Sustaining Asia ‘s Economic Recovery:

Challenges and Opportunities

Dr Thein SwePayap UniversityChiang Mai, Thailand.

6th Asia Economic ForumPhnom Penh, Cambodia.January 20 – 21, 2010

Table 1

World Economic Outlook Projections

(percent change) ProjectIon

2007 2008 2009 2010

World Output……………………… 5.2 3.0 - 1.1 3.1

Advanced economies……………. 2.7 0.6 - 3.4 1.3

United States …………………… 2.1 0.4 - 2.7 1.5

Euro area ………………………. 2.7 0.7 - 4.2 0.3

Japan …………………………… 2.3 - 0.7 - 5.4 1.7

Emerging and developing economies 8.3 6.0 1.7 5.1

Developing Asia………………… 10.6 7.6 6.2 7.3

China …………………………… 13.0 9.0 8.5 9.0

India……………………………… 9.4 7.3 5.4 6.4

Asean – 5 …………………………. 6.3 4.8 0.7 4.0

(Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand & Viet Nam)

Source: World Economic Outlook IMF 2009.

Table 2

Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

(Annual percent change)

               

Country 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

   

Australia 3.8 2.8 2.8 4.0 2.4 0.7 2.0

Japan 2.7 1.9 2.0 2.3 -0.7 -5.4 1.7

New Zealand 4.5 2.8 2.0 3.2 0.2 -2.2 2.2

Singapore 9.3 7.3 8.4 7.8 1.1 -3.3 4.1

Korea 4.6 4.0 5.2 5.1 2.2 -1.0 3.6

Malaysia 6.8 5.3 5.8 6.2 4.6 -3.6 2.5

Thailand 6.3 4.6 5.2 4.9 2.6 -3.5 3.7

China 10.1 10.4 11.6 13.0 9.0 8.5 9.0

Philippines 6.4 5.0 5.3 7.1 3.8 1.0 3.2

Indonesia 5.0 5.7 5.5 6.3 6.1 4.0 4.8

Viet Nam 7.8 8.4 8.2 8.5 6.2 4.6 5.3

India 7.9 9.2 9.8 9.4 7.3 5.4 6.4

Cambodia 10.3 13.3 10.8 10.2 6.7 -2.7 4.3

Source: World Economic Outlook, October 2009,

Sustainng the Recovery, International Monetary Fund, 2009.

Table 3

Direction of Trade: Merchandize Exports

(Percent of Total Merchandize Exports)

Country Asia Europe N & C America Middle East Others

  1990 2008 1990 2008 1990 2008 1990 2008 1990 2008

Singapore 47.2 66.1 17.2 10.1 23.0 10.0 2.6 2.5 10.1 11.2

Korea 34.0 51.0 15.5 15.6 33.4 16.2 3.0 5.3 14.1 11.9

Malaysia 58.0 60.9 16.6 11.7 18.1 15.0 2.5 3.5 4.9 8.9

Thailand 37.9 54.7 25.3 14.9 25.3 13.2 5.4 5.4 6.2 11.9

China 68.3 40.3 14.7 23.7 10.0 22.0 2.3 4.4 4.7 9.5

Philippines 34.8 67.9 18.8 11.4 40.2 14.4 1.6 1.0 4.5 5.2

Indonesia 64.4 63.5 12.8 12.7 13.8 10.9 3.0 3.7 6.0 9.2

Viet Nam 39.1 39.8 48.1 20.6 0.6 22.0 0.9 0.6 11.2 17.0

Lao PDR 85.2 64.8 11.1 11.4 1.7 2.8 0.0 0.1 2.0 20.9

India 21.0 35.4 47.2 22.7 16.3 15.2 7.1 15.8 8.3 10.9

Cambodia 90.9 11.0 7.8 18.9 0.4 47.8 0.1 21.3 0.7 1.0

Source: ADB Key Indicators 2009.

Table 4

Gini Index, A Measure of Income Inequality /1

HDI GDP per capita Share of Income Inequality Measures

Country Rank 2009 US$ PPP Poorest RichestRichest 10%

to Index  10% 10% Poorest 10%

Norway 1 0.971 $54,433 3.9 23.4 6.1 25.8Australia 2 0.960 $34,923 2.0 25.4 12.5 35.2Japan 10 0.960 $33,632 4.8 21.7 4.5 24.9USA 13 0.956 $45,592 1.9 29.9 15.9 40.8

New Zealand 20 0.950 $27,336 2,2 27.8 12.5 36.2Singapore 23 0.944 $49,704 1.9 32.8 17.7 42.5Korea 26 0.937 $24,801 2.9 22.5 7.8 31.6Malaysia 66 0.829 $13,518 2.6 28.5 `11.0 49.2Thailand 87 0.783 $8,135 2.6 33.7 13.1 42.0China 92 0.772 $5,383 2.4 31.4 13.2 46.9Philippines 105 0.751 $3,406 2.4 33.0 14.1 44.5Indonesia 111 0.734 $3,712 3.0 32.3 10.8 34.3Viet Nam 116 0.725 $2,600 3.1 29.8 9.7 37.8Lao PDR 133 0.619 $2,165 3.7 27.0 7.3 34.6India 134 0.612 $2,753 3.6 31.1 8.6 36.8Cambodia 137 0.593 $1,802 3.0 34,2 11.5 41.7

SOURCE: UNDP Human Development Report 2009.

Table 5Gross Domestic Saving

(Percent of GDP)

Country 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Australia 23.6 23.9 25.6 26.3 27

Japan 24.0 24.6 24.6 24.2 n.a.

New Zealand 24.0 22.8 22.0 22.9 n.a.

Singapore 47.1 48.8 50.3 52.4 50.0

Korea 34.1 32.3 31.0 30.9 30.3

Malaysia 43.4 42.8 43.1 42.0 42.2

Thailand 31/7 30.9 32.4 34.1 33.2

China 45.6 46.6 47.8 49.9 50.4

Philippines 21.2 21.0 20.1 20.8 19.2

Indonesia 24.9 27.5 28.7 28.1 30.6

Viet Nam 28.5 30.3 30.6 29.2 26.6

India 31.7 34.2 35.7 37.7 n.a.

Cambodia 8.5 9.9 13.8 16.1 30.3Source: ADB Key Indicators 2009.

Table 6

THREE SCENARIOS TO REDUCE POVERTY AND INEQUALITY

             

SCENARIO ONE  

Increasing Income             

             

SCENARIO TWO  

Reduce Income Inequality             

   

SCENARIO THREE  

Increase Social Mobility and Space             

EAS (ASEAN + 6)

- Australia - New Zealand

- India

ASEAN+3

- Japan

- Republic of Korea

- People’s Republic of

China

ASEAN - Philippines - Thailand - Malaysis- Myanmar - Singapore-Lao PDR - Indonesia

-Cambodia - Brunei Darussalam - Viet Nam

Focus on the core Regional Cooperation

Source: Emerging Asian Regionalism, ADB 2008