green growth in denmark towards 2050 - dac · professor katherine richardson copenhagen university...

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Participating municipalities

Copenhagen, Aarhus , Aalborg, Odense, Ringkøbing-SkjernSønderborg, Fredericia, Middelfart, Kalundborg and Høje-Taastrup

Participating regions

The Capital Region of Denmark, the Region of Southern Denmark, North Denmark Region

Analysis partners

The partnership behind DK2050

Knowledge panel

Professor Katherine Richardson Copenhagen University Professor Mark Lorenzen Copenhagen Business School Professor Brian Vad Mathiesen Aalborg University Professor Gertrud Jørgensen Copenhagen University

Curator of the biennale exhibition

Project developer

Supported by Architects

Co-curator of ”Sustainable Danish cities and city regions towards 2050”

Future possibilitiesPresent actions

Green growth in Denmark towards 2050Four future scenarios

Made by DAMVAD & Kairos Future

2 DK2050 – Green Growth in Denmark towards 2050 – DAMVAD

Drawn up by

DAMVAD and Kairos Future

Part of the project DK2050

See more about the project at dac.dk/dk2050 Follow the project on twitter @DK2050_DAC and #DK2050

ISBN 978-87-90668-64-8

2nd edition

If using the material, please creditThe Danish Architecture Centre DK2050 andDAMVAD/Kairos Future when using graphics.

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Contents

ABOUT THE REPORT . . . . . . . . . 3

RESUME . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

1 . INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . 13

2 . THE SCENARIO METHOD BEHIND DK2050 . . . . . . . . . 172.1 Scenario development as a method . . . . . 17

2.2 Trends and uncertainties . . . . . . . . . . . . 17

2.3 Strategic uncertainties . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18

2.4 The problem . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19

2.5 Interactive, iterative, qualitative . . . . . . . . 19

2.6 The demarcation of the scenarios . . . . . . 20

3 . DENMARK THEN AND NOW – THE STARTING POINT FOR THE FUTURE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 253.1 The story about green transition . . . . . . . 26

3.2 The development in numbers –

then, now and in the future . . . . . . . . . . 28

4 . TRENDS AND STRATEGIC UNCERTAINTIES . . . . . . . . 374.1 Working with trends and uncertainties . . . 37

4.2 Trends – safe developments . . . . . . . . . . 37

4.3 Uncertainties . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39

4.4 Strategic uncertainties . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41

4.5 Four scenarios . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43

5 . GREEN STATE . . . . . . . . . . 455.1 2050: Green for the state and the

community . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45

5.2 This is how it happened . . . . . . . . . . . . 46

5.3 Timeline for Green state . . . . . . . . . . . . 54

6 . GREEN NETWORKS . . . . . . . 576.1 2050: Goals from above –

action from below . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57


6.3 Timeline for Green networks . . . . . . . . . 64

MATRIX FOR 10 DANISH CITIES IN 2050 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66

7 . GREEN GUERILLA . . . . . . . . 717.1 2050: Market and civilian society are

in control . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71


7.3 Timeline for Green guerilla . . . . . . . . . . . 78

8 . GREEN COMPROMISES . . . . 818.1 2050: Growth for the state and

the community . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81


8.3 Timeline for Green compromises . . . . . . . 88

MATRIX FOR THE FOUR SCENARIOS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90

9 . STRATEGIC DILEMMAS REGARDING GREEN TRANSITION . . . . . . 93

LITERATURE LIST . . . . . . . . . . 97

APPENDIX I – THE EXPERIENCES OF LARGE CITIES IN NORTHERN EUROPE . . . . . . . 101

APPENDIX II – CITY RESEARCH THROUGH THREE DECADES . . . . . . . . . . . 107

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About the report

This report, ‘Green growth in Denmark towards 2050 – Four future scenarios’ deals with both complex and challenging problems concerning Denmark and the green transition of Danish cities in a future perspective. Everyone agrees that a comprehensive green transition in both industry and society is necessary to lower CO2 emissions. But what are the conditions for this and what freedom of action is there? It cannot impact the growth and quality of life in denmark. How is that possible? What developmental trends are indicated for the green transition for Danish municipalities up until 2050? In order to be able to answer these complex problems we use the scenario method.

Firstly, the report gives an introduction to the scenario method and the large collective work with trends and uncertainties that have been ongoing in the project in the last year. Then there is a historic retrospective on the events and incidents that condition the future perspectives at the centre of our attention. As we can read in the historic events, looking 35 years into the future is not that far. For instance, it has already been 35 years since DTU and Risø built ’the world’s largest windmill’ by Ulfborg in Western Jutland during the oil crisis and with help from researchers from abroad. And it has already been 17 years since the fixed connection over the Great Belt was opened.

In a way scenarios are memories from the past. Really, memories are qualitative. Therefore scenarios are not the same as prognoses or linear projections of the situation today. They reach further. They demand creative thinking, discussions and imagination. Still, scenarios can benefit from relating to the reality of how things look today and which can be projected 10–15 years using prognoses. Because even though a lot can change, much will be stable or only change gradually over time.

Therefore we have put the development into numbers. With statistical data we show how Denmark looks today in the area of energy and environment, transport, business and economy, and in relation to population trends etc. The historical retrospect and the statistical overview are followed by a thorough description of four different scenarios. For all four scenarios we review the development towards 2050 focusing on international and national development, the development in different cities and cities of different sizes and development in the areas of energy, transport, business, economy, population and society. In all scenarios we also pay attention to the events that were the most important stepping stones leading up to 2050.

Finally the report deals with the strategic dilemmas that can be drawn up for the green transition of the future in the light of our four scenarios. What are the consequences and what impact do they have for Denmark and the Danish cities. What do they have to respond to? What uncertainties are there when they choose a strategy for the future?

To conclude, we describe the concrete experience of five large Northern European cities with specific green transition projects that we think the Danish cities can learn from. Also, we have made an overview of how city research has developed over the last three decades. The overview shows how different scientific areas obtain an even larger integration, which indicates a rising degree of interdisciplinary research. This may be due to the fact that researchers have found out that the solutions to the challenges that the cities are facing cannot be solved with one-sided efforts but that it takes a wider foundation to succeed. This is a picture that is seen in several of the scenarios and what appears when you build on the green transition the way we do here.

HAPPY READING AND HAPPY DEBATE.

Strong interaction between politics and green technology

Weak interaction between politics and green technology

Individual values and lifestyles dominate how people relate to other groups and to society as a whole

Collective values and lifestyles dominate how people relate to other groups and to society as a whole

GREEN STATE

GREEN COMPROMISES

GREEN GUERILLA

GREEN NETWORKS

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Resumé

DK2050 is a unique scenario project which is managed by the Danish Architecture Centre. The project gathers representatives from 10 larger and smaller municipalities, four ministries, three regions, funds and private businesses to further innovative thinking and set up concrete scenarios for how we can live in cities and city regions in the future.

DK2050 relates to the possible futures and directions in which Danish cities and regions can direct themselves towards in order to organize healthy and sustainable cities. Which selections and rejections will cities and regions have to make in light of the green transition with the need to reduce CO2 emissions through to 2050?

The recurring question for the scenario development process has been:

Which development trends have an effect on the green transition of Danish municipalities through to 2050?

The purpose of developing scenarios is not to deliver one precise picture of the future but to stimulate reflection and consideration about what might be the central elements and variables in the development, which might affect and shape this future. The purpose of the scenario development process is to motivate us to expand our thinking about some of the circumstances affecting the cities, society and green transition in a broader sense. The goal is to further a lively, inspiring and fruitful discussion about all the possibilities and challenges that can shape the future for the cities and the green transition of society over the next 35 years.

At three camps with the participation of more than 100 representatives from the above institutions, a string of trends and changes in society and the economy have been identified. These have been the object of in-depth analysis, tests, gradation and description in the scenario teams of DAMVAD and Kairos Future complemented by valuable input and commentaries from experts within energy, transport, geography and urban development in a scientific panel and at the Danish Architecture Centre. On the background of this the identified trends have been complemented and adjusted or deselected. The result is a list of definite trends and a list with uncertainties that have consequences for differences in the development directions in the four developed scenarios. The uncertainties are particularly interesting to keep working on for the project because they are the ones that can give different development directions shaped by their different outcomes.

Two uncertainties stand out from this process as particularly important. Firstly it is uncertain to which degree collective or individual values will dominate. Secondly it is an important uncertainty whether the interaction between political action and green technology will work or not. On the basis of the two strategic uncertainty discussions we have developed four different scenarios with each making up a possible description of Denmark in 2050. The four scenarios and the overall strategic uncertainties are best illustrated in a scenario cross shown on the previous Side.


Green stateThe first scenario we have chosen to call Green state. Here we describe how in 2050 the state has had a revival and taken control of green transition. The strong role of the state is supported by the return in society of collective values. The Danes vote left and green and prioritise collective green solutions which have been initiated and implemented by public players and financed through the common tax and charge system. There is a strong interaction between the state’s policies and the green technological development and implementation.

The international cooperation in the EU, UN and in the Nordic countries is permeated by the same collective currents, albeit with some regional variations. Climate challenges and green transitions are high on the political agenda and there is a large consensus amongst the world’s advanced economies to follow and common goals for CO2 reductions and energy optimisation. The frames are binding. Most countries, with Russia as an important exception, have signed treaties binding them to reduce their CO2 emissions year by year.

There is generally a low conflict level internationally. However, there are regional tensions and at times armed conflicts, both in Africa and Eastern Europe where there are countries with large ethnic minorities. The conflicts largely only involve local parties. The USA, EU, Russia, China and India do not interfere in the conflicts. The tensions between Russia and the EU concerning Crimea and Ukraine in the 2010s incited a hitherto unseen agreement between the EU countries to free themselves from the dependency of gas from Russia and focus on renewable energy sources.

Denmark and the largest Danish cities are not just participating in but are leading the international climate cooperation.In 2050 China and India have become economic growth and power centres. China’s GDP is double that of the USA’s in 2050. The two countries have almost got earlier problems of poverty, inequality, pollution and corruption under control. The enormous Chinese and Indian middle classes drive the demand and development in mega metropoles. This furthers innovation and the green transition in the world stems from China in 2050. Denmark and the other Western economies heavily orientate themselves towards these countries. The climate is high on the agenda in Asia. Already in 2040 China phased out carbon energy and focused primarily on sun, water and wind energy as primary energy sources. It is also here, in the new Asian mega metropoles that the new efficient city solutions within construction, energy, waste and transport are developed and tested. Quickly afterwards they are introduced in cities in other parts of the world.

For the same reason CO2 reduction and green transition is also high on the national Danish agenda. The state and the collective are again in control but now together with the strong focus on CO2 reduction, renewable energy and other green transition. Thereby there is also a prioritisation of energy efficient solutions and more concentrated population development. As a consequence, in 2050 Denmark has managed to become 100% independent of fossil fuels and has instead become 100% carbon-neutral and based on renewable energy. This has further pushed urbanisation and growth in the four largest city regions, Copenhagen, Aarhus, Odense and Aalborg.

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Amongst the medium-sized cities (the classic market towns) some manage well and some less well. The medium-sized cities doing well are those that are functionally linked to the four large cities’ employment market and business development. The small towns and local communities are generally not prioritised, they have lost their significance, and the development has stagnated, with a very few exceptions. The green transition ambition is generally high across the cities. The circular economy and the green GDP goal has become a reality.

Citizens and businesses prioritise green lifestyle, the climate adaptation is proactive and there is a high degree of central recycling. There is green and tall construction. The building mass is concentrated and becomes more homogenous. The energy supply for homes and businesses is based on cross-national large-scale solutions with a high level of renewable energy and with a prioritisation of wind and biomass as sources of supply in particular.

There has been a similar tendency for the business community to have become more concentrated. Big business is localised in and around the largest city regions or in some cases in the medium-sized cities which are functionally linked to the larger cities.

Green networksIn the second scenario, Green networks, the city and societal development in Denmark in 2050 are permeated by values and behaviour saluting the individual freedom of choice. The technological development and digitalisation are supported by ambitious goals of green transition with a focus on networksing, integration and functionality across many different green solutions. Technologies have been likewise

strengthened the opportunities for citizens and businesses individually and locally to have great autonomy in making their own choices.

There is an absence of great cross-national decisions about physical infrastructure which can link the major cities and the medium-sized cities in larger functioning regions. But players and systems are tied together digitally. There are large differences between the choice of solutions and how well the cities have succeeded in maintaining and strengthening their attractiveness and development ability in competition with other cities.

Internationally, climate is high on the agenda. The cooperation in the EU and internationally happens from common and ambitious goals for reduction of CO2 emissions and energy optimisation. But the frames are not binding. Countries, cities, businesses and citizens have the opportunity to choose different roads to green transition based on technological opportunities, differences in the market and different traditions, cultures and prospects. Internationally, several countries and most of all China have invested enormous resources in becoming a leader in the field of research and innovation when it comes to green technologies. China’s dominating position in 2050 has great significance for the success of Danish businesses in the field of cleantech. Building on the ambitious Danish ventures on green clusters and the export of green technology in the 10s and 20s, Danish businesses have had plenty of time to focus on the development of Danish strengths on the Chinese market. Thus they are prepared for the fact that standards and the direction of the development are largely set by the Asian market in 2050. The level of conflict is low internationally. regional conflicts and and


wars have become fewer and do not occupy our minds or the climate agenda.

In Denmark, accordingly, the climate is high on the agenda. The less binding international framework is a good match for the Danish political self-understanding where the particular role of the state is to unite the nation around the common goals and let the market and the citizens deliver and pick solutions that live up to the overall goals. A green GDP and a circular economy have been implemented and it is filled out by a green lifestyle and behaviour amongst citizens and businesses.

There is a large degree of sorting and recycling in the area of waste. The energy supply is diverse but with a high level of renewable energy. Construction is green, not very tall and very diverse. The most important thing is that the new and modified buildings work efficiently when it comes to energy and are integrated in a smart way into the ecosystem of the large city.

Urbanisation is roaring ahead. The ambitious goals for green transition are widely agreed upon however. There are, though, large variations and spatial possibilities for the different kinds of development in cities. Some will grow vigorously, others will stall and recede.

The liberal frame-setting gives the best conditions for growth for the four largest cities and for the small towns. The innovative possibilities and the market development is best filled out by the large cities with their critical mass of innovative businesses, knowledge institutions and talent. The larger, the better. Copenhagen and Aarhus are absolute growth centres. After them the growth gathers around Odense and Aalborg.

The development conditions for the small towns are also good, but dependent on their specific historical advantages, unique amenity value and local activists. The logic is that it does not take a lot to create a success in a small town under the existing conditions. With these free boundaries, bottom-up solutions thrive as well as the individual choices in the small cities that have the will to do so.

On the other hand many of the medium-sized town (the traditional market towns) have had difficulties when it comes to growth in 2050. With the absence of state interference and cross-national solutions the the medium-sized towns are not functionally well linked to the largest cities and they lack the critical mass of innovative businesses, knowledge institutions and talent. At the same time citizens and businesses expect that the cities can deliver when it comes to the common goals about about green transition and attractiveness that have been expressed overall, even though the resources for this are not adequate. You could say that the medium-sized towns are caught in being too small to be able to take advantage of the free boundaries to choose their own efficient solutions and approaches to green transition and at the same time they are too large to have the possibilities for local amenity value, quality of life, local activists etc, that some of the smallest towns have. There are, however, a few exceptions amongst the smallest towns that do well, either because they succeed in focusing on being unique or because they are very close to a large city, for instance Høje Taastrup.

The logic is the same for the business community as for the cities. In this market the larger businesses have all the preconditions for taking advantage of the free boundaries

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and the more unobtrusive state. The very small ones are also thriving because their costs are lower and they face fewer demands. The medium-sized ones have a hard time competing with big business and small business. The business locations happen primarily in and around the largest cities where talent and knowledge institutions are localised with a certain critical mass.

Green guerillaThe third scenario we have named Green guerilla. In this scenario the green transition in Denmark is characterised by individual market players and citizens’ groups take responsibility themselves and define goals and boundaries. There is a lack of governmental control and common overview and coordination. The result is an enormous variation with thousands of larger and smaller local projects, each making a difference, but they are not integrated or related to anything other than the realisation of their own goals.

The backdrop for this market dominated bottom-up approach to green transition is the prolonged inability to act of the political system. This both internationally, in the EU and in Denmark. On the international agenda and in the EU the climate problem is only discussed bi-annually and often in connection with how to react to how to mitigate the consequences of less stable weather and more climate refugees. The discussions do not lead to a consensus on common goals or any kinds of binding agreements. At the same time the international agenda is characterised by a high level of conflict with a string of regional conflicts in Eastern europe, the Middle East, Asia and Africa, engaging Russia, the EU, China and the USA.

In a world without goals and means for a green transition and with a focus on other problems Denmark as a small country does not have many opportunities to act alone and be more ambitious than its surroundings. And it is not the approach Danish politicians have chosen either. The green leader role of the state phases out during the 20s and in 2050 lacks both focus and the ability to act. This has a direct rub-off effect on business investments and innovation which start avoiding the cleantech sector. This means that green technology is not on the list of the largest Danish export groups in 2050 despite the fact that there is a considerable demand for green solutions from large city development projects in countries such as China, India, Brazil and many of the African growth economies.

A green GDP and the circular economy are still discussed but there is no political will to go in this direction for Denmark as a whole.

The largest cities drive growth but it is not followed up by high ambitions for green transition. Congestion, lack of housing, water, energy and other challenges linked to the population growth in the largest cities are sought solved locally and without any large investments in infrastructure, construction, water, waste or energy supply. This lessens the population growth and the economic growth in business that cannot be absorbed as a result of the lack of systems thinking in the green transition. The technological development is likewise more anarchic and the spread and use in and outside of Denmark is heterogenous.

Construction is scattered and very varied but not always green. The energy supply is large-scale and outdated with a low level


for renewable energy as a result of the lack of public ambitions. However, it has created a breeding ground for a smouldering disaffectation in the shape of independent initiatives from both the occasional large businesses and dynamic citizens’ groups. Special recycling plants linked up to large businesses locally and small windmills and solar cells are examples of initiatives coming up from below. But this happens with no connection to the existing public energy system and without governmental funding or economic incentives. They are solely carried by the wish amongst the players of the individual projects of making a difference for the climate and the environment locally.

Without cross-national solutions in the transport and energy area the medium-sized cities are cut off from the growth in the largest cities and generally lose their significance. Many of the local initiatives take place in the progressive quarters in the large cities with a large proportion of youth and resourceful talents or in small towns with great amenity value, local activists and small businesses that can gather interest and funds for their projects. The medium-sized cities, the classic market towns find it hard to compete with both the large and the small ones and are therefore seriously hard-pressed.

Green compromisesFinally we have as the fourth scenario described a society we call Green compromises. Here, the state is in a strong position in 2050 and is supported by the return of collective values in society. The Danes do not see CO2 emissions and climate changes as a part of the threat scenario. Instead several decades with low growth, gradual wealth and welfare reductions

and a generally rising international level of conflict made the Danes come together around a strong state and cross-national and collective solutions that prioritise economic development and growth higher than green transition. The same trends and patterns can be seen in most other EU and OECD countries.

Global NGOs attempted again and again to get the lack of green transition on the agenda but with no luck since new international and geopolitical conflicts dominated. The violence in Russia and Eastern Europe, which began with Russia’s annexation of the Crimean Peninsula and the unrest in Ukraine in 2014, continued long into the 2020s. Not until 2024 was an agenda set for negotiations and political stability between Russia, the EU and the USA.

As a result of “the Russian crisis” a large wish arose in most EU countries to become independent of gas from Russia. As a consequence the demand for fossil fuels energy rose and Denmark once again began investing heavily in extraction. The same tendency for a new fossil fuel strategy was seen in other Western countries and the USA was seen as a model example with its successful extraction of shale gas.

At the same time the years from 2015–2040 were heavily marked by more and more global and international crises and conflicts. Several of these were partly the result of the climate changes creating migrations and floods of refugees as well as fights for resources since large areas were uninhabitable. The reactions on this in Denmark and other more ‘climate lucky’ countries was economic support for the affected areas and help for building up an emergency preparedness in the countries

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receiving the refugees. the development is not seen to be linked politically with climate changes caused by humans. Other challenges are considered more important.

With a strong state as well as cross-national and collective solutions prioritising economic development in the entire country there is no focus on green transition. Still, in 2050 Denmark has achieved reducing CO2 emissions and make itself partly independent of fossil fuels. This is due to the continued development and implementation of central energy systems for the larger cities based on amongst other things district heating, natural gas, central combined heat/power stations, windmills on land and at sea, large-scale solar power and municipal waste systems.

Now there is a focus on linking the medium-sized cities on the capital, Aarhus, Odense and Aalborg so that the possibilities for growth can reach the whole country. The consequence is that the urbanisation trend, with the hitherto large migration to and the growth of the largest cities loses some of its power. It is not enough to stop the urbanisation, however. Thus, the largest cities continue to grow, but the emigration from t they in turn get migrants from the small towns which generally recede.

The low ambitions for green transition amongst politicians is in accordance with the wishes of the majority of the population in 2050. Many new buildings are constructed and construction is scattered, varied and rarely green. The energy supply is large-scale. The focus continues to be on burning fossil fuels and on district heating with a low level of recycling and renewable energy. The transport is probably both as public transport and cross-

national but it does not have any advantages for private car use. Hybrid cars are normal but the electric car has not had the breakthrough that was hoped for in the 10s. Danish business particularly consists of many small businesses and a few very big ones. They are localised all over the country but with a tendency to concentrate in the largest city regions around the capital, Aarhus, Odense and Aalborg.

We have chosen to supply the four scenarios with data and outlines of important developments up until today, forecasts and projections of dates, timelines with possible important events as well as literature studies describing the scientific debate in the area.

In continuation of the scenario descriptions we have tentatively outlined a series of central strategic challenges and dilemmas in connection with the choices Danish cities must make to carry out the green transition.

Of course the strategic changes are very much revolved about city development and green transition, but just as much about the design of the tax and charge system, energy supply, technology choices, funding of the welfare state, demography, the adaptation and competitive power of businesses, types of transport and the behaviour of citizens and consumers.

Cities have always played a considerable role in the change of society. But today the concentration of human resourced, businesses as well as knowledge and educational institutions make the cities natural centres for development more than ever before. This goes for all areas, not least when it comes to the green transition of Danish society. The strong trends that have left their mark on the development of the cities when it comes to green transition are relatively easy to read now and in retrospect. This is not least the case for the heavy urbanisation, where settlement and growth are concentrated more and more around the largest cities, the increased transport and mobility between the city centres and the technological and digital development which to a larger and larger degree shapes the interaction between people in the modern cities.

However, the future is a different and very uncertain story. We can assume that values will change but we know very little about how this will affect the development and the direction of the change. Similarly the collective political ability to act can be assumed to be challenged but how and how much we do not know. We can also assume that the future will contain great technological changes but in what areas and how it will affect us is also uncertain. The uncertainties are great and many.

The purpose of this project is to study how the future for Danish cities and the green transition can unfold over the next 35 years. In the project DK2050 we develop scenarios describing possible directions for development making it possible to identify how the Danish cities and Denmark will look in the light of the green transition with reduction of CO2 emissions towards 2050.

The recurrent question for the scenario process has been:

Which development trends affect the green transition of Danish municipalities up until 2050?

The purpose of developing scenarios is not to deliver one particular picture of the future but to stimulate reflection about what could be the central elements and variables in the evelopment that can affect and shape this future.

The purpose of the scenario development process is to motivate us to expand our thinking about some of the conditions that affect the cities, society and the green transition in a broader sense. The goal is to further a lively, inspiring and productive discussion about every possibility and challenge that may shape the future for the green transition of the cities and society over the next 35 years.

Through discussions on day-long camps and workshops with the participation of more than 150 representatives from smaller and larger Danish cities, regions, ministries and private funds and businesses and through the obtaining of international knowledge and inspiration and in-depth analyses of trends, all has been distilled into four possible scenarios. They represent different directions of development for the Danish cities and Danish society as a whole in light of the green transition. All four scenarios identify possibilities and risks linked with the societal development that the cities must operate in. This goes for transport systems and mobility, energy and environment, business community and growth as well as the citizens’ life in the city.

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1 . Introduction

This is what gives the scenario development process value. The scenarios are meant to make it possible for the cities to plan their green transition with a starting point in realistic but also challenging ideas about possibilities and threats in the future. Strategies for the future are only strong if they can handle and understand the considerable uncertainties that can affect the development.

The cities as economic engines for growthThe cities of the world have steadily assumed a more central role in the global economy. Countless analyses show that cities are important for economic growth because they offer a good framework for development by acting as meeting places for people, businesses and economic activity1.

Urbanisation and the appearance of mega metropoles have led to over 50% of the world’s population living in cities today. At the same time it is significant the cities are drivers of growth and it is estimated that 80% of the world’s GDP is created in cities and all of 50% in the 380 largest cities in the Western part of the world.

This is also the case in Denmark where regions with large cities have dominated the economic growth and the creation of jobs through the last decades2, while in small and medium-sized cities outside of these growth areas have fought with stagnation or falling employment3. At the same time the competition to attract economic activity to the cities in the shape investments, businesses, labour, tourists and new citizens has intensified at the same speed that the state has passed parts of the responsibility for the municipal and regional development to the cities themselves.

This calls for new structures for competition, cooperation and development when the cities must handle the economic and social development to a much larger extent4.

The green transition of the citiesA well-functioning city is also a city that manages to adapt to possibilities and changes in the global knowledge economy and whose performance builds on continuous competition advantages. this means that the growth strategies for cities must be long-term and take into consideration the development in the global knowledge economy.

1. See e.g. Van den Berg & Van Winden. (2004). Cities in the knowledge economy. Report to the Ministry of the Interior and Kingdom Relations; OECD. (2001). Cities and Regions in the New Learning Economy; OECD. (2006). Competitive Cities in the Global Economy.

2. Hansen, H. K. & Winther, L. (2010a) The spatial division of talent in city regions: location dynamics of business services in Copenhagen, Tijdschrift voor Economische en Sociale Geografie, 101: 55–72.

3. Andersen & Winther, 2010; Hansen, H.K. & Winther, L. (2012a) The Urban Turn: Cities, talent and knowledge in Denmark. Aarhus: Aarhus University Press.

4. Andersen, H.T., Samson, J. & Winther, L. (2010) Kunsten at sælge et sted – stedsidentitet og branding, Samfundsøkonomen, december 2010(6): 28–32.

5. Andersen, H.T. & Winther, L. (2010) Crisis in the Resurgent City? The Rise of Copenhagen, International Journal of Urban and Regional Re-search, 34(3): 693–700.


It is well-documented that the present way that humans live is not sustainable in consideration of the pressure it puts on the resources of the earth (read more about this in chapter 5). The urgent problem combined with the rising autonomy of the cities can be viewed as a unique opportunity for the cities to take the forefront and create the green city of the future. The city as a rising force can amongst other places be seen in the creation of the city cooperation C40.

The challenge is tangible. There are many parameters at stake and while the cities can influence some of them others are less susceptible to influence. But the cities do undoubtedly have a historic opening for taking the challenge and strategically reform the cities in terms of both infrastructure, business environment and amenity value for the citizens.

Here political decisions and the implementation of these play a considerable part since the change towards a society independent of fossil fuels requires public regulation. Basically because ’the market’ is not on its own accord capable of pricing the value of lasting climate changed, increased security of supply etc.

Here, the green transition can be the key to the cities being able to create new jobs when investments are made in new infrastructure and to support new competitive industries. For instance the German government has estimated that the global green tech markets look to be more than doubled to 4,400 billion Euros in 2025.

A green transition has many positive aspects for the cities. Apart from a green energy supply this also includes attracting new knowledge intensive industries, cleaner air, green areas and other amenity values.

In order to realise such a strategy, brave, long-term political decisions are needed for the cities. Brave because in some areas they will break away from traditional approaches and methods. Long-term because the change is long-term and permanent.

It is this green, long-term growth strategy and change the developed scenarios in this project are meant to support.

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”Scenarios are memories from the future”

– David Ingvar

The neurophysiologist David Ingvar believed that as soon as we thought of a future world, memory tracks were created in the brain. So if the imagined future was to happen we would “remember” as we had previously experienced it in reality exactly like it is with real events.

Scenarios work exactly like that. They create notions of future incidents by us “remembering” them. When they happen we understand what is wanted from us and we can act appropriately. Thereby scenarios become a fundamental tool.

2.1 SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT AS A METHODThe purpose of scenarios is not to predict the future but to examine possible developments in order to help decision-makers in the planning of what today may seem “unthinkable”. Future scenarios are about identifying present developments and find out what they mean to our society. The scenarios are an important part of the foundation for discussions and innovation in our modern society. Thereby scenarios give us the possibility to move strategic discussions away from an immediate and present focus to a more distant future and a focus on the larger perspectives.

The scenarios in DK2050 comprise different stories about futures that may be and which in a thought-provoking way throws new light on the strategic decisions we are facing. Every scenario shows a window of possibilities for what might happen and the scenarios are good if they provoke the reader to think productively and in a new way about the challenges that have to be faced in a near future. Here the scenarios offer a common language and a

common starting point for a discussion of the possibilities and challenges of the future.

In order to make the green transition of Danish society possible several experts have pointed to the necessity of long-term strategies (i.e. the Climate Commission, 2011). This makes scenarios a well-chosen method that contribute with knowledge to the strategic work of the decision-makers when we look closer at the green transition in the cities and Denmark.

The four scenarios in this publication comprise different portraits of a possible future world. The scenarios are meant to be a starting point for discussions and at the same time it is up to the individual reader or organisation to decide which scenario provides an attractive future for Denmark to live in. The scenarios have not been written with the thought to make ’good’ or ’less good’ scenarios for Denmark’s future. That depends on your preferences.

2.2 TRENDS AND UNCERTAINTIESWe divide the world into three parts: the surrounding world, the nearby world and the inside world, as illustrated in figure 2.1.

The transitions – trends and uncertainties – that are the most important can be found in the surrounding world. We are talking about long-term changes that we have no impact on but that we have to respond to. Some of these can be estimated to be certain in the sense that we can say with great certainty how they will develop until 2050. Examples of this are the the world’s population extrapolation, climate changes etc. These ”safe” udviklinger developments we call ”trends”.

Other changes are much harder to predict. These changes until 2050 are estimated to be very uncertain.

2 . The scenario method behind DK2050


This is for instance the case for human values, political organisation, the development of industries etc. These changes we call ”uncertainties” and some of them are of great strategic significance and are estimated to be ”strategic uncertainties”. The scenarios, the images of the future, are comprised of a combination of trends and uncertainties.

The safe trends are deemed safe towards 2050. They comprise the foundation for a future development. For example a warmer climate comprises a safe trend and therefore this trend is present in all scenarios. There may be a difference in the details concerning how much warmer climate the individual scenario represents.

The uncertainties, however, can be developed completely differently in the different scenarios. The chosen strategic uncertainties comprise the foundation for the scenarios. Other uncertainties may develop in different directions depending on how they are related to the strategic uncertainties.

2.3 STRATEGIC UNCERTAINTIESIn this project we have based the scenarios on a ’traditional’ method which involves searching for the most important factors that may impact our problem and from those factors we identify two particularly important ’strategic uncertainties’ on which we have based our scenario matrix. The matrix has been described in literature, see e.g. Heijden (1996) or Lindgren & Bandhold (2009).

The strategic uncertainties are the basis for the scenarios – they shape and control how we interpret possible scenarios towards the future. The challenge in this scenario methodology is to find the most suitable strategic uncertainties. These have to be of great strategic significance for the problem and they must be real uncertainties. Also, the strategic uncertainties must be independent from one another. Naturally there may be several different strategic uncertainties and we have picked the ones that the scenario team estimated were the most important ones.

FIGURE 2.1Surrounding world – nearby world – inside worldSource: Kairos Future 2014

Surrounding world

Nearby world

Inside worldOwn organisation

and questions

Needs

Media Economy & market

Rules

Technology & science

Social & lifestyles

Institutions (structure)

Ecology, environment

& health

PoliticsCitizens

Cooperation partners

SuppliersSubstitute

EU

Distribution

Businesses

AuthoritiesGovernment and

Parliament

19

The chosen strategic uncertainties are presented in axis in a ’scenario cross’ where the endpoints of the axis comprise the extreme possible outcomes of the respective uncertainties. Therefore each scenario comprises a combination of the two extreme outcomes as reflected in the figure below.

FIGURE 2.2Scenario cross

Source: DAMVAD and Kairos Future 2014

The starting point for scenario A in the figure is comprised by the fact that X1 and Y1 happen at the same time while scenario B is based on the combined outcome of X2 and Y1. Scenarios C and D are achieved the same way.

2.4 THE PROBLEMThe main question of the project, which has been decisive in the search for trends, uncertainties and other factors, is:

Which development trends affect the green transition of the Danish municipalities up until 2050?

The question is used as a the common thread throughout the whole project.

2.5 INTERACTIVE, ITERATIVE, QUALITATIVEThe scenario process in this project is built on interaction and participation. By inviting and involving people from several Danish municipalities, regions and ministries we have created a broad starting point for the study of the future and for understanding what really affects the problem.

The scenarios are primarily qualitative but in order to strengthen the story we have added quantitative data indicating the imagined levels in different years in the future. Even though a lot of this data is prognoses it is used here to illustrate the respective scenarios. The scenario in itself is no prognosis

Apart from this we have solid fact and data material showing the positions up until 2014.

The processThrough ”trendspotting” at Camp 0 participants from several Danish municipalities, regions and ministries searched for trends and factors in the surrounding world.

In the scenario team, a smaller analysis group, this material was gathered and analysed. The scenario team identified two strategic uncertainties (see paragraph 5.7) and from this developed a matrix with four scenarios (see paragraph 6).

Our analyses and input from the participants at Camp 0 have contributed to create a list of criteria describing the decisive functions and division lines for each scenario (see paragraph 8). each scenario is based on the content of this criteria list.

For this purpose we have searched statistics and data in different areas such as transport, energy, environment etc.

Scenario B

Uncertainty X Outcome X1

Uncertainty X Outcome X1

Uncertainty Y Outcome Y1

Uncertainty Y Outcome Y2

Scenario C

Scenario A

Scenario D


2.6 THE DEMARCATION OF THE SCENARIOS

Five themes affecting the green future of the citiesA string of factors play a part for the green transition in the cities. It could be anything from new technologies, a change in consumer behaviour, public regulation of resources etc. The spectrum is broad.

When we look towards a Denmark in 2050 it is therefore also improbable to involve all the factors that affect the development of the cities. It is, however, possible to focus on chosen factors that are critical to our transition to a green society which is the purpose of this scenario publication.

Therefore we have focused on five themes whose significance for the green transition in the cities is fundamental and which will be recurring for the report structure. These themes will create the frame for the presentation of each of the four scenarios.

The five themes are:• Citizensandsociety• Energyandclimate• Environment• Businessandeconomy• Transportandmobility

FIGURE 2.3The course of the project

The choice of themes partly builds on the input we got from the participating partners in the project in connection with the camps and workshops and on the basis of the review of national and international literature in the field (see Literature list).

In order to make the themes concrete, in the following we will describe in short in which criteria each theme takes its starting point.

Citizens and societyGreen lifestyle and preferencesOur future (green) behaviour has great signifi-cance for the design of the cities. Our lifestyle and preferences can for the most part of the population become a pronounced focus or it can be pushed to the background by other preferences.

Construction for housing and businessesBuildings are long-term investments that stand for many years and have great influence on our energy consumption. Thus, extensive renovation of existing buildings and the construction of new buildings has extensive consequences on how our cities become energy efficient and how they appear aesthetically.

Camp 0Identification

of trends

Processing analysis & report

Processing analysis & report

Camp 1Mayoral debate

Camp 2Expert input

Data collection, interviews, scenario

drafts

21

Energy and climateEnergy supplyIn order to undertake a green transition of the cities towards 2050, marked changes in our energy supply must take place. The energy supply may be structured in a spectrum from central large-scale solutions to fragmented solutions.

Renewable energyThe share of renewable energy in our energy supply is naturally a decisive parameter for whether the green transitions of the cities will prove a success towards 2050.

EnvironmentWaste/resourcesOur ability to utilise waste and recycle our resources are central in a world with a growing population and limited resources. Here the cities play an important role since the majority of the population will live in cities in 2050.

Business and economyBusiness structureThe business community plays an important role for the green transition since this is where the most considerable part of the CO2 emissions come from.

Business localisationThe localisation of the business community is closely connected to the localisation of the work force.

Green economyThe transition to an economy driven by green services and products is fundamental for a green transition becoming a reality. The cities can impact this in many parameters, for instance through purchase policies and regulations.

Traffic and mobilityCollective vs. individualOur transport systems have great impact on the mobility of the citizens and thereby also on the job market and where people live. Cross-national vs. regional/localIt has great significance whether the infrastructure is planned with cross-national solutions or more regionally and locally.

City typologiesDanish cities have different prerequisites for their development towards 2050. Therefore it is vital that we differentiate between different types of cities when we look ahead.

There is no harmonised definition of a city but a lot of analyses have been made in the last few years focusing on what characterises a city or city area/city region which we prefer to call it here.

In connection with The City Regions Project from 2011 drawn up by DAMVAD, a city region was defined as the total city area comprised by a centre municipality and the surrounding area around the city. The analysis operates with the concept of functional city regions because they, as opposed to administrative municipal borders, draw up a more precise image of a city. The functional city region is where growth is created. In this context, administrative borders lose their significance.

OECD has worked to develop a general definition and method of calculation when it comes to city regions. OECD views two cities as attached if more than 15% of the population in one city commutes to another city, including towns from the surrounding area being attached to the centre city.


Here, city regions are city areas with less than 200,000 inhabitants. This means that a large proportion of the Danish city areas fall outside of OECD’s definition.

Danish city regions can also be demarcated in relation to commuting time to and from the main city. Here a city region is defined by up to one hour of commuting time. Reports on a national basis have often used commuting time as a central factor in the physical planning. Reports on commuting flows have amongst other things been a part of creating what we today call “the Eastern Jutland city stretch”.

The networks of European Metropolitan Regions and Areas (METREX) has set up the following characteristics for city regions:

• Largeconcentrationofworkforce, businesses and institutions

• Aconcentrationofknowledgeintensive businesses, research and educational institutions

• Networksandclustersbetween specialised businesses

• Agrowingcriticalmassdrivingjob opportunities, professional and social inclusion and a higher standard of living

• Investmentinsoftlocalisationconditions such as culture and quality of life

In England they have a well-developed focus on functional city regions such as these, including their interaction with the surrounding area. In 2012 centre for cities mapped 31 capitals and 124 other large cities in Europe to show the significance of cities.

The conclusion of the analysis is that decentralisation and spreading together with a strong group of larger cities in a country can contribute to create strong economic growth. This means that there must be a balance between investment in capitals and a country’s larger cities and that there should be a possibility to link more remote areas to a positive development in order for the whole country to be able to contribute to the economic growth.

In OECD’s publication ”Redefining ’urban’: A New Way to Measure Metropolitan Areas” we only find Copenhagen, Aarhus, Aalborg and Odense as so-called Danish economic functional city regions characterised by having a densely populated city core and surrounding areas (hinterlands) where the job market is strongly integrated with the city core.

OECD differentiates between four size categories.

1. Small city regions: between 50,000 and 200,000 inhabitants

2. Medium-sized regions: between 200,000 and 500,000 inhabitants

3. Metropole regions: between 500,000 and 1.5 million inhabitants

4. Large metropole regions: with over 1.5 million inhabitants

With a starting point in the above and with respect for a Danish context and geography we have chosen to work with three types of Danish city areas in which the majority of Danish cities can be categorised:

23

The large city regionComprises: The capital (inc. Høje Taastrup), Aarhus, Odense and Aalborg

There are functional city regions characterised by having a densely populated city core and surrounding areas where the job market is strongly integrated with the city core. Large city regions are also characterised by having a large diversity and international links.

Medium-sized city regions/market townsComprises: Sønderborg, Fredericia, Middelfart, Kalundborg, Ringkjøbing-Skjern

These are small city regions with 50,000–200,000 inhabitants. These are often called second-tier cities.

Small city areasSmall Danish towns with less than 50,000 inhabitants.

In the scenarios these three types of cities will be used to mirror the Danish cities as closely as possible.

For each city type in each scenario we look at the degree of growth, green transition ambition and geographical role (significance in the geography).

25

How are things with the green transition in society and the business community and how has the development been up until now? This is important to know in order to understand the starting point for the scenarios for the future development of the cities and the green transition in Denmark.

In the following this starting point for the future is described by first laying out the most important changes in society that since the 1960s have had an impact on for society today and possibilities for green transition. Afterwards we put the development into numbers within the five main themes estimated to be essential in order to understand the green transition in society and which are therefore also recurring for the scenario analysis, namely:

1) Citizens and society2) Energy and climate3) Environment4) Business and economy5) Transport and mobility

The starting point for the futureWhich starting point does that give for the future then? Where do we stand today with the development that has happened up until now? With all the respect for the big books being written about the society of today you have to be careful commenting on the politics performed today, and since this is merely a scenrário project we will only, in short, lay out where we believe the society and green transition of today is overall and in connection with the two axes defining the scenarios. With this the reader can then make up his or her own mind and read the following scenario descriptions in this picture.

The historical events, actions and reforms make up a picture of Denmark as a country operating with often very ambitious goals and plans combined with a more liberal bottom-up approach to how to reach those goals. Danish politicians have a historical ability to decide on large reforms and initiatives of significance for city development and green transition no matter whether it concerns infrastructure, energy systems, educational reforms, business initiatives etc. This historical ability to support the green technological development has generally also been high in Denmark throughout recent decades. In several of our neighbouring countries, which are characterised by greater decision inertia, they admire this collective ability to make bigger decisions.

However, in Denmark as well, there are historically several examples that even large political decisions across the political spectrum are changed when a new government comes into power and that determination only becomes really powerful when there is truly a negative development or crisis demanding action. However, Danish economy is also, as opposed to our neighbouring countries, characterised by a steeper decline or rising growth curves, or crises and ascents, if you prefer. Also, Denmark is historically well-known for a certain degree of uprising from below, e.g. with the first large windmill built by Tvind and Christiania as the best-known historical “Green guerilla” initiative. For these reasons we place ’Denmark in the year 2014’ as shown on the next page.

3 . Denmark then and now – the starting point for the future


3.1 THE STORY ABOUT THE GREEN TRANSITIONIn analysing the different development roads of the future it can be interesting to look back on the development that came before the society we have today. What large events, reforms and societal changes helped shape the solutions and behaviour we see today?

When looking back you will see that 35 years, which is the perspective of this scenario project, is both a very long and a very short time. It is a long time in the light of the technological changes and globalisation etc, that we have experienced in the last 35 years and up until today. But is is a short time when you consider the large political and institutional conditions influencing society. When you look at them you find out that many of the structures and institutions shaping the framework in which we can act today were created more than 35 years ago.

Below we have briefly drawn up the most important changes with a significance for today’s society and the possibilities for a green transition. We begin in the 60s.

1960s: modern times on their way ü Continued expansion of the capital area

and motorway extension building on the so-called ’finger plan’ from 1947

ü Workers move from the cities to the suburbs ü Entry of the detached house and

suburban life ü Markedly increased job frequency (women) ü Social housing appears ü Long-term planning begins with National ü Comprehensive Plan Committee and the

Zone Plan ü Territorial division of the North Sea 1965 ü Monopoly/sole concession is given for

researching and extraction of hydrocarbon in the Danish underground in 1962

ü Awareness of the environmental question is rising because of Rachel Carson’s book “Silent Spring” from 1962

1970s: modern society is established ü Denmark established the first Ministry for

the Environment in the world (1971) ü First international climate conference

(Stockholm 1972) ü Cooperative housing becomes popular

since tenants get the opportunity to buy their property and organise a social residential community

ü Decision to electrify DSB’s main routes ü Area planning and conflict of interests

between city and countryside are proven in the country planning

ü Perspective plan 1 and 2 about the development of the public sector

ü Energy crises in 1973 and 1978 make up a new agenda

ü From full employment to high unemployment in a few years creates new and growing social problems in the large cities

ü Copenhagen and other cities have to take a loan abroad

ü Private construction stagnates – the primary construction is social housing





GREEN STATE

GREEN COMPROMISES

GREEN GUERILLA

GREEN NETWORKSDK 2014

27

ü First comprehensive energy plan in Denmark (1976)

ü The Heat Supply Act and obligatory connection (1979)

ü Decision on the natural gas net (1979) ü The municipal reform – 275 new

municipalities and 14 counties ü Last streetcar runs in Copenhagen

1980s: new kinds of balancing acts

ü Support for building private cooperative housing in the shape of high density/ low-rise housing

ü The natural gas net is opened ü Ban on electric heat in new buildings ü Decision on no to nuclear power ü The report of the Brundtland Commission

(1987) – the concept of ’sustainable development’ is born

ü The ’Energy 2000’ plan about reduction of the energy consumption and CO2 emissions

ü The first Danish electric car – “The Ellert” ü A decision on a fixed link over

The Great Belt ü Uprising in Eastern Europe ü Gigantic deficits in Copenhagen as a

result of large social expenditure ü ’The Capital – what do we want with it?’

Report from an initiative group set up by the Schlüter government about the Copenhagen Region. Creates an alliance between Copenhagen Municipality and the state and starts a long row of decisions about public investments in Copenhagen (1989)

1990s: the golden age of the province ü Big urban renewal projects in larger cities ü Restoring Copenhagen: it is decided that

the state should invest in Copenhagen airports, the Øresund bridge, culture and educational institutions and Ørestad

ü All of the railways of Greater Copenhagen are electrified

ü Rules of country planning are introduced ü International climate conference in

Rio de Janeiro (1992) ü The Kyoto Agreement and ’Agenda 21’ ü Ban on electrical heating in existing

housing (1994) ü Heavy extension of wind energy in Denmark ü Political agreement on extending combined

heat and power, natural gas, biomass etc. ü Environment and Society – the first status

of Denmark’s environmental state ü ’The Big H’ completed with the opening of

The Great Belt fixed link (1997/1998) ü Decision made on a metro in Copenhagen ü Internet and E-mail spreading

2000s: increasing imbalances ü Decentral regulatory framework for

combined heat and power is improved (2002)

ü New climate strategies in 2000 and 2003 ü The government stops the quota system ü Danish quota system for CO2 is replaced

by a European one in 2005 ü Residential patterns thin out remote

rural areas ü Widespread city growth around the largest

cities in the country ü Residence price bubble bursts ü Economic ascent and descent with crisis ü Electrification of the main net is given up

and the focus goes to diesel operations and IC4 trains are purchased

ü The structural reform leads to 94 new municipalities and 5 regions

ü Country planning is significantly strengthened with the structural reform

ü National comprehensive plan directive: ’Finger plan 2007’

ü The Eastern Jutland city stretch takes shape ü The North Sea agreement (2003) ü Decision on a fixed Femern link (2008) ü Decision on a metro city ring (2008) ü First A bus in Copenhagen (2002)


ü Cooperation between Better Place and DONG about introduction of electric cars in Denmark

ü Low-price airline companies conquer large market shares

ü Digitalisation is used for energy optimisation ü Attempts to reach a global climate

agreement fail ü A visionary Danish energy policy up until

2025 is formulated (2007) ü Increased focus on energy efficiency in

building (particularly insulation) ü The university reform concentrates

institutions in the larger cities ü The establishment of technical colleges

concentrates institutions in regional centres ü Raised transport contribution in remoter

municipalities ü Global financial crisis begins after the

bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers (2008) 2010s: large city areas set the pace

ü Continued economic crisis and slow recovery

ü The move towards the city is intensified ü New building political strategy ü Liberalisation of the Shopping Hours Law ü Internet trade grows dramatically ü Togfonden DK – electrification and ’time

model’ between the largest cities ü National parks appointed ü Electric buses in the city circle in

Copenhagen ü Larger experiment with electrical buses in

Copenhagen begun 2014 ü Cars have become dramatically more

energy efficient ü Electric/hybrid cars have not yet had

their breakthrough ü EU’s binding climate goals awaiting global

agreements ü Political agreement on energy politics

leading up to 2020

3.2 THE DEVELOPMENT IN NUMBERS – THEN, NOW AND IN THE FUTUREIn 2050, according to the prognoses we are 500,000 more inhabitants in Denmark. Urbanisation has made the large cities grow markedly and the age distribution has moved upwards. If this development continues we will also commute more. But what is the starting point for this development? In the following we put the development up until today into numbers and we present prognoses for the development of the future within the main themes and together they give us a starting point in numbers to help us understand Denmark’s future green transition.

1) Citizens and society2) Energy and climate3) Environment4) Business and economy5) Transport and mobility

Citizens and societyIn Denmark in 2014 we count over 5.6 million Danes which is almost half a million more than 30 years ago. This trend is expected to continue so we will get to 6 million Danes in 2036.

There are becoming more Danes but if we look at the rate of increase in population globally the picture is even clearer. Globally it is expected that in 2050 we will be 9 billion people against 6.1 billion in 2014. 75% of them will live in urban areas against ’only’ 50% today.

In a green transition perspective this rise makes great demands on how we use the limited resources of the Earth in the future and how we develop our cities.

Strong urbanisationIn the urbanisation of Denmark for the past 30 years, the rate of increase in population

29

has particularly concentrated around Eastern Jutland and the capital area while Aarhus and Odense have also experienced a dramatic growth of citizens in the period. This can be seen in figure 3.1 where the development is distributed on the map of Denmark.

Urbanisation is a local trend that is expected to continue. This puts both the larger cities under pressure to be able to receive the many new citizens while areas that are depopulated must handle this development.

The population development of the large citiesUrbanisation, which usually takes place towards the larger cities is not unequivocal however. If we look slightly outside of the Danish borders and compare the population growth in Denmark’s two largest cities with larger cities close to Denmark, the fluctuations in the prognoses are obvious.

In figure 3.2 we have juxtaposed the expected population development for the Capital Area,

Eastern Jutland, Hamburg, Stockholm, Oslo and Amsterdam. In index form the figure shows that the population growth for for the Capital Area, Stockholm and Oslo will be dramatic while Eastern Jutland and Amsterdam will also experience a certain population growth up towards 2040. In contrast to this the prognoses show a very limited population growth for Hamburg.

The population is getting olderApart from the growth in the number of people and the urbanisation another important character trait in the population development is the ageing of the average Dane.

Today, the average age of a Dane is approximately 40.7 years old. That average is expected to rise around 2 years towards 2025 to 42.6 years and to 43.4 years in 2040. This may not sound like a lot but the development will first and foremost happen by many more becoming much older than they do today. This is evident in figure 3.3.

FIGURE 3.1The population development in Denmark from 1986 to 1999 (left) and from 1999 to 2012 (right)

Source: DAMVAD 2014 based on Statistics Denmark. Note: The transparent population development in the first period was 4 pct. and in the second period 5.1 pct.

Signature explanation

Change in pct.

Signature explanation

Change in pct.


FIGURE 3.2Population development in selected cities 2015–2040, index 2015=100 Source: DAMVAD 2014 based on Statistics Denmark, Stockholm Låns Landsting, Stastistisk sentralbyrå (Norge), Planbureau voor de Leefomgeving (Holland)

FIGURE 3.3Development in age groups 1980–2040

Source: DAMVAD and Statistics Denmark’s population projection 2013 Note: 0–17 and 65+ years old on left axis, 18–64 years old on right axis

FIGURE 3.4Development in the share of 20–64 year olds in selected cities, index 2014=100

Source: DAMVAD 2014 based on Statistics Denmark, Stockholm Låns Landsting, Stastistisk sentralbyrå (Norge), Planbureau voor de Leefomgeving (Holland) Note: Data for Hamburg not available

Inde

xIn

dex

Stockholm

Stockholm

0-17 years old 65+ years old 18-64 years old (right axis)

Year

1.000 people 1.000 people

Amsterdam

Amsterdam

Capital Area

Capital Area

Eastern Jutland

Oslo

Oslo

Hamburg

Eastern Jutland

31

This dramatic change in the composition of the population will make great demands on how we in the welfare state take into consideration this rising number of old people.

The ageing population is a characteristic that goes across city regions in and around Denmark, which can be seen by the share of 20–64 year olds falling towards 2040. This can be seen in figure 3.4. Amsterdam is the city region where the share of 20–64 year olds is expected to fall the most while Eastern Jutland is the region where the lowest fall is expected.

Energy and climateOne of the biggest threats against the continued development of human society is the rise in greenhouse gases (including CO2) in the atmosphere. The production of energy based on fossil fuels is a large source of CO2 emissions and therefore it is increasingly attempted to utilise sustainable alternatives. The Danish government has set a goal that Denmark should be independent of fossil fuels in 2050. Here we briefly take stock of the Danish energy production.

Denmark’s energy productionThe share of Denmark’s energy production can be seen in figure 3.8, that shows that more than 15% of the Danish energy production is based on renewable energy sources while more than 80 pct. of the energy production is based on fossil fuels in the shape of oil and natural gas.

FIGURE 3.5The distribution of Denmark’s energy production, 2012

Source: DAMVAD based on Energistatistikken 2012 Note: The overall energy production in 2012 made up 801.232 TJ

Rising share of renewable energy productionThe composition of the energy supply has over time changed towards a larger share of renewable energy in Denmark. Particularly the production of wind energy has risen dramatically since the end of the 80s which can be seen in the figure below.

Rene

wab

le e

nerg

y

Biomass 10.7%

53.6%

27.2%

4.6%

1.1%

0.5%

0.2%

2.1%

0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0%

Wind power

Heat pumps

Biogas

Solar energy

Oil

Natural gas

Waste

Foss

il fu

el

ener

gy


FIGURE 3.6Production of renewable energy in Denmark 1980–20121980 – 2012 (PJ)

Source: Energistatistikken 2012

Economic considerations about energyCollective energy supply is an advantage when homes or businesses are close together. In densely built areas in Denmark, we have built up a supply based on collectivity. This can be seen as a kind of lock-in investment and therefore it will, other things being equal, be connected to extra expenses and losses if the supply in the future is to be more individually based. There will be some who invest in individual supply first which will increase the fixed costs for the others connected to the collective supply. This will create the incentive for more to switch to individual supply which again will increase the fixed costs for the rest until there is no-one left connected to the collective supply.

A further challenge is that even with individual supply there may be a need to tap into a

collective net in periods when the individual solution does not cover adequately enough.

EnvironmentIt is well-documented that the population of the Earth as a whole exerts a pressure on global resources which is not sustainable. We eat away at the planet’s resources faster than they can be reproduced.

Therefore the big question in the 21st century is how we can keep our standard of living within the resources that our planet makes available. You could say that dramatic steps must be taken when it comes to reducing air pollution and resource consumption as well as securing biological diversity if we want to still be able to draw on the Earth’s resources in the future.

The global imprint is risingPopularly speaking, today we use the equivalent of 1½ planets5 a year in relation to the resources we use and the waste we produce. In other words it takes earth one year and six months to regenerate what the population of the Earth uses in one year. In 1961 the number was 0.7 of a planet and if we look towards 2050 in a business as usual projection it is expected that we use the equivalent of three times the Earth’s resources every year.

The Danish imprint is pronouncedWhere energy production tells one side of the story our consumption tells the other side. It has been calculated that every Dane emits around 19 tons of CO2 every year incl. imported consumption. If for example the 2 degree goal is to be met, in 2050 we have to reduce our consumption by 80–95% in relation to the consumption in 1990. If we increase our efficiency, however, there is no direct numerical correlation between consumption and emissions!

Wind power

Wood

Waste, biodegradable

Straw

Biogas

Other

50.0

45.0

40.0

35.0

30.0

25.0

20.0

15.0

10.0

5.0

0.0

33

FIGURE 3.7The Danish energy consumption distributed in usage areas

Source: Danish Energy Agency’s energy statistics, 2012

If we delve deeper into the Danish energy consumption it can be shared out across main sectors. This shows that the transport sector has the majority of the energy consumption, which in 2012 was over 200 PJ closely followed by households.

Economic considerations about carbon-neutrality and fossil fuel free societyThe expenses in a transition to a carbon-neutral society very much depends in the development – partly the price of fossil fuels and partly how quickly new technologies become ready for the market and are launched. Therefore, there is also a broad span between the lowest and highest estimates about expenses.

In Denmark additional costs by having a fossil fuel free energy supply is estimated to be 6–29 billion DKK annually in 2050 (Danish energy agency, 2014). Here more than half the costs will be in the transport sector. In relation to the

scenarios the Danish energy agency has set up with wind, biomass, bio+ and hydrogen, the fossil fuel solution will be the cheapest. This with a CO2 price of 245 DKK/hour.

However, there will be a string of gains to be derived from going from fossil fuels to fossil fuel free, e.g. in the shape of reduced emission of nitrogen, SO2, NOX and particles as well as improved biodiversity. Also, there may be derived effects by switching to fossil fuel free transport.

Europe’s long-term scenario towards a low emission society in 2050 can be compared to the Green networks scenario with approx. 80% CO2 reduction in relation to 1990. Here it is expected that the transition to a low emission society will boost european economy as a result of increased innovation and low or zero emission energy.

FIGURE 3.8Expenses at different scenarios

Source: Danish Energy Agency (2014): Energy scenarios through to 2020, 2035 and 2050

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The EU estimates that is takes an extra €270 billion (1.5% of GDP) investment annually, on average, for the next four decades to reach that objective. Further, the EU estimates that it will create up to 1.5 mill. extra jobs as soon as 2020 if national governments use income from CO2 taxes and auctioning of CO2 quotas for investments in the sector. If more energy was produced sustainably and locally in the EU it will make the EU less dependent on amongst other things import of oil and thereby also increase security of supply, on which there is great focus at the moment. The plan estimates that the EU on average can save €175–320 bio. annually in fuel expenses over the next 40 years.

When it comes to cleaner air there will also be great opportunities to save money: if cleaner technologies and electrical cars gain ground and are used more widely air pollution will be reduced drastically in European cities. This will lead to fewer people suffering from e.g. asthma and fewer resources having to be spent on healthcare and the control of air pollution. In 2050 the EU can save up to €88 bio. annually in these areas (EU: low carbon roadmap 2050 (2011)).

For the scenarios aimed at a CO2 reduction there are more ambitious ones than in our neighbouring countries and/or the rest of Europe and this risks becoming more costly since in these countries other circumstances will be applicable, which can complicate the development in Denmark. For example when it comes to holding on to the competitiveness of the business community and Danish workplaces when the conditions in the short term are expected to worsen in comparison to other countries.

Business and economyThe key challenge in the green transition is to make it go hand in hand with economic growth.

Historically it has not been possible internationally to lower CO2 emissions parallel to the economy growing. However, in Denmark we have succeeded in doing this anyway, see figure 3.9.

Thus, since 1980 the energy intensity (energy level per GDP) has been declining. Globally it has been somewhat more difficult to be as successful as Denmark since there is a rising

Source: Danish Energy Agency’s energy statistics 2012, Statistics Denmark

FIGURE 3.9Development in Denmark’s energy consumption, GDP and energy intensity since 1980

Gross domestic product

Gross energy consumption – rectified

Energy intensity/energy consumption (GDP)

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demand in the economies that are still in the development stage. Combined with the expected global population growth it will be even harder in the coming years since it will require massive energy consumption unless more resource efficient production types become normal or a greener energy production becomes reality.

The green Danish economyIn Denmark we have a large number of businesses delivering “green” products and services. They comprise the businesses of the future which are key to the green transition. The green trade in Denmark was more than 250 bil. DKK in 2010, the equivalent of 9.2% of Danish businesses’ total turnover, and in 2010 green products were exported for over 80 bil. DKK, the equivalent of 10.4% of the total Danish export, and so today is already today an important part of the Danish business structure.

Green production can be found in almost all industries and the business spans over a wide spectrum of goods from solar cell systems, particle filters and sewage treatment to consultancy within environment and climate.

Transport and mobilityThe energy consumption in the transport sector comprises a third of Denmark’s energy consumption, mostly due to fossil fuel. At the same time transport constitutes our mobility and has great significance on both business and individuals. The transition of our transport sector is therefore key in relation to a greener society and our mobility.

Today the car is the Danes’ favourite mode of transport, see figure 3.20 where the respective shares of the forms of transport have been calculated.

FIGURE 3.10Form of transport, market shares, minutes per person per day

Source: DTU Transport, 2013

While emissions has decreased in many sectors, in the field of transport it has risen 31% since 1990 and is still on the rise. Therefore, there is a great challenge in turning this curve while the mobility is not impaired. This is particularly important in the light of the urbanisation which gives serious challenges for mobility in the cities.

Min

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Car driver BicycleCar passenger

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4.1 WORKING WITH TRENDS AND UNCERTAINTIESIn connection with the three camps with the participation of up to 150 representatives from municipalities, regions and state authorities as well as funds, organisations and businesses a number of trends relevant to society have been identified. These have been subject to more thorough analyses, tests, gradation and descriptions in the scenario team and have been the subject of discussion in an expert panel. On the basis of this, the identified trends have been supplemented and adjusted or rejected.

The result is a list with respectively safe trends that affect all scenarios in a similar way and a list with uncertainties that have significance for the specific development ways in each scenarioBelow we explain the most important safe trends and uncertainties of significance for the scenarios. To explain all the factors affecting Denmark’s cities and their green transition towards 2050 is not possible. The trends are driven by very comprehensive and long-term changes such as globalisation, technological development and demographic changes.

4.2 TRENDS – SAFE DEVELOPMENTS

Denmark is internationalisedThe power balance of the world has in all probability changed radically with the emergence of a new global middle class. Goldman Sachs predicts that China’s GDP will be double the USA’s in 2050. It is in the previous “third world” that we find the consumers and the demand of the future and all countries and businesses will compete to reach these markets. This creates a pressure of globalisation on Denmark and other Western economies. The dependency on our surrounding world – particularly Asia – will grow concurrently with the rise of international trade and economies are integrated.

Furthermore there will be a parallel revolution in the field of information technology and we have only seen the beginning.

Today a third of the world’s population have access to internet6 and the number is rising fast. If it continues at the same pace the whole world will be online in 2050. The exchange of information is rising and communication across borders is thereby rendered more effective which then points to the significance of country borders will be reduced.7

Internationalisation is not least applicable to businesses that increasingly operate in other countries. This creates a more open job market where Denmark, to a larger degree, will need expert knowledge from abroad and where Danes to a larger extent will seek abroad.

Main driving forces: globalisation, technology development, demographic changes

Denmark is urbanisedFor the first time, only a couple of years ago, we passed the point where more people globally live in cities. The UN predicts a strong urbanisation, particularly in lesser developed parts of the world towards 2050, which is strongly connected to the growth of the new global middle class.

But even in the Western world the UN thinks that the urbanisation will continue. However this has slightly different causes than for example China where people move from a poor life as peasants and to the factories in the city.

In the knowledge economy, human capital and creativity are the key to innovation and thereby to growth. In order to be innovative and thereby competitive, businesses must cooperate with

4 . Trends and strategic uncertainties

6 http://www.internetworldstats.com/stats.htm6 http://esa.un.org/unup/pdf/WUP2011_Highlights.pdf

knowledge institutions and have access to well-educated employees who are often found in the large cities. Well-educated people localise themselves according to career opportunities. Regions around the larger cities – regions with strong institutions – have a great competition advantage here. The large cities also have a larger critical mass to make use of digitalisation and IT, gain resource optimisation and become smart cities. This attracts the well-educated, creative and innovative businesses and those working within the businesses.

How the urbanisation will look is not obvious. Factors that can counteract urbanisation are less building of homes, a more decentralised production as a result of for instance 3D printing and successful specialisations outside the larger cities. Even though there are examples of large cities with very large problems (e.g. Detroit) they are, however, considerably fewer than the large cities that grow and thrive.

Main driving forces: technological development, globalisation and demographic changes

Ageing populationLike the populations in the rest of the Western world, the Danish population is ageing. The average lifespan is increased as a result of reduced immigration, lower birth numbers, better living conditions and medical progress. The share of the population at the age 65+ will rise dramatically in Denmark in the coming years.

The family responsibility is increased with a higher proportion of elderly and a smaller proportion of working age people. Fewer youngsters have to provide for a rising number of elderly which makes a greater demand for greater efficiency and possibly a higher retirement age.

Main driving forces: demographic changes

DigitalisationDigitalisation means that, to a large degree, the world is translated into digital terms and that we live a still larger part of our lives where digital technologies are everywhere. ”Everything that can be digitalised will be digitalised” (Normann, R. 2001).

The business landscape will be rewritten when large amounts of information can be moved and processed in a short time. The internet and the platforms we use daily to gain the advantages of digital information become the medium from which the creation and services spring. The development leads to hyper efficient so-called ”smart cities”, mainly in the large cities. When everything is linked up – the Internet of Things – there are no longer any limits to how ”smart cities” or businesses can be or look like. But it also leads to human integrity being threatened when everyone can track data about everything.

Main driving forces: technological development

Climate changes Climate questions and the environmental problems of the world have come more into focus in the last decades. The scientific society agrees that climate changes happen as a result of human activity. Economic production leaves sizeable tracks in the shape of emissions and the more conventional growth in the world there is, the larger the climate imprint.

With an increased temperature the sea level at the coasts will rise gradually and there will be heavier winds and floods. In order to meet the challenge of an increased global temperature it will probably require less emission of greenhouse gases, an ecologically durable production of foodstuff and that energy is produced in a sustainable way. A fundamental requirement for meeting the climate challenge


is therefore not least a green technological development.

Main driving forces: globalisation, demographic changes

Green technological developmentTechnological development is the cornerstone in green transition for the cities. While existing technologies are developed and improved there is an innovative technological development that can affect the green transition greatly. Radical technological developments within energy technology will towards 2050 affect how energy is produced and consumed and has the potential to radically change the way in which we view energy as a resource.

For instance, new technology can make energy a resource produced locally, for instance on an individual or household level. With the smart grid technology houses can be both consumers and producers of energy. New green energy resources are developed that can be mass produced after the same model as the fossil fuels of today and distributed to where it is needed. An example of this could be large solar power plants.

Main driving forces: globalisation, technological development

Co-CreationRelationships changing towards being more personal and less formal and together with new technological possibilities create co-creation. This implies that preferences for sharing and co-ownership are increased. The wish to cooperate broadly and share knowledge and resources becomes widespread, e.g. through crowdfunding, crowdsourcing and collaborative consumption.

New ”crowd” solutions are strongly driven forward by both economic and environmental and resource saving logic. For the green transition crowd innovation can be something that both contributes to development and engagement in the broader population.

Main driving forces: technological development, globalisation

In the following we describe more detailed the uncertainties that have arisen from the scenario process.

4.3 UNCERTAINTIES

Will collective or individual values dominate?Since the 1970s the Nordic countries have changed from having collective and traditional values toward more individual, postmodern values (see e.g. World Values Survey). This has also meant that the diversity had grown and that the division of powers in society has changed. For instance, women have gained more power and influence in both public (political) connections and in business. Instead of group identities and traditions setting the boundaries for humans, individuals have, to a larger extent, been able to shape and organise their own lives.

It is possible that individualisation has now reached a maximum and that there will be a combination of collective individual values, a sort of ’Me-We society’ where one shields one’s own freedom and self-determination but also responds to the common good. Both World Values Survey and Kairos Future’s studies point to a more collective foundation in the future.

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In the 2050 perspective it is uncertain to which degree collective or individual values will dominate but the result has dramatic consequences for the societal structure.

What are the Danes’ residential preferences?What individuals or families believe is a good life is not static. There is a big difference both between cultures, social layers and over time. Residential preferences change and vary too. There are great differences between whether people want to live centrally, near work, culture life and much more or whether lots of space, beautiful nature and familiar surroundings are more important.

The residential preferences of the individuals get a much bigger and more independent significance but it is uncertain which preferences will dominate the residential demand in a 2050 perspective.

Political energy or paralysis?Political decisions set the framework for the decisions of all players whether it concerns a regulation of markets, decisions of public taxes and the use of money or the approval of visions/guidelines for how society should develop in the coming years. Even though there is a considerable knowledge about the need to stop climate damaging emissions (particular CO2) in order to avoid continuous global warming, there is no agreement on an actual globally binding agreement on a reduction of climate-damaging emissions.

However, the lack of a global agreement has not stopped many countries and international authorities (EU) from passing national commitments themselves. It is also uncertain whether, over time, there is enough will in many

countries to take on the expenses that others do not. Also, other factors such as geopolitical instability (e.g. the Ukraine) can get further and more wide-ranging consequences so the political power to act is directed towards other areas that are prioritised higher

Enough or scarce resources?The population of the world is growing and the use of natural resources is increased simultaneously with new regions creating growth and striving for increased wealth. Increasingly, this leads to many natural resources showing obvious signs of the lack of availability already today – or that they have become markedly more expensive to extract.

Despite new methods such as fracking, it is not certain that resources will rise: ”Peak oil is more relevant than ever” says Kjell Aleklett for instance in an interview in European Energy Review8.

Both the ideological and economical incitements to further a more resource efficient production, energy efficiency, better recycling and smarter consumption are therefore larger than ever. These incitements can lead to the scarcity of resources actually becoming markedly less. For instance waste will be a growing resource which means less incineration and more recycling.

Denmark’s economic prerequisites? It is difficult to speak with certainty about the competitive power of the Danish economy towards 2050. In the last year we have seen a trend that the Danish economy is growing slower than the economies of others countries.

8 Se http://www.europeanenergyreview.eu/site/pagina.php?id_mailing=509&id=4257


Growth economies are no longer just the “factories” of the world. They already compete with knowledge economies such as Denmark and will continue to do so in the future.

The entire global economy can become fundamentally different moving towards 2050. Asia will go from factory to development laboratory and large parts of Africa can combine the availability of raw material with processing businesses. The opportunities and threats for Denmark are more numerous and the development is partly dependable on our own decisions.

Therefore, Denmark’s economy may, to a large degree, profit from the economic development in the new countries in the shape of increased export opportunities, particularly for green businesses.

More or fewer green businesses and workplaces in Denmark?Danish businesses are exposed to tough global competition and the price for labour is considerably higher in Denmark than in the growth economies. This puts the industry today and in the future under pressure even within the green businesses.

At the same time we can see today that knowledge in green areas in Denmark creates still more workplaces with a growing export of green solutions. Green businesses become more productive and there are generally more skilled workers in green businesses than in other businesses.

Here the uncertainty concerns how far the green transition is carried out in Denmark and how quickly Danish businesses profit from this development. Businesses can drive the

development and cooperate with the political development. Otherwise they can lag behind and lose advantages.

4.4 STRATEGIC UNCERTAINTIESScenarios are based on uncertainties. We do not know how the future will look but we can create possible future scenarios. Some of the six uncertainties we have described above are key for describing the possibilities for a green transition in Denmark towards 2050.

The two axis indicating the scenarios have emerged by combining the most important and critical uncertainties for the green transitions of the cities.

The focus is to which degree there is interaction between the green technological development and the political power to act and whether society is marked by individual or collective values and lifestyle.

The development of the interaction between politics and technology also has a fundamental effect on the green transition. Without a strong technological development it will be hard to ensure a green transition just like it will be hard without political will and control. But it is not simply about technology or politics but about the interaction between the two. Here we can have hopes of the development but we cannot know how things will turn out – the development is uncertain.

Strategic uncertainty

– a development (change) in society that is very uncertain and which is of strategic significance for the question.

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These two uncertainties are independent of each other. In the following we will delve further into the two strategic uncertainties.

Strategic uncertainty 1 – Domineering values and lifestyles in Denmark 2050What characterises people’s lifestyles? What are the dominating value patterns? Scandinavia, including Denmark, has had a strong development towards increased individualisation in recent decades. This is, however, not a development that is taken for granted. We also see more signs pointing to more collective values becoming more important – many young people, for example, think that individualisation has gone too far (Global Youth, Kairos Future 2013). Therefore we can imagine two domineering values and lifestyles in Denmark in 2050: either reinforced individualisation or a development going towards more collective and shared (mutual) values.

Below are the overall lines for a society with respectively individual or collective values in 2050 laid out.

Individual values and lifestyles – 2050 In 2050 people have become still more individually-orientated. They have a strong will to be able to influence their own daily lives and therefore find it hard to observe the common overall principles.

The development of society happens from below – bottom-up – where (new) products and services are adapted to individual needs. There is room for great variety and diversity in lifestyles. There is a tolerance for different types of behaviour but also for social inequality.

Flexible communities are the norm that you select or deselect according to changing needs with obvious shifts from tribalisation, not least via virtual communities that support selective choices. We see the growth of individualisation of public and private services. Small businesses have a considerable chance to influence the development.

Collective values and lifestyles – 2050 In 2050 the previous strong individual values have been replaced by more community-orientated values. When the Millennium generation grew up they saw that it is necessary to solve the big society problems together. They started building a community again – like in the 1950s and 60s.

People’s lifestyles are based on a top-down approach with a belief that common solutions can be created. Products and services are developed to suit the majority which also results in few and domineering technologies making headway.

Uniform public and private services are developed for all with a continuous loyalty to the community. Public authorities get great opportunities to influence the development.

Strategic uncertainties 2 – Interaction between politics and green technologyThe green technological development will continue towards 2050. The question is to what degree the green technology can be implemented and used in society as a result of politics with more will to act related to the green transition.

In the end the issue is whether the interaction between political action and green technology is strong or weak.


Through political initiatives the technological possibilities can be influenced – before they are economically profitable, too (research politics, innovation politics, energy taxes etc.). At the same time technological development of businesses and knowledge institutions influence what possibilities are available politically. It is uncertain whether politics and technological development is capable of creating a synergy and together drive the development towards a green transition or whether they will lack support. They could even end up counteracting one another.

Laid out below are the overall guidelines for a society with respectively weak or strong interaction between politics and green technology in 2050.

Weak interaction between politics and green technology – 2050 Politics and technology are out of step: when the technology has its breakthrough the political backup is lacking. A new green development is developed but the political control does so that the potential is not utilised. There is a lack of political understanding of how the technological solutions can contribute.

There are many technological solutions but the politicians make no active choices as to what solutions should primarily be worked with. Weak interaction between the different players does so that green technology does not work through. The innovation and research politics do not have enough penetration power, amongst other things because not enough funds for developing new technology are allocated.

Strong interaction between politics and green technology –2050 Strong interaction between politics and technology; both work together to drive the

green transition. Political instruments support the introduction of new technology. At the same time there is a strong will in businesses and research institutions to develop a green technology. Research and innovation politics are strong and prioritised politically with large grants and thereby supports the development of green technology. Important climate technologies become very popular.

Politicians are well-informed about technological possibilities and have strong will to take well-informed, long-term technological ventures. A strong cooperation between different players gives green technology a breakthrough. For instance, public-private cooperations are an important driver for good understanding across institutions, private and public.

4.5 FOUR SCENARIOSBased on the two strategic uncertainty discussions we have developed four possible scenarios which each comprises a possible description of Denmark in 2050. In the following we delve down into each of the four scenarios.

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GREEN STATE

GREEN COMPROMISES

GREEN GUERILLA

GREEN NETWORKS

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5.1 2050: GREEN FOR THE STATE AND THE COMMUNITYIn 2050 the state has had a revival and take control when it comes to the green transition. The strong role of the state is supported by the return of collective values in society. The Danes vote red-green and prioritise collective green solutions financed via the common tax and duty system and started and implemented by public players. There is strong interaction between state politics and the green technological development and implementation.

The international cooperation in the EU, UN and in Scandinavia are permeated by the same collective currents although with regional variations. Climate challenges and green transition are high on the international agenda and there is a large consensus between the advanced economies of the world to follow common goals for CO2 reductions and energy optimisation. The frames are binding. Most countries, with Russia as an important exception, have signed agreements where there have committed themselves to reduce their CO2 emissions year by year.

Generally there is a low conflict level. There are, however, regional tensions and sometimes armed conflicts in both Africa and Eastern Europe where there are countries with large ethnic minorities. Largely the conflicts only involve local parties. The USA, the EU, Russia, China and India do not interfere in the conflicts. The tensions between Russia and the EU about the Crimean Peninsula and Ukraine in the 10s incited a hitherto unseen agreement between the EU countries of freeing themselves from the dependency on gas from Russia and venture into renewable energy sources. Denmark and the largest Danish cities are not just active but leading in the international climate cooperation.

In 2050 China and India have become economic growth and power centres. China’s GDP is double the USA’s in 2050. The two countries almost have control of previous problems like poverty, inequality, pollution and corruption. The enormous Chinese and Indian middle class drives the demand and the development in the mega metropoles. This furthers innovation and the green transition in the world springs from China in 2050. Therefore Denmark and the other Western economies orientate themselves heavily towards the two large Asian countries. The climate is high on the Asian agenda. Already in 2040 China phased out coal in the energy supply and focused on solar power, water and wind as the primary energy sources. It is also here, in the big Asian mega metropoles, that the new efficient city solutions within building, energy waste management and transport are developed and tested. Quickly afterwards they are introduced in cities in other parts of the world.

5 . Green state


Collective values and lifestyles dominatehow people relate to other groups and to society as a whole

GREEN STATE

For the same reason CO2 reduction and green transition are high on the Danish national agenda. The state and the community are once again in control, but now in association with the strong focus on CO2 reduction, renewable energy and other green transitions. Thereby there is also a prioritisation of energy efficient solutions and a more concentrated population development. In 2050 Denmark has thereby achieved becoming 100% independent of fossil fuels and has instead become 100% carbon-neutral and based on renewable energy. This has further pushed urbanisation and growth in the four largest city regions, Copenhagen, Aarhus, Odense and Aalborg.

Amongst the medium-sized cities (the classic market towns) some do well and some do less well.The medium-sized cities that do well are those that are functionally attached to to the job market and business development of the four large cities. The small towns and local communities are generally not prioritised, they have lost their significance and the development has stagnated – with occasional exceptions. The green transition ambition is generally high across the cities. The circular economy and the green GDP goal have become a reality.

Citizens and businesses prioritise a green lifestyle, the climate adaption is proactive and there is a high degree of central recycling. Construction is green and tall. The building mass is concentrated and becomes more homogenous with standardised constructions are common themes across the cities. The energy supply for homes and businesses is based on cross-national large-scale solutions with a high degree of renewable energy and with a particular prioritisation of wind and biomass as sources of supply.

There has been a similar trend for the business community to have become more concentrated. Big business is localised in and around the largest city regions or in some cases in the medium-sized cities that are functionally attached to the large cities.

5.2 THIS IS HOW IT HAPPENEDDisagreements between Russia, the USA and the EU after the annexation of the Crimea in 2014 and a following destabilisation of several countries in Central and Eastern Europe with large Russian majorities from the middle of the 10s and up until 2020 brought the EU member countries together and gave a new, much-needed burning platform for the European project. A main goal in the new common project was to ensure the supply of renewable energy which became the starting signal for new, massive investments in a green energy supply. This was, amongst other things, to make the EU independent of gas from Russia, which in 2014 comprised a third of EU’s total consumption.

At the same time the development gave a new opportunity for binding political agreements on both a national and European level. The 20s became a time of upheaval and in 2050 viewed as the decade when the green transition was not just discussed but also executed. Several climate agreements with very ambitious goals were entered into. Apart from region specific agreements COP28 was seen as a cornerstone in the international green transition. The cooperation across has been an essential driver for the green transition in 2050 being at a high level. This goes both across municipal, regional and national boundaries but also between public and private organisations.

The world cooperatesGlobally the international organisations and cooperations are strong and well-coordinated.


Consensus in the opinions on important subjects have led to the development of strong institutions, broad political agreements and a cooperation orientated global agenda.

After alarming reports in the 10s about the climate effects and their significance and a growing recognition that the hourglass was running out when it came to counteract man-made global warming, in the beginning of the 20s the international society reached an agreement on far-reaching measures.

At the climate conference COP28 in 2022 ambitious quotas were fixed and measures to minimise the climate consequences were agreed upon.

The economic incitement structures that have helped drive the transition in Denmark are derived from EU agreements that have implemented considerable taxes on fossil fuels, air travel and usage charge for the motorway networks for freight transport and private cars in the whole of the EU and taxes on shipping transport. The agreement on the common taxes across the European countries and in several cases internationally has also helped get the green transition moving.

The international climate agreements have also resulted in international cooperation on the research, development and implementation of green initiatives. New technology in the field of energy supply and transport has come into being by publicly financed research.

Source: DAMVAD og Kairos Future, 2014

FIGURE 5.1Critical factors, Green state 2050

0 = Low degree, 1 = Lesser degree, 2 = Some degree, 3 = High degree

INTERNATIONAL Climate agenda

CITIZENS AND SOCIETY Degree of diversity/variety

INTERNATIONAL Conflict level

LARGE CITY REGIONS Degree of urbanisation

LARGE CITY REGIONS Green transition

MEDIUM-SIZED CITIES GrowthENERGY AND CLIMATE Large-scale

MEDIUM-SIZED CITIES Green transition

NATIONAL The state’s interference in the market

CITIZENS AND SOCIETY Degree of citizens’ green lifestyle

ENERGY AND CLIMATE Renewable energy

TRANSPORT AND MOBILITY Collective

TRANSPORT AND MOBILITY Cross-national

BUSINESS AND ECONOMY Large-scale

BUSINESS AND ECONOMY Green economy

NATIONAL Climate agenda

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This makes the technology freely available for all businesses. Not least thanks to the large ventures in the comprehensive research programme Green 2050, Horizon 2020’s big brother. It has also resulted in a new generation of low-price and energy efficient solar cells dominating in 2050. They are utilised in large-scale setups.

At the same time there is great international pressure on the few economies that still have not undertaken a sufficiently ambitious green transition. This goes particularly for Russia and India as well as a few countries in Africa.

Denmark in a greener worldIn Denmark the green transition is also high on the agenda. It is driven by a will for common solutions and mutual trust. This has led to Denmark being a pioneering country with the introduction of a green GDP in 2020. The model of society ”Danish Sustainable Society Solutions” quickly became a coveted export article because it illustrated how long-term and stable political planning has led to a well-functioning green eco system where the various elements support one another and where warming, transport and production with fossil fuels are calculated with a higher expense factor directly corresponding to their environmental impact.

The ambitious focus on a green transition puts not least the Danish foodstuff products industry under heavy pressure. Particularly in the 10s this resulted in some resistance from the industry. But when the consumers and politicians generally stood together about the wish for a green transition of foodstuff production, it gradually got large parts of the industry to align and carry out changes in the content of raw materials and production processes. As a result of this, Danish agriculture achieved a first-mover

effect and a leading position as a, internationally speaking, more efficient and environmentally friendly business. In the 20s and 30s it has once again become hip to eat Danish bacon although in very limited amounts.

In Denmark we can also feel that the air traffic has come under pressure. The producers have not succeeded in reducing the use of fossil fuels sufficiently. Together with the introduction of large taxes on fossil fuels and and air travel, the domestic and tourism traffic is out for the count during the 30s. state initiatives and investments in more efficient train transport between the four largest cities also contributes to air travel over shorter distances having become a luxury only accessible to the few or in special cases. Many domestic routes and routes between the Scandinavian countries are completely closed down as a consequence of this.

Urbanisation is strengthened in the green transitionUrbanisation has continued through to 2050 but thanks to infrastructure investments and national unity and efficiency considerations most medium-sized cities are attached to the largest cities and therefore also experience a positive growth as part of the large functional city regions. In the latter part of the 20s the minimising of the airplane transport puts the Northern Jutland area under pressure but this is only temporary until an adaption in forms of transport and behaviour has occurred.

The small city areas that are not sufficiently attached to the large cities are under increased pressure, particularly because the citizens here emit more CO2 per inhabitant and because the large common solutions work best in large city environments. This is not least the case for the city public transport, the circular economy and the efficient district heating.


The capital and Mid and Eastern Jutland from Randers to Kolding are growth centres with strong settlements and business development. Odense blossoms as a growth centre for Funen and Southern Denmark, and Aalborg for Northern Jutland, although on a smaller scale.

Here the priorities have also thought of the large city as an attractive place to live. In Odense, for instance, they have successfully shut off large parts of the centre of town which has redefined the centre as a place where people and quality of life comes first. Because it is very attractive to live in the green centre of Odense with the many green and cultural offers, it has also become very expensive.

New green technologies mark the many thorough renovations of city buildings. Intelligent green walls, orchards on the roofs and new streams of water characterise the cities and have an important function as a taker of increased quantities of rainwater and the production of fruit and vegetables in the cities. The cities have also become calmer after the electric cars have really taken over the streets.

The city of Fredericia is often visited by foreign delegations wanting to learn more about how the long-term green strategy of the city has led to public buildings and the behaviour of public servants having a directly positive effect on the environment.

The Danes prioritise community and healthThe values of the Danes have changed markedly in the last 35 years. From a society focused on the individual the community is now valued and prioritised to a larger extent above the individual. What started as a reaction against individualism in small groups has become mainstream by the end of the 20s.

Materialism still plays a part of our everyday lives but is has changed radically parallel with the radical change to circular economy and a thorough digitalisation. The Danes primarily identify themselves through participation in larger communities and we identify ourselves as a part of a larger whole. The Danish club life is thriving. It is supported by the digital life where we share and borrow from one another.

Cooperation takes place all over while the column divided organisation logic has been replaced by interdisciplinary entities. Public private partnerships (PPPs) are the norm and they create good results for all.

Education and research within green technical solutions have been strongly developed. Being an ecology engineer is high status. The talent is concentrated in and around Aarhus, Copenhagen, Aalborg and Odense where the four campuses in relation to the Technical University of Denmark (DTU) are situated.The healthy lifestyle is in focus on all levels of society and it plays well with the collective focus on green transition. Mass currents have gone through society and people are expected to eat healthily, to not smoke and as a natural connection refrain from burdening the environment with too much unnecessary flight and car transport.

The technological development has really moved into our lives. “The Internet of Things” has become reality which means the development of an intelligent physical infrastructure. In other words our lives have been digitalised and the physical products have become intelligent: refrigerators automatically order your basics, the functions of the home are monitored and controlled via smartphone; health and care have been digitalised and so on.

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Our digital lives are driven by innovative businesses that are taking advantage of the new gigabyte networks which is up to 100 times the speed of the Internet. The development has been like going from using the telegraph to the telephone. The power of innovation is strong and while the appearance of the Internet radically changed industries within book sales, music and mail services, the gigabit networks has turned industries upside down – such as health services and education where new video technology dominates. The gigabit networks has also resulted in dramatic changes in the energy sector where it has paved the way for the intelligent smart grid.

The interaction between knowledge institutions and businesses have reached new heights, not least thanks to the political focus on long-term solutions for the climate changes. The good interaction between the citizens, the public and private knowledge institutions and businesses make the Danish businesses leading in the field of green technologies.

Digitalisation has helped strengthen urbanisation because the technological opportunities are best taken advantage of where there is a concentration of users. At the same time the greatest demand, and thereby spreading, is in the large cities.

Energy is planned centrally and long-termThe Danish and European energy systems have gone through a large change as a result of a long-term planning. A cornerstone in the international climate agreements, entered into as a result of the climate top meeting COP28

in 2022, have been global agreements on CO2 prices. This has led to a well-functioning market for the CO2 quotas where the prices have risen dramatically from the 2014 level. In 2050 the price development has developed the way it was predicted in a report by the European Commission in 2013,

A suggestion from the Danish Commission on Climate Change Policy for a green energy system, put forward in 2010, has been implemented. This has created an energy supply distributed as illustrated in figure 5.3.

Thereby we have become self-sufficient with green energy in 2050. Enormous windmills at sea have taken a central role together with the large energy efficient biomass plants. Heat pumps and solar energy also contribute to the green energy supply.

FIGURE 5.2The development in prices for CO2-quotas, 2015–2050, USD

Source: The European Commission: EU Energy transport and GHG emissions trends to 2050 reference scenario 2013

In 2045 the energy net in Europe has already become integrated with the new smart grid.


This results in an intelligent utilisation of green energy on a larger scale and when the wind is not blowing in the North Sea, the enormous solar cell plants in Southern European and North African countries supply electricity to the Danish consumers. The solar cells in the Sahara under the consortium Deserttec, is particularly significant since it covers 15% of Europe’s energy consumption in 2050 and is being massively extended. The smart grid solution has been a trailblazer project in Europe for decades and is a manifestation of the unity of the European countries and the fact that they act together when it comes to ensuring a green energy supply and keeping up the security of the supply.

The fact that we take a collective responsibility for the green transition has been a decisive factor in the fact that it has been possible politically to pass and carry out green

FIGURE 5.3Denmark’s energy sources 2008 vs 2050

reforms. Several sprouting and promising technologies whose potential was still only being guessed at in the 2010s have, through long-term investments from the European and international research programmes, reached a stage where we do not talk about whether they can be implemented but how.

For instance, mega investments in research have led to the EU consortium DEMO having the first fusion power plant running in 2030, and the opening of the first commercial fusion power plant happened in 20499. Expectations for the further development are therefore great. The potential for the global energy supply is enormous since fusion energy can lead to another paradigm shift. A shift where energy is no longer a scarce resource since warm fusion energy can produce the energy extremely cheaply and in unlimited quantities..

9 www.efda.org/fusion

Heat pumps, solar heat etc.

Wind

WindWaste

Source: Danish Commission on Climate Change Policy, 2010

Waste

Biomass

Heat pumps, solar heat etc.

Oil

Coal

Natural gas

Biomass

2010 2050

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Circular economy is a realityThe green economy has had a breakthrough in the most advanced countries in 2050. This is supported by the introduction of a green GDP where Denmark was a leading country in the 2020s and the transition to a circular economy.

Gradually the circular economy took over ’the world economy’ while new types of products became competitive with the traditional and it became mainstream that we as citizens prioritised these recyclable or degradable

products. The development is technological, particularly supported by new advanced types of material that are either 100% degradable or can be reused by the producers. Therefore a deposit has now been imposed on many types of materials and products.

Danish business is dominated by a few very large businesses that are leading internationally although competition is tough. The dominating theme for the businesses is green solutions and although some of them employ thousands of employees they are smaller pieces in the great whole as suppliers to huge multinational companies. When it comes to green solutions it is particularly within wind technology where knowledge institutions work closely together, that pull large parts of this export success.

Transport is collectiveThe collective types of transport have had a real breakthrough and is used by most people in 2050. This goes for both the the shorter trips around the cities, longer trips but very much also when the trip goes abroad. New high-speed trains now bind Europe closely. The DBT Foundation gave their guess for how the future of personal transport in 2013 is shared out, though few people believed it. In 2050, this distribution turned out to hold up, as seen in figure 5.4.

Traffic is regulated and controlled efficiently with the aid of digital systems and massive data. In 2050, air traffic has long been under pressure from climate requirements and high prices on fossil fuels and there is less flying out of the airports of Copenhagen. The other, lesser airports have had to shut down since

Circular economy

In 2050 the cities have changed to a circular economy. This means that products are either degradable and can return to nature without damaging it or that they can be returned to the producer who will recycle the products in the production of new ones. For the cities this has required a great transition that they have each gone through in the 2030s. The cities have focused on making the necessary infrastructure available in order to support the business possibilities by making it possible to sort, obtain and reproduce the degradable or recyclable products.

The first significant steps towards this had already been taken in 2013 with the then parliament’s Resource Strategy 2013. In 2050, 98% of electrical items from households are recycled. Resource effectivity has in 2050 become a competition parameter that holds more weight than access to cheap labour, like in an old paradigm. It is the rising prices of raw materials in particular that has caused this.


domestic flights in Denmark have ceased after the implementation of new high-speed trains. Now the electric car is the preferred type of individual transport and the standards all over the EU are the same.

A radical new battery technology, a rearranging of the taxes and a cooperation between states and car producers got electrical cars out to the consumers to a much larger degree during the 20s and the start of the 30s. Fossil fuels are still available but extremely expensive.

The business community has achieved remarkable energy optimisations but the implementation of biomass as fuel for the heavier vehicle has been a considerable driver for the transition of the transport sector. The demand for business transport has also declined because people buy local produce to a much greater extent and delivery drones do the majority of the smaller package deliveries.

FIGURE 5.4The share of personal transport, km per person – 2010 og 2050

2010 2050

Public transport

Public transport

Bicycle/walking

Bicycle/ walking

CarCar

Source: The DBT Foundation

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Citizens and society

Transport and mobility

Economy and business

Energy, climate and environment

5.3 TIMELINE FOR GREEN STATE

The timeline for reaching the Green state in 2050 includes a series of stepping stones or events that each contribute to the result. The common denominator for these events that are laid out on here is the strong state control

with a pronounced interaction between politics and green technology linked with the presence of collective values marking everything from politics to human behaviour and societal development.

Landslide victory for the Nordic People’s Party.

The newly formed Nordic People’s Party’s manifesto includes higher taxes for financing collective initiatives. The party wins by a landslide at both the parliamentary election and municipal elections in Denmark – the same goes for sister parties in other Scandinavian countries.

’Driving plan for Green Transport’

The plan from the Ministry of Transport puts the arrow in the green direction for Danish transport.

The circular economy

The movement surrounding circular economy picks up speed. This resonates in the business community.

Supply security

Russia’s actions in connection with Ukraine and other Eastern European countries leads to more wishes for greater supply security for renewable energy. This becomes an important driver for international climate and energy agreements. Germany leads the way.

Usage charge in the large cities

A usage charge in the large cities is imposed to respond to the congestion.

Green GDP

Denmark acts as a test country and introduces a green GDP – a united EU follows two years later.

COP28 in Sydney

COP28 delivers the most ambitious climate goal so far: the agreement is signed by most countries, including the USA and China.

Energy taxes

The EU introduces heavy taxes on fossil fuels and CO2.

Intelligent traffic

Intelligent and adaptable traffic control systems have taken the scene – it is illegal to drive a car yourself in the cities and on the motorway.

The material deposit

A deposit is introduced on many materials to support the circular economy.

Green 2040

The EU research programme GREEN 2040 allocates 900 billion DKK for green research and development.

Multi-storey buildings get a renaissance

The renovation of multi-storey buildings provide a breeding ground for a completely new way of living in the city – over half the Danes live in multi-storey buildings. Taxes and tax-free allowances makes it more attractive to live in flats.


Test centre for wave energy

A public private cooperation about test facilities for wave energy is launched.

The time of the drones

Electric delivery drones have really had their breakthrough and do deliveries of groceries and packages for the Danes.

The North Sea oil

The last drop of oil is extracted from the North Sea – it is not profitable to search for new reserves.

The era of the mega metropoles

75% of the world’s green GDP is created in 2300 enormous city regions

Intelligent traffic

Intelligent and adaptable traffic control systems have taken the scene – it is illegal to drive a car yourself in the cities and on the motorway.

The time of the offshore wind turbines

Offshore wind turbines cover 70% of the Danish electricity supply – this has made Denmark self-supplying with green energy.

Multi-storey buildings get a renaissance

The renovation of multi-storey buildings provide a breeding ground for a completely new way of living in the city – over half the Danes live in multi-storey buildings. Taxes and tax-free allowances makes it more attractive to live in flats.

Urbanisation continues

Nine out of ten live in the large city regions – the trend is global

Air traffic is scaled down

Copenhagen Airport closes a terminal. Air traffic is under pressure due to rising prices on fossil fuels and taxes on plane travel.

Global Food Council

Global Food Council gets the authority to control larger parts of the foodstuff production of the world.

European smart grid

The European smart grid is fully integrated.

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6.1 2050: GOALS FROM ABOVE – ACTION FROM BELOWIn 2050 the city and society development in Denmark permeated by values and behaviour that salute the individual freedom of choice. The technological development and digitalisation supported with ambitious goals of green transition with a focus on networks, integration and functionality across many different green solutions have strengthened the possibilities for citizens and businesses individually and locally to have great autonomy to make their own choices.

There is a lack of large cross-national decisions about infrastructure that can link the large cities and medium-sized cities functionally in larger, functioning regions – but players and systems are linked digitally.

There are great differences between the choice of solutions and how well the cities have succeeded in upholding and strengthening their attraction and ability to develop in competition with the other cities.

Internationally, climate is high on the agenda. The cooperation in the EU and internationally takes its starting point in common and ambitious goals for reduction of carbon emissions and energy optimisation. But the framework is not binding. Countries and cities, businesses and citizens have the opportunity to choose different ways to do the green transition based on technological possibilities, differences in the market and different traditions, cultures and possibilities. Internationally several countries, most of all China, have invested enormous resources in becoming a leader in the field of research and innovation in new green technologies. In 2050 China’s dominant position has great significance for the success of Danish businesses in the field of cleantech. Based on ambitious Danish ventures in cleantech clusters and the export of green technology in the 10s and 20s Danish businesses have had plenty of time to focus on the development of Danish strengths in the Chinese market. Thus they are prepared for the fact that standards and the direction of the development are very much set by the Asian market in 2050.

In Denmark the climate is high on the agenda. The less binding international frames suit the Danish political self-perception well – here the role of the state is particularly to unite the nation around the common goals and leave it to the market and citizens to deliver and choose the solutions that live up to the overall goals. A green GDP and circular economy have been implemented and it is filled out by a green lifestyle and behaviour amongst citizens and businesses.

6 . Green networks


Individual values and lifestyles dominatehow people relate to other groups and to society as a whole

GREEN NETWORKS

There is a high degree of sorting and recycling in the waste area but it expresses itself through many different solutions. The energy supply is diverse but with a high level of renewable energy. Construction is largely green but also very diverse and not very high. The most important thing is that the new or adapted buildings are energy efficient and are integrated into the eco system of the large city.

There is agreement on the ambitious goals for the green transition but there are large variations and possibilities when it comes to the different kinds of development in the cities. Some grow dramatically, others decline.

The liberal framework gives the best opportunities for growth in the four largest cities and in the small towns. The innovative possibilities and the market development are best filled out by the large cities with their critical mass of innovative businesses, knowledge institutions and talent. The bigger, the better. Copenhagen and Aarhus are absolute growth centres, after that the growth centres on Odense and Aalborg.

Aarhus differentiates itself by focusing strongly on becoming a leading ’smart city’. This attracts many start-ups globally since Aarhus is the ideal place to test new smart city technology. Aarhus is the place for technology’s first movers – citizens as well as businesses. The development inspires continuous discussions about the frameworks for our private lives since the smart city solutions gather large amounts of information about the citizens.

The development conditions for the small towns are also good but dependent on their particular historical assets, unique amenity value and local activists. The logic is that it does not take a lot to create a success in a small town under the

existing conditions. Within the free boundaries, bottom-up solutions and individual choices thrive in the small town that have the will to succeed.

The medium-sized cities, however (the traditional market towns) generally experience a stagnated growth in 2050. Since state intervention and and cross-national solutions are absent the medium-sized cities are not sufficiently attached to the largest cities and they in themselves lack the critical mass of innovative businesses, knowledge institutions and talent. At the same time citizens and businesses expect the cities to deliver when it comes to the common goals on green transition and attraction that have been largely drawn up – but they do not have the resources. You could say that the medium-sized cities are caught in being too small to utilise the free boundaries to choose their own efficient solutions and approaches to the green transition while they are too large to have the possibilities for local amenity value, quality of life, local activists etc. that some of the smaller towns have.

Middelfart is one of a very few exceptions amongst the medium-sized cities. With an early long-term strategy shaped in the 10s the city goes out of its way to attract smaller green tech businesses through a green profiling of the city. In 2050 they have succeeded in doing this when other medium-sized cities, finding that their number of inhabitants is falling, try to copy Middelfart’s model. But it is hard since it has been built up over several decades.

The logic for the business community is the same as for the cities. In this market the large businesses have all the prerequisites for utilising the free boundaries and the less obtrusive state. The smallest ones also thrive because they have lower expenses and face fewer demands. The medium-sized ones have a rough time in the competition with big business and small


business. The localisation of the businesses primarily happen in and around the largest cities where talent and knowledge institutions are localised with a certain critical mass.

There are, however, a number of small businesses, particularly in the service sector, that are localised in small towns and manage to attract resourceful citizens because of their unique location and amenity value. At the same time a few small towns have turned into what is internationally known as ’Company Cities’. This means that their development is completely tied to one large company which for historical reasons is localised in the town. The outlines for this as seen already during the 2010s and these small towns do relatively well because of this. Billund-LEGO is (still) the best example of this 2050. But there are also examples of an almost pure Arla town, a Grundfos town and a Velux town in Jutland in 2050.

6.2 THIS IS HOW IT HAPPENED

The development came from belowAt the end of 20s a breakdown in the international climate negotiations have been followed by more market responsive politics controlling the broad frames and green economic GDP goals. The development is driven by the market and the commitment of citizens’ groups, private businesses and funds, multinational as well as national. It is characteristic that the larger political organisations have good intentions but that it often takes many years to find a consensus about actual agreements. For instance, this has postponed the implementation of the European smart grid for years. This has consequences for the efficiency and execution but on the other hand a society is created which is adaptable to incorporate new technologies in solving the challenges of society.

FIGURE 6.1Critical factors, Green networks 2050

Source: DAMVAD og Kairos Future, 20140 = Low degree, 1 = Lesser degree, 2 = Some degree, 3 = High degree
















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There is a good international market climate for innovation and cooperation which is partly driven by market pressure from customers demanding individual solutions that function in the complex market.

National solutions are challengedThe cross-national agenda has lost its significance because local interests and special interests dominate politics. The media subsidies and license payments have been abolished because they did not sufficiently allowed for individual differences. This has meant the death of the classic national media which has been replaced by a blossoming of local media and special interest media as well as international media, both social and more commercial ones. There is a great variety and segmentation when it comes to what people watch, listen to and read. For several years this has had a knock-on effect on what people see as being ’truth’ and ’reality’. The polarisation of Danish society means that people can choose their own ’truth’ and source of news.

The society of the individual does nonetheless have citizens and businesses full of initiative and the will to act, contributing actively to bottom-up solutions for the green transition. The many diverse green solutions have resulted in public bodies going through dramatic changes in order to adapt the new society structures.

Urbanisation is for the largest and the smallestThe urbanisation trend has continued through to 2050 but has lost its momentum since the wild 10s and 20s when Copenhagen, Aarhus, Odense and Aalborg sucked up almost all economic growth.

Partly because of the challenges the large cities have absorbed the migration and growth

and due to the lack of an efficient attachment to the medium-sized cities that would otherwise be able to help, a growing part of the population wants to realise itself outside of the largest city regions.

The politicians follow the values of the citizens and support freedom of choice. Strong individual wishes arise of having a local sense of belonging to the life outside of the large cities and the values of closeness and quality of life that are valued here. The smallest towns can offer this alternative, not the medium-sized cities that struggle to offer the same life as the largest cities to their citizens.

Therefore several small towns have great success in branding themselves with unique offers – the naturally beautiful areas along the coasts are particularly popular. Others have succeeded in building up small green societies where energy, transport and waste solutions function in a semi-closed cycle. There are, however, small towns that have not managed to differentiate themselves or make their own green transition. They have experienced a lot of population emigration and actual shutdowns.

The large cities are very aware of what other large cities are doing and they show each other what works and what does not. On the surface the large cities look more and more alike but when you look at the actual parts of each city you see an extreme diversity and multifunctionality with a mix of experiences, business clusters, vertical foodstuff centres and farms as well as living quarters side by side and integrated in the largest cities. Parts of cities, too, start looking more and more alike across the large cities, so Østerbro looks like Östermalm in Stockholm which again looks like Manhattan’s Upper East Side in New York when it comes to the solutions that are selected within energy,


transport and lifestyle. The communities with a common interest are strong, not the community as a whole. To a larger and larger degree we identify across national borders rather than with the national state.

The citizens want diversityIn 2050 consumers and citizens expect individually adapted products and services, both in the public and private sector. The individualised behaviour of the citizens is motivated and made possible by the technological and digital development.

An enormous diversity of subcultures and communities of interest are all struggling to influence the design of society. A certain political ability to adapt creates diversity in the city space with many different green solutions rolled out. It is generally acknowledged that local activists and local organisations are essential for reaching a durable green transition.

At the same time it is also accepted that the varied green transition that is expressed here, can have different effects on the attractiveness, competitiveness and and economic wealth of cities and local areas. For the authorities, nationally and decentralised, the challenge is to constantly be able to adapt the infrastructure so the many solutions work with and not against each other.

Technology supports diversityIn 2050, development is dictated by advanced technology utilisation and an intense digitalisation of all society and business structures.

Renewable energy technological and transport technological solutions are based on technologies that encourage individual and local adaptations as well as selections

and rejections. Big data, robot technology, 3D print and innovations in the field of material technology give new possibilities for local production in Denmark, new possibilities in the area of construction as well as transport and energy supply.

At the same time it is significant for our behaviour. 3D print has recreated the way we consume. Smaller consumer goods that we do not rent or lease are printed in degradable materials and are often designed by the consumer herself on interactive websites or directly in the physical webshops.

The energy system is reorganised In 2050 the energy supply in Denmark has gone through a reorganisation and flexible connections between many different solutions: wind, biomass, sun, wave energy, hydrogen.

It began when the big Energy Agreement from 2012 was reopened by the parties who had agreed on it when falling energy prices changed the agreement’s prerequisites. On this background it was decided that the state’s investments in offshore wind turbine parks were to be halved. The lack of long-term predictability resonates in the business community and society which starts opening up to several energy sourced as long as they contribute to the goal of a green transition.

The low oil prices only last for a short time however. Predictions of rising oil prices from the International Energy Agency turned out to hold up which meant an oil price of over 200 USD per barrel already in 2040. This led to dramatic economic incitements for investing in the many new energy technologies. Now the energy is primarily produced decentralised by citizens, businesses and city regions. It is constantly a challenge to adapt the energy net

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to the development within the different solutions but on the other hand both the market and the politics are designed to have great openness concerning this challenge. In order to make this change possible there has been a politically driven marked change of the energy tax system so it pays to divide energy supply between cities and businesses and thereby save energy and choose new and local solutions.

Through the 20s the Danes have taken on many green energy technologies. This put the large central energy solutions under pressure just like the politicians, in the 20s, were seriously confronted with a tax problem when a large part of the state’s budget was tied to taxes on energy.

As early as 2015 a thorough review of the Danish tax and subsidy system was carried out. This led to a number of legislation changes in the area. In 2023 Denmark implemented an extensive tax reform which, after several years of negotiations, was implemented by the parties behind it. The reform implemented a simplified tax system which also had clear incitements to the transitions to a fossil free energy system.

The reform consisted of a tax divided into three10

1) A resource tax2) A tax following the environment and CO2

3) A tax following the national/local supply security

After reorganising the tax system and by using a new smart grid technology we have been successful in establishing a system where

surplus energy in a local area can be sold to other areas via the smart grid net. This system is a particular advantage to Kalundborg, which has invested for many years in utilising this.

Through new electricity cables to Sweden (2025), Norway (2033) and Germany (2029 and 2042) Denmark has become fully integrated in the European electrical system. Denmark and Danish cities are thereby connected to the rest of Europe in the energy supply area which gives local opportunities to balance energy and effect needs.

New economic playing rulesIn 2050 new technological and digital innovations as well as new materials have given new power to the consumer culture. Particularly the 3D

The 3D printer

The 3D printer has constituted the 3rd industrial

revolution. We print everything either our small home

printers, at the local print station printing larger

products or via ordering online and having it delivered

to us.

At home we print toys, kitchenware, tools etc, while

larger appliances and furniture are handled by the

larger 3D printers. This has put pressure on the old

production industries and they are struggling to

reinvent themselves in new business models. This is

the same problem the music industry faced in the 00s.

In the hospitals, human organs are printed. When

larger humanitarian catastrophes occur 3D printers on

a large scale are utilised to print temporary huts but

also to reproduce themselves so that production can

be increased on site.

The 3D printer has also given challenges as in conflict

areas hand weapons are printed as needed.

10 Inspirationsource: http://ing.dk/artikel/fjernvarmedirektoer-og-raadgiver-danske-energiafgifter-er-fuldstaendig-gakgak-160226


printer has made its entry and revolutionised the production of everything from kitchen ware to smaller houses. The new technology and new materials create completely different economic prerequisites and playing rules.

Public transport under pressureThe large collective and cross-national forms of transport have been downgraded following the unobtrusive role of the state and following the breakthrough in the market for energy efficient and individual modes of transport. Many different types of solutions are in demand – electric cars, hybrid cars, electrical bicycles and sharing systems work side by side. Driverless vehicles are also gaining ground. The petrol car is less profitable as a mode of transport and gradually gets a smaller and smaller share of the market in the period through to 2050. At the charging stations for electrical cars several solutions exist side by side – different types of charging technologies and battery change stations. Electrical cars and buses are also an important part of the integrated smart grid as they can store the power when there is a overcapacity on the energy net.

There is also great focus on being able to walk and cycle as a mode of transport, particularly in the large cities. In Copenhagen the new Nordhavn is a reality as a part of the city without any private car use whatsoever – and thereby with no parking possibilities for cars.

When it comes to freight transport the situation is that fewer goods are produced in countries far away from Denmark. Robots, 3D printing, digitalisation and new materials as well as an increased focus on emission problems linked to plan and ship freight have created a consumer wish to buy, repair and share goods locally to an extent so that considerable global trade and transport have experienced a decline year by year since the 30s.

A.P. Møller – Mærsk, which in the 2030s had a great overcapacity of ships and was threatened by bankruptcy as a result of the strong decline in container traffic has through a strategy process extended their focus to also comprise passenger transport. In the 40s this change turned out to be correct because it was realised at the same time as the air traffic got under increasing pressure for its large amounts of carbon emissions. This moved a large proportion of the long distance passenger transport from planes to ships. Half of all container ships and planes are taken out of service and moderne, fast-going ships are built for passenger transport and using sun and wind as their primary driving force. Maersk’s new focus area has lifted the old company to its previous glory.

Climate and environment in a local and varied contextThere is great prestige in being environmentally friendly but it has to be done in your own personal way. It is connected to social status to produce your own foodstuff and by cradle to cradle certified products as long as it is possible to personalise services and products. Together, the individualised products and services contribute to the green transition and obvious environmental improvements.

Large parts of agriculture, too, have managed the transition and animal stock and the cultivation of the earth is often organic, not least to meet demand from the green cities that do not yet have any local production of foodstuffs. Most Danish cities have large farms integrated in the cities, either vertically or as a part of a plant that also serves other purposes. Copenhagen, Aarhus and Aalborg have established central fish and mussel breeding stations that supply foodstuff for the populations of the cities.

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6.3 TIMELINE FOR GREEN NETWORKS

The events that have led Danish cities to the Green networks society in 2050 are characterised by coming from below in the market or civil society. They are made possible by public politics that has set up ambitious

goals for the green transition but has been just as eager to give freedom of choice to citizens and businesses when it comes to choosing solutions for reaching these goals.





Digital services

Digital consumer and user orientated services are booming and their utilisation has really become synonymous with quality of life.

Congestion in the large cities

The congestion in the capital and other large cities limits the growth

Strong innovation power

Open source, open data, Big data and free data drive an innovation revolution where an undergrowth of small innovative businesses push out the big multinational ones in all industries. Small is beautiful again.

The Energy Agreement

The Energy Agreement from 2012 is reopened by the parties who had agreed on it when falling energy prices change the agreement’s prerequisites. Investments in offshore wind turbine parks are halved. The lack of long-term predictability resonates in the business community.

Reform of energy taxes

The energy taxes are simplified in order to give the best possible conditions for the businesses and freedom of choice for the citizens.

Individualised energy supply

Sun, bio plants, mini windmills and residential windmills are a hit. People choose not to use central solutions.

Build Local Green

The Build Local Green initiative with its focus on the use of sustainable materials and 3D printing in Danish businesses and the whole value chain is launched with great success.

Sharing systems boom

Shared car, shared flat, shared tools. We share and rent out material goods like never before.

Driverless cars

Car revolution – driverless cars move into the cities. It becomes illegal for individuals to drive a car in the cities and on motorways.

20,000 electrical cars

The small electrical cars have become the norm in the cities.

Failed climate agreement

A breakdown in international negotiations, large cities and the market take the lead.

Green roofs

The citizens’ initiative ’Green roofs’ is established as a large venture subsidised by a fund. The plan is that 60% of the vegetable consumption in the cities should be locally produced in 2035. The cities support this and make public space available for this purpose.


Oil extraction is stopped

Denmark decides to completely stop the oil and gas extraction from the by now very outdated rigs in the North Sea.

Individualised energy supply

Sun, bio plants, mini windmills and residential windmills are a hit. People choose not to use central solutions.

Bio economy cluster

A bio economy cluster is established by crowdfunding in the Scandinavian countries. The cluster works to make valuable products from leftover biomass and organic waste.

Water cluster

A Danish water cluster pools resources and investments from all of Scandinavia – it quickly attracts scientists and businesses in the water area from all over the world.

More jobs

Income statements show that people’s income often comes from several jobs and freelance jobs.

The need for mobility is reduced

The digital possibilities reduce the transport needs of the Danes.

Driverless cars

Car revolution – driverless cars move into the cities. It becomes illegal for individuals to drive a car in the cities and on motorways.

Welfare state under pressure

The financing of the welfare state is under very strong pressure from lower and lower income from the North Sea.

Fewer m2 per city dweller

People’s demands on the size of a flat have been minimised. From an average of 52 m2 per Dane in 2013 to 45 m2 in 2038.

Virtual city sections

The cities are bursting with diversity. At the same time the individual subgroupings look alike across cities globally. Virtual global city sections are developed, for instance Østerbro-Østermalm-Notting Hill.

European Smart Grid

The European smart grid is by now fully integrated.

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Matrix for 10 Danish cities in 2050

LARGE CITY REGIONS

Copenhagen Aarhus

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orth

Ger

man

y (B

erlin

and

Ham

burg

)•

Muc

h ne

w in

fras

truc

ture

nec

essa

ry –

incl

. ne

w tr

ains

and

line

s be

twee

n m

etro

pole

s an

d la

rge

city

are

as in

Den

mar

k•

Dev

elop

men

t of a

ll ne

w re

side

ntia

l and

bu

sine

ss a

reas

, sm

all f

lats

•Lo

catio

n m

ore

impo

rtan

t tha

n si

ze•

Very

spe

cial

ised

bus

ines

s co

mm

unity

and

co

ncen

trat

ion

of ta

lent

s•

Big

busi

ness

dom

inat

es b

ut h

as m

oved

ou

t of t

he c

entr

e•

Effic

ienc

y in

prid

e of

pla

ce –

thus

few

and

do

min

atin

g so

lutio

ns•

The

tale

nt is

con

cent

rate

d in

Cop

enha

gen

and

ofte

n w

orks

spe

cial

ised

in la

rge

units

•G

reen

tran

sitio

n: h

igh

and

unifo

rm

•St

rong

urb

anis

atio

n, h

igh

grow

th•

With

loca

l lig

ht ra

il an

d fa

st tr

ain

to

Cop

enha

gen

over

Kat

tega

t and

to

Ham

burg

it is

effi

cien

tly a

ttac

hed

to th

e su

rrou

ndin

g w

orld

and

an

impo

rtan

t cen

tre

for t

he M

id a

nd E

aste

rn J

utla

nd c

ity s

tret

ch•

Com

petit

ion

with

Cop

enha

gen

abou

t ta

lent

and

bus

ines

s is

incr

easi

ng b

ut b

oth

citie

s ar

e st

reng

then

ed b

y th

e K

atte

gat

fixed

link

•A

arhu

s A

irpor

t is

shut

dow

n•

Dev

elop

men

t of a

ll ne

w re

side

ntia

l and

bu

sine

ss a

reas

in A

arhu

s, m

any

smal

l fla

ts•

Larg

e pa

rts

of c

entr

al A

arhu

s ke

pt c

ar fr

ee•

Loca

tion

at th

e ce

ntre

and

by

the

harb

our

mor

e im

port

ant t

han

size

•Ve

ry s

peci

alis

ed b

usin

ess

com

mun

ity

(gre

en te

ch a

nd tr

ade)

and

a

conc

entr

atio

n of

tale

nts

for t

he w

hole

of

the

Jutla

nd a

nd F

unen

are

as•

Big

busi

ness

dom

inat

es•

Effic

ienc

y in

prid

e of

pla

ce –

so

few

and

do

min

atin

g so

lutio

ns•

Gre

en tr

ansi

tion:

hig

h an

d un

iform

, ce

ntra

lised

sol

utio

ns

•St

rong

urb

anis

atio

n, h

igh

grow

th•

Aar

hus

has

the

perf

ect s

ize

and

min

dset

in

mun

icip

ality

, citi

zens

and

bus

ines

s co

mm

unity

to b

ecom

e an

adv

ance

d sm

art

city

at t

he h

ighe

st le

vel

•In

coo

pera

tion

betw

een

mun

icip

ality

, la

rge

and

smal

l bus

ines

ses

and

rese

arch

ce

ntre

s di

gita

l sol

utio

ns a

re d

evel

oped

th

at a

llow

for s

mar

t sol

utio

n fo

r eve

ryth

ing

from

driv

erle

ss c

ars,

dro

nes

and

ener

gy to

w

ater

and

was

te m

anag

emen

t.•

The

dig

ital s

olut

ions

allo

w th

e th

e ci

tizen

s m

ore

indi

vidu

al s

olut

ions

and

this

mak

es

poss

ible

that

the

Aar

hus

area

can

abs

orb

the

grow

th w

ithou

t hou

sing

cris

is o

r co

nges

tion

prob

lem

s•

Aar

hus’

cha

lleng

e is

to c

reat

e a

deve

lopm

ent t

hat a

lso

give

s a

syne

rgy

and

inte

ract

ion

with

the

man

y m

ediu

m-

size

d ci

ties

clos

e by

that

can

see

that

A

arhu

s ru

ns a

way

with

all

the

grow

th o

r th

at p

eopl

e m

ove

to s

mal

l tow

ns to

live

•M

any

flats

, prim

arily

sm

all,

are

built

in

Aar

hus

•G

reen

tran

sitio

n: h

igh

and

varie

d

•M

ediu

m u

rban

isat

ion

and

grow

th•

Exis

ting

infr

astr

uctu

re is

not

up

grad

es a

nd b

ecom

es o

utda

ted

•In

tera

ctio

n w

ith s

urro

undi

ng c

ities

de

crea

ses.

Dev

elop

men

t hap

pens

in

dist

ricts

and

sm

all t

owns

•N

o fa

st tr

ain

or K

atte

gat f

ixed

link

is

esta

blis

hed

•Se

vera

l lar

ge b

usin

esse

s cr

eate

th

eir o

wn

gree

n pr

ojec

ts in

the

harb

our a

nd in

Aar

hus

East

as

a pr

otes

t aga

inst

the

mun

icip

al la

ck o

f ab

ility

to re

alis

e pr

ojec

ts•

Seve

ral d

istr

icts

dev

elop

au

tono

mou

sly

with

man

y gr

assr

oots

an

d st

uden

ts•

Gre

en tr

ansi

tion:

med

ium

with

a

larg

e va

riety

bet

wee

n di

stric

ts a

nd

orga

nisa

tions

•Bu

sine

ss c

omm

uniti

es fo

cuse

d on

th

e lo

cal a

nd u

ser-

orie

ntat

ed, m

any

smal

l loc

al c

lust

ers

•Pe

ople

with

sam

e in

tere

sts

and

valu

es a

lso

shar

e jo

bs a

nd h

omes

m

ore

loca

lly

•M

ediu

m u

rban

isat

ion,

med

ium

gr

owth

•Ex

istin

g in

frast

ruct

ure

upgr

aded

with

a

focu

s on

the

road

net

wor

ks•

The

Aar

hus

area

is d

evel

oped

for

cars

with

man

y pa

rkin

g op

port

uniti

es•

Mob

ility

bet

wee

n th

e la

rge

citie

s in

crea

sed

•Bi

g bu

sine

ss d

omin

ates

but

has

m

oved

out

of t

he c

entr

e of

Aar

hus

due

to c

onge

stio

n•

Part

s of

Aar

hus

find

it ha

rd to

de

velo

p an

d ar

e em

pty

due

to la

ck

of d

evel

opm

ent,

the

relo

catio

n of

the

busi

ness

com

mun

ity a

nd to

o hi

gh

pric

e le

vel f

or h

omes

•M

ore

youn

gste

rs m

ove

from

Aar

hus

to C

open

hage

n to

get

a jo

b or

to

the

surr

ound

ing

citie

s to

get

hom

es,

acce

ss to

goo

d se

rvic

e an

d cl

ean

air

•G

reen

tran

sitio

n on

a v

ery

low

leve

l•

Muc

h tr

ade

and

cultu

re h

ave

mov

ed

away

from

the

city

and

it is

har

d fo

r th

e m

unic

ipal

ity to

mak

e th

e ce

ntre

of

the

city

att

ract

ive

•St

rong

urb

anis

atio

n, h

igh

grow

th•

Dig

italis

atio

n re

duce

s th

e m

obili

ty n

eed

and

redu

ces

the

need

for a

new

tran

spor

t in

fras

truc

ture

•A

lot o

f sm

art (

city

) pu

blic

tran

spor

t, sh

ared

car

s, ri

de-s

harin

g•

The

citi

zens

find

man

y in

divi

dual

sol

utio

ns•

Exis

ting

publ

ic b

uild

ings

(sch

ools

, lib

rarie

s, m

unic

ipal

ity)

and

larg

e in

dust

rial

build

ings

in th

e ci

ty c

hang

e th

eir f

unct

ion

to fl

ats

and

com

mon

are

as•

Mor

e pe

ople

live

in s

mal

l fla

ts•

A lo

t of n

ew s

mal

l bus

ines

s (b

ased

on

big

data

, cro

wds

ourc

ing,

mic

ro ta

sks)

•G

reen

tran

sitio

n: h

igh

and

varie

d

•M

ediu

m u

rban

isat

ion,

urb

an g

row

th•

Less

inte

rcity

tran

spor

t•

Exis

ting

infr

astr

uctu

re u

pgra

ded

slig

htly

•M

ore

focu

s on

cyc

ling

and

wal

king

(in

divi

dual

DIY

tran

spor

t)•

The

cap

ital b

ecom

es m

ulti-

cent

ered

and

eac

h qu

arte

r de

velo

ps d

iffer

ently

and

sel

f-ce

ntre

d•

Gre

en tr

ansi

tion:

with

gre

at v

arie

ty

betw

een

dist

ricts

and

org

anis

atio

ns•

Busi

ness

com

mun

ity fo

cuse

d on

w

hat i

s lo

cal a

nd u

ser o

rient

ated

, m

any

smal

l loc

al c

lust

ers

•Pe

ople

with

sam

e in

tere

sts

and

valu

es s

hare

job

and

hom

e m

ore

loca

lly

•M

ediu

m u

rban

isat

ion,

med

ium

gr

owth

•Ex

istin

g in

fras

truc

ture

upg

rade

d,

mob

ility

incr

ease

d be

twee

n la

rge

citie

s al

l ove

r the

cou

ntry

•C

open

hage

n is

an

exte

nded

hub

for

plan

e tr

ansp

ort b

ut n

ot tr

ain

•Pu

blic

tran

spor

t sol

utio

ns•

Big

busi

ness

dom

inat

es a

roun

d th

e ca

pita

l are

a, h

as m

oved

out

of t

he

cent

re d

ue to

con

gest

ion

•T

he ta

lent

is s

prea

d ou

t of

Cop

enha

gen

•M

ore

youn

g pe

ople

mov

e ou

t of

Cop

enha

gen

to g

ain

acce

ss to

se

rvic

e an

d cl

ean

air e

tc.

•G

reen

tran

sitio

n on

a lo

w le

vel

GR

EEN

STA

TE

CIT

YG

REE

N G

UER

ILLA

GR

EEN

NET

WO

RK

SG

REE

N C

OM

PRO

MIS

ES

67

LARGE CITY REGIONS

Odense Aalborg•

Stro

ng u

rban

isat

ion

and

high

gro

wth

•O

dens

e’s

loca

tion

is o

ptim

al to

effi

cien

tly

be a

ttac

hed

with

the

othe

r lar

ge c

ities

and

C

open

hage

n w

ith e

ffici

ent f

ast t

rain

line

s•

Ode

nse

attr

acts

larg

e st

ate

subs

idie

s an

d m

akes

a

10 y

ear r

esto

ratio

n pl

an fo

r inf

rast

ruct

ure

The

m

obili

ty in

Ode

nse

is p

rimar

ily d

evel

oped

with

pu

blic

tran

spor

t and

ligh

t rai

l•

Elec

tric

bus

es c

onne

ct O

dens

e w

ith it

s su

rrou

ndin

gs•

Man

y of

the

med

ium

-siz

ed a

nd s

mal

l tow

ns a

re

havi

ng a

har

d tim

e. O

dens

e ge

ts m

ost o

f the

gro

wth

•O

dens

e ha

s be

com

e th

e se

rvic

e an

d tr

ade

cent

re

for a

ll of

Fun

en•

Uni

vers

ity o

f Sou

ther

n D

enm

ark

is re

nam

ed

Uni

vers

ity o

f Fun

en a

nd is

con

cent

rate

d in

Ode

nse

•T

he c

entr

e of

Ode

nse

has

gone

thro

ugh

a bi

g ch

ange

and

has

bec

ome

mor

e at

trac

tive

to s

ettle

in•

Larg

e bu

sine

sses

dom

inat

e an

d ha

ve lo

calis

ed

them

selv

es a

roun

d O

dens

e an

d co

-ope

rate

s w

ith

Uni

vers

ity o

f Fun

en a

nd th

e m

unic

ipal

ity a

bout

th

e de

velo

pmen

t of c

lust

ers

and

test

s of

gre

en

solu

tions

•T

he g

reen

tran

sitio

n is

hig

h an

d un

iform

•St

rong

urb

anis

atio

n an

d hi

gh g

row

th•

Aal

borg

is c

onne

cted

to th

e re

st o

f the

cou

ntry

, pa

rtic

ular

ly th

anks

to e

ffect

ive

fast

trai

n lin

es, w

ith

elec

tric

bus

es c

onne

ctin

g A

albo

rg to

the

rest

of

Nor

ther

n Ju

tland

•M

any

of th

e m

ediu

m-s

ized

and

sm

all t

owns

in

Nor

ther

n Ju

tland

are

in d

iffic

ultie

s•

Aal

borg

airp

ort c

lose

s•

Larg

e am

ount

s of

sta

te in

vest

men

t and

EU

pr

ogra

mm

es h

elp

Aal

borg

and

all

of th

e re

gion

s of

N

orth

ern

Jutla

nd. A

albo

rg U

nive

rsity

pla

ys a

cen

tral

ro

le in

gre

en te

chno

logy

dev

elop

men

t, re

new

able

en

ergy

dev

elop

men

t and

pro

duct

ion

of b

iofu

els

•It

is im

port

ant t

o A

albo

rg th

at th

e ha

rbou

r are

a is

de

velo

ped

with

new

sm

art h

ousi

ng a

nd b

usin

ess

area

s•

Big

busi

ness

es w

ork

toge

ther

with

Aal

borg

U

nive

rsity

to d

evel

op c

lust

ers

and

test

s of

gre

en

solu

tions

•T

he c

ity is

in a

pos

ition

to a

ttra

ct s

tate

and

EU

in

vest

men

t and

can

cre

ate

spac

e fo

r new

bui

ldin

gs

and

busi

ness

es•

Gre

en tr

ansi

tion

is h

igh

and

unifo

rm

•St

rong

urb

anis

atio

n an

d hi

gh g

row

th•

Aal

borg

, with

the

exce

ptio

n of

som

e sm

all t

owns

, is

the

cent

re fo

r mor

e or

less

all

habi

tatio

n an

d bu

sine

ss

deve

lopm

ent

•A

albo

rg is

the

cent

re fo

r a lo

t of s

mar

t city

dev

elop

men

t be

caus

e th

ere

is a

lot o

f new

con

stru

ctio

n in

the

cent

re

and

by th

e ha

rbou

r. D

igita

lisat

ion

solv

es m

any

of th

e pr

oble

ms

of m

obili

ty w

ithin

the

city

lim

its•

Busi

ness

es u

tilis

e te

chno

logy

and

com

mon

targ

ets

to b

e ex

port

ers

of re

new

able

ene

rgy

and

high

qua

lity

food

stuff

s.•

Man

y ne

w s

mal

l bus

ines

ses

deve

lop

into

new

clu

ster

s (b

ased

on

big

data

, cro

wds

ourc

ing,

mic

ro ta

sks)

•T

here

is a

wid

e va

riatio

n in

the

way

the

peop

le o

f N

orth

ern

Jutla

nd li

ve, b

ut th

ey a

re c

onne

cted

thro

ugh

tech

nolo

gica

l sol

utio

ns•

The

Aal

borg

regi

on is

sel

f-su

ffici

ent b

ecau

se o

f re

new

able

ene

rgy

•T

here

is a

lot o

f foc

us o

n se

para

ting

them

selv

es fr

om

Aar

hus

and

crea

te s

pace

for i

ndiv

idua

l fre

edom

and

ha

bita

tion

•T

he le

vel f

or g

reen

tran

sitio

n is

hig

h, b

ut th

ere

is m

uch

varia

tion

betw

een

Aal

borg

’s re

gion

s an

d su

rrou

ndin

gs

•M

ediu

m le

vel f

or u

rban

isat

ion

and

grow

th•

Aal

borg

is g

row

ing,

but

gro

wth

is c

halle

nged

by

lack

of a

com

mon

goa

l and

unc

oord

inat

ed

activ

ities

. It h

ampe

rs th

e eff

ect o

f ini

tiativ

es.

•Tr

ansp

ort b

etw

een

city

and

cou

ntry

side

is

the

indi

vidu

al’s

resp

onsi

bilit

y•

Ove

rcro

wdi

ng re

stric

ts c

itize

ns’ g

roup

s, a

nd

big

busi

ness

es h

ave

take

n re

spon

sibi

lity

for

gree

n tr

ansi

tion.

•Lo

w-ly

ing

city

and

hou

sing

are

as a

re fl

oode

d•

Aal

borg

is to

a le

sser

deg

ree

conn

ecte

d to

th

e su

rrou

ndin

g to

wns

, and

ther

e is

maj

or

ineq

ualit

y ac

ross

sec

tions

of t

he p

opul

atio

n.•

Aal

borg

gro

ws

at th

e ex

pens

e of

the

med

ium

-siz

ed to

wns

in N

orth

ern

Jutla

nd,

but i

t is

itsel

f in

clos

e co

mpe

titio

n an

d lo

sing

ta

lent

to b

oth

Aar

hus

and

Cop

enha

gen

•M

ediu

m le

vel f

or u

rban

isat

ion

and

grow

th.

Inha

bita

nts

emig

rate

from

the

coun

try

dist

ricts

and

the

smal

l tow

ns. T

he m

ediu

m-

size

d to

wns

in N

orth

ern

Jutla

nd h

old

firm

an

d th

eir d

evel

opm

ent o

ccur

s in

con

junc

tion

with

Aal

borg

•St

rong

focu

s on

gro

wth

mea

ns th

at g

reen

tr

ansi

tion

is p

ushe

d in

to th

e ba

ckgr

ound

•A

albo

rg a

irpor

t dev

elop

s in

to J

utla

nd’s

maj

or

junc

tion.

Thi

s is

impo

rtan

t for

the

inha

bita

nts

and

busi

ness

loca

lisat

ion

•Pu

blic

tran

spor

t sol

utio

ns, b

ut p

rivat

e m

otor

ing

is p

riorit

ised

in N

orth

ern

Jutla

nd•

Tech

nolo

gica

l dev

elop

men

t is

driv

en b

y bi

g bu

sine

ss a

nd is

not

dire

cted

tow

ards

gre

en

tran

sitio

n an

d is

not

sup

port

ed b

y pu

blic

au

thor

ities

•T

here

is m

ajor

focu

s on

ada

ptat

ion

to c

limat

e ch

ange

•Pa

rts

of c

entr

al A

albo

rg a

nd th

e ar

ea a

roun

d th

e ha

rbou

r are

und

er p

ress

ure

from

the

trad

e ce

ntre

s ou

tsid

e of

the

city

.

•St

rong

urb

anis

atio

n an

d hi

gh g

row

th•

With

the

exce

ptio

n of

som

e sm

all t

owns

Ode

nse

is

the

cent

re fo

r pra

ctic

ally

all

sett

lem

ent a

nd b

usin

ess

deve

lopm

ent a

t fun

en•

Ode

nse

give

s ro

om fo

r city

dev

elop

men

t whe

re th

e m

obili

ty is

incr

ease

d w

ith a

focu

s on

bot

h w

alki

ng,

cycl

ing,

ele

ctric

car

s, d

river

less

car

s, d

rone

s an

d pu

blic

tr

ansp

ort

•O

dens

e at

trac

ts la

rge

priv

ate

inve

stm

ents

from

fund

s an

d th

e bu

sine

ss c

omm

unity

, mak

ing

poss

ible

a

rest

orat

ion

of th

e ci

ty a

nd th

e in

fras

truc

ture

ove

r a

perio

d of

20

year

s w

ithou

t bur

deni

ng p

ublic

bud

gets

•O

dens

e ex

perie

nces

a s

tron

g bu

sine

ss g

row

th in

th

e fo

odst

uff a

rea,

IT a

nd tr

ansp

ort s

olut

ions

with

a

blos

som

ing

of n

ew s

mal

l bus

ines

s. T

he b

usin

esse

s w

ant

to b

e pl

aces

nea

r the

cen

tre,

clo

se to

the

univ

ersi

ty•

The

Ode

nse

area

con

tinue

s to

dev

elop

bro

adly

to

deta

ched

hou

se a

reas

•T

here

is g

reat

focu

s on

bei

ng d

iffer

ent f

rom

Aar

hus

and

Cop

enha

gen

and

bran

ding

the

city

on

crea

ting

spac

e fo

r ind

ivid

ual f

reed

om a

nd th

e fr

eer s

ettle

men

ts

of fa

mili

es•

The

leve

l for

the

gree

n tr

ansi

tion

is h

igh

but v

ery

varie

d in

Ode

nse’

s di

stric

ts a

nd c

lose

sur

roun

ding

s

•M

ediu

m le

vel f

or u

rban

isat

ion

and

grow

th•

Ode

nse

grow

s, b

ut th

e gr

owth

is c

halle

nged

du

e to

lack

of a

com

mon

goa

l and

un

coor

dina

ted

activ

ities

. It h

ampe

rs th

e eff

ect o

f the

initi

ativ

es.

•Tr

ansp

ort b

etw

een

the

city

and

the

coun

try

is b

y in

divi

dual

resp

onsi

bilit

y•

Con

gest

ion

slow

s O

dens

e’s

deve

lopm

ent

and

the

city

is ru

n-do

wn

•A

ser

ies

of la

rge

proj

ects

from

the

10s

have

be

en a

band

oned

•C

itize

ns’ g

roup

s an

d a

few

big

bus

ines

ses

have

take

n re

spon

sibi

lity

for t

heir

own

gree

n tr

ansi

tion,

but

they

are

unc

oord

inat

ed a

nd

lack

effe

ctiv

enes

s ot

her t

han

in th

e lo

cal

area

•O

dens

e re

gion

Vol

lsm

ose

is a

lread

y ca

rbon

-ne

utra

l by

2030

and

is a

role

mod

el fo

r si

mila

r reg

ions

in o

ther

par

ts o

f the

cou

ntry

an

d ac

ross

the

EU•

Ode

nse

grow

s at

the

expe

nse

of th

e ot

her

med

ium

-siz

ed to

wns

on

Fune

n, b

ut is

itse

lf in

st

rong

com

petit

ion

and

lose

s ta

lent

to b

oth

Aar

hus

and

Cop

enha

gen

•M

ediu

m le

vel f

or u

rban

isat

ion

and

grow

th.

Rur

al d

istr

icts

and

the

smal

l tow

ns lo

se th

eir

popu

latio

n. T

he m

ediu

m-s

ized

tow

ns in

Fu

nen

stay

as

they

are

and

thei

r dev

elop

men

t oc

curs

in re

latio

n to

Ode

nse’

s•

Stro

ng fo

cus

on g

row

th m

eans

that

all

gree

n tr

ansi

tion

is p

ushe

d to

the

back

grou

nd•

Ode

nse

is ju

st a

big

Dan

ish

city

and

the

city

’s gr

owth

is h

ard

pres

sed

by th

e K

atte

gat f

ixed

lin

k an

d th

at p

art o

f the

dev

elop

men

t goe

s ou

tsid

e of

the

city

and

is lo

cate

d in

the

mor

e sc

enic

par

ts o

f Fun

en o

r out

side

of F

unen

al

toge

ther

•M

ajor

em

igra

tion

of ta

lent

to C

open

hage

n w

hen

stud

ies

are

com

plet

ed•

Publ

ic tr

ansp

ort s

olut

ions

are

mad

e m

ore

effec

tive,

but

priv

ate

mot

orin

g is

prio

ritis

ed

acro

ss F

unen

•Te

chno

logi

cal d

evel

opm

ent i

s dr

iven

by

big

busi

ness

es a

nd is

not

poi

nted

tow

ards

gre

en

tran

sitio

n an

d is

not

fina

ncia

lly s

uppo

rted

by

publ

ic a

utho

ritie

s•

Cen

tral

Ode

nse

is h

ard

pres

sed

that

trad

e is

m

ovin

g ou

t of t

he c

ity

GR

EEN

STA

TE

CIT

YG

REE

N G

UER

ILLA

GR

EEN

NET

WO

RK

SG

REE

N C

OM

PRO

MIS

ES


Matrix for 10 Danish cities in 2050

MEDIUM-SIZED TOWNS (MARKET TOWNS)

Sønderborg Fredericia Middelfart

•U

nder

pre

ssur

e be

caus

e of

its

loca

tion

and

nega

tive

popu

latio

n de

velo

pmen

t•

Lack

s na

tiona

l prio

ritis

ing

of S

ønde

rbor

g an

d th

e So

uthe

rn J

utla

nd re

gion

be

caus

e of

the

effec

tiven

ess

agen

da•

Gre

en tr

ansi

tion:

Hig

h•

Stag

natio

n in

gro

wth

•C

onne

cts

effec

tivel

y w

ith th

e A

arhu

s re

gion

and

incl

uded

in th

e Ea

ster

n Ju

tland

city

str

etch

and

is c

opin

g w

ell

•H

as p

riorit

ised

an

extr

eme

gree

n pu

blic

pol

icy

for m

unic

ipal

bui

ldin

gs

amon

gst o

ther

thin

gs, t

hat i

s at

trac

ting

inte

rnat

iona

l not

ice

•G

reen

tran

sitio

n: H

igh

•H

igh

grow

th

•H

as c

onne

cted

itse

lf to

the

East

ern

Jutla

nd c

ity s

tret

ch a

nd to

Ode

nse

•G

reen

tran

sitio

n: H

igh

•G

row

th

•Lo

ses

sign

ifica

nce

as a

sel

f-su

ffici

ent

tow

n in

the

natio

nal a

nd re

gion

al c

ity

geog

raph

y•

Is p

ut u

nder

pre

ssur

e by

big

city

gro

wth

an

d th

e sm

all l

ocal

tow

ns•

Gre

en tr

ansi

tion

is h

ard

•Lo

ses

its s

igni

fican

ce a

s A

arhu

s an

d O

dens

e ar

e ta

king

bus

ines

s an

d in

habi

tant

s aw

ay•

Is c

halle

nged

by

Mid

delfa

rt, w

hich

is

attr

actin

g m

any

wel

l-edu

cate

d ci

tizen

s•

Gre

en tr

ansi

tion:

Hig

h

•H

as fo

cuse

d lo

ng-t

erm

on

gree

n va

lues

th

at a

ttra

ct w

ell-e

duca

ted

peop

le to

the

tow

n•

Has

spe

cial

ised

its

busi

ness

com

mun

ity

and

attr

acts

sm

alle

r, sp

ecia

lised

gre

en

tech

bus

ines

ses

•G

reen

tran

sitio

n: V

ery

high

•Sø

nder

borg

has

driv

en a

n un

derg

roun

d m

ovem

ent f

or g

reen

tr

ansi

tion

•T

he to

wn

has

crea

ted

its o

wn

gree

n ec

osys

tem

with

man

y lo

cal

initi

ativ

es•

Att

ract

s gr

een

idea

lists

•G

reen

tran

sitio

n: H

igh

•Lo

ses

its s

igni

fican

ce a

s A

arhu

s an

d O

dens

e ar

e ta

king

bus

ines

s an

d in

habi

tant

s aw

ay•

Has

not

bee

n ab

le to

bec

ome

spec

ialis

ed•

Num

ber o

f inh

abita

nts

has

falle

n•

Gre

en tr

ansi

tion:

Med

ium

•Lo

ses

its s

igni

fican

ce a

s A

arhu

s an

d O

dens

e ar

e ta

king

bus

ines

s an

d in

habi

tant

s aw

ay•

Has

not

bee

n ab

le to

bec

ome

spec

ialis

ed•

Num

ber o

f inh

abita

nts

has

falle

n•

Gre

en tr

ansi

tion:

Med

ium

•C

onne

cted

effe

ctiv

ely

to O

dens

e an

d A

arhu

s an

d to

Fle

nsbu

rg-

Ham

burg

by

rail

and

mot

orw

ay•

The

airp

ort d

evel

ops

with

hel

p fr

om b

ig b

usin

esse

s an

d lo

calis

ed

clus

ters

in th

e ar

ea•

Dev

elop

s as

a to

wn

of e

duca

tion

•G

reen

tran

sitio

n is

gen

eral

ly lo

w

how

ever

•C

onne

cted

effe

ctiv

ely

to O

dens

e an

d A

arhu

s an

d to

Fle

nsbu

rg-

Ham

burg

by

rail

and

mot

orw

ay•

Gre

en tr

ansi

tion:

Low

•C

onne

cted

effe

ctiv

ely

to O

dens

e an

d A

arhu

s an

d to

Fle

nsbu

rg-

Ham

burg

by

rail

and

mot

orw

ay•

Gre

en tr

ansi

tion:

Low

GR

EEN

STA

TE

CIT

YG

REE

N G

UER

ILLA

GR

EEN

NET

WO

RK

SG

REE

N C

OM

PRO

MIS

ES

69

MEDIUM-SIZED TOWNS (MARKET TOWNS)

Kalundborg Ringkøbing-Skjern Høje-Taastrup•

Is c

onne

cted

to C

open

hage

n an

d A

arhu

s w

ith th

e ne

w K

atte

gat f

ixed

link

•T

he K

atte

gat f

ixed

link

has

mad

e K

alun

dbor

g an

att

ract

ive

tow

n fo

r co

mm

uter

s•

Gre

en tr

ansi

tion:

Hig

h•

Gro

wth

•U

nder

pre

ssur

e be

caus

e of

loca

tion

and

size

cou

pled

with

lack

ing

effec

tive

conn

ectio

ns, n

ot p

riorit

ised

cro

ss-

natio

nally

•G

reen

tran

sitio

n is

har

d•

Stag

natio

n in

gro

wth

•C

onne

cted

to C

open

hage

n, b

ut lo

ses

its

sign

ifica

nce

annu

ally

as

a se

lf-su

ffici

ent

tow

n ce

ntre

/uni

t•

Gre

en tr

ansi

tion:

Hig

h•

Gro

wth

•W

hen

the

Kat

tega

t fix

ed li

nk d

id n

ot

appe

ar, K

alun

dbor

g sl

owly

lost

its

sign

ifica

nce

•N

umbe

rs o

f inh

abita

nts

decl

inin

g•

Gre

en tr

ansi

tion:

Hig

h

•T

he to

wn

is re

-bra

nded

as

a to

uris

t de

stin

atio

n•

Lose

s si

gnifi

canc

e as

a s

elf-

suffi

cien

t to

wn

in th

e na

tiona

l and

regi

onal

city

ge

ogra

phy

•H

as d

iffic

ulty

att

ract

ing

busi

ness

es to

th

e to

wn

– A

arhu

s an

d A

albo

rg h

ave

bett

er c

ondi

tions

•G

reen

tran

sitio

n: H

igh

•Is

ext

rem

ely

wel

l-con

nect

ed to

C

open

hage

n•

Is a

com

mut

er to

wn

for p

eopl

e w

ho w

ork

in th

e ca

pita

l•

Gre

en tr

ansi

tion:

Hig

h

•H

as c

reat

ed a

car

bon-

neut

ral t

own

by u

sing

long

-ter

m s

trat

egie

s an

d co

oper

atio

n•

Is a

n in

tern

atio

nal b

est p

ract

ice

exam

ple

of a

mod

ern

tow

n w

ith h

igh

qual

ity o

f life

and

gre

en a

war

enes

s

in e

very

thin

g th

at is

don

e•

The

gre

en im

age

attr

acts

bot

h bu

sine

sses

and

inha

bita

nts

to

the

tow

n•

Gre

en tr

ansi

tion:

Med

ium

•N

umbe

r of i

nhab

itant

s ha

s fa

llen

mar

kedl

y af

ter t

he n

ew g

ener

atio

n m

oved

to th

e bi

g ci

ties

•C

onsi

derin

g w

hat t

o do

with

all

the

empt

y ho

uses

, bus

ines

s bu

ildin

gs

and

mun

icip

al b

uild

ings

•G

reen

tran

sitio

n: L

ow

•Lo

ses

sign

ifica

nce

as a

sel

f-su

ffici

ent t

own

in th

e na

tiona

l and

re

gion

al c

ity g

eogr

aphy

•G

reen

tran

sitio

n: M

ediu

m

•Ex

perie

nces

gro

wth

as

a co

mm

uter

to

wn

•C

onne

cts

to A

arhu

s an

d C

open

hage

n an

d ot

her b

ig c

ity

regi

ons

by a

com

bina

tion

of b

ridge

an

d tr

ain

conn

ectio

n ov

er K

atte

gat

•G

reen

tran

sitio

n: L

ow

•H

as m

anag

ed to

att

ain

good

traff

ic

conn

ectio

ns to

Aar

hus

in p

artic

ular

•G

row

s by

att

ract

ing

the

inha

bita

nts

and

busi

ness

es fr

om th

e m

any

smal

ler t

owns

in th

e vi

cini

ty•

Gre

en tr

ansi

tion:

Low

•Is

eve

n be

tter

con

nect

ed to

the

capi

tal r

egio

n•

Gro

ws

by a

ttra

ctin

g in

habi

tant

s an

d bu

sine

sses

•G

reen

tran

sitio

n: L

ow

GR

EEN

STA

TE

CIT

YG

REE

N G

UER

ILLA

GR

EEN

NET

WO

RK

SG

REE

N C

OM

PRO

MIS

ES

71

7.1 2050: MARKET AND CIVILIAN SOCIETY ARE IN CONTROLIn 2050, green transition in Denmark is characterised by individual market players and citizens’ groups taking responsibility and defining targets and conditions. There is an absence of state control and common overview and coordination. The result is an enormous variety with thousands of larger and smaller local projects, which separately make a difference, but do not integrate or keep to anything other than realising their own goal.

The backdrop for this purely market dominated bottom-up approach to green transition is the political system’s drawn out inability to act. This is international, in the EU and in Denmark.

On the international agenda and in the EU, climate issues are only heard every six months and often in connection with the proviso of how to avert the consequences of more unstable weather and more climate refugees.

The discussions never lead to a consensus on common targets, let alone any form of binding agreements. At the same time, the international agenda is characterised by a high level of conflict with a series of regional conflicts in Eastern Europe, the Middle East, Asia and Africa that engage Russia, the EU, China and the USA.

In a world without targets and means for green transition, and with focus on other problems, there is not much of an opportunity for a little country like Denmark to go it alone and be more ambitious than the rest of the world. And so, it is not the approach Danish politicians have chosen. The state’s leader role phased out during the 20s and by 2050 it lacks focus and action.

It has an immediate effect on business invest-ment and innovation which begins avoiding the cleantech sector. It means that green technology is not on the list of biggest Danish export groups in 2050, despite there being substantial interest from large city development projects in countries like China, India, Brazil and many of the African growth economies.

A green GDP and the circular economy is still something that can be discussed, but there is no political intention to go in that direction for Denmark as a whole.

The largest cities attract growth, but it is not followed by high ambitions for green transition. Congestion, lack of housing, water, energy and other challenges linked to with population growth in the larger cities are tackled poorly locally and without large public investment in infrastructure, construction, water, waste or energy supply.

7 . Green guerilla



GREEN GUERILLA

It diminishes population growth and economic growth for businesses that cannot be absorbed due to the lack of thinking about the big picture in regards to green transition. Technological development is therefore more anarchistic, and it is diverse in the way it is distributed and used both in and outside of Denmark.

Construction is spread out and varied, but not always green. Energy supply is large-scale and outdated with a relatively low level of renewable energy due to a lack of state ambition. It has, however, created the foundation for a simmering revolt in the form of independent initiatives from a few large businesses and active citizens’ groups. Special recycling facilities connected to large businesses locally and small local windmill and solar panels are examples of initiatives that come from the bottom. But it is disconnected from the existing public energy system and without state support solutions or economic incentives. It is carried solely by the wishes of the market players in the individual projects that make a difference to the local climate and environment.

Without cross-national solutions in the areas of transport and energy, the medium-sized towns are disconnected from the growth in the big cities and more or less lose their significance. Many of the local initiatives find their place in the progressive quarters of the big cities with a high ratio of young, resourceful talent or in the small towns with large amenity value, committed locals and small businesses who can gather interest in and capital for their projects. The medium-sized towns, the classic market towns, find it difficult competing with both the large cities and the small towns and they are seriously trapped.


International development out of balanceThe trends concerning liberalisation, fragmentation and individualisation that can be found in Denmark are global. There are many initiatives for green transition, but the initiatives are not coordinated. As a result the development towards green transition is not consistent or continuous over time.

Some regions of Russia and North Africa are ”global grey holes” with a strong dependency on fossil fuels. Other regions, including several in China, are almost carbon-neutral. Regions in other countries are inspired by these world leaders and have, in some cases, had success becoming green. When something is large-scale, leadership is often lacking when it comes to transforming the whole country.

After several unsuccessful climate top meetings, international cooperation concerning climate and the environment broke down in the 20s. There is some trade with emissions rights, which increases the differences between regions and countries.

Development ”on average” moves slowly towards a green world, but global warming continues. Proactive green areas/regions manage to remain resistant and defy strong weather and high water levels. Other regions have emptied of people.

In 2050, there is no clear agenda with clearly defined questions ordered by common importance. Instead there are a multitude of questions that are very important for some, but irrelevant to others.


Growth and GDP development are generally high on the agenda in many countries and regions as there is strong competition between different parts of the world, with each one wanting to protect their own citizens first.

Development cannot be run from ChristiansborgEven though Danish society is green in certain areas, it is on a case-basis, where ‘exotic’ examples of local green transition can be found. This is in regions and quarters that were previously profiled and specialised in going green. Green transition is therefore strongly differentiated. In a few areas a total green

transition and carbon-neutrality happens, but other regions have more or less stood still since the 2010s.

Several small towns have come a long way in their green transition due to strong local initiative. But in the medium-sized and big cities there is still a deep dependency on “black” energy supply and transport forms.

The predominant challenge for Denmark and most city regions is to protect their economic competitiveness. There are different ways of doing this.

FIGURE 7.1Critical factors, Green guerilla 2050

















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Diverse cities and regional developmentUrbanisation continues strongly but with a certain amount of ”lifestyle movement” from the big cities to smaller, sleepy towns. Some of the medium-sized towns have also had an increase in population again. Amongst other things, there is a green wave of former big city dwellers that have moved out to Denmark’s carbon-neutral towns Kalundborg and Sønderborg, that have both worked intensely to realise and brand themselves as centres of green transition and quality of life (beyond growth). In Sønderborg, there has been success in supporting a green underground movement, and the town creates its own green eco-systems with many local initiatives. The good initiatives are kept within the town’s boundaries, however.

While the big cities rumble on with all their advantages, there is a large difference in the groups of small or medium-sized towns as to how well they are doing. Some of the small towns experience growth in line with their change to a specialised society, where they have prioritised differently and therefore attract very different types of people.

Local products are popular in the big city just like in the smaller towns, and several parts of the city are self-sufficient when it comes to foodstuffs. Big city centres are getting bigger and smaller – at the same time. Whilst more and more live in the city in general, the bigger cities tend to divide up into smaller quarters. These quarters are very different and attract different sub-cultures.

The capital has become multi-centred, where different lifestyle groups have each a centre for ”their” openhagen, and the differing basic values make their mark on behaviour. Nørrebro in Copenhagen has prioritised a green transition course of action and is focused on

creating opportunities for ”guerilla gardening”, while Frederiksberg doesn’t prioritise green transition to a high degree.

The difference in living standards between the cities and the quarters continues to widen.

What is in it for me?After a lengthy period of low economic growth, many countries in Europe, including Denmark, decided to introduce comprehensive privatisation to strengthen competitiveness and reduce the public expenditure. Common obligations through a comprehensive welfare state were generally considered to be unaffordable in Europe. Instead there was confidence that individuals and businesses had the ability to, and would take responsibility for, creating prosperity for themselves, and through this also for others.

Society is more individualistic in 2050 than ever before. Behaviour is marked by an ”anything goes” culture, with many smaller groups and sub-cultures with completely different lifestyles. There is a high degree of tolerance for diversity and variety is extensive. Denmark is a multicultural country with a high level of immigrants following the liberalisation of movement in the EU in the 2020s. There is vast material inequality between the different groups as politics is not designed to create economic parity.

The Danes identify themselves primarily through taking part in shared interest communities. Danish club life is practically non-existent and looks nothing like what it did in the 10s. instead, people organise things informally, temporarily and spontaneously with the motto ”what’s in it for me?”, where organisations compete with each other for casual individuals. Big co-operative projects (public-private cooperation, OPP) are


conspicuous by their absence. The party election system is changed to an individual election system.

The education system has become fragmented on all levels with a high occurrence of very specialised units and prioritising of informal and self-taught skills. Private schools and private universities are widespread and offer different lines of education.

Many people have taken personal responsibility for their own education and do not take part in the formal education system.

The many wasted technological opportunitiesConstant technological development and its diffusion is a powerful driver for the international economy. Technological development has many facets and happens quickly, but the lack of clear political rules blocks breakthroughs and uniform technological solutions. Solutions on a smaller scale are profitable and have many applications, but larger solutions do not spread as wide.

Land use, in particular local supply, plays a large role in technical development. But ”cultivation” does not always look the same as in 2010s.

Small private research institutes, NGOs, towns and citizens’ networks drive technological development forward, which means that the new technology can primarily be used in a few specific networks, quarters or cities.

Welfare state and job market under pressureAdvanced robot technology and automation has revolutionised the economy and world as a workplace. Many jobs have been digitalised, and large groups in society are out of the work market – but new job functions have been formed.

The welfare society is under great pressure. Publicly financed and publicly driven businesses and institutions have been quickly phased out in line with individualised Danes feeling less bound to look after their fellow citizens’ welfare.

Example of decentralised private energy production – Arla’s biogas facility

Already in 2015, Arla began a biogas facility close to two production locations in Videbæk. The facility produced 31 m3 mill. biogas/year, equivalent to 16.4 m3 mill. natural gas. In other words, equivalent to the heating usage of 12,000 houses. The facility was a part of Arla’s strategy that 50% of the company’s energy usage in 2020 should come from renewable energy sources.

The facility was expanded in 2031 in order to double capacity as the demand for biogas was still rising.

Arla’s initiative illustrates a broader trend that businesses should take the lead to reach their own targets on green transition – independent of the central market’s actions.

Source: http://www.arla.com/da/Baredygtighed/Miljo-strategi-2020/Biogasanlag/

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The Danish business community has many facets and is a strong entrepreneurial society. Innovation is strong, but opportunities to create larger, successful businesses are lacking. Denmark is in many ways a country with many small, highly specialised businesses.

Single city regions have cultivated their own strengths, and they compete in the marketplace, especially nationwide. Smaller city regions experience a strong development thanks to their proximity to businesses and entrepreneurs.

Divided energy supplyDivision of energy supplies marks Denmark in 2050. Parts of the energy supply have reached total transition, whilst others use old fossil fuel technologies. The good initiatives driven by individuals, NGOs and businesses lack integration with the existing central energy system. For example, many large businesses produce their own energy, but it cannot be integrated with the rest of the energy net, which has not had the technological upgrades needed in order to support it.

For those that can afford it or live in the right region, it is possible for individual households to be self-sufficient with electricity. In smaller towns especially, the roofs of the houses are covered with solar panels that, together with private wind energy, is enough to make a household self-sufficient energy-wise.

Energy is used based on the individual’s or the household’s needs without much consideration for what is sustainable for the country as a whole. Large sub-cultures have reached green transition on the basis of better energy usage with the aim of better existence later on. They do not, however, try on a larger scale to influence others to transform their energy usage.

The car survives, but is challenged sporadicallyThe car is the preferred form of transport, but it can be found in many different versions – electric, hydrogen, hybrid, amongst others. These drive side by side, but create big congestion challenges as integration across the board is lacking. It goes hand in hand with the prediction the EU made 35 years ago, which showed an increase in private motoring through to 2050. See figure 7.2.

FIGURE 7.2Passenger transport (g/km)

Source: EU energy transport and GHG emission trends 2050


Public transport Private motoring

In the medium-sized and large cities, the bicycle has taken over the urban landscape. Parallel with the bicycle are other forms of individual transport, but because the infrastructure is neither uniform nor optimal to support them, they remain used primarily in sub-groups.

Public transport has not developed since public investments have not been a priority. In some city regions profiled on this, normal transport options can be found, which can be booked to take groups of people on a custom-made trip via an booking system. For those that can afford a private jet, it is the preferred form of transport. Kastrup has lost its function as a central airport and has been replaced by smaller local airports.

Disintegration can also be seen in business transport, where diesel trucks and the latest electric cars drive side by side depending on whether the business is profiled as a ”green” business or more orientated towards price competition. A large part of goods transport that was once done by truck has been replaced by delivery drones that deliver goods directly to households. A lack of regulation means that the drones are more common in some regions than others.

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7.3 TIMELINE FOR GREEN GUERILLA

These events that have lead through to the society we have in 2050 all have the common feature that they are driven completely by the market and civil society and practically in revolt

against a state incapable of making decisions. They are uncoordinated and generally out of line with each other and with the traditional solutions that exist for historic reasons.





Democratic crisis

Political inertia and a low electoral turnout to general and local elections of under 50%

Challenges in congestion

As there is a need for integration across the different forms of transport, congestion in the cities is an increasing problem that slows down mobility and growth.

Strong innovation

Open source, open data, big data and free data drive the innovation revolution where a group of small innovative businesses put pressure on the multinationals in all branches. Small is beautiful again.

Energy diversity

The number of solar panels for private households rises, as does local wind power. Locals take even more responsibility for their own energy supply. This puts the national energy agreement under pressure.

Unsuccessful climate top meeting

Disagreement between states leads to a climate top meeting. They fail to reach a binding agreement.

Public education under pressure

The dismantling of education institutions because of the challenges to find financing and radical change in the job market. Informal qualifications in focus.

More citizens’ initiatives and business models for transport

Car-pooling, car sharing and the like are attractive for the citizens. It puts the public transport system under pressure.

New transport agreement

The agreement on TogfondenDK (Train Fund DK) is broken as it is seen to be too expensive and too collective and one-sided.

Privatisation wave after the crisis of 2008-2016

Denmark lowers progressive taxation and social expenditure in order to make the economy more competitive.

Local autonomy

Cities raise their self-sufficiency at the cost of the state. Economic growth is highly prioritised in the cities.


Kalundborg, Sønderborg and Copenhagen carbon-neutral

The cities are carbon-neutral after many years of effort.

Energy self-sufficient

30% of Danish households are energy self-sufficient.

Public education under pressure

The dismantling of education institutions because of the challenges to find financing and radical change in the job market. Informal qualifications in focus.

Urban land use in the city

Some quarters raise production of their crops. Vertical farming is common.

Global workforce

The workforce is global, with lots of movement between geographical regions and large wage differences.

More citizens’ initiatives and business models for transport

Car-pooling, car sharing and the like are attractive for the citizens. It puts the public transport system under pressure.

Public routes are dismantled

The consequence of a reduction in passengers on public transport – private players take control without public money.

Social inequality increases

Social inequality increases: large differences between towns, city quarters, regions and ethnic groups.

Urbanisation

Continued urbanisation but an increase in population in certain small towns and rural districts that have specialised successfully.

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8.1 2050: GROWTH FOR THE STATE AND THE COMMUNITY In 2050 the state will be strong, supported by the return of collective values into society. The Danes do not see CO2 emissions and climate change as a threat. Instead, several decades of low growth, gradual wealth and welfare reductions and a general rise in the international conflict level have made the Danes stand together with a strong state and nationwide, collective solutions that prioritise economic development and growth more than green transition. The same trends and patterns can be seen in the majority of other EU and OECD countries, including China.

Through to 2050 global NGOs have tried again and again to put green transition on the agenda but with no luck since new international and geopolitical conflicts formed the agenda. Unease in Russia and Eastern Europe that started with Russia’s annexing of Crimea and the unrest in Ukraine in 2014 continued long into the 2020s. Not until 2024 were negotiation and political stability between Russia, EU and USA finally put on the agenda.

Following this ”Russian crisis”, a widespread wish arose in the majority of EU countries that they did not want to be dependent on gas from Russia. As a consequence of this there was a rise in the demand for fossil fuels and Denmark once again began investing heavily in fuel extraction in the North Sea. The same trend towards a new fossil fuel strategy was also seen in other Western countries, and the USA was seen as role model with their successful extraction of shale gas.

At the same time, the years from 2015–2040 were heavily influenced by a number of global and international crises and conflicts. Several of these were caused by climate change that caused mass migration and a stream of refugees together with a battle for resources as large areas became uninhabitable. The reaction to this in Denmark and other countries more fortunate with their climate was economic support to the affected regions and helping to prepare other countries for the incoming refugees. The development is not connected politically with the man-made climate change. Other challenges are seen as more important.

With a strong state and cross-national and collective solutions that prioritise economic development throughout the country, there is no focus on green transition. Regardless, by 2050, Denmark has reached a 60% reduction in CO2 and a 60% independence of fossil fuels. The reason for this is continued development and implementation of a central energy system for the large cities based on district heating, natural gas, combined heat and power stations, windmills on land and turbines at sea, large-scale solar power and municipal waste systems.

8 . Green compromises


Collective values and lifestyles dominatehow people relate to other groups and to society as a whole

GRØNNE KOMPROMISSER















There is focus on connecting the medium-sized and small towns to the capital, Aarhus, Odense and Aalborg so opportunities for growth can reach the whole country. The consequence of this has been that urbanisation trends, with the until now widespread migration and growth in the largest cities, lose some of their power. It is not enough to stop the urbanisation, however. The largest cities still continue to grow, but the emigration from the smaller cities is less dramatic, and they receive the inhabitants from the small towns, which generally recede.

The low green transition ambition of the politicians sits well with the wishes of the majority. Many new buildings are constructed, spread out, different and rarely green. Energy supply is large-scale. Focus continues on burning fuel and distant heating with a low level

of recycling and renewable energy. Transport is both public and cross-national, but without a preference concerning private motorists. Hybrid cars are normal, but electric cars have not had the breakthrough that was expected in the 2010s. The Danish business community is comprised mainly of small businesses and the occasional large one. They are located over the entire country, but with a tendency to be concentrated in the major regions around the capital, Aarhus, Odense and Aalborg.


The international climate agenda is downgradedEU, USA and China are the dominant powers in 2050. Russia has not yet recovered following the fiasco in Crimea and in Ukraine. The

FIGURE 8.1Critical factors, Green compromises 2050




occupation of these regions came with a high price tag and were eventually given up on after many years of Russian recession. Ukraine – including Crimea – can now celebrate the 15th anniversary of their liberation.

Economic growth in line with the GDP target is at the top of the global agenda along with conflict management between the major global powers. NGOs are working globally, as well as locally, to put the issue of green transition on the agenda, but time after time new international and geopolitical conflicts hijack the agenda. Conflicts and the immediate need for problem resolution have been partly caused by climate change, that causes mass migration and streams of refugees because areas are beginning to be barren or flooded.

Green transition is an old, persistent dream for some, but far back in the consciousness for the majority.

A breakthrough is hindered by a common feeling that green transition is not cost-effective. Adaptation is prefered to fundamental change. Economists agree that it is more profitable to give up the regions that are no longer inhabitable.

Therefore, on a global level, no consensus has been reached about the importance of green transition. In the OECD’s statement on the structure of global energy, fossil fuel use is more than 75%, just like the OECD projected as early as 2014, see figure 8.2.

Growth – growth and more growthGreen transition is given a lower priority in Denmark because of the more pressing problem concerning sustainable economic growth, climate refugees and payment for public services following the economic recession, amongst other things.

FIGURE 8.2Global energy mix 2050

Source: OECD environmental outlook 2050

Conservative and national collective values dominate citizens’ behaviour and the politics. Green transition is therefore not a common focus for citizens and politicians. For many, other problems are more pressing. Above all else, the national policy of wanting to strengthen growth and the economic development together with fighting rising unemployment is dominant.

There are some groups that have an interest in green transition. Following global climate and environmental disasters, De Grønne (the Greens) have reached 15% of votes in the two most recent parliamentary elections. But the Venstre (Denmark’s LiberaL Party), Dansk Folkeparti (Danish People’s Party) and De Radikale (The Danish Social Liberal Party) govern in a large coalition in order to lift economic growth. Therefore, the Greens have relatively little influence.

0 = Low degree, 1 = Lesser degree, 2 = Some degree, 3 = High degree

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Fossil RE Nuclear and others

The big cities grow regardlessIt is the larger cities that grow and are the driving force in economic development, even though it is nationwide initiatives, support and redistribution that maintain life in the small and medium-sized towns. Despite public initiatives and support systems, people move for employment and better access to private services in the bigger cities.

People are also anticipating what will happen on the weather front and are moving in good time to regions that can cope with warmer, wetter and more extreme weather. Outside of Denmark, there are whole cities that dwindle, not least those in Southern Europe and around the Mediterranean. There is pressure on Scandinavian cities to take a global responsibility and open borders to immigration, which part of the population is against.

The largest cities are structured to create maximum efficiency, but there has been insufficient foresight to take into account the climate changes and their effects. There are opportunities to set some of the larger projects in motion.

For example, Aalborg has built a new area with tower block gardens that help with indoor environments, irrigation systems and supplying the inhabitants with vegetables.

Denmark for the people In Denmark, the conservative and often populist currents have dominated the last decade. When unrest began to take hold across the world, stabile growth was what was strived for more than anything else, not least to meet the demands of the aging population. Despite some resistance from certain groups, Denmark took on a great deal of responsibility by

accepting large groups of migrants, primarily as an opportunity to create population growth in Denmark and to balance the high percentage of elderly in its population. What is Danish is seen as ’right’, and this creates antagonism between ’old’ and ’new’ Danes.

Denmark has become more centralised and top-down orientated since the 20th century. A few large cities and organisations dominate and control development. International cooperation within the UN and EU is important, and Denmark follows central directives to a high degree.

Club activities thrive, especially in the big organisations, and symbolise our capacity to lift society as a whole. Occasionally there are conflicts, for example like when union LO works primarily for job growth, whilst the environmental movement works for green growth and green transition.

The state and big business control the technologyLarge international firms drive technological development. Above all, development of big data has resulted in having more control over the climate changes, in that there is earlier observation and registration of coming floods, hurricanes and more. Technological development also assists protection against catastrophes, but we have given up trying to reduce global warming.

Automation has created greater efficiency – but it has been so strong that large groups of people are left out of the job market. The large global businesses have more or less a monopoly on technological development, which leads to them dictating which technologies are used in society. The politicians acknowledge their dependence on these giants. In particular,


Google and the Chinese BiDaiXio dominate digitalisation. Ray Kurzweil, who as early as 2005 predicted that the ’singularity’ would breakthrough in 2045, turned out not to be right. It is true that people and machines have moved towards each other with great strides since the beginning of the century, but people still have the upper hand.

Continual dependence on fossil fuelsThe Danish energy system is a hybrid between fossil fuels and partially green energy forms. Offshore wind turbines produce considerable amounts of power, but a one-sided focus on this energy source makes energy supplies vulnerable when there is no wind. Denmark has had success with its natural gas venture and has replaced most of its coal based power, though there are still coal plants that support energy production. Biomass became a scarce resource internationally and too expensive to burn, especially when the foodstuffs question that followed on from climate change became important.

New extraction methods and new areas with fossil fuels have opened up for several centuries of using fossil fuels. But the prices have risen greatly due to the rise in demand. The huge rise in demand for Danish and Norwegian gas that came after the Russian crisis, resulted in even more use of fossil fuels. Russia is no longer the dominant supplier of energy that it once was, however. In the EU, we are now deeply dependent on imported energy from the mega-corporations of North America that are extracting shale gas in the Arctic. In that way, the EU’s prediction of our dependence on imported energy turned out to be right. For more than 60% of the energy used in the EU it is the case that we are dependent on imports from outside the EU.

FIGURE 8.3Dependence on imported energy in the EU, 2010 – 2050

Source: EU energy transport and GHG emission trends in 2050.

Consumer behaviour is controlled by economic assumptions. The majority buy energy where it is cheapest, which in many cases is the black energy.

Economic growth obstructing green transitionThe traditional GDP target is still a leading directive for the welfare of a nation. Strong international competition on price and policy initiatives that focus on economic growth, regardless of how it is reached, obstruct green transition. A classic understanding of economics gives shorter economic cycles and more structural crises in OECD countries. Idea and knowledge economics dominate the

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successful countries. Denmark, too, has to a large extent become a knowledge economy, which means that a lot of the industry has disappeared or become automated. The Danish companies with distinct international profiles are successful and create demand with local subcontractors.

Big city regions are the driving force for development and growth. A centralised location means that damage caused by climate change might be minimised and this creates an economic drive and development. The small towns are dependent on the large ones; indirectly because it is where the users and authorities are, but also directly because of the regional redistribution system.

For example, Ringkøbing-Skjern has formed a tight connection to Aarhus and has managed to attract many citizens from the smaller surrounding towns that are closing down.

Now twice as many cars as peopleInvestment in the infrastructure has primarily been aimed at public transport. The European rail networks has been even better integrated and developed further, so citizens can travel between cities more quickly and effectively.

An example of this would be Høje-Taastrup, where the link up to Copenhagen has been extended so much that Høje-Taastrup is considered an integrated part of the capital. This has been good for Høje-Taastrup, which now

has a rising number of inhabitants, and more businesses choosing to move their headquarters there in part because of the good connection.

A European travel card has been introduced. Digitalisation has helped make public transport an effective, relatively cheap form of transport, throughout the entire country. Two years ago, King Frederik opened the Kattegat bridge, which is a combined train and road bridge. The connection had been talked about since the beginning of the century, but because of a clear decision in the Danish parliament 23 years ago, it has only now been completed. Global private transport has risen sharply, mostly due to the dramatic rise in global population.

Business transport is still deeply dependent on roads for goods delivery as short-sighted financial considerations have made it difficult to convert to alternative forms of transport. The Danish shipping industry contributes greatly to the Danish economy.

Kastrup is a strong and important junction for both private and business transport. Air transport is an important form of transport where few large companies dominate traffic.

Protection rather than preventionClimate and environmental questions have a tendency to be politicians’ bad conscience. Since the turn of the century there have been many good intentions, but on the whole our behaviour is driven by a short-term economic


rationale. Green solutions are seen as being many times more expensive than the black ones – at least in the beginning. The long-term political indications and control systems are lacking, which means that businesses are not willing to take a risk on green techniques. Green transition is therefore downgraded and seen as an ’alternative’ wave – old, but persistent.

Despite this, there is a growing support for a lasting development, and the Greens now have 15% of the seats in parliament. But we have not been able to put focus on sustainability, and Danish society has given up on large parts of the climate work – instead focusing on protecting Denmark from the effects of the climate.

There is a low degree of green transition. Large international conflicts have replaced green issues on the agenda. Sporadic national initiatives, though ones without focus and long-term strategies, have only managed to reduce greenhouse gases by 50% from the 1990 level (primarily driven by market forces).

A lot has happened since the start of this century. Well-developed technology has been introduced where it is of good use. There is a constant aim to minimise costs and get new technological solutions introduced as soon as they prove to be profitable. So despite there not having been much focus on green transition, development continues regardless. The problem is that the political leadership is too weak, which means that the resources that can be used are too little too late. And they are unevenly distributed!

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8.3 TIMELINE FOR GREEN COMPROMISES

The many events that lead us to a Denmark of Green compromises in 2050 are all characterised by a high growth ambition and focus on cross-

national problems and collective values. The green transition ambition is low amongst politicians, businesses and Danes in general.





Focus on growth and conflict solving

International focus on growth and conflict solutions make the challenges of the climate a low priority issue.

Environmental refugees

The first environmental refugees are taken into Denmark

Decision on the Kattegat fixed link

Parliament decides to carry out the Kattegat fixed link with a combined train and road bridge

Public transport in Europe

An agreement on a better European train networks is accepted by the EU

Green industries encounter problems

Danish green industries begin to encounter problems; no support from the state

Finance law 2025

The debate topic for the finance law in 2025 is whether Denmark should make further attempts to become a net exporter of gas

Google buys Apple

Google is the world’s largest and most powerful business. Through their acquisition of Apple, they become the dominant force in the information market

A boom for Danish fossil gas

Following the embargo against Russia’s fossil gas, Danish extraction in the North Sea reaches new heights

EU sets new targets

EU pressures for a reduction in CO2 emissions. The old 20-20-20 target was reached in 2019, but there is no specific new target until 2023: to reduce CO2 by 50% through to 2050, the so-called 50-50 target

New large-scale ventures

In order to handle the need for energy the government looks for new large-scale solutions, including fossil gas. A new power station opens in Aarhus.

Scrap bonus for buildings and rural towns

The politicians pass a scrap bonus for unsellable and abandoned houses, which makes it attractive to pull down houses


Driverless vehicles I

The car revolution – driverless vehicles are introduced in cities

Continued urbanisation

Seven out of ten live in the larger Danish cities

The Kattegat fixed link is opened

King Frederik X opens the Kattegat fixed link on June 10th 2048

Driverless vehicles II

It is forbidden to drive a car. Only driverless cars are allowed

Public transport in Europe

An agreement on a better European train networks is accepted by the EU

Google buys Apple

Google is the world’s largest and most powerful business. Through their acquisition of Apple, they become the dominant force in the information market

New large-scale ventures

In order to handle the need for energy the government looks for new large-scale solutions, including fossil gas. A new power station opens in Aarhus.

Nordic nuclear power

Denmark opens discussions on nuclear power with Sweden. Environmental groups are furious

BiDaiXio sues Google

BiDaiXio sues Google in the EU’s monopoly court. They claim that Google has broken the rules in the Chinese market. The companies reach a settlement.

Green accounts disappear

Despite several years of trying, attempts to create an alternative target for growth and development are given up

Scrap bonus for buildings and rural towns

The politicians pass a scrap bonus for unsellable and abandoned houses, which makes it attractive to pull down houses

Large coalition

After the general election in 2043, the Social Democrats and Venstre (The Danish Liberal Party) form a large coalition

Retirement age raised to 75 years

To ensure growth, retirement age is raised to 75 years

89

Matrix for the four scenariosSOCIAL POLITICAL AGENDA

AND DEVELOPMENTDEVELOPMENT IN THE CITIES

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93

The scenarios described in this project are not intended to show us the choices and directions we should take in relation to how green areas should be organised in the future. But they give a pretty clear idea of the strategic dilemmas Denmark and Danish cities are facing. A good strategy for the future should consider the uncertainties that exist and make decisions accordingly.

In the following, we have compiled the strategic dilemmas for green transition in three areas, and we put forward a number of suggestions as to what these dilemmas will mean for Denmark and its cities:

1. Regardless of everything, we must dramatically reduce the use of fossil fuels through to 2050. How do we do that without major economical, social and political consequences?

2. Technological innovation is essential for green areas, but what support mechanisms are possible?

3. Quality of life does not just mean economic growth and technological innovation, but what are the consequences of choosing quality of life without, or with reduced, economic growth?

Use of fossil fuels must be reducedNo matter how the future looks, Denmark must considerably reduce its fossil fuel usage through to 2050. It is a challenge it shares with the rest of the world, and it involves every Danish city.

If the re-organisation of, in particular, our energy systems and transport systems is not planned and implemented with great care, it can have an enormous economic, social and

political negative impact. Taxes on fossil fuels are an important public source of income. They are used to finance everything from the welfare state, education, pensions, childcare and business support to new train connections and roads and new offshore wind farms, indeed, everything.

When we save on energy or use a larger amount of renewable energy with lower taxes or direct subsidies, it affects the state’s income. The same goes for the biomass that in some scenarios is planned for as an essential part of our future’s energy supply. When the global request for biomass for both energy and foodstuff production rises, it can put a growing pressure on the global biomass production, which will cause prices to rise. Again, with large consequences for the state’s income and expenses.

There is not just one way to plan and implement a successful re-organisation of our energy supply and transport systems. In the scenario descriptions we see that society chooses two radically different economic approaches that will have a major significance for economic incentives in society and consequently for all other choices that are made.

In two of the scenarios, Green guerilla and Green compromises, choices are made based on a classic economic growth model. In the two other scenarios, Green state and Green networks, the international community has implemented a new economic model with a circular economy and a green GNP. Depending on which values and behaviour come to dominate and which people come to lead the changes, the initiatives and organisational aspects will look very different. The politicians who will be making the decisions need to be aware of this.

9 . Strategic dilemmas regarding green transition

Green technological innovation is keyTechnological innovation has always played an enormous role in the development of society and of business. It will do the same for green transition in the future. New green technology can easily be thought of as a game changer for a green transition. For the same reason, we have green technological development and interaction with politics as one of the two strategic axes of uncertainty for the scenarios. To be able to develop and implement green technology on a broad scale would therefore have great impact on the reduction of CO2 emissions and for the green transition.

When it comes to transport that contributes a fifth of all CO2 emissions, it will make all the difference for the reduction of CO2 and the preservation of mobility in and between cities that technological innovation develops, and not least is implemented, so the electricity developed from wind power and solar panels can be stored and later used effectively in batteries and electric cars.

Construction is another important area to look at, especially as buildings are responsible for 40% of Denmark’s energy usage. In order to achieve the target of drastic CO2 reduction, the construction industry and its customers must develop, test and utilise new technologies and material solutions.

It can be assumed that the developing, testing and implementation of green technologies in the future vil have a large significance to business, and therefore also societal, economies. Denmark has several leading business clusters in the area of green tech. They are based on a strong triple helix cooperation between the authorities, businesses and knowledge institutions. These collaborations are especially strong in the big

cities where the talent, the innovative green tech businesses and the universities are.

The support of new green technology development and its implementation cannot usually take place from the top down via public prioritising and dominant solutions from big business. If Denmark is to be ready for transition, we should certainly work on bottom-up development from decentralised market operators and local technology clusters. It can be just as effective to import green technologies and solutions from abroad than to try to be market leaders and develop our own clusters and products themselves. On the other hand, it means a great deal for business development and economic growth with what is generated from green tech development.

We can also expect that green technological innovation is unevenly distributed between cities and sections of the population. The big wave of technological changes will hit the big cities first, which will face the biggest challenges by absorbing urbanisation and the strongest growth and influx of residents. The new technology will affect everything from mobility, construction, energy usage and waste handling. That is: everything that is connected to the development of smart cities.

In smaller cities or outside of the cities, the chal-lenges will be different. Here it will be about only implementing decentralised technologies after they become available so that mobility, a modern lifestyle and a good quality of life can be kept.

It will be of great significance which political support system is set up in regards to taxes, economic support, rules and targets for supporting green technological innovation in the major cities compared to the smaller towns. At the same time, it is important which


autonomy is allowed so that cities, regions and even individuals can make their own decisions about technology. As we show in the scenarios, society’s movement towards collective or individual choice could be of enormous significance.

The strategic dilemma is not only about whether it is necessary to treat big, medium and smaller cities and towns differently, but also whether it should maybe be permitted as it creates a greater boundary between more or less well-off sections of society, rich or poor. New green technologies are, to begin with, attractive to all, but the less well-off will not have the money to be able to get the most out of new green technologies. They do not have the same access to the internet, nor the latest mobile phones, maybe cannot be approved for a carpool or for a smart housing concept in the newest, hottest part of town with a view over the harbour. Which choices do we make there? How much will collective vs individual value dominate and how much top-down vs. bottom-up will be realised in the upcoming years?

Quality of life is more than just economic growthEconomic growth and rising CO2 emissions are historically two sides of the same coin. Even though we in Denmark have come a long way in our green transition, and have managed to maintain a growth in the GDP as well, one way for society could also be to accept less material wealth, lower income and therefore a lower economic growth as a way towards green transition. Such a way is instead characterised by happiness and quality of life being measured by less time pressure and fewer queues to work, more quality time, more swapping and sharing and less individual consumption, more nature and less system, more autonomy and less collective control.

This choice is described in the section about the citizens’ groups in Sønderborg in the Green guerilla scenario. It is not unrealistic, when you look at the debates that have taken place whilst considering the scenarios. It is also a choice that can win wider backing from the people, especially those in smaller or medium-sized towns, through to 2050. The greater focus on quality of life over economic growth can be connected to age or social standing. One hypothesis could be that the less a section of the population is connected to the job market, businesses or fast technological development, the more there would be a wish to prioritise “quality of life” with more quality time and less consumption. If this hypothesis holds up, it would also be necessary to look at the demographic profiles of the Danish cities and their development. The differences between Sønderborg and Copenhagen could be a reflection on what has the backing of the people and what is realistic.

What you need to be aware of politically in relation to the quality of life choice is that there are two possible consequences that some will accept and some will not. Firstly, that can mean that technological innovation, and that includes green transition, becomes delayed because there is no need for new technology solutions. It can also mean that improvements are not undertaken, which would make it a more expensive option in the long-term.

It must be emphasised that these are dilemmas heading towards 2050 that we are talking about. That is to say that it is something that we will not see the answers to in the next 3–5 years. It takes time. But how much time do we have? How long should it be allowed to take?

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BOOKS

Florida, R. (2007): The flight of the creative class: the new global competition for talent. New York, Collins.

Heijden, K. A. v. d. (1996): Scenarios: the art of strategic conversation. Chichester, Wiley.

Lindgren, M. and H. Bandhold (2009): Scenario Planning – Revised and Updated Edition London, Palgrave Macmillan.

Lindgren, M (2012): 21st Century Management – Leadership and Innovation in the Thought Economy, London, Palgrave Macmillan

Normann, R. (2001): När kartan förändrar affärslandskapet. Stockholm, Liber.

REPORTS ETC.

Arbejderbevægelsens Erhvervsråd (2011): Stigende social ulighed i levetiden

Biorefining Alliance (2012): Danmark i et globalt biobaseret samfund

Centre on Sustainable Consumption and Production (CSCP) et al. (2012); Scenarios for sustainable lifestyles 2050

Cowi et al: Byernes rolle i klimastrategien: Virkemidler for forebyggelse af klimaforandringer

CSCP (2012): Scenarios for Sustainable Lifestyles 2050: From Global Champions to Local Loops, Centre on Sustainable Consumption and Production

Danmarks Statistik (2013): Grønne nationalregnskaber og det grønne BNP – Metoder og muligheder, PRinfoParitas

Dansk Byplanlaboratorium (2014): Vejkantsdanmarks fremtid

Dansk Energi et al. (2013): Scenarier for udrulning af elbiler

Department for Business, Innovation and Skills (UK) (2013): Smart Cities : background paper

Ellen Macarthur Foundation (2013): Towards the circular economy, vol. 1 – Economic and business rationale for an accelerated transition

Ellen Macarthur Foundation (2013): Towards the circular economy vol. 2 – opportunities for the consumer goods sector

Ellen Macarthur Foundation (2014): Towards the circular economy vol. 3 – Accelerating the scale-up across global supply chains

Energistyrelsen (2012): Danmarks Energifremskrivning

Energistyrelsen (2013): Danmarks olie- og gasproduktion 2012

Energistyrelsen, (2013): Technology Data for Energy

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Forum for the Future (2010): Megacities on the move – your guide to the future of sustainable urban mobility in 2040

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Hammer, S. et al. (2011): “Cities and Green Growth: A Conceptual Framework”, OECD Regional Development Working Papers 2011/08, OECD Publishing

HSBC (2011): The world in 2050 – Quantifying the shift in the global economy

IDA (2013): Er Danmark på rette vej? – en opfølgning på IDA’s klimaplan 2050

International Energy Agency (2010): Energy technology perspectives

International Energy Agency (2013): First IEA regional technology study plots carbon-neutral Nordic energy system

ISIS (2010): PASHIMIA – Qualitative scenarios

Kairos Future (2013): Global Youth

Kamal-Chaoui, L. and Sanchez-Reaza, J. (eds.) (2012): Urban Trends and Policies in OECD Countries, OECD Regional Development Working Papers 2012/01, OECD Publishing.

Klimakommissionen (2010): Grøn Energi – vejen mod et dansk energisystem uden fossile brændsler

KPMG (2012): Expect the unexpected: Building business value in a changing world

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Københavns Universitet (2012): The Urban Turn

McKinsey & Company (2013): Disruptive technologies: Technologies that will transform life, business, and the global economy

McKinsey & Company (2013): How to make a city great

Naturstyrelsen (2013): Grøn omstilling – nye muligheder for hele Danmark, Miljøministeriet

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PSFK: The future of cities

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Realdania: Fremtidens by

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WWF (2012) Counter currents – scenarios for the Baltic Sea towards 2030

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ARTICLES

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Friedman, Thomas L (2014): Why Putin Doesn’t Respect Us, The New York Times, 4. Marts.

Quass, Lisbeth (2014): Venstre vil have energiaftale åbnet igen, Berlingske 19. februar. Rasmussen, Michelle (2007): Danish Schiller Institute’s Maglev Proposal Sets Debate, Executive Intelligvence Review, 30 marts

Rasmussen, Poul E (2006): Århus-København på 25 minutter med magnetsvævetog, Schiller Instituttets Kampagneavis nr. 1, juli

Rifkin, Jeremy (2014): The Rise of Anti-capitalism, New York Times 15. marts

Ritzau (2012): Danmark rykker nedad på lighedsrangliste, Information 22. august

Secher, Kristian (2014): Hvorfor fik vi ikke magnettog?, Videnskab.dk, 16. Januar

Visby, Børge (2014): Frankrig sværger til atomkraft, Information 13. maj

World Values Survey: http://www.worldvaluessurvey.org/

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We have as inspiration, especially to the larger cities in Project DK2050, collected examples of how green is arranged in five major foreign cities:

• Amsterdam• Stockholm• Berlin• Oslo• Rotterdam

The starting point for the collection of examples has given new inspiration to major Danish cities in areas that they have focused on, but have yet to create concrete initiatives.

Amsterdam – Smart cityAmsterdam is aiming to become one of the world’s most sustainable cities in 2040. To ensure that the city achieves its goal, it has formed a unique partnership between businesses, the authorities, research institutes and the inhabitants of Amsterdam called Amsterdam Smart City (ASC). A smart city is when capital investment and communications infrastructure ignite a sustainable growth and raise the quality of life in conjunction with the effective use of natural resources.

Since the founding of ASC in 2009, ASC has grown to a wider platform with more than 70 partners that are involved in a series of projects focusing on the organisation of energy and open cooperation. This ‘bottom-up’ approach to sustainability promotes the involvement of citizens and the business community, and accelerates the integration of new technologies. Technologies that would otherwise have struggled to reach the marketplace. ASC tests innovative products and services and utilises a collective flow in creating contacts between

partners, thereby creating new local projects. The best initiatives can then be implemented on a large scale. Knowledge and experience is shared on the ASC platform. Interested parties are supported and included in development and the testing of projects. That there is the opportunity to test technologies/products/services/approaches in concrete areas is one of ASCs greatest strengths. Furthermore, everything is ‘open’ – complete information on all data, innovation, infrastructure, everything.

The goal for Amsterdam is that, due to these smart, sustainable projects, CO2-emissions will be reduced, fulfilling local, national and European emission reduction targets, while simultaneously ensuring economic development. For Amsterdam that is a reduction in CO2-emissions of 40% in 2025 in comparison to 1990.

There are five central themes that the projects in Amsterdam Smart City cover: housing, employment, mobility, public facilities and open data. Additionally, a wealth of schemes are shared on ASC’s platform, including a sustainable platform that simply gives neighbours and friends the ability to safely loan their cars to each other.

The ASC project has lead to a huge array of innovative projects. The projects vary in scale and stages, and it is difficult to see what effect they will have on the city’s long-term sustainability. Nevertheless, it is clear that Amsterdam Smart City functions as a platform and an inspiration to small and medium-sized businesses in their search for sustainable alternatives, and that alone can help create a strong foundation for the big change in the way we think about urban development.

Appendix I – The experiences of large cities in Northern Europe

Stockholm – Sustainable JärvaSustainable Järva is an ambitious pilot project that aims to upgrade all Stockholm’s buildings from the 60s and 70s by 2020 – that accounts for a third of all apartments in the city.The buildings are a part of Sweden’s ‘Million hem’ (Million Home) program. The program offered modern, affordable public apartments at a time when they were needed, but unfortunately the tower blocks are not especially energy efficient and they now need renovating.

The challenge is not just to improve the buildings’ environmental performance, but also to lift the quality of life for the residents. Some of the targets are to half energy usage, improve conditions for cyclists and create a carpooling scheme, together with the installation of 10,000m2 of solar panels.

The pilot project Järva tests different renovation methods. For example, the use of prefabricated elements, different ventilation systems and sewage systems.

The project has strongly focused on engaging and mobilising residents in the affected areas. ‘The Järva dialogue’, for example, holds open meetings for the residents where they can voice their opinion and their thoughts about how they see the project moving forward. In the individual housing blocks, the residents also take part in planning the renovation and have the opportunity to vote on the plans. The building contractors must also try to create job opportunities for local residents and the ambition is to create more than 100 jobs.

The full effect of ‘sustainable Järva’ is hard to predict, but until now the project has been successful in reaching its targets, and many residents have become involved.

There are approximately 200 million similar buildings across Europe faced with the same challenges. This project can be seen as a good example, not just for renovation, but also for the development of sustainable mini-communities in entire regions.

Berlin – Sunroof exchangeFor more than a decade, Berlin has used solar energy as one of the most important instruments in raising the use of renewable energy. One of the key projects is ‘Solardachbörse’ – a sunroof exchange. The exchange started in 2005 and was aimed at private investors to develop solar panels on public buildings – basically using free rooftops to create renewable energy. The idea is simple: The municipality adds buildings to an online database where they indicate the potential area available for PV panels. Private investors can then develop the sites and receive an economic profit from the electricity they sell. Many municipal buildings around the city, from schools to hospitals and government buildings, now have solar panels.

Furthermore, Berlin gives incentives to households that add solar panels to their houses. Berlin has Europe’s largest solar project on residential properties, where it produces 25,000kWh annually. In 2010, Berlin developed the so-called ‘Solar Atlas’ in collaboration with Osnabruck University. It is an online tool that shows every building in Berlin and demonstrates the potential for solar energy based on factors such as roof incline and geographical information. The tool also takes into account cost and potential savings in order to indicate if solar panels would be economically viable. It has shown that 220,000 roofs are suitable for solar panels, but only 9,000 have them at present. The project also


estimated that solar energy can produce 100 MWh, which if all suitable, available roof tops were utilised. This is the equivalent of two-thirds of the electricity used in private households.

The initiative is an attempt at effective utilisation of the available building mass to create renewable energy. Berlin’s attitude is that empty rooftops are a wasted resource. By attempting to make use of these otherwise empty areas this becomes a very effective project that involves the private sector in producing and fitting the solar panels and, therefore, only requires limited public funding – and at the same time creates jobs and income in the private sector. Berlin’s renewable energy has nearly doubled between 2005–2010 and the proportion of renewable energy has risen from 0.8% to 1.4%.

Several of Berlin’s solar initiatives like the ‘Solar Atlas’ campaign are very innovative pioneering projects that have afterwards been copied in other places. The solar industry employs 5,000 people in the region. The development of solar energy also plays a role in Berlin’s huge energy and CO2 reduction strategy, where the city has also been quick with the initiatives needed to fulfil CO2 targets. In 2010, Berlin had already met its first target of a 25% reduction in CO2 emissions as compared to 1990. Berlin is aiming to be carbon-neutral by 2050.

Oslo – Intelligent street lightingOslo has reduced energy usage by 70% and CO2 emissions by 1,440 tons a year by introducing an innovative and energy efficient form of street lighting.

The initiative is a joint venture between the city of Oslo and Hafslund ASA, the largest electricity distribution company in Norway.

Hafslund has responsibility for the operation and maintenance street lighting points in the Oslo area.

In the project, old inventory that contains PCB and mercury is being replaced by high performance, high pressure sodium lights and an advanced data communications system that will reduce the need for maintenance. The system reduces the level of the lights when the need for them is low, thereby saving energy and reducing pollution.

The new lamps have electronic equipment in each light that measures the usage of different consumers – including private businesses, public parks and streets. This means that energy usage can be measured accurately and taxed accordingly. When users are not charged for the estimated amount (older systems are often based on fixed rate fees), but their actual usage, it creates an incentive, and thereby a demand for more effective products.

This advanced communication means that each light can be turned down individually when traffic and the climatic conditions change. This lengthens the expected life expectancy of the lamps and equipment and gives savings both economically and in CO2 emissions (if the energy is produced by fossil fuels). In addition, data is transferred to a GIS database that holds information on each individual unit, so the operator can easily identify the lamp that has, or will soon, burn out. It is estimated that this technology will increase efficiency by 30%.

The 10,000 intelligent street lights are run from a central database that watches and performs commands. The system uses telecommunications (GPRS technology) between the central database and the control box in each street.

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The simultaneous distribution to all of the city’s 250,000 streetlights can raise energy savings and reduce emissions considerably. An upscaling of the project is necessary in order to deliver the scale economy needed to utilise the optimal economic savings.

Electricity supply in Norway is 98% hydro-electric. The lighting in Oslo is covered 100% by hydro-electricity, but if oil was used to generate the electricity, the city would discharge 1,440 tons of CO2 a year for the 10,000 lamps. The potential for energy savings has been estimated at 4.5 GWh/year. There are plans for a continual replacement of older, ineffective street lighting.

Rotterdam – Benthemplein Water Square: ”Benthemplein Water Square” is an innovative way to prevent flooding in Rotterdam. Put simply, it is a square of water, that holds water when at a high capacity, for example, during intensive precipitation or a torrential rain storm. It relieves the pressure on the sewer system and prevents flooding in highly urbanised areas. The concept behind the water square was mainly for the areas that needed extra space to store water, but do not have the traditional means, like canals.

A water square holds rainwater that falls on the square itself and, at the same time, as a storage space for the rain that falls on the roofs of the surrounding buildings.

A water square also functions as an urban public space – the lower areas designed to hold water can be used for sport and recreational activities when it is dry. The Benthemplein has space for basketball, skateboarding and

performance art in the square, and there is also room for 1.7 million litres of water. The water is filtered through the ground under the pavements or pumped out into canals in other parts of the city.

The Benthemplein water square can store water from the square’s walkways together with rainwater from the roofs of surrounding buildings. As a result, these buildings’ drainpipes have been disconnected from Rotterdam’s sewer system. This helps flood prevention and also avoids the expenses connected to upgrading sewers in the future.

People around Benthemplein are invited to share their ideas for the water square. For example, urban sports enthusiasts were quick to spot alternative uses for the square, and began removing obstructions from the square during the weekends even before the building was finished. That is why Benthemplein is often used by many different types of sport.

More space for water is necessary throughout Rotterdam and as Benthemplein has proved to be a successful and sustainable solution, it will almost certainly be copied elsewhere.


How to read the networks cards

CirclesThe circles on the cards are keywords that are used in the chosen decades. The size of the circles are dependant on how often the words are found in the articles.

LinesThe lines between the circles state that the two words joined by the line appear in the same article. The thickness of the line and how close the circles are to each other state how often the keywords appear in the same article. A thick line stands for more often, a thin line for less often.

ColourThe colour of the notes matches to the group the word mostly belongs to. The different colours are random.

The networksThe networks is generated in regard to an analysis of which word that appears most often in the same description of an article compared to the frequency that the word is used in the entire data set. The words that appear most together are placed closer to each other and have stronger links to each other. With this as a starting point, we can identify clusters of words that often appear together, and thereBY identify themes that are particularly prominent in this literature that is published in the relevant decade.

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City research through three decadesBy searching through the huge amount of historic academic literature, we have looked closely at the development within research related to the arrangement of green areas in cities. This historic background is important as it helps to tell the story of a change in focus on city development and environment through the years. By documenting this change in focus it does not just show which research areas have prevailed in different decades, but also the cohesion between research disciplines. An analysis of research focus over time can be seen as a reflection of the larger societal debates that have left their mark on their time.

A part of the analysis based on more than 130,000 scientific articles underlines a big change in focus and cohesion over time, which is an essential point relating to how we see the future; we should be aware that research and societal debate will markedly change over the coming decades through to 2050. In working with developing future scenarios, we need to be ready to see beyond present day societal debates and think forward to a situation where other paradigms will influence our research and societal debates relating to the re-organisation in the cities. A challenging thought, but still very realistic. The method behind this co-word analysis is presented in appendix I, together with illustrations for two decades. Only the latest decade is illustrated on the following Side.

Appendix II – City research through three decades

The focus of research has markedly changedAnalysis shows that there are themes in each of the three 10 year periods that are prominent topics of discussion in scientific literature. In the 80s, in city related research, particular focus was placed on the social aspects of living in the city. There was a defined change through to the 90s, where the primary research focus was on the environment and pollution relating to cities. There is a further shift in the 2000s where town planning relating to urban areas becomes a central theme that connects to the larger part of the other focus areas.

Additional integration of fields of research over timeOver time there is an interesting trend that different scientific areas attain an even wider integration. Increased publication across topics can indicate a rise in multidisciplinary research. A reason for this could be that researchers have realised that solutions to the challenges that cities face cannot be solved with one-sided contributions, but need wider integration to be resolved.


FIGURE 0.1International research relating to cities and reorganisation of green areas, 1980–1989

Source: DAMVAD 2014

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FIGURE 0.2International research relating to cities and reorganisation of green areas, 1990–1999

Source: DAMVAD 2014


FIGURE 0.3International research relating to cities and reorganisation of green areas, 2000 – 2009

Source: DAMVAD 2014

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The methodIn order to reflect city related research to the reorganisation of green areas, five critical areas of cities development and green area organisation were chosen. A simple description of search methods can be see in the figure below.

FIGURE 0.4Search blocks

Source: DAMVAD 2014

As can be seen in the figure, the city and the urban space is an overlying search criterion across the five search blocks, which ensures that the literature searched for has a focus on the connection between the city and one of the five search blocks.

With the help of databases11, more than 130,000 scientific articles have been retrieved globally from the years 1980 to 2009, and are used in the analysis.

For a closer look at changes over time, the results are presented in decades, respectively 1980–1989, 1990–1999 and 2000–2009.

As the available data is enormous, the results are presented visually as a networks card, where the focus of research and the cohesion between research topics for each decade appear. This has consequently lead to three interesting networks cards.

11 The Scopus database is used, which is one of the most reputable international library databases. Scopus indexes and covers more than 21,000 different international peer-reviewed publications along with 200,000 different contributions to conferences.


Participating municipalities

Copenhagen, Aarhus , Aalborg, Odense, Ringkøbing-SkjernSønderborg, Fredericia, Middelfart, Kalundborg and Høje-Taastrup

Participating regions

The Capital Region of Denmark, the Region of Southern Denmark, North Denmark Region

Analysis partners

The partnership behind DK2050

Knowledge panel

Professor Katherine Richardson Copenhagen University Professor Mark Lorenzen Copenhagen Business School Professor Brian Vad Mathiesen Aalborg University Professor Gertrud Jørgensen Copenhagen University

Curator of the biennale exhibition

Project developer

Supported by Architects

Co-curator of ”Sustainable Danish cities and city regions towards 2050”

Future possibilitiesPresent actions

Green growth in Denmark towards 2050Four future scenarios

Made by DAMVAD & Kairos Future

green growth in denmark towards 2050 - dac · professor katherine richardson copenhagen university...

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