Math vs. Aftermath: The Challenges of using Science as a Counterweight to Social Sentiment

Sandra K. Knight, PhD, PE, D.WRE Deputy Administrator for MitigationFederal Insurance and Mitigation Administration

• High-consequences, low-likelihood scenarios• “It won’t happen to me.”

The Problem

GA 2009

MA 2010

TN 2010

Our Challenge

“I don’t need flood insurance.”

“I am not at risk.”

• I don’t live in a flood zone

• This area hasn’t flooded in years

• Flood maps are arbitrary

• We never have storms like that

TN 2010CT 2010

FIMA: Our Model for Success

RiskMAPThrough collaboration with State, Local, and Tribal entities, Risk MAP will deliver quality data that increases public awareness and leads to action that reduces risk to life and property

Watershed Approach

Science Based

HAZUS

Identifies hazard

Considers what is at risk

Analyzes social and economic impacts

Produces maps, tables, and reports

Analyzes physical landscape

Building Science

Risk Insurance: FloodSmart

Case Study: TSARP Tropical Storm Allison Recovery Project

Case Study: Mandeville, Louisiana

High flood risk•Located along Lake Ponchartrain across from New Orleans

Better building practices •Stringent building regulations and mitigation efforts proved their worth during Hurricane Katrina

Reduced flood damage•Mitigated homes received little to no damage

Case Study: Grand Forks, North Dakota

Historical flooding• Recurring floods• 1997: 8,600 homes flooded• Flood losses totaled $3.7 billion

Mitigation through partnership • Acquisition of almost 700 vulnerable homes with FEMA mitigation grants

Real cost savings• 2006: Flood losses kept to $6-$7 million• Avoiding an estimated $19.1 million in potential damages

Every day, mitigation practices are put to use across the country – and these efforts pay off. In fiscal year 2010, over $3 billion in losses were prevented.

Mitigation Works