供应链管理策略与方法(ppt 73)中英文版

1

供應鏈管理策略與方法

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AdvancedTEK Company ProfileAdvancedTEK Company Profile

成立於 : Feb. 1998 ( Office Now: Taipei, Hsinchu, Shanghai)資本額：一億兩千萬成員 : 超過一百五十位專業顧問ERP/SCM/EB 專案 : 超過 80 Sites主要成員背景 : 超過 60% 相關碩博士策略夥伴 : PDM: PTC/Windchill

EM:

EB:

CRM:

SCM:

ERP:

授權之訓練中心 :

目前全世界三家獲得 i2 授權之訓練中心之一

S A P

BizTalk, Netfish

3

AdvancedTEK International

STRATEGY CULTURE

VALUEBIZ ARCHITECT

MANAGEMENTORGANIZATION

STRATEGIC PLAN

BIZ PROCESSTATICS

CHANGE

IT ARCHITECTSOLUTION IMPL

TECH DEVELCUSTOMIZATIONLOVALIZATION

SW DEVEL.

Traditional Strategy

Firm

Big 6 (Big 5 + AC)

Local SI & SW House

AdvencedTEK Int’l Corp.

SW Vendor Service Org

AdvancedTEK Market Positioning

4

DesignCollaboration

Collaborative Product Management (PDM)

ProductConfiguration

ManufacturingProcessPlanning

Supply Chain Management (SCM)

Sourcingand

Procurement

Specificationand

Development

Planningand

Execution

Quotingand

Fulfillment

Collaborative Planning (EAI, EHI)

Su

pp

ly C

hain

(SR

M)

Qualification

Sourcing

Procurement

Monitoring

Dem

an

d C

hain

(CR

M)

ProductConfiguration

MarketingForecast

Orderingand

Tracking

OrderService

B-B, Portal, Marketplace

Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP)

E-Logistics

Solution LandscapeSolution Landscape

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Service LandscapeService Landscape

Implementa-tion

Customiza-tion

Integra-tion

Hosting

R&D

Assessment

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鴻海精密京元源興科技英誌英業達環隆電器友通耀文欣興電子奇美仁寶

康柏電腦台積電華宇電腦達碁明碁NEC智源科技震旦行旺詮電子矽成

華泰電子源興科技昆盈致勝中國信託力晶聯發聯電集團漢民漢平

聯友光電友訊台灣應材華新麗華華宇南研半導體研揚華容國喬光電昌益科技Johnsons & Johnsons

Partial Customer ListPartial Customer List

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製造業V.S.

服務業

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我們有供應鏈管理的問題嗎？

9

• 策略 / 創新財 (Strategy/Innovation Gains)

• 技術 / 知識財 (Technology/Knowledge Gains)

• 管理財 (Management Gains)

您靠什麼賺錢您靠什麼賺錢 ??

10

管理目標的改變管理目標的改變

成本品質交期彈性服務創新全球化結果成本品質交期彈性速度創新成本品質交期服務速度成本品質彈性服務成本交期彈性品質交期成本品質成本

顧客迫使製造商／供應商生產／供應多樣、大量且低成本的一般化商品(Commodity)

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商品一般化（商品一般化（ CommoditizationCommoditization ）為必然趨勢）為必然趨勢Globally the commoditization of products, sectors and markets is accelerating. Differentiation, innovation and cost leadership are crucial.

e .g .T o ile tr ie s

e .g .P h a rm aD ru g s

e .g .P e tro l

e .g .C a rs

2 3

41

L o w T ech C o n su m erP ro d u c ts

B lu e S k y P o in eerP ro d u c ts

C o m m o d ity P ro d u c ts M a tu re Im ita tiveP ro d u c ts

C o stu m er re sp o n s iv eH ig h M arg in

M ark e t d o m in an ceH ig h m arg in

M ass m ark e tL o w m arg in

M ass m ark e tL o w m arg in

H ig h

L o w

L o w L ev e l o f F u n ctio n a lity P ro v id ed to C u sto m ers H ig h

A n tic ip a tedP r ice P o in tA ch iev a b le

From ：” Transform Your Supply Chain - Releasing Value in Business”, Jon Hughes, Mark Ralf, Et Bill Michels

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大量客製化之效應大量客製化之效應

過去目前／未來

• 階層式架構(推式) ( Hierarchy ( Push ) )

• 重疊之網路架構(推&拉) (Network ( Push & Pull ))

• 自己自足(Self Sufficiency) • 相互依存(Interdependencies)

• 只有到緊要關頭才考慮找合作對象(Partner as a Last Resort)

• 積極找尋長期合作夥伴(Long-term Partner Opportunistically)

• 產品導向(Products Oriented) • 核心競爭力導向( Core

Competencies )

• 靜態、有效率之績效指標(Static, Efficient Goals)

• 動態指標(Dynamic Goals)

• 強調競爭(Competition) • 強調綜效/同步化(Synergy /

Synchronization)

• 公司與公司之競爭(Company v.s. Company)

• 供應鏈與供應鏈的陣仗(Supply Chain v.s. Supply Chain)

• 實體中介体系(Inter mediary) • 資訊中介体系(Infor mediary) )

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過去 ( 推／ Push ) 局部最佳化 (Local Optimization)

研發　業務 /行銷　　採購　　　生產 /製造　配送 /服務　財務(R&D) (Sales/Marketing) (Procurement) (Production) (Distribution) (Finance) & Service現在 ( 推 & 拉／ Push & Pull)整合且同步化的鏈（ Integrated & Synchronized Chai

n ）

產銷模式變遷產銷模式變遷 ( I )( I )

研發　業務 /行銷　　採購　　　生產 /製造　配送 /服務　財務(R&D) (Sales/Marketing) (Procurement) (Production) (Distribution) (Finance) & Service

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供應流（ Supply Flow ）

產銷模式變遷產銷模式變遷 ( II )( II )

需求流（ Demand Flow ）

JIT and Quality Material Flow

供應商 (Supplier) 配銷商 ( Distribution) 零售商 (Retailer) 顧客 (Customer)

Qn-time, Accurate and Paperless Information Flow

過　去

現在

供應商 (Supplier) 配銷商 ( Distribution) 零售商 (Retailer) 顧客 (Customer)

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產銷模式變遷（Ⅲ）產銷模式變遷（Ⅲ）

••Emphasize rigour and tough barganing.

供應商顧客

•過去：開放競爭（ Open Competition ）

•期望：從供應商上游到顧客下游的整合（ From Suppliers’

Suppliers to Customers’ Customers ）

•• Link up all the players in a horizontal supply chain.•• Emphasize seamless delivery, optimization and integration.

•許多產業的現況（ Dominate or Die ）

上游下游

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產業未來趨勢(In d u s tria l T ren d )

知識工作者是最大資產(K n o w led g e W o rk e r # 1

A sse t)

10倍速時代("1 0 X " D ev e lo p m en t /

M fg .)

委外為成長最快速之產業(O u tso u rc in g M an u fac tu re r,

# 1 B o o m in g In d u s try )

彈性資訊管理架構(F lex ib le In fo . M g t.

A rch itec tu re s)

品牌差異性日漸縮小(L ess B ran d

D iffe ren ta tio n )

品質乃基本要件(Q u a lity is th e M u st)

長前置時間短生命週期(L o n g L ead tim e b u t S h o rt

L ife C y c le )

全球化(G lo b a liza tio n )

大量客製化(M ass C u s to m iza tio n )

產業未來趨勢產業未來趨勢

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ee 時代數位經濟的趨勢時代數位經濟的趨勢

一、有形價值一、有形價值無形價值無形價值

二、勞力二、勞力腦力腦力

三、製造三、製造服務服務

四、硬體四、硬體軟體軟體

五、效率五、效率創意創意

六、強、大六、強、大速度速度

七、企業網路化七、企業網路化網路企業化網路企業化

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• 建立技術優勢 (Leading- Edge Technology ／ Innov

ation)

•成為快速跟隨者並建立差異化 ( Quick Follower (T

TX) and Differentiation )

••全球供應鏈管理 ( Global Supply Chain Management)

••著重核心競爭力 ( Focus on Core Competence)

••善用資訊技術

產業對策產業對策

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Retail

Manufacturing

Customers

Distribution

Suppliers

Vendors

Make

Move

Sell

Customers

Generic SCM ModelGeneric SCM Model

From: i2 presentation materials

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Semiconductor SCM ModelSemiconductor SCM Model

WaferMfg.

WaferFabrication

WaferSort

AssemblyPackaging

FinalTest

WaferDevice

ProbedWafer

PackagingDie

TestedIC

ReticleMfg.

Reticles

FablessDesign House

Computer

Communication

Consumer

IntegratedDevice

Manufacturer

- Memory- ChipSet- Graphics- Network- Communication- Gate Array (FPL)- ASIC, ASSP- Power MOSFET- Sound/Music

- CPU- Memory- DSP- Network- Communication- Automotive

ModuleAssembly

MemoryIC

DRAMModuleEquip.

Mfg.

RawWafer

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Massive Lot Tracking InformationMassive Lot Tracking Information

WaferMfg.

UMCTSMC

CSM …

UMCTSMC

CSM …WaferSort

WaferSort

SPILASE

ANAM …

SPILASE

ANAM …

SWCAST…

SWCAST…

WaferDevice

ProbedWafer

PackagingDie

TestedIC

ReticleMfg.

Reticles

FablessDesign House

FablessDesign House

Equip.Mfg.

RawWafer

m x n combinations

EE Supply Chain ModelEE Supply Chain Model

ASIC

PCB

MFG PCBA

PKGMATL

ASSY/PKG FG WHSHIP DELIVER

USA

UK

JPN

TWN

OEM

DIST.

WH

MaterialPlanning

Demand/Distribution

Planning

RegionalDistribution

Center &Sales Channels

HQ &MFG Site

INST TEST INSP

SMT TESTER OPERCapacityPlanning

Mfg Process OverviewMfg Process Overview

Mat’lMfg.

PCBASuppliersProcure

Ship/Deliver

DC/Overseas

Assy/Pkg FG

6,000s 200s 600s 10s

ASIC: 10 wksPCB: 4 wksMajor: 4 wksMinor: 2 wks

7 - 14 Days 2 - 5 Days

6,000s Mat’l

200s PCBA

600s FG

1 - 3 wks

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Logistics Issues-OpportunityLogistics Issues-Opportunity

USA Market

Inventory $1.325 trillion

Distribution $41b

Import/Export $81b

Inventory Carrying costs $256b(excluding distribution)

Some efforts to reduceinventory investment have merely shifted the burden

Assume 40% Savings in inventory carrying costs.

Transportation $400 billion

What a big savings!

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供應鏈管理的定義供應鏈管理的定義

Integrate, Synchronized, Lean, and Responsive Flow of Materials,

Information, Funds, Processes, Services, and Organizations from

Suppliers’ Suppliers to Customers’ Customers.

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存貨

IC設備與零件業 IC製造業電腦周邊業電腦組裝業配銷業

存貨

存貨

存貨

存貨

長鞭效應 (Bullwhip Effect)

Supply Chain CharacteristicsSupply Chain Characteristics

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長鞭效應長鞭效應 (Bullwhip Effect) pp.165~194(Bullwhip Effect) pp.165~194

•Order variability is amplified up the supply chain ： Upstream is worse

•Information distortion : What you see is not what they face

•Beer Game Phenomenon

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Increasing Variability of Orders Up the Supply ChainIncreasing Variability of Orders Up the Supply Chain

From ：” Coordination and Speed in Demand Management “, Hau Lee

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長鞭效應例長鞭效應例

嬰兒父母零售商批發商 P&G 3M

From: Hau Lee Lecture Materials

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什麼造成長鞭效應什麼造成長鞭效應

•非理性決策之結果 [Sterman]

•結構不完整下理性決策之結果 [Hau Lee]

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為何會產生長鞭效應為何會產生長鞭效應 ??

32

長鞭效應的起因長鞭效應的起因

• 需求預測 (Demand Forecasting)

• 訂單批量 (Batching Effect)

$35~$75/Per Order Process in 1993

Quarter End, FTL Discount 　　　　　　　　 • 價格變動 (Price Fluctuation)

• 缺貨競局 (Shortage Gaming)

• 前置時間 (Lead time)

=>=>Information Distortion

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價格變動例價格變動例 .(.( 促銷促銷 )-(I))-(I)

From ：” P&G Presentation Material ”, G.Y. Wang

Forward Buy: 80% transactions between mfgers & distributors in grocery industry $75~$100B of inventory in grocery industry(special discount, terms) Antibodies in pharmaceutical industry > 1yr supply

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價格變動例價格變動例 .(.( 促銷促銷 )-(II))-(II)


35

價格變動例價格變動例 .(.( 促銷促銷 )-(III))-(III)


36

價格變動例價格變動例 .(.( 促銷促銷 )-(IV))-(IV)


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複雜化造成供應鏈的無效率複雜化造成供應鏈的無效率

高低起伏的業績• 製程安排• 成品庫存• 裝載和運輸• 採購單 / 發票

消費者購買量

出貨量

增加成本 -- 並未創造價值！


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複雜化的結果複雜化的結果

• 侵蝕消費者對品牌和商品的忠誠度 - 複雜化令消費者難以選購 - 專注於價格 ; 而非整體表現

• 造成價格和促銷的無效率 - 當促銷費用增加 ; 消費者價格亦相對提高

• 造成補貨的無效率 - 昂貴的庫存 - 加班的成本

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長鞭效應成因之反制長鞭效應成因之反制

•反制一．

•反制二．

•反制三．

•反制四．

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長鞭效應成因之反制長鞭效應成因之反制

•反制一． POS/EDI (Sell-Thru), VMI, Lead time Reduction, Consumer Direct, CPFR

•反制二． CRP, 3PL/Consolidation, Mixed SKU TLs

•反制三． EDLP (In 1994, P&G Gained the Highest Profit Margin in 21 Years But Reduced Its List Price By 24%) reduces forward buy and promotion

•反制四． Allocation Based on Past Sales

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造成供應鏈管理問題的原因造成供應鏈管理問題的原因

• 資訊扭曲 (Information Distortion)

• 不同步的通路 (Asynchronized Channel)

• 鏈的複雜度 (Chain Complexity)

• 無效率的作業 (Inefficient Operations)

• 文化地區之差異 (Cultural Problems)

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• 預測不準• MPS 變化太大• 存貨過高• 存貨週轉率太低供應鏈管

理問題的徵兆• 顧客服務水準低落• 缺料，不預期換線頻繁• 長鞭效應明顯Key problem : 前置時間 (Lead rime)太長One of obvious solutions : 正確且快速回應 (Accurate and Quick

Response; AQR)---- 以資訊取代存貨

常聽到與績效管理有關的問題常聽到與績效管理有關的問題

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快速回應快速回應 (QR)(QR)

QR ：以資訊取代存貨 :(The substitution of information for inventory.) [From:Christopher]

AQR QR with the effective management of the supply chain.﹕

服務水準(S e rv iceL ev e l)

成本 (C o st)

QR

傳統的存貨系統Traditional Inventory System

100%

設置成本 (Setup cost)

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L e ss In v e n to ry in th eS u p p ly C h a in

R ed u ceL ead tim e

R e la x e d B u llw h ipE ffe c t

L e ss P ip e lin eIn v e n to ry

L e ss S c h e d u lin gU n c e rta in ty

B e tte r O n -tim eD e liv e ry /C u s to m e r

S e rv ic e

F e w e r M t'l S h o rta g e /U n e x p e c te d S e tu p

F e w e r F o re c a s t E rro r

L e ss S a fe ty S to c k

L e ssE C N s

L e ss Im p a c t fro mC o m p o n e n t P ric e

F lu c tu a tio n

縮短前置時間的重要性縮短前置時間的重要性

45

HP DeskjetHP DeskjetSupply Chain ManagementSupply Chain Management

Case StudyCase Study

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• Rapid Changing Technology.

• Highly Competitive Market.

•Commodity Product w/ Changing Marketing Channels.

•Quality/Reliability/Availability Are Important.

•Decreased Product Loyalty.

From: “Case Study: Hewlett-Packard: Deskjet Printer Supply“, Hau Lee

HP’s DeskJet Industry HP’s DeskJet Industry CharacteristicsCharacteristics

47

S u p p lie r

S u p p lie r

S u p p lie r

IC M fg

P C A T

P r in tM e c h M fg

F A T

S u p p lie r

U S D C

E u r o p e a nD C

F a r E a stD C

C u sto m e r

C u sto m e r

C u sto m e r

IC Mfg-Integrated Circuit ManufacturingPCAT-Printed Circuit Assembly and TestFAT-Final Assembly and TestPrint Mech Mfg-Print Mechanism Manufacturing


The Vancouver Supply ChainThe Vancouver Supply Chain

48

• Forecast nightmare

• Higher inventory and imbalanced inventory

• Lower customer service

• Terrible Bullwhip Effect


Problems FacedProblems Faced

49From: “Case Study: Hewlett-Packard: Deskjet Printer Supply“, Hau Lee

Sample Demand DataSample Demand DataNovember 89 to October 90November 89 to October 90

50

• Using Better Forecasting Model• Manufacturing In Europe• Delivery Through Air • Developing Universal Product• Building Core Product at Vancouver, Customizing in European DCs (Localization): An Application of Postponement


Suggested AlternativesSuggested Alternatives

51

manufacturing&

customization

manufacturing

transport distribution

transport Distributionlocalization


Supply Chain with PostponementSupply Chain with Postponement

52

• 延遲：延後產品間之差異化，以降低因多樣性產生之不良效應 (DFSCM)

•兩大手法 (By Hau Lee)

• 運送的延遲（ Logistic Postponement ）Moving customization point closer to customers.

• 形式的延遲（ Form Postponement ）Delaying differentiation point by standardization

延遲理論延遲理論 (Postponement)(Postponement)

53

The P/S-MATRIX AND GENERIC SUPPLY The P/S-MATRIX AND GENERIC SUPPLY CHAIN P/S-STRATEGIESCHAIN P/S-STRATEGIES

The full The full postponement postponement

strategystrategy

The The manufacturing manufacturing postponement postponement

strategystrategy

PostponementPostponementMake to Make to

orderorder

The logistics The logistics postponement postponement

strategystrategy

The full The full speculation speculation

strategystrategy

SpeculationSpeculationMake to Make to inventoryinventory

PostponementPostponementCentralized inventories Centralized inventories and direct distributionand direct distribution

SpeculationSpeculationDecentralizedDecentralized

inventoriesinventories

Logistics

Manufac-turing

From: “Supply Chain Postponement and Speculation Strategies: How to Choose the Right Strategy“, Pagh &Cooper

54

ILLUSTRATION OF THE FULL ILLUSTRATION OF THE FULL SPECULATION STRATEGYSPECULATION STRATEGY

Retailer/Customer

Plant of central

warehouse

Production plant Optional levels of

distribution warehouses

Final warehouse

level


55

ILLUSTRATION OF THE MANUFACTURING ILLUSTRATION OF THE MANUFACTURING

POSTPONEMENT STRATEGYPOSTPONEMENT STRATEGY

Retailer/Customer

Plant of central

warehouse

Production plant Optional levels of

distribution warehouses

Final warehouse

level


56

Retailer/Customer

Plant of central

warehouse

Production plant

ILLUSTRATION OF THE LOGISTICS ILLUSTRATION OF THE LOGISTICS



57

ILLUSTRATION OF THE FULL ILLUSTRATION OF THE FULL


Retailer/Customer Production plant


58

The P/S-MATRIX, AND IMPLICATIONS RELATEDThe P/S-MATRIX, AND IMPLICATIONS RELATED TO EACH GENERIC SUPPLY CHAIN P/S-STRATEGIES TO EACH GENERIC SUPPLY CHAIN P/S-STRATEGIES

Mid./high production costsMid./high production costsLow inventory costsLow inventory costsHigh distribution costsHigh distribution costsLow customer servicesLow customer services

Mid./high production costsMid./high production costsMid./high inventory costsMid./high inventory costsLow distribution costsLow distribution costsMid./high customer servicesMid./high customer services

PostponementPostponement

Low production costsLow production costsLow/mid. inventory costsLow/mid. inventory costsHigh distribution costsHigh distribution costsLow/mid. customer servicesLow/mid. customer services

Low production costsLow production costsHigh inventory costsHigh inventory costsLow distribution costsLow distribution costsHigh customer servicesHigh customer services

SpeculationSpeculation

PostponementPostponementSpeculationSpeculation

Logistics

Manufac-turing


59

標準化 / 模組化前標準化 / 模組化後

From: “Designing Products and Process for Postponement”, Lee and Billington

型式的延遲型式的延遲

60

• 產品模組化（ Product Modularity)

• Product Postponement

• 程序模組化（ Process Modularity ）• Group Technology

• Resequencing

• Concurrent Processing

延遲之重要關鍵延遲之重要關鍵

61

Logistic PostponementLogistic Postponementby Process Re-sequence : Searsby Process Re-sequence : Sears

From ：” Design for Supply Chain Management “, Hau Lee

62

Postponement ApplicationPostponement Application


63

Concurrency by Process DecouplingConcurrency by Process Decoupling

Canon


64

(1)那些製程 (process) 應由工廠完成 ? 那些該由 D.C.或 Distributor完成 ?

(2)如何評估 (justify)?

延遲的考慮因子延遲的考慮因子

65

•Redesign Costs, Module Safety Stock, Finished Goods Inventory, WIP, Testing, Freight, Customs & Duties, Fixed Investment, Extra Training at DCs, Leadtime, Forecast Errors, Schedule Accuracy, Material Shortages?


如何評估如何評估

66

THE CONCEPT OF THE PROFILE ANALYSISTHE CONCEPT OF THE PROFILE ANALYSIS

See Paper Figure 8. See Paper Figure 8.


67

USING THE PROFILE ANALYSIS; USING THE PROFILE ANALYSIS; A MAINSTREAM PRODUCT HAS BEEN PROFILEDA MAINSTREAM PRODUCT HAS BEEN PROFILED

See Paper Figure 9.See Paper Figure 9.


68

成長期成熟期衰退期

延遲與產品生命週期之關係延遲與產品生命週期之關係

Time

Value ofPostponement

Forecast UncertaintyInventory RiskShortage Cost


69

延遲效應之价值延遲效應之价值 VS.VS. 產品生命週期產品生命週期


Life of Product

Total Value of Postponement

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延遲效應之价值延遲效應之价值 VS.VS. 不確定因子不確定因子


Uncertainty Postponement Value

Demand VariabilityHigher for higher

variability

Option CorrelationsHigher if negative ;Lower if positive

Forecast HorizonHigher for longer

horizon

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• R&D: ‥ Not my job ‥ Why rock a successful product? ‥ Violating TQM principle

• Distribution Center: ‥ More work ‥ No experience in manufacturing ‥ No experience in procurement, BOM, and MRP


Resistance EncounteredResistance Encountered

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• Deskjet redesigned to be DC-localizable. Implementation in early 1992.

• Millions of dollars saved, from inventory and service improvement, and freight reduction.

• Innovative packaging won patents.

• All Vancouver products now DC-localized.

• Vancouver as showcase for “Design for Localization.” Best practice spreads to other HP divisions.From: “Case Study: Hewlett-Packard: Deskjet Printer Supply“, Hau Lee

ResultsResults

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Sport Obermeyer Ltd.Sport Obermeyer Ltd.Supply Chain ManagementSupply Chain Management

Case StudyCase Studywill be discussed on 5/5will be discussed on 5/5

供应链管理策略与方法(ppt 73)中英文版

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