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Nyttan med att utveckla centralstationsområdetRapport från BuroHappol Engineering
2017-06-29
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•Ett attraktivt CBD är avgörande för Stockholms tillväxt
•En stark citykärna ger även en stark region, bland anna tpå grund av
tillgängligheten
•Centralstatonsområdet är Stockholms sista stora utvecklingsområde
med 140.000 kvm potentiell bruttoarea
•Upp till 50 000 jobb kan skapas genom att utveckla området
•Varje nytt arbetstillfälle här kan ge ytterligare 4 i regionen
•Att skapa arbetsplatser här är dessutom 5 gånger klimatsmartare än i
andra lägen
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2017-06-29Namn på presentation
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Insikter för CBD och centralstationsområdet*
• Ekonomisk tillväxt i europeiska städer drivs av utveckling
inom högkvalificerade sektorer, kompetensutveckling,
infrastrukturutveckling och införande av ny teknik.
• Stockholms CBD är en integrerad del av stadens ekonomi i
stort och har en viktig roll i att stödja högkvalificerade
verksamheter.
• Prognoserna visar en avsevärd sysselsättningstillväxt i
Stockholm, och den kommer inte att kunna rymmas i CBD
med tanke på egenskaperna och storleken hos dagens
fastighetsbestånd.
• Detta kan ha en negativ inverkan på stadens möjligheter till
ekonomisk tillväxt och samlade konkurrenskraft jämfört
med andra städer.
• Nuvarande uppskattningar visar att ett arbetstillfälle i CBD
ger ett 10 % större bidrag till stadens ekonomi än ett
arbetstillfälle utanför City.
• Att inte utnyttja CBDs yta ordentligt kan begränsa den
ekonomiska tillväxten
• Minskningen i sysselsättning kommer sannolikt att utgöras
av högkvalificerade arbetstillfällen som är viktiga för
ekonomin: inom information, kommunikation, finans,
försäkring, fastigheter och affärstjänster.
• Arbetstillfällena kommer kanske inte att flytta till andra
delar av Stockholms län eller andra städer i Sverige. Istället
kan de lockas till andra skandinaviska eller europeiska
städer. Andra platser i Sverige är inte nödvändigtvis
likvärdiga ersättare för Stockholms CBD.
2017-06-30Namn på presentation 4
*Översättning från BuroHappolds rapport
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Rekommendationer för CBD och centralstationsområdet*
• Storleken, kvaliteten och läget för högkvalitativa
kontorslokaler i Stockholm CBD bör tillåtas att öka med
tiden för att attrahera högkvalificerad ekonomisk
verksamhet och bibehålla stadens samlade
konkurrenskraft.
• Nya lokaler kommer att behövas för att ge plats åt den
förväntade nya sysselsättningen och utvecklingen av dessa
måste underlättas
• För att vara lika konkurrenskraftigt som andra europeiska
städer måste Stockholms CBD växa
• Utbyggnad av kontorslokaler i CBD kommer att göra att City
kan attrahera mer högkvalificerade arbetstillfällen än de som
kan lockas till stadens mer perifera delar.
• Det blir viktigt att förbättra möjligheterna att nå de
högkvalificerade arbetstillfällena i CBD från alla delar av
storstadsområdet, för att säkerställa att arbetstillfällena i
CBD görs tillgängliga för största möjliga tvärsnitt av
invånarna.
2017-06-30Namn på presentation 5
*Översättning från BuroHappolds rapport
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COPYRIGHT © 1976-2014 BUROHAPPOLD ENGINEERING. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
Presentation by Dr Jim ColemanHead of Economics, BuroHappold Engineering
JERNHUSEN STOCKHOLM PORTFOL IOE CON O MIC I M PAC T
3 0 T H J U N E 2 0 1 7
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JERNHUSEN STOCKHOLM PORTFOLIO - ECONOMIC IMPACT
JUNE 2017
STOCKHOLM
Socio-economic change
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JERNHUSEN STOCKHOLM PORTFOLIO - ECONOMIC IMPACT
JUNE 20178
B A S E L I N EE C O N O M Y
Sweden has one of the highest per capita levels of
GDP in Europe.
An economy driven by strength in high-value
services, high-tech manufacturing and high-
productivity standards.
In 2016, the economy expanded by 3.4%
According to the IMF1, Sweden is expected to grow
2.6% annually over the next five years;
unemployment rate projected to drop to 7.3% by
2020.
Stockholm region and Stockholm County have been
expanding at a faster pace than the overall economy
– indicating the importance of Stockholm within
the national economy.
90
100
110
120
130
140
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013*
Stockholm County Stockholm Region Sweden
Economic growth within Sweden2
GDP measured in billion SEK current prices, Index= 2006
1 :Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook; Newsec Property Outlook Spring 20172 : Source: Statistics Sweden
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JERNHUSEN STOCKHOLM PORTFOLIO - ECONOMIC IMPACT
JUNE 2017
S TO C K H O L M – P O P U L AT I O N G R O W T H
9
Source: Timetric
Gothenburg
Stockholm
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JERNHUSEN STOCKHOLM PORTFOLIO - ECONOMIC IMPACT
JUNE 2017
S W E D I S H E M P LO Y M E N T R AT E S
10
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JERNHUSEN STOCKHOLM PORTFOLIO - ECONOMIC IMPACT
JUNE 201711
S TO C K H O L M – P O P U L AT I O N G R O W T H
Stockholm’s population is
growing at a faster rate
than most other
European cities
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JERNHUSEN STOCKHOLM PORTFOLIO - ECONOMIC IMPACT
JUNE 2017
S TO C K H O L M – O F F I C E R E A L E S TAT E
12
The office market in Stockholm remains very strong with rising rental rates and extremely low
vacancy
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JERNHUSEN STOCKHOLM PORTFOLIO - ECONOMIC IMPACT
JUNE 2017
STOCKHOLM CBD
Comparative Performance
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JERNHUSEN STOCKHOLM PORTFOLIO - ECONOMIC IMPACT
JUNE 2017
C I T Y C E N T R E S & C B DT H E I R R O L E A N D S I G N I F I C A N C E
14
1 Brookings Institution; Centre for Cities, UK
Knowledge
Spill over
Connectivity
Agglomeration
Benefits
Vibrancy and
Character
CBDs have a key role in the competitiveness of cities.
Agglomeration Benefits: physical and functional
proximity between various elements of the economic
system coexisting in and around city centres.
Knowledge Spillovers: the ability to share and spread
knowledge across industries/specialisms. CBDs play a key
role in facilitating this exchange.
Connectivity: hubs providing connectivity for businesses,
employees and visitors. Transport infrastructure plays a
major role by connecting jobs (typically in city centres)
and places of residence (typically outside the city core).
Vibrancy and Character: City centres play a central role
in shaping the perception and attractiveness of the
overall city.
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JERNHUSEN STOCKHOLM PORTFOLIO - ECONOMIC IMPACT
JUNE 2017
C I T Y C E N T R E S & C B DT H E I R R O L E A N D S I G N I F I C A N C E
15
1 Ihlanfeldt 1995
Significant linkages: There are significant linkages
between city centres and the suburbs. Suburb based
companies might depend heavily on suppliers of services
that are located in the centre.
Information exchange: Information exchange can occur
more efficiently in dense urban environments because of
physical proximity.
Accessibility: The impact of new employment is
heightened where the opportunities are accessible to a
large and wide-ranging population and diverse labour
pool
Economic
Linkages:
Centre +
suburbs
Accessibility:
Employment
impacts
Information
exchange:
Dense central
environment
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JERNHUSEN STOCKHOLM PORTFOLIO - ECONOMIC IMPACT
JUNE 2017
0 42 km
B A S E L I N ES PAT I A L I N S I G H T : K E Y E C O N O M I C C L U S T E R S
16
Main economic clusters are in northern Stockholm, plus an
additional ICT cluster in the southern part of the city.
Most clusters are close to the CBD with driving time from the
centre varying between 7 and 15 minutes.
The CBD area is approx. 1.8 km2 and accounts for approx. 1%
of the city area.
Main rail station is in the CBD
Arlanda Express services enable travellers to reach the CBD
within 20 minutes.
1 ESRI World Population Estimate
STOCKHOLM CITY
CBD
Kista
Information and communication
10 min driving from CBD
Södermalm
Higher Education, Medicine, Science
15 min driving from CBD
SU, KTH, Karolinska Institute
Information and communication
Wholesale and retail trade
Public administration and defence
Financial and insurance activities
Professional, scientific and technical activities
Accommodation and food service activities
Higher Education
Information and communication
15 min driving from CBD
Financial and insurance activities
Professional, scientific and technical activities
14 min driving from CBD
Professional, scientific and technical activities
13 min driving from CBD
"
"
"Solna
"
"
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JERNHUSEN STOCKHOLM PORTFOLIO - ECONOMIC IMPACT
JUNE 2017
E U R O P E A N C I T Y C LU S T E R C O M PA R I S O N
17
City STOCKHOLM BARCELONA BERLIN COPENHAGEN EDINBURGH ZURICH
CBD map
(Scale: 1:200,000)
Size (km2) 1.8 13.8 1.1 3.9 3.4 0.7
CBD Office Space
Share33% 44% 14% 48% 46% 11%
CBD GDP Share 23% 30% 11% 41% 36% 8%
Driving time to
other clusters
(min)
7-15 12-25 10-18 15 - 15-27
Driving time to
the airport(s)23-37 26 32 17 31 17
Population 911,989 1,620,943 3,450,889 583,348 492,680 380,500
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JERNHUSEN STOCKHOLM PORTFOLIO - ECONOMIC IMPACT
JUNE 2017
HISTORIC RANKING LATEST RANKING
33
26
43
19
31
24
44
10
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
2008 2010 2012 2014
Stockholm
Amsterdam
Copenhagen
Berlin
Zurich
Barcelona
Milan
New York (Highest)
C I T Y B E N C H M A R K I N GAT K E A R N E Y C I T I E S I N D E X
18
Source: AT Kearney Cities Index, AT Kearney, 20141 Criteria based performance is discussed in the subsequent section
AT Kearney Cities Index: Ranking Trend
Ranking
6 Y
R T
REN
D
4 Y
R T
REN
D
2 Y
R T
REN
D
N/A
The AT Kearney Cities Index – an annual industry recognised cities benchmarking exercise
New York emerges as the leading city globally in terms of its overall competitiveness1
Stockholm’s performance over the last 6 years has been declining (as highlighted in red)
Currently ranked at 39 (2017) – a decline of 12 places since 2012
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JERNHUSEN STOCKHOLM PORTFOLIO - ECONOMIC IMPACT
JUNE 2017
STOCKHOLM CBD
ORIGINAL STUDY
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JERNHUSEN STOCKHOLM PORTFOLIO - ECONOMIC IMPACT
JUNE 2017
O R I G I N A L P O RT F O L I OP R O F I L E
20
Based on available
information1, the overall
portfolio comprised 63%
office space followed by
retail, hotel and other uses
like parking, warehousing
etc2.
Jernhusen Central Station
area is approx. 12% of this
total.
1 Received by the date of issue of this version of the report2 Source: Property owners
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JERNHUSEN STOCKHOLM PORTFOLIO - ECONOMIC IMPACT
JUNE 2017
O R I G I N A L P O RT F O L I OE C O N O M I C I M PA C T M E T H O D O L O G Y
21
Portfolio Space by use 1 (Office, Retail, Hotel)
Employees by job type in portfolio1,4
(Service, Retail, Hotel)
Input
Portfolio Space by use 1 (Office, Retail, Hotel)/
Employees by job type in portfolio1,4
(Service, Retail, Hotel)
Weighted average
space per employee
Portfolio total space by Use/ Weighted Average Space per employee by type4
Employ-ment by
type
GDP per employee for services retail and accommodation 5*Employment by type
GVA by type
Portfolio GVA per use * GVA multiplier per use2, 3
Indirect GVA
Portfolio employment per use * employment multiplier per use2, 3
Indirect Employment
Input
Estimate
Result
Indirect Result
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JERNHUSEN STOCKHOLM PORTFOLIO - ECONOMIC IMPACT
JUNE 2017
O R I G I N A L P O RT F O L I OC U R R E N T E C O N O M I C I M PA C T M E T H O D O L O G Y - M U LT I P L I E R S
22
Employment Gross Value
Added
Space
Category
Internat. Nat. Internat. Nat.
Office 1.7 4.05 1.6 2.95
Retail 1.6 2.4 1.6 2.8
Hotel 1.3 2.2 1.6 4
Economic impacts can be disaggregated into: direct, indirect and
induced impact
Economic impact multipliers are created to estimate the additional
employment and value-added that is generated as result of an
increment in the production of a specific economic sector.
Indirect impacts are the employment and value-added created across
the supply chain as a result of an increment of the production of a
good or a service.
Induced impacts result from the expenditures of employees in the
local economy. These expenditures further increase local demand
and therefore the production of products and services.
To calculate the indirect and induced impacts of the portfolio, Type II
multipliers were used for employment and GVA. The study uses two
different sets of multipliers. The first set is the Swedish 2010
multipliers as used in the Airport City Stockholm study. The second
and more conservative set of multipliers is derived from the Scottish
government’s multiplier. Because we use both of these in each
scenario, two different results are provided.
National (Swedish) multipliers were tested against official national
accounting Input-Output tables and although they are somewhat
optimistic, are not considered particularly unrealistic.
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JERNHUSEN STOCKHOLM PORTFOLIO - ECONOMIC IMPACT
JUNE 2017
O R I G I N A L P O RT F O L I OC U R R E N T E C O N O M I C I M P A C T R E S U L T S U S I N G I N T E R N A T I O N A L M U L T I P L I E R S
23
Estimated Economic Impact
$
Approx. SEK 21 bnDirect GVA Impact
Approx. SEK 34 bnIndirect & Induced GVA Impact
Estimated Employment Impact
Approx. 24,000 Direct Jobs
Approx. 41,000 Indirect & Induced Jobs
Other Impacts and contribution
Business agglomeration
Knowledge and Innovation
Retail and destination offer
…
Overall attractiveness
and competitiveness ofStockholm City and CBD
Based on available data, secondary market research and benchmarking analysis, it is estimated that the current client portfolio has the following
economic impact on the city economy …
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JERNHUSEN STOCKHOLM PORTFOLIO - ECONOMIC IMPACT
JUNE 2017
O R I G I N A L P O RT F O L I O - S C E N A R I O SS U M M A R Y - G R O S S VA L U E A D D E D
24
-20 000
-10 000
-
10 000
20 000
30 000
40 000
50 000
60 000
Current portfolio Planned portfolio
with maximum
utilisation
Replace 1% of
office space with
retail
Planned portfolio
+3% office space
with maximum
utilisation
Planned portfolio
+8% office space
with maximum
utilisation
Risk of doing
nothing
Miljo
nta
l
Direct GVA SEK
Indirect & Induced GVA SEK
International Multipliers
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JERNHUSEN STOCKHOLM PORTFOLIO - ECONOMIC IMPACT
JUNE 2017
S TO C K H O L M C B DO F F I C E S PA C E I M PA C T C I T Y C E N T R E A N D S U B U R B S
25
The estimated GDP per service job produced in the city centre is 10% higher
than that produced in the suburbs of the city
The city centre seems to attract the service jobs with the highest economic value
compared to the ones in the suburbs.
This result suggests that an additional m2 of office space in the CBD will make a
more significant contribution than locating it in suburban areas.
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JERNHUSEN STOCKHOLM PORTFOLIO - ECONOMIC IMPACT
JUNE 2017
JERNHUSEN STOCKHOLM CENTRAL STATION
AREA
CURRENT PORTFOLIO
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JERNHUSEN STOCKHOLM PORTFOLIO - ECONOMIC IMPACT
JUNE 2017
Based on available data, secondary market research and benchmarking analysis, it is estimated that the current client portfolio has the
following economic impact on the city economy …
C E N T R A L S TAT I O N P O RT F O L I OC U R R E N T E C O N O M I C I M PA C T 1
27
Estimated GVA Impact2 Estimated Employment Impact4
Estimated Income Impact6
1 The estimates presented here are based on portfolio data received till the date of issue of this version2 Estimation of GVA impact is based on the assumption that service sector constitutes majority of the business activity in the CBD. Furthermore, the apportionment of GVA is based on share of office space.3 Indicating indirect and induced GVA created in the wider Stockholm economy due to the economic activities taking place in businesses located in the portfolio buildings. Calculated using industry standard GVA multiplier . Source:
Scottish Input-Output table (URL: www.gov.scot)4 Estimation of employment impact is based on the share of office space in the portfolio vis-à-vis Stockholm CBD5 Indicating indirect and induced employment created in the wider Stockholm economy due to the economic activities taking place in businesses located in the portfolio buildings. Calculated using industry standard employment multiplier
. Source: Scottish Input-Output table (URL: www.gov.scot)
$Other Impacts and contribution
Approx. SEK 182 millionDirect GVA Impact
Approx. SEK 309 millionIndirect & Induced GVA Impact3
Approx. 2,400 Direct Jobs
Approx. 3,900 Indirect & Induced Jobs5
Transport Hub
Support business around
transport hub
http://www.gov.scot/http://www.gov.scot/
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JERNHUSEN STOCKHOLM PORTFOLIO - ECONOMIC IMPACT
JUNE 2017
JERNHUSEN CENTRAL STATION PORTFOLIO
FUTURE SCENARIOS
28
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JERNHUSEN STOCKHOLM PORTFOLIO - ECONOMIC IMPACT
JUNE 2017
Based on available data, secondary market research and benchmarking analysis, it is estimated that the current client portfolio has the
following economic impact on the city economy …
C E N T R A L S TAT I O N P O RT F O L I OP L A N N E D F U L L D E V E L O P M E N T ( W I T H O V E R - D E C K I N G ) - E C O N O M I C
I M PA C T 1 I N T E R N AT I O N A L M U LT I P L I E R S
30
Estimated GVA Impact2 Estimated Employment Impact4
Estimated Income Impact6
1 The estimates presented here are based on portfolio data received till the date of issue of this version2 Estimation of GVA impact is based on the assumption that service sector constitutes majority of the business activity in the CBD. Furthermore, the apportionment of GVA is based on share of office space.3 Indicating indirect and induced GVA created in the wider Stockholm economy due to the economic activities taking place in businesses located in the portfolio buildings. Calculated using industry standard GVA multiplier . Source:
Scottish Input-Output table (URL: www.gov.scot)4 Estimation of employment impact is based on the share of office space in the portfolio vis-à-vis Stockholm CBD5 Indicating indirect and induced employment created in the wider Stockholm economy due to the economic activities taking place in businesses located in the portfolio buildings. Calculated using industry standard employment multiplier
. Source: Scottish Input-Output table (URL: www.gov.scot)
$Other Impacts and contribution
Approx. SEK 908 millionDirect GVA Impact
Approx. SEK 1.5 billionIndirect & Induced GVA Impact3
Approx. 9,800 Direct Jobs
Approx. 16,600Indirect & Induced Jobs5
Transport Hub
Support business around
transport hub
http://www.gov.scot/http://www.gov.scot/
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JERNHUSEN STOCKHOLM PORTFOLIO - ECONOMIC IMPACT
JUNE 2017
Based on available data, secondary market research and benchmarking analysis, it is estimated that the current client portfolio has the
following economic impact on the city economy …
P O RT F O L I OP L A N N E D F U L L D E V E L O P M E N T ( W I T H O V E R - D E C K I N G ) - E C O N O M I C
I M PA C T 1 N AT I O N A L M U LT I P L I E R S
31
Estimated GVA Impact2 Estimated Employment Impact4
Estimated Income Impact6
1 The estimates presented here are based on portfolio data received till the date of issue of this version2 Estimation of GVA impact is based on the assumption that service sector constitutes majority of the business activity in the CBD. Furthermore, the apportionment of GVA is based on share of office space.3 Indicating indirect and induced GVA created in the wider Stockholm economy due to the economic activities taking place in businesses located in the portfolio buildings. Calculated using industry standard GVA multiplier . Source:
Scottish Input-Output table (URL: www.gov.scot)4 Estimation of employment impact is based on the share of office space in the portfolio vis-à-vis Stockholm CBD5 Indicating indirect and induced employment created in the wider Stockholm economy due to the economic activities taking place in businesses located in the portfolio buildings. Calculated using industry standard employment multiplier
. Source: Scottish Input-Output table (URL: www.gov.scot)
$Other Impacts and contribution
Approx. SEK 908 millionDirect GVA Impact
Approx. SEK 2.6 billionIndirect & Induced GVA Impact3
Approx. 9,800 Direct Jobs
Approx. 38,700Indirect & Induced Jobs5
Transport Hub
Support business around
transport hub
http://www.gov.scot/http://www.gov.scot/
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JERNHUSEN STOCKHOLM PORTFOLIO - ECONOMIC IMPACT
JUNE 2017
C E N T R A L S TAT I O N S C E N A R I O S : O U T P U T S U M M A RY
International Multipliers National Multipliers
Direct jobsIndirect and
Induced Jobs Direct GVA Indirect GVA
Indirect and
Induced Jobs Indirect GVA
Number Number SEK SEK Number SEK
Existing 2,390 3,900 181,900,000 309,300,000
7,600 530,700,000
Planned Full Development
(with overdecking) 9,800 16,600 908,500,000 1,544,500,000 38,700
2,674,000,000
Area A (ETAPP) is the Area schedule is excluded as per client email dated 30th March 2017
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JERNHUSEN STOCKHOLM PORTFOLIO - ECONOMIC IMPACT
JUNE 2017
If no (or limited) planned development is taken forward:
− An additional 7,400 direct jobs may not be available
− An additional 34,000 indirect jobs may not be available
− A potential gain of SEK 726million may be lost to the economy
− The overall risk is a loss of competitiveness for Stockholm’s CBD relative to
other competitor cities
C E N T R A L S TAT I O N - ‘ D O N OT H I N G ’ S C E N A R I O
33
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JERNHUSEN STOCKHOLM PORTFOLIO - ECONOMIC IMPACT
JUNE 2017
CONCLUSIONS & RECOMMENDATIONS
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JERNHUSEN STOCKHOLM PORTFOLIO - ECONOMIC IMPACT
JUNE 2017
O V E R A L L C O N C LU S I O N S
35
• Economic growth in European cities is driven by:
highly skilled sectors, knowledge transfer,
infrastructure development and introduction of
new technologies
• Stockholm's CBD is an integrated part of the
city's economy as a whole and has an important
role in supporting high value activities
• Projections indicate a significant employment
growth in Stockholm - it cannot be
accommodated in the CBD with its current
characteristics and real estate portfolio
• A job in the CBD provides a 10% higher
contribution to the city's economy than a job
outside the centre
• Not utilizing CBD space properly may limit
economic growth
• The risk of not changing the CBD is a ‘loss’ of
potential new jobs – over 7,00 direct jobs
• The reduction in employment is likely to consist
of high-quality jobs that are important to the
economy: in information, communication,
finance, insurance, real estate and business
services.
• These jobs may not move to other parts of
Stockholm County or other cities in Sweden.
Instead, they may be attracted to other Nordic
or European cities.
• Other locations in Sweden are not necessarily
equivalent replacement for Stockholm's CBD.
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JERNHUSEN STOCKHOLM PORTFOLIO - ECONOMIC IMPACT
JUNE 2017
K E Y R E C O M M E N DAT I O N S
36
The scale, quality and location of high quality
office space in Stockholm’s CBD area must be
allowed to increase over time in order to attract
high-value economic activities and maintain the
competitiveness of the city overall.
New space will be needed to host anticipated
new employment and its development must be
actively facilitated
To be as competitive as other European cities,
Stockholm’s CBD must expand
Expanding office space in the CBD area will
enable the city to attract higher value jobs than
those which may be attracted to more peripheral
areas of the city.
Improvements in terms of access to high quality
CBD based employment from all parts of the
wider city will be important to ensure that the
widest cross section possible of residents is able
to take advantage of CBD-based employment.