beyond the solar module: optimizing system performance and maximizing returns - mars market insights...

Thinking Outside the Module for MaRS Discovery District

Matt Feinstein, Analyst Lux Research, Inc.

July 2011

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Lux Research !   We help clients capitalize on science-‐driven innovation !   We focus on emerging technologies in the chemicals and

materials sector and the energy and environment sector (cleantech)

!   We have practices in China Innovation, Water, Printed Electronics, Green Buildings, Advanced Materials, China Innovation, Solar Components, Solar Systems, Smart Grid & Grid Storage, Electric Vehicles, Alternative Fuels, Bio-‐based Chemicals & Materials, and Targeted Delivery.

!   We have clients on six continents – blue-‐chip corporations, government agencies and laboratories, universities, investors, and SMBs

!   We source our intelligence from direct interaction with CEOs, CTOs, CSOs, and R&D execs at cutting-‐edge technology firms in our sectors of focus

!   We draw on our network to: •  Continuously monitor emerging technologies •  Identify discontinuities in technology commercialization •  Assist with company and technology evaluation

!   We have global reach, with over 50 employees in Boston, New York, Singapore, Shanghai and Amsterdam

!   Research team is 67% scientists, 33% business analysts

Svalbard Global Seed Vault, Norway

Suntech solar factory, China Qatar Science and

Technology Park

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Agenda

!   Why inverters have their time in the spotlight

!   System characteristics differ by market segment – and dictate product requirements

!   A competitive landscape crowded by hype-‐driven start-‐ups

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Agenda


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Inverters are critical to system cost and performance

!   Inverters are the highest single cost in a system other than the module

!   Installers cite power electronics in the majority (60% to 80%) of system failures, or problems requiring maintenance

!   Compromising cost, performance, or reliability make the ideal inverter a pipe dream

!   Start-‐ups have caught the eye of the venture capital space

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Power optimizers add an adjacent wrinkle

!   Positioned at the module or string level

!   Perform maximum power point tracking (MPPT)

!   Usually also possess safety features to prevent array fires

!   Several module-‐level power optimizer companies are integrating into the junction box

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The way things are

!   Centralized power management vs. Module-‐level power management

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Agenda



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System variations result in differing needs

RESIDENTIAL •  1 kW to 10 kW in

size • OJen on pitched

roofs •  Subject to shading

•  Low-‐cost is key •  Customer likely not

well-‐informed •  Performance

predictability not criOcal

COMMERCIAL •  10 kW to 1 MW in size

• OJen on flat roofs •  More variability in shading profile •  Performance

predictability not criOcal – but generally important; energy

harvest guarantees may be in place

•  Wide system size range accompanies high

uncertainty

UTILITY-‐SCALE •  1 MW+

•  Usually in remote locaOons; not subject to shading, but dirt/sand may be blown

onto panels •  Technology selecOon

oJen dictated by financiers – bankable

soluOons •  Performance

predictability is criOcal

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Key issues pertaining to cost, performance, and reliability

!   Levelized cost of electricity (LCOE; $/kWh) is the most telling cost metric

!   System-‐level performance factor accounts for added energy harvest and uptime

!   Grid-‐friendly features, or compatibility with the Smart Grid

!   Component substitutions/eliminations; cooling mechanisms •  Transformers -  Regulations are the concern

•  Capacitors -  Electrolytic vs. thin-‐film -  “The weak link”

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Contrasting performance in commercial systems

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Contrasting LCOE in commercial systems

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Reliability is broad – and difficult to communicate

!   Warranties are a function of financial risk – and full of legal nuance

!   Mean time between failures, failure rates, etc.

!   Few metrics (if any) account for the different number of devices required

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Agenda



!   A competitive landscape crowded by hype-‐driven start-‐ups

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The field of start-‐ups is blurry

!   The burden of proof

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The way things are

!   Centralized power management vs. Module-‐level power management

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Outlook

!   Don’t believe the microinverter hype…mostly

!   A Darwinian market emerges

!   Multiple-‐sourcing continues to rule

!   Reliability will remain the hot issue

!   The wild card is…

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Questions?

Matt Feinstein Analyst

[email protected]

Sun Edison Services, Inc. - confidential & proprietary. Do not redistribute.

SOLAR ENERGY SERVICES AS RELIABLE AS THE SUN

MaRS Market Insight: Beyond the Solar Module: Optimizing System Performance & Maximizing Returns

July 20th 2011 Oleg Popovsky Manager, Sales & Bus. Development


Solar Investors / Developers / Hosts / Integrators

  How to increase returns from solar energy?

  How to verify performance data?

  How to ensure / increase bankability?

  How to lower operational risks?

  How to protect asset longevity?

Sun Edison Services, Inc. - confidential & proprietary. Do not redistribute. 22

  Our Mission: Make solar energy a meaningful source of energy by

  Increasing power plant production   Increasing financial benefits to our customers   Impacting both the environment & local economy

  We commission, monitor, maintain, operate solar PV power plants globally

  North America: 520 plants / 188MW   EMEA 31 plants / 129MW   Asia: 8 plant / 1MW   Largest plant: 71MW   Average plant: 330kW   Smallest plant: 16kW   Solar Energy Generated & Monitoring:

  Surpassed 600,000,000 kWh of solar energy *: Data as of 6/30/11 **: Customers can call 24/7 service – during after hours ROC staff is on-call in case immediate attention is needed.

SunEdison Solar Services


Examples of plants we manage A diverse portfolio of plant configurations, sizes and technologies

City of San Diego - 1.1 MW - San Diego, CA Crystalline panels, fixed tilt, ground-mount on steel.

Kohl’s - 409 KW - Laguna Nigel, CA Crystalline panels, fixed tilt, roof mount.

Duke Energy- 3.9 MW – Cotton Grove, NC Crystalline panels, one axis, ground mount.

72 MW - Rovigo, Italy. Crystalline panels, fixed tilt, ground mount. Largest being built in Europe.

8.2 MW - Alamosa, CO Crystalline panels, fixed, one-axis & dual-axis trackers, ground mount.

Staples - 486 KW - Killingly, CT Thin film panels, fixed tilt, roof mount.


Solar Monitoring   SEEDS™ revenue-grade monitoring platform (Hardware)   Renewable Operations Center (Service)   Online monitoring portal “Client Connect” (Portal)

Solar Operations & Maintenance   Site Quality Inspection   Preventative maintenance and outage response   Cleaning and vegetation control


OPR (Operating Performance Ratio): solar plant performance – simplified   OPR = Energy produced / Energy expected to be produced given actual insulation &

temperature conditions measured on-site.

Solar Monitoring Objective: OPR


SEEDS™ monitoring platform Main hardware components

Component Function

SEEDS™ gateway Collect and store data from meters, weather stations, inverters, combiners, trackers, etc.

Electric meter Measure energy, power, reactive power, voltage, current, frequency, etc.

SEEDS™ weather station Measure irradiance, cell temperature, ambient temperature, wind speed, etc.

Modem Connect the SEEDS™ Gateway to our data center. Cellular, broadband or satellite may be used.

Ethernet or fiber switch Enable local communication between all the devices on-site and the SEEDS™ Gateway.

Enclosure Protect SEEDS™ Gateways, modems and switches from the elements.


Renewable Operations Center (ROC) Tracking and increasing solar plant performance

Commissioning:   Commission Monitoring Systems   Validate system performance   Prepare reports for Independent

Engineers & Technical Advisor firm.

Power plant monitoring and alerting:   Detect & diagnose outages   Identify underperformance   Contact owners / operators

Service dispatch and management:   Create & manage service tickets   Dispatch service crews   Confirm problem resolution

Analysis:   Fleet / portfolio performance   Performance by technology   Soiling analysis

Sun Edison Services, Inc. - confidential & proprietary. Do not redistribute. 28

Real-time, auditable solar production monitoring in 15-minute intervals

Portfolio management to track solar assets by geography

Performance metrics measure environmental impact

Gain transparency into FIT revenue from solar

Client Connect - online monitoring portal Essential PV data at your fingertips


Solar Monitoring   SEEDS™ revenue-grade monitoring platform   Renewable Operations Center   Online monitoring portal “Client Connect”

Solar Operations & Maintenance   Site Quality Inspection   Preventative maintenance and outage response   Cleaning and vegetation control


Keys to maintaining system performance

  Semi-annual system cleaning

  Semi-annual mechanical/electrical checks

  Solar monitoring and analysis to analyze production, diagnose problems and ensure timely repair

  Preventative maintenance and repair

–  inverter maintenance

–  thermal imaging of power conditioning components

–  dispatch of local repair services as needed

  Product operation & maintenance to ensure warranties are upheld

Goal: Increase returns by driving production

O&M: Key to maximizing on-going solar revenue


  Mechanical PM   13 checklist items   2x per year recommended

  Electrical & inverter PM   16 checklist items   2x per year recommended

  Tracker PM   12 checklist items   2x per year recommended

Preventative maintenance Array, inverters, trackers, combiners, racking, wiring…


  Cleaning can increase production by 30%

  Solar systems can suffer production losses (shading) and permanent damage from vegetation if unattended

Cleaning & vegetation control Increasing production and protecting asset longevity

Not a SunEdison Installation


SunEdison Services: Trusted by financial institutions


Unique expertise with leading commercial clients


Looking to maximize your solar returns?

Contact Us for More Details!

Oleg Popovsky Sales Manager, SunEdison Canada

416-262-7022 [email protected]

Thank you!

Connecting PV to the Grid: Ontario Market Update

MaRS Market Insights

July 20, 2011

www.navigantconsulting.com

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1

Background

Table of Contents

Overview of Navigant

©2011 Navigant Consulting Ltd.

3 What’s Happening

4 One Potential Opportunity

Navigant Consulting is a specialized consulting firm and global leader in renewable energy technology and strategy.

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NCI (1,900 Consultants)

•  Publicly traded since 1996 (NYSE: NCI)

•  2011 revenues - $707 million US

•  40 offices in four countries

Renewable Energy (60 Consultants)

Energy Practice (250 Consultants)

•  Power Systems, Markets and Pricing

•  Business Planning and Performance Improvement

•  Emerging Technologies and Energy Efficiency

Professionals •  60 staff with over 25 years

experience in RE •  Exceptional depth and

breadth of market & technology expertise

•  Recognized thought leaders committed to RE

Global Practice •  Over 150 RE

engagements worldwide in last 3 yrs

•  Public and private sector clients in over 10 countries

Navigant Consulting named "Best Advisory

– Renewable Energy" in the 9th and 10th

Annual Environmental Finance and Carbon

Finance Market Survey

Introduction: Navigant Consulting


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For PV, wind, biomass and other clean and renewable energy sources, we serve financial investors, utilities, private companies and governments in due diligence, corporate strategy and policy.

Introduction: PV, Wind, Biomass and other Renewable Energy Service Offering

Clients and Service Offerings

Financial Investors

•  Project due diligence

•  Manufacturing due diligence

•  Risk analysis •  Market analysis/

due diligence •  Management

team due diligence

Utilities

•  New business models

•  Entry strategy •  Technology and

market assessments

•  Renewable program development/ implementation

•  RPS compliance

Government / Agencies

•  Policy support •  Procurement

support •  Public funding

opportunities •  Program design •  Economic

development support

Private Corporations

•  Corporate strategy

•  Profit pool and value chain analyses

•  Mergers and acquisitions


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Background





Tremendous response to OPA FIT program has created generation connection capacity constraints across Ontario

•  Ontario transmission and distribution system designed to deliver electricity from central generation plants to customers

•  Tremendous response to FIT program has put new stresses on system that were not foreseen when system was designed and constructed

•  Given its expansive service territory and suitability for wind and PV, Hydro One received significant portion of connection requests

•  Given the topology of Ontario’s electricity system, constraints on Hydro One transmission and distribution network can cascade down to Local Distribution Companies (LDCs)

Confidential and Proprietary, ©2011 Navigant Consulting Ltd. Do not distribute or copy

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Background

There are three primary system constraints; in simple terms the available capacity is driven by the most restrictive of these constraints


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Current Situation: Available Connection Capacity

Thermal Capacity reflects how much current the

wires can carry

Short Circuit Capacity reflects how much fault current the various system components (eg, circuit breakers, etc.) can handle

Reduces connec*on capacity by ~9,000 MW

Minimum Load is generally driven by transformers than cannot “run backwards” (eg, supplying power upstream instead of downstream)

Reduces capacity by ~5,000 MW

Es*mated available connec*on capacity on en*re Hydro One system*

* Navigant estimate based on information from Hydro One website, does not reflect network topology effects

NB. Other constraints and conOngency consideraOons would likely reduce this capacity further

The generation capacity wanting to connect significantly exceeds the available connection capacity on the system


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* Navigant estimate based on information from Hydro One and OPA website

Current Situation: Available Connection Capacity versus Connect Requests

Available connec*on capacity vs. connec*on capacity requested

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1

Background





Hydro One and industry are working collaboratively to better understand and address the constraints •  Hydro One and CanSIA have established a Working Group and have jointly retained a

consultant to explore contribution of PV to short circuit levels. Inverter manufacturers are also involved

•  Hydro One is said to be revisiting its “7% rule” (microFIT DG cannot exceed 7% of maximum load) and will be releasing its findings shortly —  This rule reflects Hydro One’s interpretation of an IEEE standard and provides a safe

uniform level for application across Hydro One network —  Going beyond “safe uniform level” would require tremendous resources and detailed

local information, neither of which are readily available

•  CanSIA has proposed an inverter workshop so all parties can better understand the performance characteristics of inverters —  Proposed testing of inverters under different circumstances

•  Growing recognition of high voltage issues and impacts on inverter operation


What’s Happening

Industry knows more now than it did a year ago; will know even more a year from now

It’s very complicated! 45

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Background





Minimum load constraints reflect inability of many Hydro One transformers to handle “reverse flow”. But, PV output is generally lowest at times of minimum load


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Potential Opportunity: Coincidence of PV Output and Feeder/Transformer Loading

Illustra*ve bus loading vs. PV output (spring day)

The “7% Rule” (PV = 7% of maximum feeder loader) provides a significant safety margin against reverse flow


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Dura*on curve of bus loading vs. simultaneous PV output (@7% of peak) over full year (8760 hours)

PV output always significantly less than load even in low demand periods for this par*cular bus

8-fold increase in PV capacity to 56% of maximum feeder loader would result in some reverse flow hours, but not many


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Dura*on curve of bus loading vs. simultaneous PV output (@56% of peak) over full year (8760 hours)

PV output exceeds load for only 28 hours in en*re year

For this bus, 28 MW increase in PV capacity could be enabled through “Smart Grid” technology that

1) monitors load and PV output, and 2) controls PV connecBon to eliminate reverse flow as necessary

How much would you be willing to pay if this allowed you to connect your project?

Conclusions

•  Tremendous response to OPA FIT program has created generation connection capacity constraints across Ontario

•  Available connection capacity is driven by the most restrictive of several constraints (thermal, short circuit, minimum load and others)

•  The capacity of the generation wanting to connect significantly exceeds the available connection capacity on the system

•  Hydro One and industry are working collaboratively to better understand and address the constraints

•  Many opportunities for “smart” solutions to enable connections beyond “safe uniform” level, but solutions need to be bulletproof


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It’s very complicated!

Connecting PV to the Grid: Ontario Market Update

Questions?

www.navigantconsulting.com

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Todd Williams Managing Director Direct: 647-288-5204 Cell: 613-544-7941 E-mail: [email protected] 1 Adelaide Street East, Suite 3000 Toronto, Ontario M5C 2V9

Contact Information


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