energetski moznosti mk

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-, . - - ,


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1. .............................................................................................................................. 3

2. : ......................................................................................... 5

3. F MERCADOS EMI......................... 11

4. - .... 20

5. F MERCADOSEMI ........................... 27

6. : ........ 31

6.1 ......................................................................................... 33

6.2 Mercados, ........................................................................................................................................ 34

6.3 , ............................................................................................... 35

6.4 , ........................................................................................ 37

6.5 ........................................................................................................... 38

7. : ..................... 438. ................................................................................................................ 44

....................................................................... 46


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1.

. ,

, .

.

, : - , F MERCADOS EMI (F MERCADOS EMI 2013). ,

, . - F MERCADOS EMI . , , ,

,


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, (Bouzarovski et al. 2011, osi etal. 2012, F MERCADOS EMI 2013, 2010,Bertoldi et al. 2006, Tieman 2010, Tirado Herrero rge-Vorsatz 2012,USAID 2009, 1998).

, , - , . FMERCADOS EMI - , . , . .


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2. :

. . . . (Bouzarovski 2013).

, , . , , . , , . (

40 MW) . . 500 MW ( , ).


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20 . . , , . , . :

- . 10 , 250 MW ( 1). , , .

-

( 1).

- , 80 MW .

1:

, 2011 (F MERCADOS EMI 2013)

(MW) (GWh)

610.4 1,469

(42) () (84) (80) (116)

(12.8)


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(168) (21.6). (36.4)

(49.6)

1,284.4 4,858

(1+2+3) (699) (4,784) (125) (210)- (220) (74)- (30.4)

1.6* ()*

1,894.8** 6,327**

* , 35 7,8 MW 9854 MWh(http://www.ea.gov.mk/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&

id=679&Itemid=124&lang=mk).

**
http://www.ea.gov.mk/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=679&Itemid=124&lang=mkhttp://www.ea.gov.mk/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=679&Itemid=124&lang=mkhttp://www.ea.gov.mk/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=679&Itemid=124&lang=mkhttp://www.ea.gov.mk/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=679&Itemid=124&lang=mk


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8

1: ( ).


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2: (F MERCADOS EMI2013)

GWh (2011)

4,169

2,918 1,144 107

1,548

0 59 1,489

, , . ,

:

- , , (Bouzarovski et al.2011);

- , ( 2) , . (peak load) (FMERCADOS EMI 2013);


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- , (Analytica 2012);

- .

2: , GWh (F MERCADOS EMI 2013)


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3. F MERCADOS EMI

F MERCADOS EMI , , (FMERCADOS EMI 2013, 4).

, . 2015, . .

. .

. differentia specifica :

( ) (F MERCADOS EMI 2013: 5). (ibid) . 10

43


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5 . (high peak load) , 2030. , 2030 . , , . , .

. () 762 MW 2017, 300 MW 40 MW . 2001/80/EC 23 2001 ( 1). .

1:

, . - 50 MW , , .


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27 2001 . ( 88/609/EEC 94/66/EC).

26 2002 () SO2,NOx III VII. , 1 1987, 27 2002, ( ) III VII.

( 1 1987) 2008. .

:http://ec.europa.eu/environment/air/pollutants/stationary/lcp/legisla

tion.htm

. , ( , 2010) . ,

: 2030 56 GWh , 720 GWh . ( 4410 GWh 2030, 710 GWh ). 70 45 GWh 2030.
http://ec.europa.eu/environment/air/pollutants/stationary/lcp/legislation.htmhttp://ec.europa.eu/environment/air/pollutants/stationary/lcp/legislation.htmhttp://ec.europa.eu/environment/air/pollutants/stationary/lcp/legislation.htmhttp://ec.europa.eu/environment/air/pollutants/stationary/lcp/legislation.htm


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3: ( 2010, F MERCADOS EMI 2013)

(MW)

(GWh)

68 117 193.5 264 54 252 333 340/840

/

5 163

18.3

89 30010

176.8 784

100 267

1037.6 2487/2987

( , ) , (. 27). , , . , , . , 14 TWh 2030 .


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16 TWh 2030 .

. 2030 762 MW 2017 . () (F MERCADOS EMI 2013: 36) ; , . ( 30 MW 2020 , , 350 MW 2030).

2030 , 2024 .

. :

-

. , , 2025 .

2030 .


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, . , ( 2010: 36);

- , ( 2010: 46). , , 13 . , - . 30 MWh,

.

- .

. 70 GWh 120-180 GWh, 1000 GWh . .


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- F MERCADOS EMI , . . , , , , . .

-, . Inter alia, (85/337/EEC, 97/11/EC, 2003/35/EC, EIA ,( 2)

( 96/61/EC , ( 2) ( 1). (F MERCADOS EMI 2013, 50).

, ( ), . ,

. ,


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300MW; , .

2: ()

()

1985 , . I , ( . , , - 2100 , , > 100 /, > 150 000 .). II, -

. .. : , .

1985 , 1997,2003 2009 . , 97/11/EC

( ). . , 2003/35/ EC ., 2009/31/EC I II

, (CO2).


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1985 2011/92/EU 13 2011.

2012 .

( ) , . , I ( , , , , , , .) 2008/1/EC 2010/75/EU . , 6 2014 .

: http://ec.europa.eu/environment/eia/eia-legalcontext.htm;http://europa.eu/legislation_summaries/environment/waste_managem

ent/l28045_en.htm.
http://ec.europa.eu/environment/eia/eia-legalcontext.htmhttp://europa.eu/legislation_summaries/environment/waste_management/l28045_en.htmhttp://europa.eu/legislation_summaries/environment/waste_management/l28045_en.htmhttp://europa.eu/legislation_summaries/environment/waste_management/l28045_en.htmhttp://europa.eu/legislation_summaries/environment/waste_management/l28045_en.htmhttp://ec.europa.eu/environment/eia/eia-legalcontext.htm


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4. -

, F MERCADOS EMI . 2030 , . .

. , 2012 45 - -151. , . - ,

. 1990 2010 , 40 , 976 GWh 1359 GWh (Tieman 2010). , 1519GWh 2010 GWh (Eurostat, 2013). , () 1990 2006 ,

() 25 ( 2010: 49). , 2005 , ( 3).

1http://www.iea.org/stats/prodresult.asp?PRODUCT=Indicators
http://www.iea.org/stats/prodresult.asp?PRODUCT=Indicatorshttp://www.iea.org/stats/prodresult.asp?PRODUCT=Indicators


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3: 1992 2010 ( 2005 ) -15 .

: http://www.eia.gov/cfapps/ipdbproject/iedindex3.cfm?tid=92&pid=46&aid=2
http://www.eia.gov/cfapps/ipdbproject/iedindex3.cfm?tid=92&pid=46&aid=2http://www.eia.gov/cfapps/ipdbproject/iedindex3.cfm?tid=92&pid=46&aid=2


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. 10 , . , 8 2001 2010 . , ( ), , , (USAID 2009). .(Tirado Herrero and rge-Vorsatz 2012, Urge-Vorsatz et al. 2010). 43 2001 2010 (Eurostat 2013). , 7 1990 2010 2,7

(ABB 2013). 230 000 (Balkan Insight 2013).

.

F MERCADOS EMI . 80 .(Analytica 2012, World Bank 2012).

, , , ,


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( 3).

3:

. MARKAL , , 2010 2050 . 5303 ( 135 ) 40 . . : (i) 2 , (ii) 463 MW 813 MW

40 , (iii) 360 MW 670MW . 2,2 133 CO2 40.

(EnergyForecasting Framework and Emissions Consensus Tool (EFFECT)) 2050 . 1,6 1,7 . , , 15 2035 , 22 - .


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. 40 . 40 , 20 . .

: http://web.worldbank.org/archive/website01354/WEB/0__CO-40.HTM

, F MERCADOS EMI , 40 2014 2020 ( 60) . , .

, FMERCADOS EMI 2030 . , . , , 300 MW , . (Choudhury 2013).

2012 1 GW ( 4).
http://web.worldbank.org/archive/website01354/WEB/0__CO-40.HTMhttp://web.worldbank.org/archive/website01354/WEB/0__CO-40.HTMhttp://web.worldbank.org/archive/website01354/WEB/0__CO-40.HTMhttp://web.worldbank.org/archive/website01354/WEB/0__CO-40.HTM


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4. 2012, .

(: http://www.pv-power-plants.com/industry/national-markets/;http://www.solarflowthrough.com/s/SolarEnergy.asp?ReportID=561475&_Type=Sola

r-Power&_Title=Germany-Europe;

http://www.ea.gov.mk/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=679&Itemid

=124&lang=mk).

50

(osi et al. 2012). , inter alia, (, ) 25 , 35, , 35 , 15 , 50
http://www.pv-power-plants.com/industry/national-markets/http://www.solarflowthrough.com/s/SolarEnergy.asp?ReportID=561475&_Type=Solar-Power&_Title=Germany-Europehttp://www.solarflowthrough.com/s/SolarEnergy.asp?ReportID=561475&_Type=Solar-Power&_Title=Germany-Europehttp://www.ea.gov.mk/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=679&Itemid=124&lang=mkhttp://www.ea.gov.mk/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=679&Itemid=124&lang=mkhttp://www.ea.gov.mk/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=679&Itemid=124&lang=mkhttp://www.ea.gov.mk/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=679&Itemid=124&lang=mkhttp://www.solarflowthrough.com/s/SolarEnergy.asp?ReportID=561475&_Type=Solar-Power&_Title=Germany-Europehttp://www.solarflowthrough.com/s/SolarEnergy.asp?ReportID=561475&_Type=Solar-Power&_Title=Germany-Europehttp://www.pv-power-plants.com/industry/national-markets/


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20 . 35 , 20 , 15 , , 50 20 . , inter alia, 3 1100 MW, 1500 MW .


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5. F MERCADOS EMI

F MERCADOS EMI . ,

, , , CO2 2020 2017 . , 300 MW 600 MW/ .

, (F MERCADOS EMI 2013,77). ,

(600 MW) . . , ,

( )


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, . (F MERCADOS EMI 2013, 99).

:

- 2020 2030 ;

- , 600 MW 300 MW ;

- ,

2020 (F MERCADOSEMI 2013, 96)

-

2020 .

, :

- CO2 ( )

;-

;

- F MERCADOS EMI

.


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:

- , 4 . , , . , .

- , ( );

- .

.

4:

(Bouzarovski 2013). , ( ) . , , .

.


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. , ( ).

20 . . , (Bouzarovski et al. 2011).

. . , (Boardman2010).


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6. :

F MERCADOS EMI (2013), : -

. Electricity demand and supply model Macedonia_Final(

). .

, . F MERCADOS EMI (2013). 3 2012 2050 . , ,

, . . . , , , , . .

2018 . ,

.


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(, , , , , ) 2012 2030 , 2035,2040 2050. :

- , . .

- , , .

- . .

. . , 600 MW 39,9 FMERCADOS EMI (2013). 1MWh 2,5MWh.

F MERCADOS EMI (2013) , 36 2. CO2 3. .

.

2

. (DECC, 2011)30.33MTCO2/TWh; 0.185MTCO2/TWh


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6.1

F MERCADOS EMI (2013) . 8, 22 FMERCADOS EMI (2013) 2012 20304. 2010 . 2,4

20122030 . 2030 2050, , 2030 1,3 .

24 (. 79) F MERCADOS EMI (2013), 2030 . , 25. , 5

. . F MERCADOS EMI(2013) . , 2012 6 6 2030 .

2030 2050

4 Mercados (2013, p.27-8). , 8. 5 / .6

http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EG.ELC.LOSS.ZS. 2011 2012
http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EG.ELC.LOSS.ZShttp://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EG.ELC.LOSS.ZS


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. , (2012 2030). 400 MW 2035 400 MW 2040 2050 .

6.2 Mercados,

, . , 1 7. ( ). , :

- 234 MW

2017 , 330 MW 2022 470 MW 2030. 234 MW 2017 , 330 MW 2019 470 MW 2022.

- 600 MW 2017 600 MW 2030 . 600 MW 2017

, .

7 , , , . 1

(2012).


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- 600 MW 2030 , 400 MW 2040 2050 . ( 2 ) .

.

6.3 ,

. ,

:

- .

- .

- , 400 MW

2015 . , 400 MW 2017 . .


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8 . .

- , . , 300 MW, 2016.

-

2020 ( ,2010 ). 815 MW 2020 1000 MW 2030 9(.85).

- 2030 720 MW , (2010). 24 30 MW . 420 MW 2030-2050

1200 MW. 1500 MW osi et al (2012) 100 .

- 2030 , 720MW , 10. , 600 MW

8 .9 (2010b). 1000MW ( CEE Bankwatch Network ).10 60MW 85GWh. (Olmedilla PV Park - ) , .

3kWp 15m2

18 90 .


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200 000 3kWp. 2030 2050 , 470MW , 1120MW. 1600MW osiet al(2012).

6.4 ,

. :

- . 234 MW 2018 , 330 MW 2020 . 470 MW 2022, .

2015 .

- .

- , 400MW 2015 . . ,

11 .

- , 2016 .

.11 .


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250MW 2035-40 , 300MW .

- .

- .- .

6.5

1 , . 1, 2, 3 412

, ( ). 5 6 . . , .

13. . , (Mercados, 2013) ( ) . ( ) .

.

12 2030 2035, 2040 2050 . 13 ,

.


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. (2011), 85-90 2050 93-99 1990 . 1990 , . , .


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7. :

. .

.

MERCADOS :

-

, . ;

- ;

-

.


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8.

ABB. 2013. Czech Republic: Energy efficiency report.

DECC 2011. Digest of UK Energy Statistics, A National Statistics

Publication

F MERCADOS EMI. 2013. ELEM, FYR Macedonia: Technical andEconomic Review of Lower Carbon Alternatives for Power Capacity

Increas. .

Analytica. 2012. The story of the Macedonian heat market how toreform it?.

Balkan Insight. 2013. Macedonia Population Drained by Emigration,

Report Says :: Balkan Insight.http://www.balkaninsight.com/en/article/report-macedonia-

drained-by-migration.

Bertoldi, P., Rezessy, S. and Vinec, E. 2006. Energy service companies in

European countries: current status and a strategy to foster their

development. Energy Policy34: 18181832.

Boardman, B. 2010. Fixing Fuel Poverty: Challenges and Solutions.

London: Earthscan.

Bouzarovski, S. 2013. Energy poverty in the European Union: landscapes

of vulnerability. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and

Environmentn/an/a.

Bouzarovski, S., Sarlamanov, R. and Petrova, S. 2011. The Governance of

Energy Poverty in Southeastern Europe. Brussels: French Institute

for International Relations.

Choudhury, N. 2013. Greece cuts FiTs retroactively. PvTech

http://www.pv-tech.org/news/greeks_cuts_fits_retroactively.

osi, B., Krajai, G. and Dui, N. 2012. A 100% renewable energysystem in the year 2050: The case of Macedonia. Energy48: 8087.

European Commission 2011. A roadmap for moving to a competitive low

carbon economy in 2050, Communication from the Commission to


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the European Parliament, The Council, The European Economic

and Social Committee of the Regions

Ministry of Economy. 2010a. Strategy for Energy Development in the

Republic of Macedonia Until 2030. Prepared by the TheMacedonian Academy of Sciences and Arts.

Ministry of Economy 2010b. Strategy for the Utilization of Renewable

Energy Sources in the Republic of Macedonia by 2020, Government

of the Republic of Macedonia

Macedonia Green Growth and Climate Change Analytic and Advisory

Support Program 2012. Brief, November 2012

Tieman, A. F. 2010. The Electricity Sector in FYR Macedonia. IMF Working

Paper.

Tirado Herrero, S. and rge-Vorsatz, D. 2012. Trapped in the heat: Apost-communist type of fuel poverty. Energy Policy49: 6068.

Urge-Vorsatz, D., Arena, D., Herrero, T. S., Butcher, A. and Csoknyai, T.2010. Employment Impacts of a Large-Scale Deep Building Energy

Retrofit Programme in Hungary. Budapest: Center for Climate

Change and Sustainable Energy Policy.

USAID. 2009. Macedonia energy efficiency and renewable energy

assessment Final report.

World Bank. 1998. FYROM - Joint Country Assistance Strategy.

Washington, D.C.: World Bank.

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Analytic and Advisory Support Program. Washington D.C.


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: - 11 125/121000

www.ekosvest.org.mk

:-, . - - ,

:

:

:200
http://www.ekosvest.org.mk/http://www.ekosvest.org.mk/


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CIP - ". ",

338.23:620.92]:621.311-047.44(497.7)

: .-

: -, 2014. - 50 . ; 26

ISBN 978-608-65411-1-8

) - - - COBISS.MK-ID 95431434

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