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Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life | Company Bringing China to the World

SWS Research Co. Ltd 99 East Nanjing Road, Shanghai | +86 21 2329 7818 www.swsresearch.com

19 October 2017

Hold Downgrade

配售新股 CSPC PHARMACEUTICAL GROUP (1093:HK)

Market Data: October, 18

Closing Price (HK$) 13.02

Price Target (HK$) 13.90

HSCEI 11,622

HSCCI 4,402

52-week High/Low (HK$) 13.68/7.43

Market Cap (US$m) 10,097

Market Cap (HK$m) 78,823

Shares Outstanding (m) 6,054

Exchange Rate (Rmb-HK$) 1.18

Price Performance Chart:

Source: Bloomberg

Analyst

Jill WU

A0230514080002

AXT645

[email protected]

(+86) 21 23297269

Related Reports "Concrete achievement-CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (1093:HK)"August 24,2017 "R&D improvement-CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (1093:HK)"June 26,2017

Financial summary and valuation 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E

Revenue (HK$ m) 11,393.73 12,369.04 14,605.18 16,651.39 18,882.75 YoY (%) 4.00 8.56 18.08 14.01 13.40 Net income (HK$ m) 1,665.27 2,100.85 2,731.31 3,393.68 4,065.29 YoY (%) 31.28 26.16 30.01 24.25 19.79 EPS (HK$) 0.28 0.35 0.44 0.54 0.65 Diluted EPS (HK$) 0.28 0.35 0.44 0.54 0.65 ROE (%) 19.80 22.30 24.84 26.13 26.38 Debt/asset (%) 34.91 30.95 26.49 24.09 21.95 Dividend Yield (%) 0.84 0.92 1.18 1.46 1.75 PE (x) 46.20 36.94 29.76 23.95 19.99 PB (x) 8.73 7.61 6.79 5.72 4.82 EV/Ebitda (x) 28.33 24.25 19.22 15.89 13.54 Note: Diluted EPS is calculated as if all outstanding convertible securities, such as convertible preferred shares, convertible

debentures, stock options and warrants, were exercised.

配售股份。10 月 12 日，公司公告将按每股 12.44 港币配售 1.89 亿股，相对 10 月 11 日

的收盘价折让约 6.04%。配售股份对现有股东的稀释比例约为 3%。我们预期配售将在近

几天完成。此次配售募集资金净额约为 23.4 亿港币。我们预计募集资金将主要用于并

购，研发开支以及制剂产能的扩建。我们认为未来公司的并购方向将主要集中于创新型

的医药研发企业，尤其是生物制药领域的企业。

一致性评价的领跑者。公司计划完成 32 个基药和 12 个非基药的一致性评价工作。根据

我们的统计，目前国内的所有口服化药仿制药中，至少有 127 个品种已经开始生物等效

性试验，其中石药集团有 7 个品种进入到该阶段，在全国企业当中排名第三位。我们认

为公司在一致性评价方面进度超前，未来将具备较大优势抢占国内仿制药的市场份额。

恩必普保持强劲增长。今年上半年恩必普的销售收入同比增长 32%，其中恩必普注射剂

同比增长 41%，软胶囊增长 24%。恩必普注射剂于今年 2 月份新纳入国家医保目录（乙

类）。此前，恩必普注射剂已经进入了 7 个省的医保目录。与其他竞争品种相比，目前

恩必普的销售额排名第七，市场份额约为 9.1%。由于恩必普的竞争品种大多是辅助用

药，在临床使用中将继续受到限制，从而给恩必普放量腾挪出空间。我们预计恩必普的

销售额于 17-19 年实现 30%的复合增长。

下调评级至中性。考虑到配售的影响，我们将 17 年预测稀释每股盈利从 0.45 港币下调

至0.44港币（同比增长24%），18年从0.56港币下调至0.54港币（同比增长 24%），

以及 19 年从 0.67 港币下调至 0.65 港币（同比增长 20%）。我们维持目标价 13.9 港

币。由于目前股价相对于目标价的上涨空间为 7%，我们将评级从增持下调至中性。考虑

到公司快速的盈利增长预期以及强劲的研发实力，我们仍然长期看好公司。

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derivatives of the listed company

mentioned in this report (“target”), but then

we shall provide financial advisory services

subject to the relevant laws and

regulations. Any affiliates of the company

may hold equities of the target, which may

exceed 1 percent of issued shares subject

to the relevant laws and regulations. The

company may also provide investment

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last page.

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CSPC

Hang Seng China Ent Index

October 12, 2010 Building Materials | Company Research

Please refer to the last page for important disclosures Page 1

January 12,2015 Food, Beverage & Tobacco | Company Research

19 October 2017 Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life | Company Research

Investment Highlights:

On 12 October 2017, CSPC announced a placement of 189m new shares at HK$12.44/share, representing a 6.0% discount to the stock’s close on 11 October. The dilution to current shareholders will be 3%. We expect the placement to be completed in a few days. To factor in the potential dilution, we lower our diluted EPS forecasts from HK$0.45 to HK$0.44 in 17E (+24% YoY), from HK$0.56 to HK$0.54 in 18E (+24% YoY), and from HK$0.67 to HK$0.65 in 19E (+20% YoY), and maintain our target price of HK$13.90. Following a recent rally in the stock, our target price has just 7% upside; we thus downgrade our rating from Outperform to Hold. We maintain a long-term positive view on CSPC for its promising earnings outlook and strong research & development (R&D) capability.

Use of proceeds. Net proceeds from the placement will be approximately HK$2.3bn. We expect the company to use the proceeds for potential mergers & acquisitions (M&A), R&D investment and expansion of finished drug manufacturing facilities. We believe future acquisitions will mainly focus on innovative R&D companies, especially in the area of biological drugs.

Early mover in equivalence evaluation. CSPC aims to conduct the equivalence evaluation of 32 essential drugs and 12 non-essential drugs. According to our calculation, of the oral chemical generics in China, a total of 127 have started bioequivalence tests, of which CSPC is conducting seven, placing it the number-3 among peers. We expect CSPC to gain market share in the Chinese generics market as an early mover in equivalence evaluation.

Strong momentum for NBP. NBP recorded a 32% YoY sales growth in 1H17, driven by 41% YoY growth in NBP injection and 24% YoY growth in NBP soft capsule sales. NBP injection was added into the new national reimbursement drug list (NRDL) as a “type 2” (partial reimbursement) drug for treatment of acute ischemic stroke in February 2017. Previously, it was listed on seven provincial reimbursement drug lists (PRDLs). Sales of NBP ranks seventh among major competing drugs and accounts for a 9.1% market share. As most competing products are adjuvant drugs, they are losing market share due to restrictions on clinical use. We forecast NBP sales to grow at 30% Cagr in 17-19E.

Downgrade to Hold. To factor in the potential dilution, we lower our diluted EPS forecasts from HK$0.45 to HK$0.44 in 17E (+24% YoY), from HK$0.56 to HK$0.54 in 18E (+24% YoY), and from HK$0.67 to HK$0.65 in 19E (+20% YoY), and maintain our target price of HK$13.90. Due to recent rally of the share price and 7% expected upside from the current share price, we downgrade the stock from Outperform to Hold.





Figure 1: 7-ACA prices

Source: WIND, SWS Research

Figure 2: Vitamin C prices


Figure 3: Caffeine prices


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APPENDIX

Consolidated Income Statement

Consolidated Cash Flow Statement

(HK$m) 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E

Profit before taxation 2,112 2,635 3,446 4,287 5,136

Plus：Depr. and amortisation 605 588 613 633 651

Finance cost 56 42 36 29 22

Losses from investments 0 0 0 0 0

Change in working capital (46) 219 (825) (370) (416)

Others (478) (567) (739) (908) (1,075)

CF from operating activities 2,249 2,916 2,530 3,671 4,318

CAPEX (758) (1,090) (800) (800) (800)

Other CF from investing activities 35 (242) 0 0 0

CF from investing activities (723) (1,332) (800) (800) (800)

Equity financing 0 0 0 0 0

Net change in liabilities 263 (283) (200) (200) (200)

Dividend and interest paid (591) (650) (956) (1,188) (1,423)

Other CF from financing activities (265) 481 0 0 0

CF from financing activities (592) (452) (1,156) (1,388) (1,623)

Net cash flow 934 1,132 574 1,483 1,895

FCFF 1,535 1,844 1,757 2,890 3,530

FCFE 1,742 1,519 1,520 2,661 3,308

Source: Company data, SWS Research

(HK$m) 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E

Revenue 11,394 12,369 14,605 16,651 18,883

Cost of Sales (6,173) (6,060) (6,186) (6,994) (7,893)

Gross Profit 5,221 6,309 8,419 9,658 10,990

Other Income 87 107 97 111 125

Selling/General/Admin. Expenses (2,802) (3,342) (4,371) (4,696) (5,155)

EBITDA 2,772 3,237 4,085 4,939 5,799

EBIT 2,166 2,649 3,472 4,307 5,148

Finance Costs (56) (42) (36) (29) (22)

Profit before tax 2,112 2,635 3,446 4,287 5,136

Income tax expense (432) (522) (703) (879) (1,053)

Minority interests (14) (12) (12) (15) (18)

Profit for the year 1,665 2,101 2,731 3,394 4,065






Consolidated Balance Sheet

(HK$m) 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E

Current Assets 7,648 8,428 9,775 12,018 14,763

Bank balances and cash 2,299 3,235 3,809 5,292 7,187

Trade and other receivables 1,878 1,835 2,401 2,737 3,104

Inventories 1,819 1,933 1,949 2,165 2,422

Other current assets 1,651 1,425 1,616 1,824 2,050

Long-term investment 28 172 172 172 172

PP&E 5,143 5,415 5,638 5,840 6,021

Intangible and other assets 722 746 710 676 644

Total Assets 13,540 14,760 16,295 18,706 21,600

Current Liabilities 3,484 4,085 3,833 4,022 4,256

Borrowings 452 898 698 498 298

Trade and other payables 2,489 2,938 2,881 3,257 3,676

Other current liabilities 544 249 254 267 282

Long-term liabilities 1,243 484 484 484 484

Total Liabilities 4,727 4,569 4,317 4,506 4,741

Minority Interests 75 84 96 110 128

Shareholder Equity 8,738 10,108 11,883 14,089 16,731

Share Capital 9,835 10,570 10,570 10,570 10,570

Reserves (1,097) (462) 1,313 3,519 6,162

Total Equity 8,813 10,191 11,979 14,199 16,859

Total Liabilities and equity 13,540 14,760 16,295 18,706 21,600






Key Financial Ratios

2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E

Ratios per share (HK$)

Earnings per share 0.28 0.35 0.44 0.54 0.65

Diluted EPS 0.28 0.35 0.44 0.54 0.65

Operating CF per share 0.38 0.49 0.41 0.59 0.69

Dividend per share 0.11 0.12 0.15 0.19 0.23

Net assets per share 1.49 1.71 1.92 2.27 2.70

Key Operating Ratios(%)

ROIC 15.81 17.54 20.16 21.62 22.19

ROE 19.80 22.30 24.84 26.13 26.38

Gross profit margin 45.82 51.00 57.64 58.00 58.20

EBITDA Margin 24.33 26.17 27.97 29.66 30.71

EBIT Margin 19.01 21.42 23.77 25.86 27.26

Growth rate of Revenue(YoY) 4.00 8.56 18.08 14.01 13.40

Growth rate of Profit(YoY) 31.28 26.16 30.01 24.25 19.79

Debt-to-asset ratio 34.91 30.95 26.49 24.09 21.95

Turnover rate of net assets 1.29 1.21 1.22 1.17 1.12

Turnover rate of total assets 0.84 0.84 0.90 0.89 0.87

Effective tax rate (%) 20.49 20.02 20.45 20.55 20.54

Dividend yield (%) 0.84 0.92 1.18 1.46 1.75

Valuation Ratios (X)

P/E 46.20 36.94 29.76 23.95 19.99

P/B 8.73 7.61 6.79 5.72 4.82

EV/Sale 6.89 6.35 5.38 4.71 4.16






Information Disclosure： The views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst. The analyst declares that neither he/she nor his/her associate serves as an officer of nor has any financial interests in relation to the listed corporation reviewed by the analyst. None of the listed corporations reviewed or any third party has provided or agreed to provide any compensation or other benefits in connection with this report to any of the analyst, the Company or the group company(ies). A group company(ies) of the Company confirm that they, whether individually or as a group (i) are not involved in any market making activities for any of the listed corporation reviewed; or (ii) do not have any individual employed by or associated with any group company(ies) of the Company serving as an officer of any of the listed corporation reviewed; or (iii) do not have any financial interest in relation to the listed corporation reviewed or (iv) do not, presently or within the last 12 months, have any investment banking relationship with the listed corporation reviewed. Undertakings of the Analyst I (We) am (are) conferred the Professional Quality of Securities Investment Consulting Industry by the Securities Association of China and have registered as the Securities Analyst. I hereby issue this report independently and objectively with due diligence, professional and prudent research methods and only legitimate information is used in this report. I am also responsible for the content and opinions of this report. I have never been, am not, and will not be compensated directly or indirectly in any form for the specific recommendations or opinions herein. Disclosure with respect to the Company The company is a subsidiary of Shenwan Hongyuan Securities. The company is a qualified securities investment consulting institute approved by China Securities Regulatory Commission with the code number ZX0065. Releasing securities research reports is the basic form of the securities investment consulting services. The company may analyze the values or market trends of securities and related products or other relevant affecting factors, provide investment analysis advice on securities valuation/ investment rating, etc. by issuing securities research reports solely to its clients. The Company fulfills its duty of disclosure within its sphere of knowledge. The clients may contact [email protected] for the relevant disclosure

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Security Investment Rating： When measuring the difference between the markup of the security and that of the market’s benchmark within six months after the release of this report, we define the terms as follows: Trading BUY: Share price performance is expected to generate more than 20% upside over a 6-month period. BUY: Share price performance is expected to generate more than 20% upside over a 12-month period. Outperform: Share price performance is expected to generate between 10-20% upside over a 12-month period. Hold: Share price performance is expected to generate between 10% downside to 10% upside over a 12-month period. Underperform: Share price performance is expected to generate between 10-20% downside over a 12-month period. SELL: Share price performance is expected to generate more than 20% downside over a 12-month period. Industry Investment Rating: When measuring the difference between the markup of the industry index and that of the market’s benchmark within six months after the release of the report, we define the terms as follows:

Overweight：Industry performs better than that of the whole market；

Equal weight： Industry performs about the same as that of the whole market；

Underweight：Industry performs worse than that of the whole market. We would like to remind you that different security research institutions adopt different rating terminologies and rating standards. We adopt the relative rating method to recommend the relative weightings of investment. The clients’ decisions to buy or sell securities shall be based on their actual situation, such as their portfolio structures and other necessary factors. The clients shall read through the whole report so as to obtain the complete opinions and information and shall not rely solely on the investment ratings to reach a conclusion. The Company employs its own industry classification system. The industry classification is available at our sales personnel if you are interested. HSCEI is the benchmark employed in this report.

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