keys to development - wilson center to development: state capacity and the yemeni private sector...
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Keys to Development:State Capacity and the Yemeni Private Sector
Charles SchmitzTowson University
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Yemen in Context
• Substantial achievements over the last forty years
• Per capita income, health, education, physical infrastructure have all been transformed
• By whatever time period, 10, 20, 30 years, Yemen has grown and livelihoods have improved– In spite extremely high rates of population growth
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Source: Poverty Survey
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Remittances and Oil
• Growth driven by two factors: remittances and oil
• Remittances remained steady at about 1.5 billion USD while the Yemeni economy grew reducing the significance of remittances
• Oil growth begins in 1990’s but increases dramatically in the 2000’s
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Oil Curse
• Agriculture declines, services grow– Transportation, commerce, communications (non‐commodity sectors)
– Ag 10% of GDP, 30% of labor• Yemen imports most of its staples – wheat and rice
• 90% of water use in agriculture, some 40% of that water is used in Qat
• Qat is 3% of GDP
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A word on agriculture
• Yemen very low per capita water resources• Green by Arabian standards
– Low bar• Only 3% arable dependent upon rains
– Half of Yemen agricultural land rain fed only• “Virtual”
water concepts suggests that
Yemen import water intensive crops and export products that use relatively little water
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State Dependence
• State revenues dependent upon oil– 75% of revenues from oil over the last 15 years
• State bureaucracy atrophied, particularly tax collection– State became a distribution network of oil revenues
• State revenue not dependent upon growth of the economy outside of oil
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Oil Declining
• Yemeni oil peaked in 2001• Rising prices masked decline in production• Decline now affecting economy• Current account deficits• Declining Foreign Reserves
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Yemen not highly indebted
• About 20% of GDP, relatively low by world standards
• Most aid from multilateral agencies• US a small actor in Yemeni aid• Saudi contribution underrepresented by official figures
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Short Term Crisis
• Oil production stopped• Regime running down foreign reserves• Prime Minister reportedly in Saudi Arabia looking to cover state salaries
• Currency losing value, potential collapse of Rial
• Rapid inflation• Food imports threatened
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Medium Term Transition
• Growth not dependent upon natural resources• More diverse economy, an asset in the long run
– Oil and Gas– Aden Port– Free trade zone– Import substitution industry– Labor export– Tourism
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State Capacity• Diverse economy dependent upon state capacity
– Coordination of coherent national investment strategy– Dynamic comparative advantage– Social and physical infrastructure– Development of Yemeni private sector– National pact
• Foreign investment looks for growth, does not cause growth.
• Institutional capacity and credible politics– State not “free”
of politics
– Social Pact