service managing capacity and demand 2016smguo/teaching/slides/service... · 3 establishing price...
TRANSCRIPT
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Managing Capacity and Demand
• Managing dynamic demand
• Service capacity is perishable
• Yield Management
Shin‐Ming GuoNKFUST
Case: Increase Revenue with Fixed Capacity
• The Park Hyatt Philadelphia, 118 King/Queen rooms.
• Regular fare is rH= $225 (high fare) targeting business travelers.
• Hyatt offers a rL= $159 (low fare) discount fare for a mid‐week
stay targeting leisure travelers.
• Demand for low fare rooms is abundant.
• Most of the high fare demand occurs
only within a few days of the actual stay.
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Booking Limits and Yield Management
• Choice 1: Do not accept low fare reservation. Hope that high fare customers will eventually show up.
• Choice 2: Accept low fare reservations without any limit.
• Choice 3: Accept low fare reservations but reserve rooms for high fare customers
• Objective: Maximize expected revenues by controlling the sale of low fare rooms.
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Service Capacity
Participation: Need to be near customers
Simultaneity: Inability to transport services
Perishability: Inability to store services
Heterogeneity: Volatility of demand
Capacity: amount of output over a period of time
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Focus: Matching Capacity with Demand
• Demand can vary and is unpredictable.
• Capacity is inflexible and maybe costly.
• Demand < Capacity Impossible to stock service
• Demand > Capacity Customers may not wait for service
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Economic Consequences of Mismatch
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Air travel Emergency Room Retailing
Supply Seats on specific flight
Medical service Consumerelectronics
Demand Travel for specific time & destination
Urgent need for medical service
Kids buying video games
SupplyExceedsDemand
Empty seat Doctors, nurses, and infrastructure are under‐utilized
High inventory costs
DemandExceeds Supply
Overbooking; Profit loss
Crowding and delaysin the ER, Deaths
Foregone profit;
Consumer dissatisfaction
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Matching Supply and Demand for Services
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DEMANDStrategies
2 Partitioningdemand
5 Developingcomplementary
services
4 Promoting off‐peakdemand
3 Establishingprice
incentives 6 Developingreservationsystems
11 YieldManagement
CapacityStrategies
9 Cross‐training
employees
7 Increasingcustomer
participation
Sharingcapacity
8 Schedulingwork shifts
Creatingadjustablecapacity
10 Usingpart‐timeemployees
1 Managing Variability
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1. Managing Customer-induced Variability
Type of Variability
Accommodation Reduction
Arrival Provide generous staffing Require reservations
Capability Adapt to customer skill levels
Target customers based on capability
Request Cross‐train employees Limit service breadth
Effort Do work for customers Reward increased effort
SubjectivePreference
Diagnose expectations and adapt
Persuade customers to adjust expectations
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2. Segmenting Demand
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Mon. Tue. Wed. Thur. Fri.
BeforeSmoothingAfterSmoothing
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Smoothing Demand by AppointmentScheduling
Day Appointments
Monday 84Tuesday 89Wednesday 124Thursday 129Friday 114
Too many walk‐in patients on Mondays at a health clinic.
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3. Offering Price Incentives
• Differential Pricing
– Weekend rates for phone calls.
– Summer pricing by utility companies.
• Promoting Off‐Peak Demand
– Different sources of demand
– Hotel: conventions for business or professional groups during the off‐season.
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4. Discriminatory Pricing for Camping
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5. Developing Complementary Services
• A new service is the complementor if customers value your service more when they already have purchased the existing service.
• Movie theaters offer popcorns and soft drinks.
• A new service is the complementor if it results in a more uniform demand.
• Restaurants offer the “afternoon tea” service.
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6. Reservation and Overbooking
• Taking reservations is like preselling the service.
• Reservations may benefit consumers by reducing waiting and guarantee service availability.
• Approximately 50% of reservations get cancelled.
• Multiple reservations, late arrivals, no‐shows.
The company may fail to receive any revenue if a customer cancels the reservation or does not show up.
• Non‐refundable pre‐payment, overbooking
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Overbooking to Protect Revenue
Overbooking—accept more reservations than supply
Example: On average there would be 10 cancellations or no‐shows. So the hotel can accept 10 more reservations.
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Too much overbooking: some customers may have to be denied a seat even though they have a confirmed reservation.
Too little overbooking: waste of capacity, loss of revenue
Example: Surfside Hotel
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expected number of no‐shows = 0(0.07)+1(0.19)+…+9(0.01)=3.04
Expected opportunity loss = 3.04 × $40 = $121.60
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Cost of too many overbooking: Co=$100 for accommodation at some other hotel and additional compensation.
Cost of not enough overbooking: Cu=$40 per room.
Overbooking Solution
• Critical ratio
• Find x such that x is the largest number that satisfies P(number of no‐shows < x) ≤ 0.286
• Optimal number of overbooking = 2
• There is about a 26% chance that the hotel will have more customers than rooms.
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286.010040
40 ou
u
CCC
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Strategies for Managing Capacity
7. Increasing customer participation
8. Creating adjustable capacity
Different aircrafts, ability to move rental cars around.
9. Cross‐training employees
10. Using part‐time employees
11. Revenue Management
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7. Customer Participation
Customer participates actively in the service process.
Objectives:
• Cost reduction (less personnel is needed)
• Capacity becomes more “variable”, according to demand
Disadvantages:
• Customer expects quicker service
• Customer expects low prices (compensation for his help)
• Quality of customers “work” cannot be controlled by company (e.g., customer can leave his waste on the table)
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8. Workshift Scheduling
• The peak to valley variation is 125 to 1.
• Carefully schedule the workforce so that the required service level can be maintained with the minimal cost.
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Convert Demand and Schedule Shifts
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Scheduling Consecutive Days Off
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Scheduling Hourly Work Times: First Hour Principle 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Requirement 4 6 8 8 6 4 4 6 8 10 10 6 Assigned 4 On Duty 4
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0 0 0 0 08 8 8 8 8
48
410
210
010
Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun
forecast 4 3 4 2 3 1 2A 4 3 4 2 3 1 2
B 3 2 3 1 2 1 2
C 2 1 2 0 2 1 1
D 1 0 1 0 1 1 1
9. Cross-training & Part-time Employees
Training employees to be able to do different tasks
• Demand peaks: Each employee performs his specialized work (e.g., cashier in a supermarket)
• Low demand: Employee performs additional tasks: Job is
enlarged (e.g., filling the shelves in a supermarket)
Using part‐time employees
• When demand peaks can be foreseen: Additional staff can be employed for these times (e.g., lunchtime in restaurants)
• Skills needed low: Students can be taken (e.g., bakery)
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11. Revenue Management
• Return = Revenue – Operations Cost
= Throughput Price – Fixed Costs –Throughput Variable Costs
– Reduce fixed costs
– Reduce variable costs
– Increase price
– Increase throughput
• If capacity is fixed and perishable, fixed costs are high and variable costs are low, increasing price and/or throughput to improve profitability.
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Some U.S. Airline Industry Observations
• Carriers typically fill 72.4% of seats and have a break‐even load of 70.4%.
• From 1995‐1999 (the industry’s best 5 years ever) airlines earned 3.5 cents on each dollar of sales
• Very high fixed costs and perishable capacity.
• More ticket sales means more revenue and more profit.
• American Airlines estimated a profit of $1.5B over 3 years contributed by revenue management.
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Yield Management: Airline Pricing
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Example: Blackjack Airline
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d = demand for full fare ($69) ~ N(60, 152)
Expected revenue=6960=$4140
Demand for “gamblers fare” ($49) is abundant
Expected revenue=4995=$4655
Decision:
x = seats reserved for full fare passengers
95 seats
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Optimal Booking Solution
•
• (z)=P(d < x)=0.29 z= -0.55
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)1,0(~15
60 Nddz
5115)55.0(60
55.01560
x
xz
29.04920
20)( ou
u
CCC
xdP
Cost of too many seats reserved: Co=$49
Cost of not enough seats reserved: Cu=$20
Optimal Revenue for Blackjack Airline
• Z= ‐0.55 Normal Loss Function L(z)
=NORMDIST(z,0,1,0)‐z*(1‐NORMSDIST(z)) =0.7328
• For full fare customer
expected loss (due to not enough seats reserved) =L(z)∙=0.7328=10.99
expected sales + expected loss = expected full fare demand
expected sales=expected demand‐expected loss =60‐10.99=49.01
• Expected total revenue=49.01*69+(95‐51)*49 =$5537