2002 . 1

1 2 3 4 5

M0 M1 M2 T []

1 1234 2 3 [] 4

1 2 3 1 2 3

12345

1979 1979

M0 M1 M2 M0 M1M0+ M2 M1+

=+ M0M1 =+ M2

1 2 3 4 5

1 2 3

1 2 3 4 5

1 2 3 4 5

2-1 A L--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------1 13229 1 30633 1 12649 1 10981 2 12 2 16115 3 586 3 35372 1583 26553 14358 8824 2072 2 1195 171 3 1486 4 366 5 -1191--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

2-2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- A L-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------15249 14258216275 275310 1 123810 15462 26739 2803 343635398 4112641496 314003570691 4150162224 5287 63311 7 -2638-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

2-3 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------A L---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------170 16302182 2202530 1141246202 2494 11257 3120 2479 33255 34467 436524 52036334 6975 7 -311---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

2-4 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------A L---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------114220 188971275250 134820 11593 10178 270862 24642 3 254114 2795 6739 46280 1126 2287 321 43678 5 -3486---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

2-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------A L---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------113661 190989278681 134820 11617 10178 277064 24642 256169 6739 46280 3151 23542 34652 42025---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

M0M1M2 M0 M1 M2

M0 4L11M0 10178 =1L1110981 - 2A22803

M1 M1 ------ M0 =1L13882 +2L2123810M1 4L11M1 34820 =4L11 M0 10178 +4L11 24642

M2 M2 M1 5L1256169 =5L126739 +5L1246280 +5L123151 5L126739 =4L126739 5L1246280 =1L132655 +2L2343635 5L123151 =4L221126 +3L22025

M2 5L1M2 90989 =5L11M1 34820 +5L1256169

--------- ---------- 1 2 3

P46-47 P48--49 P50----57

1 1 2

1998 1999 % 52934 62826 9892 1001 19124 26458 7334 74 100(1) 18660 25298 6638 67 91 2 24 24 0 0 0 (3) 440 1136 696 7 92 3166 3166 0 03 29036 28716 -320 -34 236 4144 3908 405 1372 342 -1030 -10

1998 1999 % 52934 62826 9892 1001 53778 61266 7488 76 1001 18870 21962 3092 412 28710 32230 3520 47 3 6198 7074 876 122 0 238 238 23 2450 2972 522 5 4 734 732 -2 05 -4082 -2382 1646 17

11999199874887488309241%352047%87612%2199998921999663867%1999390840%

2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1993 1994 + %----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 39748.3 51747.7 11999 1001 2948.9 4401.5 1453 122 5832.1 7601.1 1769 15 1 5294.4 6922.8 1628 14 2 537.7 595.6 58 13 0 0 0 04 74.5 460.1 386 35 30892.8 38640.0 7747 656 0.0 645.0 645 5-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1993 1994 + %----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 39748.3 51747.7 11999 1001 2275.2 3788.8 1514 132 26087.7 35674.0 9586 80 1 9692.9 12389.9 2697 22 2 1247.9 1943.1 695 6 3 14582.9 20516.0 5933 49 4 564.0 825.0 261 23 9680.3 10316.0 636.2 54 0 353.9 354 35 228.6 195.7 -33 06 2377.3 2919.0 542 57 -900.8 1500.2 599.4 -5-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

121994356749586593349%269722%319947747

P57

M = M2 / MB MB M2 = MB M M 1 ---- 2----- 3----- 4 ----- P59

P60

12 34

1 2 3 4 5 6

1 2 3 4

& 1 = P76~~77 2 3 P80

1 2 3DMI P81

M A C D P82 R S I P84 W M S % P85

KD KD W M SKD WMSWMSKD KD K --- D --- OBV ARBR AR --- BR ---- A R

C R AR BR V R

B I A S KP S Y PSYn= A / n 50% n--- A---n

1

1----

R ----- P1 ----- P0 ----- D ------ 2 -----

2 1

---- ----- -----

2

P95 1 2

3 1 2 3

4

5 1 2

1 2

1P98

2

M

MM

4%22.4%15.2%

3

SML i P103 1 2

APT 1 2 1 2 3 3

4APTP1055 1 2 36 -----

1 2 3

1 2 3 4 5 1

1 A

B

2 A

B

3 qir A

B

4ABCD10003A8%B4%C24%D2%3r =8%4

1A

2)B

3C

4D

4CA D B

Z=1.2X1+1.4X2+3.3X3+0.6X4+0.99X5 X1= - / X2= / X3= / X4= / X5= / Z1.8

1 ------ ------- ------- 2 ----- -------- 3 ----- ------ -----

1 = - P113 2 = P114

1 2 P115 3 = /

19991~~199910------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 2 3 4 5 6 8-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------A 1.0123 1.0134 1.0145 1.0278 1.0280 1.0315 1.0320B 1.0130 1.0145 1.0130 1.0258 1.0220 1.0325 1.0350--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1 A1.0320/1.0123-1=19.46% B1.0350/1.0130-1=21.72% 2 A0.008943 B0.009233 3 A0.1946/0.008943=21.76 B0.2172/0.009233=23.52 BA

---

1 2 3 4

1----- 2 3 4 5 6 7

1 2 3

----- 1980------ 1994------ 1 2 3 4 5

199441

1 2P126 3P127

---- 1 100=827.85

2 1=0.6172

1 2 3 4 5 6

----- 1 %=/-1 100% %=/-1 100% 2 %=/-1 100% %=/-1 100%

P139

1949~~1952 1953~~1972 1973~~1980 1981~~1984 1985~~1993 1994~~ 12 34

1--- 2 ----

1---- e = Pa / Pb e -----A Pa Pb -----AB 2----- e1/e0 = Pa1/Pa0 / Pb1/Pb0

P149

J 1 6912

2 J J 912

J

-- 1 P152

P152157

1

2 122.05105.69 122.05/105.69-1100%=15.48%15.48% 105.69/122.05-1 100%= -13.4%13.4%

P157

1993-----

1 2 3

P164--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------1 A B C

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2 A / B 3 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

123

P141

1 2

11980 219821995 31996 P170

GDP=C+G+I+X-M =+++- GNDY=C+G+I+CAB=GDP+NY+NCT = +++ =++

1 23------

1 2 3 4

P177 1 2 3 P177

1---- 2 3

1 ---- 2 3 P183

P184

1---- 2----

1 P189 2 1GDP P190 2 P190 3 4 5

P192

P194

1 2 3 1 2 3 4 4 5

1 1 2 2P199 3

1 2 --- ---- 1-----20% =/23---- 1 =/

4 5-----20% =/ 6 12 35 46 5

P202

1 1712500610018201=/GDP = 1712 / 6100= 28%20%2= / = 1712 / 1820 =94%100%3= / = 500 / 1820 = 27.5%20%

-------- P205GDP

GDP M1M2

2 7101200

= / =710/ 1200/12 =7.1 >3 >6

1 2 3 4 5 1 2

P223 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

2 1 2 3 4 5

P225230

11----- 2---- 3---- 4 5 21--- 2----P190

1 2 3 P233 4---

ABA50%B70%10%8%10%5% A10% 0.5+8% 0.5=9% B10% 0.7+8% 0.3=9.4% A5% 0.5+8% 0.5=6.5% B5% 0.7+8% 0.3=5.9% ABA2.5%B3.5%ABB

5 1---- 2P195

6 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- %--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 102761.64 1288.09 1.27 69473.04 841.26 1.23 27333.16 271.55 1.00 14798.60 218.61 1.50 8193.30 59.54 0.73 15941.27 206.11 1.31 3206.71 85.45 2.74---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

115941.27/102761.64=15.51% 215941.27/69473.04=22.9% 3 206.11/841.26=24.5% 4

7 1 1/ 2- / 3/ 4/ 5 6 2

1 2 3 4 5=+/ 6=/ 7=/

1 2P240 --- ---- 3P243

4 1 2 =+/ 5 + + + = ------------------------------------------------------- 100% 6P206

P246

123 1 2

1 2 3

123 ROEROA ROE =

1200020201%20%3030300030%1=/ 2=/ 3=/

1 2 3 4 5 1PM = / 2AU = /

1 2 3 4 5 6

1 1=/ 2= / 3=/

2 1/ 2/ 3/ 3 4 5 6 7

----- 12 1 1 2 3 21234

P229232

------ 1968--------- ------

1 ---- 2 1 2 3 3

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------1 38491 9188 9505 431 576152 26944 6691 336353 11547 9188 2814 431 239804 -135 -1355 1601 1611 10 1611 16116 3067 19036 1597 177 2387778 8480 -8247 -394 264 -135 -329 34 168 305 -473 -2 32----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

-- ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ --- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 10 8514 -8079 -89 -209 -137 011 8869 4889 1284 17195 4167 3640412 355 12968 1373 17404 4304 3640413 447 128 6 16 597 597 59714 7723 4519 1173 13415 13415 1341515 355 9697 -105 9946 9946 994616 608 -2 -2 -4 1014 1461 1051 2063 206317 91 47 138 138 13818 729 729 729 72919 -38 -38 -38 -3820 2280 2280 2280 2280 21 62 60 2 62 6222 889 889 889 88923 -2146 -2146 -2146 -214624 1614 4761 109 464 701 429 5654 2425 8078 807825 1878 1877 1878 187726 -1487 -1487 -1487 -1487----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1 9188- 19036+ 168 =4889- 12968 =-8079 2 ----2063=2063 3 32237+4167 =36404 =36404

1 2 3 4

1 2

355+9696+-105 = 9946

----- 12 1 2 3 4

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

12

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------1 46742.4 6 2512 2848 7 -1290.63 22444 8 -3404 18280 9 13505 3200--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GDP93510GDP

% GDP93510%1 46742.4 100 50.02 28486.1 3.03 2244448.0 24.04 18280 39.1 19.55 3200 6.8 3.46 251 0.5 0.37 -1290.6-2.8 -1.48 -340-0.7 -0.49 1350 2.9 1.4

1.87.1%48%+39.1%=87.1%;2.6.8%3.54.1% 6.1%+48%=54.1%;4.0.5%5.2.9%

GDP1.GDP0.272.GDP0.203.GDP0.0344. GDP0.5

7149.93534.9 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 3534.9 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 3541 2189.4 47.3 1304.3--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 74---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

=/ 100

% 7149.9 100 3534.9 49.4 3541 49.5 2189.4 30.6 47.3 0.7 1304.3 18.2 74 1.0

49.4%49.5%30.6%18.2%

P 371

P373----- 1 2 3 4

----- 1 2 3

8P381 5 11

---------------------------- --------------