2010-8-3

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US DDGS Workshops 美国DDGS研讨会

Presented by Gavilon, LLC

US DDGS Overview 美国DDGS概况

1. US Supply and Demand 美国DDGS供求概况

Production Capacity 产能Domestic Consumption 国内消费Exports / Export Demand 出口需求

2. Factors affecting DDGS price and supply 影响DDGS价格及供应的因素

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U.S. Ethanol Map (April 2010)Production Capacity美国燃料酒精企业生产能力地图

（截止2010年4月）

210 Nameplate Refineries 名义上有210家燃料酒精厂

‐Ethanol Production Capacity of 13,176 MGY‐DDGS Production Capacity of 39.5 MMT30.5 MMT DDGS Produced in 2009燃料乙醇产能为131.76亿加仑，DDGS产能为3950万吨。2009年DDGS产量为3050万吨。

美国DDGS产量及消费

Domestic Usage 国内消费

• ~82% (~25 million MT in 2009) 占总消费的82%（2009年达到2500万吨）

• An economical partial replacement for corn, soybean meal and di-calcium phosphate:部分替代玉米、豆粕和磷酸二钙

• Beef Cattle : ~63% 肉牛：63%• Dairy: ~15% 奶牛：15%• Swine: ~8% 猪：8%• Poultry: ~14% 禽：14%

Source: USDA

Common US Inclusion Levels美国的常用添加水平

• Beef cattle: 1 pound of DDGS replaces 1 pound of corn up to 40 percent of the ration and generally zero to minimal amounts of soybean meal

• Dairy cattle: 1 pound of DDGS replaces 0.45 pounds of corn and 0.55 pound of soybean meal up to 20 percent of the ration

肉牛：1磅DDGS可替代1磅玉米，配方用量可达40%，但几乎不或很少代替豆粕

奶牛：1磅DDGS可替代0.45磅玉米和0.55磅豆粕，配方用量可达20%

• Swine: 1 pound of DDGS replaces 0.9 pounds of corn and 0.1 pounds of soybean meal of the ration up to 20% of the ration

• Poultry: 1 pound of DDGS replaces 0.5 pounds of corn and 0.5 pounds of soybean meal of the ration up to 10 to 15% of the ration

*Source: USDA and various University Studies

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生猪：1磅DDGS可替代0.9磅玉米和0.1磅豆粕，配方用量可达20%

家禽：1磅DDGS可替代0.5磅玉米和0.5磅豆粕，配方用量可达15%

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Domestic Usage Composition 美国国内DDGS在畜禽饲料中的使用量

24000

28000

32000

Equi

vale

nt

猪

0

4000

8000

12000

16000

20000

2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11

000

Shor

t Ton

s D

DG

S E

Oct. - Sep Crop Year

SwinePoultryBeefDairy

猪

禽

肉牛

奶牛

3 000 000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

US DDGS Exports - GlobalAFRICA & MIDDLE EAST

CENTRAL & SOUTH AMERICA

EUROPE

SO S S

US DDGS Exports by Region 美国DDGS分地区出口量

非洲和中东

中美洲和南美洲

欧洲

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

SOUTHEAST ASIA

SOUTH ASIA

NORTH ASIA

CANADA/MEXICO

8Data Source: Dept of Commerce, US Census Bureau, Foreign Trade Statistics, USGC

东南亚

南亚

北亚

加拿大/墨西哥

Top Ten Importers 前十大DDGS进口地区

`` 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Jan ‐ Feb 2009 Jan ‐ Feb 2010

Partner UOM Qty Qty Qty Qty Qty Qty Qty

1 Mexico 墨西哥 MT 128,271.00 367,386.00 708,216.00 1,188,766.00 1,458,908.00 215,852.00 276,593.00

2 Canada加拿大 MT 105,929.00 123,022.00 318,864.00 793,947.00 803,674.00 91,715.00 163,850.00

3 China中国 MT 0 0 1,150.00 8,505.00 542,299.00 1,253.00 213,042.00

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4 Turkey土耳其 MT 216 416 136,519.00 465,212.00 377,707.00 36,410.00 14,160.00

5 Thailand泰国 MT 12,802.00 38,140.00 59,346.00 183,611.00 297,560.00 39,799.00 29,929.00

6 Korea, South韩国 MT 4,843.00 24,587.00 102,529.00 184,723.00 270,603.00 42,459.00 109,395.00

7 Vietnam越南 MT 19,869.00 17,979.00 58,260.00 117,248.00 254,379.00 10,393.00 77,454.00

8 Japan日本 MT 2,824.00 45,248.00 83,586.00 198,014.00 221,800.00 35,173.00 41,710.00

9 Indonesia印度尼西亚 MT 46,523.00 43,764.00 69,099.00 118,002.00 199,423.00 18,409.00 34,743.00

10 Taiwan台湾 MT 42,249.00 92,824.00 134,404.00 189,451.00 185,894.00 21,509.00 22,258.00

Data Source: Dept of Commerce, US Census Bureau, Foreign Trade Statistics, USGC

DDGS Exports Projection DDGS 出口量预测

单位：千吨

Chinese Demand 中国需求

•Increased exports to China are supporting US DDGS values 中国需求增长支撑美国DDGS 价格

•Industry experts expect China to consume 2 0 illi t i t f DDGS i 2010

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2.0 million metric tons of DDGS in 2010 业内专家预测中国2010年DDGS 消费量将达到两百万吨

•DDGS growth is driven by increased consumer awareness and consistent quality 消费意识的转变和DDGS稳定的质量是驱动DDGS需求增长的动力

Shipment Options 运输工具选择

1. CONTAINERS 集装箱a. More US Origins 货源地选择广b. More Export Locations 发货地选择广c. Less Contamination Possibilities 受污染风险低d. Flexibility in Quantity Purchased 订货量弹性大f. More market participants 市场参与者多

2. VESSEL 大船a. Larger quantities per shipment 每批运量大b. Partial cargo capability (Corn, Meal, DDG) 可与其他谷物拼船c. Flexibility at destination to transportation 目的地转运方式选择灵活d. Increased risks! 风险大e. Fewer Suppliers 供应商少f. Industry concerns on Hazardous Cargo Classification 行业担心被列为危

险品

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Supply Chain 供应链

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Midwest to:West Coast 10-15 DaysGulf Coast ??? DaysEast Coast ??? Days

Ethanol Plants within 75 & 250 miles of major Intermodal transfer points

酒精厂周边75至250英里主要运输中转站

8/3/20108/3/2010 1414

Logistics 物流

Containers 集装箱Rail 铁路

Barge 驳船Vessel 大船

Trucks 卡车

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17 18

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Factors that affect DDGS price and supply 影响DDGS价格及供应的因素

•US Dollar 美元

•Price of Corn 玉米价格

•Price of Soybean Meal 豆粕价格

•Price of Crude Oil 原油价格

P i f Eth l 酒精价格

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•Price of Ethanol 酒精价格

•Ethanol Plant Margins 酒精厂利润

•Transportation Costs 运输成本

-Inland Transport 内陆运输-Ocean Transport 海洋运输

•Domestic Demand 国内需求

•Export Demand 出口需求

Ethanol Margins have continue to be positive but very volatile 酒精厂利润持续

处于成本线上方，但波动较大

$0 50

$0.60

$0.70

$0.80

$0.90

$1.00

$

Ethanol Profitability/returns

($0.30)

($0.20)

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/Gallon

Figure 2. Monthly Price Ratios (dry matter basis): DDGS compared to corn and soybean meal

1 0

1.2

1.4

1.6 Price ratio: DDGS/corn

Price ratio:DDGS/soybean meal

DDGS Price Discovery, Risk Management, and Price RelationshipsDDGS价格预测，风险管理，和与相关产品价格关系

DDGS与玉米和豆粕比价月图

DDGS/玉米比价

DDGS/豆粕比价

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0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

May-95

Sep-95

JanMay

Sep-96

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Sep-97

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Sep-06

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Sep-08

JanMay

Sept--09

Jan

Monthly Prices Ratios (May 1995--February 2010)

Pric

e ra

tio Average price ratio:

DDGS/soybean meal

Price of DDGs equal tocorn or soybean meal

Average Price ratio:DDGS/corn

Source: USDA, AMS, and USDA, ERS Feedgrain Data Base

DDGS/豆粕平均比价

DDGS/玉米平均比价