1

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行业动态

分析员: 布家杰, CFA; 电话: (852) 3698 6318; markpo@chinastock.com.hk;

宁宁; 电话: (852) 3698 6321; nevinning@chinastock.com.hk

中国电动公交车市场 – 2015年录得爆发式增长, 长远增长具可见性, 龙头企业为受益者

尽管大盘回调，中国电动汽车板块在经过了两年的爆发式增长后，仍然吸引很多投资者的关注。但是，市场似乎缺乏专门讨

论中国电动客车的分析。有见及此，我们于这报告中描述了该市场的总体情况，并列出一些投资者应该留意的行业重点。我

们认为，从政府设下的目标来看，国内电动客车市场有维持多年增长的良好基础，预计在中型和大型客车之间，其产品结构

将不断优化。对于补贴的逐步退出和电池相关政策的不确定性，其带来的影响仍然可控。上市的电动客车龙头企业将持续受

益于行业的增长和它们周详的战略计划。

电动客车介绍：目前，中国电动客车主要分为（1）混合动力客车（2）纯电动客车。

纯电动客车由电力驱动，现时被纳入中国的补贴方案中。该客车最常用的电池是锂离子电池。

混合电动客车由电动马达驱动，其内燃机小于一般传统型号。为了实现更高的效率，电池驱动的电动马达允许内燃机在最大

效率的环境下操作。混合动力驱动系统的主要部件包括内燃机（ICE）、发电机、电池组及一个电动马达。若以燃烧的材料

分类，中国的混合动力客车分为1）油电混合动力；2）柴电混合动力客车。若以充电类型分类，它分为插电式混合动力车和

非插入式。由于国家针对非插电式混合动力汽车的补贴已在2013年5月完结，该款汽车已渐渐退出市场，因为汽车制造商和

客户普遍均追随补贴方案。

市场规模庞大，政府目标令人鼓舞，行业将维持健康增长。根据在2015年发布关于加快新能源汽车推广应用的指导意见，国

家电动公交车到2020年将达到20万台。在2015年底，中国只有大约36,000辆电动公共客车（公交车），这意味着这五年内

的年均复合增长率达到41％。假设每轮公交车的补贴平均为50万元人民币（包括中央和地方政府对不同尺寸公交车的购买和

运营的补贴，已考虑了补贴退出的影响），市场总规模将超过千亿元人民币。由于公共交通一般占传统/ 电动公交车终端需

求（公共交通+其他用途）的65％，因此预计在未来五年，电动公交车市场的补贴总规模（保守而言）将超过1,700亿元人民

币。

根据工信部的数据，电动客车2015年总产量同比增长超过310％，而纯电动客车则同比急增584％。该增长强劲的原因，部

分是由于市场忧虑补贴将在2016年完结并提早了下订单，亦部分由于受到政府的2015年底目标推动。展望未来，我们明白

到2015年强劲的同比增速可能会在2016年恢复正常，但虽然如此，年均复合增长率达到40％的 “健康”增长将得到保证，

主要由于：

一）国家在推广公共交通方面的目标（新增和更换）十分进取。根据图1，《新能源公交车推广应用考核办法》考虑到地区

性新增/置换需求，对电动客车在公共交通中的使用量设有详细的目标。地方政府能否达到目标，将很取决于它们收到的油

价补贴，以及取决于它们从中央政府收到的电动公交车运营补贴。

二）“黄标车”替代品带来巨大的市场（不符合汽车排放标准国1、国3的汽油燃料车/柴油燃料公交车）。

三）在中央补贴逐步退出之下，地方政府倾向在最后期限前达到推广目标。

宇通客车[600066.CH]近日公布，1月销量同比增长69.7％（创月度新高），反映增长势头持续，这应有助消除部分市场忧

虑。

2016年2月4日

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INDUSTRY NEWS

Analyst: Mark Po, CFA; Tel: (852) 3698 6318; markpo@chinastock.com.hk;

Nevin Ning; Tel: (852) 3698 6321; nevinning@chinastock.com.hk

China EV Bus Sector – Booming 2015, visible long-term growth, leading plays to benefit

Despite broad market correction, investors’ interests have been drawn to the China EV industry after its explosive

growth in the past two years. However, there seems to be lacking specialized analysis regarding EV bus (客车) seg-

ment in China. In this light, we present a general picture and highlight several critical points of China EV Bus sector in this note. We believe domestic EV bus market is a multi-year growth story under government target, with product struc-ture expected to optimize between mid and large sized buses. Impact of gradual subsidy exit and policy uncertainty over battery used are under control. Leading listed plays would benefit from sector growth and their strategy plan.

Introduction of EV bus: The current China EV bus mainly consists of (1) hybrid electric bus (2) pure electric bus.

Pure electric bus is powered by electricity, and included in the current national subsidy program in China. Most common-ly used battery is lithium-ion battery.

A hybrid-electric bus is powered by an electric motor, and a smaller than normal conventional internal combustion en-gine. To achieve heightened efficiency, battery powered electric motor allows combustion engine to operate at periods of maximum efficiency. Major components of a hybrid drive system include an internal combustion engine (ICE), a gen-erator, a battery pack, and an electric motor. By combustion material, hybrid electric bus in China divides into i) Gas-electric hybrid and ii) Diesel-electric hybrid bus. By charging type, it divides into plug-in hybrid EV(PHEV) bus and non-plug-in type. Since the exit of targeted national subsidy for non-plug in hybrid bus in May 2013, it gradually faded away from the market as automaker and clients followed closely with the subsidy program.

A sizable market under government target, growth to sustain under a healthy way. According to “Implementation opinion on EV promotion in transportation sector” issued by Ministry Of Commerce (MOC) in 2015, national EV public

bus should reach 200,000 units by 2020. There are roughly only around 36,000 EV public bus (公交车) by 2015 end,

implying a five-year CAGR of 41%. Assuming average subsidy of RMB500,000/bus (including central & local subsidy on purchase and operation for different sized public bus, and considering subsidy exit effect), total market size would be over RMB100bn. As public transportation normally accounts for ~65% of end-demand for traditional/EV bus sector, total market size for EV Bus (public transportation + other usage) in next 5 years in terms of subsidy (which is conservative) would be over RMB170bn.

Total output of EV bus grew by +310% YoY in 2015, with pure EV bus surging by 584% YoY, according to MIIT data. The inspiring growth is partially due to the possible rush order upon fear over subsidy exit in 2016, and partially driven by government target by end 2015. Going forward, we understand that strong YoY growth rate in 2015 may have a chance to normalize in 2016 but the 40% CAGR long term “healthier” growth is guaranteed and driven mainly by:

a) aggressive public transportation promotion target (addition & replacement). According to figure 1, “Pilot Evaluation Scheme on EV Public Bus Promotion> has set detailed target for EV public bus usage in public transportation in region-al addition/replacement demand. Whether local government achieves the target is closely linked to the oil subsidy they would receive and EV public bus operating subsidy they would get from central government.

b) ample market for substitution of “yellow sign car” (gasoline-fuel car/diesel-fuel bus that don’t fulfill National-I/National-III emission standard).

c) incentive for local government to achieve promotion target ahead of deadline under gradual exit of central purchase subsidy to be received.

Recent announcement of Yutong Bus [600066.CH]’s January +69.7%YoY sales volume growth (record high on a monthly basis) indicating sustained growth momentum to continue should partly clear market concerns.

February 4, 2015

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PHEV Bus vs. Pure EV: aggressive expansion of pure EV may gradually calm in future. In 2013, pure EV bus only accounted for 16% of total EV bus output, and rose to 49% in 2014. The percentage surged to 78.5% in 2015, as pure EV bus gained further momentum with sales proportion even climbing above 80% in Nov and Dec 2015. Government subsidy’s leaning towards pure EV was the main reason behind its rising popularity over the past years, directing focus gradually towards pure EV for major bus manufactures. Going forward, we expect the aggressive expansion of pure EV bus would gradually calm while PHEV bus, with its mature technology that caters to increasing safety awareness from customers and reduced subsidy gap with pure EV bus, would regain market attention and attract more investments in the

field, which finally leads to a stabilized market structure.

Bus Type

6<=L<8 8<=L<10 L>=10

Pure EV public bus 4 6 8

PHEV public bus 2 3 4

Fuel cell powered public bus

Super-capacitor public bus

Non-PHEV public bus

2

2

Length (meter)

6

Figure 2: EV public Bus operating subsidy plan (2015-2019) Unit: RMB100,000/bus/year

Sources: MIIT, MOC, MOF, CGIS Research

Figure 3: “Yellow sign car” market (10,000 units)

Sources: MEP, CGIS Research

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Atmosphere pollution

key protected region

Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjing, Hebei,

Shanxi, Jiangsu, Zhejiang,

Shandong, Guangdong, Hainan

40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

Central & southern region Anhui, Jiangxi, Henan,

Hubei, Hunan, Fujian25% 35% 45% 55% 65%

Other regions 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

Sources: MIIT, MOC, MOF, CGIS Research

Figure 1: Proportion of EV public bus in regional addition/replacement demand (2015-2019)

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

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4

Small size vs. large size: 6~8m-long EV bus booming in 2015, 2016 to normalize. In Jan-Nov 2015, 6~8m-long-EV

bus (small size compared to 8~10m and >10m type) accounted for at least 70% of EV bus output for major players. The

portion even soared above 90% for certain players. Core reason behind is the imbalanced subsidy program. Previous subsidy program has granted RMB300k per vehicle purchase subsidy for 6~8m EV bus on central government level. Adding another package from local provinces, this type of EV bus could receive an average RMB400k~600k subsidy. Besides, an annual operation subsidy of RMB40k per vehicle is granted for this size pure EV public bus. Such rich package almost exceeds total cost, which directly led to abnormal growth of the segment.

In contrast, 12m-long-EV public bus,a dispensable part of civil public transportation system, currently only occupies 5%

market share. Recognizing this structure imbalance, “Notice on fiscal support over EV promotion during 2016 and 2020” has adjusted down subsidy by at least 30% for some 6~8m EV bus based on driving range and energy efficiency, equivalent to at least RMB100,000 reduction considering potential reduction in local government level, which would impact the comparative advantage of purchasing 6~8m bus. Meanwhile, recent news over cheating in subsidy claim pointed to 6~8m EV bus segment (to claim for subsidy more easily by setting up auto leasing company collaborated with some battery makers to purchase EV bus with less than required amount of batteries needed). We believe the news coverage would stimulate revisit of existing policies for 6~8m EV bus sector. It also help normalize the segment growth to benefit the long term prospect of EV bus sector through abandoning irrational expansion plan of those opportunistic players without core technologies and R&D.

Date Authority Policy Content

Jul-2014 State CouncilGuidance opinion on

accelarating EV promotion

For cities engaged in EV promotion, EV should account

no less than 30% of newly added/replacement

demand.

Mar-2015 MOC

Implementation opinion on EV

promotion in transportation

sector

Total number of EV public bus, taxi and civil logistic

cars should reach 300,000 by 2020, with EV public bus

reach 200,000.

May-2015 MOF, MIIT, MOC

Notice on improving oil subsidy

policy and accelerating EV

promotion

Link traditional oil subsidy with EV bus promotion

results.

Launch central subsidy on EV public bus operation.

Nov-2015 MOF, MIIT, MOCPilot evaluation scheme on EV

public bus promotion

Sets detailed proportion target of EV public bus in

regional addition/replacement demand.

Figure 4: Selected policies on promoting EV Bus

Sources: CGIS Research

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Market concentration: more competition for pure EV bus in 2015, potential reshuffle in 2016.

Top four players in terms of output for domestic EV bus sector dropped slightly to ~52% in 2015 compared to 56.4% in 2014, according to MIIT data. This is rather fragmented compared to market share of 72.8% of the top four players in passenger EV market (using 2015 sales figure from CPCA), because there is no dominated players in EV bus sector as BYD in passenger EV field (34.9% market share by 2015 sales volume). Concentration in hybrid bus segment stayed largely the same, while pure EV bus segment became increasingly competitive with market share of top four players dropping from 60.2% to 48.3% in 2015, which is obvious as more attractive subsidy package draws more players into the field. Yutong continues its market leading position with more efforts in pure EV bus segment that grabs 15.2% market share. BYD is a dominating player in the pure EV bus segment with length > 12m without major competitor.

We expect the sharp decline in concentration for pure EV would normalize in 2016 as decline of subsidy program for this field may keep potential new entrants away from the market. We may expect to see reshuffle in existing competitive landscape as recent document regarding possible temporary ban over NMC (nickel manganese cobalt) in EV bus may have some impact on players with part of future production capacity set aside for NMC adoption.

Sources: MIIT, CGIS Research

Figure 6: Central purchase subsidy for EV Bus (2016-2020)

Type Bus body lengthSubsidy

(RMB10,000/bus)

6≤R＜8 30

8≤R＜10 40

R≥10 50

PHEV Bus R≥10 25

Pure EV Bus

Figure 5: Central purchase subsidy for EV Bus (2013-2015)

Sources: MIIT, CGIS Research

6≤R＜20 20≤R＜50 50≤R＜100 100≤R＜150 150≤R＜250 R≥250

Ekg<0.25 22 26 30 35 42 50

0.25≤Ekg<0.35 20 24 28 32 38 46

0.35≤Ekg<0.5 18 22 24 28 34 42

0.5≤Ekg<0.6 16 18 20 25 30 36

0.6≤Ekg<0.7 12 14 16 20 24 30

n.a. n.a. 20 23

Note 1: 10m<L≤12m: standard subsidy; L<6m: 20%* subsidy; 6m<L≤8m: 50%*subsidy; 8m<L≤10m: 80%*subsidy; L≥12m double-decker: 120%* subsidy

Note 2: 2017-2018: 80% of 2016 subsidy; 2019-2020: 60% of 2016 subsidy

PHEV Bus 25

Pure EV Bus

Type

Quantity of energy to cover

driving range and payload

(Ekg, Wh/km·kg)

Standard bus body length (10m<L≤12m)

Driving range of pure EV: R (km)

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6

Figure 7: China EV Bus Market (Pure EV & PHEV) by output (LHS: 2015, RHS: 2014)

Sources: MIIT, CGIS Research

Figure 8: China Pure EV Bus Market by output (LHS: 2015, RHS: 2014)

Sources: MIIT, CGIS Research

17.6%

17.5%

9.1%7.8%5.0%

43.0%

Yutong Jinlong Auto Zhongtong

Nanjing Jinlong BYD Other

26.3%

13.6%

9.5%6.9%

5.9%

37.8%

Yutong Jinlong Auto BYD

Nanjing Jinlong BAIC Ford Other

15.2%

13.9%

10.0%

9.3%6.4%

45.3%

Yutong Jinlong Auto Nanjing Jinlong

Zhongtong BYD Other

20.2%

14.6%

14.6%10.8%

6.5%

33.3%

BYD Nanjing Jinlong Yutong

Jinlong Auto BAIC Ford Other

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Comparative advantage for EV bus stands firmly despite gradual subsidy cut.

We did a comparative analysis on the annual power cost (net of oil/operating subsidy for traditional/EV). For a traditional diesel-fueled public bus, assuming average fuel consumption of 36L per 100km, annual mileage of 80,000 km, current diesel fuel ex-factory price (tax-included) RMB4.27/L (RMB5020/t), 0# diesel fuel retail price for Shanghai RMB5.11/L

(2016.1.14), with government subsidy on diesel consumption for public bus RMB(4.27-3.29)/L (historical subsidy program

claimed that when ex-factory diesel price exceeds RMB3.29/L or RMB3870/t, fiscal budget would cover the exceeded

portion for public bus), net power cost is about RMB120,700. For a 12m pure EV public bus, assuming 1.3 degree power

consumption per 100km, annual mileage of 80,000 km, charging fee (base power cost + service fee) of RMB1.2/degree,

annual operating subsidy of RMB80,000 based on latest program, net power cost is about RMB45,000 per annum.

The cost gap expects to stand firmly due to:

a) latest oil pricing mechanism by National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has set floor benchmark for domestic oil price and also adjust back retail price based upon latest global oil price drop, which means no further downside for domestic retail price.

b) currently there is limited visibility for potential decline on operating subsidy for EV bus.

c) “Implementation Opinion on EV Promotion in Transportation Sector” has stated gradual decline of oil subsidy in future, which sets downward pressure on diesel fuel subsidy and in turn incentivize promotion campaign for EV public bus.

Safety issue revisit in EV bus sector: rising NMC’s contribution, impact still under control

Recent news flow regarding EV bus on fire has arose people’s awareness over safety issue of EV bus, while relevant authority has issued document to consider temporarily ban on use of NMC in EV bus. MIIT has initiated investigation and evaluation procedure over risks of using NMC Lithium battery, and EV bus that currently adopted NMC would be temporarily excluded from the promotion list of recommended EV model (not apply to passenger vehicle and logistic cars) before the investigation procedure ends.

We understand that lithium battery with NMC as Cathode material bears higher requirement for BMS (battery management system) and for overall stability, especially in EV bus where large power needed compared to passenger EV. China still lacks experience in wide application of NMC compared to existing track record of using lithium iron phosphate

(LFP) battery. However, we believe the news, which has its impact nevertheless on certain players with model in progress

applying NMC, would not veil the attractiveness of China EV bus sector due to strong growth momentum, better energy efficiency and limited exposure to NMC usage. We also believe that occurrence of such accident at early stage of a new industry is, on the other hand, conducive for the improvement of overall regulations, quality check, manufacturing standard and would help curb the potential investment bubble that leads to industry over-supply.

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Figure 9: Battery market share in pure EV Bus monthly output (LHS: Dec 2014, RHS: Nov 2015)

Sources: auto.gasgoo.com, CGIS Research

64.90%

27.60%

4.55% 2.04% 0.91%

LFP NMC Multi-composite LMO LTO

91.0%

1.0%

3.0% 5.0% 0.0%

LFP NMC Multi-composite LMO LTO

Only 1% of total pure EV bus manufactured during December 2014 used NMC material as cathode of the lithium battery, while LFP, the cathode material with more mature technology and longer application track record in China, dominated 91% market share. We understand the proportion for NMC was up in 2015 (which accounts for 12% of total EV bus market in 2015 according to relevant news) , as PHEV bus may tend to prefer NMC material due to better ability of soc (state of charge) calibration as battery often could not get fully used in PHEV. However, we believe the actual impact should not be overly addressed due to:

a) EV bus sector with higher safety-consciousness than passenger EV would prefer LFP rather than NMC which bears higher power density and requirement for BMS.

b) existing pure EV bus model types largely apply for LFP and not compatible with NMC battery, while it takes time for R&D of new EV bus model.

Meanwhile, we shall recall such suspension does not apply to the logistic vehicles and passenger vehicles, and the relevant authorities' have held an neutral tone towards technology to be used. Current suspension only serves as a tool to lift safety awareness and to optimize product structure, it would not veil the long term trend of wider application of NMC given future improvement in BMS technology.

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Leading domestic plays to benefit in the long run. We believe that leading players with better QC procedure, less exposure to risky components, established track record and global footprints would benefit from the elevation of regulatory standard and therefore, enjoy more from the growth dividend of the whole EV bus market.

BYD [1211.HK] has operated EV bus since 2011 under K series, including K9 (12m), K8(10m), K7(8m). Its K series EV bus is mainly powered by its in-house developed LFP batteries and has been launched in over 30 cities across China. We estimate that its EV bus contributed ~47% in 1H15 EV segment revenue (or ~9.3% of total 1H15 turnover), and about 40% in 2015E EV revenue, while profit contribution also expects to be considerable.

According to the management, during the 2016 BYD investor conference, EV bus order in 2015 amounted to 7,500 units. The company estimated EV bus output in 2016 would be with range of 10,000~15,000 (significantly up from the previously mentioned 8,000 EV bus target during interim investor presentation in Aug 2015), with Guangzhou and Shenzhen to secure 9,000, among which output from Shenzhen expects to up from 3,600 (dominated the local tendering in 2015) to 6,000. Besides, as mentioned above, 6~8m EV bus segment was the major area of domestic cheating for subsidy claim where BYD currently has no exposure to, which better outlines the company’s comparative advantage.

BYD also leads the China EV Bus makers in global coverage. The company has already become the first China automobile brand to provide K9 electric buses to Japan. It also received orders of 60 units of K9 from bus operators in California, 52 units from London and 35 units from Netherland in 2015.

FDG [729.HK] is another electric bus play that is LFP-battery based, with strong presence in Hangzhou (Hangzhou production facility is now in trial production). The company’s Hangzhou factory has designed annual capacity of 100,000 vehicles, mainly producing 2-seater pure electric passenger cars, 5-seater pure electric passenger cars, and 6-9 meter long electric minibuses. FDG is now marketing its electric minibuses to local government agencies and departments. According to management, demand for electric minibuses is strong due to central government’s policy of supporting

development of EV and reduction of PM2.5 emission. Hangzhou government targets to replace all conventional buses for

public transportation in 2016 and 2017.

On the other hand, as NMC battery market are currently dominated mainly by international giants such as Samsung SDI, LG Chemical, we believe the potential temporary ban on adoption of NMC in EV bus also set the tone to support

development of domestic battery plays.

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Figure 10: BYD K9 Spec

Sources: bydauto, Internet, CGIS Research

Length mm 12000

Width mm 2550

Height mm 3360

Battery LFP

Supplier BYD

Capacity Kwh 324

Charging time hour 3~6

Max Speed km/h ≥70

0-50km accleration s ≤23

Seat No. 29+2+1

Under 40km/h km ≥400

Under urban mode km ≥250

Selling Price (after subsidy) RMB 1,000,000

Subsidy (central&local) RMB 1,000,000

Driving range

Price

Size

Power

Function

Figure 11: BYD EV Bus Historical Sales Volume (assuming order fulfilled for 2016E)

Sources: Internet, company, CGIS Research

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E

11

11

Figure 11: Peer Comparison

Sources: Bloomberg, CGIS Research

Sector Ticker Company Price Premium/(Discount)

Price Market Cap 2015F 2016F 2017F 2015F 2016F 2017F 2014 2015F 2014 2015F 2014 2015F 2014 2015F 1M 3M 6M 12M to 20150708 Close Price 2015F PB 2015F PE

Lcy US$m x x x x x x x x % % % % % % % % % % % Lcy x x

Automaker

PV 1211 HK Byd Co Ltd-H 35.40 16,118 34.3 29.0 24.2 18.5 15.8 14.5 2.9 2.5 1.8 8.1 0.6 2.3 0.0 0.1 -17.0 -26.1 4.1 25.1 16.4% 30.4 2.1 29.5

175 HK Geely Automobile Holdings Lt 2.91 3,287 8.9 6.7 5.7 4.1 3.1 2.7 1.2 1.1 8.6 13.0 4.8 6.0 0.8 1.4 -29.5 -29.7 -7.9 -10.5 -10.5% 3.3 1.3 10.0

2238 HK Guangzhou Automobile Group-H 6.57 14,835 9.5 8.0 7.1 77.2 61.9 53.3 1.0 0.9 9.3 10.3 5.9 5.3 n.a. 3.4 -4.9 -6.1 6.1 -6.9 9.5% 6.0 0.9 8.7

2333 HK Great Wall Motor Company-H 5.45 9,534 5.1 4.7 4.5 5.2 4.8 4.5 1.2 1.1 26.2 22.8 15.7 12.6 7.6 6.3 -39.6 -44.3 -33.9 -63.1 -57.0% 12.7 2.5 11.8

600104 CH Saic Motor Corp Ltd-A 18.39 30,821 7.0 6.4 6.2 11.6 10.1 9.1 1.2 1.2 18.9 17.7 6.8 7.2 n.a. 7.3 -13.3 3.5 -7.1 -18.3 -20.0% 23.0 1.5 8.7

Bus 600066 CH Zhengzhou Yutong Bus Co -A 18.91 6,364 12.5 10.9 9.6 8.3 7.3 6.6 3.7 3.3 25.8 27.9 15.3 15.2 n.a. 4.2 -15.9 -10.4 -7.5 11.7 5.6% 17.9 3.2 11.9

000957 CH Zhongtong Bus & Holding Co-A 18.43 831 13.1 13.3 10.8 15.6 14.3 n.a. 2.3 3.4 30.0 24.5 3.5 6.4 n.a. 0.6 -24.6 -11.0 17.7 15.9 22.9% 15.0 2.8 10.7

000868 CH Anhui Ankai Automobile-A 6.18 653 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 3.4 n.a. 1.9 n.a. 0.7 n.a. n.a. n.a. -35.4 -32.0 -19.2 6.9 14.7% 5.4 n.a. n.a.

600166 CH Beiqi Foton Motor Co Ltd-A 4.72 2,393 59.0 42.9 33.7 27.8 18.9 15.6 0.9 0.9 3.1 4.2 0.9 n.a. n.a. 0.4 -25.4 -28.3 -32.7 -22.7 -12.3% 5.4 1.0 67.3

476 HK China Dynamics Holdings Ltd 0.25 117 22.4 7.7 5.0 n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.3 0.3 -2.2 1.1 -2.0 1.3 0.0 n.a. -33.5 -49.3 -42.8 -54.4 -8.9% 0.3 0.3 24.5

729 HK Fdg Electric Vehicles Ltd 0.32 795 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 2.9 n.a. -87.4 -5.0 -1.4 -1.8 0.0 n.a. -33.3 -39.6 -35.4 -28.9 -25.6% 0.4 n.a. n.a.

3836 HK China Harmony New Energy Aut 4.99 1,009 9.9 8.0 6.4 5.7 4.5 4.0 1.2 1.2 22.0 14.0 5.7 6.2 1.9 1.5 -8.8 -15.4 -10.4 -9.4 -0.4% 5.0 1.2 10.0

Average 18.2 13.8 11.3 19.3 15.6 13.8 1.8 1.6 4.8 12.6 4.7 6.1 1.7 2.8 -23.4 -24.1 -14.1 -12.9 -5.4% 10.4 1.7 19.3

600884 CH Ningbo Shanshan Co Ltd-A 24.98 1,560 14.4 19.6 15.0 14.2 16.5 20.0 2.4 2.1 9.3 17.4 10.0 8.4 n.a. 1.2 -36.3 -17.0 -5.6 44.0 10.7% 22.6 1.9 13.0

300073 CH Beijing Easpring Material-A 24.70 687 392.1 48.1 29.9 117.5 33.3 16.0 3.7 4.5 -3.1 1.2 -1.8 1.2 n.a. 0.4 -36.4 -11.7 4.0 40.3 2.2% 24.2 4.4 383.5

000839 CH Citic Guoan Information-A 14.82 3,532 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 3.5 3.4 3.1 4.4 2.9 n.a. n.a. n.a. -27.2 -37.1 -37.1 9.3 -37.1% 23.6 5.5 n.a.

Cathode materials 000009 CH China Baoan Group-A 12.25 2,965 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 4.4 n.a. 9.4 n.a. 4.7 n.a. n.a. n.a. -31.8 -18.6 14.5 -6.5 14.5% 10.7 n.a. n.a.

600390 CH Kingray New Materials Sci -A 12.82 879 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 3.9 n.a. -3.1 n.a. -3.0 n.a. n.a. n.a. -19.4 -5.8 16.4 5.5 26.4% 10.1 n.a. n.a.

002056 CH Hengdian Group Dmegc -A 19.57 1,222 21.3 20.4 19.0 n.a. n.a. n.a. 2.3 2.2 12.2 10.3 7.7 7.3 n.a. 0.1 -30.4 -12.9 -14.6 -18.7 -0.6% 19.7 2.2 21.4

002176 CH Jiangxi Special Electric -A 11.16 2,098 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 6.6 n.a. 2.8 n.a. 1.4 n.a. n.a. n.a. -36.6 -3.5 27.5 55.9 60.8% 6.9 n.a. n.a.

002091 CH Jiangsu Guotai Int Group -A 16.26 890 22.0 19.2 15.8 18.5 16.4 n.a. 3.5 3.3 14.2 15.5 7.7 10.0 n.a. 1.0 -38.8 -38.0 -38.0 1.1 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.

Anode material 000009 CH China Baoan Group-A 12.25 2,965 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 4.4 n.a. 9.4 n.a. 4.7 n.a. n.a. n.a. -31.8 -18.6 14.5 -6.5 14.5% 10.7 n.a. n.a.

600884 CH Ningbo Shanshan Co Ltd-A 24.98 1,560 14.4 19.6 15.0 14.2 16.5 20.0 2.4 2.1 9.3 17.4 10.0 8.4 n.a. 1.2 -36.3 -17.0 -5.6 44.0 10.7% 22.6 1.9 13.0

000973 CH Fspg Hi-Tech Co Ltd -A n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 4.0 n.a. 1.0 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 7.1 n.a. n.a.

Li-ion battery separator 002389 CH Zhejiang Nanyang Technolog-A 12.97 1,400 81.1 59.0 40.5 n.a. n.a. n.a. 2.8 n.a. 2.6 n.a. 2.5 n.a. n.a. n.a. -36.4 -28.1 5.9 13.5 14.2% 11.4 n.a. 71.0

002168 CH Shenzhen Hifuture Electric-A 8.13 965 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 5.4 n.a. -8.2 n.a. 8.6 n.a. n.a. n.a. -31.3 -21.4 -22.3 -5.8 -15.0% 9.6 n.a. n.a.

002108 CH Cangzhou Mingzhu Plastic -A 13.42 1,262 38.3 28.4 21.3 26.7 20.7 15.6 4.8 4.4 12.1 12.0 8.0 8.5 n.a. 1.1 -24.1 -23.2 8.9 34.0 52.0% 8.8 2.9 25.2

002091 CH Jiangsu Guotai Int Group -A 16.26 890 22.0 19.2 15.8 18.5 16.4 n.a. 3.5 3.3 14.2 15.5 7.7 10.0 n.a. 1.0 -38.8 -38.0 -38.0 1.1 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.

300037 CH Shenzhen Capchem Technolog-A 34.56 967 43.7 34.9 n.a. 38.4 32.0 n.a. 3.3 3.2 10.2 7.9 5.8 6.7 n.a. 0.7 -40.9 -3.7 23.3 2.6 26.2% 27.4 2.5 34.7

Electrolytic solution 002407 CH Do-Fluoride Chemicals Co-A 62.98 2,405 251.9 71.3 37.5 67.2 24.4 18.3 9.6 9.6 0.3 3.4 0.7 n.a. n.a. n.a. -17.4 32.6 181.5 206.9 269.2% 17.1 2.6 68.2

002411 CH Jiangsu Jiujiujiu Technolo-A 12.53 2,389 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 5.3 n.a. 3.3 n.a. 0.5 n.a. n.a. n.a. -37.5 -7.9 -1.3 28.0 15.7% 10.8 n.a. n.a.

600884 CH Ningbo Shanshan Co Ltd-A 24.98 1,560 14.4 19.6 15.0 14.2 16.5 20.0 2.4 2.1 9.3 17.4 10.0 8.4 n.a. 1.2 -36.3 -17.0 -5.6 44.0 10.7% 22.6 1.9 13.0

002190 CH Sichuan Chengfei Integrat -A 30.66 1,609 45.1 38.3 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 6.4 n.a. 2.6 n.a. 2.3 n.a. n.a. n.a. -29.9 -19.2 -31.3 -16.9 5.1% 29.2 n.a. 42.9

Pow er core 300068 CH Zhejiang Narada Pow er Sour-A 14.56 1,339 45.5 29.7 20.4 23.2 17.1 13.4 3.0 3.1 3.8 6.7 2.5 3.6 n.a. 0.3 -26.6 -7.2 19.0 44.9 -0.1% 14.6 3.1 45.6

000049 CH Shenzhen Desay Battery Tec-A 38.08 1,188 23.3 20.6 16.8 16.9 13.7 12.6 8.9 7.8 36.8 32.3 7.4 6.7 n.a. 0.4 -32.9 -15.8 -20.3 4.6 -0.2% 38.2 7.8 23.4

300207 CH Sunw oda Electronic Co Ltd-A 21.51 2,110 37.2 23.4 16.5 27.4 18.3 13.1 8.1 7.5 12.3 20.0 6.3 7.0 n.a. 0.5 -23.5 -23.8 1.5 55.9 -1.1% 21.8 7.6 37.6

BMS 002139 CH Shenzhen Topband Co Ltd -A 16.58 662 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 4.4 n.a. 12.3 n.a. 7.0 n.a. n.a. n.a. -33.4 -17.0 -3.7 8.9 9.0% 15.2 n.a. n.a.

600699 CH Ningbo Joyson Electronic -A n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 14.7 14.6 5.0 7.2 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 31.0 n.a. n.a.

002460 CH Jiangxi Ganfeng Lithium Co-A 39.06 2,243 119.1 88.2 67.1 64.8 50.5 39.8 10.0 8.6 6.3 7.7 4.6 6.6 0.3 0.4 -37.9 17.7 107.4 116.8 146.0% 15.9 3.5 48.4

Lithium materials 000762 CH Tibet Mineral Development-A 19.17 1,387 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 5.6 n.a. -5.3 n.a. -2.2 n.a. n.a. n.a. -27.1 6.4 44.1 39.0 89.6% 10.1 n.a. n.a.

000792 CH Qinghai Salt Lake Industry-A 17.75 5,012 25.0 21.6 15.5 22.4 17.8 16.2 1.6 1.5 7.6 4.3 1.7 1.0 n.a. 0.3 -30.9 -18.7 -16.2 -34.3 0.2% 17.7 1.5 25.0

002466 CH Sichuan Tianqi Lithium Ind-A 140.96 5,603 222.3 101.8 74.0 48.8 16.9 14.3 12.7 11.6 4.3 4.9 2.4 2.1 n.a. 0.0 0.1 59.8 142.7 187.1 272.9% 37.8 3.1 59.6

Battery 1043 HK Coslight Technology Intl Gp 2.54 130 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.5 n.a. 1.8 n.a. 0.4 n.a. 0.0 n.a. -25.3 -7.6 -7.6 -45.8 34.4% 1.9 n.a. n.a.

819 HK Tianneng Pow er Intl Ltd 5.65 829 9.6 7.5 6.1 7.2 5.7 4.8 1.8 1.7 -10.7 19.4 -0.9 7.2 0.8 3.4 -13.5 2.7 64.2 202.1 119.0% 2.6 0.8 4.4

951 HK Chaow ei Pow er Holdings Ltd 4.47 588 8.5 6.5 4.7 7.1 5.8 5.3 1.6 1.2 -1.3 13.7 -0.2 4.6 0.0 0.0 -18.4 -9.9 10.1 38.4 24.9% 3.6 1.0 6.8

378 HK Ciam Group Ltd 0.95 626 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 4.0 n.a. -3.7 n.a. -15.5 n.a. 0.0 n.a. -24.6 -39.1 -32.7 232.2 -39.6% 1.6 n.a. n.a.

Super Capacitor 894 HK Man Yue Technology Holdings 0.57 35 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.2 n.a. 2.8 n.a. -1.3 n.a. 1.8 n.a. -24.0 -32.9 -38.7 -47.7 -37.4% 0.9 n.a. n.a.

Average 72.6 34.9 24.8 32.2 19.9 16.4 4.5 4.4 5.8 12.3 3.2 6.4 0.5 0.8 -29.2 -12.2 11.5 39.9 36.6% 15.9 3.2 52.0

Permanent magnetic material 000970 CH Beijing Zhongke Sanhuan Hi-A 9.89 1,601 34.3 26.9 18.7 18.1 15.5 11.2 2.8 2.7 8.2 7.9 4.7 5.2 n.a. 0.8 -29.5 -27.7 -35.4 -41.5 -19.3% 12.3 3.3 42.5

600360 CH Jilin Sino-Microelectronic-A 6.87 771 91.6 42.9 23.7 n.a. n.a. n.a. 2.6 2.5 1.8 2.8 1.1 1.5 n.a. 1.6 -29.4 -17.0 -0.1 31.1 13.6% 6.1 2.2 80.7

002249 CH Zhongshan Broad Ocean Moto-A 8.97 2,349 45.1 28.9 22.1 30.4 18.8 13.7 4.6 3.7 9.6 8.7 4.7 7.4 n.a. 1.9 -32.4 -21.8 -28.2 42.6 2.2% 8.8 3.6 44.1

3898 HK Zhuzhou Csr Times Electric-H 37.80 5,701 13.7 12.1 10.7 11.3 9.8 8.7 3.2 2.8 23.9 22.5 15.5 15.2 1.3 1.8 -16.1 -23.0 -26.9 -9.7 -19.6% 47.0 3.5 17.0

300124 CH Shenzhen Inovance Technolo-A 36.80 4,424 34.1 28.0 22.5 35.9 27.7 21.7 7.6 7.4 20.4 21.9 16.3 16.4 n.a. 1.6 -22.0 -17.3 -8.0 9.1 -8.0% 40.0 8.0 37.1

Motor driver 002196 CH Zhejiang Founder Motor Co -A 23.10 931 117.3 43.0 33.1 83.7 30.1 26.0 4.7 5.1 1.4 2.8 1.9 2.5 n.a. 0.6 -24.7 -13.6 -1.3 34.7 4.9% 22.0 4.9 111.8

000970 CH Beijing Zhongke Sanhuan Hi-A 9.89 1,601 34.3 26.9 18.7 18.1 15.5 11.2 2.8 2.7 8.2 7.9 4.7 5.2 n.a. 0.8 -29.5 -27.7 -35.4 -41.5 -19.3% 12.3 3.3 42.5

000799 CH Jiugui Liquor Co Ltd-A 13.52 668 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 2.5 n.a. -5.7 n.a. 1.9 n.a. n.a. n.a. -24.5 -15.2 -34.9 -12.5 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.

002176 CH Jiangxi Special Electric -A 11.16 2,098 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 6.6 n.a. 2.8 n.a. 1.4 n.a. n.a. n.a. -36.6 -3.5 27.5 55.9 60.8% 6.9 n.a. n.a.

600366 CH Ningbo Yunsheng (Group) Co-A 15.37 1,300 23.9 19.9 20.0 25.4 18.4 16.0 2.4 2.5 6.5 10.3 7.5 8.2 n.a. 1.3 -29.6 -17.8 -56.2 -20.6 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.

600580 CH Wolong Electric Group Co L-A 9.77 1,914 20.8 15.3 13.0 n.a. n.a. n.a. 2.7 3.0 12.1 12.7 4.0 n.a. n.a. n.a. -36.6 -37.3 -23.6 -6.1 -9.1% 10.8 3.3 22.9

002664 CH Xinzhi Motor Co Ltd-A 31.77 1,932 55.5 41.6 32.2 43.9 33.4 25.5 8.9 8.1 14.9 13.9 10.7 10.2 n.a. 0.6 0.0 22.2 42.3 92.1 -13.4% 36.7 9.4 64.2

Average 47.1 28.6 21.5 33.3 21.2 16.8 4.3 4.0 8.7 11.1 6.2 8.0 1.3 1.2 -25.9 -16.6 -15.0 11.1 -0.7% 20.3 4.6 51.4

Charging equpment 002227 CH Shenzhen Auto Electric Pow -A 33.59 1,121 68.6 49.0 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 9.8 n.a. 11.4 n.a. 6.4 n.a. n.a. n.a. -15.0 -1.7 28.4 56.7 87.9% 17.9 n.a. 36.5

600406 CH Nari Technology Co Ltd-A 13.31 4,914 29.8 23.5 19.3 34.1 21.7 16.6 4.6 4.2 19.4 12.5 6.9 6.5 n.a. 0.9 -20.2 -16.1 -21.2 -15.6 3.3% 12.9 4.0 28.8

002028 CH Sieyuan Electric Co Ltd-A 12.25 1,164 18.7 15.9 14.1 13.5 11.1 9.2 2.0 2.0 13.5 10.1 6.9 6.6 n.a. 0.7 -22.9 -10.3 -19.4 -14.6 -12.6% 14.0 2.3 21.4

600680 CH Shanghai Potevio Co Ltd - A 36.14 1,627 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 10.2 n.a. 0.7 n.a. -0.5 n.a. n.a. n.a. -27.2 -22.2 142.6 122.8 200.2% 12.0 n.a. n.a.

002518 CH Shenzhen Kstar Science And-A 28.75 1,298 39.0 29.9 22.9 30.2 25.3 20.0 5.4 4.9 10.3 13.5 8.7 9.3 0.5 0.6 -18.6 4.2 41.1 72.9 41.1% 20.4 3.5 27.6

300141 CH Suzhou Industrial Park Hes-A 20.30 515 112.8 32.2 17.8 90.2 23.9 11.1 4.9 4.8 7.8 4.3 5.0 3.2 0.5 0.2 -25.2 -22.5 29.2 45.9 32.8% 15.3 3.6 84.9

2188 HK China Titans Energy Technolo 1.12 133 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 1.9 n.a. -10.2 n.a. -5.9 n.a. 0.0 n.a. -40.7 -21.1 21.7 55.6 100.0% 0.6 n.a. n.a.

3393 HK Wasion Group Holdings Ltd 3.75 494 6.6 5.6 5.0 5.4 4.6 4.1 0.8 0.8 15.8 12.8 8.5 8.5 6.1 6.4 -53.6 -56.0 -62.2 -48.2 -58.7% 9.1 1.9 16.0

763 HK Zte Corp-H 13.36 8,734 12.1 10.7 9.5 9.3 8.4 7.8 1.4 1.5 11.1 13.6 3.4 2.9 n.a. 2.0 -24.4 -29.5 -20.3 -4.2 -16.0% 15.9 1.8 14.4

1366 HK Jiangnan Group Ltd 1.08 565 4.6 4.1 3.4 7.3 6.4 5.5 0.8 0.8 22.7 19.3 6.9 8.2 5.5 5.2 -28.9 -37.9 -45.5 -25.0 -32.9% 1.6 1.1 6.8

Average 36.5 21.4 13.1 27.1 14.5 10.6 4.2 2.7 10.2 12.3 4.6 6.5 2.5 2.3 -27.7 -21.3 9.4 24.6 34.5% 12.0 2.6 29.6

HSI Index -13.3 -15.8 -22.2 -22.7

HSCEI Index -18.7 -23.6 -28.6 -33.2

SHCOMP Index -22.6 -17.4 -24.4 -14.5

ROA Div yield Share Price Performance 20150707P/BPE EV/EBITDA ROE

12

12

免责声明

此研究报告并非针对或意图被居于或位于某些司法管辖范围之任何人士或市民或实体作派发或使用，而在该等司法管辖范围内分发、发布、提供或使

用将会违反当地适用的法律或条例或会导致中国银河国际证券(香港)有限公司(“银河国际证券”)及/或其集团成员需在该司法管辖范围内作出注册

或领照之要求。

银河国际证券(中国银河国际金融控股有限公司附属公司之一)发行此报告(包括任何附载资料)予机构客户，并相信其资料来源都是可靠的，但不会对其

准确性、正确性或完整性作出(明示或默示)陈述或保证。

此报告不应被视为是一种报价、邀请或邀约购入或出售任何文中引述之证券。过往的表现不应被视为对未来的表现的一种指示或保证，及没有陈述或

保证，明示或默示，是为针对未来的表现而作出的。收取此报告之人士应明白及了解其投资目的及相关风险 ，投资前应咨询其独立的财务顾问。

报告中任何部份之资料、意见、预测只反映负责预备本报告的分析员的个人意见及观点，该观点及意见未必与中国银河国际金融控股有限公司及其附

属公司(“中国银河国际”)、董事、行政人员、代理及雇员(“相关人士”)之投资决定相符。

报告中全部的意见和预测均为分析员在报告发表时的判断，日后如有改变，恕不另行通告。中国银河国际及/或相关伙伴特此声明不会就因为本报告

及其附件之不准确、不正确及不完整或遗漏负上直接或间接上所产生的任何责任。因此，读者在阅读本报告时，应连同此声明一并考虑，并必须小心

留意此声明内容。

利益披露

中国银河证券(6881.hk)乃中国银河国际及其附属公司之直接或间接控股公司。

中国银河国际可能持有目标公司的财务权益，而本报告所评论的是涉及该目标公司的证劵，且该等权益的合计总额相等于或高于该目标公司的市场资

本值的1%;

一位或多位中国银河国际的董事、行政人员及/或雇员可能是目标公司的董事或高级人员。

中国银河国际及其相关伙伴可能，在法律许可的情况下，不时参与或投资在本报告里提及的证券的金融交易，为该等公司履行服务或兜揽生意及/或

对该等证券或期权或其他相关的投资持有重大的利益或影响交易。

中国银河国际可能曾任本报告提及的任何或全部的机构所公开发售证券的经理人或联席经理人，或现正涉及其发行的主要庄家活动，或在过去12个月

内，曾向本报告提及的证券发行人提供有关的投资或一种相关的投资或投资银行服务的重要意见或投资服务。

再者，中国银河国际可能在过去12个月内就投资银行服务收取补偿或受委托和可能现正寻求目标公司投资银行委托。

分析员保证

主要负责撰写本报告的分析员确认 (a) 本报告所表达的意见都准确地反映他或他们对任何和全部目标证券或发行人的个人观点; 及 (b) 他或他们过往，

现在或将来，直接或间接，所收取之报酬没有任何部份是与他或他们在本报告所表达之特别推荐或观点有关连的。

此外，分析员确认分析员本人及其有联系者(根据香港证监会持牌人操守准则定义)均没有(1) 在研究报告发出前30 日内曾交易报告内所述的股票；(2)

在研究报告发出后3个营业日内交易报告内所述的股票；(3)担任报告内涵盖的上市公司的行政人员；(4)持有报告内涵盖的上市公司的财务权益。

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香港上环皇后大道中183号新纪元广场中远大厦35楼3501-07室 电话: 3698-6888

买入 股价于12个月内将上升 >20% :

沽出 股价于个月内将下跌 :

持有 没有催化因素，由“买入” 降级直至出现明确“买入”讯息或再度降级为立刻卖出 :