espas report economy

8/22/2019 Espas Report Economy

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1 E

: . BEA/2012//01

G E 2030:

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2030

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C

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E ......................................................................................................................................................... Idc ....................................................................................................................................................................

Pa I. De f G ............................................................................................................................................... 1

1. Pa ad a caa ..................................................................................................................... 1

1.1 Wd a dac ............................................................................................................. 1

1.2 Wg age a ad ab fce ................................................................................. 4

1.3 Qa e a ...................................................................................................................... 6

1.4 Mga .................................................................................................................................................. 8

1.5 Ubaa ........................................................................................................................................... 9

2. Caa ad Caa Mae ....................................................................................................................... 12

2.1 Iee ad caa acca a de f g ............................................ 12

2.2 Te ge e effec f g ee ae ................................................................ 13

2.3 Sag e ee ............................................................................................................ 15

2.4 Face: A adbc ece a ecea gede f deee? ....... 15

2.5 Cc .......................................................................................................................................... 16

3. Gbaa .................................................................................................................................................... 17

3.1 Tade ....................................................................................................................................................... 17

3.2 Gba aeadded ca: A e f ade ae? ........................................... 21

3.3 Iee f ............................................................................................................................... 27

3.4 Lgee ed ade ad faca gbaa .................................................. 30

3.5 Cc .......................................................................................................................................... 32

4. Tecg ad Ia ....................................................................................................................... 34

4.1 Ta fac dc ................................................................................................................ 34

4.2 O edc ................................................................................................................................... 36

4.3 Te ac f de ecge ..................................................................................... 38

4.4 Adaced ecge de b ........................................................................ 40

5. Naa ece: Eeg ad ea .................................................................................................. 43

5.1 Eeg .................................................................................................................................................... 46

5.2 Mea ..................................................................................................................................................... 46

5.3 Wae ...................................................................................................................................................... 47


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5.4 Te edc f e de ........................................................................................................ 49

5.5 Sae ga ad 2030 f aa ga Ee ad e d ...................... 50

5.6 Sae ga baa: Redaa dedaa? ................................. 54

5.7 Eeg ece: Te ( ae e aee) e ! ............................ 56

5.8 Cc .......................................................................................................................................... 57

Pa II. Te Oce: Ecc G ad Pe ....... ........ ....... ........ ........ ....... ....... ........ ....... ........ ....... 59

1. Te ae f e gba ec 2030 ............................................................................................. 59

1.1 Mde e aa ........................................................................................................... 63

1.2 Cc .......................................................................................................................................... 68

2. Te ac f g affece ad e ............................................................................... 70

3. Te Iac f G: Cae Cage ................................................................................................ 72

5.1 Te edc f e de ........................................................................................................ 73

5.2 Cc ............................................................................................................................................ 74

Pa III: Te EU a ad 2030 ................................................................................................................. 75

1. Te ce f e NEMESIS de: dc ......................................................................... 76

2. Ee a e ............................................................................................................................................. 76

2.1 Te f ae (201114): eea baace e a de f GDP ........................ 77

2.2 Te ecd ae (20142018): e ebd dc ....................................... 79

2.3 Td ae (20192030): e ceee ........................................................ 79

2.4 Te ab ae............................................................................................................................. 80

2.5 Seca ee ...................................................................................................................... 80

2.6 Pbc face .................................................................................................................................... 81

3. A e deaed aac .......................................................................................................................... 81

3.1 Caacec f e ee d f ce ..................................................................... 82

3.2 Te cegece ................................................................................................................................ 83

3.3 S ad cee ade f ee ad deeeagg.................. 84

4. Te ceece f ge dc ga .................................................................................. 86

4.1 Caba, aca ad eea f e c ................................................. 86

4.2 Re f e e f Ee .................................................................................................. 86

5. Cc ....................................................................................................................................................... 87

Pa IV. Pc caege ad gae cage f e EU ....... ........ ....... ........ ........ ....... ....... ........ ....... ........ ...... 89

1. A ae EU e d ec ....................................................................................................... 89

2. Facg a ageg d ................................................................................................................................ 93


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Ece ag ad dc age Ee ...................................................................... 93

3. Te EU eed fc ade c: TTIP e e BRIC .................................................. 94

4. Cefga fce Ee ...................................................................................................................... 96

4.1 Te gba de f e eaaa f faca ae e e

aea .......................................................................................................................................................... 98

5. Cae cage caege ........................................................................................................................... 99

5.1 Adaa ad adaa c ............................................................................................ 102

6. Degac cg d e EMedeaea ............................................................. 103

6.1 Eacg cea EMedeaea eg ............................................. 104

7. I e d ec becg e decac? ......................................................................... 105

8. A gba gae cage f Ca: fag ee ebaacg ..................... 107

9. Te ecc eegece f SbSaaa Afca ........................................................................... 109

10. Hdac facg e cage e gae b ea a c caege fEe .............................................................................................................................................................. 109

10.1 Te EMedeaea eeg caege ad ....................................... 110

11. Cc ..................................................................................................................................................... 111

Seeced Refeece .................................................................................................................................................... 113

Ae A. Mage & Mage cea ad aeae cea......................................................................... 125

Ae B. Te e f e NEMESIS Mde: Ee g ad 2030 .................................... 134

Ae C. Caa acca Ca: I eee a e?.................................................. 140

Ae D. Wa eec f TTIP fee ade a BRIC a: e eae f Ida ...... 143Ae E. Ab e Pae e C ............................................................................................. 146

L F

Fge 1 Reeeg ecc g ad e: I ad ac .......................................

Fge 2. UN Ta a cea................................................................................................................... 1

Fge 3. Fe ae ac ce .............................................................................................................. 3

Fge 4. Ta a (g age a e a deede) f b b ..... 4

Fge 5. Wg age a Ca ad Ida ........................................................................................ 5

Fge 6. Cage e gba ab fce, 19802030 ................................................................................ 5

Fge 7. Pa f ea edca ea: MaGE Aeae cea ......................................... 8

Fge 8. Pa f ea edca ea: MaGE Aeae cea ......................................... 8


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Fge 9. Ice dffeea 2030: Aeage GDP e e a % f EU aeage eeced

eg................................................................................................................................................................................... 9

Fge 10. Lee f baa e eg, 2011 ad 2030. UN Pec ........................................ 10

Fge 11. Ubaa ad ce, Cage beee 1985 ad 2010 ................................................. 11

Fge 12. Rega Iee (% f GDP) ....................................................................................................... 13

Fge 13. Caa c ($ b, 2005 da) ........................................................................................... 14

Fge 14. Caa Ie (ad f 2005 US da e caa) ................................................. 14

Fge 15. Gba e a eceage f d GDP, 19802014 ........................................................ 17

Fge 16. Ca f e gd a a eceage f aeadded afacg ad

GDP, Jaa, US ad EU27 (19982011) .............................................................................................................. 18

Fge 17. Cag e gd eae aeadded afacg ad GDP ....... 19

Fge 18. Wd g f ad e ............................................................................................... 20

Fge 19. EU27 adg ae ......................................................................................................................... 21

Fge 20. Dec aeadded e ...................................................................................................... 25

Fge 21. Oea ade gd ad ade afacg dc a % f GDP ..................... 27

Fge 22. Gba ce acc aac b e, B USD ad % f a ad, 2011 ... 28

Fge 23. FDI Ie abe .e. ad FDI (Pae a) ad ae .e.

ad FDI (Pae b). ................................................................................................................................................ 29

Fge 24. Ne FDI % f GDP .............................................................................................................. 29

Fge 25. Tade ad faca f ac ecc deee ...................................................... 31

Fge 26. Ta fac dc ....................................................................................................................... 36

Fge 27. R&D edg cea (ce b USD) ........................................................................... 37

Fge 28. Rea cd ce e e g ................................................................................. 44

Fge 29. T cea f ece e ......................................................................................................... 45

Fge 30. Eeg dc (2005 d e bae) .................................................................................. 50

Fge 31. O ce (2005 USD e bae) ......................................................................................................... 50

Fge 32. Naa ga ce e US, Ee ad Jaa, 19932012 ................................................. 51

Fge 33. US dc f aa ga ............................................................................................................... 53

Fge 34.US e eeg feca ............................................................................................................. 53

Fge 35. Baace f ade afacg & ece aga ea fe; US .EU ($

b) ................................................................................................................................................................................ 55

Fge 36. GDP (a PPP) g caed, 20102030 ............................................................................... 59

Fge 37. GDP g PPP 2030 (be adg) ad GDP e caa PPP ad f USD

(gee ba ca).......................................................................................................................................................... 60

Fge 38. Rega GDP ae. Ce USD ................................................................................................... 61


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Fge 39. Rega GDP ae, a PPP ............................................................................................................... 61

Fge 40. Sae Wd GDP g, PPP decade aeage ................................................................. 62

Fge 41. Cb f dda aabe GDP ee .................................................................... 65

Fge 42. Cag g de cea ad aeae cea ................................................ 67

Fge 43 Gba GDP ae 2030 (PPP) ......................................................................................................... 67

Fge 44 Cb f a ce e g f GDP f EU27 ..................................... 77

Fge 45: Lab dc ad ea age g ae f e EU27 ........................................... 78

Fge 46. Pbc face e EU27 ................................................................................................................... 81

Fge 47. GDP e caa 2010 ad aeage aa g ae f GDP e caa f 2010

2030 ............................................................................................................................................................................... 82

Fge 48: GDP e caa 2010 ad aeage aa g ae f GDP e caa 2010 2020

............................................................................................................................................................................................... 83

Fge 49. GDP e caa 2020 ad aeage aa g ae f GDP e caa 2020 2030

............................................................................................................................................................................................... 84

Fge 50: Aeage aa g ae f ab dc ad ea age f 2010 2030

............................................................................................................................................................................................... 85

Fge 51: Uee ae ad Pbc deb a eceage f GDP 2030 ................................. 85

Fge 52. Re f ee ad ab dc, % dea f efeece

cea, EU27 ................................................................................................................................................................ 87

Fge 53. Baea ade f ad GDP ae f e G3 e age ............................................. 90

Fge 54. IMF a baed ecc fdaea f 2013 ad eced f 2030 ........... 91

Fge 55. E aea afee ece (2012) USD eae ........................................... 98

Fge 56. Dffee degac a: a (1529 a % f a a) ..... 104

Fge 57. Sae gba GDP ( PPP) ag Feed He g ............................................. 106

Fge 58. Wd Aeage: Re f a defcec*, %............................................................................ 107

L

Tabe 1. Vaeadded ad g e caed ........................................................................................ 23

Tabe 2. Gba f f Geefed FDI ( b f USD, aeage 201012) ................................... 30

Tabe 3. Aeage aa TFP g ae ........................................................................................................... 35

Tabe 4. R&D e ................................................................................................................................................. 37

Tabe 5. Gba g ae ..................................................................................................................................... 59

Tabe 6. GDP ad ce: ee 2010 ( b 2005) ad aeage aa g ae

............................................................................................................................................................................................... 78

Tabe 7. Cb GDP g ( aa aeage f GDP g ae) ..................... 79


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Tabe 8. E f ab e EU27 ( ad) .............................................................................. 80

Tabe 9.: Sae f a ee b a ec EU27 ................................................................. 80

Tabe 10. Ma ea FTA ae, TTIP BRIC ................................................................................ 95

Tabe 11. Te c CO2ce f eeabe eeg cee eec EU ebe ae .. 100

Tabe 12. Feed He Idca, eged b GDP (ge = e fee) ....................................... 106


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|

Te a bd f e c f f a.

Pa I e e a gba ed ad cceae a be f aea ee aa

deae f eceed d, ae a g, gbaa ad ece cac.

T a eae ecca ad ea de e aaca bacgd e

eade f e e. F e ceece f e b eade, e e a ae bee

gaed c a a a e ca be ead deede.

Pa II de a a f e gba ec 2030, dceg e e e f

e a ed cbed e ce f a c deg eece e f

ce ad g, b a e f affece ad e. T a a ee e f

e e cea aec a e f aa. Te deaed dec f e

cea cea ad a aeae cea aaabe Ae A.

Pa III decbed e Eea a f da deeed ec e 2030. Te

a ca a a f e a fdg geeaed b a ecec deg eece

fced Ee. Gea dea ae eeed a eaae Wg Dce.

Fa, Pa IV dce e c caege a ae f Ee f e f e d

2030 ad e be egece f gae cage.


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|STRATEC 2030 Fa Re

T e ee e fdg f e eeac cdced f e Eea Saeg ad

Pc Aa Se (ESPAS) gba ecc ed e f 2030 ad

e ae f Ee.

Te e bd a de agg ee f eg eae, cdg eeeeed, ad a acecc de, e f gba cae ad e f e

EU, dg e eece e eea f da c debae.

Te d cceae a e f cca ecc fac a ae fe ecc

g a gba ee ad ffe a dec f e be e f e eac ad ce.

O ga g eeac ae eac edc ab g ae ad

c e, b de a gde f c ae b eeg a aee f e

be ca f c ed f e gba ec ad e c caege e ae

f Ee.

Te fc f e e ecc g, aca ada de f g c

a caa, edca, ecg ad ade, b a e ea e a ee de, eagbe caa ad ca a, ca a e fe.

A e ab gba ecc ed, e ab fe eagee f e

EU a bee ade. B 2030 e EU e ae a ge be f ebe; ee e

acce f e ee caddae f e Baa d aecab cage a

ecc aggegae f e EU. Te acce f Te, ecc a f ab 10%

f EU GDP, d ae a dffeece f Ee, b aga f e gba ec. F

ea eca c fad. Mee ge a e ece acce

f Caa e efeced a ac, e efe g e e e EU27.

T e e e f a cabae eff a de e eee e CEPS ea

ac e aea a e a e CIREM, ISIS ad SEURECO ea, ed eece bLe Fag, Ca Sea ad Pa Zaga.

Ca Acd, A Bee, Maa Be, Aad Fgea, Ge Keda, Iaa Mae,

Maa Pca Ra ad See Bca cbed e.

T dce a beefed f e e f acadec, c ad d ee

acaed ee eca dg e fe f eeac ec.

D G

CEPS Dec


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Te Gba Ec 2030: Ted ad Saege f Ee |

E

Tee deead ce a 2030 e d be ce, de ad ea

ae dffeece GDP e caa ac ce. Tee a db a e eae

eg f da adaced ece d a e eegg ae ece

ce e cac.

T d cf ce ad age a e cac f eegg ece

a ea ee, b e baed d fdaea a ce

eae, ee bed 2030. I a de e e g, ee, c e cae

deae f e cea d ad deee be eaed.

G

Te . Oe ed a a bee deeaed fa a

a g decg eeee. Te ea 2030 g a a ca

a dega: e gba a g eac a aea ad a dece. 1 T

degac g e ae fd ca. Te ge f

e aaab f aa ece cage adca e e ee f a g

daea, ead f ceag fee a a eea ae. Te eegece f a gba

dde ca f ce ead ceaed ee ece f e e ce; b f

e gba a ceae ceae, e ed f g ece e be g.

We da a f e f cc f Ee f bea. F, e

. Secd,

E . If e c age, ca

accae eea e face a f e fe eed f e ede ce

f abad. Hee, be f e ee d a a a age f a

ageg.

Te degac ed a ae a ca a e ega ee: e bge e MENA eg a eaed.

E . Te fe cfc e Eae

egbd d a bece e e a e ca a bece daed b

ee.

. Te ace f ade gd eae GDP a

eaded cdeab e a 20 ea eg e ece a abe

gbaa ae a ce ceag e ade. Hee, a f

ee a bee de e e f eegg ece, e g ed be

ee ade f gd a e begg f e deee. T e cage a

ee ece ae. Mee, ge ce ae ceaed a c, a ea

ea.

1Rg 60 ea afe e bca f e L G e ea a g aeeaced . Te dae d g ccde e edc f ada d bed 1972, b e ea f ea d be a aa, b becae a cba f adace b c ad c e deead edca, eeca f e, ad ed e eae ac fa b ae.


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|STRATEC 2030 Fa Re

A eaed ee, e

. Te

ega afacg ce face a ae eeged Ee, N Aeca ad

ad e Ea Ca Sea ea eae e egaed. Mee, Ca aca,

c a fa a ded a ca f cea ffe dc, e eae

e a a age af f ffg cee a ec ae.

F ,

. Faca ega a ceaed e ee f GDP e

caa. Te ad g f ce e eegg ece ae a c e a

a ac e aca gba faca ae, eeca e edec

e abad. Gba faca ae ge be daed b e ae

ece. Hee aga, Ca ad a a ea ce c f ad FDI

caabe ace e US e EU. T eece d be ae acc

e e eg baea aa ee ec eae ae eegaed a e EU

ee.

Sce e dec f e d ec 2030 aa fce cage e

, e eegece f e ecc ac ae eab gfca ace e.

E, a a

ecc aabe ae eeced dee ag aae e.

. Te ae ga baa e

ceae ce e caa e US b a fe eceage . Ye, e age a abda

dec ce f eeg e e e e afacg gd. Te

eae dece f e US a a ee f (eeg ee) afacg gd e

be efced b e caae adaage e US a agce ad e gg gba

dead f fd eg f a g, b f ge ce eegg

ece. A ceece, e E .

. Te ee bgge e be e ae 2030 a e ae da, ae

e EU, e US ad Ca. Te a dffeece e f G3, Ca cagg

f beg e ae becg e bgge. Te ccea f ecc a e

bgge ee cage; e ce acc f g e a af f gba

.

C. Te c

acc f a ee ceag a f e eegg d ad g aae

dffee f g eeee a e a f faced f dec ce

ad baed a ad gadg f e edca ee f a. Te e eegg

ece, c a Ba, Ida, , ce e EU, Ra ad Te d ae e ae

cba f eg. Te g e EU, b e ace eae

Ca. C ,

203 2.5 I E

. Te c a ae e f eee g (.e. b accag

a ad ca caa) a bece e age ec e d befe 2030,

e f GDP, b a f ade ad b feg dec ee. H,


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; ad b 2030 g ge be e faegg age

ec. Ida ad ee SbSaaa Afca g e eb ge g ae. Ida

e ae e age gage a ad e ae a a a ed f

ace ad g ec a f Ca da.

Mee, 2030 C

a deed e c ccef aeg e c caege:ae, . W a eae

ad ebaacg f ec aa f ee, Ca g eeece a

eee cce, c eg g ae f a aced ed f e ad

fd affecg e gba agee baace. W a eg f ca

e, Ca a a d a e ca feed eeded f a f

bece c e a f g e e ee f GDP e caa e ab e

d a f adaced ec ee. Te a eade aage dec baace

ad deee caege be cca, f e c ef, b f e ee

gba ec.

E 2030

Te aeage aa g ae f Eea a a 0.38% dg e 2000 ad

be 0.22% f 2010 2020 ad 0.12% f 2020 2030. Te E

, ad e eg dece ab fce, cae gfca e

e ec (ee aae, e fdg be ad e ea g).

Te aeage aa g ae f ab dc a 1.5% f 1997 2007. We

eeced be 1.22% b ea f 2013 2020 ad 1.35% b ea f 2020 2030.

Te , a a ga f c cg f a ac f

ee eeac ad deee, de ceae f e a g.

Te cba f c fac dee a ea GD E. Weea e

aeage aa g ae f EU27 a bee 2.6% dg e decade befe c e eeced

a aeage aa g ae f 1.53% f 2013 2020 ad 1.42% f 2020 2030.

Te E

, aca ce a g ee f bc deb, c ad a e e

dc g befe c. Pbc deb f e EU27 acc f 90% f GDP

2020 ad fa 80% b 2030.

Te E

. Tda ee ae f 10.6%

deceae 9.2% 2018. F 2013 2020, 4.8 b be ceaed EU27

e ab fce deceae b 0.2 . F 2020 2030, 1.7 b be

ceaed e ab fce e 5.2 . I 2030, e Eea ee ae

be 6.1%, b

ad fa f beg geeaed ac e U. We e ce

ae a g ee (e Sa), e be faced a decg ab fce

ad e ceece f age ad ceee (e Gea) ae .

F e de f a e Eea ece,

. .

We dged e S ad ceee dg e a decade ad ae


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|STRATEC 2030 Fa Re

eeeced eeg deb be ace, e e ce f Ee ae

gaed ceee e e a decade b be affeced b e dece e ab

fce ad e ce f Eae Ee, e cacg dac be aeed b

e a g.

B 2030 , e ae

eeeced deea e ceee e e a decade eeece eaceae ea age ad ega ceee dg e f a f e ed.

Te dac f ecegece f Eea ece be eae g ce a

a a ea 2020. Afe e ee f deeeagg ad ecegece,

E 2020

. Bed eg e e f bc deb, Ee

a a a ge eed ee ecc ce a ca eace e dc

g. T d f ecc ce ae ecea: ad

.

Ia ad dc ga eed R&D ad a caa ce b a

ce a ca a ceae ae e agbe ae (gaaa caa,bad e, fecfc fa, ec.) ad Ifa ad Cca Tecge

deee ad e. Tee edge ce ae ecea b ffce.

(e ceae f ce, ef f ab ae, ee f e effcec

f bc ec) ag ce a ad dc ecc eface

d ee edge ce.

Te ad ad abe g f eegg ece gge a e fa f

aegc aac Ee ae cde e ea f ade ad ee

ea be affeced b c cage, a ag acc a ecc eg a

gba ee be ae ad ece be ee a eae gba ac.

EU c e eed ae acc e ed a ,

FDI, . A ee

aEU ade e gfca a eaEU ade f ebe ce. B 2030

ge be e cae ad eaEU ade eeced acc f 50% ( f 40%) f

a ade. Te EU ada e cage a f a f a bg, b eae ced,

ec a ae, b e e e.

Te ecfc fdg f e e gge a Ee d ae a e ace aac

Ca, c bd bece e age d ec b a e

a ade ae f Ee.

Sa cc d a f e aac egbd. Degacec a e ca caege f e Medeaea aea d be

dg e e a e bge ee dece ae ad ad 2030. T

g ae eae ga e e f eeg a e a f e f f ecc

cea aea ffe.

Oe c aea ee caege a e. Oe e a f e U feg c

ead ce ae e decac ad e e f a. T bece e dffc


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E .B 2030, e EU ge

de e age ae e d ad ge be e age adg ae f a

a ce a da. Mee, ad adace ea edca ad R&D

eegg ece afg e aae aec f e dece GDP eg

a aae e e f e ca f cgedge eeac ad deee

fe dg Ee gba fece. T ae e e a f Eea

eeac ad ea edca e adca ad ecgca ge ceed

ceca ea.

I e ed , ee, C

E . If dec ebaacg de ae

ace e e e 510 ea a age dec ag ad ee baace e

f. T a e g defaa ee a e gba ee a e eg

ag g d be c age a a eeeced dg e a decade. Te ea

f gba faca ab g e be ee geae.

Te fa f a Eea aeg e gba ec ae ae acc

eg ea dac a g bed e ceece f ece e aea c.

C ae gag eea da cdg , , .

E ad fa dec a e ee f ebe ae de baa cdea , fe eg dege aace ac ce ad

.

Te ab f Ee fece gba ee f ce deed ee e a deda e ge f ebe ae a e EU bde e ece f ece ad ea e ce


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|STRATEC 2030 Fa Re

I

T e a a dcg a efeece cea f e gba ec ad f Ee

2030. T ed defe fdg ad eegg ed ad a e e f

e ae e gba ec ad caege Ee 2030. T a ce eece

c ee e fa f ee ab e be e f ed e e

e decade ad e a e ae e eac. I dg e ad e edeaa ad gge fe, e ae eg f aae, debaed

aa cbed aae aee.

Te aae aa baed e fdg f ee age cae de. Te f

MaGE (Macecc Geea Eb) ad MIRAGE (Mdeg Ieaa

Rea Aed Geea Eb) f gba cae ad e a e, NEMESIS fced

Ee.

MaGE a e deaed de c ee ed geeae g g cea f 147

dda ce. Dee c ee f dea, ae be fced e edc

f e a ece ad ega aggegae. Te MIRAGE a eg ad

ec dac cabe geea eb de deeed ae ade beaa

cea. I ee ed geeae ec ab fe ade f. Te e e f de (caed MIRAGEe) ece deeed cde a a accae deg f

eeg e ad a eag eea ceece. Te a de, NEMESIS, a

ecec de ece dac, c ed ee geeae fe a f

a ac aabe f eac f e 27 EU ce, a e a deaed deee a

eca ee. I baed e dea a e ed ad ge acecc a e

e f g edeedece beee eca ace a ae eegee f a

dac f e. T feae a f e cdea f e a

eca ad geeae e c dac.

Te dc f e cea cea f 2030 baed c ceeed b e

ecg f fe gae cage a cd eee, e d defed ed ad

ce ad e defca f e c caege a b ed ad gae cage

ea f Ee.

Te f e e eece c eddg g gba ed a a

deg de f ecc g ad deee e eae eface f dffee

d eg. F e e f e GDP g ce e e aabe (See B

1)

Fge 1 daga e fe a de f ecc g ad ee cae cage a e

c ecc g ae a ac. F eac de, e egae gg ed

ad ae a edcaed ge ab fe deee f 2030, ag aca ae

acceea deceea e eed f cage ad eae ed ac e d

a eg. Te defed de ae e fg:

Pa ad a caa

Caa ad caa ae

Gbaa ad ade

Tecg ad a ad e fe f dc g

Naa ece


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F 1 : I

: A eaba.

I Pa I, ag f a ad e f a caa, e a eac f e

de ad e ae e ae affec g, ag a e ae deede

deea. T , f ce, a fca: e fac ae a a eac

ecc g. Ideed, ee ageee, ee a eeca ee, ab ee,

e e g e, ade deee g g b ade. Sa, e ece

ae a f ecc dc ad e aaab ad ce affec ecc g,

e dead f ece deed e ecc cce.

A e deca ac f g cae cage a fca, a e d

cde e feedbac effec a cae cage a ae e ec (ag

fca a e 2030 e acceabe, a e geae ac f gba ag

cea ae eeced afe 2050 ee Pa II).

I add, f e fac ae g eed. Te ded a Fge 1 acc

f e f e be age ad e effec ac fac. Tecg deee

eca ae eec. Sag f e 1980, ec eaed a ecg

ad a cd be cdeed deede f g b a ee eee e

a ea a f edge fce eaed eeca edg R&D ad a

caa. Fee, a ad ecg ae a ed degac deee

ad acce caa ae, c ae ecea fac f e deee.

Te gg ace f ece ad e ageg f e a a ecg ad

a ca be cdeed e a aea f afacg dc ad e

deee f e ITC, b a e a bac ece e eacae ca be deeed a

e effce fa. Tee cd be a e fe f dc g f

ada adabe, dc, ec. Ia a e edca ad

eacae g eefe bece eee eea, f ce ad e a f

fe, b a f g.


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|STRATEC 2030 Fa Re

Te dec f e aae cea cea f e d ec 2030 dced b

e gba de eeed ec Pa II.

Pa III fce Ee ad decbe Ee a aggegae ad g f ce

e ad 2030. Pa IV dce e c caege e f e d 2030

e Ee

B 1 GD

I e, ecc g, ad aca GDP g (ad ee), ce e e aabe.

T de ea a e d cde e eae f efae ae a a. We

cceae GDP (ad ade) becae e aabe a ae de dead ee

e cee f gba e ad fece ae aed. We e fe f e d ec

dced, e efeece aabe ca eefe be GDP, b ceeed b ade ad

ee.

We ae aae f e eae eaed aeae ad ceea eae f GDP, e caed

g bed GDP eae. I ce a a ea f eeac b a e e.Ag e caege e eed eae e cb f ed dc f

aeed gd ad ece. Ae eea e, eeca f Ee, e dffc f bag

eabe aaded dc eae e ea cae ad edca ec.

A a e f eag ca be aed cage gaa; ag ee e e

cefc eae b edece e, ee gg f e e a e

cg decade, bece e ad e gaed ag ea ad e ad a

ec ba. Hee, e ace a a aeae a fac dc

g, ecc g ceae a f fe c deabe b fa de

e ce f e.


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|1

I. D G

T a dedcaed e dec f eac f e a de f ecc g e ae

defed e dc. Eac f e dffee cae ca a dec f fdg

ad/ eegg ed ad e edc f e de (MaGe ad Mage) a e

2030. Sc fdg ae egaed adda e a gged e eg

eae.

1. We a dega, e ae de f g ad e e ee a

ca e cea e e e, dee cdeabe cea e ab e

eac fe a f e ae.

Tee ed ca be beed a ee d eg: a g g d

a becae fe fag, fe eecac ceag, ad g c ae bee

edcaed a d e. I a dg beee ee aggegae e dcg

degac deee: a a, gage a ad e ab fce.We degae ae eeed a a, gage a e eea

aabe f ecg e ea f ecc g. F aca g e degee

c ea aca ed, ae e eg ab fce. Tee ee aabe

a cege e ecc ad degac ed ae abe. Hee, ce

e be e cae e ed 2030, e a e eaae.

1.1 Te de acceed a ec ae e f e UN. Accdg ae

feca f 2010, e gba a ceae b ab 1 b eac 8.5 b b

2030. I de aecaed, ee, a e UN cde ee be aa, eac

g a ae dffee a e e a ge e ed, a Fge 2.We ae a fced e ed aa, c ee e gba

a gg 2050, de e aa e gba a d ea

befe 2030 ad a decg eeafe. B ca, de e g aa, e gba

a d ede e g .

F 2.

: Ued Na Pa d.

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

Med fe

L fe

Hg fe

Pa


20/166

2 |STRATEC 2030 Fa Re

Te fac dgg e dffee cea e fe ae 202530: 2.79 cde

e a f e gaa e, 2.29 f e ed ad 1.79 f e . T

e a dffeece a a beee e eee f ab 1 b ee f

2030, a 9 b e gaa cea ad ab 8 b e aa

cea. Ia, e fe ae f e aa e be e eacee

ee dce a aa a a ea a 2030, ad ee de e edaa

e, abe e eacee ee f 2.1.2 Te a a ca, f ce,ee ceag f a e dee a fe ae de ageg, b fe ae

ae ge a g ae deceae ce e.

Oe e a decade, e ed aa f e UN ec ed, baed

ad, .e. aca a g a a bee e a edced. Accdg

Bgaa & Baa (2002) d e, aeage, ac ce ad feca. Te

ad ba age e ge e ec ed, f 1% f a 5ea ec 6%

f a 30ea ec a de a fe ae decg fae a eeced

(degae ae a edec ae a e ea abe).3Ag a e aeage

ba f e a a ae e 2010 ec, e d eec e 2030 a

be 4% e a e edaa cea. Te dffeece f 4% d be a eac

ea e dffeece beee e ed ad e aa, c ee c e

e aeae.

Ge ac ecd f e UN ec, be a b 2030 e a bb4

ae bee defed, e ee a a aa, ea ee decg, gba a

ca be eeced.

T a ae a ca ca. Te dead f ece ce

ceae a ce ceae (ad a c age ae f e gba a d beg

e dde ca). B e ee aa ece d ge aea be g

. A a ceece, c e f a ae e cage. Te e

cd c Ca, f eae, e e decade f a dece.

Ee a abe gba a, e a dffeece ac eg ea.

Te fe a f e d dced b e UN Pa D, daed Fge 3, a ce ae aead ce eacee fe, cdg N Aeca

ad Aa. Ee be a ee. O Afca a e g fe ad ee ge

ae e bSaaa eg (SSA). T ea a f e a g e

fe, aee e ae, ce f deeg ad eegg ce, eeca SSA5,

c g be e a eg gfca a g b 2030.

2 Te eacee fe e aeage be f cde e ae e e cdbeag ea

dce a aa a 2.1 cde. Te ea e f a cd eeded ae f e cde d e aeg age (ee (://aac.g/e/eaceefeca21bageafgadge/#a.P1KIS.df).3See Bgaa & Baa (2002) f e deaed dc.

4 B(1968) b Pa R. Ec aed f e a aa f a e 1970 ad 1980de ea, a e a e a cea eaa, ad adcaed edae ac ag. Fea f a a e ee deead e 1950 ad 60, b b ad a bge dea a de adece.

5T de ea a fe ae ea a g a e ae da. UN ec eec eae fa c f abe 5 da, d be 3.5 202530 de e aa cea (4.4 e g ec). T e a bge b ad 2030.


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Te Gba Ec 2030: Ted ad Saege f Ee |3

F 3. F

: UN Pa D.

1.1.1 Te a f a ege f g a ad fe e f ae a e

eabed ee c a bee beed a eca de. Dg e f

age f e a, e ae f e gage a e a a ceae.

T a e deee a e, , e caa ce. A g a

e e, ab fce aca ae ad ee ae d deeae, a

e e ae f e gage a ead a ceae e caa, c

fe caed e . Reg e SSA Ida ae eeg ae,c d e e g ec.

Te adaced ce ae a c e adaced age f degac a. Te

eeeced a ea ceae fe afe e ed f e Secd Wd Wa, b e

e 1970 e b ae aed fa. T bg e adaced ce e ,

ea, degac dded a e be f e aaabe e g ad

e e d ceaed. T ceae e caed a ( ee f e d

deedec a) ade ga ce e caa eae acee f a e. Hee, a

geea afe e fa b ae ( e 1990 ad 2000), e a a

egae affeced.

Tee degac deee ae decade f a , b ee edece a e

g ca ae cdeabe ecc ace ce ea e aae fe ccded a ge g f e ec. Mag (2013)

age a ea f e a ccded b ad b ecc g (ad

ae ae). Fge 4 a e a eaed a ce 2.4 Jaa ad

1990, e ea f e Jaaee bbbe. Te a e fe c Jaa, b ced

ceae e US ad Ee. Te ea f e US ad Ee (ad 2010 ad 2015,

eece) ae e aed a f Jaa, b e fac a e a c

dece e a ga ce e caa bece ade acee. A ed f

ged eae bece e e.


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F 4. ( )

: O eaba UN daa.

: S a defed a a f g age a deede

A aged b Mag (2013), e f e gfca fac e e f e a

a e f f e e ab fce, c, , a bab ceced e

dece fe ae. A fac a e eaced a aea, e a ac

e a ce f e ad ageg f e a. A dece e Eea

a f ab 2.2 2010 1.6 2030 d a fa f ab 1.5% e ea

e e e 17 ea. T e a GDP e caa g ea aga ee f e

dc e e ceae b 1.5% e ea. U (ad) 2010, e degac

dded ad eaed e e dec a e a ad bee ceag b

a e eceage e ea. Te egae ac f e e degac fac

be baa b Ee ad e US. A a caged ae f dcceae e e, e egae ac e g ae f GDP e caa fa b e

eceage .

Te ad eced be ee ae f Ca, e a d ea

ad 2015. U a dae, e a ae bee ceag b a 2% e ea

(f ab 2 2000 2.6 2015). F e , dece b ab 1% e ea

2030. T e a, , e aa GDP e caa g Ca

d b ab ee eceage de degac fac.

Mee, f, a Jaa, e degac dded a degac bde a ab

e ae e a e ee cce a g, e Cee ec g deg a

a d e e e befe 2030.

1.2 U e f 2030, ee be e cea a e fe e f e

gage a becae ee be e 15 ea d 2030 ae

aead bee b. Te cea a de e cce e def f g age.

Tda, aae e gage a ea e c aged 1564, becae

a ce 65 e ega eee age. Hee, ceag e e edca,

ge fe eecac ad e e ee f g e a a f ce c ed

0.000

0.500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

3.000

3.500

4.000 CHN IND JPN

USA Ee SSA

Jaa CEU & US c


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ea a a 2070 age c a be e aae b 2030. I a ce, e

a eee age aead g ad, ee bed, e age f 67.

Te dffeece dac beee e a ad gage a aca a

f e ce, Ida ad Ca, a 5 ae. Accdg a

d bed b KKR Ig ad baed e UN Wd Pa Pec, Ca

gage a ea befe 2020 ad e dece ad, eea a f Ida

d ce ceae ab 2050. A a e, e Ca g age a da e a 20% age a a f Ida, b 2030 Ida g age a be

ab 10% age a a f Ca ad e age e d. T ae a ac e

ab .

F 5. C I

: KKR Ig

Te gage a dcae e ea fce aaabe a c, b ee

ae age dffeece e degee c ea aca ed, c eaed b

e ab . W d, e eeg a cage e c

f ab . Tee e db a ece decade ae bee caaceed b gfcacage: ceaed feae aca, e g f e ab fce de b e

gee eaa f ecda edca; ea edca g e ae

dec adaced ece, ad a ageg a.

F 6. C , 19802030

() () F

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

A C D

E A

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

%

C D E A


24/166


: MaGE ea ad ec.

Te aeage ab fce aca f e e US a 20% a e begg f 20

ce (Ca, 2000); a Fge 6 ce 60%. Ce, ac ae f

e abe 50% a adaced ece, e ece f aggad e Ia,

ee e eceage 44%, ad eadg ce e Sede ad Dea, c

eaced 67% 2010. Te ceae a e e f cage ca ade ad fe

dec e e ad, ad a a ceae e dc f e ee. Wde feae aca cg ad e eaa f e ec ae a

aed a fdaea e, b ceag e c f eeg e ab ae

ad b ceag efed cca.6

I e Eea ce e Pad ad Ia, ee e ea f cac, ad

ee ae deed e ce ee a ee a bee beed e ece a. I

e fe ce, ee, ge a bee de, gag a a aea a

ae bee eaced.7Fe deee 2030 cd eefe cde a cegece

Ee ad ee ce beed fe ( 65%), b a fe ceae

eac e ee f ae aca (70% aeage e EU 2010) e.

Oe aec be cdeed a ge edcaa ee ceae e c f

eeg e ab ae, ad de a age aga a dece aca. Ogba de, MaGE, cae ee eca ad, a aed Fge 6 (ae b),

edc baa ceae feae ab fce aca f Ida, Kea, e Mdde

Ea ad N Afca (MENA) ad SSA ce, eea a g deceae feee f

Ca ad a f Ee ad e US. Te ae e, c a aea cee a

f gace, de e fac a e e ea beee edca ad ab

aca g f eage e b de d e f e de ad ge

c, c ae ceag e be edca.

1.3 Te ea f ecc g deed , ee a, e be f e

e ab fce, b e a (.e. e ee f edca). I de ageed agcae ad ee a edca a a fdaea e a a ege f ecc

g, a e bed e e ecc ee. Saed edcaa

ea a caaceed adaced ece ce ce e a ed. We

aa e a fced a ad ecda edca, g da

cce a eegeae f gc gadae eg e.

F a ea e US ad bee e eade deee, b e daa a ee

a bee a ce f cegece beee Ee ad e US, eeca e a decade.

Ma Eea ce ae e acee, ad ee eceed, e EU2020 age f 40% f

e c aged 30 34 ceg ea edca.

Ecc e ad eca de eae e ace f ea edcaa

aae adaced ece. A aged b Ag e a. (2006), a g ed abfce (eag ea edca aae) eace dc g e

gfca f ce a ae ce e ecgca fe. T ae becae

ged ab bee eed geeae a a e fe, eea e

ed ab bee ed a. Ue edca , ee, fdaea

e cea ad eea f a. Te de e ed ce

6F a ee f e eae, ee Ce e a. (2012) ad Lead e a. (2013).

7F (2009).


25/166


e: e g a fac dc eeed a a fc f e ae f g

age a a ceed ecda ad ea edca. Secda edca a

cdeed a f e ecg dff. Te a a a ceae

ea edca f 10% ae TFP g b 0.5%.

I ce, e d eed a e daa ea edca be abe

gage e ea f a c ae ad eeece TFP g. I ea, ee,

dffee ce de e dffee be, e cae dffee a e dead e dffee cc. T ae aca Ee ad Ca. F b

aea, e de ed eaa daae a a e dffee ce f caed

e ffca ac f e eg. I cae, daa cec a be f

ce beee ee, ce a ceae ce f e e ae f affa a a

ca f ecc c aeg.

A fa a e EU cceed, Ea e a e fe bgge ece (e Bg 5) ae

gada ae f ad 25%, b e adad gba ce, Ba & Lee (fcg), a

12% f e ae ce, e a af a c. Mee, accdg e Ba & Lee

fge, e ae f e a a a ea degee a ee e ge

e US a Ee, eea e ga c ae accdg Eea fge (c

a a e dffeece beee e gada ae f e ge c US ad eEU Bg 5 e a).

Tee dffeece daa cceg ea edca ae gfca e aeg ee

Ee ca cac e e caa ce f e US. Te Ea daa d gge a

e dffeece edca ee ag ae c, c d a e EU eacUS ee f ce e caa, ded, f ce, a e Eea ea a caa

ed effce.

Regadg Ca, e daa dceace ae ee ae. F eae, a 2010 Cee

gee a f ed ad ge edca ef e a a be f ee

a ge edca f 98 2009, c d be aae ee e e

eae f Ba & Lee. Te ffca bece dbe a a b 2020; e ae f

e eceed ge edca d e a e 20% f e a aged2059. Te Cee M f Edca e a aead 2013 aae 7

e gadae ee e ab ae. T d ced a ea gada ae

f ab 30%, ge a aa c e f g abe 20 .

Oe e f Ca d be a ee b 2030, e c ae a ee ea

edca e, g e ab f e c bece a a cee f

a. Te aeae e (ce e a f e ca eade) d be

a b e ae e , ea edca ae bee afed de e

c e ecea cd bece a a .

We d ae c e f Ca, b ge e cea e f ea edca f

g, a aeae cea a de aae eaae e ac f a fae

edcaa ea. I aeae cea, e eed f e cac e gba

eade (e US) a bee dbed eae e ae ade a a ca be

eeced baed a daa. A Fge 8 d a e ae f e

gage a a ceed ea degee ceae c fae a e

cea cea ad b 2030 eace 40% (ead f 31%) f Ee, 17% (ead f 12%)

f Ca ad Ida, b ea be 10% SSA. I cea, e cac f a a

eegg ae d be ge ad e EU d a eeece a ge g f

ab 0.5 % e ea de a fae dc g.


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F 7.

: MGE A

F 8.

: MGE A

: MaGE ea ad ec.

1.4 MMga a ce a f ega a feca, ee g b de

cage e gba a. Mga a aca a e f Ee B e

dffc feca accac, ece g be e ef dead e

ada fac a deee ga ae e ee.

Te ee a fac f ga ae e : ) ce dffeea beee e

c f dea ad e c f g, ) e ee f edca f e ea

ga, ad ) /e age.8M eca de fc e f , ag e ge

c a e ea ga. Ice e dea c caed e ca e(cbed e bab f ee) ea e e e eee, gee

e c f ga. Ma & Q (2007) eae a f ga be cee, a

age dffeea f a ea 3040% ecea beee e c f g ad e

dea c.9T de a ef efeece gage fe ga ee. Te

de e ed edc a e ce dace beee Ee ad e deegece, e f GDP e e (PPP), cdeab. I Fge 9e cde

e a edg eg.

Te e e a ee b 2030, e e be 10% f e Eea ee

SSA, 30% N Afca (NAF), 22% Ida, 40% S Aeca (SAM) ad 81% Te.

A a ceece, f e ecc aec ae acc a a fac, c e

ga ca be eeced f Te ad S Aeca, ad e f e eag

aea, eeca bSaaa Afca.

Te OECD (2009) a a a e, edcg a b 2030 ce cegece ac

ce ae edced e eae aacee f da adaced ece. Te

8 Age ad edca ae dda feae a fece e dec egae. Yg, edcaed ee aegeea e be. A e fe ae fag gfca e MENA eg, e NAfca bgea a ad e f f ga f a eg Ee a dece baa.

9Accdg Mada (2005), a 10% ceae e ee f ee GDP e dea c ceaeega e de f 2.6 e 100,000 dda e g c.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

E%

US CHN IND

JPN EU SSA

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

%

US CHN IND

JPN EU SSA


27/166


f a ee a da (e.g. f Te Gea, Mec e US) g

ge be a a a e e e f aac Aa, c a Jaa Kea.

Te ga ee f N Afca d ea, b d ea. Ideed,

fe ee be aead. Accdg Ea, Afca aead de eae

f e a ce f EU ce ede e EU a eceage a e

ceae. T ae e ea ac f ceaed ga, e aeae cea e

aaed ae e e f a adda 2 ga (caed e ceacea) beee 2010 ad 2030, addg e c f aae 20 f da

Eea feg ede.10 I a ceae ga d

baa ae e a f e Eea ec.

F 9. I 2030: A GD % E

: SAM = S Aeca; SSA = SbSaaa Afca; NAF = N Afca; IND = Ida; RA = Re f Aa; ad TR =Te.: MaGE ea ad ec, CIREM.

1.5 F e f e , e a 50% f e d' a e ba aea. 11

Degae eae a ee Afca, af e a e ce b 2030 12ad

Aa be e e a 50% f e gba ba a a ge

(2050). B ca, Ee' ba a a a eceage f e gba a e

ae cdeab. Fge 10 a ag a eegg ad deegece a acee e ae ee f baa a da' deeed ce

e e decade, e eed ad ce f e ba a e deeg

d fa geae da a a 50 ea ag.13

10Accdg e ae Ea fge ac, e EU27 feg a (ee edg a EU27ebe ae ce f a EU27 ebe ae) 1 Jaa 2012 a 20.7 , eeeg 4.1%f e EU27 a. T e d add 13.6 e g a EU27 ebe ae ce f ae EU27 ebe ae 1 Jaa 2012.11

Defg ba a bee a dffc a ad ee c ageed def. Eac c defe ba a ad ca efe ce, , age, cba cae. Tee ae a be f aace c cea ae ed deee a a ba aea .

12McKe Gba Ie (2010).

13UN Pa D (2010).

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

SAM SSA NAF IND RA Te

2012

2030


28/166


F 10. L , 2011 2030.

: UNDESA, Wd Ubaa Pec: Te 2011 Re.

Ge aga a adaced ce, g a ba g

be edeeed eg. Uba g a acaed ea ce g,

b e Wd Ba' ae Wd Deee Re a e ea e

Aa ce, a Afca ce a g ceae e e f e ba a

a ecea bee acaed g. Ee ecdg e eee cae f Lbea

(c eeeced a c a dg e ed e), a f Afca age ce,

cdg ab Ngea, a a bg ceae a aea be eae dce

, ad e ce a ae g f e Aa eae (Kea, Gaa ad

Ea) ae dg de ad eae. T ea de f baa g

b ceae cee gae ad ae e gadg f e ee f e

a.

Ce ae a eacg ecedeed e ad e be f egace ac e gbe

g, g e a e aa ece e. Hee, e ae

f ba g e e e decade a g dffee f e a, aegace bece fe ed b ca ad ca ad bdeed b eca

cge, c face egace ad deeag aa ad ea cd.

Te eba ba aea g fae a c cee a c aea de

ceae ad f g ad afacg. Mea eg e e

dc ceae eeg. B 2030, ee be a ea 40 age baa ad

aa eeg (NIC, 2012).

Te e f baa g ed agca dc. Sce ea e, e

eece f c fe a agca c a ba f fd b adg

e cde. I e agca dc e g a a fa fa ca

feed a ba ede a a gfca ae f e a ca ede ba aea

ad be egaged afacg ad ece. Te e f cefc fag a eabed a

decg ae f e d a feed a e e. Ubaa a e ead a a a f e d a c dc e ecae, ad e a, c

dc e fa a ced e e e. F ace, e US, e

e fae (de b g dc e ad aea ad age aea e fa),

fag fae ce 1% f e a b ae abe feed e e 99%.

Ubaa ce ed e de f aba ga. Oe a de

g fe ae a a aea, cbed ed ee e,

aca f e agaa f a fae. Uba aea ffe bee b ad

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Afca Aa Ee La

Aeca &

Cabbea

N

Aeca

Oceaa

2011

2030

%


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Te

edcaa e. Tee

bee fe ad a ge ce

Fa a b ea e

ad ecc g, a e a

ad e eegg ce

a ce f dec dea

gg affe dde ca a ce e fe.14

F 11.

: Wd Ba.

Te Wd Ba' ae Wd

ce 1985 2010. B g

, a Afca c

ecea bee acaed

c a dg e ed

a bg ceae a aea

fg e Aa eae (Ke

Te e eae e e f

ecage b ad ecage

14Te age f e Cee geba ede b 2020. Pa b

Gba Ec 2030: Ted ad Saege f

cd eee a cee f a ed

ba aea.

a a caeadeffec e beee

e ae f face ee ee

cceaed ce. Ubaa a e

d eegg ce, g ge c

e g edg face. T ce

, C 1985 2010

Deee Re e cee a

ea e ae ade be be. A Fge 1

e a ceae e e f e ba

g. Ecdg e eee cae f Lbea

), a f Afca age ce, ab

e eae dce , ad e c

a, Gaa ad Ea) ae dg de a

b cea deee, ad gge a

g ae a, e ae deca.

e af 60% f e a f ad e, ad, a ad c f e ae a

Ee |11

e ee a

baa

a Ca

a e f e

f a

eeced

Aa

1 e g

a a

(c ad a

Ngea, a

e a ae

d eae.

e ce

1.4 b ead ace.


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2. C C MA g ae f ee ca caa e f e e cd f g. Oe e

a decade a ceac gba ed a bee e ceae e ae f caa

acca c a bee accaed b e ea f e faca e geea.

Te ea f face aeaed ae ed a a adda fac f g, b e

c f 200809 gge a a a ceaed b e ced b. We e e

fc f face cae ag e be ee ec, ee ce 200708

eea a e faca e a aa bee abe fd e be ee

e.

I adaced ece, e face a bee fg, b agde e ee. I

dffc a ee cba ca ad ce 2030. Eeece f

afea f ec faca ad deb ce gge a deeeagg g ae a

ged egae ac g ad ee. Hee, cea aea

ea g becae a eae f e e c cd efce edec, eea a c

e f cfdece ad a egeg f e e aea bag e g e

ee eceg e g. Te de e e ae a ee be be

ece ad ad a ee ad ag be deeed aga bfdaea fac, c a ageg.

2.1 I Te gba aeage ee ae ca caa a ceaed cdeab e e a

decade eac ab 28% f GDP, eea a 2122% f GDP dg e ea 2000.

B ee ae ae deged ac a eg, ceag cdeab e

eegg ece ad agag ee fag e adaced ce. Te ee

ae eegg ce ad a ab 33% f GDP, e e gea faca c a

ed a a fa ee adaced ece, efcg ge e ed. Te

e a e EU ad e US ee baa be 20% f GDP, eadg

ad 15%. Te ec f e de ed ee gge a ee adaced

ce d ece a ee ea be a beed befe e c, b eee dece. Mc age fa ee ae (a a ae f GDP) ae eeced

e eegg ece, ae Ca ad Ida.

Sc edc ab eegg ae ca e e ec f e

IMF, accdg c e ee ae f Ca d ea abe 45% f GDP

e ed f e ce decade, ead f e 35% edced b e de. Te de

ae a e ebaacg f e Cee ec aa f c (ad e)

ae ace ae ad. T e Cee gee ffca ga; g e

Cee ec a aabe ba a de ee a ecea. Te de cacae

c a aabe a ad dffe f ee ed eaa, c cae

d ead ge baace.


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F 12. I (% GD)

: MaGE, Ce.

Ge e ag eg f e eegg ae ece, a ceag a f gbaee ae ace ee ad e caa c be ee a a f adaced

ece. Te Wd Ba cacae a a fe ea e a ee deeg

ce d eceed a f (da) gce ce ad a b 2030 e ae f

deeg ce e gba a d g abe 60%.15T d be caed e

a ab 2000, e deeg ce acced f e e 20% f e

gba ee a.16

2.2 Sadad ecc e d a ee ca be a e de f g, b a

effec ea. A ceae e ae f ee ead a a ge

g ae, b becae ee ef a f aggegae dead ad becae a gecaa c ceae ea . Hee, ce a ge caa c a bee eaced

gg. I e g a ge ee ae e a a

ge c f caa ad a ge ee f e caa, b a eae ge

g ae.

Mee, e aaabe eca edece dcae a ceag e caa c e

e ead ad deceag e, g a afe a cea ee ee a c

ge ee eff e a c ge ee f e e ce e

a ed a eded. Te a ed dg c ge ee a a

g ac g ca be ae g ea a decade e deedg e

ag .

Tee aec, a ge ee ead ea ge g ad a ea ed ca a a g e, ce a e deadg gba g dac

ad e ea dage f eee cce f faca ab, a e eeece f

Jaa a . We age a a a eee cce g e ae Ca

ea gfca ceece f gba caa ae.

15Wd Ba (2013) Caa f e Fe Sag ad Iee a Iedeede Wd, Wag,D.C.

16Te Wd Ba (2013) e a a Ca ae acc f e e af f a gba ee afacg, g a b 2030 a da ae f e gba caa c be c.

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

USA CHN IND

JPN EU27 SSA


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Oe e dffeece beee eegg ad adaced ece da e a f caa

aaabe f eac e. Te eed f cegece e aabe deeed b e

dffeece ee ae (a g dffeece ae , ece f SSA).

A eaed abe, e de edc a eegg ce ca be eeced aa a

ae g ae f caa acca, ee f aed e a e ee ae. Te

gba caa c ce ceae. Ca eb a eea ceae f

caa c, c eac e ee f e US e EU b ad 2030, ee f eee ae dece cdeab f da ee. T age a caa c , f

ce, dbed e a c age fce. F e ce, e caa c

ceae deae, a a age a f ee eeded ffe deeca

e eg c. Te EU caa c ea abe e US ee a ee

ae a eced ea ge. Jaa a eca cae, a a fa a f caa

c.

F 13. C ($ , 2005

)

F 14. C I (

2005 )

: MaGE ea ad ec.

I e f db f caa, accdg Wd Ba (2013) eae b 2030 e e

af f e a caa c be deeg ece.

Te e aabe f dc ( g) , ee, e a caa c, b e

c e e (ec ca caa e, e caa ab a (K/L). Te

ec f e de, Fge 14, gge a e dace caa/ab a

beee e eade (Jaa, e EU ad e US) ad e e ca be ece 2030,

ge e e f e gf da. Dee ee ae f abe 30% f GDP, e a f

Ca caaab eac eae f e US EU ee 2030, ag, a

abe, e a caa c f e c be aae a age a a f eUS e EU. T becae e ab fce f Ca ab ee f e age a

a f e EU.17

Jaa a a eca cae eec caa e, c g, b

ce ceae becae e fce decg ad. Te eadg f

17 I cea a e Cee caa ab a d ge c ce a f e EU f e c ee aa ce ee ae f e 45 % f GDP.

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

US CHN IND

JPN EU SSA

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

US CHN IND

JPN EU SSA


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Jaa f caa e eefe ea caeged. Hee, e ca f

ac ge age ae ad a ge g ae.

Te cdeabe ag f e ga caa ab a d g ad ad a

ag e ga age a e caa ab a e e deea f ab

dc. A cea dffeece age ae beee eegg ad adaced ece

ea 2030, b be c e gfca a da.

2.3 A ee a be faced e ed b ag. T b def e a e gba

ee: e gba ee ae a ea e gba ag ae. Hee, de

d e a e ee f eac dda c ec, a e dffeece beee

ag ad ee ea e ce acc baace f e c.

A c e f e gba ec d gge a e c ad ageg adaced

ce d face e bd f e caa c e e a f e d.

Rea dffee, ee. Te eegg ece ae ceaed e ag ae ee

e a e ee ae e e a e e a decade eegg ae

ae, aeage, ceacc e.I e MaGE de age ceacc baace ae gada eaed e e, baed

e dea a age ceacc defc ae aabe. T e a e ge

ag ad ee ae f a a a a e aa ee. A ceece

Fge 12 abe, a f de f aa, dec ee b a e

e f ag, c ae eeced ea c ge eegg ece. T

ce ec f e Wd Ba c dcae a a ceag ae f gba

ag (e 60%) be geeaed eegg ce.18

2.4 F: A ?

Te e f e faca ec cec ae ee e. I eeface de ce a de f ge e g, b e e faca e

fa ca ce a bace g. A effce faca e a eec e

be ee ec ca a g f e e, ee.

Te gea faca c a ed a e ae f eca eeac a eeae e

beee face ad g (c a ca beeed be e befead). Se f

ee de fd edece f a ea ea beee face ad g, g

a a ee a ed, ca f ad 100% f cedGDP, f c a age

faca ec ge fe ecc g.19 Hee, e ea a age

faca ec g dae ecc g ae ded.

We d ae a ace e, b e bee a ee a g ea beee

e ee f deee a eaed b GDP e caa ad e e f e faca e.T eaed e ega, beed e cae gbaa, a e e f

ad faca ee, eeca FDI, a e eaed GDP e caa. B

ed ae a caef dceed b e Wd Ba (2013).

18Ad ab d f be geeaed Ca.

19See e.g. Cecce, S. ad E. Kab (2012), Reaeg e Iac f Face G, BIS Wg Pae38 ad Paa, U., J.L. Acad ad E. Bee (2012), T Mc Face, IMF Wg Pae 12/161.


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Te cba f ad g ad e edec f a faca ec ead eae

ce a GDP e caa ceae a e faca ec eegg ece

be eeced g b c e a a GDP ee ce. Ge a e faca

ec eecg adaced ce f a e ca eec a e ad f

e c f faca ac ad eegg ece.

Hee aga, e a dg beee c ad f. Te ae f g f face

be a geae eegg ece ad e acc f a a f e f fag. B da adaced ce acc f e a a f e c f gba

faca ea. I ae e e befe aed c be b a

eegg ece.

Rad g f faca ac ae aeae eea faca c. T

dage eeca ace eegg ce, e faca ae ae fe ae ad

daed b ba, ceeed b e eedae a ef bae ace.

Oe d eec a be f faca ce e e e decade. Eeece a

a faca ce ae e e ce c deed feg caa f. T

a a ce g eea baace ee ca eeece faca c

(Jaa a a cae ). B ee ce ed be e ace e ad e

c e de a eed eea . Eegg ece g ceag fa dffee caege: e ea eea baace ee g

ffe f a be f bb cce caa f, ea eg aace

f e IMF e e, eed, ega facg aagee, c a e Cag Ma

ageee. Te g eea baace ee (e.g. Ca) g a eeece

faca ce, b e d eed eea aace d, ea ffe

ece.

I e Ee facg e e be, a faca e a

deeeagg ae. I de aed a e ecace f ba eed ced

ae e ece. I ea e aa ed b eeece. Se

e edece20gge a decg ba ced ecea ca ece afe

a bed afe a faca c.

2.5 CIee ad caa ae ae e deea f e gba ec. We fd a

ee defe ac a a bae g. O e ca, e eegg

ce d edce e ee ae ad a ecee bd f caa. B,

ee g ee eegg ece, ead a cdeabe

ag, a ce, f e ge ga a e e f caaab a da.

Iee ad ag ceag gae eegg ece ad faca ac

d ead e a a ce eegg ae. I e aca

f caa a faca ae a g ce a be. Te eee ad ea

f faca ac eegg ae bg e ea f faca c, c

cd bece e ce ea eea baace.

20See Ta, E. ad C. Ue Ced ad g afe faca ce, BIS Wg Pae N 416, J

2013.


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3. GGbaa ca be decbed a a deg, deeeg ad eedg f dde

ececede a aec f cea ca fe, f e ca e ca,

e faca e a21. Me ecfca, ecc gbaa efe e geae

gba cecede f e dc f gd ad ece (.e. ade), a e a ceag

f f ee (.e. FDI). Gbaa a bee e bec f ee debae e e a

decade ag ee ad e geea bc ae, ad de cdeed a e de

f g. I e eefe f e ace deadg e f e

gba ec b 2030. I ec e ee edece f a ad eegg ed,

eg e cea aec f b ade, gd ad ece, ad ee f,

FDI aca. We e ee be fe deee.

3.1 Udeab, e ace f ade ceaed ae e e a decade. Te ded

e Fge 15 a e a f gba e gba GDP ceaed f be

20% e ea 1990 e 30% a e ea f e gba ced b 200708.

F 15. G GD, 19802014

:IMF, Wd Ecc O.

Te eg ece ed a a d, fed b a aa ece. IMF ec 22

gge a a d ea aga b ab 2018, ag ad e ee e

gba ece f 2009 eeeed a ea aeed a ea e f a

gee ed.

Te ded e cde aEU ade c, e eece f e Sge Mae, ca be

cdeed a ea ade, a ca ade e N Aac Fee Tade Aea (NAFTA).

T ae ega ega, b ce ae bee ae . Te e gge a

21Hed ad McGe 1999, . 2.

22Wd Ecc O (WEO) daabae, A 2013.

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Wd E a % f GDP

Wd E Ia EU Tade

Wd E Ia EU & Ia NAFTA Tade


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gfca ega a bee ag ace a e ega ee ad f EU ebe ae; e

cee f ecc gbaa ad Eeaa ae ceeded aae.23

A aged ae, ag cdeed a gba ee, ade gbaa d be e

accae ded a a ed ad g ega ega f gd ae, e

aface f c becg e gfca adaced ece ee ece ae

acg ceag aceTe e f a ad egag ad gbag d ec aa dee f

e fac a ade g ad dec affec afaced gd, e be a f e

ec, b e a decg. Fge 16 e a f e f gd eae

afacg f e ee age ae ece:24e US, e EU ad Jaa. T

a, c a g ceaed e e a decade ad ce 80%, c

ge a e a f gd e GDP. T ea a e ace f ade e

afacg ec a ceaed, e e ea ace f e afacg ec

e ec a deceaed, g e ceae e ae f ade ea GDP.

F 16. C

GD, J, E27 (19982011)

() E %

() E % GD

:F EU27: a ad eaEU e. Sce: OECD ad Wd Ba daabae.

B ca, a ca f e a a eceage f GDP f e age ece ad f e

d a a e a ade c e a e fe (ad 10% f GDP

caed e 20% f e d), cfg a egaa ad e ad g

f ae, e e ece a bee ebe f a cdeabe a f a

efeed a gbaa.

! .17 cae a ac f Ca e aeage f

e ee bg ae ee (e EU, e US ad Jaa). Te ca gge a Ca

ad e f e ae f e f gd afacg (ae b), b c

23 We dce be a e ega e EU a bee ceea, eadg eeegece f a a bee eed Fac Ee.

24O eaEU ade cdeed cae.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

A E27

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

A E


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ce e ae ece e eae afacg (ae a). T

becae e Cee ec deed afacg e a e ce:

afacg ec eee e ed f a ec, caed e a

e e US ad e a eff Ee.

F 17. C GD

() E %

() E % GD

: OECD ad Wd Ba daabae.

S fa ee e edece f gbaa e ece ec. Te a f ece e

e ae f ece e US, EU ad Jaa 5%, caed a 80% f

afacg. T gge a e f d e d fa, cea e e

cae f ece.

Oea, ee e db a e a f a ade (gd ad ece) GDP a

ceaed e a. Wa ca be ad ab e fe? I eg ae a e ed

beed beee 1990 ad 200708 ce, b ee e a e ea f

gd ade a bee a ea aa eaed.

We ce ece, daa gge e dec ade eae a: ece ade

ab 30% f gd ade f ce, cdg e EU. I

d be ecged, ee, a ade gd cae a age ee e ae

added ceaed b ece ec c a be ece ad a. I eefe e

a ade ece ce ceae fae a ade gd, a a e

beaa f e ec ad e fac a ece ae a eeceag a f GDP.Mee, ge ICT a ade eae ecage cea ece ac bde,

ab e aea f be. B g be f a eae a bae.

We ed e MIRAGE de ae e e ad dec f fe ade f baed e

e f GDP ad a ce, c a d, afacg ad ece. Te

a cc f e a a e ade ce a a e a

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

C A , E &

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

C A , E &


38/166


e e gba ec, ace e ceae a e ae ace a a

, ag ece ffe e ea f a deee.

Te adaage f g a f ecfed de a ecdae a geea ee a

a cbed e eea f e ee f gbaa. I fe aeed,

cec, a e e a 3040 ea e g f e e f eaa ade a

aa aced e g f ea GDP. T cec, b bea e eeaa aea a f g becae e eae ce f e ( a) gd c ae

aded a fae c, ffeg e ecc ac f e ceae e

ae ecaged. Te Mde ecae eca ega ad edc a, g f

ade ea ge a GDP g, b e dffeece eeced ee e e

ad 2030 (Fge 18). Mee, ge a e eae ce f adabe gd

ce fa, e a f ade GDP ceae c, cea c e a e

a. Te de gge a e gbaa ce, ded a a c e

d f, e ce a e ace.

F 18.

: E aded f aade.: Mage e.

Te e ec a d be degbag be Ca, e e g e

deceeae a, f 10.5% e ea ae e befe e c e a af f

ae (4.1%) aeage f e ed 2030. Mee, e dffeece beee e g

ae f Cee e ad a f e d f 6.6 eceage 1.2

eceage , eag a e ae f Cee e gba ade ceae

c e e ed 2030.25Te d 2030 g be e dffee f da

e f GDP ae, b ade d be e dac a GDP ad e da

adg bc d be e ae a da: e EU, e US ad Ca.

F a EU eece, e d eefe a c e a, e ceagae f Ca ad e EME gba GDP, e fac a e ade f ee e e

25B e ea 2030, e g ae f Cee e ad d e ae eced be eac ea ( aee). Te dffeece beee Ca ad e e f e d e f g ae ea cge (dbe a 2.6%) a e dffeece e g ae. T e a ee be a a dffeece e e f e ae f Cee GDP d GDP (c eced ceae cdeab) ad e aef Ca e d ade (c eced ceae aga). A ee, Ca ae gbae ad a ad 910%, ce ae gba GDP. B 2030, e ae d ae aaedbed ( ae e, .e. cdg eeced ea aeca), e Ca ae f gba e d aeceaed b ab eff, g 12%.

3.70%

2.80% 2.80%

5.10%

3.80% 3.80%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

200507 201330 2030

GDP g

E g


39/166


eadg c e a befe? Ge a f e eea ee

fece e EU ce a ade f, e cd age a e caege e gba

ec e f e EU g be e dffee f e f da.

I g a e de edc a e ae f dffee adg ae

cage deae beee ad 2013. A Fge 19, de e cea

cea, eaEU ade eced ceae ace eae aEU ade, f ee ea a e e f e d gg e ad a e EU. O aeage, a

EU ade da eee ab 60% f a ade (ad eaEU ade, ab 40%). Tee

ae eced eac a aae a f 5050 b 2030.

Te eae eg f e EU ae f e eeced dec, b b e

age a, a e ca be . Hee, e ea a f cce e

US ad Ca. Te US ce (2012 daa), e EU a ge adg

ae (b deca aead f Ca). T cage b 2030 e Ca be cea

e age adg ae ge a ae EU eea ade ce ceae,

abe a a e ace a e e a decade. Le cage eeced f e adg

ae, ece e Re f Ee, c dece ace ge a a

eeced g e a e e f e d.

F 19. E27

: RW: Re f Wd, CHN: Ca, JPN: Jaa, KOR+TAI: Kea & Taa, IND: Ida, LA: LaAeca, RE: Re f Ee, RUS: Ra, TR: Te.:Mage e ad EU TRADE ac (Ea).

3.2 G : A ?Te dc e e ec cceaed e ada dca f ade,

ae a f ade gd ad ece eaed b e a a c e b

f abad. Hee, ade eaed a eee a g, ae, cce ad

dec caabe GDP, c afe e aeadded ceaed b a ec.

Te eca edece f e ca ee a ece ae ac.

Rece b e WTO/OECD26 a, f e f e, ded eabe edece a e

acecc ad d ee f a be f ce. Tee daa cf a e gba

26See OECDWTO Tade ae added (TVA) dca.

25%

C

14%

4% + A

3%

AEA

5%

D

2%

CA

2%

A

14%

A

6%

E

11%

10%

4%

2012

27%

C16%

3% + A

4%

AEA

5%

D

3%

CA

1%

A

12%

A

5%

E

10%

10%

4%

200


40/166


ca ee ee be aca g e de (e.g. eecc).

Te be eae Ae dc,c aea ca e e ca Cee

aeadded.27T eae g be caacec f Cee e geea, ee.

Ideed, be a e ace f e gba ae ca cd be eaed ad a

e e f Ca e ca ed e aeb f eedae dc. Accdg

WTO/OECD eeac, e ca aeadded f Cee e aca ad 70%,

c eaab g f a c a g de a aeb ece (ad

a de f agde ge a e ggeed b e Ae eae).

Accdg ee ece ac, e e e ad a, f eac dda EU

ebe ae, a g f feg ae ed e. O e e ad,

f ade eedae dc ae ace e EU, c ee a a ca

e ade eedae.28If e cde e EU a a e, e f feg (

EU) caed EU e ( e e f e d) ad 12%, c a

eae a a. I eec, EU d da f a f e US

Jaa g a e GVC ee ce affec a eae ed a f

e.29Te e e ee e ce f cg e ae added ce

e e e fe decade. T b a dffc e ae, becae fdaa a ad ceae, b a becae f e ce f e ee. Ye,

ge gg , eg ee ecfc aec: e gegaca

de (gba e ega), e e de (ca be eeced ce?) ad a

caea (e ae ca e a aea ).

()

Te aaabe daa a f aEU ade, e ce f dec aeadded

caed e c e a f e gg e e f e d, eag

a e aeadded ege f dc eaed Ee. Te ea f

dffeece ea dead: aac ad a c ae c e f ade

e EU a f ade e e f e d. I e d, c eae

a a efed dc f Gea eee age cea eae

Ee ad ae e abee a efed ee; gd ca be aed bac

ad f Ee a ae f da g eee a ad a. T

be Ca f Ee. Ieeg, a a ega b ee e Ea

Aa, fed b ea a ed e eedae gd beee Ca, Jaa, Kea,

Taa ad e. A a dac a e beee e US ad Mec. T ega

ccea f e ae ca a a bee beed b Bad ad LeGae (2013)

27See ://cc.eage.c.ed/ae/2011/Vae_Pad_Pe.df.

28A eed a WTO/JETRO 2010 e, 41% f 2009 d e eedae, fed b Aa 35%.

29I d be ed a a e daa e aeadded ce f ade ae be cdeed a a aabecae e ae baed abe, c ae baed aa aggegae. T ae dffc eae e ed aeadded cg f abad ac dc, eeca f e cde a f d ce g ca aa aeadded, c ca be eaed ece ee. Teedffce ae cded e e e eae e Eea aeadded caed e eaEU ef ebe ae.


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ae defed ee eg: fac Aa, fac N Aeca ad fac

Ee.30

Te e , eefe: Wa ae e f Eea ce aEU eaEU

ade? If e a e e e f g e, e ae aEU ade, ce

aeage acc f e 60% f a e f ebe ce. Daa ae

added, ee, cea e b g a e ae f e decaeadded caed aEU e ( 2009) a abe 50% f Face, be 50%

f b Gea ad Ia, ad 40% f e UK ( 1). Ge a e geea f

aeadded a ceae dec ee ad ce, a bee a

aEU ade a aead bece e a egad a eaEU ade f

Ee age ebe ae.

1.

E27, 2009 (ECD)

E E27, 2009 (E)

( )*

F 50.5 62.5

G 49.1 62.4

I 48.4 57.6

K 41.2 55.0

* Accdg e OECD TIVA daabae, e ae f aEU e (g cce) cdeab e a

a e Ea be, b abe e aeadded ae.

: caca baed e TIVA daabae f e OECDad Ea.

If f aa cae cca dead e ce

eee fac Ee, f Eea cae e a

dead a ee fac Ee egaed e gba ca. A ee,

aaabe ac a e ae ee e ed.

Te a e ee e fe ega f e ae ca ceed aa e ega ee, e ad e ade e ee bg fac eg (Aa,

N Aeca ad Ee) b e ade beee e face, ee e ee face

eea ege a ge gba e. F ace, cd e Taaac Tade ad

Iee Pae (TTIP) ead a ege f e Aac face ad e fa

f a Ne Aac Fac (NAF).

B 2.

I cace ae a a c ae ad ce fa ad. T cea

e f e a aca de f a, e cae, a feg, ad, ee e ,

eecca c. Hee, e edece a a cg ed c e g

f e a a ea dca f a c, ae e a f e ae f

cdg a c (CIF C, Iace, Feg) eae e ae f

a c (FB, Fee Bad). Te a f ee ae ge a dca f e

30Bad ad Tag (2007; 2012) eae a ae ca ae afg d ade ae. T aca f e a ec edc e gegaca db f ade. Te a age a eadad ga fa (de c baea ade e ae edced e ba f eae GDP ee)ca be aed ade f ee a ad ce ae a. T becae GDP g addea ce a f ad dead f a ad ce. Te a e adadde ef c f ad gge a aeae ecfca a g be e ef.


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ace f ea c (dec g c, ace ad e ece) f bgg gd

f abad. Te ca be e c ea a c e e a 60 ea ad

dcae a ce e 1950 a c eded fa a f ad 10% e a

3% ad e d1990. Sce e a c ae aca g ceaed, aeage,

bab becae f ge fe ce. W fe ce eeced ceae fe, a bad

eae f a c e fa c, ee f ecgca ge ce.

: D I (CIF) E (FB) E

(FB)

: IFS Daabae f IMF.

()

I a bee aged e e ec a e d e fa a e dce

gbaa ggeed e ea. Dace ae; dc f e

dec ae ad feg aeadded acc f a a fac f e cae.

Te ea e ee a ce a ece aed a cd ae e ea

fae e feeeabe fe. I e d, e gba ca ee be f ed ace cg ea ea e fe?

Ufae, e dffc dce e ed f ee, aca de

a f e daa, c ce f ea ag e ad a af decade: 1995,

2000, 2005 ad 2009.

M f e eae a fced e dffeece beee e f ad e a daa

(1995 ad 2009), c a ceae e feg aeadded caed e f

a a e ce f c daa ae aaabe (Fge 21). O aeage, e gba

dec aeadded f e ded f 75.9% 1995 72.5% 2009. A bac

eaa f e ed beee 1995 ad 2009 d ead a a ceae e

ee b 2030.

Hee, f e a e eedae daa (2000 ad 2005), a c e aced

ce eege: ee a bee cea ed e e a fe ea. Te dec ae

added e aca ceaed beee 2005 ad 2009 f e cde e (eged)

aeage f a e 41 ce f c daa ae aaabe.31

31T aeage g be d feced, ee, b e a a Eea ce f c e

ea 2009 bg ab a ab eaaa f dc.

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%


43/166

Te

F 20. D

(a) Wd aeage

:O caca baed e O

A a, ea gge a

fe ee cdeed ee (

70%. Tee aea ae bee

cac fac ece f Ge

dec aeadded ce f

caged e e (a a a f

e gba ca ce.

F e EU, e ae f feg

ceaed f ab 8% 1995

2030, c d a

ab 20%. Ude

ce ceae f e EU aea beee a f Ca

Te be a ae e f

cde e dffeece beee

d ae ca e e

ee ce d dffe gea

ee be eed a

age a f e ade e

c f e f ade.

Ae aec f e gba

afe f abee aT a caed ffg a

ee cea ae

e a dbed e ea

W ee be e ce

eg a , e

bece a a ee

ce age ad a

75.9

71.870.6

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

1995 2000 2005

Gba Ec 2030: Ted ad Saege f

(b) Te bg 5 ee

CD TIVA daabae.

e f dec aeadded e

ea, Jaa, e US, Ca ad Ida)

a ca f beee 1995 ad 2005, e

a ad Ca, b e ee ce 2005

Cee e a ceaed aga e a

e US). B ca, Ida ee ceag

aeadded caed e EU

12% 2009. I eg ec e

feg aeadded caed EU e

e, e ega f gba aeadded

d ea f e adaced ece. He ed e e be eeed.

ce a affec e f Ca

e ad ad ed ae c

eedae ae ced f dffee

caa/ab a ab c. I

ad ade eedae (E

edae dc ag e d EU15 c

eca ee a aaced e a

, a, f e dc ce a f ed ade. B 2030,

bece e a f Ca, e age

e.

e age ae d ae ffg fabe

e f ee ege f dc ge

? T ge ee ee

age ab fce ecda edca

72.5

2009

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

DE JP US CHN I

Ee |25

f e bg

ea abe

eca f e

ee. Te

Gea a

acae

ce a

d fad

d ceae

ca d

e, ee ae

e GVC

a. A a

ce, b

cae, e GVC

e, 1982). A

e ee

e e

age ce. f e GVC

ae ae

ee 2030,

b

be eg

cdeed a

D

1995

2000

2005

2009


44/166


f e caac f e ec e e accaed eeee

ae f e edc ffg Ca. Pec a caa dcae a b

2030, a f SEa Aa ae a eabe g a a age f

ecda edca. Hee, ee be eg f e be f e

ded f f Cee e e ceag age ae Ca a c e

aace ffg dea. Se degee f eg eefe ee e

cea. T cc d cage (ad ffg ce g b 2030) f Ida

ee e ffce bece a ffg cee b ef, a cea a

cda e beaa f aff ad aff bae ade.

Ecc g Ca e e g ed ade, b a

edce e ce f ad e f ade. Hee, a e Cee ec ae

ad, e ad e f e ce a ae ce ed f e ce

ad aebed ca32ca be ced f Cee e. Te e f e Cee ec

g caabe a f e ebe f fac Aa (a Kea, Jaa ad

Taa). Hee, b 2030 Ca e e e e, accg f e a

d f a f fac Aa ae. T e a e fe a , e f a be

Ca ef. A age a f da ade beee fac Aa ce g fe aeace beee Cee ce ad ce.

Fac Ee, b ca, c f f a c e caabe e. Gea

aea dae e e, b e Gea ec acc f ab eae

f e ee EU ec ad, ee e f afacg , eg be e

d ad e cage c b 2030. Fe cg f e ae ca d

ead e aEU ade, b ecea e ade ac e eea bde

fac Aa.

()

Te eae gba ca a fa egeced e a aec, ae ae e f a ece daed ce ca a gfca f

feg e f f ed eeg ad a aea, c acc f a

gfca f e feg aeadded caed gd e becae gd ae

eae ee eeg ad a aea. I f eeg ad a aea acc

f ab ed f a eaEU (ce 5% f GDP). Ge a afacg

e be c e eceee a ece, e ae f ed a aea

caed eaEU e e be cdeab ge a e ae f ea

f a aea ad eeg EU GDP. A age a f e beed ae f ed

aeadded caed eaEU e g be de e a aea

ce f e (ca ee ad eeg). A e ed f a aea ce a bee

g , g a e feg aeadded e a ceaed f e aee f afacg gd.

Te ed ad cg e ae ca aa ced f afacg

dc. B ade dc caeg a aca eaded c e a ade a

32 T a becae ab a af f a Cee e ae dced b fegdaed

bee.


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aea, agca cde ad a gd, c ae ade a ce ca

f a dc e.

Fge 22 be a gba ade afacg dc acc f e a

eaf f gba ade ad a a ceaed ea e e a 20 ea. Mafacg

ade aed a e e a 10% f GDP e 1990, ad e 10% f GDP da.

F 21. % GD

: UNCTAD Mecade ade a, IMF WEO daabae ad Wd Ba daabae.

A a, e ccde a e GVC ee cea e eea a e ega cae,

ad aca Ee, b c e f e cde ade ag e a

ecc eg. Mee, ee e edece a ea fac a ae de

ce fa g ge be a g e fe.

3.3 I Te ceag ace f eaa caa ae, ad aca feg dec

ee (FDI), a e a f gbaa. Oe e a decade, faca aac

ae ceaed ee e c a ade. Te age cbde f f e caa

ad e ceag f f FDI ad e ge c a ae bee accaed e

eae g ceae e e a eaa ecage ae daed b caa

ae.

Hee, f e a e eae ace f dffee e f eaa ae

f, a dffee ce eege. A Fge 23, ada ecage e f f

ade gd ad ece ce dae. Gd ade acc f ab d f

a ce aac (f e ea 2011) ad ece ade f ae , addg

e 80% f a ce acc ae f. FDI ce acc f 6%, g

e a f ce ad e afe.

Mee, e ace f e e eaa ee eae ade f a

ceaed e e a decade. Sce e 1980, e ace f FDI ce eae

ada ade a ceaed f ad 3% 6% f e, b a bee eae

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

Ta ade gd a % f GDP

Mafacg ade gd a %

f GDP


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ca ce 20045.33 Tee daa gge a e FDI g ce a eee

a ece afe ad ecg, e e f ea e FDI

ea a eae e eee geeaed b e f gd ad ece (ad ee

ae eae GDP).

F 22. G , B D % ,

2011

: O caca baed IMF daa.

Feg dec ee a ee a e deabe ad a f f

eaa caa f.34 Te eaed35 c (c ae e ee e ae f

faca ae a f) f ad FDI e G7 ae ceaed f ab 5% f GDP

e 1980 e 25% 2011, Fge 24, ae a, a ce 2000, e ee ad e ae

f ceae a bee a f b e ce g f eegg ce (BRIC) ad e G7.

Ge a f adaced ece e c f caa a ab e (aa)

GDP, a FDI f ab 25% f GDP e a ab 12.5% f e aa caa c

de feg c.

Fge 24 ae b ae e age dffeece beee e G7 ad e BRIC ad FDI

deae b dec f. Fge 25 a fdaea dffeece e ae

33Te ea f e dceac beee e eae cac f e eae ade f ad e aceae e c f FDI (eae b GDP ad ade) de e fac a (eaed) e FDI aefae cdeab e e a decade.

34Feg dec ee (FDI) a caeg f eaa ee a dcae a e ace aag ee a eee eag ae ec. I ce a faca aac beee eeg eee ad bdae abad. I dffe f f ee, becae e dec eace a ea 10% f g e.

35Tee ae a dffee ce f daa FDI c fe ee e dffee ce becae f agdef (a ca c f a ae ce), a cded ( e f eeed eag cded) dffee eg ae (e.g. e FDI f e EU eed b Ea ea e US daa f US adFDI f e EU).

1402,

6%

1023, 5%

1121, 5%

795, 3%

14182, 64%

3732, 17%

FDI ce

Pf ce

Oe ce

SecdaIce

Gd

Sece


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f e g f ce: G7 ce d FDI ae abad aeage ab

35% f GDP, caed e a 10% f e BRIC.

F 23. FDI I .. FDI ( ) ..

FDI ( ).

: IMF ad UNCTAD.

: Cee daa aaabe ce 2004

Te e f ee dffeece beee e ae ad e ab de a e e f

e BRIC (e dffeece beee ad ad ad FDI) a bee egae ad gg. B

ee aga, e a ee d a a egae FDI f 10% f GDP aae

ab 5% f e a aa caa c (ee Fge 25).

F 24. FDI % GD

: caca baed OECD daa.

Hee, e e egae f e BRIC acc f a fac f e ae f e

ce ce. I cea a a age a e d f gba FDI c f

a ecage beee deeed ce. T ae e EU, ge a f e

dec ee f f dda ebe ce ae ace e U.

If e a e EU a a ge e, e fd a eaEU FDI a a c ae e

a e daa abe gge. Te c f a FDI e EU ce eaed b Ea a

ab 3.000b e, ab 25% f EU GDP, ad e eaEU ad f EU

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

7 BC

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

7 BC

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

7 BC


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ebe ae eaed a ab 5.500b, ce 35% f EU GDP. T e a

e EU a ae ced e ee a f ae eed aeage ab 10% f

GDP e abad e e e a d.

Wa e ecc ace f FDI? Te eae a bee abe fd g edece

a FDI f ae a a e ac e ec36 T a

aca FDI f ag deeed ce, c acc f e age ae fgba FDI. I ea, FDI ca ae f: a) Geefed, .e. eg a e fac, b) a

cbde ege ac, c eg cae ad e face de

dffee c b de ecea e ee.

A e age ae f e FDI ag deeed ce e cbde ege ad

ac, b a geea e f e face eae a a a f ee d

ceae ae ad fa afe e e. B ca, a Geefed ee ceae eg

e.

Ufae, f e aaabe daa b f f FDI gee, ag dffc

dge e ecc ace f e age f ad e accaed c dceed

abe.Te aaabe daa dcae, ee, a Geefed ee acc f a a ae

f a FDI. Te UNCTAD daabae FDI a ag da ce, Geefed

ee a ca ab 0.20.3% f GDP, ab 12% f a ee

ee ece. I e cae f e US, f eae, Geefed ad FDI 2012 aed

ab $50 b, ab 0.3% f GDP. Te fge f e EU ee ea e f

e cde FDI f d ce.

B ca, Geefed ee c e a f deeg ce, ce

accg f ab 2% f GDP, beee 5% ad 10% f ee. I e f ea

caa fa, FDI a a aga e deeed ce, b

ea a a ece f afeg ecg ad f adaced

ce eegg ece.

I abe be, Geefed ee gae a (ab 70%) deeed

ce ad age f (70%) deeg ce (Tabe 2).

2. G G FDI ( D, 201012)

T F ee

Deeed 273.3 562.7

Deeg 535.3 246.0

: Ucad.

3.4 L Te aa f ade f a a e ae f afacg a e

aabe eag e e f ade, g a e ace f ade g cage

e e a a c dee. F a ge eece, e ae f afacg

36See f ace Ma, e a. (2005).


49/166

Te

a d f a

ce, agce dae

ad a f afacg cea

f afacg beg fa a

edc fe deee f

1. Ca a ae eaced

(aca, f Ca

afacg ad ade

Mage de cf

c ad de

a a afac

2. Ida, e ce e

2030, e d b

(ab ee

adg a a Ca

3. SbSaaa Afca (SSA)

espas report economy

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