how demand for flexibility will develop in the german power system

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Flexibility Options for RES-E Integration

Dr. Dierk Bauknecht, David Ritter

Leonardo Energy Webinar

17 March 2015

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From RES-E development to system integration

Leonardo Energy Webinar | 17.03.2015 | Bauknecht, Ritter

RES-E increases

System Integration andTransformation

More FlexibilityDemand

A differentiated analysis is required:

• Flexibility demand

• Flexibility options

• Effects of flexibility

• and their evolution.

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Analysis of flexibility is based on two models

Dispatch model PowerFlex for

Germany

By Öko-Institut

Written in GAMS, CPLEX solver

Detailed modelling of various of

flexibility options within German

No flexibility demand as a result of

network constraints within

Germany

European network model

By energynautics

European exchange

as a flexibility option

Scenario:

EU Roadmap

Diversified Supply

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Flexibility options between networks and markets

1. Flexibility options to manage network constraints

• To what extent can storage and demand side management

(DSM) replace network upgrades?

• How often will these options actually be called from network

operators?

2. Flexibility options to balance generation and demand

• Storage and DSM should primarily be dispatched based on

market signals.

How can network and market requirements be coordinated?


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Residual load

Demand

RES-E generation

Residual load

Residual load curve shows the amount of capacity that is needed on top of

RES-E per hour.

The capacity can be positive or negative.

Subtracting the electricity generated by variable renewable power plants from

the demand leads to the residual load curve.


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Residual load duration curve

Only Demand

and RES-E


Modelled

residual load -

incl. flexibility

already in

place

What are the functions and values of additional flexibility?

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Different flexibility functions and values

Deficit:

Flexibility can

replace plant

capacity

Surplus:

Flexibility substitutes

conventional

generation

Supply = Demand:

Competition with existing flexibility options by

1) Increased efficiency

2) High value from replacing fossil with RES-E

generation


hours per

year

GW

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Which options can be used?

Deficits:

New flexible

power plants

Load Management

(Reduction)

Import

Surplus:

Flexibilization of power plants

Load Management (Increase)

Use of „excess energy“ in other

sectors

Export

RES-E curtailment

Supply = Demand:

Load Management (Shifting and Reduction)

Storages with high efficiencies;

Flexible cogeneration

Competition with present options via variable

cost or efficiencies

Shifting surpluses to deficits

Storage and load management (shifting)

Virtual storages


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Residual load duration curve for Germany


40 % RES-E 60 % RES-E 75 % RES-E 100 % RES-E

Hours of the year [h]

No significant peak reduction

More hours with RES-E surplus

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.de Development of flexibility demand: deficit and surplus,

Existing flexibility; no import and export


-80

-60

-40

-20

-

20

40

60

1 1001 2001 3001 4001 5001 6001 7001 8001

GW

Hours

ca. 40% RES-E ca. 61% RES-E ca. 75% RES-E40 % RES-E 60 % RES-E 75 % RES-E

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Scenario 2030 for Germany, ca. 60% RES-E


748 7.275

1.464

8.394 4.308 1.210 2.869 2.004 -1.002 2.170 1.327 0 - -

-

2.000

4.000

6.000

8.000

10.000

12.000

14.000

16.000

18.000

20.000

MW

Reduction of flexibility demand

Used potentials

Not used for deficit reduction

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Linking the electricity sector to other sectors

Power-to-Gas, Power-to-heat etc often seen as a way to provide

flexibility to the electricity sector.

However, it is mainly a way to use renewables in other sectors.

• This needs to be done in a flexible way.

Linking sectors can also lead to additional inflexibility, e.g. limited

flexibility of heat demand profile.

Systems that can use power and other sources are preferable,

e.g. power-to-heat.

If additional consumers are introduced too early, there is a

danger of increasing conventional sources

L2H: Lignite-to-heat


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Economic ranking of options

What is the cheapest combination of options to meet flexibility

demand?

• Focussing on the capacity deficit

• 2030 snapshot

Result

• DSM, especially industry and commerce/trade/services

• CHP with heat storage

• Electric vehicles: Smart charging (needed anyway)

• Plus load curtailment for a few hours needed

Other combinations are possible – but storage not yet required.


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depending on full load hours

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

1 1001 2001 3001 4001 5001 6001 7001 8001

DSM

Gas turbine

CAES

PHS

Battery

P2G H2

P2G CH4

Interruptible Loads

Re

fere

nce: Ö

ko

-In

stitu

t e

.V. (2

01

4).


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Flexibility Roadmap

Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3

Scenario year /

RES-E share

2020

ca. 40%

2030

ca. 61%

2050

ca. 75%

Flexibility

demand and

options

No deficits,

Very low surpluses

New flexibility

competes against

existing options

Relevant surpluses

and especially deficits

Sufficient flexibility

options available

Longer deficit periods

long-term storage


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Conclusions

Adding RES-E capacity increases the demand for flexibility.

Flexibility options should be developed.

However, RES-E flexibility is not a bottleneck that should slow

down progress in setting up RES-E.

• A lot of flexibility can be provided by the options already in

place, i.e. mainly conventional plants.

• lower full load hours!

• There are a number of additional options available in current

systems that can be exploited to cover that demand.

• Flexible CHP, Power-to-heat, DSM

• especially when electricity exchange between MS is used


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Contact

Dr. Dierk Bauknecht

Senior Researcher

Öko-Institut e.V.

Postfach 17 71

79017 Freiburg

Telefon: +49 761 45295-230

E-Mail: [email protected]


how demand for flexibility will develop in the german power system

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