

17

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

195148

e-ReaderSony Reader Kindle

Smart Phone

+ DesignTouch

Mobile Phone

+ Design(Fold, Slide, Slim...)

+Function(Camera, MP3, DMB ...)

DSC, MP3, PMP, Car Navi ...


DSC, MP3, PMP, Car Navi ...(Source : ‘The Evolution of Tablet PC - Product Roadmap & Technology’, Displaybank, Dec. 2010)

S/M Application - Mobile Phone, Tablet PC

• Display Device • Network100 MbpsIntroduction Improvement New Device

AMPS

CDMAGSMTDMA

WCDMACDMA2000

LTETFT

AMOLED Flexible

TDMA

10kbps

CSTNMSTN

CPU P f UI/UX

Voice Voice, SMS Video Call, Internet Multimedia

1G 2G 3G 4G‘00 ‘02 ‘04 ‘09

• CPU Performance • UI/UX

Clock Speed1Ghz

1.3 Ghz1.5 Ghz

Killer Service

# of Core

1Ghz

SingleDual

Quad

Camera Touch

Killer Service

LBSAR

SNSProcess

65nm45nm

40nm28nm SNS


PresentGPS Gyro & Acceleration

Premium Product - High Resolution (IPS, FFS, PLS)

4.7” 1280x720AMOLED

3.5” 960x640IPS

9 7” 2048x15364” 960x540

300PPI

9.7 2048x1536IPS

4 960x540

4.3” 800x480AMOLED

3.8” 800x480

AMOLED

200PPI

10.1” 1280x800PLS9 7” 1024x768

7” 1024x600

200PPI

PLS9.7 1024x768IPS


Monitor

• Size & Resolution • Price & Profit

◆ 20”WUXGA ◆

◆ 19”

◆ 20”SXGA, WXGA ◆

WUXGA ◆

◆ 17”XGA ◆

Profit

• Features

◆ 15” Price

Features

Speaker Analog TV & I/O Digital TV 3D


TN VA/IPS(Premium) TN(Cost) VA/IPS(Premium)

TV

• Size & Slim • Resolution

◆ FHDDVD DTV & Blue-ray New Contents

◆ > 50mm

◆ 40”◆ 50”

HD

FHD

UD

◆ 50mm

◆ 32”

SD◆ 10

Post LCD

• Premium

◆ < 30”Present

◆ 10mm

Premium

Low Power Consumption1080p

Large Size240Hz

Finger Slim120Hz

Low Power Consumption

Slim Bezel

Form FactorForm Factor Picture QualityPicture Quality Design & EcoDesign & Eco ContentsContents

New TechNew Tech ConvergenceConvergenceNetworkNetworkFull HDUltra Slim

LED BLU


Form FactorForm Factor Picture QualityPicture Quality Design & EcoDesign & Eco ContentsContents

Parts/MaterialsParts/Materials


Touch… PROCAP* Era

PROCAP % in Total Touch Technology (Area base)

2013

PROCAP,11%

PROCAP,52%

PROCAP,62%

20092011

2013

Other Other

Other Tech, 38%

PROCAP % in Mobile Phone (Area base)

OtherTech, 89%

OtherTech, 48%

PROCAP,32%

PROCAP,74%

PROCAP,87%Other

Other Tech, 13%

20112013

32% 87%OtherTech, 26%

2009

OtherTech, 65%


* PROCAP: Projected Capacitive Touch Technology

Touch… Tablet PC Impact

Tablet PC % in Total Touch Device (Area base)

Tablet PC,1%

Tablet PC,22%

Tablet PC,27%

2013

Other OtherOther

20092011

2013

OtherDevices, 99%

OtherDevice, 78%

Devices, 73%

Tablet PC % in Total PROCAP (Area base)

Tablet PC,0%

Tablet PC,43%

Tablet PC,43%0% 43%

20112013

Other PROCAP

2009

Other PROCAPD i 57%

Other PROCAPDevices, 57 %


* PROCAP: Projected Capacitive Touch Technology

Other PROCAPDevices, 100% Devices, 57% Devices, 57 %

Touch… PROCAP’s Era and Ultimate Expandability

PROCAP Touch Gloves Introduced in Market

North Face Gloves Fleece Gloves Etre Touchy

“Don’t press, but touch it”‘SOFT & MULTI TOUCH’ Era Begun


Changes in Value Chain

Product FlowNegotiation

TV B d

SET Module Components

TV Brand(Manufacturing,

ODM/OEM)

LCM (Module)Panel (Cell)

BLU(Components)

LCD Panel & Module

LCM (Module)

TV BrandsSamsung, LGSony, Sharp,

Toshiba, Panasonic,

LCD Panel & ModuleSamsung, LGDAUO, CMI, CPT

Sharp, Panasonic LCDBOE, IVO, CSOT

…BLULGPToshiba, Panasonic,

Vizio, Changhong, TCLSkyworks, Hisense

Konka, Haier,…

…

LCM OEMCoretronic, Radiant

Taesan LCD, DS LCD, DID,Chilin Tech, Darwin

LGPBLU Films

Light Source (LED, CCFL)Chassis

PolarizerTV ODM/OEMSTPV, Foxconn

Funai, Vestel, Amtran, Wistron,…

Chilin Tech, Darwin…

TV Makers’ Internal LCM/JVChina TV Makers

PolarizerDriver IC

Power Circuit

Others


PatentPatent


Changes in Corporate Patent Strategy Paradigm

Patent War (Hegemony War)1 3 US Patent Registration Rank (USP TOP50, 2010)( g y )

- Patent lawsuit is considered as a part of business- Smartphone : Apple ↔ Samsung(2011.5)- LED Lighting : Osram ↔ Samsung, LG(2011.6)

1 3- Increased by 31%, compared to 2009 (219,614 patents)- TOP1 IBM(5,896 +20%), TOP2 SEC(4,551 +26%) - Apple(+94%), Qualcomm(+84%), NEC(+74%), 3M

Innovative(+53%), LG Electronics(+40%), etc.Innovative( 53%), LG Electronics( 40%), etc.

Defensive Strategy to P t t B i Offensive Strategy

Business Tool for I d d tProtect Business Offensive Strategy

(Value Creation) IndependentProfit Creation (Patent = Product)

NPEs* Non-selective Attack2 4 Reinforcement of Corporate Patent NPEs Non selective Attack - Recent patent lawsuits increased to 500 cases.- Number of NPE Lawsuits(2010) : Apple(20), Sony(13), Samsung(12), Motolora(11), LG(15), Panasonic(6), Nokia(5), HTC(11) Toshiba(7) etc <source: patentfreedom>

2 4 pStrategy in Business Perspectives- Organic relation of “Business = R&D = Patent”

strategy- Strategic patent application and establishmentHTC(11), Toshiba(7), etc. <source: patentfreedom>

* NPEs : Non-Practicing Entities(sometimes called Patent Trolls)

Strategic patent application and establishment of effective portfolio.

- Securing of competitive patents and strategic use


Establishment of Effective Patent Portfolios

• Reinforcement of patent-based activities to enhance product competitiveness and R&D productivity.→ “To carry out “Business=R&D=Patent” strategy.→ Establishment of patent activity system according to R&D phase is prerequisite

(※ To secure highly competitive patents)

•Prior Art Search“Business=R&D=Patent” Strategy

Feasibility•Analysis(Patent Mapping)•Patent Application Plan

Business Strategy

R&DStrategy

R&D

•Patent Application(Acquiring)•Project Patent Strategy

Strategy Strategy

Securing, maintenance and use of patentsCommerci-

alization

•Patent Portfolio Review•Patent Strategy for Business•Patent Issue Analysis

Patent Strategy(Building Patent Portfolio)


Post LCDPost LCD


Future Display - AMOLED Investment

2011 2012 2013

5.5G – Ph1 Ph2 Ph3

8.5G – Pilot Ph1 Ph2

4.5G – Ph1

8.5G – Pilot Ph1

3G

4 5G4.5G

5.5G

4.5G – Pilot

5.5G

4.5G – Pilot

4.5G – PilotM.P or fixed plan


TBDp

(Source : ‘Large-area AMOLED Technology, Investment Trend Analysis & Market Forecast‘, Displaybank, Jun. 2011)

Future Display - AMOLED Market

(Bil US$)

4.3” - Galaxy S2 7”WSVGA demofor Tablet(Samsung)

15” TV(LGE) 31” TV(LGD)

(Bil.US$)

350%

400%

16.0

18.0 16.5

250%

300%

10.0

12.0

14.0

Large9.6

12.9

100%

150%

200%

6.0

8.0

10.0 Large

S&M

YoY

4 0

6.8

0%

50%

100%

0.0

2.0

4.0

0.6 0.9

4.0


2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

(Source : ‘Large-area AMOLED Technology, Investment Trend Analysis & Market Forecast‘, Displaybank, Jun. 2011)

Future Display - Transparent Flexible Display

350 (Bil.US$)

Transparent iPhone(Apple) Transparent Public Display(ETRI)Embedded Window Display(ETRI)

250

300 Transparent (Non-Flexible)

150

200

Flexible (Non-Transparent)

Transparent Flexible

100

150

Flat Panel Display (Non-Transparent, Non-Flexible)

( p )

0

50

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Flat Panel Display (Non Transparent, Non Flexible)


2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

(Source : ‘Transparent Display Technology and Market Forecast’, Displaybank, Apr. 2011)

Technical Issues for Future Display

Flexible DisplayFlexible Display Transparent DisplayTransparent Display AMOLED DisplayAMOLED Display


Summary - Competiveness Reinforcement Strategies

Changes in Business Environment• Industrial ecosystem, Technology, External factors

LCD Panel/Module • Focusing on premium product • New application is new marketNew application is new market

Specification Changes of End Products - S/M Application, Monitor, TV

Parts/Materials• PROCAP Touch’s era and ultimate expandability• Changes in value chain

Patent • Establishment of effective patent portfolios (Business=R&D=Patent)

Post LCD Post LCD• Future display market is growing• Concentrate on main technical issues


Thank youEnd of ReportEnd of Report

Thank you End of ReportEnd of Report

Copyright© Displaybank Co., Ltd., Confidential Page : 39/100Copyright© Displaybank. Do not copy or distribute. Contents remain the property of Displaybank. 39Copyright© Displaybank. Do not copy or distribute. Contents remain property of Displaybank. Copyright© Displaybank. Do not copy or distribute. Contents remain the property of Displaybank. Copyright© Displaybank. Do not copy or distribute. Contents remain property of Displaybank. Copyright© Displaybank. Do not copy or distribute. Contents remain the property of Displaybank.

About Displaybank - Research CoverageAbout Displaybank - Research Coverage

{ }PANEL / MODULE Shipment Trend & ForecastShipment Trend & Forecast SETp

Price Trend & Forecast

Supply/Demand Trend & Forecast

Cost Comparison/Analysis

p

Price Trend & Forecast

Supply/Demand Trend & Forecast

Cost Comparison/Analysis

• LCD Panel• PDP Module• OLED Panel

• TV• Monitor• e-Reader• Notebookp / y

Supply Chain Analysis

p / y

Supply Chain Analysis

Line Status Analysis by MakerLine Status Analysis by MakerCOMPONENT /

Notebook• Tablet PC• Public Information

Display

COMPONENT / Corporate Analysis and Investment Trend

Development Strategy by Maker

Roadmap Analysis by Maker

Corporate Analysis and Investment Trend

Development Strategy by Maker

Roadmap Analysis by Maker

COMPONENT / MATERIAL

NEW TECHNOLOGY

• LED• Polarizer• BLU

• Flexible Display• 3D Display• e-Paper Display

COMPONENT / MATERIAL

Tech. Trend and AnalysisTech. Trend and Analysis

Patent AnalysisPatent Analysis

BLU• Touch Panel• Wet Chemical• Organic Materials• Metal Layer• Driver IC

e Paper Display• Transparent Display• Graphene, CNT

Reverse Engineering Analysis(Product Structure & Cost Analysis)Reverse Engineering Analysis(Product Structure & Cost Analysis)

• Driver IC• Glass• Color Filter• Optical Films


About Displaybank - Global OperationsAbout Displaybank - Global Operations

• Global leader in Display industry research and consulting services• With over 10 years of industry-wide research experience, Displaybank provides market intelligence as well as technical research to industry

leadersleaders • Besides end-user market, especially strong in the Component/Material research that is basis of the overall display industry • Headquartered in Korea, the region known as the leader in display industry, Displaybank operates regional offices in Japan, China, Taiwan

and the US.

USA (San Jose) JAPAN (Tokyo) CHINA (Beijing, Shenzhen) TAIWAN (Taipei)Tel : +1‐408‐432‐5046Fax: +1‐408‐432‐5080E‐mail : [email protected]

Tel: +81‐3‐5521‐5088Fax: +81‐3‐5521‐5089E‐mail : [email protected]

E‐mail : [email protected] E‐mail : [email protected]

KOREA (Bundang)8F 801, Korea Design Center 344‐1 Yatap‐dong, Bundang‐gu, Seongnam‐si, Gyeonggi‐do, Korea, 432‐954

Headquarters▶▶▶▶

Tel : +82‐31‐704‐7188, Fax: +82‐31‐704‐7187E‐mail : [email protected] Representative : CEO Peter Kwon


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