Global Cooperation 140265 Miki KOBAYASHI

1,Darwin`s nightmare2,Education opens doors3,The MDGs 2000-20154,Investment for growth5,Demographic change may alter the trajectory of global development

Darwin’s Nightmare

Lake VictoriaBefore 1960’s, there were many kind of fish in this lake.

However, someone took Nile Perch into this lake.

Nile Perch is meat eating.Nile Perch eat the other fish.Therefore, there is no fish but Nile Perch.

➡However

Economy flourished because employment was created by nile perch.Actually, in Muwanza, there are 1000 employees in factory around Lake Victoria.A lot of fishermen are working at Lake Victoria.

↓There is no job without nile perch.Nile perch led to benefit!!

The relationship of problems around Lake Victoria

fisherman

HIV/AIDS

whore

povertySexual

relationdead

HIV/AIDS

There are many poor people around the lake and they die of dangerous diseases, especially HIV/AIDS.There are ４５００００～５０００００　 people die in a half year.

There are women who lost her husbands because of HIV/AIDS.➡They become whores to earn money

Children around Lake Victoria

• Many children live in street around Lake Victoria.• Both their parents are working. Father is fishermen, mother is whore.　 They die of HIV/AIDS.

➡Street children live in bad environment, they smoke and drug.

Go to Africa from EU

For 　 example…

⤵The Russian airplane come from West Africa or Europe with baggage(weapons ）↓ go toConflict zone (ex. Angola, Congo) 　 to give weapons↓ Lake Victoria to load nile perch on the plane↓Europe to deliver nile perch↩

conclusionNile Perch influence on many things.➡ （ HIV/AIDS, arms smuggling, whores)

The number of people who benefit from Nile Perch are little.

Education Opens Doors

Primary education

• 89 % of world’s school-age children were enrolled 　　　　　　⇓ 11 % of those were not 　　↪ 75 % were in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa• Reasons ・ inaccessible location ・ teacher and parents are indifferent ・ related cost ・ religious problem(?)

Enrollment and Completion rates

• Important measures of education successful education

• Education quality ＆ learning achievement

　 Sustainable development ＆ poverty alleviation

Secondary and tertiary enrollment

only Europe and Central Asia

only 50%

MDGs

• “ensure that by 2015, children everywhere, boys and girls alike will be able to complete a full course of primary schooling."

The MDGs 2000-2015~Poverty, development and the future~

What is MDGs?

• 190 world leaders committed the support of their governments at the very start of the new Millennium.

• This is formally adopted at the General Assembly of the United Nations held in New York on 18 September 2000, which was referred to as the UN Millennium Summit.

• The MDGs consist of eight overarching goals, each to be achieved by 2015.

8 overarching goals 18 targets 48 details

• Eradicate extreme hunger and poverty• Achieve universal primary education • Promote gender equality and empower women• Reduce child mortality• Improve maternal health• Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases• Ensure environment sustainability• Develop a global partnership for development⇒together they can be regarded as making up a comprehensive agenda for global development in the 21 century

　• The MDGs proper relate to the period 2000-2015.

• 2007-2008 represents the mid-point toward this.

⇒what has been achieved so far, and on the trends of then, which of the goals are likely to be achieved by 2015??

The unequivocal answer of MDGs

• There has been good progress with some of the goals in some parts of the world, however, overall progress is best described as “patchy”.

→this is well exemplified if we look at one of the major targets relating to the `eradication` of poverty and hunger.

If this rate remains on track, this global poverty indicator will fall to 12.5 percent in 2015, less than half the level recorded in 1990.But it is clear that progress has been uneven when viewed by major continental division.

The MDGs targets can be met in the various world regions by 2015.

16 targets ×10 regions =160 16 cases has already been met

40 is expected to be met by 2015 34 is no progress 66 isn`t expected to be met

All 16 constituent boxes showing either no progress

or that the target is not expected to be met.

⇒there clearly remains a great deal to be done

• While progress is being made in certain regions, and in particular respects, there remains an enormous amount to do if gross inequalities are to be meaningfully reduced.

• Development and anti-development are extremely important concepts, for they exist in a global context where differences in wealth, opportunity and choice appear to be widening at their extremes rather than narrowing.

⇒some poorer nations are showing enhanced incomes in relation to the rich nations of the West, however, the majority are continuing to fall yet further behind.

Bill Clinton (in The Richard Dimbleby Lecture, 2001)

• `we in the wealth countries have to spread the benefits of the twenty-first century world and reduce the risks, so we can make more partners and fewer terrorists in the future`

• `we have built a world where we tore down barriers, collapsed distances and spread information. And the UK and America have benefited richly`

But he regards as the burdens of the twenty-first century• Over half the world are excluded from the benefits of the new global economy.• `what kind of economy leaves half the people behind?`

Investment for growth

• Investment means the increased part of capital in the fixed period of time• On average, 22 percent of the world’s output is

invested for production purposes.• Physical investment buildings machinery and equipment additions to inventories improvements of property

Investment domestic savings external savings

• External savings is limited and generally more unstable than domestic savings

• To sustain economic growth, government policies must create a climate that encourage productive investment

• Government policies encourage firms and entrepreneurs to invest productively, create jobs, and contribute to growth and poverty reduction

East Asia and Pacific region has

had highest investment rates,

40 percent

Sub-Saharan Africa had the lowest

investment rates, 20 percent

government・ Government policies play a key role and influence the security of property rights the effectiveness of regulation the impact of taxation the quality and accessibility of infrastructure the functioning of financial and labor markets・ Poor governance increases transaction costs, encourages unproductive activities, and reduces transparency

Misallocation of resources and discourages new investment

• China and some of the other ‘tigers’ in the East Asia and the Pacific region have obtained spectacular growth rates

• However, high levels of investment do not guarantee high growth rate.

• Investment produces growth but investment also disturbs growth

Demographic change may alter the trajectory of global development

What is “demographic dividend”?

What is “demographic dividend” ?

• It is called “ 人口ボーナス” in japan.

• To raise economic growth by increasing production capacity and purchasing power which is caused from rising working-age population.

• Recent years, we can see declining fertility rates with low birthrates and longevity.

Demographic dividend

First demographic dividend

• Growing labor force supports fewer children.

• Transitory benefits.

Second demographic dividend

• Savings built up and greater investment in human and physical capital.

• Lasting benefits in the form of greater productivity and sustainable development.

⇒These are not automatic, but represent an opportunity of greater prosperity and improved living standards.

First

fertility rates decline ↓

second

economic growth ↓

　　　　　　　　　↓ productivity growth and enhanced sustainable development.

lobar force > population

Saving rates, investment

Diversity and commonality

• another classification that distinguishes countries in their ability

To capture To harness the demographic dividend.• Diversity in the direction and pace of demographic change

across and even within countries.• Commonality across countries in their ability to capture it.

⇒ the world can be divided into four types of countries.

Four types

Pre-dividend countries• Low income • Fertility rates(4 births per woman)• Rapid population growthbut, their dependency rates are expected to decline as children reach working-age.

They need to lay the foundations for realizing the first demographic dividend.

Early-dividend countries• Lower-middle income• Fertility rates have fallen• Working-age population is rising

They need to focus on capturing the first demographic dividend and laying the foundation for realizing the second one.

Four types

Late-dividend countries• Upper-middle income• Fertility rates (2,1 births per

woman)• Working-age population is shrinking• Very rapid aging

Reaping the second demographic dividend is crucial.

Post-dividend countries• High-income• The highest shares of elderly• They are experienced the bonus

from first demographic dividend.

They can still reap the second one from savings and investments.

pre-countries

Early-countries

Late-countries

Post-countries

foundation

foundation

First dividend

Second dividend

• Falling population growth • Rising life expectancy• Declining infant mortality fertility rates

These are related to development success.

The difference between pre- and early-

*this can play a role in reducing poverty

pre-• Slowly• 1/4 of population lives in urban areas• 2/3 of population lives in slums

Early-• Rapidly• Doubling the urban share to half over the period

urbanization

Lower secondary education completion rates 　 * 前期中等教育

Pre- 36%Early- 72%

These disparities pose a challenge in the face of continued rapid population growth.

education

Early-• Lower poverty rates because this group

includes countries which have many population

• Account for half of the global poor

Pre-• They manage to reduce poverty

headcount, but rapid population growth limit the reduction in the number of the poor

Pre- and Early- account for about 90 percent of global poverty

Bangladesh,

India

Late-dividend countries

• They are potentially resulting in headwinds to economic growth

• Since 1950s, late- have made substantial improvements in life expectancy

↓　 late- will have the same age-structure as post- by 2050.

The lasting demographic changes are likely to further slow the growth engine in these economies, particularly in the absence of policy adjustment.

Post-dividend countries

• They are the major exports for pre- and early- (account for 2/3 of global import demand)

• If growth in post- slows, pre- and early- need to find alternative export market

• Their national savings rate is expected to fall, leading to a possible slowdown in capital flows to the rest of the world

Demographic change may alter the trajectory of global development