ctbe virtual sugarcane biorefinery proposal: concept, objectives and execution plan

CTBE Virtual Sugarcane Biorefinery Proposal: concept, objectives and execution plan

Centro de Ciência e Tecnologia do Bioetanol – CTBEAntonio [email protected]

Workshop on Virtual Sugarcane Biorefinery:assessing success of new technologies

August, 2009

Content

(1) Motivation and Concept

(2) Objectives

(3) Scope

(4) Execution Plan• Mathematical Modeling and Simulation Net• Integrated Process Simulation• Sustainability Parameters• Assessment and Validation

(5) Activities and Schedule

(6) Expected Benefits

Motivation

How to measure the successlevel in R&D&I activities ?

Basic Science Publications

Technology Development ?

In order to solve this dilemma,CTBE decided to build the

Virtual Sugarcane Biorefinery Program

Concept - VSB

VirtualSugarcaneBiorefinery

(VSB)

Virtual Biorefinery• Simulation

• Process Optimization• Impacts Calculation

• Comparison with Standard Biorefinery

EconomicAnd Risk

Assessment

Life CycleAssessment

(LCA)

Input -Output

Assessment

MathematicalModeling Net• Processes

• Unit Operations

Process Alternatives(industrial andagricultural)

Assessment ofSuccess Level

Impacts:• economic

• environmental• social

• CTBE’s Programs• Associated Institutions

• Stakeholders

Concept - Biorefinery

BasicPrinciples

of aBiorefinery

(Kamm and Kamm, 2004)

• Fuels,

• Chemical,

• Materials,

• Specialties,

• Commodities, Goods.

Products Substances and Energy

various, multi product systems

Processing Technologiesvarious,

combined

• Bioprocesses,

• Chemical Processes,

• Thermo-chemical Processes,

• Thermal Processes,

• Physical Processes.

• Food and Feed Grains,

• Lignocellulosic Biomass,

• Forest Biomass,

• Municipal Solid Waste.

Feedstock(s)biological raw material various,

mixed

Objectives

(1) Optimize concepts and processes.

(2) Assess different biorefinery alternatives.

(3) Assess stage of development of newtechnologies.

Scope

Basic routes to be designed / technically assessed:

Route 1: ethanol (1st generation), sugar, electricity;

Route 2: ethanol (2nd generation) – hydrolysis;

Route 3: liquid fuels – synthesis gas;

Route 4: alcoholchemistry;

Route 5: sugarchemistry;

Route 6: lignocellulosechemistry;

Route n: other routes.

In all routessugarcane

agriculturaltechnologiesare included

Scope

Development stages:

Basic Biorefinery: definition of standard production units,considering the defined routes, including bothindustrial and agro technologies.

Optimized Biorefinery: construction of mathematicalmodels for the operation units – optimizationof the production (agriculture and industrial)units. Integration with a Net of Institutions.

Aggregated Biorefinery: aggregation of the concepts ofraw-material production and product and by-product uses.

Execution Plan

Mathematical Modeling and Simulation Net

Modeling and Simulation

SimulationPlatform

MathematicalModels

OptimizationStrategies

SustainabilityImpacts

Virtual

Optimized

Sugarcane

Biorefinery

NET

Sub-Net 1 Sub-Net 2

Sub-Net 3 Sub-Net 4

AgriculturalTechnologies

Execution Plan

Integrated Process Simulation

• Simulation Platform

- commercial packages (ASPEN Plus, SuperPro Designer, Hysys)

- major characteristics:

⇒ large variety of process/operations;

⇒ elaborate mass and energy balances;

⇒ design and evaluate the cost of equipments;

⇒ Data Basis (adequate/update);

⇒ calculate required raw materials and utilities;

⇒ characterize effluents;

⇒ elaborate sustainability analysis.

Sub-Net 1

Execution Plan


• Basic Biorefinery

- Gathering Process Data Production Profile⇒ technical literature;

⇒ judicious survey + set of experimental measurements

at a production unit.

- Examples:

⇒ MACEDO et al., 2008 – sample of 44 sugarcane mills

Central-South region of Brazil.

⇒ IPT, 1990 – Handbook for Energy Conservation in the

sugar and ethanol industry.

Execution Plan


• Optimized Biorefinery

- development and application of techniques for the optimization of subsystems composed by integratedoperations – examples:⇒ power and heat co-generation;

⇒ water net consumption.

- integrated processes optimization (example: amount of surplus electricity) depends on:⇒ adopted technology for production;

⇒ steam consumption;

⇒ amount of fibers (bagasse and straw).

Sub-Net 2

Execution Plan


• Optimized Biorefinery

- mathematical modeling of unit operations:

⇒ selection and definition of priorities;

⇒ simulation platform / literature (to be adapted);

⇒ formulation of a new model.

- mathematical modeling formulation:

⇒ state variables identification;

⇒ models formulation (phenomenological, input-output, etc.);

⇒ experimental data (lab, pilot plant or industrial plant);

⇒ models fitting;

⇒ statistical evaluation;

⇒ model validation (by other group).

Sub-Net 3

Execution Plan

Sustainability Parameters

• In order to analyze the most relevant impacts, thefollowing tools will be used:

- economic and risk analysis⇒ profitability and investment calculations and risk evaluation;

- life cycle analysis⇒ environmental aspects related to a product from utilized

raw material, production, distribution and final use;

- input-output analysis⇒ modifications in the level of activity of each sector, as a

function of the changes in the demand for products of one ormore sectors.

Sub-Net 4

Execution Plan

Agricultural Technologies

• Modeling of agricultural operations.

• Characteristics of the produced sugarcane and

interactions with the Biorefinery

• Environmental aspects related with the agricultural

sector (irrigation, no-till farming, fertilization, LUC,

iLUC, transportation, others).

Sub-Net 5

Execution Plan

Assessment and Validation

• VSB Premises

- completely transparent;

- plausible;

- involvement of the interested parts (stakeholders andassociated institutions);

- stakeholders should help solving conflicts;

- practical and feasible standard application models;

- adoption of compromise solutions – cannot be modifiedunless a new agreement is reached;

- several stages of evaluation and validation.

Execution Plan

Assessment and Validation

• VSB Program Working Plan

- participation of international and national referees;

• Validation of Mathematical Models

- as soon as a MM is constructed by Institution A, itshould be validated by Institution B.

• Validation of Obtained Results

- should be periodically submitted and evaluated by thestakeholders.

Activities and Schedule

Activities and Schedule

2nd Generation Ethanol

Basic FlowsheetsPreliminary Simulation

Evaluation with P.S.

Optimized SimulationAggregated SimulationEvaluation with O.S.Evaluation with A.S.

Expected Benefits

(1) Research Institutions• focus research activities;• coordinated financial support;• identification of research priorities;• assessment of research success.

(2) Government Organizations• support for government planning;• definition of government priorities.

(3) Funding Agencies• definition of support priorities;• assessment of research success.

(4) Companies – Entrepreneurs• support for planning;• selection of projects – business opportunities;• assessment of research success.

Building Team

CTBE Associated Institutions

VSB Program• Antonio Bonomi (Coordinator)

• Mirna Scandiffio (LCA)

• Marcelo Cunha (IO, Economic Analysis)

• Charles Dayan (Mathematical Modeling)

• Marina Dias (Simulation Platform)

• Specialists (Agriculture, Biorefineries,

Ethanol Distribution and Use,

Residues Disposal, others)

Other Programs (strong interaction):• Basic Science

• Pilot Plant

• Low Impact Mechanization

• Sustainability

• FEQ/UNICAMP

• NIPE/UNICAMP

• DEQ/EPUSP

• DEQ/UFSCar

• CTC

• IPT

• UEM

• UFPE

others

OBRIGADO !

Bonomi e Equipe

Execution Plan


• Economic Assessment and Risk Analysis- investment calculation;

- profitability analysis (net profit, gross margin, return oninvestment, payback time, etc.);

- risk analysis – expected valuesbased on probabilitydistribution of eachinput variable subjectto uncertainty.

Execution Plan


• Economic Assessment and Risk Analysis- Results of the Risk Analysis Model

Ethanol from sugarcane bagasse (US$/liter)

Process Expected Value Accumulated Occurence

Probability (*)

Lower Value

Higher Value

Diluted H2SO4 0.373 52% 0.268 0.520

Concentrated HCl 0.507 52% 0.343 0.688

Organosolv 1.348 55% 0.867 1.970

Enzymatic Hydrolysis 0.388 51% 0.275 0.534

AEX 0.691 54% 0.457 1.020

Pentoses and Glucose 0.453 52% 0.327 0.587

(*) Accumulated probability of occurrence from the lower to the expected value.IPT, 2000

Execution Plan


• Life Cycle Analysis - LCA- systematic approach, aiming at identifying the environmental

aspects related to the life cycle of a product, from its productionup to its final use;

- it includes analysis of:

⇒ raw materials

⇒ production

⇒ distribution

⇒ use / disposalproducts andby-products.

ISO, 2006

Execution Plan


• Life Cycle Analysis - LCA- Normalized potential impacts for the ethanol LCA

OMETTO et al., 2009

Execution Plan

Sustainability Parameters• Input-Output Analysis (IO)

- input-output models are used to:

⇒ quantify the modifications in the level of activity of each sector,as a function of the changes in the demand for products of one or more sectors;

⇒ structural modifications due to technological changes of theproduction sectors.

- general equilibrium models are used to capture the alteration in theuse of production factors and in the production of goods as afunction of modifications in the relative prices.

- used to compare impacts and indicators related to the variables:

⇒ level of activity in a sector; ⇒ collection of taxes;

⇒ generated employment; ⇒ energy use (renewable);

⇒ distribution of income; ⇒ GHG emissions;

⇒ added value; ⇒ others.

Execution Plan


• Input-Output Analysis (IO)

- Sector index of incorporated energy in the final demand

Sector

Incorporated

Energy

(toe/R$1,000)

Renewable

energy

participation

Pulp, paper and paper products 0.280 75.9 %

Coke and refined petroleum products 1.135 5.3 %

Ethanol from sugarcane 1.463 96.5 %

Chemicals 0.132 40.5 %

Weighted average 0.119 39.0 %

CUNHA and PEREIRA, 2008