society for risk analysis talk 2015: conflict of interest

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Conflict of interest perceptions and risk-related research partnerships John C. Besley, Aaron M. McCright, Kevin C. Elliott, Nagwan Zahry (graduate assistant), Tsuyoshi Oshita (graduate assistant) Busine ss Univer sity Government NGO SRA 2015

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Page 1: Society for Risk Analysis talk 2015: Conflict of Interest

Conflict of interest perceptions and risk-related research partnerships

John C. Besley, Aaron M. McCright, Kevin C. Elliott, Nagwan Zahry (graduate assistant), Tsuyoshi Oshita (graduate assistant)

Business University Government NGO

SRA 2015

Page 2: Society for Risk Analysis talk 2015: Conflict of Interest

A philosopher A sociologist An historian

A scientist A …Another scientist

Our interdisciplinary research group …

Page 3: Society for Risk Analysis talk 2015: Conflict of Interest

We want to do researchResearch costs money

Industry has moneyPeople worry about industry money

There are some ways to mitigate real problems (!)Are there ways to mitigate perceptual problems?

A problem…

Page 4: Society for Risk Analysis talk 2015: Conflict of Interest

What do we know so far…

• Clear evidence that groups such as doctors (and others) question validity of industry funded research

Page 5: Society for Risk Analysis talk 2015: Conflict of Interest

What do we know so far…

• Some evidence that people use perceptions of procedural fairness to assess whether decisions taken in situations of uncertainty (such as scientific research) are valid

Page 6: Society for Risk Analysis talk 2015: Conflict of Interest

What do we know so far…

• Suggestion that procedural fairness perceptions can be used to operationalize perceptions of …

“conflict of interest”

… a conflict of interest can be understood as a situation where an individual or organization has a decision-making role that might allow them to improperly benefit from the decisions the individual might make*

*See: Davis, M. (2001). Introduction. In M. Davis & A. Stark (Eds.), Conflict of Interest in the Professions (pp. 3-19). New York, NY: Oxford University Press.

Page 7: Society for Risk Analysis talk 2015: Conflict of Interest

2 Experiments(And maybe a bonus experiment)

Page 8: Society for Risk Analysis talk 2015: Conflict of Interest

Study 1: Does partner choice affect fairness and legitimacy perceptions?

Design• Four partners (University, Industry, Government, NGO)• 15 combinations (2 x 2 x 2 x 2 [- 1])

• All 4 partners, all 3 of 4 partner combos, etc. • Pre-test used to identity partners with

high positive and low negative perceptions

• Context: Regulation of low levels of transfats• Sample: 626 US-based mTurkers

• Multiple attention/manipulation checks (data excluded)

Page 9: Society for Risk Analysis talk 2015: Conflict of Interest

Study 1: What it looked like …

Partner manipulation(also repeated in question stems)

Page 10: Society for Risk Analysis talk 2015: Conflict of Interest

Study 1: What it looked like …

• Six statements for procedural fairness DV as bias control + voice• Cronbach’s alpha = .93

• Highly correlated with direct measure of conflict of interest

Page 11: Society for Risk Analysis talk 2015: Conflict of Interest

Study 1: What it looked like …

• Four statements for legitimacy DV as willingness to use results• Cronbach’s alpha = .79

• MLE factor analysis suggests itemsdifferent from fairness items, r = .64

Page 12: Society for Risk Analysis talk 2015: Conflict of Interest

Study 1: Fairness for Partnership

Industry = Relative Low Fairness

Shared letter = Not significantly different based on a post-hoc test

Kelloggs

(a)

Kelloggs

+ CDC (ab)

Kelloggs

+ UCS (ab)

Purdue +

Kelloggs +

CDC (abc)

Purdue + Kello

ggs (

abc)

Kelloggs

+ CDC + UCS (abcd

)

Purdue + Kello

ggs + CDC + UCS (

bcd)

Purdue + Kello

ggs +

UCS (bcd

)

Purdue + CDC (b

cd)

CDC (bcd

)

Purdue (b

cd)

Purdue + CDC + UCS (

cd)

UCS (d)

CDC + UCS (d

)

Purdue +

UCS (d)

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

Page 13: Society for Risk Analysis talk 2015: Conflict of Interest

Study 1: Fairness for Partnership

Some benefit to adding partners

Shared letter = Not significantly different based on a post-hoc test

Kelloggs

(a)

Kelloggs

+ CDC (ab)

Kelloggs

+ UCS (ab)

Purdue +

Kelloggs +

CDC (abc)

Purdue + Kello

ggs (

abc)

Kelloggs

+ CDC + UCS (abcd

)

Purdue + Kello

ggs + CDC + UCS (

bcd)

Purdue + Kello

ggs +

UCS (bcd

)

Purdue + CDC (b

cd)

CDC (bcd

)

Purdue (b

cd)

Purdue + CDC + UCS (

cd)

UCS (d)

CDC + UCS (d

)

Purdue +

UCS (d)

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

Page 14: Society for Risk Analysis talk 2015: Conflict of Interest

Study 1: Same pattern for legitimacy …

Shared letter = Not significantly different based on a post-hoc test

Kelloggs

+ UCS (a)

Purdue + Kello

ggs +

CDC (ab)

Kelloggs

+ CDC (abc)

Purdue + Kello

ggs (abc)

Kelloggs

(abc)

Kelloggs

+ CDC + UCS (abc)

UCS (abc)

Purdue + CDC (a

bc)

Purdue +

Kelloggs +

UCS (abc)

CDC + UCS (b

c)

Purdue (b

c)

Purdue + Kello

ggs +

CDC + UCS (bc)

CDC (bc)

Purdue + CDC + UCS (

bc)

Purdue + UCS (c

)1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

Page 15: Society for Risk Analysis talk 2015: Conflict of Interest

Study 1: As a mediation model in PROCESS …

Shared letter = Not significantly different based on a post-hoc test

B SE Sig. B SE Sig.Outcome: Perceived Fairness Direct and Indirect Effects(Constant) 4.88 .15 .00 Direct effects of Kellogg's -.07 .11 .51Partnership includes Kellogg's -.92 .11 .00 Indirect effects of Kellogg's -.61 .08 [-.79, -.46]Partnership includes Purdue .21 .12 .07Partnership includes CDC -.02 .11 .87 Direct effects of Purdue -.02 .10 .81Partnership includes UCS .41 .12 .00 Indirect effects of Purdue .14 .07 [-.01, .30]

r2 .15Outcome: Perceived Legitimacy Direct effects of CDC .28 .10 .00(Constant) 1.17 .23 .00 Indirect effects of CDC -.01 .08 [-.16, .14]Perceived fairness of partnership .66 .04 .00Partnership includes Kellogg’s -.07 .11 .51 Direct effects of UCS .06 .10 .54Partnership includes Purdue -.02 .10 .81 Indirect effects of UCS .27 .07 [.12, .41]Partnership includes CDC .28 .10 .00Partnership includes UCS .06 .10 .54

r2 .42• Industry hurts fairness• NGO/university(?) helps fairness• Fairness mediates the

relationship with legitimacy• Government has direct effect

Page 16: Society for Risk Analysis talk 2015: Conflict of Interest

Study 2: Replicate study in context of GMO partnership

Design• Same 4-partner design• DVs: Fairness and Legitimacy• New context: GMO safety testing• Sample: 627 US-based mTurkers, with attention test

Page 17: Society for Risk Analysis talk 2015: Conflict of Interest

Study 1: Fairness for Partnership

Shared letter = Not significantly different based on a post-hoc test

Purdue +

Kelloggs +

CDC (a)

Kelloggs

(a)

Kelloggs

+ UCS (ab)

Kelloggs

+ CDC (abc)

Purdue + Kello

ggs (

abc)

Kelloggs

+ CDC + UCS (abcd

)

Purdue + Kello

ggs +

UCS (abcd

)

CDC + UCS (a

bcd)

Purdue + Kello

ggs +

CDC + UCS (abcd

)

Purdue + CDC (a

bcd)

CDC (bcd

)

Purdue + CDC + UCS (

cd)

Purdue (c

d)

UCS (cd)

Purdue +

UCS (d)

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00Industry = Relative Low Fairness (again)

• A similar pattern again for legitimacy

Page 18: Society for Risk Analysis talk 2015: Conflict of Interest

Study 1: Transfats Study 2: GMOs B SE Sig. B SE Sig.Outcome: Perceived Fairness(Constant) 4.88 .15 .00 4.77 .14 .00Partnership includes Kellogg's -.92 .11 .00 -.73 .11 .00Partnership includes Purdue .21 .12 .07 .18 .11 .09Partnership includes CDC -.02 .11 .87 -.03 .11 .77Partnership includes UCS .41 .12 .00 .27 .11 .01

r2 .15 .09Outcome: Perceived Legitimacy(Constant) 1.17 .23 .00 1.81 .20 .00Perceived fairness of partnership .66 .04 .00 .60 .03 .00Partnership includes Kelloggs -.07 .11 .51 -.09 .09 .34Partnership includes Purdue -.02 .10 .81 .14 .09 .12Partnership includes CDC .28 .10 .00 .12 .09 .17Partnership includes UCS .06 .10 .54 -.01 .09 .90

r2 .42 .61Direct and Indirect EffectsDirect effects of Kelloggs -.07 .11 .51 -.09 .09 .34Indirect effects of Kellogg's -.61 .08 [-.79, -.46] -.44 .07 [-.61, -.32]

Direct effects of Purdue -.02 .10 .81 .14 .09 .12Indirect effects of Purdue .14 .07 [-.01, .30] .11 .07 [-.03, .24]

Direct effects of CDC .28 .10 .00 .12 .09 .17Indirect effects of CDC -.01 .08 [-.16, .14] -.02 .06 [-.15, .11]

Direct effects of UCS .06 .10 .54 -.02 .09 .90Indirect effects of UCS .27 .07 [.12, .41] .16 .07 [.03, 30]

• Industry still a problem• NGO still helps• University still a (weak) positive• No direct effect for government

Page 19: Society for Risk Analysis talk 2015: Conflict of Interest

Bonus Study: Beyond Partners to ProceduresDesign• 4 partner combos x 4 procedures• Same 3-partners (no government), between subjects

• Four types of procedures to protect research• No procedure• Transparency• Third party review• Arm’s length agreement

• Context: Back to transfats• DV: Fairness (also legitimacy) • Sample: 962 US-based mTurkers, with attention test

Page 20: Society for Risk Analysis talk 2015: Conflict of Interest

Bonus Study: Beyond Partners to Procedures

Procedural manipulation

Partner combo manipulation

Page 21: Society for Risk Analysis talk 2015: Conflict of Interest

Fairness by partnership and type of procedure

Any Kelloggs

Involvement

Kelloggs

+ UCS

Purdue + Kello

ggs

Purdue + Kello

ggs + UCS

Purdue + UCS

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

No procedureTransparency3rd partyArm's Length

ab

abb ab

b

[F(3, 958) = 6.24, p = .00]

Page 22: Society for Risk Analysis talk 2015: Conflict of Interest

Fairness by procedure and type of partnership

No procedure Transparency 3rd party Arm's Length0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

Any Kelloggs InvolvementKelloggs + UCSPurdue + KelloggsPurdue + Kelloggs + UCSPurdue + UCS

Page 23: Society for Risk Analysis talk 2015: Conflict of Interest

GLM Parameter Estimates for Fairness B SE Sig. Part-

Eta2Intercept 5.33 .23 .00 .30Purdue .31 .10 .00 .01UCS .06 .10 .56 .00Kelloggs -1.31 .18 .00 .04

Arm's Length .17 .22 .45 .00Kelloggs*Arm's Length .34 .25 .17 .00

Transparency -.22 .21 .28 .00Kellogg's*Transparency .52 .24 .03 .00

3rd Party -.13 .20 .53 .00Kellogg's*3rd Party .53 .23 .02 .00

• University partner good for fairness

• Arm’s length policy n.s.• Transparency procedure

helpful with industry partner• 3rd party oversight help

with industry partner• Arm’s length (b = .42)

and 3rd party procedures (b = .28) are significant without interaction terms

Adjusted r2 = .13

Page 24: Society for Risk Analysis talk 2015: Conflict of Interest

Discussion …

When it comes to perceptions of fairness (and legitimacy)1. An industry partner (even a nice one) hurts perceptions2. Adding additional partners doesn’t help much3. Adding procedural safeguards doesn’t help much

Should academic scientists never accept industry collaboration?

Page 25: Society for Risk Analysis talk 2015: Conflict of Interest

Discussion …

What if we were to add multiple procedures?What about other issues, including non-risk issues?Is it all collaboration or just ones involving funding?

Does it really matter in the ‘real’ world?