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© OECD/IEA 2012
Global transport outlook to 2050
Jean-François Gagné
Head of Energy Technology Policy Division
International Energy Agency
Costs of the transport sector under low
carbon scenarios
Consultation on Sustainable Transport in the post-2015 Development Agenda
New-York, 26th of September
© OECD/IEA 2012 2
Content
� IEA mobility model (MoMo)
� ETP 2012 analysis
� CO2
mitigation potential
� Costing out the scenarios
� Infrastructure insights
� Road and rail infrastructure requirements to 2050
� Investment needs for a low carbon future
� Conclusions
© OECD/IEA 2012 3
IEA Mobility Model (MoMo)
� Global transport energy use, emissions and materials
� 29 regions
� Significant data on technologies and fuel pathways
� Robust historic data, including
� Historic stock, sales and fuel economies for 33 individual
countries (expansion to 68 countries in progress) for road
transport modes
� Cost of the transport system by adding up vehicles,
fuels and infrastructure
© OECD/IEA 2012 4
ETP 2012
Scenarios to 2050
� 6°C (6DS): business-as-usual
� 4°C (4DS): expected ‘normal’
policies
� 2°C (2DS): pathways to a clean
energy system
© OECD/IEA 2012 5
ETP 2012 2DS scenario for transport
An ‘avoid, shift and improve’ approach is the most cost
effective to reach 2DS objectives
© OECD/IEA 2012
Mitigation strategies cost comparison
Global transport expenditure estimates to 2050
© OECD/IEA 2012 7
Focus on infrastructure
� IEA partnerships:
� UIC (rail)
� IRF (roads)
� UITP (public transport)
� WRI EMBARQ (BRT)
� Structured analysis
� Historic relationship: travel to infrastructure ratio
� Investments as a portion of GDP
� Global analysis and regional limitations (e.g. congestion)
� Infrastructure insights (2013)www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/name,34742,en.html
© OECD/IEA 2012 8
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Thousdand track-km
OECD Europe OECD Pacific Russia China India ASEAN Middle East Latin America Africa Other
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Million paved lane-km
Road Rail
Sources: IEA analysis based on IRF (2012) and UIC (2012)
Historic trends
Global road additions continue to grow at a rapid pace,
while rail capacity has remained stagnant in most regions.
© OECD/IEA 2012 9
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
1.2%
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Share of GDP
Road Investments
Road Maintenance
Rail Investments
Rail Maintenance
Historic trends
~2% of global GDP spent on road and rail infrastructure
Sources: IEA analysis based on ITF and ADB member country data
© OECD/IEA 2012 10
Looking forward: insights to 2050
Potential cumulative savings: USD 20 trillion (2010 – 2050)
Road Rail
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Million paved lane-km
Other Africa Latin America ASEAN India
China OECD Pacific OECD Europe OECD North America 4DS
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
1 400
1 600
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Thousand track-km
© OECD/IEA 2012 11
Role of investments to achieve 2DS
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Thousands Trunk-Km
BRT Km (Thousands)
Africa Latin America Middle East India
ASEAN ODA China ATE
Russia OETE EU 6 Other OECD
OECD Pacific OECD Europe OECD North America
Case 1 Case 2
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Thousands
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Thousands Track-Km
HSR Track-Km (Thousands)
Africa Latin America Middle East India
ASEAN ODA China ATE
Russia OETE EU 6 Other OECD
OECD Pacific OECD Europe OECD North America
Case 1 Case 2
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
4DS 4DS2DS 2DS
© OECD/IEA 2012 12
Conclusions
� Building a sustainable transport system is cheaper
than a conventional one
� Financial flows shift from operating costs (fuels) to
investment costs (infrastructure for mass transit,
efficient vehicles)
� The role of governments and MDB are key to
support this long term vision through targetted
transport system investments
� Developing countries are primary targets, as the
transport system is still to be built
