governing education in a context of economic recession

Governing education in a context of economic recession

Dirk Van DammeHead of the Centre for Educational Research and Innovation - OECD

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Outline

• Impact of the recession on education

• Changing policy contexts

• Governance of education systems

• Some conclusions

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“A crisis is a terrible thing to waste”

Paul Romer – Emanuel Rahm

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Impact of the recession on education

• Rising demand for education– Lower opportunity costs for education– Delaying entry on the labour market is a

rational strategy– Private sector reducing investments in

training– Hence, increased demand for post-

compulsory education, especially in VET• But private cost of participation also

increases– Some countries increase private cost,

while others try to contain the private cost by social measures

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• Private benefits from post-compulsory education continue to be high in most countries– High private return– But also high social returns

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• Transition from school to labour market becomes more difficult– Rising youth unemployment probably the

most visible and problematic social consequence of the recession

– On average in OECD increase in youth unemployment rate from 10.3% to 13.5% from 2008 to 2009

– Low schooled people are very vulnerable for weak employment opportunities

When the crisis hitPercentage point change between 2008-09 in unemployment rate for the 15-29 year-olds

Portugal

Germany

Belgium

Sweden

Denmark

Poland

Finland

OECD average

Australia

United Kingdom

Hungary

Czech Republic

Turkey

Ireland

Iceland

(10.00) (5.00) - 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00

Below upper secondary education Tertiary education

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• Most governments try to contain the impact of the recession and fiscal consolidation on education budgets– In 2009 and 2010 still few signs of budget

cuts in education, but notable exceptions in a few countries

– Some countries included educational investments in their stimulus measures

– 2011 and 2012 budgets may result in different picture

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• Many countries see the recession as an opportunity to accelerate educational reform– Tackling youth employment, meeting

increased educational demand, prepare future economic growth and fostering innovation

• Educational reform more and more focused on increasing efficiency in education systems

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Primary Secondary Tertiary VET

Australia Reduction

Belgium (Fl) Acceleration

Denmark Acceleration

Finland Reduction Reduction Reduction

Greece Acceleration Acceleration Acceleration Acceleration

Hungary Reduction Reduction Acceleration

Ireland Expansion Expansion Expansion Expansion

Japan Expansion Expansion Expansion

Korea Acceleration Reduction

Portugal Expansion

Spain Acceleration Acceleration Acceleration

Sweden Expansion

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Changing policy contexts

• Changing skills policies– Competition between nations in high-

qualified and high-skilled people is rising– High social costs of low skills– Qualifications without matching skills

levels will become economically detrimental

– Growing importance of comparative and realistic assessment of skills and learning outcomes (PISA, PIAAC, AHELO)

– Importance of changing skills demands as result of technology and innovation (21st C skills)

Growth in university-level qualificationsApproximated by the percentage of the population that has attained tertiary-type A education in the

age groups 25-34 years, 35-44 years, 45-54 years and 55-64 years (2008)

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2000's 1990's 1980's 1970's

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Low skills and economic outcomes

0 1 2 3 41.0

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In lowest two quintiles of personal income

Unemployed

Received social as-sistance in last year

Did not receive in-vestment income in last year

Number of skills domains with low performance

Increased likelihood of failure (16-65 year olds)

Odds are adjusted for age, gender and immigration status.

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Changing policy contexts

• Efficiency of education systems will become top-priority– Most education systems have seen a

significant increase in resources over the past 10 years without a comparable increase in output

– Especially failing schools will come into the picture

– Schools and teachers more and more held accountable for learning outcomes

– Policies focusing on the efficiency gaps in the system

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Governance

• Recent trends in educational governance– From central regulation to decentralisation

and deregulation• Often intended, not always realised• Multiplication of governance levels

– From input- to output steering– Stakeholder participation and more

demand-oriented policies– Increasing school autonomy

• School leadership and management• Local control over curricula

Governance

Main level of decision-making regarding secondary education

curriculum

School Mixed Central

Central influence

Low (highly flexible)

Australia, Hungary,

Netherlands, New

Zealand, Scotland

Korea Iceland

Neutral

Estonia, Finland, France, Japan

Italy, Norway, Sweden

Austria, Luxembourg,

Mexico, Portugal,

Spain, Slovenia, Turkey

High (control from a distance)

Belgium (Fl.), Czech

Republic, England

~ ~

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Governance

• Recent trends in educational governance– Increasing accountability on performance

• Based on measurable objectives and indicators

– ‘Governing by numbers’

– Focus on evaluation and quality assurance– Increasing transparency

• Both at institutional and system level• Transparency on all dimensions:

– Input– Process– Outputs

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Governance

• Contemporary governance models are combination of public regulation and market mechanisms

• Crucial role of knowledge and evidence in central and local governance– ‘Evidence-based policy and practice’– New information and feedback systems in

education

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Conclusions

• The economic recession has not (yet) hit the education system but has set the conditions for a policy context which will focus more on effectiveness in realising outcomes (skills for employability) and efficiency

• Governance in education is changing with more local control but also more accountability and transparency

• Trust in education (for producing outcomes, for matching qualifications with skills, …) will become a critical factor in educational competition

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Thank you !

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