lifetech 8122.hk buy target price hk$9 · 2013. 10. 24. · devices particularly for cardiovascular...
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Lifetech (8122.HK)
2013 年 10 月 23 日
国信证券(香港)
研究报告仅代表分析员个人观点,请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明。
1
23 October 2013
Lifetech(8122.HK) BUY∣Target Price HK$9.68
Phenomenal growth Healthcare
We initiate coverage of Lifetech with a BUY rating and a target
price of HK$9.68 which is based on a 23x PE in 2015. The
company is an established innovative medical device
producer. Commercialization of new products in the pipeline
will open up multi-billion US$ market for the company driving
a 71% CAGR in revenue and a 196% CAGR in earnings for
2013-15. Also, Lifetech will be benefited by strong backing
from world leading medical device company Medtronic.
An established innovative medical device producer. Lifetech has
successfully established itself as an innovative medical device producer in the
global market. Its strong R&D team has developed a rich product portfolio
particularly for cardiovascular and peripheral vascular diseases. Its unique
coating technology has helped it to be the second largest supplier of heart
occluder in the world and the largest in emerging markets.
Entering into a new era. The LAmbre LAA occluder is undergoing clinical
trials in the European Union and China and is expected to obtain Europe‟s CE
mark in 2014 and China‟s CFDA approval in 2015. World leading medical
device company Medtronic has signed an exclusive global distribution
agreement with the company for its Bovine Heart Valve. Its bioabsorbable
stent is in the stage of human clinical trials.
Strong backing from Medtronic. Medtronic is not only a passive investor but
also a strategic shareholder of Lifetech. Full conversion of the first CB will raise
Medtronic‟s stake from 19% to 25% in the company. Medtronic potentially
could be a controlling shareholder through exercising the second CB.
Capitalizing on Medtronic‟s reach of more than 140 countries, the Lifetech
brand will be significantly strengthened globally and distribution channel
extensively widened. There could be many opportunities for R& D cooperation.
196% earnings CAGR. Commercialization of new products will open up
multi-billion US$ markets for Lifetech. We expect the company to see a 71%
CAGR in revenue for 2013-15. With high operating leverage, net profit is
expected to rise by a phenomenal 196% CAGR over the same period. Lifetech
is substantially undervalued compared with both local and global peers.
Financial Summary
Year to Dec 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F
Revenue (RMB m) 140 181 234 434 680
Operating Profit (RMB m) 16 52 35 100 224
Underlying Profit (RMB m) 22 32 20 79 179
Underlying EPS (RMB) 0.044 0.065 0.038 0.147 0.332
BVPS (RMB) 0.536 0.602 0.595 0.744 1.079
P/E (x) 119.8 81.2 136.8 35.2 15.6
P/B (x) 9.9 8.7 8.7 7.0 4.8
Source: Guosen Securities (HK)
Analyst
Helena Qiu SFC CE No.:AOX910 00852-2899 8328 [email protected]
Performance
Source: Bloomberg
Key Data
Price(HK$) 6.55
Shares Outstanding(m) 500
Market Cap. (HK$ m) 3,275
Free float (%) 39.4
Average Daily Turnover HK$689k
52 Week Range 6.72/5.2
Controlling Shareholder Medtronic &management(61%)
BVPS (RMB) 0.60
Debt ratio (%) 17.4
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H S I 8122 HK
Lifetech (8122.HK)
2013 年 10 月 23 日
国信证券(香港)
研究报告仅代表分析员个人观点,请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明。
2
2013 年 10 月 23 日
先健科技(8122.HK) 买入∣目标价 9.68 港元
新产品预期推动公司飞速发展 医药保健
我们首次覆盖先健科技给予买入评级,目标价 9.68 港元,代表 2015
年 23 倍市盈率。公司是一家致力于发展创新医疗器械产品的公司。在
研新产品正在商业化进程中,预期将公司带入几十亿美金的市场。我
们预期公司未来飞速发展,预计 2013 年-2015 年公司销售收入平均增
长 71%,利润平均增长 196%。同时,美敦力的参股也为公司提供强
劲支持。
公司致力于开发创新医疗器械. 公司通过自主创新,产品已经走向了全球。公司强
大的研发团队已经开发了多款心脑血管和周围血管疾病领域的产品。其独特的陶
瓷涂层技术助其发展成为全球第二大,新兴市场第一大的封堵器提供商。
即将进入新纪元. LAmbre 左心耳封堵器目前正在中国和欧盟地区进行临床试验,
预期可于 2014 年获得欧盟 CE 认证,2015 年获得中国 CFDA 批文。世界医疗器械
巨头美敦力已经与公司签订了其牛心包瓣膜产品的全球独家代理的协议。先健开
发多年的可降解支架目前也开始了人体临床试验。
美敦力的进入给公司提供强劲支持. 美敦力是作为策略投资者参股先健。第一批可
换股债券转换后,美敦力的持股比较将从 19%提升到 25%。若第二批可换股债券
转换后,美敦力将成为公司的控股股东。美敦力的网络拓展至超过 140 个国家,
先健科技的品牌知名度将在全球获得提升,销售渠道也将大幅度扩张。另外,先
健也有可能受益于美敦力强大的研发力量。
196%的净利润平均增长幅度. 新产品的商业化会将先健带入几十亿美金的市场。
我们预期公司在 2013 年至 2015 年有 71%的平均销售收入增长。经营的杠杆效应
将推动其利润平均增长 196%。比较全球的医疗器械公司和中国的医疗器械公司,
先健目前的价值被大大低估。
盈利预测
截至 31/12 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F
营业额(人民币百万) 140 181 234 434 680
经营盈利 (人民币百万) 16 52 35 100 224
实际盈利 (人民币百万) 22 32 20 79 179
每股实际盈利(人民币) 0.044 0.065 0.038 0.147 0.332
每股账面价值 (人民币) 0.536 0.602 0.595 0.744 1.079
市盈率(x) 119.8 81.2 136.8 35.2 15.6
市净率(x) 9.9 8.7 8.7 7.0 4.8
资料来源:国信证券(香港)
分析师
邱海燕 证监会中央编号:.:AOX910 00852-2899 8328 [email protected]
股价表现
资料来源:彭博
Key Data
收盘价(港币$) 6.55
流通股本(百万) 500
总市值(港币$百万) 3,275
流通量 (%) 39.4
日均成交额 港币 69万
52周最高/最低 6.72/5.2
主要控股股东 美敦力和管理层 (61%)
每股净资产(港币$) 0.6
负债率 (%) 17.4
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5.5
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6.5
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15000
16000
17000
18000
19000
20000
21000
22000
23000
24000
25000
H S I 8122 HK
Lifetech(8122.HK)
2013 年 10 月 23 日
国信证券(香港)
研究报告仅代表分析员个人观点,请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明。
3
1 An established innovative medical
device producer
1.1 Company background
Founded in 1999, Lifetech focuses on development, manufacture and sale of
advanced minimally invasive medical devices for cardiovascular and peripheral
vascular diseases. The company launched the Cera series heart occluders in 2009,
which was developed internally and based on unique ceramic coating technology. It
is now the second largest supplier of heart occluder in the world and the largest in
emerging markets (including China, India, Russia, and Brazil). The company was
listed on the GEM Board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in November 2011. It
had made an application to transfer to Main Board in May 2013.
Table1:Lifetech development milestones
Time Key Events
1999 Establishment of Liftech Shenzhen
2001 Heart occluder launched in China-First occluder provider in China
Heart stent launched in China
2003 Awards of High-tech enterprise in shenzhen
2005 Xie Yuehui become the chairman
2006 Registered in Cayman Island and Orchid Asia became shareholder
2008 Expand to India Market
Awards of National High-tech enterprise
Acquisition of Beijing PerMed(Heart Valve manufacturer)
Bioabsorbable stent got funding as one of key medical device sector projects of Guangzhou Province
2009 Obtained CE marks for Cera™ series occluders with unique coating tech
Expand to CE Mark applied regions
Research projects were in China National Basic Research program and the China National High-tech research and development program
2010 Micheal Zhao joined as CEO
SeQure™ Snare received U.S. FDA approval
Fustar™steerable sheath、Cera™vascular plug、Acumark™sizing balloon received CE mark
Start of clinical trials for Spider™ PFO in France and Germany
Accredited as a post-doctoral research workstation by MOHRSS
2011 Fustar™ steerable sheath received FDA approval
Bioabsorbable stents got funding as one of key national high-tech R&D program
CeraFlex™ series occluders and plugs get CE mark
Heart Valve got Chinese CFDA approval
List in HKex GEM.
2012 Medtronic became shareholder
Start human clinical trial for its innovative LAA closure device.
Cera PFO、CeraFlex PFO、Spider PFO and Lawmax Dilator received CE mark.
Source:Company data, Guosen Securities (HK)
The second largest heart occluder
provider in the world with unique
ceramic coating technology.
Lifetech(8122.HK)
2013 年 10 月 23 日
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1.2 Product portfolio
Lifetech has a strong R&D team of over 71 people led by Zhang Deyuan. He has
received many awards in material application. World renowned biological material
expert, Zhang Xingdong, is also a R&D consultant of the company. The company
actively cooperates with many renowned hospitals, such as Beijing Fuwai Hospital
in China, and Sankt Katharinen Hospital in Germany. Lifetech has successfully
developed a wide range of products and built up a rich product portfolio of medical
devices particularly for cardiovascular and peripheral vascular diseases over the
past years. The company is now selling over 27 different types of medical devices
across markets internationally, including China, India, Europe, South America, and
etc.
Table2: Existing key product
Brand Product Key selling market Year of Commercial Launch
HeartR Heart Occluders China, Russia
, India,Vietnam
2001
Cera Heart Occluders European Union,China Vietnam, Russia, Brazil, Turkey, Jordan
2009
CeraFlex Heart Occluders European Union 2011
CeraFlex PFO European Union 2012
Blue Arrow PBMV balloon catheter
China,India,Brazil, European Union
1996
Red Arrow PBPV balloon catheter
Turkey, Vietnam, brazil
2009
Green Arrow PBAV balloon catheter
European Union 2010
SteerEase Introducer China, Russia, India, Brazil, European Union
2006
SeQure Snare Turkey 2009
Aegisy Vena Cava filter India, European Union, Brazil
2005
Ankura TAA and AAA stent graft
China, Vietnam 2004
Cera Vascular Plug European Union 2010
CeraFlex Vascular Plug European Union 2011
FuStar Steerable Introducer European Union, United States
2009
PerMed Bovine Heart Valve China 2011
Source:Company data, Guosen Securities (HK)
2 Entering into a new era
Lifetech has a number of new products which have started or will soon commence
their commercialization processes. Based on our assessments, these new products
should have tremendous potential due to big market demand.
A strong R&D team led by renowned
experts with a portfolio of 27 different
types of medical devices selling into
international markets
A number of new products have started
or will soon commence their
commercialization process.
Lifetech(8122.HK)
2013 年 10 月 23 日
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Table3: Key R&D Pipeline
Brand Product Current status
LAmbre LAA occluder Clinical trials in European Union and China
TBD Bioabsorbable stent Start of clinical trials
TBD Bioabsorbable CHD occluder
Research & development
Source:Company data, Guosen Securities (HK)
2.1 LAmbre LAA closure device
Left Atrial Appendage (LAA) is an area of the heart that is particularly likely to form
blood clots. Approximately, 90% of blood clots are located at left artial appendage
for patients with nonrheumatic or nonvalvular Atrial Fibrillation (AF). AF is a heart
condition in which the upper chambers of the heart beat too fast. This could cause
blood to stagnate and form clots. It is likely that blood clots could flows to brain and
cause stroke. Common treatment for AF patient is to take anticoagulants drugs over
a long period of time. However, anticoagulants drugs have serious side effect of high
risk of excess bleeding. Some patients could not take anticoagulants drugs over a
long period of time, particularly for those with rental failure patients.
LAA occluder is a medical device which is proven to be effective in reducing patients‟
risk of stroke from Atrial Fibrillation (AF). Market experts have endorsed that LAA
occluder is a better alternative to anticoagulants drugs in reducing AF patients‟ risk
of stroke.
The leading medical device provider, Boston Scientific (BSX US Market Cap:
US$17b), acquired Atritech for a price of US$375m in 2011. Atritech is the provider
of WATCHMAN, a cathether-based closure device of the LAA. BS stated in the
announcement that "Both Atritech and Boston Scientific believe that the
WATCHMAN device offers the best alternative to oral anticoagulation medication for
patients who suffer from atrial fibrillation and are at high risk for stroke". CEO of
Boston Scientific said that AF and structural heart therapy is in fast-growing stage,
which would be the priority growth initiatives for BS and WATCHMAN device and will
play a key role in its portfolio. Also, St. Jude Medical (STJ US Market Cap:US$16b )
acquired AGA for a price of US$1,046m in 2010. AGA is the provider of
AMPLATZER cardiac plug, a LAA closure device, and other structural heart devices.
Lifetech has developed LAA occluder under the LAmbre brand. It is currently in the
stage of human clinical trial in China and Europe. We expect LAmbre will be granted
Europe‟s CE mark in 2014 and China‟s CFDA in 2015. Following the receipt of the
relevant certificates, the LAmbre LAA occluder will be launched commercially.
Compared with existing providers of LAA occluder in the market, we believe
Lifetech‟s LAmbre LAA occluder is in a strong position. Dr. Yat-Yin Lam from Prince
of Wales Hospital in Hong Kong (President of the Hong Kong Society of Congenital
& Structural Heart, clinical proctor and consultant of Boston Scientific, St. Jude
Medical and Lifetech Scientific) said in his article „A new left atrial appendage
occlude (Lifetech LAmbreTM
Device) for stroke prevention in atrial
fibrillation-Cardiovasc Revasc Med 2013‟ that the operative steps of LAmbre LAA
closure device from Lifetech were easier than WATCHMAN and AMPLATZER so
LAA occluder is a better alternative to
anticoagulants drugs and Lifetech’s
LAmbre LAA occluder is supposed to be
the best in the market.
Lifetech(8122.HK)
2013 年 10 月 23 日
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that the majority heart doctors would be able to close the LAA confidently without
major complications. Dr. Lam believes LAmbre has good potential to compete with
the best LAA closure device in the world.
Table4: Compare of major catheter-based LAA closure device
BS STJ Lifetech
WATCHMAN ACP LAmbre
Leak More likely Less Likely Less Likely
Dependence on LAA Depth
Yes No No
Deep Seating of Delivery catheter
Required Not Required Not Required
Recapture and repositioning
Limited Limited Full
Delivery Sheath 14Fr.
(4.7mm)
9-13Fr.
(3-4.3mm)
8-10Fr.
(2.7-3.3mm)
Backward bounce of the device
No Yes No
Source: Company data,Guosen securities (HK)
Dr. Yat-Yin Lam presentation on Shanghai Oriental Congress of Cardiology 2013
Graph1: Picture of WATCHMAN/AMPLATZER/LAmbre
Source:Guosen Securities (HK)
Typically, the chance of suffering from AF is 0.5 to 1 in 100 persons. The chance
increases with age. For persons at 60 years and older, approximately 4% of persons
suffer from AF which increases to approximately 9% for persons at 80 years old and
older. According to MedTech Insight, market potential of LAA closure device is big. It
is conservatively estimated that potential market size could reach US$1b.
WATCHMAN has received its CE mark. It is expected to obtain the U.S. FAD
approval by the end of 2013. The sale of WATCHMAN was US$15m in 2012 and is
currently forecast to reach US$200m by 2017. St. Jude Medical‟s AMPLATZER has
already obtained its CE mark. It is in the process of application for FDA approval.
We expect LAmbre will be granted Europe‟s CE mark in 2014 and China‟s CFDA in
2015.
WATCHMAN
ACP LAmbre
Lifetech(8122.HK)
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We believe LAmbre LAA occluder is a competitive product compared with
WATCHMAN of Boston Scientific and AMPLATZER of St.Jude Medical. Based on
an annual sales of 5,000 sets at a price of RMB18,336 per set, we conservatively
estimate that LAmbre LAA occluder will generate revenue of RMB92m (around
US$15m) in 2014 (6 months contribution) and RMB183m (around US$30m) in 2015
following its launch in CE mark applied regions. In China, we estimate sales revenue
of RMB46m (around US$7.5m) in 2015 (6 months contribution) following the CFDA
approval.
Table5: LAmbre sales estimate
2014 2015
Sales in CE mark applied region(RMBm) 92 183
Sales volume(set) 5000 10000
Selling price(RMB) 18,336 18,336
Selling price (US$) 3000 3000
Sales in China(RMBm) 46
Sales volume(set) 5000
Selling price(RMB) 9168
Total sales(RMBm) 92 229
Source: Guosen Securities (HK)
2.2 Bovine Heart Valve
Artificial heart valve is a device implanted in the heart of a patient with valvular heart
disease. Valves are integral to the normal physiological functioning of the human
heart. Artificial heart valve mainly includes mechanical valve and tissue valve. The
main suppliers in the world include Edwards, Medtronic, and St. Jude Medical.
Table6: Major companies global sales of Heart Valve
US$m 2010 2011 2012
Edwards
Surgical heart valve 741.4 784.4 787.5
Transcatheter Heart valve 222.5 333.7 552.1
St. Jude Medical
Structural heart including heart valve ,occluders and etc.
364
597
612
Medtronic*
Structural heart including heart valve
977 1094 1,133
Sorin Group
Heart Valve 161.3 154.2 166.9
Source: Edwards, St. Jude Medical, Medtronic, Sorin Group annual report
*Medtronic is using Financial year 2011,2012,2013
In China, there are only few artificial heart valve manufacturers and most of them
produce mechanical heart valve. Beijing PerMed, a subsidiary of Lifetech, is the only
Chinese company which obtained CFDA approval for distribution of bovine heart
valve in China. The company is currently upgrading its bovine heart valve product
line to international standard and expanding its capacity.
The only CFDA approved Chinese Bovine
Heart Valve producer
Lifetech(8122.HK)
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Graph2: Chinese artificial heart valve manufacturers
Source: Chinese CFDA
According to the data provided by Edwards, among 1m population, there are 382
cases of valve implant surgery in US, 312 cases in Australia, 94 cases in Brazil and
only 34 cases in China. In China, 85% valve implant cases uses mechanical valves
and 15% tissue valves. Internationally, tissue valves take majority of the market.
Medtronic and Lifetech have signed an exclusive global distribution agreement
where Medtronic guaranteed sales value of Liftetech‟s Bovine Heart Valve at
RMB813k in 2013, RMB39m in 2014, RMB56m in 2015, RMB82m in 2016 and
RMB110m in 2017. We think these are conservative initial numbers and are likely to
surprise on the upside.
Medtronic is an active investor/strategic shareholder of Lifetech and may become
controlling shareholder of the company should the second CB be exercised. Thus, it
is likely to allocate more resources in the sales of Liftetech‟s Bovine Heart Valve.
Also, if Lifetech could develop transcatheter heart valve product which is currently in
high demand, Lifetech‟s position in heart valve business would be improved further.
As a result, we are slightly more positive than the guaranteed sales in the
distribution agreement between Medtronic and Lifetech. We expect sales of
RMB917K in 2013, RMB41m in 2014 and RMB60m in 2015. This is based on
assumed sales of 100 sets in 2013,4,500 sets in 2014 and 6,500 sets in 2015.
Table7: PerMEd Bovine Heart Valve
2013 2014 2015
Sales in China(RMBm) 0.92 41 60
Sales volume(set) 100 4500 6500
Selling price(RMB) 9168 9168 9168
Source:Guosen securities (HK)
PerMed
Lifetech(8122.HK)
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2.3 Broncus LungPointR
Based on the data of WHO, cancer is a major cause of death in the world. In 2008,
there were 7.6m people died because of cancer accounting for 13% of the death
population. Lung cancer led most death with 1.37m cases. Study shows that lung
cancer patients diagnosed at Stage I have a survival rate of 88% at 10 years
compared with 15% at 5 years for lung cancer patients diagnosed at Stage III or IV.
According to the annual report of Chinese cancer patient, there were 3.12m new
cancer patients in 2012, of which, over 2m people died mostly because of lung
cancer.
In October 2012, Lifetech and other strategic partners announced the acquisition of
Broncus for further development and commercialization. Lifetech took up a 40%
stake of Broncus for RMB22m. Broncus reported a loss of RMB26m in 2012. In
2013, Lifetech subscribed RMB3m CB of Broncus.
Broncus has developed the navigation system LungPoint®
which enables
physicians to plan bronchoscopic procedures and navigate to precise locations for
diagnosis and treatment of lung cancers in early stage. However, Broncus does not
do well in terms of commercialization of its product. We believe LungPoint®
is a
competitive product compared to the i·Logic™ System developed by an Israel
company superDimension. SuperDimension was acquired by a multinational
company Covidien (COV US market cap:US$29b)at a price of US$300m.
Broncus has also developed FleXNeedle™
which allows tissue sampling for
diagnosis in hard to reach locations within the lungs. In addition, it is developing the
second generation technology, which can find location and diagnose the
peribronchial lesions. This product is good in early detection of lung cancer.
Table8: LungPoint®
&i·Logic™ System
LungPoint®
i·Logic™
Navigation technology Virtual Bronchoscopic Navigation based on CT
Electromagnetic Navigation Bronchsocopy
Error 3mm 9mm
Yields 80%-90% 30%
Cost low high
Installation method Movable Installed in operation room
Source: company data, website of Broncus and superDimension, Guosen Securities (HK)
Broncus LungPoint helps in early
detection and diagnosis of lung cancer.
Lifetech(8122.HK)
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Graph3: LungPoint®
&i·Logic™ System
Source: Covidien & Broncus website
Liftech is now making effort to increase revenue generation and accelerate the
product launch of Broncus in China. Broncus‟ LungPoint®
system was approved by
US FDA in 2013 is likely to get Chinese CFDA approval in 2014 or 2015. We expect
sales will improve going forward and Broncus will start to make positive profit
contribution in 2014.
2.4 Bioabsorbable stents
A stent is a medical device that holds a blood vessel open and keeps it from closing
again. The traditional stent will stay in the human blood vessel forever, which may
lead to blood clots, narrowing of blood vessel, blood vessel face damage and etc.
The current development direction for stent is the use of absorbable stents. When
absorbable stent finish its task, it will be dissolved in the human body. The
bioabsorbable stents are potential replacement of the traditional stents.
The world market of drug eluting stent had a size US$4.6b in 2010. The market has
a high concentration ratio. The key players include Boston Scientific, Abbott and
Medtronic which together share over 70% of the total market. Abbott is the first one
to launch bioabsorbable stent, which is made of polyactide. The product was
granted CE Mark in 2012. The company has launched 2,250 human clinical trials in
2013 and is in the process of application for U.S. FDA.
Lifetech started the R&D of bioabsorbable stent many years ago. In 2008, the
project obtained funding support from the Guangzhou government as one of the key
medical device projects. Lifetech‟s stent uses iron as raw material. It has completed
animal test and is now in the stage of human clinical trial. With a huge world market,
Lifetech‟s new generation stent could have substantial potential if it successfully
replaces the traditional stent in application.
Lifetech is developing bioabsorbable stent
which is a potential replacement of the
traditional stent
i·Logic™
LungPoint®
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3 Strong backing from Medtronic
3.1 Medtronic – a leading international medical device player
Metronic was founded in 1949 in the U.S. Its businesses have expanded to more
than 140 countries with over 46,000 employees across the world. Its business units
include Cardiac & Vascular group, Restorative Therapies Group, and Diabetes
Group and etc. For financial year 2013, its revenue and net earnings were
US$16.6b and US$3.5b respectively with R&D investment of US$1.6b.
3.2 Potential to become the controlling shareholder
In October 2012, Lifetech announced that Medtronic would buy 95m (or 19%) of the
company‟s shares from Orchid Asia at a price of HK$3.8 each. At the same time,
Lifetech and Medtronic had made investment agreements that Medtronic would
subscribe two tranches of convertible bonds amounting HK$152m and HK$2.03b
issued by Lifetech. In January 2013, Medtronic completed the purchase of Liftetech
shares from Orchid Asia and the subscription of the first CB. The first CB carries a
coupon rate of 1% per annum and expires in 5 years. If converted, Medtronic would
have increased its stake in Lifetech to 25%.
Medtronic has not completed the second CB subscription. Based on the agreement,
the initial convertible price is HK$6 with a coupon rate of 1% per annum and expiring
in 5 years. However, the convertible price of the second CB depends on a number of
conditions. The convertible price will be the higher of HK$4.56 per share or the
weighted average of 6 months share price prior to CB conversion if the following
conditions are achieved: 1) Sales of Lifetech reach US$75m (around HK$585m) in
any accumulated 12 month or 2) one of Lifetech‟s products has a mile stone
improvement. If Medtronic does not help Lifetech to reach the above achievements,
Medtronic needs to convert its CB at HK$8 per share. Lifetech would issue 338.6m
new shares upon full conversion of the second CB, raising Medtronic‟s stake to 54%
in the company.
3.3 Substantial synergies
Medtronic stated in its annual report that “With core competencies in materials
research and manufacturing, and a demonstrated track record of important state
research grant awards and tenders, the relationship with LifeTech provides an
opportunity to accelerate Medtronic‟s access in China”.
We believe Lifetech will reap substantial benefit with Medtronic as a strategic
controlling shareholder. Capitalizing on Medtronic‟s extensive reach of more than
140 countries, the Lifetech brand will be significantly be strengthened globally and
distribution channel extensively widened. In addition, there could be many
opportunities of R&D cooperation given that Medtronic has a huge patent library.
Medtronic will potentially become
Lifetech’s controlling shareholder
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4 196% earnings CAGR
For the 6 months ended June 2013, Lifetech reported a net loss of RMB56m
comparing to a net profit of RMB22m last interim. Excluding the RMB64m fair value
changes of CB, core earnings declined 64% to RMB7.6m mainly due to a loss of
RMB8.6m from associated company Broncus and increased SG&A expenses of
RMB16.5m. However, total sales increased 22.3% YoY to RMB108.7m which was
mainly driven by a strong 39.1% YoY growth in stent graft and vena cava filter in the
peripheral vascular disease business segment. Domestic sales increased 20.5%
YoY to RMB80.1m while international sales increased 27.5% YoY to RMB28.6m.
Gross margin was high at 82.9%. Given the low base in sales, SG&A expenses
accounted for 66.7% of total sales.
4.1 New products to boost revenue
We expect a stronger 2H13. The company is stepping up its sales and promotion
efforts both domestically and internationally. For the full year of 2013, we forecast
sales of occluders will increase to RMB125m and sales of VCF and stent in the
peripheral vascular diseases business line will be RMB108m. Gross margin is likely
to be maintained at 80%. However, SG&A expenses as a % of total sales will be
lower at 65%. We forecast core earnings of RMB21m for the full year of 2013
excluding the effect from fair value changes of CB.
Lifetech will see phenomenal growth starting 2014 driven by meaningful
contributions from new products. We expect the LAA closure device LAmbre will
obtain its CE mark in 2014 and sales to the CE mark applied regions are forecast at
RMB92m in 2014. Should the company obtain CFDA approval in 2015, Lifetech can
sell its LAmbre in China in 2015. Together with sales to the CE mark applied region,
we expect sales of LAmbre will jump to RMB229m in 2015. Coupled with the
guaranteed sales under the distribution agreement with Medtronic, turnover of the
company is forecast to jump 85% to RMB434m in 2014 and a 57% to RMB680m in
2015.
Table9: Forecast sales of each product line
Business line
Sales 2013F
(RMBm)
Sales 2014F
(RMBm)
Sales 2015F
(RMBm)
Existing business Line 233 300 391
Occluder 125 149 179
Peripheral vascular diseases business line
108 151 212
New business line 0.9 133 289
LAA closure device 92 229
Bovine heart valve 0.9 41 60
Total 234 434 680
Source: Guosen Securities (HK)
With the introduction of new products, we
forecast a CAGR of 71% in revenue for
2013-15.
2013 interim earnings were dragged by fair
value changes in CB
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4.2 High operating leverage to boost earnings
The company will benefit from exceptionally high operating leverage. The company
will continue to enjoy relatively high gross margin of 80% in the coming few years
given that its products are highly competitive with innovative technology. While
SG&A expenses are expected to rise from RMB152m in 2013 to RMB247m in 2014
and RMB320m in 2015, SG&A expenses as a % of turnover will continue to decline
given the stronger turnover growth. We expect the percentage will fall from 65% in
2013 to 57% in 2014 and 47% in 2015.
The company‟s associated company Broncus is also expected to turnaround from a
net loss of RMB8m in 2013 to a net profitof RMB1.7m in 2014 and RMB3.4m in
2015 should it obtain the CFDA approval in 2014 or 2015. Putting it altogether, we
estimate Lifetech will report a net profit (excluding profit/loss derived from the CB) of
RMB20m in 2013 and a 289% surge to RMB79m in 2014 and a 126% jump to
RMB179m in 2015. This translates into an earnings CAGR of 196% for 2013-15.
Table10: P&L forecast
2013F
(RMBm)
2014F
(RMBm)
2015F
(RMBm)
Sales 234 433 680
Gross profit 187 347 544
Gross margin 80% 80% 80%
SG&A (152) (247) (320)
SG&A ratio 65% 57% 47%
Others (1) (1) (1)
Contribution from Associate (8) 1.7 3.4
Tax (5) (20) (46)
Net profit to non-controlling interest
(0.2) (0.8) (1.8)
Net profit to owners of the company
20 79 179
Net margin 8.7% 18.3% 26.4%
Source: Guosen Securities (HK)
4.3 Financial position
The company was listed on the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong raising HK$156.6m
in November 2011. Approximately HK$102.7m of the IPO proceeds have been used.
In January 2013, the company completed the issue of RMB123m CB to Medtronic.
According to the agreement with Medtronic, the company could raise another
HK$2.03bn from the issue of a second CB to Medtronic.
Given the high operating leverage, we
forecast a CAGR of 196% in earnings for
2013-15
The company had net cash of RMB75m in
June 2013 and should have sufficient
financial resources for future development
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Table11: Use of IPO proceed
Planned Use
(HK$m)
Actual Use
(HK$m)
Enhance market position in key emerging market
6.4 6.1
Develop and commercialize pipeline product
34 34
Expansion to key international market
6.4 6.1
Expansion manufacturing facilities
88 47*
M&A 10 9.5
Source: Company data *land purchase in Shenzhen
Capex is expected to be RMB100m in each of the coming three years mainly for
construction of new production facilities. At the end of June 2013, the company was
in a net cash position of RMB75m. With strong improvement in operating cash flow
going forward and cash proceeds from the second CB issue to Medtronic, the
company should have sufficient fund for development in the coming few years.
5 Valuation and Rating
Mainly driven by the introduction of new products, we forecast Lifetech‟s sales will
increase to RMB234m in 2013, RMB433m in 2014 and RMB680m in 2015
translating into a 71% CAGR for the period. With high operating leverage, net profit
(excluding profit/loss derived from the CB) is expected to rise from RMB20m in 2013
to RMB79m in 2014 and RMB179m in 2015 meaning a 196% CAGR for the period.
Basic EPS are forecast at RMB0.0409 in 2013, RMB0.159 in 2014 and RMB0.359 in
2015. Assuming full conversion of the first CB, Lifetech is expected to issue 40m
new shares. As such, fully diluted EPS would be RMB0.04, RMB0.147 and
RMB0.332 for the coming three years.
Large players with market capitalization of more than US$15bn are trading at PE of
13.7-24.5x in 2014 and 12.9-20.7x in 2015 with a PEG of 1.5-2.5x. Smaller players
with market capitalization of less than US$10bn are trading at PE of 20.5-20.9x in
2014 and 17.4-18.1x in 2015 with a PEG of 0.8-1.2x. Average for the peers is
trading at PE of 18.3x in 2014 and 16.1x in 2015 with a PEG of 1.6x. Lifetech is
trading at PE of 35.2x in 2014 and 15.6x in 2015 with a PEG of 0.08x.
Taking into account of Lifetech‟s small market capitalization, low liquidity, small
earnings base but strong growth prospects with some uncertainties, we set our
target price at HK$9.68 which is based on 23x 2015 PE (a 30% premium over the
average for smaller players). This translates into a low PEG 0.12x. We initiate our
coverage with a BUY rating.
We set our target price at HK$9.68 based
on 23x 2015 PE. We initiate coverage with
a BUY rating.
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Table12: Peers comparison
Price Makcap Net Profit(US$) 13PE 14PE 15PE CAGR 15PEG
Ticker Name US$ US$b 13A 14F 15F (X) (X) (X) 13-15 (X)
MDT US Medtronic 56.32 56 3868 4069 4286 14.7 13.7 12.9 5% 2.5
BSX US Boston
Scientific
12.38 17 585 668 764 28.5 24.5 20.7 14% 1.5
STJ US St. Jude
Medcial
56.65 16 1068 1138 1210 15.2 14.2 13.2 6% 2.0
COV US Covidien 63.6 29 1746 1829 2010 17.1 16.0 14.3 7% 2.0
EW US Edward 77.07 9 352 415 471 25.1 20.9 18.1 16% 1.2
1066 HK Weigao 0.95 4 167 206 247 25.7 20.5 17.4 22% 0.8
average 21.1 18.3 16.1 1.6
Source: Bloomberg(based on share price in 18 Oct. 2013), Guosen Securities (HK)
6 Investment risks
Low liquidity. With a small market capitalization of HK$3bn and majority
shareholders are long-term investors, liquidity for Lifetech is low. Average daily
turnover was only HK$689k in the past 6 months.
Delays in commercialization. The LAA occluder and Bovine Heart Valve are the
major drivers for the underlying strong growth in the coming few years. There could
be big impacts if there is any delay in the registration process for the LAA occluder
or the production facility upgrade for Bovine heart value.
Government policy. As Lifetech‟s products are being sold both domestically and
internationally, any unexpected government policy changes in China or other
countries, particularly the EU, could have potential negative impact on the company.
Investment risks are low liquidity, delays
in commercialization and government
policy
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7 Appendix
Key Management profile
Name Position Key Experience
Xie Yuehui Chairman He graduated from Kunming institute of Technology with a degree in Materials specializing in pressurized processing of metals in 1991. Then he has 4 years experience in Finance Industry and 5 years industrial management experience. He joined Lifetech in 2000, become the chairman of the company in 2005
Michael Zhao CEO He was top sales in international company Johnson & Johnson. He also worked for international company, such as Cordis, Ciba Geigy AG. He joined Lifetech as CEO in 2010.
Zhang Xingdong Independent
non-executive director
He graduated from Sichuan University in solid mechanics in 1960. He received numerous awards in research, including the National Science and Technology Progress Award. He is also the member of Chinese Committee of Biological materials, International Union of Societies of Biomaterials Science and Engineering, Chinese Academy of Engineering and Executive Committee of the international Engineering and Regenerative Medicine China (Asia Pacific) Association.
Zhang Deyuan CTO He got his doctorate‟s degree in University of Science and Technology, Beijing, in the department of physical chemistry in 2001. He has over 24 years experience in R&D in materials. In 2002 to 2006, he served as the director at the R&D department of the National R&D center for surface engineering in China. He joined Lifetech in 2006.
Source: Company data
Shareholder Structure
Shareholder Current position
Conversion of
First Tranche CB
Conversion of Second
Tranche CB
Shareholder % of total Shares % of total Shares % of total Shares
Medtronic 19% 95m 25% 135m 54% 474m
Chairman Xie 19.7% 98.7m 18.3% 98.7m 11.2% 98.7m
Non-executive Director WU
15.9% 79.7m 14.8% 79.7m 9.1% 79.7m
CEO Zhao 2.7% 13.6m 2.5% 13.6m 1.5% 13.6m
Themes Investment 17.3% 86.5m 16% 86.5m 9.8% 86.5m
Others 25.3% 126.5m 23.4% 126.5m 14.4% 126.5m
Total 100% 500m 100% 540m 100% 879m
Source:HKex, Company data
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1 致力于创新医疗器械的开发
1.1 公司背景介绍
先健科技成立于 1999 年,主要从事治疗心脑血管和周围血管疾病的微创介入医疗器
械的研发、生产和销售。 公司致力于创新医疗器械的开发。2009 年,公司推出自主
研发的第二代 Cera 封堵器系列,该系列产品采用镍钛合金线框陶瓷涂层加强生物相
容性,公司为全球唯一在市场推出具有陶瓷涂层技术的封堵器公司。目前公司是全球
第二大先心病封堵器供应商,新兴市场(包括中国、印度、俄罗斯和巴西)的最大供
应商。公司于 2011 年 11 月在香港交易所创业板上市。2013 年 5 月公司正式递交了
转主板的申请。
表1: 先健科技的发展历程
时间 事件
1999 年 深圳先健科技发展有限公司成立
2001 年 HeartR™ 封堵器和 Supporter™ 冠脉支架获得中国注册证
2003 年 先健被评为“深圳市高新技术企业”
2005 年 谢粤辉成为公司主席
2006 年 先健在开曼群岛注册成立控股公司、引入兰馨亚洲作为策略投资者
2008 年 先健成立印度子公司
先健被评为“国家级高新技术企业”
收购北京普惠(生物瓣膜制造企业)
“表面改性的金属生物可吸收血管支架”项目获得广东省医疗器械重大研究专项资助
2009 年 Cera™ ASD、VSD、PDA 封堵器获得 CE 认证
拓展至欧盟 CE 认证认可国家和地区
“具有纳米修饰的心血管植入器件材料”项目和“可控式人造主动脉弓覆膜支架的研究与应用”项目分别获得国家重点基础研究发展计划(973 计划)及国家高技术研究发展计划(863 计划)资助
“生物可吸收复合材料大血管支架的研究”项目被纳入广东省学研合作项目
2010 年 曾在多家跨国公司担任高级管理层的赵亦伟加入公司并担任公司的执行总裁
SeQure™管腔抓捕系统获得美国 FDA 批准
Fustar™可调弯鞘、Cera™血管塞、Acumark™测量球囊导管、SeQure ™抓捕器及 Cera™筛孔 ASD 封堵器获得 CE 认证
在德国和法国进行 Spider™ PFO 的临床试验
成为“博士后科研工作站”
2011 年 Fustar™可调弯鞘获得美国 FDA 批准
“全降解血管支架材料关键技术及产品研发”项目获得国家高技术研发发展计划(863 计划)资助
CeraFlex™系列封堵器及血管塞获得 CE 认证
牛心瓣膜产品获得中国注册证
在香港交易所上市
2012 年 美敦力入股
启动 LAA 封堵器人类临床试验
Cera PFO、CeraFlex PFO、Spider PFO 及 Lawmax Dilator 產品获得 CE 认证
资料来源:公司资料、国信证券(香港)
1.2 产品组合
先健科技拥有一支超过 71 人的研发团队。公司技术总监张德元是材料研发方面的专
家,曾为国家 863 计划材料表面技术研究开发中心研发部总监,并在材料应用领域曾
获多项奖项。世界级生物材料科学专家张兴栋也是公司的研发顾问。同时,公司与多
家著名医院(包括北京阜外医院,德国圣卡塔林娜医院)有研发合作关系。经过多年
的发展,先健科技已经成功开发、销售了多款产品,在心脑血管和周围血管疾病领域
全球第二大先心病封堵器供应商,拥有独特的陶瓷涂层封堵器。
先健科技拥有一支由著名专家带领的超过71 人的研发团队。目前有超过 27 款医疗器械产品销往全球不同地区。
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有丰富的医疗器械产品。公司目前有超过 27 款医疗器械产品销往全球不同地区,包
括中国、印度、欧洲、南美等。
表2: 先健科技的主要产品
品牌 产品 主要销售市场 正式推出年份
HeartR 心脏封堵器系列 中国、俄罗斯、印度、越南
2001 年
Cera 心脏封堵器系列 欧盟国家、中国、越南、俄罗斯、巴西、土耳其、约丹
2009 年
CeraFlex 心脏封堵器系列 欧盟国家 2011 年
CeraFlex PFO 欧盟国家 2012 年
Blue Arrow PBMV 球囊导管 中国、印度、巴西、欧盟国家
1996 年
Red Arrow PBPV 球囊导管 土耳其、越南、巴西 2009 年
Green Arrow PBAV 球囊导管 欧盟国家 2010 年
SteerEase 导管鞘 中国、俄罗斯、印度、巴西、欧盟国家
2006 年
SeQure 抓捕器 土耳其 2009 年
Aegisy 腔静脉滤器 印度、欧盟国家、巴西 2005 年
Ankura 覆膜支架 中国、越南 2004 年
Cera 血管塞 欧盟国家 2010 年
CeraFlex 血管塞 欧盟国家 2011 年
FuStar 可控导管鞘 欧盟国家、美国 2009 年
PerMed 牛心包瓣膜 中国 2011 年
资料来源:公司资料、国信证券(香港)
2 即将进入新纪元
先健科技的多项在研产品已经开始或者即将开始他们的商业化进程。基于我们的评估,
这些新产品有巨大的市场潜力。
表3: 先健科技的主要在研产品
品牌 产品 目前的进程
LAmbre 左心耳封堵器 已经在欧盟和中国启动临床实验
待定 可降解心脏支架 即将启动临床试验
待定 生物可吸收 CHD 封堵器 研发阶段
资料来源:公司资料、国信证券(香港)
2.1 LAmbre 左心耳封堵器
心房颤动(简称房颤)是一种心率紊乱现象。房颤病人因心房不能正常收缩,以致心脏
血液容易形成血块,若血块流到脑部将引致中风。中风在许多国家都是高医疗成本的
一致疾病。近年的研究发现,左心耳不仅是血栓形成的常见部位,也是房性心律失常
产生的重要部位。非瓣膜性和非风湿性房颤患者中,约 90%的血栓源自左心耳。目前
房颤病人预防中风的最普遍的方法是长期口服抗凝血药物,但抗凝血药物有导致出血
的风险,且有部分病患(特别是肾衰竭病人)是无法长期服用抗凝血药物的。
多款新产品已经开始或者即将开始其商业化进程。
对高危中风的房颤病人而言,左心耳封堵微创手术是长期服用抗凝血药物的最佳替代方案。先健科技的 LAmbre 左心耳封堵器可能会是市场上最方便使用的一款。
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左心耳封堵微创手术被证明对预防房颤(Atrial fibrillation AF)导致的中风效果显著。
市场专家认为对房颤病人而言,左心耳封堵微创手术是长期服用抗凝血药物的替代方
案。
世界龙头医疗器械企业波士顿科学(波科)(BSX US 市值:US$17b)于 2011 年以 3.75
亿美元(约 29 亿港元)收购了拥有左心耳封堵器技术的 Atritech,波科在其收购公
告中明确表示相信对高危中风的房颤患者而言左心耳封堵微创手术将是口服抗凝血药
治疗方案的最佳替代方案,并表示该产品在其未来的产品组合中将扮演重要角色。圣
犹德(STJ US 市值:US$16b) 2010 年以 10.46 亿美元(约 81 亿港元)收购了 AGA,
目标是获得其包括其 Amplatzer 左心耳封堵器在内的结构性心脏病产品。
先健科技开发了以 LAmbre 为品牌的左心耳封堵器。该产品目前正在中国和欧洲进行
人体临床实验。我们预期该产品于 2014 年获得欧盟 CE 认证,2015 年获得中国注册
证。获得认证后,LAmbre 将在使用地区进行销售。
比较目前市场上的其他 2 款左心耳封堵器,我们认为先健的产品有很强的竞争力。香
港沙田威尔斯亲王医院心脏科医生同时也是香港结构性心脏病学会会长林逸贤医生是
波科、圣犹德、先健三家公司的左心耳封堵器产品的顾问。他在他的文章“A new left
atrial appendage occlude (Lifetech LAmbreTM
Device) for stroke prevention in atrial
fibrillation-Cardiovasc Revasc Med 2013” 中表示先健的左心耳封堵器 LAmbre 操
作步骤比波科的 WATCHMAN 和圣犹德的 Amplatzer 更容易,这样大多数心脏科医
生可以很自信的完成左心耳封堵手术,并且不会产生其他并发症。林医生认为 LAmbre
有潜力成为世界上最有竞争力的左心耳封堵器。
表4: 全球主要左心耳封堵器产品比较
波科 圣犹德 先健
WATCHMAN ACP LAmbre
即刻阻断血流效果 差 好 好
适应症 只适合长型左心耳 各种形状都适合 各种形状都适合
手术安全性 封堵器过长有戳破
左心耳壁风险
安全 安全
封堵器能否反复回鞘 不能 不能 能
输送鞘尺寸 14Fr.
(内径 4.7mm)最粗
9-13Fr.
(内径3-4.3mm)中等
8-10Fr.
(内径 2.7-3.3mm)最细
产品后退 无 有 无
资料来源:公司资料、国信证券(香港)
林逸贤医生在 2013 年上海东方心脏病学会议演讲资料、
Lifetech(8122.HK)
2013 年 10 月 23 日
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图 1: WATCHMAN、AMPLATZER、LAmbre
资料来源:国信证券(香港)
房颤在一般人群中的发病率约为 0.5%-1%,随着年龄的增长而增高,在 60 岁以上人
群中的发病率约为 4%,在 80 岁以上人群中发病率增加到约 9%。左心耳封堵器市场
前景广阔,据 MedTech Insight 估计,市场规模可以超过每年 10 亿美元。
波科的左心耳封堵器 WATCHMAN 已经获得欧盟 CE 认证并预期于 2013 年年底获得
美国 FDA 认证。波科 WATCHMAN2012 年的销售额为 0.15 亿美元。波科预计其销
售到 2017 年可以达到 2 亿美元。圣犹德的左心耳封堵器已经获得了欧盟 CE 认证,
目前正在申请美国 FDA 认证。我们预期 LAmbre 将于 2014 年获得欧盟 CE 认证,2015
年获得中国注册证。
我们认为 LAmbre 比较 WATCHMAN 和 Amplatzer 是有很强的竞争力的。我们假设
2014 年 LAmbre 的销售量为 5000 套,出厂价为人民币 18336 每套,我们估计在 2014
年,该产品在欧盟认证可适用地区将产生人民币 9200 万元(约 1500 万美元)收入(6
个月的贡献),2015 年将产生人民币 1.83 亿元(约 3000 万美元)的收入。我们预计,
获得中国注册证后,2015 年该产品在中国地区该产品将产生人民币 4584 万元的贡献
(6 个月的贡献)。
表5: LAmbre 销售情况估算
2014F
2015F
欧盟认证适用地区销售额(人民币百万元) 92 183
销售量(套) 5000 10000
销售价格(人民币) 18,336 18,336
销售价格(美元) 3000 3000
中国地区销售额(人民币百万元) 46
销售量(套) 5000
销售价格(人民币) 9,168
总销售额(人民币百万元) 92 229
资料来源:国信证券(香港)
WATCHMAN
ACP LAmbre
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2.2 牛心包瓣膜
人工心脏瓣膜是可植入心脏内代替心脏瓣膜(主动脉瓣、肺动脉瓣、三尖瓣、二尖瓣)
具有天然心脏瓣膜功能的人工器官。目前人工瓣膜主要包括机械瓣膜和生物瓣膜两大
类。目前人工瓣膜全球的主要生产商是爱德华、美敦力、圣犹德。
表6: 全球主要心脏瓣膜企业心脏瓣膜年销售额
百万美元 2010 2011 2012
爱德华
手术用心脏瓣膜 741.4 784.4 787.5
导管心脏瓣膜 222.5 333.7 552.1
圣犹德
包括心脏瓣膜和封堵器等的结构性心脏病产品
364
597
612
美敦力*
包括心脏瓣膜等的结构性心脏病产品
977 1094 1,133
索林集团
心脏瓣膜 161.3 154.2 166.9
资料来源:爱德华、美敦力、圣犹德、索林集团公司年报
*美敦力为财务年度 2011 财年、2012 财年、2013 财年
中国目前人工瓣膜的生产企业很少,主要是生产机械瓣膜,目前只有先健科技附属公
司北京普惠获得生物瓣膜的中国注册证。美敦力已经与公司订立普惠牛心瓣膜产品的
全球独家分销协议。目前公司正在按照国际标准对牛心瓣膜产品的生产线进行改造和
产能扩张。
图 2: 中国人工心脏瓣膜生产企业
资料来源:国家药监局
爱德华于 2012 年 9 月在上海成立中国区总部发展心脏瓣膜业务。爱德华提供的数据
显示,每 100 万人中,美国外科瓣膜植入手术的人数为 382 人,澳大利亚为 312,巴
西为 94 人,而中国仅为 34 人。目前中国 85%的心脏瓣膜市场为机械瓣膜,15%为生
物瓣膜,而国际市场则以生物瓣膜为主。
美敦力已经与公司签订分销协议,为公司的全球独家分销商。我们看到公司公告提及
分销协议项下交易的建议年底上限如下: 2013 年人民币 81.3 万元;2014 年人民币
公司是在中国唯一获得牛心瓣膜注册证的中
国企业.
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3969 万元;2015 年人民币 5627 万元;2016 年人民币 8151 万元;2017 年人民币
1.1 亿元。我们认为该分销协议是比较保守的,分销额度有提升的可能性。
美敦力已经是公司的策略投资者,并且有可能成为公司的控股股东。因此美敦力可能
在将来分配更多的资源在先健牛心包瓣膜的销售上。另外,先健若能获得目前市场需
求巨大的导管瓣膜技术,则其牛心包瓣膜销售将出现进一步的大幅提升。
我们目前的预测轻微高于美敦力的包销协议。假设 2013 年,2014 年,2015 年的销
售量分别为 100 套,4500 套,6500 套,我们预计 2013 年的销售额为人民币 91.7 万
元,2014 年为人民币 4100 万元,2015 年为人民币 6000 万元。
表7: PerMed 牛心包瓣膜销售情况估算
2013F
2014F
2015F
中国地区销售额(人民币百万元) 0.92 41 60
销售量(套) 100 4500 6500
销售价格(人民币) 9,168 9,168 9,168
资料来源:国信证券(香港)
2.3 肺癌早期检测前景广阔
根据世界卫生组织的报道,癌症是全世界的一个主要死亡原因,2008 年的癌症死亡人
数达 760 万(约占所有死亡人数的 13%),其中死亡率最高的是肺癌有 137 万例死亡。
研究表明早期肺癌(第一阶段)若获得诊断治疗,10 年生存率可达到 88%,而到第
三阶段或者第四阶段则 5 年生存率仅为 15%。最新版《2012 中国肿瘤登记年报》显
示,中国每年新发癌症病例约 312 万人,因癌症死亡超过 200 万人,中国人死亡最多
的癌种是肺癌。
2012 年 10 月,先健和其他策略投资宣布收购美国研发型公司 Broncus Holding
Corporation,致力于其产品的进一步开发及加速其商业化运作。先健于投资了约人民
币 2168 万获得 Broncus40%的股权。Broncus 于 2012 年产生人民币 2600 万亏损。
2013 年,先健科技又认购了其人民币 300 万的可换股债权。
Broncus 已经开发了 LungPoint®
导航系统,使内科医生执行支气管镜程序,然后透过
导航在肺部进行精确定位以进行肺癌的早期诊断及治疗肺癌。但是公司在该产品的商
业化运作不佳,公司仍然亏损。该产品的主要与色列公司 superDimension 的产品
i·Logic™ System 竞争。superDimension 于 2012 年 5 月被跨国公司柯惠医疗(COV
US 市值:US$29b)以 3 亿美元收购。
同时,Broncus 也开发了 FleXNeedle™
活体组织穿刺针,其灵活性可用使其进入很难
到达的肺部的位臵获取组织样本。Broncus 正在开发第二代技术,可以实现支气管外
病变部位的定位和活检。
公司收购的美国公司 Broncus 的肺癌早期诊
断系统和器械技术领先,预期其销售能力会进
一步加强,获得中国注册证后发展更加快速。
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23
表8: LungPoint®与 i·Logic™ System 产品比较
LungPoint®
i·Logic™
导航基础 基于 CT 技术的数字化虚拟导航
导航跟踪器电磁导航
误差 3mm 9mm
Yields 80%-90% 30%
使用成本 较低 高
安装方式 移动式工作站 必须在手术室内安装
资料来源:公司资料、国信证券(香港)
图 3: LungPoint®与 i·Logic™ System
资料来源:柯惠医疗和 broncus 网站
先健科技正致力于提升 Broncus 的销售收入和帮助发展中国市场。其产品已经获得美
国 FDA 的批文。我们估计其可能于 2014 年或者 2015 年获得中国注册证。我们预计
随着公司销售水平的提升,该公司可能于 2014 年开始盈利。
2.4 可降解心脏支架进入人体临床试验阶段
支架是一种医疗器械,它可以支撑狭窄闭塞段血管,减少血管弹性回缩及再塑形,保
持管腔血流畅通。传统的金属心脏支架会永久留在血管内,容易导致血栓形成、再狭
窄、血管壁损伤等问题。目前的研究方向是使用人体可吸收支架,支架在完成其使命
后,逐步在人体溶解,被人体吸收。
2010 年全球药物涂层支架市场为约 46 亿美元。市场集中度高。国际龙头企业-波科
(Boston Scientific)、雅培(Abbott)、美敦力(Medtronics)、占据超过 70%的市场份
额。雅培是世界上第一家推出生物可吸收支架的企业,其生物可吸收支架采用了高分
子材料,于 2012 年获得欧洲的 CE 认证,2013 年公司启动了 2250 例人体临床试验
以支持其申请美国 FDA 的注册证。
先健科技多年前已经开始可吸收支架的研究。2008 年,公司的“表面改性的金属生物
可吸收血管支架”项目获得广东省医疗器械重大研究专项资助。其研究方向是以铁为
原材料。公司已经完成该产品的动物试验,正在启动人体临床试验。全球支架市场规
公司一直在进行可降解心脏支架的研发,该产
品是传统支架的一个替代产品。
i·Logic™
LungPoint®
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模庞大,先健的可降解支架若能成功,有可能成为传统支架的替代产品,发展前景将
非常广阔。
3 美敦力为公司提供强大的支持
3.1 美敦力-世界医疗器械行业的龙头
美敦力于 1949 年在美国成立。其业务已经拓展到 140 个国家,包括 46,000 名雇员。
其业务覆盖心脏血管、恢复性治疗、糖尿病等。2013 财年,其收入和利润分别为 166
亿美元和 35 亿美元,研发开支达到 16 亿美元。
3.2 美敦力可能成为公司的控股股东
2012 年 10 月,公司宣布美敦力将以每股 3.8 港元的价格收购原股东兰馨的 9500 万股
(19%)。同时,美敦力也与先健签订了投资协议,分 2 次分别认购本金为 1.52 亿港元
和 20.3 亿港元的可换股票据。美敦力已经于 2013 年 1 月完成兰馨股权的收购和第一
批可换股票据。第一批可换股票据的认购价为 3.8 港元,利率为 1%,5 年后到期。若
第一批可换股票据转换成股权,美敦力将拥有公司 25%的股权。
美敦力尚未完成第二批可换股票据的认购。根据协议,初步换股价为 6 港元,利率为
1%,5 年后到期。换股价为浮动换股价。假如如下条款实现:1)先健于任何指定连
续 12 个月期间的总营业额不低于 0.75 亿美元(约 5.85 亿港元);或者 2)投资协议
所订明的其中一个产品开发里程碑已获达成,换股价为每股 4.56 港元或者换股前 6
个月加权平均市场价中较高者,若上述条款未达成而美敦力进行换股行为的话则换股
价为每股 8 港元。若第二批可换股票据转换成股权,先健科技将发行 3.4 亿新股,美
敦力将拥有公司 54%的股权。
3.3 重大的协同效应
美敦力在其年报中提及,先健科技在材料的研究和生产上具备核心竞争力,公司获得
多项重要的国家研发奖励,与先健科技的关系有利于加速美敦力在中国市场的发展。
我们认为先健引入美敦力作为策略投资者意义重大。美敦力的网络遍布全球 140 多个
国家,美敦力入股后,先健的品牌形象将在全球获得重大的提升,其产品销售渠道也
可以大幅的扩张。另外,公司也有机会受益于美敦力强大的研发能力。
4 净利润将平均增长 196%
2013 年上半年,先健科技的报表利润为人民币 5604 万元亏损,而 2012 年上半年为
人民币 2187 万利润。若扣除人民币 6396 万元可换股票公平值变动带来的账面损失,
美敦力有可能成为公司的控股股东。
2013 年中期业绩受到可换股债券的影响。
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核心利润下降 64%为人民币 760 万元,主要因为有人民币 863 万元亏损来自联营公
司 Broncus,同时三项费用增加了人民币 1650 万元。然而,总销售额实现了 22.3%的
增长为人民币 1.09 亿元,其中周边血管病业务线增长了 39.1%。国内的销售增长了
20.5%为人民币 8010 万元,而海外业务增长了 27.5%为人民币 2860 万元。因为目前
销售额还处于较低水平,三项费用投入相对较大,占公司销售额的 66.7%。
4.1 预计新产品将大幅提升销售收入
基于公司正在加强国内外销售的推广力度,我们预计 2013 年下半年公司的销售情况
将好于上半年。2013 年全年,我们预计封堵器业务将为人民币 1.25 亿元,周边血管
病业务的销售额将为人民币 1.08 亿元。 毛利可能维持在 80%。然而,三项费率的比
重将略微下降为 65%。我们预计不计可换股票公平值变动可能产生的账面盈亏,公司
的 2013 年全年的核心利润预计为人民币 2141 万元。
先健科技的销售收入将在 2014 年开始飞速增长,主要受益于新产品的重大贡献。我
们预计左心耳封堵器产品将于 2014 年获得欧盟 CE 认证而在该认证适用的地区推出
产生人民币 0.9 亿的收入,预计 2015 年该产品获得中国注册证而在中国地区推出,
中国加 CE 认证认可地区的总销售额达到人民币 2.3 亿元。加上公司与美敦力的协议,
我们预计公司 2014 年的销售额将增长 85%达到人民币 4.34 亿元,2015 年增长 57%
达到人民币 6.8 亿元。
表9: 先健科技各主要产品销售情况预测
分类业务
2013F 销售收入
(RMB 百万元)
2014F 销售收入
(RMB 百万元)
2015F 销售收入
(RMB 百万元))
现有业务 233 300 391
封堵器 125 149 179
周边血管病业务 108 151 212
新业务 0.9 133 289
左心耳封堵器 92 229
牛心瓣膜 0.9 41 60
总计 234 433 680
资料来源:国信证券(香港)
4.2 经营杠杆效应将大幅提升盈利能力
公司将受益于经营杠杆效应。因为公司的产品是竞争力强的创新产品,我们认为公司
在未来几年仍然可以保持其 80%的高毛利水平。我们预计三项费用 2013 年、2014
年、2015 年将分别为人民币 1.5 亿元、人民币 2.5 亿元、人民币 3.2 亿元。但三项费
用占收入比将逐步递减从 2013 年的 65%到 2014 年的 57%到 2015 年的 47%。
我们预计 Broncus 的产品将于 2014 年或者 2015 年获得中国注册证,来自联营公司
Broncus 的贡献预计将从 2013 年的人民币 8 百万元的亏损转为 2014 年、2015 年盈
利人民币 172 万元和人民币 344 万元。
基于经营杠杆效应,公司盈利能力可能大幅提
升,我们预计 2013 年至 2015 年的利润平均增
长为 196%。
预计新产品的推出将推动公司 2013 年至 2015
年的销售收入平均增幅达 71%。
Lifetech(8122.HK)
2013 年 10 月 23 日
国信证券(香港)
研究报告仅代表分析员个人观点,请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明。
26
我们预计先健科技 2013 年的总利润将为人民币 2043 万元,2014 年增长 289%为人
民币 7939 万元,2015 年增长 126%为人民币 1.8 亿元(不计可换股票公平值变动可
能产生的账面盈亏)。
表10: 先健科技利润表预测
2013F
(RMB 百万元)
2014F
(RMB 百万元)
2015F
(RMB 百万元))
销售收入 234 433 680
毛利 187 347 544
毛利率 80% 80% 80%
三项费用 (152) (247) (320)
三项费用率 65% 57% 47%
其他 (1) (1) (1)
联营公司贡献 (8) 1.7 3.4
所得税开支 (5) (20) (46)
非控股股东利润 (0.2) (0.8) (1.8)
控股股东净利润 20 79 179
净利率 8.7% 18.3% 26.4%
资料来源:国信证券(香港)
4.3 财务状况
公司于 2011 年 11 月在香港联交所上市,融资 1.6 亿港元。到 2013 年中,约 1 亿港
元已经用于公司发展。2013 年 1 月,公司完成发行价值人民币 1.2 亿元的可换股债券
与美敦力。根据其与美敦力的协议,公司可以发行第二批价值 20.3 亿港元的可换股债
券与美敦力。
表11: IPO 资金使用情况
计划额度
(RMB 百万元)
实际使用额度
(RMB 百万元)
提升在新兴市场的市场地位
6.4 6.1
继续开发和商业化开发中的产品
34 34
拓展至主要国家市场 6.4 6.1
扩建生产设施 88 47*
并购 10 9.5
资料来源:公司资料 *在深圳购买的土地
我们预计公司未来三年的资本开支为人民币 1 亿元每年。截止 2013 年 6 月底,公司
在手净现金为人民币 0.75 亿元。随着公司未来盈利水平的大幅提升,以及美敦力可换
股债券的支持,我们认为公司应该有非常充裕的资金发展业务。
截止 2013 年 6 月底,公司在手净现金为人民
币 0.75 亿元。随着公司盈利水平的提升,公司
有足够的资金进行未来的发展。
Lifetech(8122.HK)
2013 年 10 月 23 日
国信证券(香港)
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27
5 估值和评级
受益于新产品的推出,我们预计先健科技的销售额于 2013 年、2014 年、2015 年将
分别为人民币 2.3 亿元、人民币 4.3 亿元、人民币 6.8 亿元,复合增长率为 71%。经
营杠杆效应将推动其盈利平均增长 196%,2013 年、2014 年、2015 年分别为人民币
2043 万元、人民币 7939 万元、人民币 1.8 亿元(不计可换股票公平值变动可能产生
的账面盈亏)。基本的每股盈利 2013 年为人民币 0.0409 元,2014 年为人民币 0.159
元,2015 年为人民币 0.359 元。假设第一批可换股票据全部转成股票,先健科技预期
发行 4000 万股新股,如此计,摊薄后的每股盈利分别为人民币 0.04 元、人民币 0.147
元、人民币 0.332 元。
在与先健同行业的公司中,市值超过 150 亿美元的大公司的 2014 年的平均市盈率为
13.7-24.5 倍,2015 年为 12.9-20.7 倍,PEG 为 1.5-2.5 倍。市值小于 100 亿美元的
公司的 2014 年的平均市盈率为 20.5-20.9 倍,2015 年为 17.4-18.1 倍,PEG 为 0.8-1.2
倍。同行业公司 2014 年的平均市盈率为 18.3 倍,2015 年为 16.1 倍,PEG 为 1.6 倍。
先健科技目前的 2014 年的市盈利为 35.2 倍,2015 年为 15.6 倍,PEG 为 0.08 倍。
考虑到先健科技目前的规模还小、股票成交量低、盈利基数小、发展存在不确定性因
素,但公司可能会有非常强劲的增长,我们基于 2015 年 23 倍市盈率(较小于 100
亿美元市值公司的平均市盈率高 30%),获得公司目标价为 9.68 港元,代表仅 0.12
倍 PEG。我们首次覆盖公司并给予买入评级。
表12: 同业比较
股价 市值 净利润(US$) 13PE 14PE 15PE CAGR 15PEG
交易代码 公司名称 US$ US$b 13A 14F 15F (X) (X) (X) 13-15 (X)
MDT US Medtronic 56.32 56 3868 4069 4286 14.7 13.7 12.9 5% 2.5
BSX US Boston
Scientific
12.38 17 585 668 764 28.5 24.5 20.7 14% 1.5
STJ US St. Jude
Medcial
56.65 16 1068 1138 1210 15.2 14.2 13.2 6% 2.0
COV US Covidien 63.6 29 1746 1829 2010 17.1 16.0 14.3 7% 2.0
EW US Edward 77.07 9 352 415 471 25.1 20.9 18.1 16% 1.2
1066 HK Weigao 0.95 4 167 206 247 25.7 20.5 17.4 22% 0.8
average 21.1 18.3 16.1 1.6
资料来源:彭博资讯(基于 2013 年 10 月 18 日股价)、国信证券(香港)
6 投资风险
流动性低. 公司为 30 亿港元市值的小市值公司,大部分投资者为长线投资者,公司股
票的流动性很低。过去 6 个月的平均成交量仅为 69 万港元。
我们认为投资该公司将面临目前流动性比较低
的风险、产品商业化时间表延迟的风险、以及
政策性风险。
基于 2015 年 23 倍市盈率,我们的目标价为
9.68.我们建议买入。
Lifetech(8122.HK)
2013 年 10 月 23 日
国信证券(香港)
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28
产品商业化时间表延迟。左心耳封堵器和牛心包瓣膜是公司未来几年的发展的主要推
动力。左心耳封堵器获得批文的时间延迟或者牛心包瓣膜生产设施升级的时间延迟可
能对公司发展产生重大影响。
政策性风险。先健科技的产品在国内外都有销售。在中国或者其他国家,特别是欧盟
国家,发生的不可预见的相关政策性变动可能对公司有重大影响。
7 附录
主要管理层介绍
姓名 职务 主要经历
谢粤辉 主席 于 1991 年毕业于昆明工学院,获得金属压力加工专业学士学位。之后有 4 年金融行业,5 年工业企业管理经验。 与 2000 年加入先健科技,2005 年成为公司主席。
赵亦伟 行政总裁 曾为强生公司杰出销售人员。并曾在多家国际医疗器械公司担任高级职务。于 2010 年加入先健并任命为行政总裁。
张兴栋 独立非执行董事 于 1960 年毕业于四川大学,获得固体物理专业学士学位。其研究成果曾经获得多项奖项,包括国家科技进步奖。目前是国际生物材料科学与工程学会联合会、中国工程院及国际组织工程与再生医学学会大陆(亚太)理事会成员。
张德元 技术总监 于 2001 年获得北京科技大学物理化学系博士学位。于材料研发方面有超过 24 年经验。2002 年至 2006 年,曾任国际 863 计划材料表面技术研究开发中心研发部总监。于 2006 年加入先健。
资料来源:公司数据
股东结构
目前的持股情况 第一批 CB 转换后 第二批 CB 转换后
股东名称 占比 股数 占比 股数 占比 股数
美敦力 19% 95m 25% 135m 54% 474m
谢粤辉 19.7% 98.7m 18.3% 98.7m 11.2% 98.7m
邬建辉 15.9% 79.7m 14.8% 79.7m 9.1% 79.7m
赵亦伟 2.7% 13.6m 2.5% 13.6m 1.5% 13.6m
Themes Investment 17.3% 86.5m 16% 86.5m 9.8% 86.5m
其他 25.3% 126.5m 23.4% 126.5m 14.4% 126.5m
总计 100% 500m 100% 540m 100% 879m
资料来源:香港交易所、公司数据
Lifetech(8122.HK)
2013 年 10 月 23 日
国信证券(香港)
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29
Financial Summary
Profit & Loss (RMB m) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F Financial Ratios 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F
Occluder 95 104 125 149 179 Revenue growth (%) 34 29 29 86 57
LAA closure device - - - 92 229 Operating profit growth (%) (54) 229 (32) 185 125
Bovin heart valve - - 1 41 60 Reported profit growth (%) 199 171 (36) 289 126
Peripheral vascular product 45 77 108 151 212 Underlying profit growth (%) (22) 44 (36) 289 126
Revenue 140 181 234 434 680 Underlying EPS growth (%) (55) (100) (42) 289 126
Cost of sales (27) (36) (47) (87) (136) Dividend growth (%) - - - - -
Gross profit 113 145 187 347 544 Dividend payout (%) - - - - -
Other net income (9) 10 0 0 0 Gross profit margin (%) 80 80 80 80 80
SG&A expenses (89) (103) (152) (247) (320) Operating profit margin (%) 11 29 15 23 33
Operating profit 16 52 35 100 224 Underlying profit margin (%) 16 18 9 18 26
Finance income/costs - - (1) (1) (1) ROE (%) 4 11 6 20 31
Fair value change from CB 3 - - - - ROA (%) 4 9 4 13 21
Associates & JCE 0 (10) (8) 2 3 Net debt/equity (%) - - - - -
Profit before taxation 19 41 26 100 227 Net debt/total assets (%) - - - - -
Taxation (7) (9) (5) (20) (45) Current ratio (%) 7 6 8 4 4
Non-controlling interests (1) (1) (0) (1) (2) Interest cover (x) - - 27 101 228
Net profit 12 32 20 79 179 Dividend cover (x) - - - - -
Balance Sheet (RMB m) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F Cash Flows (RMB m) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F
Fixed assets 18 27 104 194 274 Operating profit 16 52 35 100 224
Associates & JCE 0 11 3 5 8 Depreciation & amortization 6 7 4 11 20
Others 17 46 100 99 99 Interest income (0) (0) - - -
Non-current assets 36 84 208 298 381 Others (1) (2) 3 (1) (1)
Inventories 21 25 26 48 75 Change in working capital (2) (4) (14) (47) (57)
Debtors & prepayments 46 53 70 128 199 Tax paid (7) (9) (13) (20) (45)
Bank deposits & cash 185 198 199 142 182 Operating activities 12 43 15 43 141
Others 25 4 0 0 0 Purchase of non-current assets (15) (29) (100) (100) (100)
Current assets 277 280 295 317 456 Disposal of non-current assets 0 0 - - -
Bank & other borrowings - - - - - Associates & JCE (net) 0 (22) (3) - -
Trade & payables 35 37 38 71 112 Interest received 1 2 - - -
Taxation 5 8 - - - others (25) 19 (31) - -
Current liabilities 41 44 38 71 112 Investing activities (39) (29) (134) (100) (100)
Bank & other borrowings - - 123 123 123 Issue of new shares 159 - - - -
Others 5 19 19 19 19 Issue of CB - - 119 - -
Non-current liabilities 5 19 142 142 142 Dividends paid (20) - - - -
Net assets 268 301 321 402 583 Others (11) (0) - - -
Share capital 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 Financing activities 128 (0) 119 - -
Premium & reserves 264 297 317 396 576 Inc/(dec) in cash 101 13 0 (57) 41
Shareholders' funds 264 297 317 396 576 Cash at beginning of year 83 185 198 199 142
Non-controlling interests 4 4 4 5 7 Foreign exchange effect 1 0 - - -
Total equity 268 301 321 402 583 Cash at end of year 185 198 199 142 182
Source: Guosen Securities (HK)
Lifetech(8122.HK)
2013 年 10 月 23 日
国信证券(香港)
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Information Disclosures
Stock ratings, sector ratings and related definitions
Stock Ratings:
Buy: A return potential of 10 % or more relative to overall market within 6 – 12 months.
Neutral: A return potential ranging from -10% to 10% relative to overall market within 6 – 12 months.
Sell: A negative return of 10% or more relative to overall market within 6 –12 months.
Sector Ratings:
Overweight: The sector will outperform the overall market by 10% or higher within 6 –12 months.
Neutral: The sector performance will range from -10% to 10% relative to overall market within 6 –12 months.
Underweight: The sector will underperform the overall market by 10% or lower within 6 – 12 months.
Interest disclosure statement
The analyst is licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission. Neither the analyst nor his/her associates serves as an
officer of the listed companies covered in this report and has no financial interests in the companies.
Guosen Securities (HK) Brokerage Co., Ltd. and its associated companies (collectively “Guosen Securities (HK)”) has no disclosable
financial interests (including securities holding) or make a market in the securities in respect of the listed companies. Guosen Securities
(HK) has no investment banking relationship within the past 12 months, to the listed companies. Guosen Securities (HK) has no
individual employed by the listed companies.
Disclaimers
The prices of securities may fluctuate up or down. It may become valueless. It is as likely that losses will be incurred rather than profit
made as a result of buying and selling securities.
The content of this report does not represent a recommendation of Guosen Securities (HK) and does not constitute any buying/selling or
dealing agreement in relation to the securities mentioned. Guosen Securities (HK) may be seeking or will seek investment banking or
other business (such as placing agent, lead manager, sponsor, underwriter or proprietary trading in such securities) with the listed
companies. Individuals of Guosen Securities (HK) may have personal investment interests in the listed companies.
This report is based on information available to the public that we consider reliable, however, the authenticity, accuracy or completeness
of such information is not guaranteed by Guosen Securities (HK). This report does not take into account the particular investment
objectives, financial situation or needs of individual clients and does not constitute a personal investment recommendation to anyone.
Clients are wholly responsible for any investment decision based on this report. Clients are advised to consider whether any advice or
recommendation contained in this report is suitable for their particular circumstances. This report is not intended to be an offer to buy or
sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned.
This report is for distribution only to clients of Guosen Securities (HK). Without Guosen Securities (HK)‟s written authorization, any form
of quotation, reproduction or transmission to third parties is prohibited, or may be subject to legal action. Such information and opinions
contained therein are subject to change and may be amended without any notification. This report is not directed at, or intended for
distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any jurisdiction where such distribution,
publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation or which would subject Guosen Securities (HK) and its
group companies to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction.
Lifetech(8122.HK)
2013 年 10 月 23 日
国信证券(香港)
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31
信息披露 公司评级、行业评级及相关定义
公司评级
买入:我们预计未来 6-12 个月内,个股相对大盘涨幅在 10%以上;
中性:我们预计未来 6-12 个月内,个股相对大盘涨幅介于-10%与 10%之间;
减持:我们预计未来 6-12 个月内,个股相对大盘跌幅大于 10%。
行业评级
超配:我们预计未来 6-12 个月内,行业整体回报高于市场整体水平 10%以上;
中性:我们预计未来 6-12 个月内,行业整体回报介于市场整体水平-10%与 10%之间;
低配:我们预计未来 6-12 个月内,行业整体回报低于市场整体水平 10%以上。
利益披露声明
报告作者为香港证监会持牌人士,分析员本人或其有联系者并未担任本研究报告所评论的上市法团高级管理人员,也未持有其任何
财务权益。
本报告中,国信证券(香港)经纪有限公司及其所属关联机构(合称国信证券(香港))并无持有该公司须作出披露的财务权益(包
括持股),在过去 12 个月内与该公司并无投资银行关系,亦无进行该公司有关股份的庄家活动。本公司员工均非该上市公司的雇
员。
免责条款
证券价格有时可能非常波动。证券价格可升可跌,甚至变成毫无价值。买卖证券未必一定能够赚取利润,反而可能会招致损失。
本研究报告内容既不代表国信证券(香港)的推荐意见,也并不构成所涉及的个别股票的买卖或交易要约。国信证券(香港)或其
集团公司有可能会与本报告涉及的公司洽谈投资银行业务或其它业务(例如配售代理、牵头经办人、保荐人、包销商或从事自营投
资于该股票)。国信证券(香港)不排除其员工有个人投资于本报告内所提及的上市法团。
报告中的资料均来自公开信息,我们力求准确可靠,但对这些信息的正确性、公正性及完整性不做任何保证。本报告没有考虑到个
别客户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要,并不构成个人投资建议,客户据此投资,责任自负。客户在阅读本研究报告时应考虑报
告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其个人特定状况。本报告并不存在招揽或邀约购买或出售任何证券的企图。
本报告仅向特定客户传送,未经国信证券香港书面授权许可,任何人不得引用、转载以及向第三方传播,否则可能将承担法律责任。
研究报告所载的资料及意见,如有任何更改,本司将不作另行通知。在一些管辖区域内,针对或意图向该等区域内的市民、居民、
个人或实体发布、公布、供其使用或提供获取渠道的行为会违反该区域内所适用的法律或规例或令国信证券(香港)受制于任何注
册或领牌规定,则本研究报告不适用于该等管辖区域内的市民、居民或身处该范围内的任何人或实体。