I HC NNGTRNG I HC KINH TKHOA TI CHNH-NGN HNG--------------------

BI TP NHM

Cuc khng hong tin t chu 1997 1998: Nguyn nhn v nh hng

GVHD: Nguyn Thiu QuangSVTH: Nhm L2TV1. L Th LoanLp 37K7.1TTQT3_3

2. Trn TonLp 37K7.1TTQT3_3

3. Thnh VinLp 37K7.1TTQT3_3

4. Nguyn Th Diu HuynLp 37K7.3TTQT3_4

5. Trn Th LanLp 37K7.3TTQT3_3

6. Nguyn Th Thu SngLp 37K7.3TTQT3_3

Nng, thng 10 nm 2014

Mc lcLI M U11.MT S KHA CNH L THUYT V KHNG HONG TI CHNH21.1.Khi nim21.2.Mt s loi khng hong ti chnh22.CUC KHNG HONG TIN T CHU 1997-199832.1. Din bin32.1.1. Thi Lan32.1.2. Indonesia32.1.3. Hn Quc32.1.4. Philippines42.1.5. Malaysia42.1.6. Hong Kong42.2. Nguyn nhn52.2.1. Nn kinh t v m yu km52.2.2.Ch t gi khng ph hp62.2.3.S tng ln ca dng vn nc ngoi72.2.4.Hot ng tn cng u c v rt vn ng lot102.3.nh hng102.3.1. nh hng ti cc nc trong khu vc112.3.2. nh hng ti cc nc ngoi khu vc132.3.3. nh hng ti Vit Nam132.4.Gii php172.4.1. Tng cng hp tc trong khu vc172.4.2.Ci cch khu vc ti chnh172.4.3.Huy ng vn h tr trong v ngoi nc182.4.4.i mi phng php qun l kinh t v m182.5.Bi hc kinh nghim192.5.1. Bi hc kinh nghim cho th gii192.5.2.Bi hc kinh nghim cho Vit Nam20DANH MC TI LIU THAM KHO22

DANH MC BNG BIUBiu 1: Vn t nhn nc ngoi chy vo 5 nc ng , 1990-1996.8Biu 2: T l % gi tr cho vay bt ng sn v cng nghip ch bin ca cc cng ty ti chnh Thi Lan trong tng d n (%).9Biu 3: Mc thu nhp bnh qun/ngi nm 1996 so vi nm 200212

Bng 1: Tng trng xut khu ng (%).6Bng 2: Thm ht ti khon vng lai (%GDP)6Bng 3: Vn t nhn nc ngoi u t vo nm nc ng (Hn Quc, Thi Lan, Indonesia, Malaysia v Philippines) t 1991 1996.7Bng 4: N ti chnh ca khu vc t nhn so vi GDP (%)8Bng 5: N ngn hn vo qu II nm 19979Bng 6: Vn t nhn nhn nc ngoi 5 nc ng (Hn Quc, Thi Lan, Malaysia, Indonesia v Philippines), 1991-199610Bng 7:Tnh trng thua l v ph sn trong h thng ti chnh (1/4/1997-31/3/1998)11

THANH TON QUC T GVHD: Nguyn Thiu Quang

1. SVTH: Nhm L2TVLI M US pht trin ca h thng ti chnh ton cu bn cnh vic mang li nhng c hi ln cho mi quc gia, mi dn tc th ng thi cng tim n nhng nguy c khng hong.Cuc khng hong tin t 1997-1998 bt u tthng 7nm1997Thi Lanri nh hng n ccth trng chng khon, trung tmtin tln, v gi c ca nhng ti sn khc vi ncchu , nhiu quc gia trong c coi nh l "nhng con H ng ". Cuc khng hong ny cn thng c gi lKhng hong tin t chu .Indonesia,Hn QucvThi Lanl nhng nc b nh hng mnh nht bi cuc khng hong ny.Hng Kng,Malaysia,Lo,Philippinescng b nh hng bi s st gi bt thnh lnh. Cni lc Trung Hoa,i Loan,SingaporevVit Namch b nh hng rt t.Nht Bncng khng b nh hng nhiu bi s khng hong, song nn kinh t Nht phi kinh qua nhng kh khn kinh t di hn ca chnh bn thn mnh.Vy ti sao cuc khng hong ny li din ra? Nguyn nhn do u? Din bin th no? Hu qu ra sao? Nhng bi hc kinh nghim v nhng gii php khc phc, vt qua khng hong rt ra c? tr li nhng cu hi trn, nhm chng ti nghin cu k v trnh by ti theo cc ni dung sau:I. Mt s kha cnh l thuyt v khng hong ti chnhII. Cuc khng hong tin t 1997-1998:1. Din bin2. Nguyn nhn3. nh hng4. Gii php5. Bi hc kinh nghimDo kin thc v thi gian cn hn ch nn khng th trnh khi sai st, rt mong nhn c s ng gp ca thy c v cc bn bi tiu lun hon chnh hn.

2. MT S KHA CNH L THUYT V KHNG HONG TI CHNH1.1. Khi nimKhng hong ti chnh (Financial Crisis): L s mt kh nng thanh khon ca cc tp on ti chnh, dn ti s sp v ph sn dy chuyn trong h thng ti chnh. Khng hong ti chnh l khi nim bao trm c s dng chung cho mi loi khng hong gn vi mt cn i v ti chnh v thng l gn vi ngha v phi thanh ton nhiu hn phng tin dng thanh ton ti mt thi im no .1.2. Mt s loi khng hong ti chnh Khng hong ngn hng (Banking Crisis): Khi khch hng rt tin t khi ngn hng, v ngn hng cho vay phn ln s tin gi nn iu ny lm ngn hng kh c kh nng thanh ton ht cc khon n. S rt tin t v lan rng c th dn ti s ph sn ca ngn hng, gy ra khng hong ngn hng mang tnh h thng hoc s tng ln ca li sut tn dng. Khng hong tr nn nghim trng hn khi ngn hng vn cho vay vo cc d n ri ro cao, khng hiu qu. Kt qu l t l n xu tng, ngn hng mt vn v ri vo tnh trng ph sn. Khng hong tin t (Currency Crisis):y cn c gi l khng hong t gi hi oi hay cn cn thanh ton nra khi hot ng u c tin t dn n s gim gi mt cch t ngt cang ni t hoc trng hp buc cc c quan c trch nhim phi bo v ngtin ca nc mnh bng cch nng cao li sut hay chi ra mt khi lng lnngoi hi. Khng hong tin t thng gn lin vi mt cuc khng hong kinh t thc s. Khng hong kp (Twin Crisis): Xy ra khi khng hong ngn hng v khng hong tin t i lin vi nhau, ci ny dn n ci kia. Cc khng hong ti chnh khc: Khng hong th trng chng khon (Crisis of Security Market), Khng hong n quc gia (National Debt Crisis), Khng hong ngn sch (Budget Crisis),

3. CUC KHNG HONG TIN T CHU 1997-19982.1. Din bin2.1.1. Thi LanT nm 1985 n nm 1995, Thi Lan l nc c tc tng trng kinh t cao nht, tc bnh qun hng nm l 9%. Cui nm 1996, bo co Trin vng kinh t th gii ca IMF cnh bo nn kinh t Thi Lan tng trng qu nng v bong bng kinh t c th khng gi c lu. Cng thi gian, th trng chng khon Thi Lan bt u c s iu chnh, c mc vn ha th trng vn ln ch s th trng chng khon u gim.Ngy 14 v 15/5/1997, ng Baht b tn cng u c quy m ln. Sau khi th ni ng Baht ngy 2/7/1997, Baht lp tc mt gi gn 50%, n xung mc 56 Baht mi i c 1 USD vo thng 1/1998. Ch s th trng chng khon tt t mc 1280 cui nm 1995 xung cn 372 cui nm 1997. ng thi, mc vn ha th trng gim t 141,5 t USD xung cn 23,5 t USD. Finance One, cng ty ti chnh ln nht Thi Lan b ph sn. Ngy 11/8, IMF tuyn b s cung cp mt gi cu tr tr gi 16 t USD v thng qua mt gi cu tr na tr gi 3,9 t USD vo 20/8.2.1.2. IndonesiaThng 8/1997, ng Rupiah b gii u c tn cng, n ngy 14, p dng ch t gi th ni hon ton, ng Rupiah lin tc mt gi. Thng 9, c gi Rupiah ln ch s th trng chng khon u gim xung mc thp lch s. Trc khng hong, t gi hi oi gia Rupiah v USD khong 2000USD/IDR, nhng trong thi k khng hong, t gi ln n 18000USD/IDR.Rupia mt gi lm suy yu bng cn i ti sn ca cc cng ty Indonesia, c bit l khon mc n ngn hng nc ngoi tng ln. Do , nhiu cng ty y mnh mua USD vo, bn Rupia ra, khin ni t thm mt gi v t l lm pht tng vt. Lm pht km chnh sch ti chnh tht cht khin chnh ph phi b tr gi lng thc v xng, lm gi 2 mt hng ny tng ln. Tnh trng bo ng tranh ginh mua hng bng pht, ring Jakarta c 500 ngi cht do bo ng.Do thay i t gi hi oi v do nhiu nhn t khc,GDPtheo Dollar M ca Indonesia gim i.2.1.3. Hn Qucu thng 11/1997, cc nh u t bt u bn chng khon hn quc vi quy m ln. Ngy 28/11/1997, t chc nh gi tn dng Moody h th hng ca Hn Quc t A1 xung A3, ngy 11/12/1997 li h tip xung B2. iu ny gp phn lm gi chng khon Hn Quc thm gim gi. Ngy 3/11/1997 t gi Won/USD l 966,2 n ngy 10/12/1997 tng ln l 1450. ng Won mt gi lin tc, s mt gi nhanh chng ca ng Won buc ngn hng trung ng Hn Quc cng b th ni ng Won. ng thi c s ci thin trong cn cn thanh ton, mc thng d thng 11/1997 l 600 triu USD, so vi mc thm ht ca cng k nm trc l 2,07 t gi USD2.1.4. PhilippinesCui thng 6 u thng 7/1997, t nhng kh khn ni ti ca nn kinh t nht l vic thm ht ln trong cn cn vng lai (13% GDP) v tc ng khng hong t Thi Lan, Ngn hng trung ng Philippin b ra khong 2 t USD bo v ng Peso.Ngy 1/7/1997 Ngn hng trung ng Philippin cng b ni rng bin giao ng t gi ng Peso vi ng USD m thc cht l s ph gi ng tin khng chnh thc nh Thi Lan. D tr ngoi t ca Philippin vo thng 4/1997 ch c mc 13,6 t USD. y qu l t i bo v ng Peso => ng Peso mt gi2.1.5. MalaysiaNgay sau khi Thi Lan th ni ng Baht (2/7/1997), ngRinggit ca Malaysia v th trng chng khon Kuala Lumpur lp tc b sc p gim gi mnh. Ringgit gim t mc 3,75 USD/MYR xung cn 4,20 USD/MYR. Nhng ngi tham gia th trng tin duy tr ti khon bng ng Ringgit trng thi bn ra nhiu hn mua vo, vi d tnh v s gim gi ca ng Ringgit trong tng lai. Kt qu l li sut trong nc ca Malaysia gim xung, khuyn khch dng vn chy ra nc ngoi. Lng vn chy ra t ti mc 24,6 t Ringgit vo qu hai v qu ba nm 1997.2.1.6. Hong KongThng 10/1997, Dollar Hong Kong b tn cng u c. C quan Tin t Hong Kong chi hn 1 t USD bo v ng tin ca mnh. T ngy 20/10 n 23/10, Ch s Hang Seng gim 23%. Ngy 15/8/1998, Hong Kong nng li sut cho vay qua m t 8% ln 23% v ngay lp tc nng vt ln 50%. ng thi, C quan Tin t Hong Kong tuyn chin vi gii u c, bt u mua vo cc loi c phiu thnh phn ca Ch s Hang Seng gim p lc gim gi c phiu. Chnh quyn mua vo khong 120 t Dollar Hong Kong cc loi chng khon. Cuc khng hong ny ngng li vo thng 9/1998. T gi gia Dollar Hong Kong v Dollar M vn c bo ton mc 7,8 USD/HKD.2.2. Nguyn nhn2.2.1. Nn kinh t v m yu kmThi Lan v mt s nc ng c gng thc hin B ba chnh sch khng th ng thi. H va c nh gi tr ng tin ca mnh vo la M, va cho php t do lu chuyn vn (t do ha ti khon vn). Kinh t ng tng trng nhanh trong thp nin 1980 v na u thp nin 1990 to ra sc p tng gi ni t. bo v t gi c nh, cc ngn hng trung ng ng thc hin chnh sch tin t ni lng. Kt qu l cung tin tng gy ra sc p lm pht. Chnh sch v hiu ha (sterilization policy) c p dng chng lm pht, v hnh chung y mnh cc dng vn chy vo nn kinh t.1. H thng ngn hng - ti chnh yu km: H thng kim tra, kim sot ni b cc nc ng dn n mt lng n lng vng khng l m khng kp pht hin kp thi. Cc nc c th trng tin t khng hong u c mc nhp siu qu ln, trong khi t l d tr ngoi t trn n nc ngoi qu thp. Trong nm 1996, t l ny ca Hn Quc l 31%, Indonesia ch khong 12%, Thi Lan l 43,1%,S yu km ca h thng ngn hng do cc nguyn nhn ch yu sau:1. Chnh ph cc nc c s can thip (mc khc nhau) vo hot ng kinh doanh ca cc ngn hng v cc cng ty ti chnh nhm hng cc hot ng ngn hng vo h tr cho chnh sch pht trin kinh t. Khi cc ngn hng cho vay theo ch o ca chnh ph th lun tn ti mt tm l li, gi nh ngm rng chnh ph s bo lnh v cu gip nu khon vay khng c i. iu ny dn n c ch gim st, quy nh v hot ng thn trng c coi nh, vic qun l tn dng lng lo v m rng qu mc khin cho hiu qu kinh t thp.1. Bn thn cc ngn hng chm tr trong vic i mi hot ng v bo th trong vic hin i ha cc hot ng nghip v ca mnh v ph thuc rt ln vo s tr gip ca chnh ph.S yu km trong hot ng ca h thng ngn hng ti chnh th hin trc ht trong vic qun l v cp tn dng trong nc c coi l km hiu qu v khng cht ch, tc cho vay vt qu tc tng tin gi.Bn cnh , lng ln vn tn dng c u t vo lnh vc i hi vn ln nhng chu k vn chm l bt ng sn v u t chng khon, cc khon tn dng ny do nhiu l do khng c m bo. V vy, khi nn kinh t b nh n, xut khu gim st lm cho cc doanh nghip vay vn khng c kh nng hon tr, cc t chc ngn hng n b vc ph sn.Ngoi ra, cc ngn hng cn chm tr trong vic a ra gii php i ph vi tnh trng di chuyn vn ngoi t mt cch kh t do. Chnh sch qun l ngoi hi lng lo to iu kin cho s chuyn i d dng gia ng bn t v ngoi t, dn n khng kim sot c s ri i ca cc dng vn do s bn tho ng ni t i ly USD khi xut hin cc du hiu bt n trn th trng tin t. Mt cn i v m:Nm 1996, tc tng trng kinh t ca cc nc ng bt u chng li, tng trng trong xut khu ca ng Nam gim xung mt cch nhanh chng lm cho ti khon vng lai b suy yu, nguyn nhn bao gm: (i) Tng trng thng mi ton cu suy gim. (ii) ng yn mt gi. (iii) T gi hi oi thc hin hiu dng ca cc nc ng ln gi. (iv) Lng cu v gi ca cc mt hng xut khu, c bit l in t suy gim.Bng 1: Tng trng xut khu ng (%).1994199519961997

Thi Lan1920-13

Hn Quc142345

Malaysia202161

Indonesia81297

Philippines17241421

Hong Kong111344

Ngun: NHTG, East Asia The Road to Recoverty, 1998.in hnh nh Thi Lan, thm ht ti khon vng lai nc ny vo 1996 ln n 8% GDP, trong khi con s ca 4 nc cn li khong 3,4-4,8%.Bng 2: Thm ht ti khon vng lai (%GDP)199419951996

Hn Quc-0.96-1.74-4.42

Thi Lan-5.59-8.05-8.05

Malaysia-6.07-9.73-4.42

Indonesia-1.58-3.18-3.37

Philippines-4.6-2.67-3.77

Ngun: NHTG, Ch s pht trin th gii nm 2002.2.2.2. Ch t gi khng ph hpNu yu km v m l nhng nguyn nhn su xa dn n khng hong th cc chnh sch neo gi gia cc ng tin khu vc vi ng USD, to nn mt h thng t gi khin cng l nguyn nhn ch yu dn ti vic ph gi hng lot cc ng tin khu vc. Mc d khi pht t vic c nh ng Baht Thi Lan dn n hiu ng lan ta sang cc ng Peso, Ringgit v Rupiah, nhng thc t, cc ng ni t ny b gim gi trc xu hng ngy cng tng ca ng USD. Vic duy tr t gi hi oi c nh mt cch cng nhc theo USD ca Thi Lan v cc nc ng Nam m nn kinh t c du hiu chng li hoc i xung, trong khi nn kinh t ca M ang pht trin khin cho cc nc ny thay v thc hin chnh sch th ni ng ni t, tr li gi ch thc ca n li phi tiu tn hng chc t USD c gng duy tr mc cn bng gi to ti mc khng th kim gi c na. c bit l Thi Lan, vic 13 nm lin Chnh ph Thi Lan duy tr t gi c nh gia ng Baht v USD (khong 25 Baht/1USD) l ht sc phi kinh t, bi trong khong thi gian ny, cc qu trnh kinh t th gii v khu vc din ra rt mnh m, ng la M ngy cng mnh ln, ng Baht yu dn, cho n trc thi im xy ra khng hong, ng Baht gim xung cn 30,27 Baht/1USD. Li dng iu ny, cc nh u t nng cu USD ln 100 ln so vi bnh thng v y t gi vt xa t gi thc. Kt qu ng Baht b b gy.2.2.3. S tng ln ca dng vn nc ngoiChnh sch tin t ni lng v vic t do ha ti chnh M, chu u v Nht Bn u thp nin 1990 khin cho tnh thanh khon ton cu tr nn cao qu mc. Cc nh u t cc trung tm tin t ni trn ca th gii tm cch thay i danh mc ti sn ca mnh bng cch chuyn vn u t ra nc ngoi. Trong khi , cc nc chu li thc hin chnh sch t do ha ti khon vn theo hng khuyn khch dng vn nc ngoi ngn hn. V d nh chnh sch ca Hn Quc l hn ch u t nc ngoi di hn di dng FDI hay u t chng khon, trong khi ch cho php cc ngn hng vay ngn hn nc ngoi. T gi hi oi c nh m nhiu chnh ph ng duy tr cng l yu t khuyn khch dng vn nc ngoi do ri ro t gi c loi b. Li sut cc nc chu cao hn cc nc pht trin. Chnh v th, cc dng vn quc t t chy vo cc nc chu .T nm 1994 n 1997, lng vn t nhn chy vo cc nc ang pht trin tng 5 ln t 42 t USD ln 256 t USD. ng l ni thu ht mt lng ln dng vn ny, chim khong 60% trong na u thp nin 1990 (theo NHTG 1998).Bng 3: Vn t nhn nc ngoi u t vo nm nc ng (Hn Quc, Thi Lan, Indonesia, Malaysia v Philippines) t 1991 1996.(VT: T USD)199119921993199419951996

- Vn t nhn rng24.829.031.836.174.265.8

+ u t trc tip rng6.27.37.68.87.58.4

+ u t chng khon rng3.26.417.29.917.420.3

+ Vay thng mi v u t khc15.415.37.017.449.237.1

- Vin tr chnh thc rng4.42.00.60.30.7-0.4

Ngun: NHTG, World Economic Outlook, 5/1998 v 3/2000.Biu 1: Vn t nhn nc ngoi chy vo 5 nc ng , 1990-1996.

Ngun: Tnh ton t NHTG World Development Indicator 2002.Mt khc, nhng xc tin u t ca chnh ph v nhng bo h ngm ca chnh ph cho cc th ch ti chnh cng gp phn lm cc cng ty chu bt chp mo him i vay ngn hng, trong khi cc ngn hng bt chp mo him i vay nc ngoi m phn ln l vay n ngn hn v n khng t bo him ri ro.Dng vn nc ngoi to nn s bng n tn dng trong khu vc. Trong thp nin 1990, tn dng ngn hng cp cho khu vc t nhn tng ln nhanh chng. T cui nm 1996, tng gi tr n ti chnh ca khu vc t nhn trn GDP ln ti 140% Hn Quc v Thi Lan. Mc cung tin M2 Hn Quc, Thi Lan, Phillippines, Malaysia v Indonesia tng gn 20%/nm trong nm 1996 v 1997.Bng 4: N ti chnh ca khu vc t nhn so vi GDP (%)Nc199119921993199419951996

Hn Quc103.1110.7121.3128.8133.5140.9

Thi Lan88.698.4110.8128.1142.0141.9

Ngun: Radelet (1998).iu nguy him hn l Chnh ph khng kim sot c n ca cc Ngn hng v doanh nghip cng nh khng xy dng c khun kh php lut v nng lc gim st trong qu trnh t do ha ti chnh. Trong c ch qun l yu km ny, c doanh nghip sn xut ua nhau vay n mt cch liu lnh, s n vt qu tng s vn ca doanh nghip t 200% n 400%.im ng lu na l hu ht cc khon vay nc ngoi ngn hn c u t di hn. N ngn hn nc ngoi lun lun ln hn so vi d tr ngoi t ca cc nc ng vo thi im trc khi xy ra khng hong, c ngha l trong ngn hn nn kinh t s khng c kh nng chi tr. Ch c 2 nc Malaysia v Phillipines trong s 5 nc b khng hong c n ngn hn thp hn d tr ngoi t.Bng 5: N ngn hn vo qu II nm 1997NcN ngn hn nc ngoiD tr ngoi tT l n ngn hn

Hn Quc70.1834.072.06

Thi Lan45.5731.361.45

Indonesia34.6620.341.7

Malaysia16.2726.590.61

Philippines8.299.780.85

Ngun: ADB, Asian Development Outlook, 1999.Mt t trng ln cho vay ca ngn hng v cc t chc ti chnh phi ngn hng c tp trung vo khu vc bt ng sn. Indonesia, cc khon vay khu vc bt ng sn tng 37%/ nm trong giai on 1992-1995 (tng tn dng ngn hng ch tng 22%/nm). Thi Lan, cc khon cho vay bt ng sn tng 41%/nm trong giai on 1990-1995 (tng tn dng ch tng 33%/nm). Hn Quc, cc khon cho vay ca ngn hng tp trung ch yu vo cc tp on ln. T l n/vn c phn ca cc doanh nghip cng nghip Hn Quc ln ti 317% vo cui 1996 (trong khi M l khong 100%)Biu 2: T l % gi tr cho vay bt ng sn v cng nghip ch bin ca cc cng ty ti chnh Thi Lan trong tng d n (%).Ngun: Marcus Miller and Pongsak Luangaram (1998).2.2.4. Hot ng tn cng u c v rt vn ng lotNguyn nhn trc tip ca khng hong tin t Chu nm 1997 l nhng cuc tn cng u c v vic rt vn ng lot khi cc nc chu . Khi pht hin nhng du hiu suy thoi ca h thng ngn hng ti chnh khu vc, nhiu nh u c nc ngoi tng cng hot ng u c tin t.Theo thng k, nhiu nh u c trong tng s 2300 qu tn dng t nhn M, vi ti sn trn 100 t USD nhy vo th trng khu vc ny trong thng 7 v 8/1997. Ngoi cc qu do Soros kim sot cn c cc qu tn dng ln nh Tiger, Orbis, Pumas, Panther v Jaguar. H mua ng Baht, Peso, Ringgit, Rupiah, SGD c tnh 10-15 t USD u c, d tr ngoi hi nh nc cn kit cng lm cho tn cng u c thm ko di.Cui cng th th trng bt ng sn ca Thi Lan v. Mt s th ch ti chnh b ph sn. Ngi ta khng cn tin rng chnh ph kh nng gi ni t gi hi oi c nh. Khi pht hin nhng im yu nghim trng trong nn kinh t cc nc chu , mt s th ch u c v m tin hnh tn cng tin t chu . Cc nh u t nc ngoi ng lot rt vn ra.ng ri vo tnh trng cc nh u t khng cn tin rng d tr ngoi t tr n ngn hn. C cc nh u t nc ngoi ln trong nc u mun chuyn vn ra. Ngn hng i li vn cho vay, t chi o n v ngng cho vay mi; cn cc nh u t chng khon th bn chng khon, i ra ngoi t v chuyn ra ngoi. Ring trong nm 1997, hn 20 t USD rng c a ra khi 5 nc ng b khng hong, trong khi trong nm 1996 vn cn nhn c gn 66 t USD. (Bng di).Bng 6: Vn t nhn nhn nc ngoi 5 nc ng (Hn Quc, Thi Lan, Malaysia, Indonesia v Philippines), 1991-1996VT: T USD.1996199719981999

- Vn t nhn rng65.8-20.4-25.6-24.6

+ u t trc tip rng8.410.38.610.2

+ u t chng khon rng20.312.9-6.06.3

+ Vay thng mi v u t khc37.1-43.6-28.2-41.1

- Vin tr chnh thc rng-0.417.919.7-4.7

Ngun: NHTG, World Economic Outlook, 3/2000.2.3. nh hng2.3.1. nh hng ti cc nc trong khu vc nh hng tiu ccCuc khng hong tin t nm 1997 khin cho nn kinh t ri vo tnh trng suy thoi, tc tng trng gim st trm trng thm ch b m (-). Ngoi ra s ph gi ng tin ca cc nc ng Nam gy ra hu qu nghim trng lu di v tc ng xu n mi hot ng ca i sng kinh t x hi ca cc t nc.1. Thi gian trc v trong cuc khng hong, cc nc u phi tiu tn s lng ngoi t ln chng , gi cho ng tin khng b mt gi qu mc. in hnh nh:1. Thi Lan s dng ti 15 t USD trong tng s 33 t USD d tr ngoi t ca Nh nc cu nguy cho ng Baht,1. Philippines cng s dng 20% tng s d tr h tr cho ng peso. 1. Cc nc khc nh Malaysia, Indonesia cng s dng nhiu t la M vo mc ch ni trn.1. Hn 20 ng bn t b ph gi lm tng cc chi ph n, n nc ngoi tnh bng ngoi t tng ( khong 25-40% ty theo mc ph gi ca ng tin). C th, n nc ngoi ca Thi Lan t 85 t USD ln 119 t USD; Malaysia t 29 t ln 36,5 t USD; Philippines t 43,5 t ln 54,4 t USD; Indonesia t 109,3 t ln 150,5 t USDng tin b mt gi, nn kinh t v m khng n nh dn ti s rt vn t ca cc nh u t, ngi cho vay trong nc v ngoi nc khin ngun vn tn dng cn kit, th trng chng khon trm lng. Hng lot cc ngn hng, cng ty ti chnh thua l nng n v lm vo tnh trng mt kh nng thanh ton hoc b ph sn, gii th, st nhp.Bng 7:Tnh trng thua l v ph sn trong h thng ti chnh (1/4/1997-31/3/1998)NcTng s NHS NH b nh ch hot ngS NH b CP gim stS NH b st nhpS NH bn cho Nh nc% S NH c vn

Thi Lan10856459%

Malaysia604168%

Indonesia22816561136%

Hn Quc561632%

Ngun: ADB, Asian Development Outlook, 19991. H thng ti chnh v gy sc p ln ti lm pht. T l tht nghip tng vt, ch ring Thi Lan sau khng hong khin 2 triu ngi mt vic lm, t l tht nghip Philippines t 9,5% (nm 1996) tng ln 10,4% (nm 1997), ti Hn Quc t 2,5% (nm 1997) tng vt ln 8,6% (thng 7/1998). ng thi thu nhp bnh qun u ngi st gim mnh, cho n nm 2002 vn cha th hi phc bng mc ca nm 1996.Biu 3: Mc thu nhp bnh qun/ngi nm 1996 so vi nm 2002

Ngun: World ban Developmen Indicators 2004Cui cng khc phc c hu qu t cuc khng hong, n nh nn kinh t cc quc gia ny phi tiu tn mt lng ti chnh rt ln, theo c tnh xp x 10% GDP. y l kh khn ln nht khng th gii quyt ngay c trong mt thi gian ngn. nh hng tch ccCuc khng hong khng ch hon ton gy tc hi m mt chng mc no , n l im dng m u giai don mi y trin vng:- Vic chuyn sang chnh sch t gi linh hot s gip cc chnh ph gim thiu c lng ngoi t can thip gi gi bn t nh thi gian trc , gip tng d tr quc gia v lu di, ng thi gim gi ng bn t gp phn khuyn khch xut khu, hng xut khu ca cc nc ny c thm cnh tranh ln trn th trng quc t nht l trong tng quan so snh vi cc mt hng cng loi ca cc nc trong khu vc c ng tin n nh hn.- Cc yu t u vo tnh bng ngoi t, bao gm tin lng, t ai, dch v, gim mt cch tng i cao so vi cc nc khc nn khi khng hong kt thc th chnh cc nc ny li c li th thu ht vn u t, c u t trc tip v u t gin tip.- Nu xt v lu di, th y l dp cc nc ny rt ra c bi hc iu chnh li cc chnh sch v m, iu chnh li c quan pht trin kinh t. Nhng kt qu ca cc ci cch ny s to ng lc thc y s pht trin mt cch bn vng hn.2.3.2. nh hng ti cc nc ngoi khu vcCuc khng hong tin t Chu c nhng nh hng nghim trng khng nhng i vi nn kinh t ca cc nc trong khu vc m i vi c cc nc khc trn th gii c bit l M. 1. Cuc khng hong lm cho th trng xut khu ca M b co li do ng la ln gi, nn kh nng cnh tranh ca hng ho M gim xung. Ngi ta tnh rng t nht th trng xut khu ca M gim 25%, bao gm phn ln l th trng ca cc nc b khng hong. iu ny lm cho tnh trng nhp siu ca M ngy cng trm trng. Nm 1997, M nhp siu l 176 t USD, cao hn nhiu so vi 148 t USD ca nm 1996. 1. ng thi hng nhp khu vo M tr nn r mt cch tng i do ng tin ca cc nc b ph gi so vi ng la M. iu lm cho gi c trn ton b th trng M phi gim xung theo, tc l lm cho li nhun ca cc nh sn xut M gim v u t kinh doanh cng gim. 1. Ngoi ra, cc nc khng hong phi thi hnh chnh sch tht cht tin t khc phc cuc khng hong theo iu kin ca IMF nn h khng c kh nng tr s tin mua v kh hoc phi ko di thi hn thanh ton cho nhng hp ng vi M. 2.3.3. nh hng ti Vit NamL mt quc gia nm trong khu vc khng hong, trong bi cnh quc t ho cao nh hin nay, r rng Vit Nam khng trnh khi nhng tc ng trc tip v gin tip, ngn hn v di hn, tt v xu ca n n tt c cc lnh vc kinh t - x hi ca t nc. V thng miSo vi cc nc, t trng thng mi ca Vit nam vi cc nc trong khu vc Chu ng mt vai tr ht sc quan trng. Theo cc s liu c tnh th khong 70% kim ngch mu dch ca Vit Nam l vi cc Chu v ch yu c thanh ton bng USD hoc vng. Nhng khi ng tin cc nc b ph gi mnh s tc ng xu ti cc doanh nghip c quan h kinh doanh vi cc nc trong khu vc. Ngoi tr ng la Singapore v ng Yn Nht mi b mt gi trn di 20%, cn cc ng tin khc trong khu vc b ph gi t 80% n 250% so vi ng USD. Trong khi ng tin Vit Nam mi ch mt gi cht t, khong trn 10% so vi ng USD. V nhp khu: Hng nhp khu t cc nc ASEAN vo Vit Nam vi mc r gn nh tng ng vi mc ph gi ca ng tin cc nc. Do hng nhp t cc nc s ln t hng ni ca chng ta ngay ti th trng Vit Nam. Chnh iu ny khuyn khch cc nh xut khu ca cc nc tng lng hng bn sang Vit Nam, ng thi khuyn khch cc doanh nghip Vit Nam nhp hng do gi r hn bng c hai con ng chnh ngch v tiu ngch (bun lu qua bin gii). Hin nay, cc doanh nghip trong c nc ta cn tn kho nhiu hng ca cc nc s b l nng v gi cc hng ho ny gim nghim trng. Tuy nhin i vi cc mt hng nh cc loi vt t, nhin liu, my mc phc v cho sn xut u c nhp khu kh d dng nh thu sut thp, r rng y l mt li m cuc khng hong trong khu vc em li cho Vit nam. Theo bo co ca B thng mi gi my mc thit b gim t 20- 40% so vi trc khi xy ra khng hong, gi nguyn liu nha gim 10- 30%, linh kin in t gim 10-30%, bng x cc loi gim 10-15%. y thc s l iu kin thun li cho cc doanh nghip Vit nam tn dng gim chi ph u vo . V xut khu: i vi th trng cc nc ASEAN kim ngch xut khu ca Vit nam chim t trng khng di 20%, th trng Chu chim 40% trong tng kim ngch xut khu ca Vit nam. Tnh chung, Cc mt hng xut khu ch yu gm : du th, than , cao su, c ph ht, go, dt may, da giy v hi sn . Do ng ni t ca cc nc b khng hong mt gi hn so vi ng Vit Nam nn theo nguyn l xut khu hng ho ca Vit nam sang cc nc ny s b hn ch do gi ca cc hng ho ny tr ln t tng i v nhu cu ni a ti cc nc b khng hong gim st. Mt khc c cu hng xut khu ca Vit nam cng ging nh c cu hng xut ca cc nc ASEAN do chc chn v xut khu ca Vit nam hin ti v trong tng lai s c s st gim ng k. Do vy ngun thu t xut khu s gim v hai yu t : Th nht, gi xut khu h th doanh nghip nh sn xut hng xut khu c th phi ngng sn xut v doanh thu khng trang tri cho cc yu t u vo. Th hai, nhng doanh nghip ln c th tm c th trng khc khi b p gi, nhng lng xut khu gim i, ng thi doanh thu cng gim xung do gi xut khu h. Ring su thng cui nm 1997, li tc ca Vit Nam ch tnh t xut khu ca mt hng nng sn b mt khong 500 triu USD. ng thi, do gi c dch v, sinh hot hin nay Vit Nam cao tng i,nn lng khch du lch vo Vit Nam cng b gim mnh i vi Ngn sch Nh nc V thu ngn sch : Nh phn tch phn trn, do tc ng ca cuc khng hong lng hng nhp s c xu hng gia tng v vy thu thu t nhp khu s tng ln. Song theo chng ti, xt v di hn th mc tng thm s khng nhiu v m bo cc iu kin cho qu trnh hi nhp v kinh t Vit nam phi ct gim hng lot thu cc mt hng nhp khu. Do tc ng ca cuc khng hong s dn n thu ngn sch Nh nc c hai hiu ng tri ngc nhau : Mt l : c kh nng tng thu thu xut nhp khu. Hai l : gnh nng n nn v chi ph nguyn vt liu tng ln c th lm cho cc doanh nghip sn xut Vit nam b nh n thm ch l ph sn v nh vy tc ng ca khng hong s lm gim thu ngn sch V chi ngn sch : Trong thi gian ti do VN mt gi 10-15% do nh hng ca cuc khng hong ln vic chi ngn sch Nh nc s tng ln i ph vi lm pht c th ln cao v chi tr n nc ngoi. Cc khon n tnh bng VN ca Nh nc v cc doanh nghip s tng ln do VN mt gi s l gnh nng cho cc doanh nghip v Nh nc, lm gim ng k d tr quc t ca Vit nam. i vi lnh vc Ti chnh Ngn hng Sc p gim gi ng Vit Nam trn th trng hi oi:Do ng tin ca cc nc trong khu vc mt gi t 30-70% nn trn thc t VN ln gi so vi ng tin cc nc ny v gy sc p ph gi. Thc t, tm l lo s VN ph gi dn n vic vi vng chuyn t VN sang USD tch tr, y t gi USD trn th trng t do tng mnh trong mt thi gian, c thi im ln ti 1USD=14.600 VN. i ph li NHNN phi dng nhiu bin php i ph nh tung ngoi t ra bn, nng mc bin dao ng, tng cng cc bin php kim sot ngoi hi. nh hng n c cu tin gi ca h thng ngn hng:Cuc khng hong gin tip tc ng mnh ti c cu tin gi gia ng Vit Nam v ngoi t. Vo thi im u nm 1998, lng tin gi bng VN tng chm trong khi tin gi bng ngoi t tng kh nhanh ( k c tin gi ca dn c v ca cc doanh nghip). Nhiu doanh nghip gi li ngoi t trn ti khon m khng bn li cho NHNN trnh ri ro do s mt gi ca VN. Tnh hnh ny gy nn s mt cn i gia cung cu ngoi t to sc p khng nh ti t gi VN v gy nhng xo trn bt n trn th trng ngoi hi nc ta. Tc ng n hot ng giao dch ngoi tGiao dch trn th trng ngoi t lin ngn hng cng nh th trng ngoi t ni chung b gim st. Trn th trng ngoi t lin ngn hng tnh t u nm n thng 3/1998, cc hot ng giao dch c chiu hng gim st , cc ngn hng thng mi ch tin hnh mua vo m khng bn ra ngoi t dn n cu vt xa cung gy mt cn i cung cu ngoi t t gy sc p tng li sut v d lm mt n nh h thng ngn hng. Doanh s mua 6 thng cui nm 1997 t 2,5 t USD, gim 5% so vi 6 thng u nm; doanh s bn t 2,6 t USD gim 1% so vi 6 thng u nm. Tng gnh nng v n cho cc doanh nghipKhng hong tin t tc ng tng t gi hi oi gin tip lm tng thm cc khon n nc ngoi. c bit l cc khon n n hn thanh ton, nhiu doanh nghip khng mua c ngoi t hoc phi mua vi gi cao chu l rt ln. T gi tng t bin cng gy kh khn cho cc doanh nghip trong khi gi hng ha trong nc khng tng nhiu. Gy sc p vi li sut ng Vit NamNgoi t tng gi mnh lm nhu cu vay vn ng Vit Nam do li sut thp hn v trnh ri ro v t gi song khi nhu cu vay vn bng VN tng ln gy mt cn i cung cu v tin trn th trng, to sc p tng li sut ng ni t. nh hng khng nh ti chnh sch li sut nhm khuyn khch u t kinh doanh sn xut i vi nn kinh t.1. Tt c cc mc nh hng trn ti lnh vc Ti chnh e da s mt n nh ca h thng Ngn hng Vit Nam. Th hin s kh khn ca cc NHTM v huy ng vn, kh nng thanh ton trong nc v quc t. i vi lnh vc u t i vi u t trong nc:Nu sn xut hng tiu th trong nc khng nhp nguyn liu t bn ngoi th khng chu nh hng g. Trong trng hp u t sn xut hng xut khu khng nhp NVL t nc ngoi th nh u t s c hng li nhun do VND b mt gi so vi USD. T ngn sch nh nc s tng ln. Bn cnh hot ng huy ng vn ca Ngn hng gp nhiu kh khn nn ngn hng mi ch p ng c c khong 45-46% nhu cu v vn cho cc doanh nghip quc doanh. Trong khi vic cc nc trong khu vc ph gi ng ni t lm cho hng sn xut t cc nc ny tr ln r tng i v cnh tranh gay gt vi hng sn xut ca Vit Nam. Nh vy cuc khng hong lm cho vic u t m rng sn xut ca cc doanh nghip gp kh khn do thiu vn v b cnh tranh gay gt bi hng ho r t cc nc trong khu vc. i vi u t trc tip ca nc ngoi:S gim st u t trc tip vo Vit Nam t cc nc ang chu tc ng trc tip hoc c lin quan n cuc khng hong. Bi ng tin ca h b mt gi, s khng c li th nu chuyn i ra USD u t ra nc ngoi.i vi cc nc khc trn th gii, v c bn lu di cc nh u t s nhn nhn khu vc Chu trong c Vit Nam nh mt khu vc pht trin khng n nh. Do mi trng v m khng sc li ko h u t vn, cng ngh v k thut qun l vo. Tc ng i vi tin trnh hi nhp kinh t Vit nam vo AFTA , APEC v WTO. Theo cc mc tiu ca AFTA : tng chu chuyn thng mi ni b gia cc nc ASEAN v th thng lng cnh tranh thng mi ca ton ASEAN vi th gii, to lp khu vc hp dn u t trc tip nc ngoi vo khu vc v lm cho nn kinh t ASEAN thch ng vi mi bin i ca nn kinh t th gii.. th cuc khng hong ti chnh tin t trong khu vc hon ton nh hng n mc tiu v cc nh hng t ra. Do tin trnh rt ngn thi hn thc hin AFTA ca mt s nc thnh vin trong bi nh hin nay l ht sc kh khn. V vy i vi Vit nam tin trnh hi nhp vo nn kinh t khu vc v th gii bng vic gia nhp ASEAN, APEC, WTO chc chn s khng trnh khi nhng tr ngi.2.4. Gii php2.4.1. Tng cng hp tc trong khu vcNgay t nhng thng u xy ra khng hong, cc nc trong khu vc tm ra gii phi l phi hp, on kt vi nhau to ra sc mnh tng hp, cng nhau vt qua khng hong. S hp tc ny c c th ha bng vic thnh lp nhng th ch ti chnh- tin t cho khu vc nh Qu tn dng chu , Ngn hng thanh ton b tr a bin ASEAN, hay tha thun gia cc b trng ti chnh ASEAN v vic khuyn khch s dng ng bn t trong thanh ton cc giao dch thng mi ni b ASEAN trn c s cc tha thun song phng nhng vn ly gi tr ng USD tham kho t gi chuyn i gia cc ng tin, tng cng, xc tin vic trao i trc tip hng ly hng.2.4.2. Ci cch khu vc ti chnhCc nc ng thc thi cc bin php, chnh sch sau ci cch khu vc ti chnh:1. Xa v gim n xu, ti vn ha cc th ch ti chnh1. ng ca cc th ch ti chnh v1. Tng cng gim st v p dng cc tiu chun qun tr, k ton mi i vi cc t chc tn dng v ti chnh khc1. y mnh chuyn mn ha cc th ch ti chnhTng cng gim st v iu tit cc t chc tn dng ng thi nng cao tnh k lut trn th trng2.4.3. Huy ng vn h tr trong v ngoi ncS h tr ti chnh khn cp ca cng ng quc t l nhn t c hiu lc tc th v mnh m nht ch ng cuc khng hong, trnh s lan rng v hu qu lu di trong v ngoi nc. Da vo chng trnh h tr IMF, WB v cc t chc ti chnh quc t khc.i vi Thi Lan, nc chu tc ng mnh m nht, vo giai on u ca khng hong, sau nhng c gng vn ng khu vc v quc t ti phin hp IMF ch tr Tokyo thng 8/1997, cc t chc ti chnh quc t cam kt h tr cho ngc ny 17,2 t USD, trong IMF v Nht Bn mi bn gp 4 t USD, ngn hng th gii (WB) v ngn hng pht trin chu (ADB) gp 2,7 t USD; Australia, Malaysia, Singapore, Hng Kong, Trung Quc mi bn gp 1 t USD, Hn Quc, Brunei mi bn gp 500 triu USD. ng lu l nhn khon tn dng ny, chnh ph Thi Lan phi chp nhn gii php c gi m IMF a ra: Vi ngn sch, Thi Lan phi tng thu VAT t 7-10%, va gim chi tiu 10%; ng ca cc cng ty ti chnh yu km v duy tr d tr ngoi t t nht 25 t USD; gi t l lm pht 8-9%; gim thm ht ti khon vng lai xung cn 5% GDP trong nm 1997 v 3% GDP trong nm 1998; ci t c cu v st nhp mt s ng ch ti chnh.i vi Hn Quc th sao? nhanh chng khc phc khng hong, chnh ph ku gi cc t chc ngn hng nc ngoi h tr ti chnh, cng c ngun vn u t trong nc. Theo cng b ca IMF, vo u thng 12/1997 t chc ngn hng quc t v cc nc khc ng cho Hn Quc vay 57 t USD. Hot ng ca IMF tr nn tch cc hn khi Hn Quc b cun vo vng xoy khng hong v khi ng Rupiah mt gi mnh. i ly cc khon h tr, ngoi nhng cam kt nh Thi Lan, cc nc ny cn phi thc hin nhng chnh sch m ca lnh vc ngn hng.2.4.4. i mi phng php qun l kinh t v mHn Quc, Thi Lan v Indonesia v ang thc thi mt ch t gi hi oi linh hot v c ch n nh gi c. C th, cc nc t b ch t gi hi oi neo v hng ti ch mc tiu lm pht. ng thi, cc nc n lc gia tng lng d tr ngoi hi nh nc ca mnh. T 1997 n 2005, nm nc b nh hng nng nht ca khng hong tng lng d tr ngoi hi ca mnh ln bn ln, t 378 t USD.2.5. Bi hc kinh nghim2.5.1. Bi hc kinh nghim cho th gii Phi c cng c iu tit lung vnDo thiu cc bin php kim sot, cc nc chu ri vo tnh trng qu ph thuc vo nn ti chnh bin ng t bn ngoi- chnh l cc khon vay ngn hn. Cui nm 1996, cc nc ng n ngn hng Chu u 328 t USD, ngn hang Nht bn 260 t USD v ngn hng M l 46 t USD v hu ht cc khon vay u l vay theo hnh thc ngn hn (< 1 nm ).Khi cuc khng hong xy ra, cc ngun vn ngn hn bin mt nhanh nh khi xut hin v khng h c mt cng c iu tit hp l no dnh cho n. Vn t do ha th trng vn cng rt quan trng, khng phi tnh c 2 nc chu l n v Trung Quc t b nh hng bi cuc khng hong m v 2 quc gia ny khng t do ha th trng vn. Ngoi ra, trong c nc t do ha th trng vn th cng khng phi ngu nhin nh nc khng ch tt nht tc ng ca khng hong , Singapore chnh l nc c h thng php lut c thc thi tt nht. Cn xy dng hnh lang php l ph hpS gp khng t ri ro khi m ca nn kinh t ca cc nc ang pht trin vi th trng vn quc t m cha xy dng h thng php lut vng chc v i ng cn b lim khit.Thi im trc nm 1997, h thng gim st tn dng ca ngn hng qu lng lo dn n s pht trin qu mc ca th trng tn dng nhiu nc chu nh Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Hn Quc v Thi Lan ko theo vic u t d tha vo mt s ngnh kinh t. Vic d tha ngun vn tn dng cn dn n tnh trng lng ph, vi cuc chy ua s hu ta nh cao nht th gii cc nc chu l mt v d. T hn vic tha tin u t cn dn ti tnh trng pht trin bong bong ca th trng bt ng sn, t quay li thi trng tn dng, v cc ngn hng li cho vay nhiu hn gi tr th chp, nn khi khng hong xy ra, hn ai ht ngn hng phi hng chu hu qu nng n nht.Vic gim st lng lo ca ngn hng cn cho php cc ngn hng c t l vn lu ng khng ph hp. Theo s liu nm 1997 ca ngn hng thanh ton quc t (BIS) th Philippines l 17%, Hong Kong 18% v Singapore l 19%, cc t l ny cao hn rt nhiu so vi tiu chun ti thiu quc t. Nguy c d tha vnS mt cn bng trn th trng ti chnh th gii khin chnh ph ca cc nn kinh t mi ni kh c th ngn chn trong tm kim sot ca h. Ngn kh ca hu ht cc nc Chu hoc cn bng hoc thng d, v khng h c lm pht. Cuc khng hong xy ra phn nhiu nguyn nhn do nhng thay i v m hnh hot ng ca trung gian ti chnh quc t.Th nht, s m rng ng k ca kh nng thanh ton quc t trong thp nin 90 lm gia tng tnh cnh tranh trong dch v ti chnh trn ton th gii. V th cc gim c ti chnh buc phi nhng khon li nhun cao hn thng qua cc d n u t mo him. Th hai l chnh sch kinh t v m ca cc cng quc ng vai tr quan trng trong s m rng ca kh nng thanh khon quc t.1. Tuy nhin tnh trng mt cn bng ny khng ko di , vic tng ngun vn gia tng sc p i vi vic tng t gi hi oi, t lm trm trng thm tnh trng thm ht thng mi. V khi th trng to sc p gim gi ng tin, cc nh u t t ngt rt vn, khin tnh hnh kinh t ti chnh chu chao o.2.5.2. Bi hc kinh nghim cho Vit NamKhi khng hong xy ra, Vit Nam l mt nc khng b cun ht vo vng xoy ca n, v m ca cha rng v s ch ng vt trc ngn chn. Nhng trn mt s mt th tc ng ca cuc khng khong l khng h nh.Lng vn u t trc tip nc ngoi ng k gim manh, nm 1997 l 5.591 triu USD ti nm 1999 cn 2.565 triu USD. Lng vn thc hin nm 1998-1998 cng gim nhng t hn. Tc tng kim ngch xut nhp khu cng gim nhanh, tc tng GDP cng gim st, t 8.15% xung cn 4.77%. Trong thi gian tng ng tc tng trng cng nghip xy dng v dch v cng gim, tc tng gi tiu dung li ln cao, lng khch quc t cng b gim st, lng kiu hi thp.t thc t cho Vit Nam nhng bi hc ng nh :1. Vit nm cn phi c chin lc , quy hoch v cc bin php s dng vn vay nc ngoi , l ODA vay ngn hn v di hn mt cch hiu qu nht v m bo hon tr ng thi hn. Vit Nam cn c h thng lut php , qun l nh nc cht ch qun l vn cc khon vay nc ngoi ngy cng gia tng. Khuyn khch vay vn nc ngoi di hn, hn ch v qun l cht ch vn ngn hn, thn trng vi nhng lung vn ngn hn chu chuyn t.1. Cn duy tr mt th cn bng tng i gia cc mc tiu kinh t v m trong chin lc pht trin kinh t nh : lm pht, tng trng, t gi hi oi, li sut, ngn sch, cn cn thng mi v cn cn thanh ton . Cc chnh sch nn c phi hp ng b, cht ch vi nhau t c hiu qu tt nht.1. S thm ht cn cn vng lai l vn c nhiu quc gia nhc ti, nn cn c quan tm v c nhng bin php iu chnh thch hp.1. Tip tc i mi v m ca nn kinh t, xy ng nn kinh t th trng hin i, quc t ha nn kinh t, xy dng lc lng bn trong vng chc c th chng chi vi cc tnh th nguy cp ca nn kinh t bn ngoi. 1. Lc chn mt cch ph hp v tp trung cc mc tiu u tin trong qu trnh pht trin, la chn vng, ngnh, sn phm,th trng, quy m d n, nh nc nh hng u t theo c cu v quy m hp l nht pht trin ton x hi.1. S pht trin ca th trng phi i km vi pht trin h thng cc ngn hng mnh, c kinh nghim trong vic iu chnh chnh sch tin t trong kinh t th trng1. Va m rng cnh ca th trng vn, nhng khng c php lng lo trong vic qun l v cc quc gia nn duy tr nhng t l hp l nh quan h vn trong nc vi vn nc ngoi; quan h gia vn ngn hn, trung hn v di hn khi gi vn nc ngoi; quan h gia thi hn vay v vn c u t

DANH MC TI LIU THAM KHO1. Tp ch Kinh tquc t January / February 1998 trang 9-111. Vit Nam trc cuc khng hong tin t khu vc _ PTS. Nguyn Th Luyn1. Khng hong ti chnh ng : M hnh khng hong ti chnh th h th ba. Nguyn Xun Thnh Chng trnh Ging dy Kinh t Fulbright.1. Khng hong ti chnh m hnh l thuyt v nhng nguy c i vi Vit Nam trong qu trnh hi nhp hin nay. L Vn Anh. Tp ch khoa hc i hc Quc gia H Ni, Kinh t - Lut 24 (2008) 55-65.1. Khng hong ti chnh chu 1997 - mt gc nhn. Lu Qu Phng, 6/2007.1. Trang web ca Diplomatic academy of VietNam: http://www.dav.edu.vn/en/Truy cp vo ngy 21/10/2014

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