Low Carbon Development Case Studies: PAKISTAN

Dr Muhammad Tousif Bhatti

Country Context

Geographical area : 796,096 km2

GDP: 4 per cent (2012) Estimated per capita GDP is around US$2,891. About two-thirds of the population lives in rural areas. Urban population contributes to about three-quarters of GDP and

almost all of the government’s revenue. Agriculture is central to economic growth and development

– 24 per cent of GDP – half the employed labour force – largest source of foreign exchange – feeds the entire population.

Facing an acute energy crisis energy shortages have cost the country up to 4 per cent of GDP over

the past few years.

Energy Situation: Commercial Sources

Energy Situation: Traditional Sources

• Traditional fuels like firewood, dung and crop residues currently contribute a major share of the everyday energy requirements of rural and low-income urban households.

• In rural areas, food is cooked in a traditional cooking stove and biomass fuels are mainly used because of the unavailability of natural gas .

Cooking fuel Urban areas (%) Rural areas (%)

Wood 19.55 68.71

Oil/natural gas 77.84 7.41

Electricity 0.05 0.07

Other* 2.56 23.81

Cooking fuel used in Pakistan.

Source: Bhutto et al, 2011*Other consists of dung cake and any other material used as fuel for cooking other than electricity, gas, oil, wood and charcoal

Energy Situation: Renewable Sources

Technology Units installed

Capacity Houses electrified/ benefited

Micro hydropower (canal fall type) 12 290 kW 2,500PAT (pump as turbine) micro hydropower plant

01 220 kW Commercial

Solar module 01 15 kW 150Solar power backup system 01 03 kW Backup for lighting and

fansBiogas 38 190 m3 38Solar thermal      

Water heater 30 Standard1

30

Solar cooker box type 15 Standard1

15

Solar concentrator/dryer 22 Standard 22

Achievements in renewable energy during 2011-12

Source: Hydrocarbon Development Institute of Pakistan, 2013

Where we are?Electricity access in 2011 – regional aggregates

Region Population without electricity (millions)

Electrification rate (%)

Urban electrification rate (%)

Rural electrification rate (%)

Developing countries 1,257 76.5 90.6 65.1Africa 600 43 65 28Developing Asia 615 83 95 75

India 306 75 94 67China 3 99.8 100.0 99.6Southeast Asia 134 77.6 90.5 67.2Rest of developing Asia 172 61.4 81.9 51.7

Bangladesh 61 60 90 48North Korea 18 26 36 11Mongolia 0 88 98 67Nepal 7 76 97 72Pakistan 56 69 88 57Sri Lanka 3 85 96 84

Latin America 24 95 99 81Middle East 19 91 99 76Transition economies and OECD

1 99.9 100.0 99.7

World 1,258 81.9 93.7 69.0

Source: International Energy Agency, 2013

Where we are?

Region Population relying on traditional use of biomass (millions)

Percentage of population relying on traditional use of biomass

Developing countries

2,642 49.4

Africa 696 67Sub-Saharan

Africa695 79

Nigeria 122 75South Africa 6 13

North Africa 1 1Developing Asia 1,869 51

India 818 66Pakistan 112 63

Indonesia 103 42China 446 33

Latin America 68 15Brazil 12 6

Middle East 9 4World 2,642 38.1

Source: International Energy Agency, 2013

People relying on traditional use of biomass for cooking, 2011

Energy Efficiency

Pakistan

India

Srilanka

Bangladesh

Iran

China

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000

482

614

499

205

2,813

2,029

Energy use in kg of oil equivalent per capita (2011)

Figure 8. Energy efficiency in Pakistan compared with selected countries

• Energy efficiency is a measurable quantity. It is the ratio of energy input into a process to energy or work (electricity, heat, transportation) produced by that process.

• Pakistan is ranked 37th in the world in terms of power consumption in MWh per year

• Pakistan is ranked 45 among the UN member countries for energy efficiency.

• Pakistan’s energy efficiency in 2010 was 203.3 kgoe per $1,000 GDP

• China (264.97), Iran (278.22), Nepal (316), India (184.05), Bangladesh (140.32) and Sri Lanka (103.87).

Energy demand projections by fuel in Pakistan’s energy

  2010 2015 2030

Mtoe Share (%)

Mtoe Share (%) Mtoe Share (%)

Oil 20.69 26.1 32.15 26.8 66.84 18.5

Natural gas 39.99 50.4 52.98 44.1 162.58 45

Coal 7.16 9.0 14.45 12.0 68.65 19

Hydro 11.03 13.9 16.40 13.7 38.93 10.8

Renewable 0.84 1.1 1.60 1.3 9.2 2.5

Nuclear 0.69 0.9 2.23 1.9 15.11 4.2

Total 79.40 100 120.1 100 361.31 100Source: Ministry of Planning Development and Reforms, Government of Pakistan

Projected energy requirement and

energy deficit (2010-2030)

Energy source (Mtoe) 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Oil 4 3 1 1 1Gas 40 36 25 19 20LPG 1 1 1 1 1Coal 2 3 4 6 8Hydel 7 8 15 17 24Renewable and nuclear 1 1 5 8 14Total indigenous supply 55 52 51 52 68Total energy requirements 73 96 131 176 238Energy deficit 18 44 80 124 170Imports for the deficitOil 14 29 46 64 85LNG or gas – 4 18 34 48LPG – 1 2 3 4Coal 4 10 14 23 33

Source: Hagler Bailley Pakistan, 2008

Low Carbon Energy: Potential vs Planning

  2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Wind (grid connected) 12.8 12.8 12.8 12.8 12.8Solar PV (decentralised) 9.9 14.1 19.1 24.5 29.9Solar PV (centralised) 116.2 116.2 116.2 116.2 116.

2Solar thermal (centralised) 22.6 22.6 22.6 22.6 22.6Biomass (field residues) 1.7 2 2.5 3 3.7Biomass (animal waste) 1.6 2.3 2.8 3.4 4.1Biomass (municipal solid waste) 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.9Small hydro 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7Total 167.7 173 179.3 186.1 193.

9Source: Farooq and Kumar, 2013

Estimated electricity capacity from renewable energy sources 2010-2050 (GW)

Plan for promotion of renewable energy in Pakistan’s power sectorSource 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Wind 100 800 2,000 3,500 6,000

Solar 1 100 500 1,000 1,500

Biomass 60 300 500 750 1,000

Small hydro

1 150 500 800 1,200

Total 162 MW 1,350 MW

3,500 MW

6,050 MW

9,700 MWSource: National Electric Power Regulatory Authority

Note: The hydropower potential is 59 GW out of which 11 percent is tapped, 14 % is under construction

Inferences No state wise estimates available for contribution of non-

commercial sources of energy The share of on-grid renewable energy sources (solar, wind, biogas)

is nill at the moment. Off-grid reliance on solar energy is trending but technologies are

imported and costly. The country is heavily depending on high carbon energy sources

(natural gas and imported oil) to meet its energy requirements The demand-supply gap is large; national plans are still focusing on

high carbon resources Huge potential of low carbon energy is identified in the country The national policy to promote renewable energy has not been very

ambicious. A policy shift is needed to emphasize on low carbon energy sources

by removing barriers Solutions lie in developing of indigenous technologies (on-grid and

off-grid) through research and developments and upscaling them

Case Studies-

Domestic Biogas Plants

(household scale) This case study is based on improving the quality of life of rural farmers, particularly women, and through constructing domestic biogas plants at the household level to fulfil the energy demand by reducing the use of subsidised fossil fuels for cooking.

The project was initiated by the Pakistan Biogas Development programme with financial support provided by the Embassy of the Kingdom of the Netherlands (EKN).

The project aims to facilitate the construction of domestic biogas plants at the household level by setting up 14,000 biogas plants in Punjab, out of which 3,500 biogas plants have been installed (Zaidi, 2010).

Potential benefits of domestic biogas plants in Pakistan

Benefit type Potential benefitsEnvironmental 

Reduced deforestation and desertification Controlled GHG emission from livestock and organic

waste disposal Recycled nutrients and restored soil fertility.

Social 

Direct impact through reduced drudgery (time collecting firewood, for example), especially for girls, as well as access to brighter light.

Reduced indoor air pollution.Economic 

By allowing the alternative allocation of time, in particular for female members of the household due to the reduction in burden of collecting firewood.

By providing employment and increasing agriculture yield, improving sanitation and integrated animal husbandry practices.

Health Improvement in health (eg, respiratory and eye diseases, accidental burns) by eliminating indoor pollution and fires.

Case Studies-

Micro hydropower/agro-processing mills (Community

and SME scale) PCRET is playing a major role in promoting renewable energy in Pakistan, especially in development of micro hydropower projects, aiming to electrify remote hilly areas.

Recent example is actuation and installation of 476 micro hydropower plants ranging from 5-50 KW capacity in the northern areas of Pakistan.

This decentralised energy generation has electrified around 56,000 households.

The science is harnessing the flows of natural waterfalls for power production.

The technology used is cross flow (Banki type) turbine, which is a radial flow impulse turbine, was used.

The micro hydel turbines were made by local manufacturers and all other equipment was manufactured locally or by the PCRET.

Potential benefits of micro hydropower Pakistan

The project aims is to reach a total 250,000 rural houses without break of supply.

Helps in economic development of rural areas by providing job opportunities to more than 1,000 local inhabitants.

Hydro is the cheapest among all energy sources, having production costs of PKR 5.0 per kWh of electricity.

Enhance the local manufacturing industry. Promote small-scale industrial activities in rural areas. The micro hydropower projects are environmental friendly and

have no adverse environmental impact such as displacing people, wasting land, waterlogging, deforestation or emission of toxic gases.

Macro level runoff river hydropower projects have very negligible resettlement, land acquisition and environmental impacts.

Case StudiesMacro – grid-connected

hydropower The 84 MW New Bong Escape Hydropower Project is located in Azad Jammu and Kashmir, Pakistan.

This is a run-of-the-river hydropower project and commenced commercial operation on 23 March 2013.

Potential benefits Promote sustainable economic growth Encouraged economic growth by reducing the level of very costly electricity and

compensating incremental demand for power Increased energy security Significant environmental benefits compared to alternative thermal power

options in terms of GHG emissions (estimated reduction of GHG emissions is 218,000 ton CO2 equivalent per year).

Produced about 300 to 500 job opportunities during the construction phase and around 90 job opportunities after operation.

Reduced reliance on imported fuel oil, thereby not impacting the country’s trade and current account deficits.

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