생활공감 환경보건기술 r&d 전략 마련 연구 -...
TRANSCRIPT
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생활공감 환경보건기술
R&D 전략 마련 연구
2010. 12.
KECO2011-RE06-7
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제 출 문
한국환경공단 이사장 귀하
이 보고서를 “생활공감 환경보건기술 R&D 전략마련 연구”과제의 최종보고서로
제출합니다.
2010. 12. 24
주관연구기관명 : 과학기술정책연구원주관연구책임자 : 이 정 원
연 구 원 : 장 진 규안 두 현유 의 선홍 윤 서
공동연구기관명 : 한국환경산업기술원공동연구책임자 : 김 만 영
연 구 원 : 이 종 현김 정 태호 문 기정 준 식김 민 주
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차 례
제1장 사업 추진 배경 및 필요성 ·································································································· 1
1.1 사업 추진 배경 ······················································································································· 1
1.1.1 환경보건을 위협하는 요인의 증가 ··············································································· 1
1.1.2 국제 화학규제 대응 및 화학산업 경쟁력 강화 필요 ············································· 1
1.1.3 환경보건 니즈에 대처할 기술개발 시급 ····································································· 2
1.2 환경보건기술의 정의 ············································································································· 3
1.3 사업의 목적 및 범위 정의 ··································································································· 7
1.3.1 생활공감 환경보건기술개발사업의 목적 정의 ··························································· 7
1.3.2 생활공감 환경보건기술개발사업의 범위 정의 ··························································· 7
1.4 사업추진의 필요성 ··············································································································· 10
1.4.1 환경보건정책 수요를 뒷받침할 기술개발 필요 ······················································ 10
1.4.2 정부지원 필요성 ············································································································ 11
1.4.3 환경보건 R&D사업의 환경부 추진 당위성 ······························································ 13
제2장 세계 환경보건 정책의 동향 ······························································································ 15
2.1 세계 환경보건 관련 주요 현황 및 전망 ········································································· 15
2.1.1 개요 ································································································································ 15
2.1.2 세계 환경 현황 및 전망 ······························································································ 16
2.1.3 국제 환경보건 관련 협약 쟁점 ·················································································· 23
2.1.4 국제 환경보건 관련 규제 및 국내 대응 현황 ························································ 27
2.1.5 국제 환경보건 관련 협약 및 규제 시사점 ······························································ 38
2.2 국외 환경보건정책 동향 ····································································································· 39
2.2.1 개요 ·································································································································· 39
2.2.2 세계보건기구(WHO) ······································································································ 41
2.2.3 유럽연합의 환경보건 정책 ·························································································· 42
2.2.4 미국의 환경보건 정책 ·································································································· 45
2.2.5 일본의 환경보건 정책 ·································································································· 52
2.2.6 경제협력개발기구(OECD)의 환경보건 정책 ····························································· 62
2.2.7 국외 환경보건정책 현황에 따른 시사점 ·································································· 63
제3장 국내 환경보건 정책의 현황과 당면과제 ········································································ 65
3.1 국내 환경 현황 및 전망 ····································································································· 65
3.1.1 국내 환경 현황 및 전망 ······························································································ 65
3.1.2 국내외 주요 환경 이슈에 따른 환경보건 분야 전망과 시사점 ·························· 69
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3.2 국내 환경보건정책 현황 및 전망 ····················································································· 70
3.2.1 국내 환경보건 정책 ······································································································ 70
3.2.2 국내 환경보건 관련법 ·································································································· 72
3.2.3 국내 관련법에서의 환경보건기술 개발 관련 내용 ················································ 72
3.2.4 국내 환경보건정책 현황 및 전망에 따른 시사점 분석 ········································ 73
3.3 환경보건 메가트렌드 및 R&D 중점영역 ········································································· 74
3.3.1 환경보건 관련 메가트렌드 ·························································································· 74
3.3.2 메가트렌드에 대응하기 위한 환경보건 정책 및 R&D 방향 ································ 77
3.3.3 중점 영역 및 이슈의 도출 프로세스 ········································································ 77
3.3.4 주요 이슈별 정책수단 ·································································································· 81
3.3.5 환경 및 건강 문제에 대한 국민 인식 조사 ···························································· 98
3.4 환경보건 R&D 동향 및 역량 분석 ················································································ 100
3.4.1 주요 이슈별 국내 R&D 연구 동향 ·········································································· 100
3.4.2 차세대 핵심환경기술개발사업 성과분석 ································································ 108
3.4.3 국내외 환경보건기술 역량분석 ················································································ 113
3.4.4 주요이슈별 논문 분석 ································································································ 118
3.4.5 주요 이슈별 특허분석 ································································································ 130
3.4.6 SWOT분석 및 시사점 ································································································· 137
제4장 사업기획 기본방향 ············································································································ 141
4.1 사업기획 추진체계 및 과정 ····························································································· 141
4.1.1 사업기획 추진체계 ······································································································ 141
4.1.2 사업기획 추진과정 ······································································································ 142
4.2 사업기획 시 핵심 고려사항 및 대응방안 설계 ··························································· 143
4.2.1 정책적 측면 ·················································································································· 143
4.2.2 기술적 측면 ·················································································································· 145
4.3 전략적 사업구조 설계 ····································································································· 146
4.3.1 중점이슈 도출 프로세스 ···························································································· 146
4.3.2 중점이슈 도출 ·············································································································· 147
4.3.3 전략적 사업 구조 설계 ······························································································ 148
4.4 세부사업별 핵심기술 도출 ······························································································· 149
제5장 사업비전, 목표, 추진전략 및 추진체계 ········································································ 151
5.1 사업 비전 ····························································································································· 151
5.1.1 비전 ································································································································ 151
5.2 사업 목표 ····························································································································· 152
5.2.1 총괄 목표 ······················································································································ 152
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5.2.2 단계별 목표 ·················································································································· 153
5.2.3 세부사업별 목표 ·········································································································· 154
5.2.4 핵심 프로그램별 목표 ································································································ 155
5.3 사업추진 전략 ····················································································································· 161
5.3.1 사업추진 전략 ·············································································································· 161
5.3.2 기존 사업과의 차별화 및 연계 전략 ······································································ 162
5.4 사업추진체계 및 방식 ······································································································· 170
5.4.1 프로그램 디렉터(PD : Program Director) 중심의 사업추진 체계 ···················· 170
5.4.2 한국환경공단의 역할 ·································································································· 172
5.4.3 생활공감 환경보건기술 개발사업 추진절차(안) ···················································· 173
5.4.4 세부사업별 과제추진 방식 ························································································ 173
제6장 세부사업별 추진내용 ·········································································································· 177
6.1 개요 ······································································································································· 177
6.2 생활환경 유해인자 위해관리 기술개발사업 ································································· 178
6.2.1 물리적 유해인자 대응 프로그램 ·············································································· 178
6.2.2 대기환경 유해인자 대응 프로그램 ·········································································· 193
6.2.3 환경미생물 대응 프로그램 (수환경 유해인자 중심) ············································ 209
6.3 환경성질환 대응 기술개발사업 ······················································································· 219
6.3.1 환경성질환 대응 프로그램 (아토피･천식･새집증후군 등) ·································· 2196.4 유해화학물질 위해관리 기술개발사업 ··········································································· 236
6.4.1 유해화학물질 대응 프로그램 (화학물질 직접노출 중심) ···································· 236
6.4.2 유해금속 대응 프로그램 ···························································································· 244
6.4.3 신종 유해인자 대응 프로그램 (POPs, 환경호르몬 중심) ···································· 255
제7장 소요예산 및 사업관리 방안 ···························································································· 267
7.1 소요예산 산정 및 확보 방안 ··························································································· 267
7.1.1 소요예산 도출 과정 ···································································································· 267
7.1.2 세부사업별 예산안 ······································································································ 268
7.2 연구인력 및 이의 수급 방안 ··························································································· 269
7.2.1 예상 소요 연구인력 ···································································································· 269
7.3 위험요인 대응방안 ············································································································· 271
7.3.1 위험요인 ························································································································ 271
7.3.2 대응방안 ························································································································ 271
7.4 사업관리 방안 ····················································································································· 272
7.4.1 사업추진 일정 ·············································································································· 272
7.4.2 사업모니터링 및 관리방안 ························································································ 274
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7.4.3 성과평가 및 성과방안 확산 방안 ············································································ 276
7.4.4 성과활용 계획 ·············································································································· 278
제8장 기대 성과 및 파급 효과 ································································································ 283
8.1 과학기술적 기대 성과 ······································································································· 283
8.2 정책적 기대 성과 ··············································································································· 284
8.3 경제적 기대 성과 ··············································································································· 285
8.3.1 분석항목 및 프로세스 ································································································ 285
8.3.2 사회적 편익 ·················································································································· 286
8.3.3 산업연관분석을 통한 경제적 가치 추정 ································································ 299
부록 1 프로그램별 기획보고서 ·································································································· 311
부록 2 프로그램별 핵심기술개요서 ·························································································· 677
부록 3 프로그램별/핵심기술별 소요예산 ················································································ 851
부록 4 기획위원회 명단 ·············································································································· 863
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표 차 례
타부처 R&D사업과의 차별성 및 연계방안 ······························································ 13
IPCC의 지구온난화의 영향 전망 ················································································ 15
OECD의 향후 환경 문제에 대한 신호등 체계적 분석 ········································ 22
ISO 14000 시리즈 ······································································································· 26
우리나라가 가입한 국제 환경 협약 현황(2009. 9월) ·········································· 27
각국의 기존화학물질 목록 ·························································································· 29
물질 사용 금지·제한 물질 목록 ················································································ 30
강제 표시제 관리 대상 물질 목록 ············································································ 32
자율적 표시제, 유인제도 등 관리 대상 물질 목록 ················································ 33
조사연구 및 평가 대상 물질 목록 ············································································ 33
HPV 관리 대상 물질 목록 ························································································· 34
기타 국제적 관심물질 목록 ······················································································ 35
소비자 노출에 대한 관심물질 목록 ······································································ 36
우리나라의 해외 규제 및 국제 환경 협약에 대한 대응 방안 ························ 38
선진국 및 국제기구에서의 환경보건정책 추진 동향 ········································ 40
미국 환경보호청 환경기술개발 관련 주요 전략 및 계획 ······························ 47
일본에서의 화학물질 종합평가 관리의 기술로드맵 목표 ·································· 57
일본 기술맵에서 과거/현재 및 미래의 기술개발 방향 ······································· 58
기후변화로 인한 국내 영향 사례 ············································································ 65
연도별 대기환경기준 측정항목별 대기오염도 ······················································ 67
수질환경기준 달성률 추이 ························································································ 68
먹는물 수질 추이 ········································································································ 69
환경보건 관련법 및 관련 내용 ·················································································· 72
환경보건 R&D 중점영역 도출 매트릭스 ·································································· 80
현재 및 미래사회 대비를 고려한 중점 이슈 ·························································· 81
서울시 아토피 등 환경성질환 유병률(2008년도) ··················································· 88
독성 유전체학 연구개발 현황 ·················································································· 90
우리나라 유해물질관리 기본계획(제2차) ······························································ 93
국내 시민단체 내분비계장애물질 관련활동 현황(1998~2006년 10월) ········· 98
각 부처별 환경보건 기술분류에 따른 R&D 추진현황 비교(2005~2009) ····· 101
환경부사업의 주요 이슈별 기술범위에 따른 추진현황(2005~2009) ············· 103
타부처 사업의 주요 이슈별 기술범위에 따른 추진현황(2005~2009) ··········· 105
이슈별/기술범위별 기존사업 현황 ········································································ 107
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이슈별/기술범위별 생활공감 환경보건기술 개발사업 현황 ···························· 108
차세대 핵심환경기술개발사업 중 환경보건분야 투입 현황 ···························· 109
차세대사업 중 위해성평가분야 핵심기술의 논문 경쟁력 ································ 111
차세대사업 중 위해성평가분야 핵심기술의 특허 경쟁력 ································ 111
차세대사업에서의 과학기술적 성과 이외의 성과 ·············································· 112
위해성평가․관리 요소기술 선진국 대비 기술수준 및 기술격차 ····················· 113 환경관리기술의 평가기술 선진국 대비 기술수준 및 기술격차 ···················· 113
30대 기술 분야별 경쟁력 순위 변화(1991~2005년) ······································· 114
환경성과 지수 중 환경보건 관련지수 ································································ 115
주요국가의 2010년도 EPI 순위 ············································································ 116
우리나라의 환경성질환 부하를 평가하기 위한 내용(WHO, 2009) ················ 117
본 사업 추진 분야에 따른 SCI 논문에 발표된 논문 분석 (2001~2010) ·· · · · 123
유해인자 모니터링 기술분야의 국가별 논문발표 순위(2001~2010) ············· 125
노출평가 기술분야의 국가별 논문발표 순위(2001~2010) ······························· 125
위해성평가 기술분야의 국가별 논문발표 순위(2001~2010) ··························· 126
위해도관리 기술분야의 국가별 논문발표 순위(2001~2010) ··························· 126
위해도저감 기술분야의 국가별 논문발표 순위(2001~2010) ··························· 127
본 사업 추진 중점이슈에 따른 우리나라 환경보건 관련 논문 발표 통계 ·· 128
핵심프로그램에 따른 핵심검색어 및 검색식 ···················································· 131
본 사업 추진분야 중 프로그램별 해당이슈 관련 특허 출원/등록
현황 분석 (2000~2008) ··························································································· 134
핵심과제 도출을 위한 SWOT 분석 결과 ····························································· 140
단계별 목표 ·················································································································· 153
세부사업별 목표 ········································································································ 154
핵심프로그램별 단계별 추진 목표 ·········································································· 155
프로그램별 공통 성과지표 ······················································································ 159
프로그램별 개별 성과지표 ······················································································ 160
타부처 사업과의 차별화 및 연계방안 ···································································· 165
보건복지부 맞춤예방연구사업과의 차별화 및 연계방안 ···································· 166
환경부 타 사업과의 차별화 및 연계방안 ···························································· 167
과제 형태별 지원 조건 ······························································································ 175
세부사업별 과제추진 방식 ······················································································ 175
세부사업별 핵심 프로그램, 중점기술, 핵심기술 수 ············································ 177
생활공감 환경보건기술 개발사업의 세부사업별 예산 배분 ······························ 268
생활공감 환경보건기술 개발사업의 연도별 소요 예산 ······································ 269
중점프로그램별 추진일정과 소요 예산 ·································································· 273
환경보건 R&D 사업 모니터링 항목(예시) ····························································· 274
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주요 환경성질환 진료환자의 연도별․성별 현황 ···················································· 288 298 질병분류별 환경성질환 총 진료비용 현황(2008년 기준) ·························· 288
2008년도 환경성질환 진료환자 수 및 환자 일인당 진료비 ··························· 289
환경성질환 진료비용 및 조기사망비용 절감 효과 ·············································· 290
생활보건분야 R&D 투자금액(2012~2021) ····························································· 291
황사 발생 1일당 개인 피해 비용 ············································································ 292
황사 발생 비용 절감 효과 ························································································ 293
미세먼지, 황사 등 관련 연구개발투자 규모 ························································· 293
휴대폰 전자파로 인한 연간 피해 절감 효과 ························································ 294
생활환경 유해인자 관련 연구개발투자 규모 ······················································ 295
환경미생물로 인한 연간 피해 절감 효과 ···························································· 296
환경미생물 관련 연구개발투자 규모 ···································································· 296
화학물질 직접노출로 인한 연간 피해 절감 효과 ·············································· 297
화학제품사용 관련 연구개발투자 규모 ································································ 298
주요 이슈별 피해 절감 효과 ·················································································· 298
환경관련 산업 분류1 - 생활환경 ·········································································· 300
환경관련 산업 분류2 - 교통환경 ·········································································· 300
환경관련 산업 분류3 - 인체건강 ·········································································· 301
환경관련 산업 분류4 - 자연생태 ········································································ 301
환경관련 산업 분류5 - 지하수환경 ······································································ 302
생활환경 관련 산업연관분석 결과 ········································································ 303
교통환경 관련 산업연관분석 결과 ········································································ 304
인체건강 관련 산업연관분석 결과 ········································································ 305
자연생태 관련 산업연관분석 결과 ········································································ 306
지하수환경 관련 산업연관분석 결과 ···································································· 307
전체 환경산업의 산업연관분석 결과 평균 ·························································· 308
환경 관련 각 범주의 산업연관분석 종합 ···························································· 309
생활보건분야 R&D 투자에 따른 연도별 취업유발인원 ··································· 310
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그림차례
[그림 1-1] 환경성질환 발생 현황 ···································································································· 2
[그림 1-2] 기술적 관점에서의 환경보건기술 정의 ······································································ 4
[그림 1-3] ｢환경보건법｣의 범주 및 고려 필요 이슈 ·································································· 5[그림 1-4] 환경보건 이슈 해결의 정책적 지원을 위한 법적 근거의 활용 ···························· 5
[그림 1-5] 환경보건기술 개발이 요구되는 관련 법률 및 계획 ················································ 6
[그림 1-6] 환경유해인자와 인체/생태계 영향의 연관관계 - ‘원인-경로-영향’ 연계도 ······· 8
[그림 1-7] 환경보건기술의 기술적 범위 ························································································ 9
[그림 1-8] 생활공감 환경보건 R&D 사업의 정부지원 필요성 ··············································· 12
[그림 2-1] OECD 회원국 오염원 배출 강도 현황 비교 ························································· 17
[그림 2-2] 현재 위협받고 있는 생물종의 비율 ········································································ 20
[그림 2-3] 환경정책 패러다임의 변화 ·························································································· 39
[그림 2-4] 미국의 환경추진 조직 체계 ······················································································ 51
[그림 2-5] 일본의 환경기술정책 추진 조직 ·············································································· 53
[그림 2-6] 화학물질을 관리하기 위한 위해성평가 및 위해도관리의 흐름 ·························· 58
[그림 2-7] 일본 기술전략맵에서의 GSC의 개념 ········································································ 61
[그림 3-1] 본 연구에서 제시된 중점 이슈에 대한 정책 수단 활용성 ·································· 72
[그림 3-2] 환경보건 이슈와 연계된 매체 vs. 수용체의 매트릭스 ········································· 76
[그림 3-3] 15년간 주요도시의 연도별 대기오염물질 연평균 농도 ····································· 84
[그림 3-4] 원인별 사망 수 (1997년) ·························································································· 86
[그림 3-5] 천식의 유병률과 10만 명당 사망률 ········································································· 87
[그림 3-6] 차세대사업 분야별 지식재산권 출원/등록 성과 ·················································· 110
[그림 3-7] 차세대사업 분야별 전문학술지 게재 성과 ··························································· 110
[그림 3-8] 본 사업 추진 분야별/환경보건기술 분야별 논문 발표 분석 결과
(2001~2010) ················································································································· 124
[그림 3-9] 환경보건기술 범위에 따른 논문 발표 분석 결과(2001~2010) ······················· 124
[그림 3-10] 본 사업 추진분야별 우리나라의 논문 발표 순위 ············································· 128
[그림 3-11] 중점 이슈별 우리나라 논문 발표 비율(2001~2010) ········································ 129
[그림 3-12] 본 사업 추진 분야의 연도별 특허 출원/등록 추세 ········································ 135
[그림 3-13] 기술분야별 본 사업 전체 관련 특허 출원/등록 현황 ······································ 136
[그림 3-14] 전체 출원/등록 특허와 한국 출원/등록 특허의 기술분야별 현황 비교 ······ 136
[그림 4-1] 사업기획 추진체계 ····································································································· 141
[그림 4-2] 사업기획 추진절차 ····································································································· 142
[그림 4-3] 녹색성장을 위한 환경분야 4대 추진전략과 실천과제 ······································· 143
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[그림 4-4] 기술개발을 위한 중점 이슈 도출 프로세스 ························································· 146
[그림 4-5] 중점영역 도출을 위한 매트릭스(matrix) 구성 ······················································ 147
[그림 4-6] 선택기준을 활용한 최종 중점 이슈 도출 ··························································· 148
[그림 4-7] 생활공감 환경보건기술 개발사업의 설계배경 및 사업구조 ····························· 149
[그림 4-8] 프로그램별 핵심기술 도출 절차 ··········································································· 150
[그림 5-1] 사업추진체계 ············································································································· 171
[그림 5-2] 사업 추진주체별 역할 ······························································································· 171
[그림 5-3] 환경보건정책 및 본 사업에서의 한국환경공단의 역할 ····································· 172
[그림 5-4] 환경보건기술 개발사업의 사업추진 절차 ····························································· 173
[그림 5-5] R&D 단계별, R&D 목적별 R&D 사업의 성격 분류와 본 사업의 성격 ········· 174
[그림 7-1] 환경보건 기술개발사업의 성과중심 사업추진 방안 ··········································· 276
[그림 7-2] 생활공감 환경보건기술 개발사업의 전과정 사업평가체계 ····························· 278
[그림 8-1] 생활공감 환경보건기술개발 사업 경제성 분석 프로세스 ································· 285
[그림 8-2] 연도별 인구 1만명 당 주요 환경성질환자 추이(단위: 명/1만명) ···················· 287
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제1장 사업 추진 배경 및 필요성
1.1 사업 추진 배경
1.1.1 환경보건을 위협하는 요인의 증가
□ 기후변화 가속화, 인구 고령화, 세계 부의 이동, 신기술 발전 가속화 등에 따라 국민의 건강과 생태계를 위협하는 요인과 니즈가 증가
○ 기후변화 가속화에 따른 오존농도의 증가, 휘발성 유기오염물질(VOCs) 및 잔류성 유기오염물질(POPs; 환경호르몬 등) 전파속도 증가 등으로 국민건강, 특히 건강취약계층에 대한 리스크가 증가
○ 물 부족의 심화와 생태계 훼손에 따른 수질악화와 생태계 자정능력 감소 등으로 인체 및 생태계 위해도 증가
○ 인구 고령화와 독거인구 증가에 따른 건강취약계층에 대한 환경보건 니즈 증가
○ NT, BT, 신소재기술의 발달은 새로운 오염원 생성 등 위해성이 존재하며 이러한 신기술의 환경보건위해성의 과학적 평가요구 증대
○ 중국을 비롯한 신흥공업국의 급속한 산업화는 환경오염물질 배출 증가 및 생태계 위협으로 이어질 가능성이 높아 환경보건 위해성을 관리하기 위하여 국가단위뿐만 아니라 광역 및 국제단위 접근이 필요
1.1.2 국제 화학규제 대응 및 화학산업 경쟁력 강화 필요
□ 화학물질은 제조·생산 단계는 물론 화학제품의 사용 및 폐기 과정을 통해 일상생활에 노출되어 국민건강 및 환경에 영향을 미치고 있으나, 현대 사회에서는 없어서는 안 되는 양면성이 존재
□ 화학물질의 사용이 증가하게 되고, 이에 따라 유통 및 교역이 증가함에 따라 국제적으로 화학물질의 규제가 강화되고 있는 추세
○ EU에서 신화학물질관리제도(REACH)를 도입하고, UN에서는 지속가능한 화학물질 관리를 위한 국제적 전략(SAICM)을 채택하고 있음
※ REACH(Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and Restriction of Chemicals) : EU에서 인간건강․환경 보호 및 역내 화학 산업계의 경쟁력 강화를 위하여 역내 제조․수입되는 화학물질에 대해 산업계의 위해성 입증 책임을 의무화하는 제도
※ SAICM(Strategic Approach to International Chemicals Management) : 화학물질의 위해성 최소화를 위한 원칙과 국가적․지역적․국제적 차원에서 2020년까지 달성해야 할 실행계획을 규정한 국제 선언
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1.1.3 환경보건 니즈에 대처할 기술개발 시급
□ 환경성질환 급증에 따른 예방·관리 수요 급증으로 환경보건정책은 마련되고 있으나 이를 뒷받침할 기술 수준은 미흡, 적기에 대처하지 못할 경우 건강피해 등 사회․경제적 손실이 막대
○ 대기오염 심화, 폐기물 발생 증가, 화학물질 사용 증가 등 생활환경 변화로 인해 아토피·천식 등 환경성질환 급증
[그림 1-1] 환경성질환 발생 현황
○ 대한 소아알레르기 및 호흡기학회에 따르면, 서울지역 초중고생의 아토피성 피부염 유병률은 1995년 19.7%→2005년 29.2%로 증가
- 서울지역 초중고생 5만여명 대상 설문조사를 통해 아토피성 피부염 유병률 분석
□ 환경성질환을 촉발하는 유해화학물질에 대해 REACH 등 강력한 국제적 규제가 여러 나라에서 이슈로 대두
○ 환경부에서는 「제2차 유해화학물질관리 기본계획(2006~2010) (2005)」, 「화학물질관리 선진화 계획(2009. 1)」을 수립하여 추진하고 있으나 이를 뒷받침할 수 있는 기반기술이 부족
□ 「환경보건법」이 본격 제정․시행(2009년 3월)되어 10년마다 「환경보건종합계획」을 수립․시행토록 명시(제6조)됨에 따라 이의 이행을 뒷받침할 기술개발 투자확대가 시급
※ 「녹색기술 연구개발 종합대책(안)(2009. 1)」의 75개 후보기술에 포함
□ 미국과 일본 등 선진국의 경우, 삶의 질 증진을 위한 환경보건 정책과 제도를 환경정책의 최우선과제로 추진
○ 우리나라도 국민이 생활에서 공감하는 환경유해요인 및 환경성질환에 대한 우려를 해소하기 위한 환경보건정책 실행계획이 시급
□ 「환경보건법」에서는 민감계층인 어린이 건강보호와 관련하여 어린이 활동공간과 어린이용품에 대한 위해성을 평가하고 정보를 구축해야 하는 것으로 명시(제23조)
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○ 유해화학물질사용의 증가로 인해 어린이 건강보호를 위한 법적인 장치는 마련되었으나 이를 뒷받침할 수 있는 기술개발은 미흡
○ 어린 시기의 건강수준은 성인 시기의 건강수준을 좌우할 수 있으며, 작용 받는 영향 정도 또한 성인보다 민감하게 작용 받는 바, 이를 관리하기 위한 기술개발이 시급
□ 수질/대기/폐기물 등 매체중심의 환경정책에 환경보건개념의 접목이 미흡한 상황으로 환경부 내에서 주요 테마로의 환경보건정책 개념의 확대가 시급
1.2 환경보건기술의 정의
□ 법률적 관점에서의 환경보건기술 정의
○ ｢환경보건법｣ 제2조에 따른 ‘환경보건’에 대한 정의를 고려하면, 환경보건기술은 환경유해인자가 사람의 건강과 생태계에 미치는 영향을 조사·평가하고 이를 예방·관리하는 데 필요한 제반 기술로 정의할 수 있음
- 여기서 ‘환경유해인자’란 “｢환경정책기본법」 제3조 제4호에 따른 환경오염[1]과 「유해화학물질 관리법」 제2조 제8호에 따른 유해화학물질[2] 등”으로 정의하고 있어, 실질적으로는 인체나 생태계에 유해영향을 미치는 환경부하(환경오염과 유해화학물질 등을 포함) 가운데 환경부 소관 법률에 따라 환경부가 인체 건강 및 생태계에 미치는 유해영향을 예방·관리하여야 하는 대상이 되는 환경부하로 정의할 수 있음
□ 기술적 관점에서의 환경보건기술 정의
○ 환경부하[3]는 환경 질(환경영향 범주)에 부정적인 영향을 미치며, 악화된 환경 질은 다시 보호대상(safe guard subject)에 부정적 영향을 미치게 됨[4]
- 환경 질(environmental quality)에 미치는 부정적인 영향은 ‘중간점 레벨(midpoint level)의 환경영향'으로[5], 환경부하가 보호대상에 미치는 부정적 영향은 ’종말점 레벨(endpoint level)의 환경영향‘으로 볼 수 있음
[1] 사업활동 기타 사람의 활동에 따라 발생되는 대기오염, 수질오염, 토양오염, 해양오염, 방사능오염, 소음·진동, 악취, 일조방해 등으로서 사람의 건강이나 환경에 피해를 주는 상태.
[2] 유독물, 관찰물질, 취급제한물질 또는 취급금지물질, 사고대비물질, 그 밖에 유해성 또는 위해성이 있거나 그러할 우려가 있는 화학물질.
[3] 주요 환경부하로는 지구온난화 영향물질 배출, 오존층 영향물질 배출, 산성화 영향물질 배출, 부영영화 영향물질 배출, 광화학산화물 생성 영향물질 배출, 인체독성 영향물질 사용·배출, 생태계 독성 영향물질 사용·배출, 자원 소비 등을 들 수 있음.
[4] 박필주, 김만영: 대한환경공학회지, 32(5), 499, 2010.[5] 중간점 레벨(midpoint level)의 주요 환경영향으로는 지구온난화, 오존층 영향, 산성화, 부영양화, 광
화학산화물 생성, 인체 독성, 생태계 독성, 자원 소모 등을 들 수 있음.
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[그림 1-2] 기술적 관점에서의 환경보건기술 정의
○ 환경부하에 의한 부정적 영향으로부터 보호하여야 할 ‘보호대상’으로는 ‘인체 건강(human health)’이나 생물다양성 등 ‘생태계 건전성(ecosystem healthiness)’ 외에도 ‘사회자산(social assets)’, 농·림·어업 등 ‘일차생산력(primary production)’을 들 수 있음[6]
- 또한 이들 보호대상 중 환경보건 측면에서 고려할 보호대상은 ‘인체 건강’과 ‘생태계 건전성’으로 압축됨
○ 이러한 맥락에서 기술적 관점에서의 환경보건기술은 보호대상으로서 ‘인체 건강’이나 ‘생태계 건전성’을 확보할 수 있도록 하기 위하여 ▲환경부하(환경유해인자의 노출) 및 이로 인한 환경영향을 측정·모니터링하고 ▲환경유해인자 노출에 따른 인체·생태계 유해영향을 평가·관리하며 ▲사전적 또는 사후적으로 환경유해인자 노출에 따른 인체·생태계 위해도를 줄이는 데 필요한 기술을 포괄하는 것으로 정의할 수 있음
- 즉, 기술적 관점에서의 환경보건기술은 수용체로서 ‘인체’ 건강과 ‘생태계’ 건전성을 보호·유지하기 위하여 필요한 제반 기술로서, ①환경유해인자의 배출 및 수용체로의 노출에 따라 발생하는 위해(risk)를 모니터링(monitoring)하고, ②환경유해인자 노출 및 이에 따른 위해성을 평가하며(exposure assessment, risk assessment), ③발생할 위해를 감소시키거나 예방하기 위하여 위해도를 관리하고(risk management) ④위해도를 줄이기 위한 조치(risk reduction)를 취하는 데 필요한 제반 기술로 정의할 수 있음
□ 정책적 관점에서의 환경보건기술 정의
○ 현행 ｢환경보건법｣에 따른 환경보건 정책은 환경유해인자의 위해성평가, 환경성질환에 따른 건강피해 관리, 어린이 건강보호에 초점이 맞추어져 있음
○ 그러나 전 세계적으로 이슈화되고 있는 기후변화, 나노물질, 제품함유 유해물질 등 새로운 환경유해인자에 대한 고려 및 조치가 필요하나 이를 다룰 수 있는 정책적 근거는 미비함
[6] 伊坪徳宏, 稲葉敦: ライフサイクル環境影響評価手法 - LIME-LCA, 環境会計, 環境効率のための評価手法․データベース, 産業環境管理協会, 2005.
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[그림 1-3] ｢환경보건법｣의 범주 및 고려 필요 이슈
- 환경보건기술이 정책적으로 지원 가능하며 새로운 이슈의 고려 하에서 ‘인체’ 건강과 ‘생태계’ 건전성을 보호·유지하는데 필요한 명실상부한 제반 기술이 되기 위해서는 환경보건기술의 개발 근거를 ｢환경보건법｣·｢환경보건정책 10개년 종합계획｣뿐만 아니라 환경부 소관 환경보건 관련법률 및 환경보건기술개발과 관련된 국가 상위계획에서 법적 근거를 확보할 필요
[그림 1-4] 환경보건 이슈 해결의 정책적 지원을 위한 법적 근거의 활용
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○ 따라서 정책적 관점에서의 환경보건기술은 ｢환경보건법｣·｢환경보건정책 10개년 종합계획｣뿐만 아니라 환경부 소관 환경보건 관련법률 및 환경보건기술개발과 관련된 국가 상위계획에서 필요로 하는 인체 건강 및 생태계 건전성을 확보하는데 필요한 기술로 정의할 수 있음
- 환경보건과 직·간접적으로 관련이 있는 환경부 소관 법률 및 환경보건기술개발과 관련된 국가 상위계획을 정리하면 다음과 같음([그림 1-5] 참조)
▪ 환경보건과 직접 관련된 환경부 소관 법률 : ｢환경보건법｣, ｢유해화학물질 관리법｣, ｢소음·진동관리법｣, ｢잔류성 유기오염물질 관리법｣, ｢다중이용시설 등의 실내공기질 관리법｣
▪ 환경보건과 간접적으로 관련된 환경부 소관 법률 : ｢대기환경보전법｣, ｢토양환경보전법｣, ｢수질 및 수생태계보전에 관한 법률｣, ｢폐기물관리법｣, ｢전기전자제품 및 자동차의 자원순환에 관한 법률｣ 등
▪ 환경보건기술개발과 관련된 국가 상위계획 : 과학기술 기본계획(577 Initiative), 국가 기후변화 대응 종합계획, 환경분야 녹색성장 실천계획, 녹색기술 연구개발 종합대책, 기후변화 대응 국가 R&D 중장기 마스터플랜 등
[그림 1-5] 환경보건기술 개발이 요구되는 관련 법률 및 계획
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1.3 사업의 목적 및 범위 정의
1.3.1 생활공감 환경보건기술개발사업의 목적 정의
□ 환경보건기술개발사업 목적 정의에는 다음 지향점의 고려가 필요
○ 생활공감형 환경보건(삶의 질 확보 및 건강위험 인구 최소화) : 현재 사회적 이슈로 등장하고 있는 다양한 환경보건 문제와 미래사회 환경변화에 따라 발생할 수 있는 환경보건 문제를 해결하거나 사전 예방하여 현세대는 물론 미래세대의 인체 건강 및 생태계 건전성을 확보함으로써 국민의 삶의 질을 확보할 수 있어야 함
○ 환경보건정책 선진화 : 환경보건기술의 법률적 정의 및 환경보건기술의 기술적·정책적 관점에서의 정의가 고려되어 환경보건정책의 현안문제를 효과적으로 해결하는 데 기여하여야 함
□ 이러한 고려 하에 환경보건 기술개발사업의 목적을 다음과 같이 정의
○ 현재 사회적 이슈가 되고 있는 다양한 환경보건 문제 및 미래사회 환경변화에 따라 발생할 수 있는 환경보건 문제 해결 및 사전 예방 대응을 위한 기술개발 ⇒ 생활공감형 환경보건(삶의 질 확보 및 건강위험 인구 최소화)
○ ｢환경보건정책 10개년 종합계획｣의 원활한 추진과 ｢환경보건법｣ 시행(2009년 3월)에 따른 정책 지원을 위하여 필요한 기반기술을 개발 ⇒ 환경보건정책 선진화
1.3.2 생활공감 환경보건기술개발사업의 범위 정의
□ 환경부 소관법률 및 국가상위계획 중 환경부 담당분야에 근거하여 ‘생활공감형 환경보건’ 및 ‘환경보건정책 선진화’를 달성하는 데 필요한 기술을 개발
○ 사회문제화 되고 있거나 사회문제 우려가 있는 환경보건 이슈를 해결하기 위한 환경보건기술
○ 미래사회 환경변화에 따라 발생이 예상되는 주요 환경보건 이슈로부터 인체 및 생태계 위해를 줄일 수 있는 환경보건기술
○ ｢환경보건법｣ 시행, ｢환경보건 10개년 종합계획｣ 추진에 필요한 중점 환경보건기술 ※ 동 기술개발의 법적 근거는 ｢환경보건법｣ 및 환경부 소관 환경보건 관련 법률을 활용
□ 환경성질환이나 삶의 질 악화와 관련된 환경보건 이슈를 해결하기 위하여 필요한 일련의 환경보건기술을 개발
○ 각 환경이슈별 환경부하·환경영향 모니터링 → 위해성평가(risk assessment) → 위해도관리(risk management) 및 위해도저감(risk reduction)에 이르는 일련의 환경보건 이슈 해결 과정에 필요한 제반 기술
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○ 또한 환경성질환 등 인체·생태계 영향이 발생하기 위하여서는 “환경유해인자[7] 사용·배출 → 노출 → 인체/생태계 유해영향 발생”, 즉 ‘원인-경로-영향’의 연계성이 있는 바, 인체건강 및 생태계 건전성 확보를 위하여서는 ‘원인-경로-영향’에 이르는 제반 기술을 개발해야 함([그림 1-6] 참조)
[그림 1-6] 환경유해인자와 인체/생태계 영향의 연관관계 - ‘원인-경로-영향’ 연계도
□ 이상의 내용을 반영하여 환경보건기술개발사업의 범위를 다음과 같이 요약할 수 있음
○ 환경보건기술은 인체 및 생태계에 미치는 영향을 모니터링하고 이에 대한 평가․예측 그리고, 이를 적정하게 관리하거나 위해(risk) 자체를 원천적으로 감축․회피할 수 있는 기술로 포괄
○ 즉, ‘모니터링’ → ‘평가’ → ‘관리’ → ‘감축/회피‘ 과정에 필요한 관련 기술을 환경보건기술의 기술적 범위로 설정
○ 환경보건기술의 기술적 범위의 각 단계별 정의는 다음과 같음
- 모니터링 기술 : 인체·생태계에 유해영향을 미칠 가능성이 있는 환경유해인자를 모니터링하거나 환경유해인자 노출에 따라 인체·생태계에 미치는 유해영향을 모니터링하는 기술
[7] 여기서 환경유해인자는 ｢환경보건법｣에서 정하고 있는 직접 환경유해인자 외에도 대기오염, 수질오염, 화학제품 사용, 기후변화 등 환경유해인자의 사용·배출을 유발하는 원인인 간접 환경유해인자를 포함함.
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- 노출평가/위해성평가 기술 : 환경유해인자가 인체·생태계에 미칠 가능성이 있는 유해영향(negative impact; risk)을 평가(assessment)하는데 필요한 기술
- 위해도관리 기술 : 발생할 위해를 감소시키거나 예방하기 위하여 위해도를 관리(management)하는데 필요한 기술
- 위해도저감/회피 기술 : 위해도를 줄이기 위한 조치(risk reduction/avoidance)를 취하는 데 필요한 기술
[그림 1-7] 환경보건기술의 기술적 범위
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1.4 사업추진의 필요성
1.4.1 환경보건정책 수요를 뒷받침할 기술개발 필요
□ 환경보건기술의 부족으로 정책 추진의 어려움 발생
○ 국내 환경보건정책 10개년 종합계획수립(2006. 2월)과 함께 2006년 환경보건 원년 선언을 기점으로 의욕적인 환경보건 정책 출범
○ 환경 유해요인으로 인한 건강피해 가능성을 과학적으로 평가하고, 국민들에게 효과적으로 전달하는 정책 실행을 위하여 필요한 각종 환경보건 기반기술이 필요한 상황
○ 역학조사, 건강영향평가, 위해성평가 등 과학적 기반에 중심을 둔 수용체 중심의 환경보건정책 수립을 위한 공공기반 기술개발 필요성이 대두
○ 환경성질환(알레르기 비염, 천식, 아토피 피부염 등) 급증에 따른 대책 요구
○ 폐기물 재활용․처리에 따른 중금속 노출 등에 대한 대책 요구 급증 - 폐광지역의 중금속 유출, 건축물 해체, 폐건축자재 재활용, 노후건축물에서의 석면 노
출, 폐기물 혼합 소각 시멘트 공장 지역의 중금속 노출 등이 부각
○ 환경 호르몬 등 미래 환경성질환 대책 요구
- 환경호르몬범람으로 인한 환경성질환 대책, 다이옥신 등 기존 POPs(잔류성유기오염물질) 및 신규 POPs 대책 절실
○ 특히 환경보건법 목적 달성을 위한 실행 계획 수립과 정책 효과 평가를 위해서는 환경보건 기반기술에 의한 객관적인 자료 생산이 필수적
□ 인체건강 및 생태계 보호를 위한 화학물질 관리와 국내 관련 산업의 경쟁력 강화 필요
○ 국내 화학물질 관리는 시험항목, 산업계 참여, 위해성평가 수준 등에 있어 선진국과 큰 격차
- 그간 화학규제가 산업의 성장을 지연하거나 왜곡한다는 사회적 인식이 팽배하였던 것이 큰 원인으로 작용
- 신규화학물질의 경우 유해성 심사항목은 1991년 3개에서 2007년에 6개로 확대되었으나 OECD(13개) 절반 수준
※ 국내에서 처음으로 제조되거나 수입된 화학물질로 신규물질 제조․수입자는 해당 물질에 대한 유해성 시험자료를 생산하여 유해성심사를 받아야 함
○ 기존 화학물질의 90% 이상이 기초 독성자료도 없이 유통
- 미국, 유럽 등은 산업계에서 정보를 생산하나, 우리나라의 경우 정부에서 시행하여 자료 생산에 한계
※ 「유해화학물질관리법」 제정(1991.1) 이전에 국내에서 유통된 화학물질은 약 3만 7천여 종에 달함
○ REACH 등 강력한 국제적 화학물질 규제에 신속한 대응 곤란
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- 최근 REACH 발효(2007. 6월)에 의해 대 EU 화학물질(제품 포함) 수출기업은 위해성 정보 제출 의무가 부과되어 기업부담이 과중
- 국내에서 위해성 정보 생산능력을 갖춘 시험기관(GLP) 부족
※ OECD가 정한 “우수실험실 기준”을 준수하는, 화학물질․농약․의약품 등의 유해․위해성 시험기관으로 현재 18개 기관에서 최대 19개 시험항목 시험 가능
○ 화학규제의 기술선도적 기능 상실로 산업경쟁력 확보 문제
- 사회이슈화 된 이후 물질을 규제하여 대체물질 개발에 필요한 시간 확보가 곤란하고 핵심 신소재의 수입 의존도 심화
- EU REACH 등과 현격한 규제 격차로 우리 화학산업 정보는 유출되나, 수입물질에 대한 정보 확보 미흡
□ 국민 건강 및 생태계 보호를 위한 사전예방·감시 체계 기술개발을 위한 집중 투자 필요
○ 환경보건 정책이 일관성 있는 방향을 유지하기 위하여 환경보건 분야 연구들의 효율성을 높일 수 있는 기술개발의 전략이 필요하며, 이를 활용한 연구의 선택과 집중을 통해 효율성을 극대화할 필요
□ 위험인구 저감을 위한 평가 및 감시 기술은 미흡
○ 환경오염 및 유해요인으로 인한 위험인구를 실질적으로 저감할 수 있는 환경규제 정책과 그 정책을 뒷받침하기 위한 필수 기술이 요청
○ 2009년 3월부터 환경보건 중심으로의 법적·행정적 전환을 위하여 ｢환경보건법｣을 제정하여 시행하고 있음
○ 하지만 현행법에 따른 정책 추진을 위한 기초자료 생산과 위해성평가 및 저감기술이 부족한 실정
○ 매체별 환경오염 평가 및 관리 기술은 우수한 편이나, 다매체간의 종합평가 기술, 환경오염과 수용체의 유해 영향간의 관련성, 환경오염으로 인한 건강영향 가능성 평가 등의 부분은 미흡
1.4.2 정부지원 필요성
□ 환경보건기술개발의 수혜 대상은 전국민
○ 개발된 기술을 적용하여 선진화된 환경보건정책이 시행되는 경우 수혜대상은 광범위
□ 환경보건 영향에 대한 피해보상의 주체는 정부
○ 인체건강과 생태계 건전성을 해치는 피해가 발생하더라도 대부분은 원인제공자를 단정하기가 곤란하여 결국 정부․지자체가 피해보상의 주체가 됨
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□ 환경보건 분야는 민간투자의 기대가 어려운 분야
○ 국민 건강 및 생태계 보호를 위한 환경보건기술은 환경보건정책을 우선적으로 지원하기 위한 공공기술로 민간의 자발적 투자가 어려운 기술 분야
○ 특히 민간투자의 경우 실용화 가능성이 큰 분야에 치중될 수 있으므로, 국민건강 보호 등을 위한 공공기술개발 투자에는 정부의 주도적인 역할 및 참여가 필요
○ 사업 성과 및 최종 결과물은 대부분 정부에서 활용되며, 활용에 따른 편익은 내부적 사적편익보다는 외부편익 형태로 발생하므로, 시장 전망에 의해 좌우되는 민간섹터의 연구개발 투자는 기대하기 어려움
□ 국가고유 기능으로서 환경보건 R&D 투자 확대 필요
○ 국가과학기술위원회에서는 환경분야 R&D중 ‘환경보건․예측․감시’ 분야의 투자 저조를 지적하여 독립된 ‘환경보건 R&D사업’ 추진 필요성 인정
※ 국가과학기술위원회 제46회 제3호 심의안건, 2011년도 정부연구개발투자 방향(안), 2010. 4. 1.
□ 장기적이고 안정적인 정부연구 프로그램 필요
○ 환경보건 분야는 기술개발뿐만 아니라 기술검증을 위한 장기적인 현장적용 평가가 필수적
○ 공공성과 장기성으로 인해, 시장전망에 따른 단기투자를 위주로 하는 기업체의 연구개발 투자를 기대하기는 어려움
□ 환경보건 R&D 사업은 불확실성이 높으나 파급효과가 큰 사업
○ 환경보건 분야는 과학기술 파급효과뿐만 아니라 국민 건강수준의 향상 효과가 커서 막대한 의료비 절감 효과를 가져올 수 있는 분야
○ 기반연구가 부족하고 첨단기술 적용을 필요로 하는 등 위험요소와 불확실성이 높아 정부투자가 필요한 분야
[그림 1-8] 생활공감 환경보건 R&D 사업의 정부지원 필요성
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1.4.3 환경보건 R&D사업의 환경부 추진 당위성
□ 환경부가 시행하는 환경보건정책의 효과적 추진을 위하여 환경보건기술 개발이 필요
※ 환경보건기술 : 환경유해인자(환경오염, 유해화학물질 등) 노출에 따라 발생하는 질환을 조사․평가, 예방․관리하는 데 필요한 제반기술(｢환경보건법｣ 제2조제1호)
○ 타부처의 경우 환경성질환에 대한 진단 및 치료기술 개발(보건복지부), 질환중심의 신약 후보물질의 발굴(교육과학기술부) 등에 기술개발을 지원
○ 환경오염 속에서 국민건강을 지키기 위한 수용체 중심 사전예방차원의 통합적 평가/관리 기술개발의 지원은 환경보건정책과 함께 환경부에서 효과적으로 추진할 수 있는 특화된 영역임
구분
환경부 보건복지부 교육과학기술부
동사업보건의료기술 연구개발사업
나노물질 독성 기반연구사업
바이오기술 개발사업
특정기초연구 지원사업
사업
목적
환경보건법 및 유관법률에 따른
환경보건정책 시행 지원을 위한 기반기술개발
보건의료기술 경쟁력 확보
원천기술기반으로 첨단나노
소재의 독성/위해성 및 안정성 확보
핵심원천기술 개발 및 질환별 신약후보 물질
발굴
새로운 지식창출과
원천기술확보로 국가 경쟁력
강화
지원
분야
환경오염으로 인한 국민건강 영향 및
생태계 안전성 평가
희귀질환, 혁신 신약, 기능성
식품, 화장품 등
의약품, 화장품, 식품
신약, 바이오소재
개발, 생명공학과학기술 전분야
차별성수용체 중심 사전 예방차원의 통합적 평가/관리 기술개발
희귀질환, 혁신 신약, 기능성 식품, 화장품
등을 대상으로 연구지원
식품, 의약품, 화장품 등 나노소재
제품으로 대상 차별화
질환중심으로 후보물질의 발굴
전 과학기술분야에
따른 기초 연구지원
연계
추진
방안
-
환경성질환에 대한 진단 및 치료기술 등
연구결과 공유
나노물질에 대한 원천기술
연구결과 공유- -
타부처 R&D사업과의 차별성 및 연계방안
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제2장 세계 환경보건 정책의 동향
2.1 세계 환경보건 관련 주요 현황 및 전망
2.1.1 개요
□ 지구온난화, 물 부족, 생태계 변화, 식량 부족, 유해 화학물질 증가 등 지구 환경과 인간 생활을 위협하고 있는 환경오염 문제에 대해 세계인의 관심과 우려가 고조되고 있음[8]
부문 주요영향
건강
▪ 지구온난화, 오존 증가로 인한 전염병, 질환 증가
2020년 (1℃ 상승) 2050년 (2~3℃ 상승) 2080년 (3℃ 이상)
- 알레르기, 전염성 질병 - 영양 부족, 과다 출혈, 심현관계 질병 증가 - 열파, 홍수, 가뭄으로 인한 사망 증가
생태계
▪ 대기 중 이산화탄소 증가로 생태계 구조, 역할, 종의 상호연계와 관련해 부정적인 결과를 초래
2020년 (1℃ 상승) 2050년 (2~3℃ 상승) 2080년 (3℃ 이상)
- 양서류 멸종 - 산호의 백화 현상 - 종 다양성 변화
- 20~30% 멸종 위기 - 전 지구 생물 대부분 멸종 - 지리적 생물권 분포 변화
1차 생산
▪ 고위도 지역은 식량 수확량 증가하나 저위도 지역은 수확량 감소로 기근 증가 위험
2020년 (1℃ 상승) 2050년 (2~3℃ 상승) 2080년 (3℃ 이상)
- 전 지구적 농작물 수확 잠재력 증가 - 1,000만~4,000만명의 기근 위협
- 저위도 지역 적응잠재력 증가 - 중위도 지역 수확량 감소 - 3,000만~1억 2,000만명 기근
위협
해안
▪ 다수 지역이 해수면 상승으로 홍수 위험에 노출되어 해안 침식과 주변 생태계에 부정적 결과를 초래
2020년 (1℃ 상승) 2050년 (2~3℃ 상승) 2080년 (3℃ 이상)
- 홍수, 폭우 위험 증가 - 300만명 홍수 위험 - 해안가 30% 이상 유실 - 1,500만명 이상 홍수 위험
수자원
▪ 지구 평균 기온 상승은 지역에 따라 홍수, 물 부족 등 수자원에 대해 부정적인 결과를 초래
2020년 (1℃ 상승) 2050년 (2~3℃ 상승) 2080년 (3℃ 이상)
- 4~17억명 물 부족 - 10~20억명 물 부족 - 11~32억명 물 부족 - 전세계 인구 1/5 이상 홍수 영향
IPCC의 지구온난화의 영향 전망
[8] 녹색성장위원회, 2009.
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□ 기후변화에 따른 알레르기, 전염병 질병의 증가와 영양부족, 과다출혈, 심혈관계 질병이 증가 될 것으로 보임
□ 아울런 기후변화는 양서류의 멸종, 산호의 백화 현상, 종 다양성 변화 등 생태계에 직간접적으로 영향을 미칠 것으로 보임
□ 환경오염 문제가 지속적으로 심화될 경우 관리 및 적응 역량이 미흡한 개발도상국이 가장 많은 환경 피해를 입을 것으로 예상됨
2.1.2 세계 환경 현황 및 전망
2.1.2.1 지구온난화
□ 전 세계적으로 지구온난화에 따른 기후변화 현상이 심화되고 있으며 이에 가장 민감한 사안은 이산화탄소와 온실가스 배출임
○ 더욱 문제가 되고 있는 것은 경제가 성장할수록 이산화탄소와 온실가스의 배출이 증가하고 있다는 것임
□ 전반적으로 1980년 이후 에너지 사용으로 인한 이산화탄소 배출량은 OECD 국가들 전체로는 세계적인 수준보다 완만하게 증가했으며 이러한 추세는 최근 수년간 아시아 국가들의 빠른 경제성장으로 상쇄되어왔음
○ 우리나라의 경우 1인당 배출량 기준으로는 OECD 평균을 밑돌고 있지만 1990년 이후 배출 증가율은 50%를 넘어 OECD 국가 중 최고치를 나타냄
□ 유럽을 중심으로 선진국들은 이산화탄소 및 온실가스 발생량을 탈연동(decoupling)시키기 위하여 이산화탄소와 온실가스의 감축 및 온실가스의 농도를 안정화시킬 수 있는 방안을 모색하고 있음
○ OECD 회원국 중 많은 수가 이산화탄소와 기타 온실가스 배출을 경제 성장과 탈연동하려고 시도했지만 대부분의 경우 자체의 국가 공약을 달성하는 데 성공하지 못했음
□ 지구온난화로 인한 급속한 피해가 예상되는 만큼 온난화의 주된 요인인 이산화탄소 및 온실가스 배출에 대한 국제적 규제가 강화될 것으로 예상됨([그림 2-1] 참조)[9]
○ 특히 발리로드맵에 따라 2012년 이후 포스트 교토 체제의 온실가스 감축 목표가 설정될 예정으로 우리나라도 이에 대해 정책적으로나 기술적으로 대비해야할 필요가 있음
[9] OECD(2008), OECD Environmental Outlook to 2030
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[그림 2-1] OECD 회원국 오염원 배출 강도 현황 비교
□ 지구온난화에 의한 대기환경의 악화
○ 향후 100년간 지구 기온은 최대 6.4℃까지 상승할 것으로 예측됨
○ 지구온난화는 공업의 발달에 따라 배출의 양이 기하급수적으로 증가한 이산화탄소(CO2), 메탄(CH4), 오존(O3), 프레온가스(CFCs), 아산화질소(nitrous oxide) 등의 온실가스에 의한 것으로 파악되고 있음[10][11][12]
○ 화석연료의 사용량과 대기온도의 변화 간의 관련성이 많은 보고를 통해 이어지고 있으며[13] 화석연료의 사용은 비단 CO2의 양뿐만 아니라 일산화탄소(CO), 오존(O3), 납(Pb), 이산화질소(NO2), 이산화황(SO2) 그리고 미세먼지(PM) 등의 증가에도 직·간접적인 영향을 주는 것으로 알려져 있음
[10] Weart, Spencer (2008). "The Carbon Dioxide Greenhouse Effect". The Discovery of Global Warming. American Institute of Physics. http://www.aip.org/history/climate/co2.htm. Retrieved 21 April 2009.
[11] Kiehl, J.T.; Trenberth, K.E. (1997). "Earth's Annual Global Mean Energy Budget" (PDF). Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 78(2) : 197~208.
[12] Schmidt, Gavin (6 Apr 2005). "Water vapour : feedback or forcing?". RealClimate. http://www.realclimate.org/index.php?p=142. Retrieved 21 April 2009.
[13] Loren Cobb, “The Causes of Global Warming : A Graphical Approach”, The Quaker Economist 7(158), 2007.
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○ 지표면 온도의 상승은 특히 식물 생태계를 교란함으로서 이전에는 발견되지 않던 화분(airborne pollen)이 발견되었으며, 화분양의 급격한 증가가 보고[14]되고 있어서, 이에 따른 인체영향이 우려됨
○ 한편 지구온난화는 사막지대를 늘려 황사 등 대기 내 미세먼지 양을 급격히 증가시키며[15], 이는 생태계 변화 및 인체 호흡기 및 심혈관계 기능에 많은 영향을 미치게 됨
2.1.2.2 대기질 영향
□ 대기질은 인간 건강, 생태계는 물론 건물이나 공공시설과 같은 건축물의 경제적