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ÄÍņ The OFES hindcast experiments were conducted at the Earth Simulator Center with the support of JAMSTEC. The cruise of the R/V Kaiyo (KY0111) was conducted under the Tropical Ocean Climate Study (TOCS) of JAMSTEC.

Published paper concerning this study: Hasegawa, T., K. Ando, K. Mizuno, and R. Lukas (2009): “Coastal upwelling along north coast of Papua New Guinea and SST cooling over Pacific warm pool: A case study of 2002/03 El Nino”, Journal of Oceanography, vol. 65, 817-833. Hasegawa, T., K. Ando, K. Mizuno, R. Lukas, B. Taguchi, and H. Sasaki (2010): “Coastal upwelling along the north coast of Papua New Guinea and El Nino events during 1981-2005”, Ocean Dynamics, vol. 60, 1255-1269. Hasegawa, T., K. Ando, and H. Sasaki (2011): “Cold water flow and upper-ocean currents in the Bismarck Sea from December 2001 to January 2002”, Journal of Physical Oceanography, vol. 41, 827-834.

Appendix�

Observation: Showing New Guinea coastal upwelling and related cool SST in the late of 2001 to early 2002 prior to 2002/03 El Nino event. However, observational data are limited: # High resolution satellite data is obtained for 2000s # Not many current velocity observation by moorings, R/Vs, etc. Detail of surface current variations?

High resolution OGCM hindcast # OFES QuikSCAT-run hindcast�

fig07-map-snapshot-tmi-tot-uwin-tot-vwin-tot-22dec2001-ver2�

QuikSCAT Surface wind 22DEC2001�

NCEP1 Surface wind 22DEC2001�

Heat balance in the south EQ in the Bismarck Sea�

Heat balance during coastal upwelling period (Dec 2001-Jan 2002) (BOX: 0 m to 30.8 m; similar current patterns are found in these depths)�

Upwelled cool water transported equatorwards from coastal area by the northeastward current can have

large cooling effect upon south EQ Pacific in the Bismark Sea�

Bismarck Sea�

New Guinea�

Hasegawa et al. 2011 JPO�

Residual: +0.057(é)� �

Western Pacific: Relatively small SST change has a strong effect on climate (Palmer and Mansfield 1984; Goddard et al. 2009 ) �

OFES: NCEP/NCAR forcing during 1981-2005 Masumoto et al. 2004, Sasaki et al. 2008)

Six El Nino events occur with coastal upwelling for 1981-2005

Composite maps of SST (color shade) and surface currents (arrows) for six New Guinea upwellings prior to six El Nino onsets during 1981-2005�

Hasegawa et al. 2010 OD�

30 days before zero day�

15 days before zero day�

Zero day (day of coldest SST)�of New Guinea upwelling

OFES-QuikSCAT run (DEC2001-JAN2002) : comparison to observation�

SST&SSHA: OFES vs Obs�Surface current:

SADCP vs OFES�

Hasegawa et al. 2011 JPO�

OFES SSHA�

Altimeter SSHA�

OFES SST�

TMI SST�

OFES QuikSCAT run (Without any Ōuning for Bismarck Sea)

QuikSCAT�

RED: Observation (Shipboard ADCP) BLUE: OFES�

OFES-QuikSCAT run (DEC2001-JAN2002) : comparison to observation�

SST&SSHA: OFES vs Obs (Average: DEC2001-JAN2002)�

Hasegawa et al. 2011 JPO�

OFES SSHA�

Altimeter SSHA�

OFES SST�

TMI SST�

Similar pattern OFES : Without any Ōuning for Bismarck Sea

Nino-3.4 index (OFES & Obs)�

Hasegawa et al. 2010 OD�

OFES well represent six El Nino events (1982, 1986, 1991, 1997, 2002, and 2005)

The six events are used for composite analysis�

OFES�Observation (Obs: OI-SST) �

�ã���Rļ NOAA OI-SSTĽ�

1981U 12u�

1997U 3u�

2001U 12u�

1980U��âĂđĵģĺģIJ 1982/83U 1986/86U 1991/91U 1997/92U 2002/03U�

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Vwin (raw)

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-Summary and discussion-

zonal heat advection SST cooling

Case study for New Guinea coastal upwelling, related surface currents and SST cooling, prior to the onset of the 2002/03 El Nino, using observation & OFES hindcast, and long-term analysis using OFES NCEP/NCAR run

New Guinea

positive zonal gradient of SST & strong westerly surface wind

Complicated surface currents in the Bismarck Sea can contribute to SST cooling in the south part of the equatorial western Pacific

Surface currents

Before onset of El Nino