PART I

TINBERGEN RESEARCH INSTITUTE

1

1. TI-RESEARCH IN GENERAL The Tinbergen Institute's research is organised along four themes: I Institutions and Decision Analysis; II Financial and International Markets; III Labour Region and Environment; IV Econometrics. For each theme there is a co-ordinator and a deputy co-ordinator. Together the co-ordinators form the research council. Members of the research groups are research fellows, who are selected by the Board of the Institute, based on their publication records. The economic departments where the research fellows are appointed provide the nomination with additional research time. Most research groups organise annual or biannual meetings, where ongoing research is presented. In Table 1.1 an overview is given of the number of research fellows and PhD students for each research group, divided by university. Table 1.1. Research fellows (RF's) per ultimo 2001, per university per research group; PhD Students and thesis defences in 2001 per research group

Research group RF's total (excl. Jr.RF’s)

RF's EUR

RF's UvA

RF's VU

Junior Fellows

PhD Students

PhD thesis defences

1 Institutions and Decision Processes

20 6 11 3 2 21 1

2 Financial and In-ternational Markets

24 9 10 5 2 46 7

3 Labor, Region and Environment

25 8 4 13 4 42 5

4 Econometrics

22 11 8 3 1 21 6

5 Miscellaneous

5

Total 91 34 33 24 9 130 24 Within these research themes the Tinbergen Institute performs and stimulates fundamental and applied economic research, by providing facilities for research fellows. Budgets are available for inviting scholars from abroad and organising seminars and conferences. Co-ordinators of the themes decide on the spending of the budget. In addition, there is a central budget for larger conferences, for which fellows of the institute can apply. The General Director decides on these applications. All seminars, workshops and conferences have been recorded in the next paragraphs of the annual report.

2

The TI discussion paper series is a medium for pre-publications for the institute’s research fellows and PhD students. The discussion papers published in 2001 are all listed in this annual report. We also mention publications in international refereed journals based on discussion papers of previous years. For all other research output of the TI research fellows and PhD students we refer to the annual reports of the respective departments. In Table 1.2 you can find the number of discussion papers per research group in 2001. Table 1.2. Discussion papers (DP) per research group issued in 2001

Research group DP 1 Institutions and Decision Processes 31 2 Financial and International Markets 22 3 Labor, Region and Environment 40 4 Econometrics 28 Total 121

In the sections 2.1 – 2.4 the research groups’ results and activities of 2001 have been recorded. All research fellows and PhD students allied to the research groups are mentioned. Some research fellows participate in two research groups. In these cases, research fellows are mentioned twice: the first time in the paragraph of the research group where the main part of their research is taking place; the second time in parentheses. In chapter 3 TI-activities not related to research groups are reported. Also in this chapter research projects funded by TI or TI projects with external funding are mentioned.

3

2.1 INSTITUTIONS AND DECISION PROCESSES Co-ordinator: M.C.W. Janssen (EUR); Deputy-Co-ordinator: F.A.A.M. van Winden (UvA). Research Fellows: EUR: G. Antonides, H.P. van Dalen, S. Goyal, J.P.M. Groenewegen, M.C.W. Janssen,

O.H. Swank (J.G.M. van Marrewijk, N.L. van der Sar, A.R. Thurik, C.G. de Vries)

UvA: C.H. Hommes, S. Martin, M.S. Morgan, T.J.S. Offerman, G.A. Reuten, A.J.H.C. Schram, R. Sloof, J.H. Sonnemans, J. Tuinstra, P.P. Wakker, F.A.A.M. van Winden (J. Hartog, F. van der Ploeg, B.M.S. van Praag)

VU: T.L.C.M. Groot, H.E.D. Houba, G. van der Laan

Junior Research Fellows: EUR: A.J. Dur UvA: C.G.H. Diks PhD Students: EUR: K.J. Beniers (as from 1/1/2001), S.S. Ficco (as from 1/9/2001), A. Galeotti (as from

01/09/00), D.D. Goedhart (as from 01/09/97), V.A. Karamychev (as from 01/05/98), J. Loef (as from 01/09/97), R. van der Noll (as from 01/09/00), K. Staal (as from 01/07/99).

UvA: H.-K Chao (as from 01/09/97), G.A.W. Griffioen (as from 01/10/98), J. Grosser (until 1/10/01), S. van der Hoog (as from 01/10/00), S. Manzan (as from 01/01/99), P. Rodenburg (as from 01/01/99), M. Rostek (as from 15/10/00), V. Sadiraj (until 01/09/01), I. Seinen (until 01/09/01), R. van der Weide (as from 01/04/00).

VU: J.A. Kamphorst (as from 01/09/00), R. van der Maten (as from 01/03/01), V. Pruzhansky (as from 01/09/01)

Discussion papers: 01-003/1 Ingrid Seinen, Arthur Schram, CREED, UvA, Social Status and Group Norms 01-004/1 Valeri Vasil'ev, Sobolev Institute of Mathematics, Russia, Gerard van der Laan, VU,

The Harsanyi Set for Cooperative TU-Games 01-011/1 Gerard van der Laan,VU, Pieter Ruys, and Dolf Talman, Tilburg University, Optimal

Provision of Infrastructure using Public-Private Partnership Contracts 01-013/1 Cars H. Hommes, UvA, J. Barkley Rosser, Jr., James Madison University, Consistent

Expectations Equilibria and Complex Dynamics in Renewable Resource Markets 01-014/1 Cars H. Hommes, UvA, Financial Markets as Nonlinear Adaptive Evolutionary

Systems 01-015/1 Andrea Gaunersdorfer, University of Vienna, Cars Hommes, Florian O.O. Wagener,

UvA, Bifurcation Routes to Volatility Clustering 01-016/1 Peter Boswijk, Gerwin Griffioen, and Cars Hommes, UvA, Success and Failure of

Technical Trading Strategies in the Cocoa Futures Market 01-022/1 Arjo Klamer, EUR, and Hendrik P. van Dalen, EUR, and Scientific Council for

Government Policy, Attention and the Art of Scientific Publishing 01-034/1 Eduardo L. Giménez, Universidade de Vigo, Complete and Incomplete Markets with

Short-Sale Constraints 01-040/1 Ioulia V. Ossokina, and Otto H. Swank, EUR, How Polarization and Political

Instability affect Learning through Experimentation 01-041/1 Harold Houba, VU, and Alexander F. Tieman, VU and De Nederlandsche Bank,

Idiosyncratic and Aggregate Time-Varying Mutation Rates in Coordination Games

4

01-044/1 René van den Brink, Tilburg University, Gerard van der Laan, VU, A Class of Consistent Share Functions for Games in Coalition Structure

01-052/1 Robert A.J. Dur and Otto H. Swank, EUR, Producing and Manipulating Information: Private Information Providers versus Public Information Providers

01-053/1 Hsiang-Ke Chao, UvA, Milton Friedman and the Emergence of the Permanent Income Hypothesis

01-054/1 Eduardo L. Giménez and Manuel González-Gómez, Universidade de Vigo, Efficient Allocation of Land between Productive Use and Recreational Use – An Application to Galician Case

01-058/1 Ronald Bosman, Frans van Winden, UvA, Anticipated and Experienced Emotions in an Investment Experiment

01-061/1 Peter Rodenburg, UvA, Tracing the Changing Measures of Unemployment in Dutch Unemployment Statistics 1900-1940

01-062/1 David J. Dekker, EUR, Effects of Positions in Knowledge Networks on Trust 01-063/1 Ioulia V. Ossokina, Otto Swank, EUR, The Optimal Degree of Polarization 01-065/1 Maarten C.W. Janssen, Ewa Mendys, EUR, The Price of a Price: On the Crowding

out of Social Norms 01-068/1 Matthijs van Veelen, VU, Evolution in Games with a Continuous Action Space 01-072/1 Eelco Modderman, Cees Gorter, Jasper Dalhuisen, Peter Nijkamp, VU, Labour

Manoeuvrability and Economic Performance in Township-Village Enterprises: The Case of China

01-075/1 J. Brinkhuis, EUR, V. Tikhomirov, Moscow State University, On the Duality Theory of Convex Objects

01-083/1 Moez Bennouri, Université de Science Économique et Gestion, Tunis, Sonia Falconieri, CREED, UvA, Price versus Quantity Discrimination in Optimal IPOs

01-084/1 Sonia Falconieri, CREED, UvA, The Impact of Lobbying on the Allocation of Political Authority

01-085/1 Cees Diks, Sebastiano Manzan, CeNDEF, UvA, Tests for Serial Independence and Linearity based on Correlation Integrals

01-096/1 P. Jean-Jacques Herings, University Maastricht, Gerard van der Laan, VU, Dolf Talman, Department of Econometrics & Operations Research, and CentER, Tilburg University, Measuring the Power of Nodes in Digraphs

01-099/1 Lola Esteban, José M. Hernández, Universidad de Zaragoza, José Luis Moraga-González, EUR, Customer Directed Advertising and Product Quality

01-106/1 Maarten C.W. Janssen, Vladimir A. Karamychev, EUR, Dynamic Insurance and Adverse Selection

01-115/1 Maarten C.W. Janssen and José Luis Moraga, EUR, Two Firms is enough for Competition, but Three or More is better

01-116/1 P. Jean-Jacques Herings, University Maastricht, Gerard van der Laan, VU, Dolf Talman, Tilburg University, Quantity Constrained Equilibria

Thesis Defences: A.W. Saly (05/04/2001), Corporate Entrepreneurship; Antecedents and Consequences of Entrepreneurship in Large Established Firms (Prof. J. Bunt)

5

Seminars

Tinbergen Institute Amsterdam February 15 Anke Kessler, University of Bonn, Germany, The Theory of Human Capital Revisited:

On the Interaction of General and Specific Investments March 15 Jean-Robert Tyran, University of St. Gallen, Switzerland, On Fiscal Illusion 20 Bruce Caldwell, University of North Carolina, USA, Hayek’s Challenge 29 Luigi Guiso, Ente Luigi Einaudi, Rome, Italy, The Role of Social Capital in Financial

Development 29 Workshop Economic Dynamics

-Ken Judd, Stanford, USA, The Parameteric Path Method: an Alternative to Fair-Taylor and L-B-J for solving Perfect Foresight Models -Volker Wieland, Johann-Wolfgang-Goethe University Frankfurt, Germany, Learning, Stabilization and Credibility: Optimal Monetary Policy in a Changing Economy -Cars Hommes, UvA, Evolutionary Dynamics in Financial Markets with many Trader Types -Wouter den Haan, USC, San Diego, USA, Job Destruction, Growth, and the European Unemployment Puzzle

April 26 Jan Potters, CentER, Tilburg University, Voluntary Price Communication. A Market

Experiment May 17 Fernando Vega-Redondo, Universidad de Alicante, Spain, Learning, Network

Formation, and Coordination June 11 A. Krishnamoorthy, Cochin University of Science and Technology, India, Reliability of

a K-out-of-n system with Repair under the N-policy and Spares 14 R. Sugden, University of East Anglia, GB, Is there Loss Aversion in Buying? An

Adversarial Collaboration (with Ian Bateman, Daniel Kahneman, Alistair Munro, Chris Starmer)

August 6 Masayuki Matsui, University of Electru-Communications, Japan, Stochastic

Management and Design of Manufacturing Systems: Job-Shop Type September 11-21 CREED Summer School

- Graham Loomes, University of East Anglia, GB, Individual Decision Experiments - Dan Friedman, University of California, Santa Cruz, USA, Market Experiments - Simon Gächter, University of St. Gallen, Switzerland - Werner Gűth, Humboldt University, Germany, Bargaining

6

October 18 Double Seminar jointly with Free University

-Rodica Branzei, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Iasi, Romania, Cooperation and Information -Josef Falkinger, University of Zurich, Switzerland, Employability and the Power to Organize Jobs

November 15 Eyal Winter, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Israel, Scapegoats and Optimal

Allocation and Responsibility Tinbergen Institute Rotterdam February 16 Guido Fioretti, IASG Firenze, ICER Torino, Structure and Behaviour of Textile

Industrial District Chenggang Xu, LSE, Financial Institutions, Financial Contagion and Financial Crises Bauke Visser, EUR, Organizational Complexity and Robustness

March 16 Roman Inderst, University of Mannheim, Negotiated Contracts in Bilaterally

Oligopolistic Industries (with Applications to Merger, Takeovers, and Technology Choice Casper G. de Vries, EUR, Comparative Analysis of Litigation Systems: An Auction-Theoretic Approach Pedro Pereira, University Complutense Madrid, Price Dynamics with Consumer Search and Cost Volatility with an Application to Electronic Commerce

May 11 Emmanuel Petrakis, University of Crete, Wages and Productivity Growth in a Dynamic

Monopoly Rohit Rahi, LSE, Efficiency Properties of Rational Expectations Equilibria with Asymmetric Information Sanjeev Goyal, EUR, Strategic Models of Network Formation

June 8 Robin Cubitt, University of East Anglia, On Money Pumps

Marco Ottaviani, UCL, The Strategy of Professional Forecasting October 19 Bert Schoonbeek, University of Groningen, Rent Seeking with Efforts and Bids

Vladimir Karamychev, EUR, Dynamic Insurance and Adverse Selection November 16 Trond Olsen, University of Bergen, Career Concerns, Multiple Tasks, and Short-Term

Contracts Hans Gersbach, University of Heidelberg, The Hierarchy of Incentive Contracts and Elections in Politics

Visitors: • Guido Fioretti, IASG Firenze, ICER Torino, Rotterdam, February 13 - 20

7

• Roland Strausz, Freie Universität Berlin, Rotterdam, February 23 – 28 • Jack L. Knetsch, Simon Fraser University, Rotterdam, April 1-30

8

9

2.2 FINANCIAL AND INTERNATIONAL MARKETS Co-ordinator: C.G. de Vries (EUR); Deputy-Co-ordinator: E.C. Perotti (UvA).

Research Fellows: EUR: M.A. Carree, S. Cnossen, J.F. Francois, J.G.M. van Marrewijk, G.T. Post,

J. Spronk, J.-M. Viaene, A.C.F. Vorst, C.G. de Vries, (H.K. van Dijk, A.R. Thurik) UvA: R. Beetsma, A.W.A. Boot, C.A.M.F. Claessens, M.J. Ellman, C. van Ewijk,

M.M.G. Fase, J. Hinloopen, F. de Jong, E.C. Perotti, S.J.G. van Wijnbergen VU: C.L. Gilbert, J.W. Gunning, M.A. Keyzer, A. Lucas, M.P. Pradhan (C. Withagen)

Junior Research Fellows: EUR: P.A. de Hek, A. Pelsser

PhD Students: EUR: M. Abreu (as from 01/07/01), K.G. Berden (as from 01/09/98), A.B. Berkelaar

(until 01/12/00), B. Bierut (as from 01/09/00), B. Brys (until 01/05/01), S. Caserta (as from 01/09/97), P. Cumperayot (as from 01/02/98), F. Eschenbach (as from 01/09/99), P.W. van Foreest (as from 01/01/98), A.V. Hardiyanto (as from 01/09/00), P. Houweling (as from 01/09/98), A.J. Menkveld (as from 01/09/00), C.M. van Mourik (until 01/03/01), R. Phisalaphong (as from 01/09/99), H. Rojas-Romagosa (as from 01/09/01), M.W. Rombout (until 01/09/01), J.F. Slijkerman (as from 01/05/01), Y.V. Veld-Merkoulova (as from 01/09/98), L.M. Vinhas de Souza (as from 01/09/98), M. van der Voort (as from 01/09/00), P. Wrasai (as from 01/12/99).

UvA: R. Aidis (as from 01/09/98), C.H.S. Bouwman (until 01/7/01), Y.C. Cheung (as from 01/09/00), W.H. Daal (as from 01/9/98), S. Dezelan (as from 01/01/97), K. Grabiszewski (as from 01/09/00), K. Gerxhani (until 01/12/01), N. van Horen (as from 01/05/00), B. Jacobs (until 01/09/01), S.R. Rossetto (as from 01/04/98), I. Schindele (as from 26/10/98), M. Schouwstra (as from 01/01/00).

VU: R. Anglingkusumo (as from 01/09/00), J. Caceres (as from 01/11/97), M. Dekker (as from 01/01/99), W. Janssens (as from 01/09/01), I. Keijsper (as from 01/09/00), R.A. Sparrow (as from 01/06/01), M. van Veelen (as from 01/09/98).

Discussion papers: 01-001/2 Hans Hoogeveen, VU, Evidence on Informal Insurance in Rural Zimbabwe 01-002/2 Casper van Ewijk, UvA and CPB, Paul Tang, CPB, Efficient Progressive Taxes and

Education Subsidies 01-019/2 Enrico C. Perotti, UvA, and CEPR, Ernst-Ludwig von Thadden, Université de

Lausanne, and CEPR, Outside Finance, Dominant Investors and Strategic Transparancy

01-021/2 André Lucas, VU, Ronald van Dijk, ING Investment Management, and Tilburg University, Teun Kloek, EUR, and ING Investment Management, Stock Selection,

10

Style Rotation, and Risk 01-023/2 André Lucas, VU, Pieter Klaassen, ABN AMRO Bank NV, Peter Spreij, UvA, and

Stefan Straetmans, Maastricht University, Tail Behavior of Credit Loss Distributions for General Latent Factor Models

01-033/2 Wilfred J. Ethier, University of Pennsylvania, Unilateralism in a Multilateral World 01-035/2 Silvia Caserta, Antonio Paolo Russo, EUR, More means Worse – Asymmetric

Information, Spatial Displacement and Sustainable Heritage Tourism 01-037/2 Neelam Jain, Rice University, Thomas D. Jeitschko, Texas A&M University,

Leonard J. Mirman, University of Virginia, Financial Intermediation and Entry Deterrence

01-043/2 Ronald J. Balvers, Douglas W. Mitchell, West Virginia University, USA, Reducing the Dimensionality of Linear Quadratic Control Problems

01-059/2 Bert Menkveld, EUR, Splitting Orders in Fragmented Markets 01-060/2 Koen G. Berden, Charles van Marrewijk, EUR, Maintenance Costs, Obsolescence,

and Endogenous Growth 01-069/2 Jón Daníelsson, London School of Economics, Bjørn N. Jorgensen, Harvard Business

School, Casper G. de Vries, EUR, Xiaogang Yang, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Optimal Portfolio Allocation under a Probabilistic Risk Constraint and the Incentives for Financial Innovation

01-070/2 Namwon Hyung, Casper G. de Vries, EUR, and Eurandom, Portfolio Diversification Effects and Regular Variation in Financial Data

01-071/2 P. Hartmann, European Central Bank, S. Straetmans, University Maastricht, C.G. de Vries, EUR, Asset Market Linkages in Crisis Periods

01-091/2 Menno Pradhan, World Bank and VU, David E. Sahn, Stephen D. Younger, Cornell University, Decomposing World Health Inequality

01-092/2 Menno Pradhan, World Bank and VU, Welfare Analysis with a Proxy Consumption Measure – Evidence from a Repeated Experiment in Indonesia

01-093/2 Menno Pradhan, World Bank and VU, Who wants Safer Streets? Explaining Concern for Public Safety in Brazil

01-094/2 Jón Daníelsson, London School of Economics, Bjørn N. Jorgensen, Harvard Business School, Casper G. de Vries, EUR, and NIAS, Incentives for Effective Risk Management

01-104/2 Jean-Marie Viaene, EUR, Itzhak Zilcha, The Eitan Berglas School of Economics, Tel Aviv University, Human Capital Formation, Income Inequality and Growth

01-112/2 Frank de Jong, UvA, CEPR, Jacco Wielhouwer, ING Group, CentER, Tilburg University, The Valuation and Hedging of Variable Rate Savings Accounts

01-113/2 Frank de Jong, UvA, CEPR, Frans A. de Roon, CentER, Tilburg University, Time-Varying Market Integration and Expected Returns in Emerging Markets

01-114/2 Frank de Jong, UvA, CEPR, Measures of Contributions to Price Discovery: A Comparison

Thesis Defences: D.J. Bezemer (16-10-2001), Structural Change in Central European Agriculture. Studies from the Czech and Slovak Republics (Prof. M.J. Ellman) S. Dezelan (28-09-2001), The Impact of Institutional Investors on Equity Markets and their Liquidity (Prof. A.W.A. Boot) H. Hoogeveen (26-04-2001), Risk and Insurance in Rural Zimbabwe (Prof. J.W. Gunning, Prof. P.F. Lanjouw) P. Klijnsmit (01-03-2001), Voluntary Corporate Governance Disclosures; An Empirical Investigation of UK Practices (Prof. Philip Wallage RA)

11

I.F.C. Mulder (6-2-2001), Soil Degradation in Benin: Farmers' Perceptions and Responses (Prof. J.W. Gunning, Dr. C.P.J. Burger) P.J.G. Tang (29-3-2001), Essays on Economic Growth and Imperfect Markets (Prof. C. van Ewijk, Dr. F. van der Ploeg)

Seminars Tinbergen Institute Amsterdam January

30 Raman Uppal, M.I.T & London Business School, GB, Model Misspecification and Under-Diversification

February 13 Kjell Nyborg, London Business School, GB, R&D, Capital Investments, and Financing

under Repeated Moral Hazard March 27 Pascal Maenhout, INSEAD, France, Robust Portfolio Rules and Asset Pricing April 10 Moshe Kim, University of Haifa, Israel, Estimating Switching Costs and Oligopolistic

Behavior 19 Stephen Figlewski, New York University, USA, Is the ‘Leverage Effect’ a Leverage Effect? 27 Stefan Dercon, Oxford University, GB, Growth and Poverty in Rural Ethiopia

John Hoddinott, Dalhousie University, Canada, Child Growth in the Time of Drought in Zimbabwe Peter Lanjouw, World Bank, Washington, Is Census Income an Adequate Measure of Household Welfare?

May 8 Stefano Lovo, HEC, France, Bid-Ask Price Competition with Asymmetric Information

between Market Makers 15 Roman Inderest, University College London, GB, Competition and Efficiency in the Market

for Venture Capital 18 Gerhard Anders, EUR, Corruption in Context: Civil Servants in Malawi as Providers and

Recipients of Social Support Edwin de Jong, University of Nijmegen, How Secure is Social Security in Northeast Thailand; Rural Social Security Mechanisms in the Aftermath of the Economic Crisis

23 Eduardo Schwartz, UCLA, USA, Rational Pricing of Internet Companies Revisited 29 Russ Wermers, University of Maryland, USA, Predicting Mutual Fund Returns June 12 Ernst Maug, Humboldt University, USA, What is the Function of the Shareholder Meeting?

Evidence from the U.S. Proxy Voting Process 13 Hal Hill, Australian National University in Canberra, Australia,

Daniel, Fitzpatrick, Australian National University in Canberra, Australia, Economic and Social Development in East Timor

12

July 9-13

CIFRA-Wharton-TI Summer Theory Workshop -Catherine Casamatta, Université Toulouse, France, Antoinette Schoar, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), USA, Venture Financing in Early Stages -Enrico Perotti, UvA, Creation of Firms around Truly Novel Ideas -Massako Ueda, UPF-Wisconsin, USA, Optimal Project Rejection and New Firm Start-Ups -Ulf Axelson, The University of Chicago, USA, Roman Inderest, University College London, GB, Transparency, Governance and Internal Capital Markets -Roman Inderest, University College London, GB, Competition and Efficiency -Paolo Volpin, London Business School, GB, Political Economy and Finance -Marco Pagano, Università di Salerno, Italy, Paolo Volpin, London Business School, GB, Managers, Workers and Corporate Rents -Jesus Santos, Columbia University, USA, Information Gathering: Markets versus Institutions -Raghu Rajan, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), USA, Luigi Zingales, The University of Chicago, USA, A Theory of Property Rights -Jesus Santos, Columbia University, USA, Referrals

September 11 Pietro Veronesi, University of Chicago, USA, Belief-dependent Utilities, Aversion to State-

Uncertainty and Asset Prices 25 Mariassunta Giannetti, Stockholm School of Economics, Sweden, Risk Sharing and Firm

Size: Theory and International Evidence October 2 Alexander Ljungqvist, New York University, USA, Hot Markets, Investor Sentiment, and

IPO Pricing 9 James Dow, London Business School, GB, Active Agents, Passive Principals: the Role of

the Chief Executive in Corporate Strategy Formulation and Implementation November 6 Michel Habib, London Business School, GB, The Role of IPO Syndicates in Precluding

Excess Search Tinbergen Institute Rotterdam February 8 Dirk Tasche, Zentrum Mathematik, Technische Universität München, Modern Portfolio

Theory with Homogeneous Risk Measures 23 Itzhak Zilcha, Tel-Aviv University, Human Capital and Growth - The Role of

Information José Luis Moraga-Gonzalez, EUR, Quality and Trade Policy

March 9 Charles van Marrewijk, EUR, An Introduction to Geographical Economics (joint work

with Steven Brakman and Harry Garretsen), org. Pieter van Foreest, EUR Discussants: Jean Paelinck, Bert van der Knaap, EUR

9 Paul Kofman, University of Technology, Sydney, Regulatory Tools and Price Changes in Futures Markets (joint work with Tony Hall), ERIM, EUR

14 Luca Roero, DSPEA, Politecnico di Torino, Asset Liability Management by Stochastic Programming Approach: applications to defined-contribution pension plans, ECFR, EUR

16 Ai-Tung Goh, CORE, Louvain-la-Neuve, HEC, Singapore, Learning by Doing, Trade in

13

Capital Goods and Growth Jacques Olivier, HEC, Singapore, Free Trade and Protection of Intellectual Property Rights: Can we have one without the Other?

26 Vitor Gaspar, European Central Bank, The ECB Monetary Policy Strategy and the Money Market

28 Chris Veld, Tilburg University, An Empirical Analysis of the Recent Popularity of European Spin-offs

30 Wouter J. den Haan, UCSD, NBER, Shocks and Institutions in a Job Matching Model April 6 Michèle Fratianni, Indiana University, International Lender of Last Resort: A Concept

in Search of a Meaning (joint work with John Pattison) 20 Stephen Figlewski, NYU, Stern School of Business, Is the ‘Leverage Effect’ a Leverage

Effect? May 11-12 Monetary and Exchange Rate Strategies related to the Current European Union's

Enlargement Processes, ACE Workshop organised by Casper G. de Vries, Lúcio Vinhas de Souza, and Joseph Francois, all EUR Speakers: -Lucjan T. Orlowski, Sacred Heart University, and CASE, Warsaw -Casper G. de Vries, EUR -Roman Matousek, Czech National Bank -Eduard Hochreiter, Austrian Central Bank -Riccardo Rovelli, Università di Bologna -Willem Buiter, EBRD and CEPR, UK -Jens Hölscher, Brighton University -Joseph Plasmans, UFSIA, University of Antwerp -Lucio Vinhas de Souza, EUR -Antanas Buracas, Vilnus University -Carolin Nerlich, European Central Bank -Koen Schoors, University of Gent and University of Oxford -Henk Jager, UvA

June 22 Dmitry Levando, Higher School of Economics in Moscow, Costs and Segmentation of

the Russian Equity Market October 31 Thierry Post, EUR, Stochastic Dominance in Case of Portfolio Diversification December 4 John Cotter, University College Dublin, Varying the VaR for Unconditional and

Conditional Environments

Visitors: • Namwon Hyung, University of California, San Diego, Rotterdam, January – December • José-Luis Moraga-Gonzalez, University Carlos III, Madrid, January - December • Itzhak Zilcha, Tel Aviv University, Rotterdam, February 18 – 24 • Paul Kofman, University of Technology, Sydney, Rotterdam, March 7 – 13 • Ian Wooton, University of Glasgow, Rotterdam, March 26 – April 20 • S. Ghon Rhee, University of Hawai’i, Rotterdam, May 15 – June 12 • Wouter den Haan, University of California, San Diego, Rotterdam, October 15 – 28

14

2.3 LABOR, REGION AND ENVIRONMENT Co-ordinator: P. Rietveld (VU) and G.J. van den Berg (VU); from 18 June: H. Oosterbeek (UvA); Deputy-Co-ordinator: J.J.C.M. van den Bergh (VU)

Research Fellows: EUR: L. van den Berg, J. van der Borg, G.A. van der Knaap, J.H.M. Nelissen, J.H.P. Paelinck,

C.N. Teulings, A.R. Thurik UvA: S. S. Gustafsson, J. Hartog, H. Oosterbeek, B.M.S. van Praag (B. Heijdra, F. van der Ploeg, S.J.G. van Wijnbergen) VU: R.J.M. Alessie, E.J. Bartelsman, G.J. van den Berg, J.C.J.M. van den Bergh, F.A.G. den

Butter, P. Frijters, C. Gorter, M. Lindeboom, P. Nijkamp, P. Rietveld, J. Rouwendal, E.T. Verhoef, C. Withagen

(G. Ridder)

Junior Research Fellows: EUR: P.A. Gautier UvA: E.J.S. Plug VU: H.L.F. de Groot, M.A. Janssen

PhD Students: EUR: J.A. Th. van Golde (until 16/05/01), J.M.P. de Kok (until 01/03/01), G.J. Kula (as from

01/09/99), E. Mendys (as from 01/09/98), G. Müller (as from 01/09/01), J.A. Nijkamp (until 01/08/01), A.H.J. Otgaar (as from 01/09/99), Â. dos Reis Portela (as from 01/09/01), A.P. Russo (as from 01/11/97), A. van Stel (as from 16/11/00).

UvA: P. Cardoso (as from 01/10/99), A. Ferrer-Carbonell (as from 15/01/99), N. Jonker (until 15/01/01), E. Kenjoh (as from 01/09/98), S. Raita (as from 01/09/00), A. Raychaudhuri (until 01/03/01), A. Zorlu (until 01/10/01), M. Zijl (as from 01/09/00).

VU: F. Bal (until 15/05/01), A. de Blaeij (as from 01/10/98), M.R.E. Brons (as from 01/08/01), J.M. Dalhuisen (as from 15/04/98), J. Dekkers (as from 01/10/01), M.W. van Gelderen (as from 15/07/99), T. de Graaff (until 01/12/01), C.M. van der Heide (as from 01/06/98), R. Hoekstra (as from 01/09/98), B. Hof (as from 01/10/98), M. Koetse (as from 01/01/00), E. Jongen (as from 01/09/97), R. van der Kruk (as from 01/01/00), G.J. Linders (as from 01/05/01), S. Longhi (as from 01/02/01), M. Mastrogiacomo (as from 01/09/99), R.H.J. Mosch (as from 01/07/99), A. Mulatu (as from 01/09/98), K. Oltmer (as from 01/10/98), A. da Silva Pinto de Sá (as from 01/09/01), J.J. de Vries (as from 01/06/00), S. Vujic (as from 01/09/00), A. van Vuuren (until 01/09/01), D. van Vuuren (as from 01/02/98), S. Wang (as from 01/05/98), A. Wang (as from 01/09/99), J. Noailly (as from 01/06/99).

Discussion papers: 01-005/3 Ron Vreeker, Peter Nijkamp, Chris Ter Welle, VU, A Multicriteria Decision

Support Methodology for Evaluating Airport Expansion Plans 01-008/3 Paul Frijters, Alexander F. Tieman, The Pre-commitment Advantage of having a

Slow Legislative System 01-010/3 B.M.S. van Praag, UvA, B.E. Baarsma, SEO, UvA, The Shadow Price of

Aircraft Noise Nuisance 01-020/3 A.L. Bovenberg, Tilburg University, C.N. Teulings, EUR, Insurance and

15

Information: Firms as a Commitment Device 01-024/3 Jeljer Hoekstra, and Jeroen C.J.M. van den Bergh, VU, Harvesting and

Conservation in a Predator-Prey System 01-025/3 Jeroen C.J.M. van den Bergh, and Justin M. Holley, VU, An Environmental-

Economic Assessment of Genetic Modification of Agricultural Crops 01-026/3 Erik T. Verhoef, Jan Rouwendal, VU, A Structural Model of Traffic Congestion 01-027/3 Arianne de Blaeij, Daniel van Vuuren, VU, Risk Perception of Traffic

Participants 01-028/3 Thomas de Graaff, Cees Gorter, Peter Nijkamp, VU, Effects of Ethnic

Geographical Clustering on Educational Attainment in the Netherlands 01-030/3 Ingrid Verheul, EUR and EIM, Sander Wennekers, EIM, David Audretsch,

Indiana University, Roy Thurik, EUR and EIM, An Eclectic Theory of Entrepreneurship: Policies, Institutions and Culture

01-036/3 Henri L.F. de Groot, VU, Cees A. Withagen, Tilburg University, CentER, VU, Zhou Minliang, Institute of Industrial Economics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Dynamics of China's Regional Development and Pollution

01-038/3 Jan de Kok, EUR, Lorraine M. Uhlaner, EUR, and Eastern Michigan University, Organization Context and Human Resource Management in the Small Firm

01-039/3 Abay Mulatu, and Raymond J.G.M. Florax, VU, Cees A.A.M. Withagen, VU, and Tilburg University, Environmental Regulation and Competitiveness

01-042/3 Aslan Zorlu, Joop Hartog, UvA, Migration and Immigrants: The case of the Netherlands

01-047/3 Martijn Brons, Eric Pels, Peter Nijkamp, Piet Rietveld, VU, Price Elasticities of Demand for Passenger Air Travel

01-048/3 Enno Masurel, Peter Nijkamp, Murat Tastan, Gabriella Vindigni, VU, Motivations and Performance Conditions for Ethnic Entrepreneurship

01-049/3 Pim Klamer, Cees Gorter, Peter Nijkamp, VU, Retail Investments by Real Estate Investment Trusts

01-056/3 Joelle Noailly, Jeroen van den Bergh, Cees Withagen, VU, Evolution of Harvesting Strategies: Replicator and Resource Dynamics

01-057/3 Jasper M. Dalhuisen, Raymond J.G.M. Florax, Henri L.F.M. de Groot, Peter Nijkamp, VU, Price and Income Elasticities of Residential Water Demand: Why Empirical Estimates differ

01-064/3 Galit Cohen, VU, Marina van Geenhuizen, Delft University of Technology, Peter Nijkamp, Urban Planning and Information and Communication Technology: Ideas and Facts

01-066/3 Toshihiko Miyagi, Gifu University, Japan, Economic Appraisal for Multiregional Impacts by a Large-scale Expressway Project

01-074/3 D.B. Audretsch, Indiana University, CEPR, and EIM; M.A. Carree, CASBEC, EUR, University Maastricht, and EIM; A.R. Thurik, CASBEC, EUR, and EIM, Does Entrepreneurship reduce Unemployment?

01-080/3 James W. Albrecht, Georgetown University, Washington DC, Pieter A. Gautier, EUR, Susan B. Vroman, Georgetown University, Washington DC, Matching with Multiple Applications

01-086/3 Siv Gustafsson, Eiko Kenjoh, UvA, Cecile Wetzels, TNO/STB, Employment Choices and Pay Differences between Non-Standard and Standard Work in Britain, Germany, Netherlands and Sweden

01-087/3 Eline C.M. van der Heijden, Tilburg University, Jan H.M. Nelissen, EUR, Jan J.M. Potters and Harrie A.A. Verbon, Tilburg University, Simple and Complex Gift Exchange in the Laboratory

01-088/3 H.P. Huizinga, Tilburg University, J.H.M. Nelissen, EUR, R. Vander Vennet, Ghent University, Efficiency Effects of Bank Mergers and Acquisitions

01-089/3 Eline C.M. van der Heijden, Tilburg University, Jan H.M. Nelissen, EUR, Harrie A.A. Verbon, Tilburg University, Should the Same Side of the Market always move first in a Transaction? An Experimental Study

16

01-090/3 Robert A.J. Dur, Coen N. Teulings, EUR, Education and Efficient Redistribution 01-095/3 Giovanni Russo, Utrecht University, Aura Reggiani, Bologna University, Peter

Nijkamp, VU, Modelling and Estimating Modal Share in European Transport 01-097/3 Shunli Wang, Peter Nijkamp, Onno Kuik, VU, Global Environment Change

Regimes 01-098/3 Shunli Wang, Peter Nijkamp, Erik Verhoef, VU, Modelling Externalities

between Ecological and Economic Systems 01-100/3 Aura Reggiani, University of Bologna, Thomas de Graaff, Peter Nijkamp, VU,

Resilience: An Evolutionary Approach to Spatial Economic Systems 01-103/3 Maarten Lindeboom, France Portrait, VU, Gerard J. van den Berg, VU, CEPR,

and IFAU-Uppsala, An Econometric Analysis of the Mental-health Effects of Major Events in the Life of Elderly Individuals

01-108/3 Piet Rietveld, VU, Environmental Effects of Public Transport: On the Gap between Average and Marginal Costs

01-109/3 Piet Rietveld, Jasper Dekkers, Stefan van Woudenberg, VU, Choice of Frequency and Vehicle Size in Rail Transport: Implications for Marginal External Costs

01-110/3 Piet Rietveld, VU, Rounding of Arrival and Departure Times in Travel Surveys: An Interpretation in Terms of Scheduled Activities

01-111/3 Piet Rietveld, VU, Biking and Walking: The Position of Non-Motorised Transport Modes in Transport Systems

01-117/3 Erik Verhoef, VU, Peter Nijkamp, VU, Joe Daniel, University of Delaware, Urban Sustainability, Agglomeration Forces and the Technological Deus ex Machina

01-121/3 Jasper Dalhuisen, Peter Nijkamp, MASTER-point, VU, Critical Factors for Achieving Multiple Goals with Water Tariff Systems

01-122/3 Rob Alessie, VU, Stefan Hochguertel, European University Institute, and Uppsala University, Arthur van Soest, Tilburg University, Non-Take-up of Tax-favored Savings Plans

Thesis Defences: A. Heyma (06-09-2001), Dynamic Models of Labour Force Retirement; An Empirical Analysis of Early Exit in the Netherlands (Prof. J.J.M. Teeuwes, Prof. M. Lindeboom) N. Jonker (13-06-2001), Job Performance and Career Prospects of Auditors (Prof. J. Hartog) E. Kuiper (08-02-2001), The Most Valuable of all Capital. A Gender Reading of Economic Texts (Prof. S.S. Gustafsson, Dr. G.A. Reuten) S. van Velzen (06-02-2001), Supplements to the Economics of Household Behavior (Prof. S.S. Gustafsson) A.J. van der Vlist (22-05-2001), Residential Mobility and Commuting (Prof. P. Rietveld, Prof. P. Nijkamp)

Seminars: Tinbergen Institute Amsterdam January

30 Anders Björklund, SOFI/Stockholm University, Sweden, The Educational Attainment of Adopted Children born abroad – Swedish Evidence Katharina Richardson, Office of Labour Market Policy Evaluation, Uppsala, Sweden, Office of Labour Market Policy Evaluation

17

February 13 Winfried Koeniger, European University Institute, Italy, Trade, Labor Market Rigidities

and Technology Change 27 Hidehiko Ichimura, University College London, GB, Direct Estimation of Policy Impacts March 13 Harald Dale-Olsen, Institute for Social Research/Oslo, Norway, Paying more to pay less?

The Impact of Wage Policies on Overall Costs 27 Christopher Schmidt, University of Heidelberg, Direct Estimation of Policy Impacts

Evaluation of Community-Based Interventions: A Monte Carlo Study April 3 Workshop Applied Micro-Econometrics

-Maarten Lindeboom, VU, Health and Work of the Elderly – Subjective Health Measures, Reporting Errors and the Endogenous Relationship between Health and Work -Hessel Oosterbeek, UvA, Evaluating the Effect of Tax Deductions on Training -Hans Bloemen, VU, Consumption Smoothing, Unemployment Benefits, and Income Shocks Due to Job Loss -Peter Kooreman, Rijksuniversiteit Groningen, Discrete Choice Models with Social Interactions; an Analysis of Smoking Behavior Among High School Teens

10 Jochen Kluve, Heidelberg University, Germany, On the Role of Counterfactuals in Inferring Causal Effects of Treatments Laura Larsson, Uppsala University, IFAU, Sweden, Evaluation of Swedish Youth Labour Market Programmes

May 8 Adrian Masters, University of Essex, GB, Duration Dependent UI Payments in a Model of

Equilibrium Unemployment 15 International Workshop on Advances in Modern Aviation Economics

-Ken Button, George Mason University, USA, Economic Development: Airports as Facilitators -Jan Brueckner, University of Illinois, USA, Airport Congestion When Carriers Have Market Power -Mark Lijesen, Netherlands Bureau of Economic Policy Analysis, The Hague -Piet Rietveld, VU, Peter Nijkamp, VU, Measuring Competition among Carriers -Martijn Brons, Peter Nijkamp, Eric Pels, Piet Rietveld, VU, A Comparitive Meta-Analytical Study into Demand Elasticities of Airfares -Joe Daniel, University of Delaware, USA, Effects of Airport Development

15 Marten Palme, Stockholm School of Economics, Sweden, Assessing the Effect of Schooling on Earnings using a Social Experiment Edward Vytlacil, Stanford University, USA, Semiparametric Identification of the Average Treatment Effect in Nonseparable Models

23 Richard Arnott, Boston College, USA, Real Estate Cycles Jan Rouwendal, VU, Preferences for Housing, Jobs and Commuting

18

June 6 Workshop on Entrepeneurship, ICT and the Region

-Peter Nijkamp, VU, Entrepreneurship, ICT and the Region: A Research Triangle -David Audretsch, Growth Regimes over Time and Space -Roger Stough, ICT and Knowledge Challenges for Entrepreneurs -Don Janelle, Threats to Regional Social Capital and the Entrepreneurial Development in the New Economy -Charlie Karlsson, The Spatial Industrial Dynamics of the ICT Sector in Sweden -Juan Cuadrado Roura, ICT Regional Disparities and SMEs Policies. The Spanish Case with Antonio G. Tabuenca) -Geoff Hewings, The Changing Geography of Exogeneity in the Generation of Regional Growth in the Midwest of the US -Helen Couclelis, Pizza over the Internet: E-commerce, the Fragmentation of Activity, and the Tyranny of the Region -Ed Malecki, Fiber Tracks: Explaining Investment in Internet Backbones -Enno Masurel, Websites and SMEs: Does it Have Productivity Impact? -Shelby Gerking, Knowledge Transfer and the Location of New Firms in the Dutch Province of Zuid-Holland -Peter Nijkamp, VU, Entrepeneurial Motives in an Uncertain World -Colin Wren, Entrepeneurship and Economic Development: A Framework for Policy -Johan Klaesson, Freight Transport Cooperation – A Club Theory Approach and a Case Study -Marina van Geenhuizen, Cities and Cyberspace -Dieter Bögenhold, Two Sides of Entrepeneurship: Preliminary Thought about Entrepreneurship in Contemporary Societies -Henri de Groot, VU, Trade in Services and Economic Development -Roger Stough, Even More Perspectives

12 Achim Wambach, University of Munich, Germany, Breakdown of Will and the Value of Information

September 4 John Rust, Yale University, USA, A Life Cycle Model with Pensions, Retirement, and

Disability 11 Jerome Adda, University College London, GB, Rational Addiction and Endogenous

Mortality: Does Heterogeneity in Life Expectancy Explain Differences in Smoking Behavior?

October 2 Thierry Magnac, LEA, France, Binary Variables and Fixed Effects: Generalizing

Conditional Logit 9 Hielke Buddelmeyer, IZA, Germany, Re-employment Dynamics of Disabled Workers 16 Applied Labour Day

-Edwin Leuven, UvA, A New Method to Estimate the Wage Returns to Work-related Training (with Hessel Oosterbeek) -Rafael Lalive, University of Zurich, Switzerland, How does Maximum Unemployment Benefit Duration Affect the Transition Rate to Jobs? Accounting for Policy Endogeneity -Jaap Abbring, VU, Treatment Effects in Duration Models -Rob Euwals, Institute for the Study of Labor, IZA, Germany, What matters most: Teaching or Research? Empirical Evidence on the Remuneration of British Academics (with Melanie ward)

23 Jan van Ours, Tilburg University, On the Dynamics in the Consumption of Alcohol, Tobacco, Cannabis and Cocaine

30 Sylvie Lambert, LEA, France, Public Schooling Policy in an Imperfect Information Context

19

November 6 Steve Pischke, London School of Economics, GB, Does Shorter Schooling hurt Student

Performance and Earnings? Evidence from the German Short School Years 13 Frank Windmeijer, Institute for Fiscal Studies, University College London, GB, Cigarette

Taxes and Smoking Behavior in the UK

20

2.4 ECONOMETRICS Co-ordinator: S.J. Koopman (VU); Deputy-Co-ordinator: R. Dekker (EUR)

Research Fellows: EUR: H. Bart, R. Dekker, D.J. van Dijk, H.K. van Dijk, P.H.B.F. Franses, J.B.G. Frenk,

L.F.M. de Haan, C. Heij, T. Kloek, R. Paap, A.P.M. Wagelmans UvA: H.P. Boswijk, J.S. Cramer, N.M. van Dijk, J.G. de Gooijer, M.J. Goovaerts, J.F. Kiviet,

J.C.M. van Ophem, R. Paap VU: S.J. Koopman, M. Ooms, H.C. Tijms (G.J. van den Berg, C.G.E. Boender, A. Lucas)

Junior Research Fellows: UvA: F.R. Kleibergen

PhD Students: EUR: E.M. Bázsa (as from 01/09/97), C.S. Bos (until 01/02/01), L. Hoogerheide (as from

01/09/00), D. Huisman (as from 01/09/99), J.-J. Jonker (until 01/09/01), R.H. Kleijn (as from 01/10/98), D. Li (as from 01/11/00), T. Lin (as from 01/01/98), O.L. Listes (as from 01/09/98), P.J.M. Meersmans (until 01/02/01), J.E.M. van Nierop (as from 01/09/98), R. van Oest (as from 01/09/00).

UvA: M. Bun (until 01/05/01), A. van der Ploeg (as from 01/09/00), A. Ule (as from 15/09/98), H. van de Velden (until 01/10/01), D. Zerom (as from 01/05/98).

VU: N.K. Boots (until 01/10/01), P. Hoonhout (as from 01/11/97), K.M. Lee (as from 1/9/01), J. Wille (as from 01/11/97).

Discussion papers: 01-006/4 Maurice J.G. Bun, Jan F. Kiviet, UvA, The Accuracy of Inference in Small Samples

of Dynamic Panel Data Models 01-007/4 Maurice J.G. Bun, UvA, Bias Correction in the Dynamic Panel Data Model with a

Nonscalar Disturbance Covariance Matrix 01-009/4 Jaap van der Hart, Erica Slagter, Robeco Groep, Dick van Dijk, EUR, Stock

Selection Strategies in Emerging Markets 01-012/4 Nam Kyoo Boots, VU, Perwez Shahabuddin, Columbia University, Simulating Tail

Probabilities in GI/GI.1 Queues and Insurance Risk Processes with Subexponentail Distributions

01-017/4 Charles S. Bos, Ronald J. Mahieu, Herman K. van Dijk, EUR, Daily Exchange Rate Behaviour and Hedging of Currency Risk

01-018/4 Charles S. Bos, Ronald J. Mahieu, Herman K. van Dijk, EUR, On the Variation of Hedging Decisions in Daily Currency Risk Management

01-029/4 Charles S. Bos, Philip Hans Franses, EUR, Marius Ooms, VU, Inflation, Forecast Intervals and Long Memory Regression Models

01-031/4 Lutz Kilian, University of Michigan, and CEPR, Mark P. Taylor, University of Warwick, and CEPR, Why is it so difficult to beat the Random Walk Forecast of Exchange Rates?

01-032/4 Siem Jan Koopman, Marius Ooms, VU, Time Series Modelling of Daily Tax Revenues

01-045/4 Vladimir Protassov, EUR, The Stability of Subdivision Operator

21

01-046/4 Vladimir Protassov, EUR, On the Decay of Infinite Products of Trigonometric Polynomials

01-050/4 Nam Kyoo Boots, VU, Michel Mandjes, Bell Laboratories/Lucent Technologies, Fast Simulation of a Queue fed by a Superposition of Many (Heavy-Tailed) Sources

01-051/4 Michel Mandjes, Bell Laboratories/Lucent Technologies, Nam Kyoo Boots, VU, The Shape of the Loss Curve and the Impact of Long-Range Dependence on Network Performance

01-055/4 Paul A. Bekker, University of Groningen, Frank Kleibergen, UvA, Finite-Sample Instrumental Variables Inference using an Asymptotically Pivotal Statistic

01-067/4 Frank Kleibergen, UvA, Testing Parameters in GMM without assuming that they are identified

01-073/4 Frank Kleibergen, UvA, How to overcome the Jeffreys-Lindleys Paradox for Invariant Bayesian Inference in Regression Models

01-076/4 A. Galeotti, EUR, G. Salford, London School of Economics, Electoral Cycles: Do they really fit the Data?

01-077/4 H. Peter Boswijk, UvA, Testing for a Unit Root with Near-Integrated Volatility 01-078/4 H. Peter Boswijk, UvA, Block Local to Unity and Continuous Record Asymptotics 01-079/4 Arjen H. Siegmann, VU, Optimal Saving Rules for Loss-Averse Agents under

Uncertainty 01-081/4 J.B.G. Frenk, EUR, G. Kassay, Babes Bolyai University, Cluj, Introduction to

Convex and Quasiconvex Analysis 01-082/4 J.S. Cramer, Tinbergen Institute, Measures of Fit for Multinomial Discrete Models 01-101/4 Emöke Bázsa, Peter den Iseger, EUR, Single Item Inventory Models 01-102/4 Emöke Bázsa, Peter den Iseger, EUR, Optimal Continuous Order Quantity (s,s)

Policies 01-105/4 Richard Kleijn, Herman K. van Dijk, EUR, A Bayesian Analysis of the PPP Puzzle

using an Unobserved Components Model 01-107/4 Nico M. van Dijk, Erik van der Sluis, UvA, Simple Product-Form Bounds for

Queueing Networks with Finite Clusters 01-118/4 Jan F. Kiviet, UvA, Garry D.A. Phillips, Cardiff Business School, Wales, UK,

Moment Approximation for Least Squares Estimators in Dynamic Regression Models with a Unit Root

01-119/4 Noud P.A. van Giersbergen, Jan F. Kiviet, UvA, How to implement the Bootstrap in Static or Stable Dynamic Regression Models

01-120/4 Noud P.A. van Giersbergen, UvA, Bias Correction in a Stable AD(1,1) Model: Weak versus Strong Exogeneity

Thesis Defences: C.S. Bos (13-09-2001), Time Varying Parameter Models for Inflation and Exchange Rates (Prof. H.K. van Dijk, Prof. P.H.B.F. Franses) M.J.G. Bun (26-06-2001), Accurate Statistical Analysis in Dynamic Panel Data Models (Prof. J.F. Kiviet) G.E. Bijwaard (05-06-2001), Rank Estimation of Duration Models (Prof. G. Ridder) G. Draisma (11-01-2001), Parametric and Semi-parametric Methods in Extreme Value Theory (Prof. L.F.M. de Haan) R.A. van der Goot (19-1-2001), High Performance Linda using a Class Library (Prof. A. de Bruin) H. van de Velden (13-12-2001), An Experimental Approach to Expectation Formation in Dynamic Economic Systems (Prof. C.H. Hommes)

22

Seminars: Tinbergen Institute Amsterdam February 9 Workshop on Novel Development

-George Tsiotas, University of Maastricht, Testing Nonlinearities in Stochastic Volatility -Rolf Tschernig, Humboldt University Berlin, Germany, Nonparametric Estimation of Generalized Impulse Response Functions -Joost Driessen, Tilburg University, The Cross-Firm Behaviour of Credit Spreads -Benedikt Pötscher, University of Vienna, Austria, A Problem in Estimating the Distribution of Post-model-selection Estimators

April 27 -Dennis Fok, EUR, Are Individuals Equally Sensitive to Marketing Mix Efforts? Evidence

based on an Extended Brand Choice Model -Francesco Bravo, York University, GB, Blockwise Empirical Cressie-Read Discrepancy Approach to Inference for Time Series Regressions -Jan Magnus, Tilburg University, On the Harm that Pretesting does -Jean-Marie Dufour, University de Montreal, Canada, Invariant Tests Based on M-estimators, Estimating Functions, and the Generalized Method of Moments

May 11 Richard Smith, University of Bristol, GB, Bias and Bias Reduction for GMM and GEL

Estimators June 1 -Brendan McCabe, University of Liverpool, GB, Testing for Persistence in Time Series

-Jeremy Penzer, London School of Economics, GB, On the Detection of Seasonal Shocks 22 Ana Justel, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, Spain, Detection of Outlier Patches

Autoregressive Time Series (Joint with Daniel Peña and Ruey S. Tsay) November 9 TI Econometrics Workshop

-Dawit Zerom, UvA, An Additive Nonparametric Conditional Quantile Smoother from High Dimensional Covariate -Marcia Schafgans, London School of Economics, GB, Tilburg University, On Intercept Estimation in Sample Selection Models (Binary and Multinomial Selection Models) -Murray Smith, University of Sydney, Australia, Modelling Sample Selection -Frank Windmeijer, Institute for Fiscal Studies, University College London, GB, Finite Sample Inference for GMM Estimators in Linear Panel Data Models

Tinbergen Institute Rotterdam: February 6 Gabor Kassay, Babes-Bolyai University Cluj, Rumenia, The Equilibrium Problem and

its Applications (Minimax Theorems, Variational Inequalities, Optimization) 20 Gabor Kassay, Babes-Bolyai University Cluj, Rumenia, Lagrangian Duality and Cone

Convexlike Functions

23

September 27 Peter Spreij (UvA), Nonparametric Volatility Density Estimation October 4 Mattias Villani, Stockholm University, Bayesian Reference Analysis of Cointegration 18 Thomas Trimbur, University of Cambridge, General Model-Based Filters for Extracting

Cycles and Trends in Economic Time Series November 1 Robert Taylor, University of Birmingham, Variance Shifts, Structural Breaks and

Stationarity Tests 8 Zsolt Sandor, EUR, Efficient Estimation of a Market Equilibrium Model with

Differentiated Products 15 Matteo Ciccarelli, Universidad de Alicante, Panel VAR Models: Forecasting, Leading

Indicators and Policy Analysis 22 Melvyn Weeks, University of Cambridge, Assessing the Impact of Corporate Sector

Balance Sheets on the Financial Crises of the 1990s: Bayesian versus Information-Theoretic Approaches

29 Jesus Gonzalo, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid, Subsampling Inference in Treshold Autoregressive Model

December 7 Workshop Financial Econometrics

- Patrick Houweling, EUR and Rabobank International, An Empirical Comparison of Default Swap Pricing Models - André Lucas, VU, Stock Selection, Style Rotation and Risk - Marno Verbeek, EUR, Do Countries or Industries explain Momentum in Europe?

Visitors: David Krackhardt, Carnegie Mellon University and INSEAD, Rotterdam, January 8-12 Gianni Amisano, University of Brescia, Rotterdam, June 1 - 30 Thomas Trimbur, University of Cambridge, Rotterdam, September 1 – November 30 Robert Taylor, University of Birmingham, Rotterdam, November 1 - 4

24

3 OTHER RESEARCH ACTIVITIES 3.1 PhD Students: Some of the students cannot be classified in one of the TI-research groups concerning the content of their subjects, but are affiliated with the Tinbergen Institute: EUR: W.A. van den Berg (as from 01/11/01), J.-P.P.E.F. Boselie (until 01/09/01),

D.J. Dekker (until 01/04/01), M. Mekonnen Akalu (as from 01/10/98), I.V. Ossokina (as from 01/09/98), P.C. Verhoef (as from 01/01/98), S. Wuyts (as from 01/10/98).

UvA: R.A.J. Bosman (until 1/6/01), C. Brandwijk (as from 16/08/99), D. Brounen (as from 01/09/99), W. Daa1 (as from 01/09/98), V. Dirksen (as from 01/08/00), E. Gustafsson (as from 1/9/01), O.A.C. van Hemert (as from 1/8/01), Y. Hu (as from 01/01/00), H.M. Lam (as from 01/10/97), A. Noteberg (as from 01/09/99), B. Pavlov (as from 01/11/99), M. Po1an (as from 01/10/98), B. van Praag (until 06/06/01), N. Radic (as from 01/11/99), M. van Rinsum (as from 01/05/99), D.F. Schrager (as from 01/09/01), M. Theebe (until 01/09/01), 0. Truijens (01/01/99), J. Tuinstra (01/01/98).

VU: R.K. Andadari (as from 01/09/01), J.W.C. Arts (as from 01/09/01), I.H.C. Blij (as from 01/09/96), H. Dekker (as from 01/10/97), R.J. Imeson (as from 01/06/99), E. Mooi (as from 01/09/00), E. Peek (as from 01/08/96), Z. Sasovova (as from 15/10/99), M. Schoute (as from 01/09/98), A. Siegmann (as from 01/05/98), H. Sunarto (as from 01/09/01), T. Verhagen (as from 01/11/98), E. Wiersma (as from 01/12/97).

Thesis Defences R.A.J. Bosman (19-12-2001), Emotions and Economic Behavior. An Experimental Investigation (Prof. F.A.A.M. van Winden) D.P.J. Botman (10-10-2001), Globalization, Heterogeneity, and Imperfect Information (Prof. H. Jager) D.J. Dekker (24-09-2001), Network Perspectives on Tasks in Account Management (Prof. P.H.B.F. Franses, Prof. F.N. Stokman) E. Peek (19-06-2001), Discretion in Financial Reporting and Properties of Analysts' Earnings Forecasts (Prof. J. Klaassen) B.J. Van Praag (06-06-2001), Earnings Management; Empirical Evidence on Value Relevance and Income Smoothing (Prof. M.N. Hoogendoorn, Prof. H.P.A.J. Langendijk) P.C. Verhoef (20-09-2001), Analyzing Customer Relationships: Linking Relational Constructs and Marketing Instruments to Customer Behavior (Prof. J.C. Hoekstra, Prof. P.H.B.F. Franses)

25

3.2 RESEARCH ON MONDAY SEMINARS Research on Monday is a seminar series of the Faculty of Economics of the EUR and the Tinbergen Institute. Organisation: Herman K. van Dijk, Sanjeev Goyal, and Casper G. de Vries (EUR) SERIES L SPRING February 26 Roland Strausz, Berlin, Mediation in Situations of Conflict

March 5 Bas Donkers, EUR, Sampling Schemes for Data with Binary Outcomes 12 Francis Bloch, Marseille, Multiple Shareholders and Control Contests 19 Jim Albrecht, Georgetown, and EUR, Equilibrium Search with Time-Varying

Unemployment Benefits 26 Juuso Valimaki, Southampton, Information Acquisition and Efficient Mechanism

Design April 2 Richard Paap, EUR, Modelling Unobserved Consideration Sets for Household Panel

Data 23 Torsten Persson, Stockholm, Political Institutions and Policy Outcomes: What are

the Stylized Facts? May 7 Tim Van Zandt, Insead, Information Overload in a Network of Targeted

Communication 14 Benny Moldevanu, Manheim, The Optimal Allocation of Prizes in a Contest 21 Robert Dur, EUR, Intrinsic Motivation and Extrinsic Rewards

June 11 S. Ghon Rhee, Hawai’i, Is the London Market Competitive? A Study of Trading

Behavior of London Market Makers SERIES LI AUTUMN October 15 Wouter J. den Haan, University of California, Bank Loan Components and the

Monetary Transmission Mechanism: Evidence from a Regional Model 22 Gael Martin, Monash University, Australia, On Bayesian Inference for Option Prices 29 Richard Baldwin, GIIS, Geneva, Asymmetric Lobbying: Why Governments pick Losers November 12 Roel Beetsma, UvA, Structural Distortions and Decentralized Fiscal Policies in EMU 19 Andrew Harvey, Cambridge, The Econometrics of Stability and Convergence 26 Robin Lumsdaine, Deutsche Bank, London, The Information in Flow Data December 10 Jean-Marie Baland, Notre-Dame de la Paix, Namur, Collective Savings Arrangements:

Theory and Evidence from a Kenyan Slum

26

3.3 RESEARCH ON THURSDAY SEMINARS 'Seminars on Thursday' is a series of (lunch)seminars of the Faculty of Economics of the University of Amsterdam and the Tinbergen Institute. Organisation: Ralph Bachmann, Cees Diks, Kranc Klaassen, Frank Kleibergen AUTUMN September 6 Petra Geraats, University of Cambridge, GB, Precommitment, Transparency and

Monetary Policy 20 Andrea Prat, London School of Economics, GB, Handcuffs for the Grabbing Hand? The

Role of the Media in Political Accountability 27 Marnik de Kimpe, Catholic University Leuven, Belgium, Do International Entry

Decisions of Retail Chains matter in the Long Run? October 11 Loic Sadoulet, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Belgium, The Marketing of Political

Platforms 18 Qiwei Yao, London School of Economics, GB, Estimation for ARCH/GARCH Models 25 Kaddour Hadri, University of Liverpool, GB, Testing for Stationarity in Panel Data November 1 Marco Janssen, VU, Puzzling Empirical Results from the Study of Common Pool

Resources: Using Multi- Agent Models to provide Alternative Explanations 8 Peter Vlaar, De Nederlandsche Bank, On Capital Flows and the Exchange Rate: An

Application for the Euro-Dollar Rate

TI Financial Support The Tinbergen Institute gives financial contributions to conferences and workshops, organised by researchers allied to the institute. In 2001 the following activities have been realised with the help of the TI: - 3rd International Workshop on Inventory Modelling, March 14-17, Rotterdam

27

28

PART II

TINBERGEN GRADUATE SCHOOL

29

1. INTRODUCTION The Tinbergen Graduate School is responsible for the educational programme and research facilities, as well as the evaluation of students' progress and assessment of their research. Two tracks are offered by the graduate school: an M.Phil. track and a Ph.D. track. The intensive one-year master’s programme leads to a Master of Philosophy degree in economics. Both those students aiming for a Ph.D. in economics, as well as those pursuing careers in top consulting- or policy advice organisations, stand to benefit from the excellent preparation offered by the programme. Four years of solid training in the principles of economics and econometrics (based on lectures, workshops, seminars and examinations), as well as the successful completion of a supervised doctoral thesis, provide the basis of Tinbergen Institute’s Ph.D. programme, the first year of which coincides with the master’s programme. The educational programme is described in the brochure Programme of the Graduate School: Master's and Graduate Programme in Economics 2000/2001. The annual report of the Tinbergen Graduate School refers to the calendar year 2001. The educational activities described in the report, however, refer to the academic year 2000/2001. The report is composed as follows. The structure of the educational programme is described in Chapter 2; courses organized by the Tinbergen Institute can be found in paragraphs 2.1 and 2.2. Chapter 3 describes other educational activities. Chapter 4 contains information (as far as available) on the national educational networks: Netherlands Network of Economics (NAKE), Netherlands Organization for Research in Business Economics & Management (NOBEM) and the Dutch Network on the Mathematics of Operations Research (LNMB). Finally, Chapter 5 contains quantitative information on the inflow and outflow of students. 2. STRUCTURE OF THE EDUCATIONAL PROGRAMME The master's programme starts in September each year and lasts one calendar year. The programme coincides with the first year of the Ph.D. programme and consists of core courses, field or elective courses, and the writing of a supervised thesis. To provide a thorough grounding in economics and econometrics, the core courses include microeconomics, macroeconomics, mathematics for economists, econometrics, and organisation. Alternative programmes are available for students who already have a strong background in Econometrics and/or Mathematics. The core courses are concentrated in the first and second trimester of the academic year. Individual programmes are possible for students who are aiming at separate programmes in Operations Research (OR) or Business Economics (BE). A core course takes 14 weeks and has a course load of 160 hours. The first 4 lectures of the core course Mathematical Methods for Economists are given in a condensed course. This course is a refresher in mathematics and presents the essential tools needed for the other core courses of the programme. Assessment normally takes place by a combination of compulsory take home assignments and formal written examinations. Field or elective courses provide room for specialisation. Field courses are offered in the following clusters of economics:

30

• Econometrics • Environmental and Spatial Economics • Finance • Monetary Economics and International Trade and Development • Labour Economics • Microeconomic Theory and Mathematical Economics • Public Economics Each cluster consists of two or three field courses. A field course in general takes 7 weeks and has a course load of 80 hours. Students must demonstrate competence in two of the clusters listed above. Competence is demonstrated by passing at least two courses in a cluster with satisfactory grades. Assessment normally takes place by compulsory take home assignments or short essays. Other fields obtained from the Dutch national educational networks on Economics (NAKE), Business Economics (NOBEM) and Operations Research (LNMB) may be included, subject to the approval by the director of graduate studies. The programme also allows for optional practical skill courses, such as writing and giving presentations in English, research methodology and techniques. The larger part of the final trimester of the M.Phil. programme is devoted to the writing of a supervised thesis. The students are assigned to a specialist in the research field. The thesis takes about 400 hours and has to be defended before the thesis committee of the Tinbergen Institute. The Master's programme requires a total of 800 hours of core courses and at least 320 hours of field courses. Students continuing with the Ph.D. track may follow some additional specialized courses and participate in workshops and other educational activities in the remaining three years of the Ph.D. programme. The educational programme is conducted entirely in English. Lecturers are research fellows from the Tinbergen Institute, teaching associates from the participating faculties, and guest lecturers from foreign universities. Each TI-course has been evaluated by the participants. The director of graduate studies discusses the evaluation results with the lecturers. Paragraphs 2.1 and 2.2 contain information on TI-courses, organized in 2000/2001. Appendix 1 contains the number of participants. Detailed course information is provided in Appendix 2. Appendix 3 gives an overview of the lecturers.

31

2.1. Core, field and skills courses September 2000- September 2001 Core courses Main core courses TI0001 Introductory econometrics Heij TI0002 Mathematical methods for economists I and II Brinkhuis TI0003 Microeconomics Janssen/Van der Laan TI0004 Macroeconomics Van Ewijk/Van

Marrewijk/Teulings TI0005 Economic theory of the organization I Martin/Moraga TI0005 Economic theory of the organization II Legros TI0006 Advanced econometrics Van Dijk/Van Dijk Field courses TI0007 Applied micro econometrics Alessie/Van den Berg/

Lindeboom/Van Ophem TI0008 Recent developments in economic time

series analysis Franses

TI0011 Computational policy modeling Francois TI0012 Advanced monetary economics De Vries TI0013 Southeast Asian economic policy and

development Hill

TI0014 Growth and poverty: the wealth of nations Gunning/Elbers TI0016 Synthesis and comparison in economic

research Florax/Heijungs/Nijkamp/Withagen

TI0017 Financial markets De Jong TI0018 Quantitative financial risk management Lucas TI0019 Market microstructure Kandel TI0021 Modern macro labour economics Albrecht/Vroman TI0022 Economic theory of political decision-

making Swank/Van Winden

TI0024 Evolutionary game theory Van der Laan TI0031 Learning in games Vega-Redondo TI0032 Evolutionary economics and management Van den Bergh/Janssen TI0033 Corporate finance theory Bachmann TI0034 Missing data and causal inference Ridder Auxilliary courses TI0025 Methodological issues in economic

research Blaug/Boumans

TI0026 Behavioral economics Knetsch/Antonides TI0027 Health economics Van Doorslaer/Van de

Ven/Rutten/Schut/ Bleichrodt

Skills courses TI0028 Writing and presentations in English BLTC TI0029 Applied research in action Veenman

32

3. OTHER EDUCATIONAL ACTIVITIES

3.1 Ph.D. workshops The aim of a Ph.D. workshop is to bring Ph.D. students and (two) foreign experts together. A Ph.D. workshop usually lasts 3 days, consisting of a 1 day course by the two experts, 1 day presentation of papers by Ph.D. students, 0.5 seminar day with paper presentations by the two experts and 0.5 day of private consultations. A Ph.D. workshop brings together different years of Ph.D. students around a theme. For first and second year students the course element of the workshop will be important. For third and fourth year students the paper presentation may be the main element. Each student may benefit from private consul-tations with experts. The consultations usually take 30-45 minutes. The number of Ph.D. students should not be too large: 10-15. Research fellows of the TI can propose a Ph.D. workshop and the TI will take care of the co-ordination and practical arrangements. The course load of a workshop is 40 hours.

3.2 Reading groups The aim of a reading group is to study a recently published book. The reading group may consist of lecturers, research fellows and Ph.D. students. The number of participants is limited: 5-10; and the initiative to form the group has to come from research fellows of the TI. The formal rules, with respect to the course load and possible substitution for reading groups, are the same as those for Ph.D. workshops: 40 hours.

3.3 Ph.D. lunch seminars and presentation days Lunch seminars for Ph.D. students are organized weekly both at the Amsterdam and Rotterdam locations. The idea behind a lunch seminar is to have each week a presentation of a paper by a Ph.D. student. The paper is commented on by another student or a research fellow in front of an audience of students and research fellows. The purpose of a lunch seminar is multifold. Not only is there an element of training in presenting papers, but additionally presenters will benefit from discussions, and students will get to know each other's work. The lunch seminar is intended to be informal so students may present incomplete ideas and unfinished papers. Appendix 4 gives an overview of the lunchseminars that took place in 2001. Another way of training in presenting papers is at the annual NAKE day. During the NAKE day Ph.D. students and junior and senior researchers from all economic faculties and economic institutes in The Netherlands present and discuss their work. The NAKE Day 2001 took place October 12 at the Dutch Central Bank in Amsterdam. Presentations of Ph.D. students at the NAKE day are listed in Appendix 5.

33

3.4 Other activities McKinsey and the Ministry of Finance offer an internship programme for a selected number of TI students. This is an excellent opportunity for students to confront the theoretical insights obtained from the educational programme with highly relevant practical problems that large organisations are confronted with. An internship usually takes two to three months of full-time research, to be performed in the Summerterm. On February 1, the Ph.D. student council organized a Job Market Afternoon in Rotterdam, where a presentation was held by the NMA (Netherlands Competition Authority). Further, an IMF recruitment officer visited Tinbergen Institute Rotterdam on February 26, and Tinbergen Institute Amsterdam on February 28. The seventh TI alumni meeting took place on October 11 in Amsterdam. Guest speaker was Mathijs Bouman (FEM/De Week and TI alumnus). 4. NATIONAL NETWORKS In Appendix 6, an overview will be presented of network courses. NAKE courses were attended by 274 students of whom 83 where affiliated with the Tinbergen Institute. The number of TI participants at LNMB courses was 11 out of 120. No details are available from NOBEM. 5. FACTS AND FIGURES OF THE TINBERGEN GRADUATE SCHOOL In 2001, M.Phil. scholarships were granted to Sebastian Buhai (Romania), Lev Ratnovski (Russia), and Ernesto Reuben (Costa Rica). Further, three students with an external scholarship and five undergraduate students were admitted to the M.Phil. programme. The latter combine their fourth year of the undergraduate study in economics with the M.Phil. programme of the Tinbergen Institute. The first Tinbergen graduation ceremony took place on January 31 in Rotterdam, where 8 M.Phil. graduates received their diploma: Marc Aaldijk (EUR), Dirk Brounen (UvA), Robert Imeson (VU) , Grzegorz Kula (EUR), Ewa Mendys (EUR), Mauro Mastriogiacomo (VU), Robert Mosch (VU), and Joelle Noailly (VU). Ewa Mendys was the first M.Phil. graduate to receive her diploma from Dr. F. van der Ploeg (former director TI and Undersecretary of Culture). Further, the M.Phil. programme was successfully completed by Borislav Pavlov (UvA), Marzena Rostek (UvA), and Stephan Schüller (EUR). An overview of the number of students affiliated with the Tinbergen Institute and the number of thesis defenses in 2001 is presented in the table below.

34

Number of students affiliated with the Tinbergen Institute and thesis defenses in 2001

University number of Ph.D. students as of 31/12/00

inflow outflow number of Ph.D. students as of 31/12/01

number of thesis defenses in 2001

EUR 49 8 13 44 6 UvA 45 3 12 36 13 VU 43 13 9 47 5 Total 137 24 34 127 24

35

APPENDIX 1: PARTICIPANTS TI-COURSES September 2000 - September 2001 Core courses Number of

participants Of whom TI*

TI0001 Introductory econometrics (Heij) 31 20 TI0002 Mathematical methods for economists I and II (Brinkhuis) 30 26 TI0003 Microeconomics (Janssen/Van der Laan) 28 24 TI0004 Macroeconomics (Van Ewijk/Van Marrewijk/Teulings) 27 23 TI0005 Economic theory of the organization I (Martin/Moraga) 21 20 TI0005 Economic theory of the organization II (Legros) 21 21 TI0006 Advanced econometrics (Van Dijk/Van Dijk)** 17 15 Field courses TI0007 Applied micro econometrics (Alessie/Van den Berg/

Lindeboom/Van Ophem) 11 8

TI0008 Recent developments in economic time series analysis (Franses)

14 13

TI0011 Computational policy modeling (Francois) 12 10 TI0012 Advanced monetary economics (De Vries) 11 7 TI0013 Southeast Asian economic policy and development (Hill) 10 9 TI0014 Growth and poverty: the wealth of nations (Gunning/Elbers) 5 4 TI0016 Synthesis and comparison in economic research (Florax a.o.) 13 8 TI0017 Financial markets (De Jong)** 3 2 TI0018 Quantitative financial risk management (Lucas) 7 4 TI0019 Market microstructure (Kandel) 8 7 TI0021 Modern macro labour economics (Albrecht/Vroman) 9 7 TI0022 Economic theory of political decisionmaking (Swank/Van

Winden)*** 9 8

TI0024 Evolutionary game theory (Van der Laan)** 6 6 TI0031 Learning in games (Vega-Redondo) 6 4 TI0032 Evolutionary economics and management (Van den Bergh/

Janssen) 3 3

TI0033 Corporate finance theory (Bachmann) 7 6 TI0034 Missing data and causal inference (Ridder) 5 3 Auxilliary courses TI0025 Methodological issues in economic research (Blaug/

Boumans) 13 11

TI0026 Behavioral economics (Knetsch/Antonides) 9 6 TI0027 Health economics (Van Doorslaer a.o.) 4 1 Skills courses TI0028 Writing and presentations in English (BLTC) 12 12 TI0029 Applied research in action (Veenman) 8 5 _______________ * including students from ERIM (Erasmus Research Institute of Management) and TRAIL (The

Netherlands Research School for Transport, Infrastructure and Logistics) ** undergraduate courses; undergraduate students not included *** based on the number of registered students

36

APPENDIX 2: DETAILS TI-COURSES The course descriptions are the same as included in the brochure Programme of the Graduate School: Master's and Graduate Programme in Economics 2000/2001. ` TI0001 Introductory Econometrics (course load 160 h.) Lecturer: Dr. C. Heij (EUR) Course description: This course provides a practical understanding of basic econometric techniques, making it possible to read empirical economic literature and to use econometric software to perform one's own analysis of economic data. The technique of regression is discussed, as well as various extensions that are needed in concrete economic applications to deal with, for example, heteroscedasticity, simultaneity, non-linearities, and time series aspects. Emphasis is put on the interpretation of models and outcomes of estimation and testing procedures. The students practise this by analyzing economic data by means of the software package Eviews. Literature: R.S. Pindyck and D.L. Rubinfeld, Econometric models and econometric forecasts, fourth edition, McGraw-Hill, 1998. Examination: Take home exams, in combination with a final written examination; full participation in the take home exams is obligatory for admittance to the final exams. Specific remarks: The book is at a rather elementary level, and can be understood with only a limited knowledge of calculus and no knowledge of matrix algebra. It is desirable to have some background in statistics, a brief review of which is given in the course. Depending on the interests of the students, some topics can be treated in greater detail. TI0002 Mathematical Methods for Economists I (course load 60 h.) Lecturer: Dr. J. Brinkhuis (EUR) Course description: This refreshment course consists of four meetings and refreshes the following topics: 1. Calculus: differentiation, integration and the implicit function theorem 2. Matrix algebra: the least squares method 3. Convexity: separation, duality, theorems of the alternative, shadowprices,

quasiconvexity 4. Optimization: Kuhn-Tucker conditions, Envelope theorem Literature: Reader.

37

Examination: Before the course, in the second half of August, participants will receive instructions on how to prepare for the first meeting. During the course active participation is expected. At the end of the course there will be a test. TI0002 Mathematical Methods for Economists II (course load 100 h.) Course description: During the course many topics are discussed which are relevant to a wide range of economic areas. Examples are Macroeconomics (growth theory): Euler equations, Hamiltonians; Finance: Ito calculus, Brownian motion; Econometrics: stochastic processes. Dynamic optimization is a basic technique in economic sciences. Course participants will be given a reader consisting of a collection of well-known articles on dynamic optimization and applications. The aim of the course is to give participants a full understanding of these techniques and their role. Moreover, they will be able to start using these techniques themselves. The course schedule is: 1. Euler equations, transversality conditions, differential equations 2. Pontryagin's maximum principle 3. Bellman's optimality principle 4. Economic applications of Bellman's principle 5. Stochastic processes, Brownian motion 6. Ito calculus 7. Applications Literature: Reader "Dynamic optimization theory". Examination: Active participation in the course; weekly opportunity to hand in work. Written examination at the end of the course. TI0003 Microeconomics (course load 160 h.) Lecturers: Prof.dr. M.C.W. Janssen (EUR), Prof.dr.ir. G. van der Laan (VU) Course description: The aim of the course is to provide participants with a thorough understanding of microeconomic theory, so that they will be able to read theory-based articles in general economic journals. Topics to be dealt with include the theory of the consumer and producer, expected utility, noncooperative game theory, competitive markets, monopoly, oligopology, asymmetric information, general equilibrium, welfare economics, incomplete markets. Literature: A. Mas-Colell, M.D. Whinston, and J.R. Green, Microeconomic Theory. Examination: weekly exercises and final written examination. TI0004 Macroeconomics (course load 160 h.) Lecturers: Prof.dr. C. van Ewijk (UvA/CPB), Dr. C. van Marrewijk (EUR), Prof.dr. C.N. Teulings (TI/EUR)

38

Course description: The Macroeconomics course covers the major theories concerning the central questions of macroeconomics, which studies the economy as a whole. Some examples are: why are some countries rich and others poor?, why do economies grow?, why is there unemployment or inflation?, how do government policies affect output, unemployment, and inflation? Literature: David Romer, Advanced Macroeconomics, McGraw-Hill; reader with approximately 8 articles (to be announced). Course schedule: Block IV (Rotterdam): week 1-7: Van Marrewijk: Chapters 1-3 + papers. Block V (Amsterdam): week 8-10: Teulings: Chapters 5, 10 + papers. Block V (Amsterdam): week 11-14: Van Ewijk: Chapters 7-9 + papers. Chapters 4 and 6 of the Romer book will not be covered in the course. Note: A special arrangement will have to be made to make up for Ascension Day. Examination: Written, at the end of the course. Special remarks: (Weekly) assignments will constitute 25% of the grade in this course. TI0005 Economic Theory of the Organization Part I: Industrial Organization I (course load 80 h.) Lecturers: Prof.dr. S. Martin (UvA), Dr. J.L. Moraga (TI/EUR) Course description: Many markets of economic interest are dominated by a few firms. These firms choose prices, products, qualities, advertising and make investments in R&D, choices that have far reaching effects on the economy and more generally on our societies. This course presents an approach - based on strategic decision making - for understanding the functioning of firms in such markets. We also use this approach to clarify the role of the government in regulating economic activity. Literature: Tirole, J. (1998), The Theory of Industrial Organization, MIT Press; Martin, S. (1993), Advanced Industrial Economics, Blackwell; Scherer, F. and D. Ross (1990), Industrial Market Structure and Economic Performance; Gibbons, R. (1992), Game Theory for Applied Economists, Princeton University Press. Examination: A written final exam. Part II: Economics of Internal Organization (course load 80 h.) Lecturer: Prof. P. Legros (ECARES/ULB) Course description: In the presence of externalities or market imperfections institutions, organizations and firms are necessary mechanisms for allocating resources. The theory of

39

contracts analyzes the tradeoffs between efficiency and distribution associated to different types of institutions or organizations. This theory has become the privileged tool for studying organizations and firms in fields as diverse as industrial organization, macroeconomics, or development economics. This course is a first introduction to the theory and will cover the following topics: (1) Moral hazard, static one person agent models, (2) Moral hazard in teams, tournaments and hierarchies, (3) Career concerns and (if time permits), (4) Incomplete contracting and the hold-up problem, (5) Market determinants of organizations. Literature: An extensive bibliography will be distributed before the course (in the Fall). Compulsory: Hart, O. (1995), Firms, Contracts and Financial Structures, Clarendon Press (chap. 1-4); Salanié, B. (1997), Contract Theory: A Primer, MIT Press. Examination: written examination. TI0006 Advanced Econometrics (course load 160 h.) Lecturers: Prof.dr. H.K. van Dijk (EUR), Dr. D.J.C. van Dijk (EUR) Course description: The first part of the course deals with the specification, estimation and testing of models for qualitative choice and models for duration and transition data. Specific attention is given to modelling the choice of individuals between different modes of transport and to modelling transitions of individuals between employment and unemployment. The statistical inference is based on maximum likelihood and results are derived using first order asymptotic theory. The material is based on Maddala's 1983 book, Limited dependent variables, and Lancaster's 1990 monograph. Application of the models will be illustrated using several articles dealing with empirical problems. The second part of the course deals with dynamic models for panel data - in other words, data collected by observing a number of individuals over time. Estimation and inference in panel data models is complicated due to the presence of unobserved individual and/or time characteristics. In this course we discuss various topics related to panel data models: different specifications of the models are considered (linear/nonlinear, allowing for individual and/or time effects), the properties of commonly used estimation methods are derived (among other: inconsistency of the maximum likelihood estimator), and appropriate methods for estimation and inference in panel data models are reviewed. Applications of the models will be illustrated using several articles dealing with empirical problems. Literature: A reader with compulsory material and suggestions for background reading will be made available. Examination: Written exam and an assignment (paper). Prerequisites: Knowledge of econometrics at the level of a basic textbook like Greene's Econometric Analysis, is required.

40

TI0007 Applied Micro Econometrics (course load 80 h.) Lecturers: Dr. R. Alessie (VU), Prof.dr. G.J. van den Berg (VU), Prof.dr. M. Lindeboom (TI/VU), Dr. J.C.M. van Ophem (UvA) Course description: This course provides an overview of estimation methods required for applied research in economics. The emphasis is on micro-economic research and the use of panel data techniques. The course consists of 4 parts. In the first part fixed effect and random effect estimation of linear models are discussed as well as the synthetic cohort or pseudo panel approach and applications in the labour economics (the return to schoolings, the effect of the minimum wage) and in the literature on the savings. The second part deals with limited dependent variable methods like probit, logit and tobit and sample selection models. While discussing the latter the impact of survey attrition on parameter estimates in behavioural models will be dealt with. The third part concerns an extensive discussion of models for the analysis of duration data. Single risk, competing risk and multi-state duration models and different estimation methods will be discussed. The methods are demonstrated by applications in labour economics, consumer behaviour and financial transaction data. The fourth and the last part of the course concerns the assessment of treatment effect in policy. Applications with linear models, non-linear models, natural experiments and sample selection models will be dealt with. Literature: to be announced. Examination: Take home exam and paper review. Prerequisites: Introductory econometrics. TI0008 Recent Developments in Economic Time Series Analysis (course load 80 h.) Lecturer: Prof.dr. Ph.H.B.F. Franses (EUR) Course description: A review is given of several recent developments in modelling and forecasting economic time series. Issues such as trends, structural breaks, seasonality, outliers, conditional heteroskedasticity and nonlinearity will be addressed. Specific attention is given to multivariate models. All issues are illustrated using a wide range of examples, originating from various economics disciplines such as macroeconomics, finance and marketing. Literature: P.H. Franses (1998), Time Series Models for Business and Economic Forecasting, Cambridge UK, Cambridge University Press (compulsory); various articles. Examination: A paper containing an empirical investigation of a given time series. Prerequisites: Basic econometric knowledge is mandatory. TI0011 Computational Policy Modeling (course load 80 h.) Lecturer: Prof.dr. J.F. Francois (EUR)

41

Course description: Numerical models are now widely used in the economic policy debate. National goverments and international organizations use them to examine trade policy in detail, while environmental scientists work with economic modellers to assess the economic implications of various global warming scenarios. In this sense, they are providing a bridge between real world complexity and economic analysis, and have provided a useful basis for dialog between policy makers and academic economists. In several fields, ranging from macroeconomics to trade and public finance, these models are also used to explore non-local analytical issues and otherwise intractable analytical problems. Yet even as these models become more widely used in theory and policy applications, there is mounting criticism and legitimate questions about what we actually can say about these exercises, if anything. This course is concerned with the application of computational modeling to policy settings. As such, students will be given hands on exposure to common models (global computational models, single and multi-market calibration models, etc.). The topics covered include relatively simple spreadsheet models, as well as more complex models implemented in GAMS and GEMPACK. The simple models may be a useful framework to supplement the teaching of undergraduates, while the more complex models link to advanced research issues. The field of computational modelling has evolved rapidly with the fall in the cost of computing resources, and with the development of new software. For example, in general equilibium modelling, the approach to treating underlying core theory (intermediate linkages, factor markets, etc.) has become relatively standard. In addition, there now exists higher level CGE modelling packages (like GAMS/MPSGE) that offer a more intuitive, and less line-by-line programming approach for economic modellers. To take advantage of these developments, the section of this course on large models does not emphasize building an individual model from scratch. (You can find plenty of material of this type elsewhere.) Rather, standard model frameworks are presented and used to demonstrate different issues, like dynamic closures and market structure specifications. In this way we use models to illustrate theory and better inform the "it depends" answers we often get out of pure theory. Literature: A reader of articles will be provided. Examination: The course involves lectures, as well as computer-based problem sets (available over the internet). TI0012 Advanced Monetary Economics (course load 80 h.) Lecturer: Prof.dr. C.G. de Vries (EUR) Course description: The focus of monetary economics is on the theory and evidence about money and the business cycle, growth, inflation, monetary policy, foreign exchange rates, the yield curve, capital markets and monetary integration. The course starts with a treatment of the modern micro underpinnings of money demand. Subsequently money supply and operating procedures are covered. To introduce the monetary macro issues an eclectic presentation of the major theories and policy issues is given. Special attention is paid to the question of causality and the inference problem. Theories and policy

42

prescriptions are confronted with the data. Special topics are the relation between money and financial markets and the role of money in the international arena. I. Money Demand 1. Theory of fiat money 2. If there was no monetary base 3. European money demand II. Money Supply 1. Operating procedures 2. If there was no monetary base 3. Transmission channels 4. In a monetary union III. Money and the Macro Economy 1. Macro monetary models and causality 2. Intermediate targets 3. Empirical evidence IV. Money and Asset Markets 1. Feedback and feed forward 2. The yield curve 3. Systemic risk, moral hazard and bubbles 4. Financial innovation V. International Money 1. The forex market 2. Adjustment and monetary systems 3. Role of the IMF Literature: Mandatory reading: Walsh, C. E., Monetary theory and policy, Cambridge: MIT Press, 1998; Articles to be announced, a Syllabus will be made available. Examination: term paper and written examination. TI0013 Southeast Asian Economic Policy and Development (course load 80 h.) Lecturer: Prof. H. Hill (Australian National University) Course description: The purpose of this unit is to provide an analytically informed overview of economic development and policy in the Southeast Asian economies since 1970, including a special focus on the region's crisis of 1997-99. The five original ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) member states are the focus of study, but the newer members of mainland Southeast Asia and a potential new entrant (ie, East Timor) will also be examined. The development experience of these economies will also be related to that of other developing regions where relevant. The ASEAN group contains considerable diversity in terms of resource endowments, policy orientations and economic performance, thereby offering a range of case studies for analysis. The principal themes and issues to be explored are the causes and consequences of rapid

43

economic growth until 1997, structural change and changing comparative advantage, the economic implications of growing regionalization and internationalization of the economies, the causes and consequences of the (largely unexpected) crisis of 1997-99, and the dimensions and challenges of social progress and poverty alleviation. Economic theory and descriptive analysis are combined to assess and evaluate the economic performance and policies of these countries. Literature: There is no single textbook for this course. A detailed reading list and collection of key journal articles and book chapters will be provided. Journals to be consulted widely include "ASEAN Economic Bulletin", "Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, and Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies. Two recent edited volumes on the economic crisis will be useful as background reading: R.H. McLeod & R. Garnaut (eds), East Asian in Crisis: From Being a Miracle to Needing One? (Routledge, London, 1998), and H.W. Arndt & H. Hill (eds), Southeast Asia's Economic Crisis: Origins, Lessons, and the Way Forward (Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, Singapore, 1999). The Asian Development Bank's annual Asian Development Outlook (Manila) contains useful summaries and statistics of recent economic developments in the region. Examination: An examination, a research essay, and class participation (weightings to be determined in consultation with the class). Prerequisites: A knowledge of basic economic theory and principles (macroeconomics, microeconomics, international economists), and an interest in the countries. TI0014 Growth and Poverty: the Wealth of Nations (course load 80 h.) Lecturers: Prof.dr. J.W. Gunning (VU), Dr. C.T.M. Elbers (VU) Course description: How effective is economic growth in eliminating poverty? This course covers theory and evidence on the impact of economic growth on poverty in developing countries. Topics include coordination failures, the modern economic theory of poverty traps, the nature and measurement of poverty, cross-country and micro evidence on the poverty impact of growth, evidence from household survey data on the determinants of changes in poverty, and evidence of convergence in micro data sets. The course will involve both lectures and student presentations.

Literature: Reader of journal articles. Examination: Oral exam plus evaluation of student presentations. Prerequisites: Microeconomics core course. TI0016 Synthesis and Comparison in Economic Research (course load 80 h.) Lecturers: Dr. R.J.G.M. Florax (VU). Dr. R. Heijungs (VU/UL), Prof.dr. P. Nijkamp (VU), and Prof.dr. C.A.A.M. Withagen (VU/KUB)

44

Course description: This course seeks to create a better understanding of various techniques that are available to summarise and assess the available empirical evidence in the literature. Those techniques are more robust than the traditional literature review, and are generally referred to with the term ‘meta-analysis’. Meta-analysis has been developed in the experimental sciences, but the course will outline the adjustments that are necessary for a fruitful application of meta-analysis in economics. Moreover, the results of a meta-analysis may be used to obtain an empirical assessment of a site (location and/or time-period) that has not yet been studied. This is what is usually called ‘value transfer’. Its pros and cons and its methodological soundness will be discussed during the course. Finally, the course provides you with up-to-date knowledge of available computer software, and gives you numerous examples of applying the techniques in economics (e.g., on economic growth theory, labour market issues, migration, environmental economic issues, and transport economics). Educational goals: • To better understand the tools that are available to synthesise research results that are

available in the literature. • To acquire knowledge of different procedures and aspects of existing methods for

meta-analysis, the statistical analysis of research results available in the literature. • To attain a critical understanding of value-transfer, the transfer of values or functions

of sites that have been studied to hitherto unstudied sites. • To get a clear understanding of the specific requirements and challenges of applying

meta-analysis to economic data, and being able to illustrate the use of existing procedures in an economic context.

• To have a proper understanding of the use of appropriate software. Duration and overview of topics and lecturers per week: 1) Research synthesis: introduction, motivation, overview (Peter Nijkamp). 2) Basic statistics in meta-analysis (Cees Withagen). 3) Comparing and combining research results (Reinout Heijungs). 4) Methodological issues in applying meta-analysis in economics, and software vailability

(Reinout Heijungs). 5) Analyzing the literature by means of regression techniques (Raymond Florax). 6) Value-transfer: validity and accuracy (Raymond Florax). 7) Research synthesis with qualitative data: current state of affairs and future prospects

(Peter Nijkamp). Literature: The literature will consist of: selected readings and materials specifically developed for this course; selected parts of H. Cooper and L. Hedges (eds.), The Handbook of Research Synthesis, Russell Sage Foundation, New York, 1994; selected parts of L. Hedges and I. Olkin, Statistical Methods for Meta-Analysis, Academic Press, New York, 1985. Examination: The examination will consist of a written paper that is due 4 weeks after the course, and that should comprise an extensive meta-analysis or a value-transfer regarding a specific topic chosen by the student. The paper may be based on a limited set of underlying studies; this is to be decided in close contact with one of the lecturers. Prerequisites: Basic knowledge of statistics and econometrics (at the MA/MSc-level) is required.

45

TI0017 Financial Markets (course load 80 h.) Lecturer: Dr. F. de Jong (UvA) Course description: Financial markets around the world are facing increasing competition. Traditionally, financial markets specialized in domestic securities, but there is a strong trend towards multiple listings, electronic markets and the like. European monetary integration is expected to strengthen these pressures even further. In response to this increasing competition, many exchanges have tried to improve the quality of their market by reorganizing the trading system. In this course the recent academic literature on the organization of financial markets will be discussed with focus on the impact of organizational structure on the quality of a financial market, in particular trading costs and liquidity. The course is a blend of institutional, theoretical and empirical work and also pays some attention to experimental financial markets. Literature: (recommended) Maureen O'Hara, Market Microstructure Theory, 1995, Blackwell Publishers (compulsory), and a reader of articles. Examination: Take home exam plus paper review. Prerequisites: Investment theory on the level of Bodie, Kane and Marcus' Investments and some basic knowledge of statistics and probability. TI0018 Quantitative Financial Risk Management (course load 80 h.) Lecturer: Dr. A. Lucas (VU) Course description: Operating in financial markets entails taking financial risks. In order to manage such risks, one has to design a consistent framework for measuring risk and prompting for specific actions if risk measures indicate situations of stress. This course starts by laying out some of the basic principles of decision taking under uncertainty. In particular, attention is paid to various risk measures, of which value-at-risk (VaR) receives most attention during the course. An in-depth discussion on how to compute VaR for linear and non-linear portfolios is provided. Furthermore, the interaction between VaR limits and financial decisions is dealt with. At the start of the course focus on market risk, i.e., risk due to market movements of interest rates, stock prices, etc. is dealt with. In one of the later lectures specific attention to credit risk and credit risk management and measurement is paid. Credit risk plays an important role in the contemporary professional and academic literature. To conclude the series of lectures, some of the regulatory aspects of risk management for financial institutions will be covered. Literature: Dowd, K. (1997), Beyond value at risk. Wiley; J.P. Morgan (1999), RiskMetrics, Technical manual (www.jpmorgan.com); J.P. Morgan (1999), Credit Metrics, Technical manual (www.jpmorgan.com); Embrechts, P., C. Kluppelberg, and T. Mikosch (1997), Modelling extremal events for insurance and finance, Springer Berlin. Examination: assignments and written exam.

46

Specific remarks: The book of Dowd will be used as a guideline for the material of the course. Some basic knowledge of option theory (no arbitrage principle, risk-neutral pricing, Black-Scholes) is needed. This knowledge can easily be acquired from any major textbook on derivatives, e.g., Hull (2000) "Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives", Prentice Hall. TI0019 Market Microstructure (course load 80 h.) Lecturer: Prof. E. Kandel (Graduate School of Business and Department of Economics, Hebrew University) Course description: This course is intended to familiarize students with the latest theoretical and some empirical research in Market Microstructure. While asset pricing considers the broad relation between expected asset returns and underlying risk factors, the field of Market Microstructure is concerned with the determinants of actual prices, liquidity, and trading costs. These determinants are often specific to a particular market structure. The two traditional structures are either a dealer market centered around multiple market makers competing for order flow through quotes, or an auction market, where orders are routed through a single specialist who is responsible for maintaining a fair and orderly market. However, recently higher proportion of trading takes place in limit-order markets without designated intermediaries. The efficiency of these different trading mechanisms have come under considerable scrutiny. Our time together will be spent examining these issues from the theoretical and empirical perspectives. The reading list contains several papers per session. You are expected to be familiar with the required material in these readings, which will allow us to focus on the intuition and explore the topics further. You will find that the advances in microstructure are often precipitated by access to new data sets or, in some cases, by public policy issues, which lead to development of new theories and their testing. Indeed, the study of microstructure is among the richest in its potential for contributions to public policy and the shaping of future trading systems. Hopefully, it will also continue to be a rich source of doctoral dissertations! The course grade is based solely on a final exam. Literature: (compulsory denoted by * the rest is recommended): * Book: Maureen O’Hara, Market Microstructure, Blackwell, 1994. Inventory: H. Demsetz, 1968, "The Cost of Transacting", Quarterly Journal of Economics, 33-53. * H. Stoll, 1978, "The Supply of Dealer Services in Securities Markets", Journal of Finance, 1133-1151. Ho and Stoll, 1983, "The Dynamics of Dealer Markets Under Competition", Journal of Finance, 38, 1053-1074. * O'Hara and Oldfield, 1986, "The Microeconomics of market Making", Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analyses, December, 361-376. Cohen, Meier, Schwartz, Whitcomb , 1981, "Transaction Cost, Order Placement and Bid Ask Spread", Journal of Political Economy, 89, 287-305.

47

Information: Copeland and Galai, 1983, "Information effects and the Bid-ask spread", Journal of Finance, 1457-1469. * Glosten and Milgrom, 1985, "Bid ask and Transaction Prices in a Specialist market...", Journal of Financial Economics, 71-100. * Easley and O'Hara, 1992, "Time and Process of Security Price Adjustment", Journal of Finance, 577-606. Strategic Models: * Kyle, 1985, "Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading", Econometrica, 1315-1336. * Admati and Pfleiderer, 1988, "A Theory of Intraday Patterns; Volume and Price Variability", Review of Financial Studies, 1, 3-40. * Foster and Viswanathan, 1993, "Variations in Trading Volume, Return Volatility and Trading Cost", Journal of Finance, 187-211. Holden and Subrahmanyam, 1992, "Long Lived Private Information and Imperfect Competition", Journal of Finance, 247-270. Limit vs. market Orders; Discreetness; Competition for Order Flow: Handa, P. and Schwartz, R., 1996, "Limit Order Trading", Journal of Finance, 1835-1861. * D. Seppi, 1998, "Limit Order Market with Strategic Specialist", RFS. Eechoudt and Roger, 1998, "Risk aversion and the bid-ask spread", working paper. * Kandel and Marx, "Nasdaq Structure and Spread Patterns", Journal of Financial Economics, July 1997. Kandel and Marx, "Payment for Order Flow on Nasdaq", Journal of Finance, Feb 1999. * Christie and Schultz, 1994, "Why do Nasdaq Market Makers Avoid Odd Eights Quotes", Journal of Finance, December. * Foucault, Kadan and Kandel, 2000, "Market for Liquidity", working paper. Market performance and its measures - empirical evidence: * Biais, Hillion and Spatt, 1997, "Paris Bourse", Journal of Finance. * Huang and Stoll, 1997, "The Components of the Bid Ask Spread: A General Approach", Review of Financial Studies, Winter 1997. Hollifield, Miller, and Sandas, 1998, "An Empirical Analyses of A Pure Limit Order Market", working paper. * Barclay et al, 1999, "The Effect of the Order Handling Rules on the Trading Cost on Nasdaq", Journal of Finance, February. * Benston, Irvine and Kandel, 2000, "Liquidity Beyond the Inside Spread", working paper. Examination: Participation in the class, and a Referee report on a paper of my choice. Prerequisites: Finance and Microeconomics on the MA level. TI0021 Modern Macro Labour Economics (course load 80 h.) Lecturers: Prof. J.W. Albrecht, Prof. S.B. Vroman (Georgetown University) Course description: This course provides an in-depth analysis of search, matching and related models of the labour market. These models are designed to explain the existence

48

of unemployment and wage dispersion across similar workers. Several policy issues can be addressed using these models, for example, the design of unemployment insurance systems, the impact of hiring and firing costs, etc. The course will cover both theoretical and empirical literature and is intended for all PhD students interested in doing research in labour economics. Provisional course outline and literature: Week 1: Introduction Some facts about unemployment, vacancies, and wages Introduction to search and matching (Literature to be supplied later) Weeks 2 and 3: Search/Wage-Posting Models Albrecht and Axell, “An Equilibrium Model of Search Unemployment,” JPE, 1984. Burdett and Mortensen, “Wage Differentials, Employer Size, and Unemployment,” IER, 1998. Albrecht and Vroman, “Wage Dispersion in a Job-Search Model with Time-Varying Unemployment Benefits,” mimeo 2000. Bontemps, Robin, and van den Berg, “An Equilibrium Job Search Model with Search on the Job and Heterogeneous Workers and Firms,” IER, 1999.

Weeks 4 and 5: Matching Models Pissarides, Equilibrium Unemployment Theory, 2000, Chapters 1 and 2. Mortensen and Pissarides, “Job Creation and Job Destruction in the Theory of Unemployment,” REStud, 1994. Albrecht and Vroman, “A Matching Model with Endogenous Skill Requirements,” 2000, mimeo. Acemoglu and Shimer, “Efficient Wage Dispersion,” JPE 1999. Hosios, “On the Efficiency of Matching and Related Models of Search and Unemployment,”REStud, 1990. Weeks 6 and 7: Other Related Models Lucas and Prescott, “Equilibrium Search and Unemployment,” JET 1974. Moen, “Competitive Search Equilibrium,” JPE, 1997. Albrecht and Vroman, “Equilibrium in a Model with Moral Hazard and Adverse Selection,” IER 1998. Shimer and Smith, “Assortative Matching and Search,” Econometrica, 2000. Examination: The student has to write a short paper (which may be linked to their own research) which will be graded by one of the professors. TI0022 Economic Theory of Political Decision-making (course load 80 h.) Lecturers: Dr. O.H. Swank (EUR), Prof.dr. F.A.A.M. van Winden (CREED/UvA) Course description: Observed fiscal policy varies greatly across time and countries. How can we explain this variation across time and countries. This course surveys the recent literature that has tried to answer this question.

49

Literature: Persson, T. and G. Tabellini (1999), "Political Economics and Public Finance", NBER working paper series, nr. 7097. Lupia, A., and M. McCubbins (1994), "Learning from Oversight: Fire Alarms and Police Patrols Reconstructed", Journal of Law, Economics and Organization, V10, 96-125. Potters, J. and F. van Winden (1992), "Lobbying and Asymmetric Information", Public Choice, 74, 269-282. Lohmann, S. (1993), "A Signaling Model of Information and Manipulative Political Action", American Political Science Review, 87, 319-333. Swank, O., W. Letterie and H. van Dalen (1999), "A Theory of Policy Advice", The Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization, 15,3, 602-614. TI0024 Evolutionary Game Theory (course load 80 h.) Lecturer: Prof.dr.ir. G. van der Laan (VU) Course description: Neoclassical economics assumes that people are highly rational and can reason their way through the most complex economic problems. However, in real world, people have a limited understanding of their environment, are sometimes shortsighted and do not act rationally. In the book the author shows how the cumulative experiences of many of such individuals coalesce over time into customs, norms and institutions that govern economic and social life. A theory is developed that predicts how such institutions evolve, using new results from evolutionary game theory and the theory of stochastic dynamic systems. Also a variety of examples is presented. Course aim: To learn about the basic techniques of evolutionary game theory and its applications. Literature: H. Peyton Young, Individual Strategy and Social Structure (Princeton University Press, 1998) and some articles. Examination: A combination of exam questions and a written report. Prerequisites: At least two years of study in Mathematics or Econometrics. TI0025 Methodological Issues in Economic Research (course load 80 h.) Lecturers: Prof.dr. M. Blaug (UvA), Dr.ir. M.J. Boumans (UvA) Course description: What are the foundations of economic theory? How do economists explain economic phenomena? How are economic models assessed? These are the questions indicating the subject of the philosophy and methodology of economics. This course deals with some main current discussions in this field. The emphasis is on problems and practice of economics as a science. Topics include: explanation, measurement, testing, and modelling. These topics will be discussed from current perspectives in the philosophy and methodology of economics. Literature: Reader.

50

Examination: Active participation in the course; an essay. TI0026 Behavioral Economics (course load 80 h.) Lecturers: Prof. J.L. Knetsch (Simon Fraser University), Dr. G. Antonides (EUR) Course description: Behavioural economics is a growing research field in countries throughout the world. It attracts scientists "..... who doubt the merit of neoclassical economics, those who believe it is a powerful analytic tool, those who fall between these poles, and those who possess a deep and abiding interest in how people behave" (cited from the newsletter of the Society for the Advancement of Behavioural Economics). Behavioural economics as a discipline is open to psychological insights in economic behaviour, either to be obtained from theoretical or empirical work, and findings are reported in a wide array of leading professional journals. In the field course, the research approach of behavioural economics will be shown. An outline of the field course is given below. 1. Introduction and overview of research methods and problems dealt with in behavioural

economics and economic psychology, including economic anomalies, (ir)rational models, economic utility, intertemporal choice and well-being. The endowment effect, or differences in valuations of gains and losses, will be discussed to illustrate the methods and nature of behavioural findings.

2. Implications of gain/loss disparities for economics and policy design, e.g. remedies for harms, Coase theorem, Pareto efficiency, negotiation and conflict resolution, redistribution policies, and regulatory reform.

3. Fairness and other motives in economic behaviour. Results from experiments. Economic, psychological and moral values. Contingent valuation methods.

4. Economic perceptions and behavioural decision-making. Perceptual processes and perceptual systems, information integration, satisficing and heuristics, equity, attribution. Consumers and business. Examples from income evaluation, consumer and business decision-making.

5. Bargaining and negotiations. Models for two parties and models for behaviour on a market. Examples from households, the housing market, and the second-hand market.

Literature: Reader. Examination: Assignments and a written exam. TI0027 Health Economics (course load 80 h.) Lecturers: Prof.Dr. E. van Doorslaer (coordinator), Prof.Dr. W. van de Ven, Prof.Dr. F. Rutten, Dr. E. Schut and Dr. H. Bleichrodt (all health economists, and staff members of the Department of Health Policy and Management, EUR) Course description: This course aims at providing a general introduction to the field of health economics for economists. It is intended for PhD candidates with an interest in the economics of the health care sector. It covers a selected but wide range of topics in the following lectures:

51

Markets and market failures in health care (E. Schut); Health insurance (W. van de Ven); Risk adjustment (W. van de Ven ); Equity in health and health care (E. van Doorslaer:) Economic evaluation of health care (F. Rutten); Valuation of health benefits (H. Bleichrodt); Econometric model of health care sector supply (CPB staff member). Literature: The general level of the course will be that of the (brand new) North-Holland Handbook of Health Economics (forthcoming in 2000), though the reader will also include other references. Examination: Written exam. Prerequisites: Introduction to microeconomics. TI0028 Writing and Presentations in English (course load 40 h.) Lecturers: British Language Training Centre Course description: This course consists of 8 lessons of 3 hours each. In each lesson, time is given over to reviewing writing skills, reviewing the researchers' own work, presenting new skills in writing, and allowing time for the researchers to present their current research information to each other in a semi-formal context. The teaching method is interactive. Literature: Advanced Grammar in Use, by Martin Hewings. Pub. Cambridge University Press. TI0029 Applied Research in Action (course load 80 h.) Lecturers: Prof.dr. J. Veenman (EUR) Course description: This is a course on methodology of empirical research. The course starts with a general lecture on the theory of science. During the next lectures, students can choose from different subjects, such as survey research, the quality of quantitative data, qualitative research methods, case studies and evaluation research. During these lectures time is reserved to discuss practical matters which Ph.D. students have met or will probably meet in their own research. Literature: (recommended) Babbie, E., (1998), The practice of social research, Wadsworth Publishing Company, Belmont, CA, (eighth edition or later edition). Examination: Exercises. Specific remarks: A reflection is necessary on practical research problems in Ph.D.'s own research. TI0031 Learning in Games (course load 80 h.) Lecturer: Prof. F. Vega-Redondo (Universidad de Alicante)

52

Course description: The hypothesis of bounded rationality (in different versions and to different degrees) underlies the alternative models of learning studied in this course. Thus, naturally, the different models to be considered must be highly dependent on the specific bounds contemplated on players' sophistication (or "rationality"). Indeed, this very same idea will help us organize the structure of the course, where our discussion of alternative models will be arranged along a hierarchical sophistication ladder. Along this ladder, players' learning will be allowed to rely on a progressively more demanding level of "reasoning" about the underlying game. Thus, to start, we shall formulate models of learning and bounded rationality that approach the phenomenon at the starkest (i.e. least sophisticated) level. These are the so-called REINFORCEMENT models where players are taken to behave quite primitively, simply reacting to positive or negative stimuli in a "Pavlovian-like manner". Subsequently, the analysis turns to models where players are postulated to behave in a substantially richer manner, managing to entertain expectations on future play at every round and reacting optimally to these. Within such class of models, different degrees of sophistication are again possible. They range from players who either IMITATE, to more sophisticated ones who BEST-RESPOND to some static expectations on the opponents' play, to agents who can learn from all past history (e.g. so-called FICTITIOUS PLAY) or even those who can fully comprehend their environment in a genuinely dynamic fashion (e.g. so-called RATIONAL LEARNING). For each of these alternative contexts, our primary aim will be to understand the dynamic implications of learning for simple interesting games. In particular, our concern will be to identify alternative classes of such games in which the corresponding learning processes bring about long-run convergence to Nash equilibrium. Literature: “Economics and the Theory of Games" which will be published next year by Cambridge University Press. Examination: Assignments. Specific remarks: Basic knowledge of Game Theory will be useful. TI0032 Evolutionary Economics and Management (course load 80 h.) Lecturer: Prof.dr. J.C.J.M. van den Bergh, Dr. M.A. Janssen (VU) Course description: The last two decades have shown an increased use of evolutionary approaches in economics. The seminal book of Nelson and Winter (1982) can be considered as the beginning of a revival of evolutionary economics. Initially, attention was focused on the behavior of firms in relation to process and product innovation. Nowadays, evolutionary economics is applied to almost every branch of economics, such as technological change, economic growth and development, international trade, market processes, structural change, spatial allocation of activities, environmental economics, and policy and management. Various types of theories and methods are being used for this purpose, including evolutionary game theory, stochastic modelling, evolutionary algorithms, population ecology, multi-agent modelling, self-organisation theories, co- evolutionary theory, punctuated equilibrium theory, and group selection theories.

53

This course presents an overview of the state of the art of evolutionary economics and modelling, with some applications to spatial and environmental economics. The course includes model exercises on the computer to allow students to explore evolutionary theories and applications of these in an active way. The course will be of interest to students from economics, business management, econometrics, and environmental sciences (undergraduate and Ph.D. students; foreign students). A preliminary outline of the course is presented below. It is based on a meeting of 2 hours per week for a period of thirteen weeks. Lecturers are indicated in between brackets: 1. Evolutionary theory and biology (Van den Bergh) 2. History of evolutionary economics (Van den Bergh) 3. Schumpeterian entrepeneurs and technology management (Van den Bergh) 4. Evolutionary game theory (Van der Laan) 5. Evolutionary computation (Eiben) 6. Sugarscape: social science frorn the bottom up (Van den Bergh/Eiben) 7. Technology, innovation and diffusion at a global scale (Janssen) 8. E-commerce and lock-in dynamics (Janssen) 9. Consumer behaviour and marketing (Jager/Janssen) 10. Synergetics, chaos, and neural networks, with applications to transport and regiona1

economics (Nijkamp) 11. Environmenta1 economics and management (Van den Bergh) 12. Resilience and ecosystem management (Janssen) 13. Management of complex systems (Janssen/Van den Bergh) Literature: A reader will be compiled drawing upon the publications below. 1. Evolutionary theory and biology Hodgson, G.M. (1993), Economics and Evolution: Bringing Life back into Economics, Univ. of Michigan Press, Ann Arbor . Nelson, R.R. (1995), Recent evolutionary theorizing about economic change, Journal of Economic Literature 33: 48-90. 2. History of evolutionary economics Hodgson, G.M. (1993), Economics and Evolution: Bringing Life back into Economics, Univ. of Michigan Press, Ann Arbor. Nelson, R.R., and S.G. Winter (1982) An Evolutionary Theory of Economic Change, Harvard University Press, Cambridge. Witt, U. (ed.) (1993), Evolutionary Economics, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, UK and Brookfield, USA. 3. Schumpeterian entrepeneurs and technology management Dosi, G., C. Freeman, R. Nelson, G. Silverberg and L. Soete (eds.), 1988), Technical Change and Economic Theory, Pinter Publishers, London. 4. Evolutionary game theory G. van der Laan and A.F. Tieman (1998), Evolutionary game theory and the modelling of economic behavior, De Economist,146: 59-89. Weibull, J.W., (1995), Evolutionary Game Theory, MIT Press, Cambridge, MA.

54

5. Evolutionary computation Th. Bäck (1996), Evolutionary Algorithms in Theory and Practice: Evolution Strategies, Evolutionary Programming, Genetic Algorithms, Oxford University Press. 6. Sugarscape: social science from the bottom up Epstein, J.M. and R. Axtell (1996), Growing Artificial Societies: Social Science from the Bottom Up, Brookings Press and MIT Press. 7. Technology, innovation and diffusion at a global scale Grübler, A. (1998), Technology and Global Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK. 8. E-commerce and lock-in dynamics Shapiro, C. and H.R. Varian (1998), Information Rules – A Strategic Guide to the Network Economy, Harvard Business School Press. 9. Consumer behaviour and marketing Jager, W. (2000), Modelling Consumer Behaviour, PhD thesis, University of Groningen. 10. Firm location and transport Nijkamp, P. and A. Reggiani (1998) The Economics of Complex Spatial Systems, Elsevier, Amsterdam. 11. Environmental economics and management Gowdy, J. (1994), Coevolutionary Economics: The Economy, Society and the Environment, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht. Munro, A. (1997). Economics and biological evolution. Environmental and Resource Economics 9: 429-449. Van den Bergh, J.C.J.M., and J. Gowdy (1998). Evolutionary theories in environmental and resource economics: approaches and applications. Forthcoming in Environmental and Resource Economics. 12. Resilience and ecosystem management Gunderson, L. and C.S. Holling (eds.) (2000) Theories for Sustainable Futures -Understanding and Managing for Resilience in Human-Ecological Systems, Island Press. 13. Management of complex systems Dörner, D. (1996), The logic of Failure – Recognizing and Avoiding Error in Complex Situation, Perseus Books: Reading, MA, USA. TI0033 Corporate Finance Theory (course load 80 h.) Lecturer: Dr. R. Bachmann (UvA) Course description: This course focuses on the application of information economics to corporate finance. The course begins with a review of essential game theoretic concepts (Bayesian equilibrium and refinements). The main part of the course is concerned with how applied concepts and modeling techniques (self-selection, signaling, informational externalities and cascades, agency problems, and dynamic games and reputation, etc.) can be used to solve problems in corporate finance.

55

Topics covered will include capital structure choice, payout policy, initial public offerings, and takeovers. Literature: Selected articles. Students with a strong interest in the subject may want to consider Fudenberg, D. and J. Tirole. Game Theory. Cambridge: MIT Press, 1995 as (technical) background reading. Examination: Weekly assignments, plus a critical paper review (or an own paper). Specific remarks: Prior knowledge of microeconomics and game theory is a prerequisite. TI0034 Missing Data and Causal Inference (course load 80 h.) Lecturer: Prof. G. Ridder (University of Southern California) Course description: The course is highly eclectic. No attempt to cover the whole field is made. Some work is still in progress. Lecture 1: Overview Lecture notes and Angrist, Imbens, Rubin, "Identification ofCausal Effects Using Instrumental Variables", JASA, 1996, 91- 444-455 . Vytlacil, "Independence, Monotonocity and Latent Index Models", Working Paper, 2000. Heckman, Tobias, Vytlacil, "Simple Estimators for Treatment Parameters in a Latent Variable Framework with an Application to Estimating Retums to Schooling", NBER Working paper, 2000. Rosenbaum and Rubin, "The Central Role of the Propensity Score in Observational Studies for Causal Effects", Biometrika, 1983, 70, 41-55 Lecture 2: Ignorable missing data: efficient semi-parametric estimation This tums out to be an application of semi-parametric GMM. I will main1y discuss that method (based on Newey (1994)) and develop the theory for a special case. I will go through the proof that the estimator is asymptotically linear. Newey, "The asymptotic variance of semi-parametric estimators", Econometrica, 1994, 62, 1349- 1382. Hirano, Imbens and Ridder, "Efficient Estimation of Average Treatment Effects using the Estimated Propensity Score", 2000, NBER working paper. Lecture 3: Non-ignorable missing data: Selective attrition Hausman, Wise, " Attrition Bias in Experimental and Panel Data: The Gary Income Maintenance Experiment," Econometrica, 1979, 47, 455-473. Hirano, Imbens, Ridder, Rubin, "Combining Panel Data Sets with Attrition and Refreshment Samples", NBER Working Paper, 2000. Ridder, Woutersen, "Method of Moments Estimation of Mixed Proportional Hazard Models with Exogenous and Endogenous Regressors”, Working Paper, 2001. Lecture 4 : Data combination Moffit, Ridder, “The Econometrics of Data Combination”, Working Paper, 2001.

56

APPENDIX 3: LECTURERS TINBERGEN INSTITUTE 2000-2001 Dr. R. Alessie (VU) Dr. G. Antonides (EUR) Dr. R. Bachmann (UvA) Prof.dr. G.J. van den Berg (VU) Prof.dr. J.C.J.M. van den Bergh (VU) Prof. M. Blaug (UvA) Dr.ir. M.J. Boumans (UvA) Dr. J. Brinkhuis (EUR) Dr. D.J.C. van Dijk (EUR) Prof.dr. H.K. van Dijk (EUR) Dr. C.T.M. Elbers (VU) Prof.dr. C. van Ewijk (CPB/UvA) Dr. R.J.G.M. Florax (VU) Prof.dr. J.F. Francois (EUR) Prof.dr. Ph.H.B.F. Franses (EUR) Prof.dr. J.W. Gunning (VU) Dr. C. Heij (EUR) Dr. R. Heijungs (VU) Dr. M.A. Janssen (VU) Prof.dr. M.C.W. Janssen (EUR) Dr. F. de Jong (UvA) Prof.dr.ir. G. van der Laan (VU) Prof.dr. M. Lindeboom (TI/VU) Dr. A. Lucas (VU) Dr. C. van Marrewijk (EUR) Prof.dr. S. Martin (UvA) Dr. J.L. Moraga (TI/EUR) Prof.dr. P. Nijkamp (VU) Dr. J.C.M. van Ophem (UvA) Prof.dr. O.H. Swank (EUR) Prof.dr. C.N. Teulings (TI/EUR) Prof.dr. J. Veenman (EUR) Prof.dr. H. Verbruggen (VU) Prof.dr. C.G. de Vries (EUR) Prof.dr. F.A.A.M. van Winden (CREED/UvA) Prof.dr. C. Withagen (VU/KUB) Guest lecturers Prof.dr. J.W. Albrecht (Georgetown University) Dr. H. Bleichrodt (Department of Health Policy and Management, EUR) Prof.dr. E. van Doorslaer (Department of Health Policy and Management, EUR) Prof. H. Hill (Australian National University) Prof. E. Kandel (Hebrew University) Prof. J.L. Knetsch (Simon Fraser University) Prof. P. Legros (ECARES/ULB) Prof. G. Ridder (University of Southern California) Prof.dr. F. Rutten (Department of Health Policy and Management, EUR)

57

Dr. E. Schut (Department of Health Policy and Management, EUR) Prof. F. Vega-Redondo (Universidad de Alicante) Prof.dr. W. van de Ven (Department of Health Policy and Management, EUR) Prof. S.B. Vroman (Georgetown University)

58

APPENDIX 4: PH.D. LUNCHSEMINARS TINBERGEN INSTITUTE AMSTERDAM Organization: Ibolya Schindele, Joelle Noailly, Mauro Mastrogiacomo January 16 Jochen Kluve (University of Heidelberg), Can training and financial incentives combat

European unemployment? Evidence from recent evaluation studies 29 Bea Canto (LSE, UK), Stock market spillovers and macroeconomic announcement; a high

frequency data exercise

February 20 Arno van der Vlist, VU, Residential mobility and job mobility in a competing risk framework March 6 Mauro Mastrogiacomo, VU (discussant: Bas van der Klaauw), Retirement behaviour of Dutch

elderly households 13 Tesfaye Tiko (University of Utrecht), Wage compression, employment and productivity 20 Jasper Dalhuisen, VU (discussant: Dr. A. Leen (WU/RL)), Economic aspects of sustainable

water use, evidence from a horizontal comparison of European cities 27 Gerwin Griffioen, UvA (discussant: Sebastiano Manzan), Success and failure of technical

trading strategies in the Cocoa futures markets April 17 Paul Frijters, VU (discussant: Aico van Vuuren), Choosing hopeless to become May 1 Martijn van der Heide, VU (discussant: Jasper Dalhuisen), Modelling biodiversity protection

within an integrated ecological-economic framework 8 Tiemen Woutersen (University of Western Ontario), Using the integrated hazard to correct for

selective compliance 15 Dawit Zerom, UvA, On kernel-based nonparametric conditional quantile estimators: theory and

practice 22 Pedro Cardoso, UvA, Should I pay for you or for myself? – The optimal level and composition 29 Govert Bijwaard, EUR (discussant: Bas van der Klaauw), Instrumental variable estimation of the

generalized accelerated failure time model June 5 Jacob de Vries, VU, Spatial equilibrium of supply and demand as a base for Alonso’s theory of

movements 12 Rene van der Kruk, VU (discussant: Jasper Dalhuisen), Economic impacts of Dutch restrictive

wetland use policies: a spatial econometric analysis of the housing market 19 Coen Teulings, EUR/TI, Education and inequality October 2 Marcel Theebe, UvA, Accommodation of Asylum seekers around your own home 9 Jasper Dalhuisen, VU (discussant: Martijn van der Heide), Lessons for sustainable water

management policies; a case on Amsterdam 16 Dawit Zerom, UvA, A conditional density estimator 30 Aljaz Ule, UvA (discussant: Matthijs van Veelen), Evolution of cooperation in social networks November 13 Marco van Gelderen, VU, Learning opportunities and learning behaviors as keys to

59

entrepreneurial success 20 Aljaz Ule, UvA, Evolution of cooperation in social networks 27 Sebastiano Manzan, UvA, Model selection for nonlinear time series December 4 Reza Anglingkusumo, VU (discussant: Neeltje van Horen), Monetary policy in post crisis

Indonesia: Towards achieving price 18 Matthijs van Veelen, VU (discussant: Joep Sonnemans), How we People became so fair

60

TINBERGEN INSTITUTE ROTTERDAM Organization: Patrick Houweling, Erjen van Nierop, Grzegorz Kula and Rutger van Oest February 28 Maarten Lindeboom, Doctor or drop-out (Part II) March 7 Pieter van Foreest, The Chicago view on the equity premium and market efficiency 14 Charles Bos, Marginal likelihood and model probabilities 21 Jeab Cumperayot, The transmission of extremal events in foreign exchange markets

from monetary fundamentals to currencies 28 Rutger van Oest, Polar sampling: a new class of sampling algorithms April 4 Rob van der Noll, E-commerce and channel substitution for differentiated products 11 Joulia Ossokina, Why do policy makers remain ignorant? 18 Lucio Vinhas de Souza, The political business cycles of EU accession countries 25 Dennis Huisman, A dynamic approach to vehicle scheduling May 2 Mehari Mekonnen Akalu, Measuring the strength of value drivers 9 Paolo Russo, The bigger the worse? Asymmetric information, spatial displacement

and sustainable heritage tourism (joint work with Silvia Caserta) 16 Patrick Meersmans, Scheduling problems at automated container terminals 23 Richard Kleijn, Bayesian testing in cointegration models using the Jeffreys' Prior

September 19 Coen Teulings, Should education be subsidized

October 3 Yulia Veld-Merkoulova, Do divestitures creates value? The case for European spin-

offs 10 Ewa Mendys, The price of a price: on the crowding out of social norms 17 Andrea Galeotti, Electoral cycles: Do they really fit the data? 24 Romdej Phisalaphong, The impact of the single european market on the foreign direct

investment: how the characteristics of firms influence the impact and the response 31 Klaas Beniers, Sequential advocacy

November 7 Silvia Caserta, Auctions with a large number of bidders 14 Phongthorn Wrasai, The model of collective decision making 21 Felix Eschenbach, Fiscal risks of asset price cycles December 5 Klaas Staal, Incentives for unification and public good provision 12 Martijn van der Voort, Modular pricing of vanilla options

61

APPENDIX 5: PRESENTATIONS BY TI-STUDENTS AT NAKE DAY, 12 OCTOBER, DUTCH CENTRAL BANK, AMSTERDAM Pensions and Retirement • Grzegorz Kula (TI/EUR), Optimal retirement decision • Mauro Mastrogiacomo (TI/VU), Retirement behaviour of Dutch households The Business Cycle, PPP and Monte Carlo Simulation • Rutger van Oest (TI/EUR), Adaptive polar sampling • Richard Kleijn (TI/EUR), A Bayesian analysis of purchasing power parity using an unobserved

components model Transport Economics • Daniel van Vuuren (TI/VU), Macro-elasticities for fule demand in the Netherlands. Econometrics • Maurice Bun (TI/UvA), The importance of dynamics in panel gravity models of trade Economic Policy • Katrin Oltmer (TI/VU), The impact of agricultural income policy on land prices: A quantitative

analysis of the literature Pricing • Jasper Dalhuisen (TI/VU), Price and income elasticities of residential water demand Competition • Klaas Beniers (TI/EUR), Sequential advocacy • Rob van der Noll (TI/EUR), Electronic commerce and retail channel substitution for inspection

goods Public Choice • Andrea Galeotti (TI/EUR), Electoral cycles: Do they really fit the data? Social Interaction • Ewa Mendys (TI/EUR), The price of a price: On the crowding out of social norms Taxation • Bas Jacobs (TI/UvA), Redistribution and education subsidies The Dutch Economy • Robert Mosch (TI/VU), The Dutch miracle: Institutions, networks and trust Environmental Economics • Ioulia Ossokina (TI/EUR), Learning through experimentation in environmental regulation:

political economy issues Financial Markets and Risk • Arjen Siegmann (TI/VU), Optimal non-linear pay-offs in a mean-downside risk model

62

APPENDIX 6: DETAILED INFORMATION NETWORKS 1. NAKEa) Number of

participants Of whom TI

Applied general equilibrium theory (theor.) 16 9 Recent developments inon-linear time series analysis 19 6 Adverse selection: recent developments 12 4 Econometrics of panel data 30 12 Behavioural modelling of government decision making 6 3 Applied general equilibrium theory (applied) 13 7 Capital market imperfections, investment and monetary policy 13 3 New institutional economics 20 7 Topics in oligopoly theory 7 1 Experimental economics and the design of mechanism 9 3 Environmental problems and policy 10 2 Social economics: heterodox approaches to economic theory

9 1

Topics in applied microeconomics 14 5 The economics of household behaviour 17 2 Optimisation methods in econometrics 11 2 General equilibrium theory 3 - Growth and environment 17 4 Nonlinear time series models in empirical finance 12 3 Theory of incomplete markets 10 4 Testing the validity of asset pricing models with applications to stock picking and performance measurement

17 4

Topics in corporate finance 9 1 ____ __ 274 83 _______________ a) The course load of NAKE-courses is 80 or 160 hours NAKE Workshops Maastricht University 11 - 15 December 2000: Kaushik Basu (Cornell University), Rationality and Social Norms Guido Imbens (UCLA), Causal Inference and Program Evaluation Gerard Roland (Université Libre de Bruxelles), Transition and Economics Hyun Song Shin (London School of Economics), Financial Crises: Theories and Models Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam 11 - 15 June 2001: Peter Howitt (Brown University), Innovation-based Growth Theory Ken Judd (Hoover Institution, Stanford University), Numerical Methods for Dynamic Economic Analysis Kai Konrad (Free University of Berlin), Contests: Theory and Applications Preston McAfee (University of Texas at Austin), Pricing

63

2. NOBEM No course information available.

3. LNMBa)

Number of

participants Of whom TI

Spring 2001 Convex analysis for optimization 6 - Game theory 15 1 Randomized algorithms and stochastic programming

27 2

Fall 2001 Applications of game theory 13 4 Stochastic operations research 1 25 2 Combinatorial optimization 1 34 2 __ __ 120 11

_______________

a) LNMB discriminates between participants and auditors. For participants the course load is 180 hours; for auditors 40 hours. Both participants and auditors are included in the number of participants.

64

APPENDIX 7: PH.D. THESES Number in the Tinbergen Institute Research Series, alumnus (date of thesis defense), Title of thesis, (supervisor (s)). 239. G. DRAISMA (11-01-2001), Parametric and semi-parametric methods in extreme value

theory (prof.dr. L.F.M. de Haan) 240. I.F.C. MULDER (06-02-2001), Soil degradation in Benin: Farmers' perceptions and

responses (prof.dr. J.W. Gunning) 241. A.W. SALY (05-04-2001), Corporate entrepreneurship. Antecedents and consequences

of entrepreneurship in large established firms (prof.drs. J. Bunt) 242. S. VAN VELZEN (06-02-2001), Supplements to the economics of household behavior

(prof.dr. S.S. Gustafsson) 243. R.A. VAN DER GOOT (19-01-2001), High performance linda using a class library

(prof.dr. A. de Bruin) 244. E. KUIPER (08-02-2001), The most valuable of all Capital. A gender reading of

economic texts (prof.dr. S.S. Gustavsson) 245. P. KLIJNSMIT (01-03-2001), Voluntary corporate governance disclosures; An empirical

investigation of UK practices (prof.dr. Ph. Wallage RA) 246. P.J.G. TANG (29-03-2001), Essays on economic growth and imperfect markets (prof.dr.

C. van Ewijk, dr. F. van der Ploeg) 247. H. HOOGEVEEN (26-04-2001), Risk and insurance in rural Zimbabwe (prof.dr. J.W.

Gunning, prof.dr. P.F. Lanjouw) 248. A.J. VAN DER VLIST (22-05-2001), Residential mobility and commuting (prof.dr. P.

Rietveld, prof.dr. P. Nijkamp) 249. G.E. BIJWAARD (05-06-2001), Rank estimation of duration models (prof.dr. G. Ridder) 251. B.J. VAN PRAAG (06-06-2001), Earnings management; Empirical evidence on value

relevance and income smoothing (prof.dr. M.N. Hoogendoorn, prof.dr. H.P.A.J. Langendijk)

252. E. PEEK (19-06-2001), Discretion in financial reporting and properties of analysts' earnings forecasts (prof.dr. J. Klaassen)

253. N. JONKER (13-06-2001), Job performance and career prospects of auditors (prof.dr. J. Hartog)

254. M.J.G. BUN (26-06-2001), Accurate statistical analysis in dynamic panel data models (prof.dr. Prof.dr. J.F. Kiviet)

255. P.C. VERHOEF (20-09-2001), Analyzing customer relationships: Linking relational constructs and marketing instruments to customer behavior (prof.dr. J.C. Hoekstra, prof.dr P.H.B.F. Franses)

256. C.S. BOS (13-09-2001), Time varying parameter models for inflation and exchange rates (prof.dr. H.K. van Dijk, prof.dr. P.H.B.F. Franses)

257. A. HEYMA (06-09-2001), Dynamic models of labour force retirement; An empirical analysis of early exit in the Netherlands (prof.dr. J.J.M. Teeuwes, prof.dr. M. Lindeboom)

258. S. DEZELAN (28-09-2001), The impact of institutional investors on equity markets and their liquidity (prof.dr. A.W.A. Boot)

259. D.J. DEKKER (24-09-2001), Network perspectives on tasks in account management (prof.dr. P.H.B.F. Franses, prof.dr. F.N. Stokman)

262. D.J. BEZEMER (16-10-2001), Structural change in Central European agriculture. Studies from the Czech and Slovak Republics (prof.dr. M.J. Ellman)

263. D.P.J. BOTMAN (10-10-2001), Globalization, heterogeneity, and imperfect information (prof.dr. H. Jager)

266. R.A.J. BOSMAN (19-12-2001), Emotions and economic behavior. An experimental investigation (prof.dr. F.A.A.M. van Winden)

268. H. VAN DE VELDEN (13-12-2001), An experimental approach to expectation formation in dynamic economic systems (prof.dr. C.H. Hommes)

65

66

APPENDIX 8: STUDENTS WHO JOINED THE INSTITUTE IN 2001 EUR Klaas Beniers, Intrinsic motivation and extrinsic rewards (01-01-2001)

Jan Slijkerman, Rules vs. discretion: capital requirements and economic policy (01-05-2001) Maria Abreu, An intertemporal analysis of growth, trade and human capital formation (01-07-2001) Gerrit Mueller, Wage formation, minimum wages and the optimal institutions for redistribution (01-09-2001) Miguel Portela, Recruitment and pay policies of the firm and wage inequality in the economy (01-09-2001) Stefano Ficco, Internet applications of micro-economics (01-09-2001) Hugo Rojas-Romagosa, Trade and income distribution: the role of market structure and multinationals (01-09-2001) Ward van den Berg, Valuation of acquisitions. Models for private equity and venture capital (01-11-2001)

UvA Emily Gustafsson, The vulnerability of children in Guatemala to risks and shocks (01-09-

2001) Otto van Hemert, Long term investments with a focus on pension funds and especially the dependance on macroeconomic factors (01-08-2001) David Schrager, Waardering van embedded opties in verzekeringsproducten (01-09-2001)

VU Roos Andadari, Technological change on the furniture industry (01-09-2001) Joep Arts, Innovation adoption (01-09-2001) Martijn Brons Transport, environment, meta-analysis (01-08-2001) Jasper Dekkers, Location based services (01-10-2001)

Wendy Janssens, Social capital and community development: The impact of women's collectives in India on social development (01-09-2001) Kai-Ming Lee, Econometric analysis of intra-weekly data using state space methods (01-09-2001) Gert-Jan Linders, Trade in services and economic growth: the role of the ICT sector and trade liberalization (01-05-2001)

Simonetta Longhi, (01-02-2001) Robert van der Maten, New public management and control in government agencies (01-03-2001) Vitaly Pruzhansky, Evolutionary equilibrium selection in signaling games (01-09-2001)

Robert Sparrow, Crisis intervention programs in Indonesia: the effect of price changes on health and education demand (01-06-2001) Carla Sá, The how, where and why of participation in higher education in the Netherlands (01-09-2001) Hari Sunarto, Banking failures / accessability of credit to SME's post financial crises (01-09-2001) M.Phil. students, enrolled in the M.Phil. programme as of September 2001: Sebastian Buhai Jan Willem Burgers Erik Feijen Jasper Menken Lev Ratnovski Ernesto Reuben

67

68

Undergraduates, enrolled in the M.Phil. programme as of September 2001: Jasper Blom (VU) Bas de Jong (EUR) Pepijn Trietsch (UvA) Matthijs Wildenbeest (EUR) Remco Zwinkels (EUR)