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FATA

DISTRICT GILGIT

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NPAKISTAN EMERGENCY SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS

Konodas Bridge, Gilgit

PAKISTAN EMERGENCY SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS

December 2012

“Disaster risk reduction has been a part of USAID’s work for decades. ……..we strive to do so in ways that better assess the threat of hazards, reduce losses, and ultimately protect and save

more people during the next disaster.” Kasey Channell,

Acting Director of the Disaster Response and Mitigation Division of USAID’s O�ce of U.S. Foreign Disaster Assistance (OFDA)

District Gilgit

“Disasters can be seen as often as predictable events, requiring forward planning which is integrated in to broader development programs.”

Helen Clark, UNDP Administrator, Bureau of Crisis Preven on and Recovery. Annual Report 2011

©Copyright 2012 ALHASAN SYSTEMS PRIVATE LIMITED 205-C 2nd Floor, Evacuee Trust Complex, Sector F-5/1, Islamabad, 44000 Pakistan 195-1st Floor, Deans Trade Center, Peshawar Cantt; Peshawar, 25000 Pakistan For information: Landline: +92.51.282.0449, +92.91.525.3347 Email: [email protected] Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/alhasan.com Twitter: @alhasansystems Website: www.alhasan.com ALHASAN SYSTEMS is registered with the Security & Exchange Commission of Pakistan under section 32 of the Companies Ordinance 1984 (XL VII of 1984). ALHASAN is issuing this Pakistan Emergency Situational Analysis – PESA® series free of cost in digital for general public benefit and informational purposes only. Should you have any feedback or require for further details and Metadata information please call us at Landline: +92.51.2820449, Fax: +92 51 835 9287 or email at [email protected] LEGAL NOTICES The information in this publication, including text, images, and links, are provided "AS IS" by ALHASAN SYSTEMS solely as a convenience to its clients and general public without any warranty of any kind, either expressed or implied, including, but not limited to, the implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or non-infringement. ALHASAN SYSTEMS assumes no responsibility for errors or omissions in this publication or other documents which are referenced by or linked to this publication. This publication could include technical or other inaccuracies, and not all information/ services referenced herein are available in all areas. Changes are periodically added to the publication, and ALHASAN may change the information or services described in this publication at any time. Should you choose to respond directly to ALHASAN SYSTEMS with comments, questions, suggestions, ideas or the like relating to this publication and ALHASAN SYSTEMS other services and products, you agree that such information shall be deemed as non-confidential and ALHASAN SYSTEMS shall have no obligation to respond and be free to reproduce, use, disclose and distribute the information to others without limitation, including but not limited to developing, manufacturing, and marketing products incorporating such information. For further explanation of these legal notices please contact [email protected].

ALHASAN SYSTEMS is publishing this series of Pakistan Emergency Situational Analysis – PESA® district profiles in digital format free of cost as its effort to enhance Crisis Response Knowledge Management and Disaster Risk Management [DRM] capacity in Pakistan.

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Credits

Table of Contents District at a Glance ........................................................................................................................... i Gilgit Reference Map .......................................................................................................................ii Acronyms ....................................................................................................................................... iii 1. Background Information

1.1 Introduction...................................................................................................................... 1 1.1.1 History ....................................................................................................................... 1 1.1.2 Geography ................................................................................................................. 2 1.1.3 Culture ....................................................................................................................... 2 1.1.4 Administrative Division: ............................................................................................ 2 1.1.5 Road Network Infrastructure .................................................................................... 3 1.1.6 Irrigation.................................................................................................................... 3 1.1.7 Solid Waste Management ......................................................................................... 4

1.2 Demography ..................................................................................................................... 5 1.2.1 Population Characteristics ........................................................................................ 5 1.2.2 Population Growth Pattern ....................................................................................... 6 1.2.3 Population Distribution by Age and Gender ............................................................. 6 1.2.4 Dependent Population .............................................................................................. 6 Gilgit Population Density Map ................................................................................................. 8

1.3 Livelihood ......................................................................................................................... 9 1.3.1 Main Sources of Livelihood and Income: .................................................................. 9 1.3.2 Agriculture .............................................................................................................. 10 1.3.3 Industry ................................................................................................................... 11 1.3.4 Forest ...................................................................................................................... 11 1.3.5 Fruits ....................................................................................................................... 12 1.3.6 Protected areas ....................................................................................................... 12

1.4 Food Security .................................................................................................................. 13 1.4.1 Availability ............................................................................................................... 13 1.4.2 Access ...................................................................................................................... 13 1.4.3 Utilization ................................................................................................................ 14

1.5 Health and Nutrition ...................................................................................................... 15 1.5.1 Health Facilities ....................................................................................................... 15 Gilgit Health Facility Map ...................................................................................................... 16

1.6 Education ........................................................................................................................ 17 1.6.1 Highlights ................................................................................................................ 17 1.6.2 District Literacy Rate: .............................................................................................. 17 1.6.3 Gender and Level Wise Details for GB .................................................................... 17

2. Disaster History and Its Impact 2.1 Disasters in Gilgit: ........................................................................................................... 19

2.1.1 Disaster History ....................................................................................................... 19 2.1.2 Exposure and Vulnerability ..................................................................................... 20 Gilgit Risk Analysis Map ......................................................................................................... 21

Gilgit Possible Safe Location Maps ........................................................................................ 22 2.2 Disaster Impact............................................................................................................... 23

2.2.1 Demography ............................................................................................................ 23 2.2.2 Livelihood ................................................................................................................ 23 2.2.3 Livestock Affected ................................................................................................... 23 2.2.4 Agriculture .............................................................................................................. 24 Gap Analysis of Agriculture and Livestock in Gilgit ............................................................... 26 2.2.5 Damages reported in Health Sector: ...................................................................... 27 2.2.6 Post Emergency Situation of Education Sector ...................................................... 27 Gap Analysis of Education Sector .......................................................................................... 27 Gilgit Irrigation Infrastructure Map ....................................................................................... 28

3. Hazard, Vulnerability and Capacity Analysis 3.1 Hazard Vulnerability and Capacity Analysis ................................................................... 29

3.1.1 Hazard ..................................................................................................................... 29 3.1.2 Natural hazard ........................................................................................................ 29 3.1.3 Man-made hazard ................................................................................................... 29 Hazard Matrix ........................................................................................................................ 29

3.2 Vulnerability ................................................................................................................... 31 3.2.1 Physical/material vulnerability: .............................................................................. 31 3.2.2 Social/organizational vulnerability: ........................................................................ 31 3.2.3 Attitudinal/motivational vulnerability: ................................................................... 31 Vulnerability matrix ............................................................................................................... 31

3.3 Capacity .......................................................................................................................... 33 3.3.1 Physical/material capacity: ..................................................................................... 33 3.3.2 Social /organizational capacity: .............................................................................. 33 3.3.3 Attitudinal/motivational capacity: .......................................................................... 33 Capacity matrix: ..................................................................................................................... 33 Gilgit Hazard Map .................................................................................................................. 35

4. Coordination and Support Services 4.1.1 List of Rural Health Centre (RHC) and Basic Health Units (BHU) ............................ 36 4.1.2 List of Dispensaries ................................................................................................. 36 4.1.3 List of MCH Centres ................................................................................................ 37 4.1.4 List of Leprosy Asylums and Leprosy Clinics ........................................................... 37 4.1.5 List of First Aid Post ................................................................................................. 37 4.1.6 List of Physical Assets and Infrastructure in district ............................................... 38 4.1.7 List of NGOs working in Gilgit ................................................................................. 38 4.1.8 List of Departmental Focal Points for Emergency Response .................................. 39 4.1.9 List of Control Rooms used in Emergency .............................................................. 39

List of Tables and Maps

List of Tables 1.1.1 Abstract of District-Gilgit Clans and their Languages in Gilgit-Baltistan 2

1.1.2 Road Network Comparison 3

1.1.3 Road Network Infrastructure of District Gilgit 3

1.1.4 Entry/Exit Points for Gilgit 3

1.1.5 Irrigated Area by Type of Irrigation in Gilgit During 1990 4

1.1.6 Solid Waste Management of Gilgit City 4

1.2.1 Estimated Population of District Gilgit for 2010 5

1.2.2 Population Details District Gilgit 7

1.3.1 Per Capita Incomes, Poverty, and Household Expenses-2008 9

1.3.2 District wise Land Utilization 10

1.3.3 Land used for the cultivation of different categories of crops in district Gilgit (hectors 11

1.3.4 Average Household Forest Tree Holdings in 2008- By Species 11

1.3.5 Fruit Varieties found in Gilgit 12

1.3.6 National Parks of Gilgit Baltistan 12

1.5.1 Health facilities in Gilgit District 15

1.6.1 Literacy Rate of District Gilgit 17

1.6.2 Enrolment and Educational Facilities by level and Gender 18

2.1.1 Inventory of Natural Disasters in Gilgit-Baltistan 19

2.1.2 Percentage of Districts in Each Province or Area Potentially Impacted by Very High or High Risk Disasters 20

2.1.3 Overview of the key hazards that threaten district Gilgit: 20

2.2.1 Area Inundated and Crop Area Damaged 24 2.2.2 Cultivated and uncultivated land destroyed 25 2.2.3 Distribution of Damaged PHC Facilities per District 27

List of Maps 1 Reference Map ii

2 Population Density Map 8

3 Health Facility Map 16

4 Risk Analysis Map 21

5 Possible Safe Location Map 22

6 Irrigation Infrastructure Map 28

7 Hazard Map 35

i

District at a Glance Area 3993.725sq.km Altitude1 1,500 m Population - 1998 145,272

Male 75,541 (52.2 %) Female 69,730 (47.8%)

Sex Ratio (males per 100 females) 115 Population Density 37 Km2

Urban Population 88,571 Rural Population 56,701

Average Household Size 7.2 Literacy Ratio (10 +) 72%1

Male 83% Female 61%

Total Fertility Rate( TFR)2 2.66% Population (60 and above) 3.8% Average Annual Growth rate (1981-98) 2.26%

Housing Units having Electricity 100% Housing Units having Piped Water 98%

Housing Units using Gas for Cooking 98% Administrative Units

Tehsil 1 Union Councils 12

Registered Voters (Gross) 3 153,828

1 AKRSP, JICA, Report, 2009 2 Gilgit Profile, 2011 3 Election Commission of Gilgit Baltistan

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AJK Azad Jammu Kashmir AKRSP Aga Khan Rural Support Programme ALC Adult Literacy Centres BHU Basic Health Unit DDMA District Disaster Management Authority DDRMP District Disaster Risk Management Plan ECP Election Commission of Pakistan EMIS Educational Management Information System FAO Food and Agricultural Organization FATA Federally Administered Tribal Areas FANA Federally Administered Northern Areas GB Gilgit Baltistan GBDMA Gilgit Baltistan Disaster Management Authority GBPWD Gilgit Baltistan Power and Water Department GER & NER Gross and Net Enrolment rates IDPs Internally displaced People IUCN International Union for Conservation of Nature JICA Japan International Cooperation Agency KKH Karakorum Highway KPK Khyber Pakhtunkhowa NADRA National Database and Registration Authority NASSD Northern Areas strategy for Sustainable Development NDMA National Disaster Management Authority NER Net Enrolment Rate NGO Non-Governmental Organization NHA National Highway Authority PCI Per Capita Income PCO Population Census Organization PSLM Pakistan Social and Living Standard Measurement Survey RHC Rural Health Centre SDC Swiss Development Cooperation SESGBC Socio-Economic Survey of Gilgit-Baltistan and Chitral TFR Total Fertility Rate UCs Union Councils UNDP United Nations Development Programme UNICEF United Nations International Children's Emergency Fund UNOCHA United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs WFP World Food Programme WHO World Health Organization WWF-P World Wide Fund for Nature-Pakistan

DISTRICT GILGIT1

1. Background Information 1.1 Introduction

1.1.1 History Gilgit Baltistan region, which in its amazing history, formerly named as Northern Areas, has a unique geographical composition on the globe. Occupying an extraordinarily varied and attractive landscape, Gilgit Baltistan is meeting point of the world’s four famous high altitude mountain ranges i.e. Pamirs, Hindukush, Karakorum and Himalayas. This region, in the opinion of geologists, is the meeting ground of “continents in collision” as the Indo-Pak sub-continental mass emerges to integrate into Eurasian continent of the north-west, leaving behind two main “faults” along the area. Previously known as Federally Administered Northern Areas (FANA), now “Gilgit Baltistan”,is a vital factor in the country’s fortunes. The mighty Indus, the longest and largest river and a major source of Pakistan’s agricultural strength meanders through Gilgit Baltistan. With recent administrative changes in this part of the country, its strategic significance has increased more than ever. Gilgit Baltistan lies in Northern Areas of Pakistan, with border belts of India, China and Afghanistan.4.

Gilgit was an important city on the historic Silk Route Gilgit was ruled for centuries by the local Trakhàn dynasty, which ended in 1810 with the death of Raja Abass, the last Trakhàn Raja. The area, which had been a flourishing tract of prosperity, was destroyed by warfare and by the great flood of 1841, in which river Indus was blocked by a landslip below the Hatu Pir and the valley was turned into a lake. After the death of Abas Sulaiman Shah, Raja of Yasin, conquered Gilgit. In 1877, the British government established the Gilgit Agency. It comprised of the Gilgit Wazarat, the State of Hunza and Nagar, the Punial Jagir, the Governorships of Yasin, Kuh-Ghizer and Ishkoman, and Chilas. It is also recorded that the Tajiks of Xinjiang sometimes took control of Gilgit and Kunjuti Hunza.

In 1935, Britain demanded from Jammu and Kashmir to lease them Gilgit town plus most of the Gilgit Agency and the hill-states of Hunza, Nagar, Yasin and Ishkoman for 60 years. Maharaja Hari Singh had no choice but to acquiesce. The leased region was then treated as part of British India, administered by a Political Agent, stationed at Gilgit, responsible to Delhi, first through the resident in Jammu and Kashmir and later a British Agent in Peshawar. Jammu and Kashmir State no longer kept troops in Gilgit and a mercenary force, the Gilgit Scouts, was recruited by British officers and paid for by Delhi. In April 1947, Delhi decided to formally retrocede the leased areas to Hari Singh’s Jammu and Kashmir State as of August 15, 1947. The transfer was to formally take place on August 1. Gilgit Scouts progressed with Pakistani troops from the north through High Himalayas and contributed in attacking of Skardu in the summer

4 Pakistan Journal of Social Sciences (PJSS) Vol. 30, No. 1 (September 2010), pp. 181-190)

BACKGROUND INFORMATION2

of 1948, pushing further towards Ladakh area. After Pakistani advances of early 1948, Indian troops gathered momentum in late 1948. Finally, India asked for UN intervention and a ceasefire was agreed on December 31, 1948. This conflict left Pakistan with roughly two-fifths of Kashmir along with Gilgit and Baltistan, leaving three-fifths of Kashmir along with Jammu and Leh to India5.

1.1.2 Geography Gilgit district is situated between 35° 55ʹ 19″ North and 74° 17ʹ 21″ East. It is bounded on the north by Hunza-Nagar, on the east by Skardu and Astore districts and on the south by Diamer. Gilgit shares boundary with five districts of Gilgit Baltistan.

1.1.3 Culture The population of the region is religiously and linguistically diverse - four Islamic schools of thought: Sunni, Shia Ithnasheri, Shia Imami Ismaili, Noor Baksh live together in this region. Main languages spoken in the area are: Shinna, Buroshaski, Chitrali, Balti, Wakhi and Urdu.

Table 1.1.1: Abstract of District-Gilgit Clans and their Languages in Gilgit-Baltistan District Races Languages Gilgit Sheen, Yashkun, Hunzukuz Kashmiri,

Pathan and others Shina, Brushisky, Wakhi, Balti, Urdu

Source: P & D Department, GB Being head quarter of the region, people from all parts of Gilgit-Baltistan (GB), speaking different languages, have settled in this district. The population encounters difficulties in understanding all these languages that hinders establishment of a smooth communication system. Therefore, Urdu has become the most popular language and is spoken and understood by most inhabitants. Due to highly diverse ethnic backgrounds, people mostly identify themselves with their distinct ethnic background.

Polo is a very popular sport in Gilgit Baltistan, and is being played here since a very long time. This game was introduced in Gilgit from Chitral. According to J. Budlafh (British Political Agent, 1878-1881), the Polo played in this area has no rules and regulations as such, and is played in a very dangerous manner. It is also named as Game of the Kings in the east and central Asia.

1.1.4 Administrative Division: The Deputy Commissioner, District Magistrate and the Revenue Collector are the Administrative heads of the district. The Deputy Commissioner is assisted by Assistant Commissioner (Implementation) and Assistant Commissioners for administrative subdivisions including Gilgit city and Danyore. Field staff includes Tehsildar, Naib Tehsildar, Girdawar and Patwaris. There are twelve Unioin Councils as part of local government structure. Currently, the district has been divided into two tehsils i.e Gilgit and Danyore.

5 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gilgit

DISTRICT GILGIT3

1.1.5 Road Network Infrastructure In district Gilgit, the density and the quality of roads vary significantly. In terms of road density and length per million, Gilgit lags behind the other districts of GB. A large part of the overall network falls under the category of district roads, which is growing at an annual rate of 6.4%. Currently, the size of the district road network is around 550 km.

Table 1.1.2: Road Network Comparison Road Length

(km) Road per Length per Million people (km)

Paved roads Road density\(km/sq km of area)

Pakistan 267,000 1,736 - 0.32 Gilgit Baltistan 4,523 3,467 - 0.06 Gilgit 550 1,786 20.2 0.03

Source: GB Planning Department

There are 5 main road networks, which connect Gilgit district to other parts of the region and also includes entry and exit points. Table 1.1.4, given below, describes the main routes and Entry Exit points of these routes from Gilgit district. These routes can be taken into account, in case of emergency or disaster situations.

Table 1.1.3: Road Network Infrastructure of District Gilgit District

Route via Distance from Gilgit

Gilgit to Hunza Nager Karakoram Highway N35 131 km Gilgit to Astore Karakoram Highway N35 98 km Gilgit to Skardu Gilgit Rd N35 186 km Gilgit to Diamir Karakoram Highway N35 156 Km

Table 1.1.4: Entry/Exit Points for Gilgit Entry/Exit Points 1 Jaglot 5 Barmas 9 Malubiting 2 Singul 6 Phuparash Gah 3 Baj Gaz An 7 Haramosh 4 Bunji 8 Hanzal

Source: National Geo-spatial Agency Dataset

1.1.6 Irrigation Gilgit-Baltistan has special importance in terms of water availability to Pakistan. Irrigation is an essential input of agriculture in the mountain valleys. The agricultural production is based essentially on water supply from streams and rivers which are fed by snow melt water from areas higher up the mountain ranges. Since the region lies outside the monsoon rainfall system, it receives a very low annual precipitation. A total of 65.8% irrigated area is commanded by open water channels, which provides water from snow and glacier melt, while uplift of water from river is also practiced for irrigation purposes. Ground water provides irrigation to around 20% of the irrigated area. Water is mainly drawn from various sources like precipitation, stream flows from glacier and snow melt, springs and ground water.

BACKGROUND INFORMATION4

4

The rainfall is so meagre that it hardly fulfils the requirement of crops. Thus stream flows provide the major portion of water use in Gilgit, which are diverted from streams contributing to the tributaries. Stream flows are very low in winters; begin to rise marginally in March as snow melt begins at lower altitudes. When melting begins at altitudes of glaciated region, these contribute to stream flows. Streams, originating from snow and glacial melt irrigate 65.8% of arable land while springs cover 19.2% of land as a source of irrigation. The streams are diverted into water channels, locally named as ‘Kuhls’, carrying water for kilometres in rugged terrain. Tube wells exists but in negligible numbers.

Table: 1.1.5: Irrigated Area by Type of Irrigation in Gilgit During 1990 Source of Irrigation Area Irrigated by types of irrigation (%)

Channels fed by Snow and Glacier melt 65.8

Channels fed by Spring 19.2

Tank 14.4

Tube wells 0.2

Others 0.4

Total Irrigated Area 100.0 Source: 1990 Census Agriculture, Gilgit Baltistan, Vol III

1.1.7 Solid Waste Management Gilgit is the main city of GB region and faces more severe solid waste management (SWM) problems than the other districts. A strategy is needed to tackle this growing problem with emphasis on institutional strengthening of the line departments and raising awareness among the masses. Detailed separate strategies for municipal waste, hospital waste and slaughterhouse is desirable6.

The solid waste is collected with the help of Municipal tractor trolleys and transferred to the dumping site near Karakorum International University (KIU). In the main town areas, where provision of dustbins are available (mostly in bazaar areas), people dispose of wastes in these dustbins. Households along the water channels dispose of their garbage directly into the nearby water channels or river.

According to a survey, conducted by IUCN, the average SW generation (estimated) in Gilgit town is around 0.4 kg of waste per person per day. According to IUCN survey conducted in 1998, the estimated SW generation in Gilgit town is around 70- 80 tons per day.

Table 1.1.6: Solid Waste Management of Gilgit City Urban Area Population 1998 MSW Generation Tons Population after 10

Years MSW Generation Tons

Gilgit city 56,701 23 72350 29 Source: NASSD, IUCN, 2005

6 District Gilgit Profile, 2011

5DISTRICT GILGIT

1.2 Demography

1.2.1 Population Characteristics In Pakistan, male population is more than the female population and is among those four countries where life expectancy for female, at birth, is less than that of males. Sex ratio in Gilgit is 115 males per 100 females, which is more than the ratio at the National level that is 106. Though there could be other possible reasons for such a difference in male to female ratio, one probable reason of this ratio could be underreporting of females during national surveys. Besides, a very high maternal mortality rate and poor health care at the district and province level are likely to be instrumental for a great fall in the number of women. District Gilgit, like majority of the districts in Gilgit Baltistan is rural by its characteristics, and ninety three percent of the population resides in rural areas.

Table 1.2.1: Estimated Population of District Gilgit for 2010 AGE GROUP (IN YEARS)

TOTAL RURAL URBAN BOTH SEXES MALE FEMALE BOTH SEXES MALE FEMALE BOTH SEXES MALE FEMALE

ALL AGES 197,882 102,273 95,609 120,647 62,355 58,292 77,235 39,918 37,317 00 -- 04 23,511 12,053 11,458 14,335 7,349 6,986 9,177 4,704 4,472 05 -- 09 23,903 12,344 11,559 14,573 7,526 7,047 9,330 4,818 4,511 10 -- 14 23,866 12,335 11,531 14,551 7,521 7,030 9,315 4,814 4,501 15 -- 19 22,670 11,737 10,933 13,822 7,156 6,666 8,848 4,581 4,267 20 -- 24 20,327 10,579 9,748 12,393 6,450 5,943 7,934 4,129 3,805 25 -- 29 16,460 8,637 7,823 10,036 5,266 4,770 6,425 3,371 3,053 30 -- 34 13,346 7,032 6,314 8,137 4,287 3,850 5,209 2,745 2,464 35 -- 39 11,263 5,960 5,303 6,867 3,634 3,233 4,396 2,326 2,070 40 -- 44 10,029 5,282 4,747 6,115 3,221 2,894 3,914 2,062 1,853 45 -- 49 8,281 4,337 3,944 5,049 2,644 2,404 3,232 1,693 1,539 50 -- 54 6,810 3,499 3,311 4,152 2,133 2,019 2,658 1,366 1,292 55 -- 59 5,192 2,599 2,593 3,166 1,585 1,581 2,027 1,014 1,012 60 -- 64 3,898 1,901 1,998 2,377 1,159 1,218 1,522 742 780 65 -- 69 3,233 1,568 1,665 1,971 956 1,015 1,262 612 650 70 -- 74 2,449 1,184 1,265 1,493 722 771 956 462 494

75 & ABOVE 2,642 1,225 1,417 1,611 747 864 1,031 478 553 Source: Estimated on the basis of table 4, Census Report 1998

DEMOGRAPHY6

1.2.2 Population Growth Pattern

Total population of the district, in 1998, was 145,272. Population of District Gilgit is categorized by a growth rate of 2.41% per annum, which means that the population will double itself in 29 years7 from 1998. 36.02% of the population is below 15 years of age and 4.21% is 65 years or above. The estimated population for 2010 is 197,882.

1.2.3 Population Distribution by Age and Gender

Out of the total population, 52% are males and 48% are females. Largest cohort of population is 5-9 years, which decreases with 5 years interval.

1.2.4 Dependent Population8 The economically dependent population is considered to be the population that is less than 15 years and more than 65 years of age. In addition to them, widowed, and/or divorced women are also considered dependent population. Dependent population in the case of Gilgit district is 40.23% of the total population whereas the working population is 59.77%, which shows that dependency ratio8 in the district is 67%.

7 Rule of 70 http://controlgrowth.org/double.htm 8 Dependency Ratio= (Population < 15 Years + Population > 65 Years)/ Population 15-65 Years

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6.1% 6.2% 6.2% 5.9%

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2.2% 1.8%

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FEMALE MALE

Dependent 40.23%

Labor Force 59.77%

Dependent Population percent

7DISTRICT GILGIT

Table 1.2.2: Population Details District Gilgit District Population Male Female Pop Density Average HH Size Estimated HHs

Gilgit 197,882 102,273 95,609 78 107 7.2 Source: Population census organization Pakistan

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9DISTRICT GILGIT

1.3 Livelihood Table 1.3.1 shows the overall economic situation of the region on the basis of available economic development indicators. The per capita income (PCI) of the population of Gilgit Baltistan, as a whole, was Rs. 29,426 in 2008 while PCI for district Gilgit is 41, 334, which is the highest amongst the districts of GB. The level of income is still lesser than the national average income9. Furthermore, there are considerable differences in the per capita incomes of the different districts of GB.

Table 1.3.1: Per Capita Incomes, Poverty, and Household Expenses-2008 Districts/Province Nominal PCI Poverty (Head count

index)10 HH Expenses(Rs)

Gilgit-Baltistan 29,426 25 161,613 Gilgit 41,334 18 196,112

Source: Hudur Valley Baseline Survey 2007 for Diamer district; SESGBC 2008

1.3.1 Main Sources of Livelihood and Income11: The Transport Sector in Gilgit has grown as the largest business in the region in terms of asset holdings. This amount constitutes 34% of the total private sector assets.

The public transport system holds 60% of the total assets in the transport sector as compared to 39% owned by the private transport system and 1% by automobile workshops and service stations. The second largest sector is General Trade. This sector includes businesses involved in the trade of required goods and services within and beyond the region.

The Agriculture related businesses constitute the third largest sector in the region. It constitutes 13% of the total public sector assets.

The Infrastructure Sector, which constitutes businesses related to construction of roads, buildings, and power generation, has grown as the fourth largest sector in terms of asset holdings. This sector covers 11% of the total assets in the private sector. Out of the total assets involved in this sector, the service providers’ (contractor’s associations) share is 98% while the

9 SESGBC 2008 10 The Head Count Index is the proportion of the population whose economic welfare is less than the poverty line. 11 AKRSP, JICA Report, 2010

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TransportGeneral tradeAgricultureInfrastructureTourismBankingOil and GasMiningForestsIndustryLivestockTechnologyPower GenerationCottage IndustryConstruction Materials

LIVELIHOOD10

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District Gilgit Average Land utilization per household

Net Sown

Current fallow

CultivableWasteUn-cultivable

related businesses such as manufacturing, construction materials and value addition share 2% of the total assets involved in this sub-sector. The poor asset-holdings by the manufacturing and construction material businesses are attributable to the free availability of the natural resource base of sand and stone in the region.

The Tourism Sector, being the fifth largest asset holding sector, holds 8% of the total assets involved in the private sector. Despite this sector’s vast geographic coverage, its poor asset-holdings are indicative of non-prioritized and poor allocation of financial resources, lack of financial support, political instability in the region, and physical threat to the tourist.

The Banking Sector is the sixth largest in terms of asset holding. More than six scheduled banks with dozens of branches are operating in Gilgit-Baltistan since the last two to three decades and have deposits worth approximately 100 billion rupees. The banking sector operates on investments from both the public and private financial sources. The major banks in the region are, predominantly, government owned, except for a few privately owned banks.

1.3.2 Agriculture Limited land is cultivable in district Gilgit. The cultivated area is predominantly made on alluvial fans. There is also a small fraction of cultivated area (mainly along river banks), which has been reclaimed from old river beds. The soil features vary in structure and texture across the district. In general, the texture of soil is high in silt and sand and low in clay. The soil depth is from 30-120 cms, weak to moderate granular structure at the surface and sub angular blocky at the bottom.

Table 1.3.2: District wise Land Utilization Districts Total Land (ha) Cultivated (ha) Cultivable waste (ha) Giligit Baltistan 71,188 58,604 12,584 Gilgit 18,324 15,633 2691

Source; Agriculture Census 2000

Table 1.3.3, given below, shows the total land used for cultivation of different types of crops in the district. District Gilgit had most of the area under potato production but much of this area now is in the newly established district of Hunza–Nagar.

11DISTRICT GILGIT

Table 1.3.3: Land used for the cultivation of different categories of crops in district Gilgit (hectors) District Wheat Maize Barley Buck wheat Potato Fruits Vegetables

GB 18176 17719 4875 947 8421 20901 6526 Gilgit 4122 4334 218 24 4256 2835 1306

Source: Agriculture Statistic 2007

1.3.3 Industry There is a huge potential for establishment of major industries, particularly, in mining, gemstones, horticulture, energy, and forestry etc. in the district, but due to socio-economic and political reasons, this potential has not been exploited as yet. However, there are flour mills, saw mills, furniture and wood works, hydro-power stations, hotels, etc. These industries are operating at a small scale and just to meet the consumption needs of the local population.

1.3.4 Forest Forests in Gilgit Baltistan provide critical ecosystem for wildlife habitat, biotic diversity, watershed protection, soil erosion control, etc. Only 9% of the total land in GB is covered with forest(s), out of which more than 50% is the agro/social forest12.

The southern slopes of district Gilgit receive heavy rainfall and consequently are covered with forests of deodar, pine, poplar and willow trees. The northerly ranges and north-facing slopes receive practically no rains and are, therefore, without trees. The lack of tree cover in northern parts contributes to many of the problems faced by the agricultural sector, which include: soil erosion, the silting of streams, flooding and a shortage of timber and firewood.

Table 1.3.4: Average Household Forest Tree Holdings in 2008- By Species Tree Species Overall GB Gilgit

Poplar 68 90 Willow 54 60 Russian Olive 13 21 Robinia 13 40 Ailanthus 9 19 Mulberry 7 6 Spruce 1 1 Others 13 27

Source: Socio-economic survey Hudur 2008, IUCN

12 NASSD, Forestry, 2005

LIVELIHOOD12

1.3.5 Fruits A Variety of fruits are produced in district GB. Most common fruit species is Apricot with more than 28 varieties. Apple is also commonly grown, with 17 different varieties.

Table 1.3.5: Fruit Varieties found in Gilgit Fruit Species Number of Varieties/Cultivars Almond 3 Apple 17 Apricot 28 Cherry 13 Grape 8 Mulberry 4 Olive 6 Peach 5 Pear 14 Plum 8 Walnut 15

Sources: Doolan, 1993; GB Department of Agriculture

1.3.6 Protected areas There are certain protected areas, which are declared as sanctuaries for wildlife conservation and creation of sustainable livelihood sources for the communities through activities like trophy hunting, ecotourism etc. Brief information of these protected areas is given below:

Table-1.3.6: National Parks of Gilgit Baltistan Name District Area (ha) Established Current Status

Khunjerab National Park Gilgit Baltistan 227,143 1975 Managed by GB Admin Central Karakoram National Park

Gilgit-Baltistan 973,845 1996 Notified but not managed

Source: Virk, A.T., K.M. Sheikh and A.H. Marwat. 2003, NASSD Background paper on Biodiversity, IUCN Pakistan

13DISTRICT GILGIT

1.4 Food Security Food security can be broadly divided into four components13:

Availability of food in terms of sufficient quantity available through domestic production or imports

Access to adequate resources given the socio-political and economic arrangements of the community

Utilization refers to the body’s ability to make use of the nutrients provided. This requires clean water sanitation and health care.

Stability includes an all-time access and utilization of food without any fear of losing it due to any shock (natural calamity, economic shock). This component points out to sustainability of food in an area.

1.4.1 Availability District Gilgit has extremely low availability of food. Gilgit is highly deficient in wheat production. Due to the topographic conditions, limited area is available for cultivation. This area specializes in fruit production, such as walnuts, apples, apricots and grapes. Food availability not only depends on the obtainability of wheat but also rests on availability of other cereals like rice, maize etc. Production of Maize and rice also is insufficient for local consumption. Moreover, animal based food availability (meat, milk, and milk products) is also important for total food availability and combining both, the crop based and animal based food self-sufficiency, Gilgit is producing extremely insufficient food14.

1.4.2 Access Production of surplus food is not the only indicator of food security. Similarly, per capita availability of food items alone is not a reliable indicator of food security. If the available food is socio-economically not accessible to the masses, availability alone cannot make a society food secure. Average monthly income of a household in this district is between Rs. 11,000 and Rs. 15,000/-which is considered as low15. Child dependency (ratio between children and household members in economically active age group) is one of the limiting factors in meeting the daily needs of households and is an important indicator to measure access to food. The increased dependency ratio enhances the spending of the household on child care and food, which results in a per capita reduction of socio-economic access to food. Child dependency ratio is also high in this district. The share of household expenditures on food is 59.9%, of the total income, in Gilgit Baltistan. So the low level of income, high food expenditures and high inflation (particularly food inflation) hinders access to food.

13 Food & Agriculture Organization (FAO) 14 Food Insecurity in Pakistan (2009), Sustainable Development Policy Institute (SDPI), Islamabad 15 ibid

FOOD SECURITY14

1.4.3 Utilization In addition to food availability and access, proper assimilation of food in the body is essential. Food utilization and stability depicts this absorption of food and its sustainability. Improved sanitation facilities, clean drinking water, health infrastructure and individual health status along with the female literacy play vital role in food absorption. According to Food Security Analysis (FSA) 2009, access to improved drinking water is extremely low in this district16. Sanitation facilities in valleys and urban areas of district Gilgit is far better than rural areas of the district, where 98 percent of urban HH have reported Flush facility at their homes.

Thus, Gilgit is facing problem of food availability, and access to clean drinking water. Besides lack of sufficient, safe and nutritious food that could meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life of the people make inhabitants of the district vulnerable17.

16 ibid 17Food Insecurity in Pakistan (2009), Sustainable Development Policy Institute (SDPI), Islamabad

15DISTRICT GILGIT

1.5 Health and Nutrition

1.5.1 Health Facilities There are 5 civil hospitals, 4 BHUs, 24 Dispensaries and 1 District Headquarters Hospital in Gilgit. The average distance of a vicinity from a health facility is 3.74 km, whereas the maximum distance is 20 km. The following table gives details of health facilities that are available in district Gilgit.

Table 1.5.1: Health facilities in Gilgit District Type Health Facilities Gilgit-Baltistan Gilgit

Combined Military Hospitals 02 1 District Headquarters Hospitals 05 1

Civil Hospitals 21 4 Rural Health Centres 02 2 Basic Health Units 17 4 Dispensaries 118 30 First Aid Posts 133 26 MNCH Centres 91 7 TB Leprosy Centres 20 2

Source: Health Secretariat, 2011

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17DISTRICT GILGIT

1.6 Education

1.6.1 Highlights

1.6.2 District Literacy Rate: According to AKRSP-JICA study, in 2009, literacy rate of Gilgit district was 72% (Male: 83%, Female: 61%). The 61% rate for female literacy seems highly encouraging in an area mainly governed by male domination and traditional mind-set towards female education. The literacy rate, for both men and women, in Gilgit is far better than the rest of the districts of Gilgit-Baltistan. This is mainly because Gilgit, being the capital of Gilgit-Baltistan, offers wide-ranging education facilities and opportunities to the students from all others districts who come to the educational institutions here, particularly for higher education.

Table 1.6.1: Literacy Rate of District Gilgit Gender Male (Percent) Female (Percent) Total National Average 69% 44% 56% Gilgit-Baltistan 76% 45% 61% Gilgit 83% 61% 72%

Source: AKRSP, JICA study, 2010

1.6.3 Gender and Level Wise Details for GB Total enrolment of students in GB is 193,675 (Males: 117,634, Females: 79,039) There are a total of 2001 schools in GB, of which 674 are for boys, 305 are for girls and 1,022 offer coeducation. Thus, on an average, there are 97 students per school.

18 EMIS, Department of Education 2003-2004

Literacy Rate 72% Male 83%

Female 61% GPI (Enrolment)

GPI Primary 0.73 GPI Middle 0.55

GPI Matric/Secondary 0.40 GPI Higher Secondary -

Population that has ever attended School18 64% Male 58%

Female 73% Student Teacher Ratio 26

Primary 67 Middle 31 Matric 7

Higher Secondary -

EDUCATION18

Primary The total number of primary level schools, in the district, is 1,496. The total enrolment, at the primary level, is 149,690, of whom 88,456 are boys and 64,234 are girls. The total number of teachers at the primary level is 2,233, out of which 1,507 are male and 726 are female teachers. Thus, on an average, each primary school has an enrolment of 100 students and 1.4 teachers.

Middle There are, reportedly, 318 middle schools in the district. The total enrolment, at the middle level, is 32,901, of which 21,288 are boys, whereas, the girls enrolment is 11,613. The total number of teachers at the middle level is 1,036, out of which 791 are male teachers and 245 are female teachers. Thus, on an average, each middle school has an enrolment of 103 students and 3 teachers.

Matric There are a total of 187 secondary schools in GB. The total enrolment, at the secondary level, is 11,082, of which 7,890 are boys and 3,192 are girls. The total number of teachers, at the secondary level, is 1,673, out of which 1,323 are males and 350 female teachers. Thus, on an average, each secondary school has an enrolment of 60 students and 9 teachers.

Table 1.6.2: Enrolment and Educational Facilities by level and Gender19 Level Enrolment School Facilities20 Teachers

Boys Girls Grand Total

Boys Girls Grand Total

Male Female Grand Total

Primary 88,456 64,234 149,690 427 201 1,496 1,507 726 2,233 Middle 21,288 11,613 32,901 136 70 318 791 245 1,036 Matric 7,890 3,192 11,082 111 34 187 1,323 350 1,673 Grand Total 117,634 79,039 193,675 674 305 2,001 3,621 1,321 4,942

19http://urban.unhabitat.org.pk/Portals/0/Portal_Contents/Gilgit%20Baltistan/Gilgit/City%20Profile%20-%20Gilgit.pdf 20 Coeducation schools are not mentioned separately but included in the grand total.

19DISTRICT GILGIT

2. Disaster History and Its Impact 2.1 Disasters in Gilgit: Gilgit Baltistan continues to suffer from a plethora of natural and human induced hazards - natural disasters including floods, earthquakes, landslides, and drought to human induced disasters such as fires, civil unrest and terrorism, refugees and internally displaced people, health epidemics, transport accidents, industrial accidents and war21.

2.1.1 Disaster History Gilgit is highly disaster prone area and disasters of different types have been occurring in here in the past. The most frequent and damaging disaster is flood, which affects all aspects of life of the dwellers of Gilgit. Following is a, chronological, brief history of disasters in district Gilgit and the affects of these disasters on human, livestock and infrastructure.

Table 2.1.1: Inventory of Natural Disasters in Gilgit-Baltistan Sr.No Natural Disaster Month/ Year Location: District/ Tehsil/

UC/ village Damages & losses (human, cattle, crops, land etc.)

Estimates of Financial Impact of Disaster (PKR)

1 Earthquake (5.6 magnitude)

Nov. 2002 Diamer, Astore districts: villages of Muthat, Tato, Raikot, Doyan, Turbling, Mushkin, Harcho

Deaths: 29, injured 45, Houses affected 4,676, Families affected 1449

109 million estimated from paid compensations

2 Floods and Land slides

Nov. 2005 Gilgit, Skardu, Daimer, Ghizer, Ganche, Astore

Deaths: 8; houses 3250, cattle 113

38.81 million

3 Floods & land slides

Aug. 2006 Astore, Gorikote/ Skardu, Mayurdo

Deaths: 9 1.8 million

4 Civil Conflict June 2004 to mid Oct 2005

Gilgit, Skardu Deaths 17; Injured 22; property damages

118 million

5 Civil Conflict Oct to Dec 2005 Gilgit, Skardu Deaths 56; injured 81 16.8 million 6 Floods June to Aug

2006 Gilgit, Skardu, Diamer, Ghizer, Ganche, Astore

Deaths 26; houses 563; crops affected 8376 hectares

50.19 million

7 Earthquake Oct 2005 Skardu, Diamer, Ghizer, Astore, Gilgit

Deaths 4; injured 20; buildings damaged 617

16.33 million

8 Floods 1999 Allover Gilgit-Baltistan Deaths 35; houses damaged 1227

20.27 million


11.24 million


36.66 million

(Source: iMMAP records)

The October 2005’s earthquake highlighted the risk exposure and vulnerability of Pakistan. The decision makers, politicians, media, development workers, international donors and the general populace have become aware of the major catastrophic risks facing Pakistan.

21 World Disasters Report 2003, Geneva

DISASTER HISTORY AND ITS IMPACT20

The exposure of Gilgit city to natural hazards and disasters could be ranked as moderate, as compared to other districts of Gilgit-Baltistan22. A range of natural hazards including earthquakes, droughts, floods, landslides, storms, glacial lake outbursts, river erosion, pest attacks and epidemics threaten Gilgit district. In addition, a variety of human induced hazards are threatening the society, economy and environment of the district. They include sectarian violence, civil conflicts, transport accidents and internal displacements of communities. Significant hazards, from the perspective of disaster risk reduction, include flooding, earthquakes, transport accidents, and droughts that can cause widespread damage and losses when they occur. There are a number of underlying risk factors that increase vulnerability and contribute to the severity of disasters.

2.1.2 Exposure and Vulnerability The table below illustrates that several areas in GB face a disproportionate share of either very high or high risk disasters or both. In particular, 33 percent23 of the Gilgit Baltistan province faces very high risk of disasters while none of the Province in Pakistan comparatively faces such a risk of disasters. In total, 50 percent of the region in the GB faces either a high or very high risk of disasters

Table 2.1.2: Percentage of Districts in Each Province or Area Potentially prone to High or High Risk Disasters

Province/Area Very High Risk (%) High Risk (%) Total (%) Gilgit Baltistan 33 17 50 Baluchistan 21 17 38 NWFP 17 13 30 AJK 13 13 26 Sindh 4 30 34 Punjab 0 3 3

Source: Disaster Risk Management, TWG Working Group Meeting, United Nations, May 17, 2007

Table 2.1.3: Overview of the key hazards that threaten district Gilgit: Type of Disasters Gilgit Frequency

High Medium Low Earthquake Landslide / Rock fall / Mudflow Glacial Movement / Avalanches Flash Floods/Riverine Floods Glacial Lake Outburst Floods Snow Storm Wind Storms Lightening Drought Epidemics

Source: Shaukat Ali Awan, The Climate and Flood Risk Potential of Northern Areas of Pakistan

22 Disaster Risk Management, TWG Working Group Meeting United Nations, May 17, 2007. 23 ibid.

21DISTRICT GILGIT

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23DISTRICT GILGIT

10 12 27 35

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Destroyed Houses Completely destroyed Houses

2.2 Disaster Impact

2.2.1 Demography Gilgit has a long history of disasters as has been discussed in the previous section. The Monsoon flood of 2010 in Gilgit is marked as the most disastrous flood in the history of Gilgit. Floods 2010 had a serious effect on socio-economic institutions of the district, particularly its demographic structure. Amongst them 21 are in Sharot-e-Shykyote, 16 in Municipal Area and 15 in Nomal, which are causing damages to the settlements and infrastructure24. 11 UCs’ population had been partially or fully affected by the flood. Number of houses totally damaged went up to 35 houses in 26 villages in Gilgit Municipal area, while damages in different UCs are mentioned in the below given graph. According to WFP Flood Assessment Report 2010, a total of 110, 306 people were affected by the floods.

2.2.2 Livelihood Floods 2010 resulted in high damage in GB region, affecting 11 out of 12 union councils. Major sources of livelihood including, agriculture, horticulture and livestock, services, personal business as trade and industry were also adversely affected. According to the FAO, Agricultural Assessment Report, the monsoon floods caused damages of unprecedented scale to agriculture crops, livestock, fisheries and forestry and have destroyed primary infrastructure such as water channels, household storages, houses, animal sheds, personal seed stocks, fertilizers and agricultural machinery. The WWF-P estimates that over 701 Kanals of standing crops were either lost or damaged in the district.

2.2.3 Livestock Affected Agriculture and livestock, as mentioned, are the major sources of livelihood in district Gilgit. A considerable damage was reported in livestock sector in Gilgit. A reported number of 50 livestock sheds were lost during floods 201025. There are chances that the actual toll of deaths and lost or sold livestock is higher than the reported status. The below graph reveals that maximum of 50 animals died in Shakyote and Jagir Bala, while several cattle sheds were also destroyed in the district.

24 HVRA Report, WWF Pakistan 25 Damages and losses report, WFP, 2010


2.2.4 Agriculture Gilgit Baltistan’s total area calculated in hectares is 136.4sq. km, out of which 15.67 sq. km was inundated due to floods 2010. A total of 11.43% of the sown area was damaged and the standing crops on that area destroyed due to gushing water of floods. The following graph gives details of crops damaged per kanal in different UCs.

Table 2.2.1: Area Inundated and Crop Area Damaged Attribute Number Percent Total Area (sq.km) 136.4 100% Area Affected (sq.km) 15.67 11%

Source: Losses and Damages Report Gilgit Baltistan, 2010

The graph given below shows total cultivated land of different crops in district GB. The absence of organized orchards makes it difficult to collect accurate estimates for the land under fruit production.

Bagrote Chakarkot Damote GilgitMuniciple

Jagirbaseen Nomal Rahimabad Sabil Shkyote

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0102030405060

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25DISTRICT GILGIT

According to WWF report, 0.3846 sq.km area of Jutal and Jagot valleys was affected badly, damaging 60% of the maize sown. Vegetables were also affected while torrential rains damaged fruits like apricots, apple and grapes. The following table gives details of area cultivated and percentage of damage caused. Table 2.2.2: Cultivated and uncultivated land destroyed Gilgit Cultivated land destroyed (kanals) Uncultivable land destroyed (Kanals)

Chakarkot 3 5 Shukyote-Bargo Bala 30 25 Gilgit Municiple 205 375 Jagir Baseen 550 320 Nomal 100 80 Rahimababd 175 71 Sabil 3 6 Sharote 200 100 Shukyote 10 15

Source: Losses and Damages Report Gilgit Baltistan, 2010

0500

100015002000250030003500400045005000

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Area land holding by Agricultral Crops

Gilgit


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27DISTRICT GILGIT

2.2.5 Damages reported in Health Sector: In floods 2010, the health care facilities of district Gilgit were not affected much. Gilgit Medical Centre was inundated for several days while government civil hospital, Kahsrote was also damaged. The distribution of damaged PHCFs, regardless of the level of damage (fully vs. partially) across the district is shown in the following table:

Table 2.2.3 : Distribution of Damaged PHC Facilities per District BHU MCHC/CHC Health Centre Civil Hospital - - 1 1

Source: Health Secretariat, GB 2010

2.2.6 Post Emergency Situation of Education Sector Department of Education Gilgit Baltistan reported in its Annual School Statistical Report, 2008-9 that there are 334 government schools of which 262 are primary, 121 are middle, 340 are matric/secondary and 12 are higher secondary schools28. During floods 2011, none of the schools were damaged. Most of the schools in district GB are built in safe areas. However, according to WWF-P Vulnerability Assessment Report, 2 primary school(s) in Cheera Bagrot, 1 in Oshikhandas, 3 in Jaglot, 2 in Minawar Sakwar and one primary school in Nomal are highly prone to the floods and other disasters.

Gap Analysis of Education Sector Attribute Pre Flood

situation Post Flood situation Activity

Schools

262 Primary Schools

121 Middle Schools

340 Secondary Schools

1 university

None of the schools were partially or fully damaged

In response to the emergency, Education Cluster has performed the following Activities:

21% schools in the district are located at high risk floods and other disasters29

4 Literacy camp centers were established for the IDPS at Cheetah Colony

Karakorum International University is situated in disaster prone area. 30

28 Annual Government School Statistical Report, 2008-9 29 HVRA Report for Gilgit, WWF, 2010 30 HVRA, WWF-P, 2010

HAZARD, VULNERABILITY AND CAPACITY ANALYSIS28

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29DISTRICT GILGIT

3. Hazard, Vulnerability and Capacity Analysis

3.1 Hazard Vulnerability and Capacity Analysis

3.1.1 Hazard Hazard simply means danger or risk. The synonyms used for hazards are jeopardy, venture, peril or chance. A hazard is the situation which triggers disaster. But it can be also defined as:

“Hazard is a potentially damaging physical event, phenomenon or human activity that may cause the loss of life or injury, property damage, social and economic disruption or environmental degradation” 31.

Thus, hazard is a situation that has the potential to harm the health and safety of a people or damage their property, plants and equipment etc. Hazards can be divided into two categories.

3.1.2 Natural hazard There are natural processes or phenomena within the earth system that may constitute a damaging event. Example typhoons, tsunamis, earthquake and volcanic eruption cyclones, earthquakes, floods, landslides, storms are natural hazards.

3.1.3 Man-made hazard Any industrial, nuclear, or transportation accident, explosion, power failure, resource shortage, or other condition, resulting from man-made causes, which threaten or cause damage to property, human suffering, hardship or loss of life are termed as Man-Made hazard.

Hazard Matrix Hazard Frequency Area

affected/union councils

Severity/Force/Source Time of Onset Year

Civil conflicts

Unpredictable (twice a year)

Kashrote, Domyal, Minor, Khomer, Gari-bagh, Baseen, Jagir Baseen, Barmas,

Sectarian clashes

Robbery Theft Burglary

None 1985,1995,1998, 2004,2005,2008, ,2010,2011,2012

Flood 2 to 3 times a year

Skarkoei, Konodas, Naltar,

Medium to High

(June to mid-August)

1994, 1996, 1999, 2001, 2000, 2006,

31 The “Urban Governance and Community Resilience Guides” (ADPC, 2010)


Hazard Frequency Area affected/union councils

Severity/Force/Source Time of Onset Year

Jutial, Juglot, Gorro, Jutal, Harmosh, Sai Jaglot, Cahrkot, Damot

2010, 201132

Glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF)

Yearly Sharote, Haramosh, Bagrot, Naltar, Nomal, Naltar,

52 potentially dangerous GLOFs

(June to mid-August)

Heavy Rainfall and Landslides

Once a year (1 to two hours)

Skarkoei, Kargah and Naltar, Sharote, Shykyote, Haramosh, Bagrot, Chakarkot, Naikoi, Jutial Nullah

23 potential landslides most potential is Naikoie

Medium (120-240mm)

June to September

1974, 1970,, 2000, 2001,2006, 2008, 2010/2011

Earthquake 4-5 times a year Whole district Low to Medium

unpredictable 2000, 2002 (5.6) 2004, 2005, 2008, 2010, 2011, 2012

River and stream bank Erosion

Once a year Sharote, Shykyote, Bargo, Thingee, hanzal, Konodass, Baseen Skarkoi, Sakwar and Naltar

2216 Kanals33 per year

Source is Ghizer River and overflow of streams

June to September

2010, 2011

Avalanche 5 to 7 times a year

Ten Avalanche points: Sharote,=1 Haramosh=1 Bagrot=2 Naltar=6 Nomal, Naltar,

Hydro-meteorological hazard

Ten points covering 1.8601sq.km34

Winters when heavy snowfall

Epidemics Once or twice a year

Naltar, Oshikhandas, Bagrot, Nomal, Jutal

Gastro Intestinal Diseases, skin diseases, eye infections, allergies, flu, influenza and pox

Occurs after rainfall, floods, and winters when temperature goes below normal

1994, 1996, 2001, 2000, 2006, 2010, 2011

Drought - Haramosh, Pari Bangle, Jaglot

3-4 years Round the year

2000-200335

32 Shaukat Ali Awan, The Climate and Flood Risk Potential of Northern Areas of Pakistan H VRA Report, WWF, 2011 33 HVRA Report for Gilgit, WWF, 2011 34 HVRA Report for Gilgit, WWF, 2011 35 Disaster Risk framework, 2010

31DISTRICT GILGIT

3.2 Vulnerability Vulnerability here means the state of being at risk of or being exposed to hazards. It also refers to the inability to withstand the effects of a hostile environment.

“The attributes and circumstances of a community or system that makes it sensitive, vulnerable or susceptible to the damaging effects of a hazard36”.

Vulnerability precedes disasters, contributes to their severity, hinders and obstructs the disaster response. Vulnerability is divided into three types, as follows.

3.2.1 Physical/material vulnerability: Weakness of the built environment and lack of access to physical and material resources i.e living in hazard prone areas or in unsafe buildings, lack of savings, insurance and assets.

3.2.2 Social/organizational vulnerability: Inequality in social systems that discriminate against and marginalize certain groups of people from accessing resources and services constitutes social/organizational vulnerability. People who have been marginalized in social, economic or political terms are vulnerable to disasters. Weakness in social and organizational areas may also cause disasters e.g. deep division can lead to conflict and war. Conflict of resources due to poverty can also lead to violence.

3.2.3 Attitudinal/motivational vulnerability: Existence of fatalistic myths and religious beliefs influence people’s vulnerability to disaster risks. If people believe that disasters are ‘acts of God’ and if they have low confidence in their ability to affect change or have ‘lost heart’ and feel defeated by events they cannot control, these people are often harder hit by disasters.

Vulnerability matrix PHYSICAL/MATERIAL SOCIAL/ORGANIZATIONAL ATTITUDENAL/MOTIVATIONAL

Some valleys of district Gilgit are located in lowland areas, near Gilgit River, which are prone to the floods. Nomal, Konodas Danyore, Harmosh and Jutial Nullah are the areas of the district, which are extremely prone to flash floods in the rainy season.

Though the district is prone to a number of natural hazards, inadequate DRR related projects are undertaken in the area.

People of the district are unaware about the risk level of villages to flooding and other hazards.

Climate change (CH) has escalated the rate and intensity of the floods that occur in the district, because CH has escalated the snow melting process.

Limited capacity of District government officials and the general public in terms of DRM activities.

Continuous flash floods have damaged dikes at the river banks, which are no more capable of protecting people’s property and livelihoods, of the district.

Most of the population of the district purchase cheap lands near river area for house construction, making themselves vulnerable to floods.

Soil quality is also endangered and Local organizations do not have Government interest level to mitigate

36 ibid


PHYSICAL/MATERIAL SOCIAL/ORGANIZATIONAL ATTITUDENAL/MOTIVATIONAL degraded by continuous flooding of agricultural fields, affecting income of people.

enough resources and proper guideline regarding DRM and DRR activities.

and resolve the flood issue, of the people of district, is not appreciable.

Livestock is also affected by the flash floods every year. People lose a number of animals and get no aid from the government.

CBDRM projects are needed to strengthen in disaster prone union council of the district.

Psychological problems are hiking up in children and women due to deaths of their beloved ones in frequent disasters.

Infrastructure like bridges and roads get damaged in the floods making it difficult for the villagers to communicate and assist each other in time of need.

Numbers of Local NGOs, working in the area, are limited.

No effective and efficient early warning system is available in the district to alert the people in time.

33DISTRICT GILGIT

3.3 Capacity Capacity is contrasted to vulnerability. Ability to perform or produce is capacity. Capacities are resources, means and strengths, which exist in households and communities and which enable them to cope with, withstand, prepare for, prevent, mitigate or quickly recover from a disaster. The combination of all the strengths, attributes and resources available within a community, society or organization that can be used to achieve agreed goals make up its capacity37.

3.3.1 Physical/material capacity: In most disasters, people suffer their greatest losses in the physical and material realm. Access to physical/material things or objects count as physical capacity. Few examples of physical and material capacity are cash, food, land, properties and tools.

3.3.2 Social /organizational capacity: However, even when everything physical is destroyed, people still have their skills, experiences and knowledge; they have family and social networks. They have leaders and systems for making decisions. They also have local, collective ‘wisdom’ reflected in their cultural practices that help them reduce or cope with disaster risks.

3.3.3 Attitudinal/motivational capacity: People also have positive attitudes and strong motivations such as the will to survive and willingness to help each other.

Capacity matrix: PHYSICAL/MATERIAL SOCIAL/ORGANIZATIONAL ATTITUDENAL/MOTIVATIONAL

Plantation of trees along the banks of rivers, in order to control soil erosion and prevent or lessen water overflow in the rainy seasons, has increased.

Some valleys pay attention to weather forecasts on heavy rains, and have identified places to evacuate to in case the village is going to be affected by flooding.

Some local communities are using their indigenous knowledge, which is passed down from village elders to the next generation, to overcome the adverse impacts of hazards.

Some settlements located along rivers built retaining walls, providing protection to the properties.

“Sense of community” is a huge capacity in difficult times and communities often work together in times of flooding, first assisting direct kin and neighbours, and then, where possible.

Mass awareness about disasters and physical drills makes people ready to cope with natural disasters.

Valley dwellers identify ‘safe places’ to evacuate during times of flooding. , Mosque, Imam-Bargah and Jamat Khana compounds, generally built on safe places are used as relocation sites for families.

Local Support Organizations, Boys scouts, girls guides, men and women volunteer corps are well organized and well trained social organizations. Communities are grouped together for larger tasks, such as relief, recovery, rebuilding homes, relocating livestock, coping capacity.

Communities often rely on indigenous warning signals to organize responses to the onset of flooding. Communities note the reliable warning signals including frequency and duration of rain, color of the sky and birds building their nest higher in the trees.

Loudspeakers in mosque and mobiles in some area of the district can also be

The biggest capacity of district Gilgit is the number of Government

Traditionally, building and repairing homes in indigenous communities is a

37 ibid


PHYSICAL/MATERIAL SOCIAL/ORGANIZATIONAL ATTITUDENAL/MOTIVATIONAL used to alert people of the coming flood.

departments, iNGOs and non-governmental organizations working in the district.

communal activity.

The increased protection of forests could lead to a decrease in the severity of floods.

Local district departments in coordination with other stakeholders are preparing DDRM Plan to know the strengths and weakness of the area and then to take action against these shortcomings.

Motivation in communities to participate in disaster risk reduction activities to strengthen the capacity of the community in addressing current and future levels of risk is an effective mechanism to cope with disaster.

35DISTRICT GILGIT

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COORDINATION AND SUPPORT SERVICES36

4. Coordination and Support Services

4.1.1 List of Rural Health Centre (RHC) and Basic Health Units (BHU) SR. # NAME OF BASIC HEALTH UNIT 1 Basic Health Unit Jalalabad 2 Basic Health Unit Nomal

Source: Health Secretariat, Gilgit Baltistan

4.1.2 List of Dispensaries Sr. # Name of Dispensary

1. Civil Dispensary Rahimabad

2. Civil Dispensary Danyore 3. Civil Dispensary Nalter Balla 4. Civil Dispensary Faizabad 5. Civil Dispensary Bargo 6. Civil Dispensary Farfoo 7. Civil Dispensary Chakerkote 8. Civil Dispensary Damote 9. Civil Dispensary Hanuchal 10. Civil Dispensary Sharote 11. Civil Dispensary Shikyote 12. Civil Dispensary Hanzal 13. Civil Dispensary Khur 14. Civil Dispensary Basin Kote 15. Civil Dispensary Napura Basin 16. Civil Dispensary Naikoi 17. Civil Dispinsary Between Konodass & Sakarkoi 18. Civil Dispensary Sakarkoi 19. Civil Dispensary Khomer 20. Civil Dispensary Zulfiqarabad 21. Civil Dispinsary Sammi Mohalla Jutial 22. Civil Dispensary Chirah 23. Civil Dispensary Batkore 24. Civil Dispensary Barchi 25. Civil Dispensary Gasho

26. Civil Dispensary Dasso 27. Civil Dispensary Darote (Jaglote) 28. Civil Dispensary Jail 29. Civil Dispensary Muhammadabad 30. Civil Dispensary Pari


37DISTRICT GILGIT

4.1.3 List of MCH Centres Sr. # Instrument 1 M.C.H Center Juglote Sai

2 M.C.H Center Chakerkote 3 M.C.H Center Farfoo

4 M.C.H Center Sakwar

5 M.C.H Center Sultanabad

6 M.C.H Center Bargo 7 M.C.H Center Damote


4.1.4 List of Leprosy Asylums and Leprosy Clinics Sr. # Leprosy Asylums and Leprosy Clinics Bed Strength 1 T.B/Lep Hospital Amphary Gilgit 10 2 T.B/Lep Center Juglote (Sai) 10


4.1.5 List of First Aid Post Sr. # First Aid Post

1. Goro Juglot 2. Sakarkoi 3. Bilchar 4. Juglote 5. Demote 6. D. college 7. Konodas 8. Chaprote 9. Sultanabad 10. Jutal 11. Minawar 12. Sanikar 13. Bulchi 14. Chamoghar 15. PRTC Gilgit 16. Sultanabad 17. Miachar 18. M. abad 19. Nalter Pian 20. Balas 21. Jagir Basin 22. Kargah 23. Sakwar 24. Sharote 25. Pari 26. Hinzal


COORDINATION AND SUPPORT SERVICES38

4.1.6 List of Physical Assets and Infrastructure in district Machinery and equipment available with government and stakeholders

S# Name of Machinery B&R Division Gilgit-Baltistan On Road Off Road

1 Dozer D-7 G 2 2 Dozer D-45 1 3 Dozer T-220 4 Wheel Dozer 1 5 Crane 18 Ton 1 6 Road Rolier 3 7 Tractor MF-385 2 8 Compressor 6 9 Excivator 1 10 Wheel Loader 1 11 Truck 12 Punjar Machine 13 Airman Kamtsu 14 Drill Machine Total 13 5

Source: iMMAP data

4.1.7 List of NGOs working in Gilgit S# Name/ Title Address 1. Aga Khan Cultural Services Pakistan AKCSP near National bank, Zulfiqarabad,Jutial, Gilgit

Ph: 05811-458078 2. Aga Khan Education Services Pakistan

(AKESP) University Road, Konodass, Gilgit Ph:960701

3. Aga Khan Health Services Pakistan(AKHSP) GMC, near Chinar Bagh Gilgit-Baltistan 4. Aga Khan Rural Support Programme

(AKRSP) Babar Road, near Hunza Inn Hotel, Gilgit Ph: 05811-452480, 452910

5. FOCUS Humanitarians Assistance Pakistan FOCUS Regional Office near Panorama Hotel Jutial Gilgit Ph: 05811-455804

6. Hashoo Foundation Babar Road, near HUnza Inn, Gilgit Ph: 05811-458687-8

7. Mountain Infrastructure and Engineering Services (MIES)

Al-Sabah Chowk, Sonikot Gilgit Ph: 05811-455312

8. Pakistan Red Crescent Society (PRCS) Zulfiqarabad, Jutail Gilgit 9. Professional Development Centre Gilgit-

Baltistan-Baltistan University Road Konodass Gilgit Ph: 05811-454132

10. Publishing Extension Network (PEN) Cheeta Colony, Jutial Gilgit

11. Rupani Foundation JJ Market, Zulfiqabad Gilgit 12. Vision International River View Road Gilgit

Ph: 05811-455517 13. Aga Khan Planning and Building Services

(AKPBSP) Helicopter Chowk, Jutial Gilgit Ph: 05811-454266

14. World Wide Fund for Nature Conservation (WWF)

GCIC Complex, Cheeta Colony, Jutial Gilgit Ph: 05811-455688, 455658

39DISTRICT GILGIT

4.1.8 List of Departmental Focal Points for Emergency Response S.No. Focal Department Contact

1 District Commissioner, Gilgit 05811-920100 2 Superintendent of Police, Gilgit 05811-930234 3 Deputy Director, Department of Health 05811-920111 5 Executive Engineer, Water and Sanitation 05811-920940 6 Deputy Director ,LG&RD, Gilgit Baltistan 05811-920802 7 Deputy Director, Department of Agriculture, Gilgit

Baltistan 05811-920841

8 Deputy Director , Department of Education, Gilgit Baltistan

05811-960291

9 Deputy Director , Department of Fisheries, Gilgit Baltistan 05811-920277 10 Conservator, Department of Forest, Gilgit Baltistan 05811-920272 11 Assistant Commissioner, Gilgit 05811-920104 12 Deputy Director, Civil Supply, Gilgit Baltistan 05811-920832

13 National Highway Authority 05811- 451381 Source: iMMAP data

4.1.9 List of Control Rooms used in Emergency Sr.# Focal Points for Emergency Contact No 1 Assistant Commissioner office, Gilgit 05811-920724

2 FOCUS-Humanitarian Assistance, Gilgit 05811-455804 3 Gilgit Baltistan Disaster Management Authority 05811-920874

Source: iMMAP data

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