CRIMETIMEEXPLORING AND FORECASTING CRIME RATES IN NYC

MICHAEL HARMON, PH.D.INSIGHT DATA SCIENCE

OVERVIEW

▸ Insight Data Science Fellowship Project▸ 3 weeks to develop a data web application▸ Answer the question:

• Can we create a data driven strategy to reduce crime?

• NYC Open Data: 10 years of crime data (2006 - 2015).

DATA SOURCES

NYC OPEN DATA:

ARE THERE PATTERNS WITHIN NEIGHBORHOODS OR TRENDS OVER TIME?

CAN WE BUILD A PREDICTIVE MODEL USING THIS HISTORICAL DATA?

CRIME PATTERNS IN NEIGHBORHOODS

ASSAULTS IN 2015 BY POLCE PRECINCT LARCENY IN 2015 BY POLCE PRECINCT

• Different crimes impact different crimes neighborhoods.• Are there historical patterns and trends of crimes within the neighborhoods?

HISTORICAL PATTERNS AND TRENDS

▸ Forecasting crime rates on a neighborhoods level helps police distribute their resources better and combat crime effectively.

▸ Goal: Build web app to forecast crime rates on a neighborhood level.

WWW.CRIMETIME.ONLINE

•COLLECTED, CLEANED, AND ANALYZED 10 YEARS OF CRIME DATA.•DATA STORED IN SQLITE DATABASE FOR FLEXIBILITY AND SPEED.•FORECASTING USING SEASONAL ARIMA IN PYTHON.•TRAINED ON FIRST 8 YEARS, VALIDATED ON 2014, TESTED ON 2015.•GRID SEARCH FOR SEASONAL ARIMA PARAMETERS .

WWW.CRIMETIME.ONLINE

•BUILT OUT THE FRONT END USING FLASK, HTML, AND CSS.•DEPLOYED TO AMAZON WEB SERVICES.•OBJECT ORIENTED APPROACH•FULLY TESTED USING PYTEST.•EXTENSIVE DOCUMENTATION WITH SPHINX.

ABOUT ME

MICHAEL HARMON▸ Ph.D. Computational Applied Math from Univ. of

Texas▸ Developed C++ code simulate solar cells and

optimize the cell design.▸ Former competitor and coach in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu.▸ More info: michael-harmon.com