td140403_2

PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com 1DAILY

TRIM Daily

Yesterday market experienced profi t taking in the afternoon session, which may

resume today. We suggest investors to buy on weakness, particularly for large

caps such as BBRI and ASII. We visited ASII yesterday, which remains confi dent

in auto market share on the back of LCGC sales. We also like SMBR for small cap

on the back of attractive valuation and stronger growth than its peers. Today there

is also news on AISA, which plans to spinoff its plantation business to improve its

ROE and reduce capex requirement. Within construction sector, we continue to

push WIKA as top pick. We expect Wika Beton (WIKA’s subsidiary) listing on 8 April

to do well, which could be a catalyst for WIKA.

Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) down by 3.7 points or -0.08% to 4,870.2 yesterday.

Index movers were mostly driven by Infrastructure, Utility, and Transportation

(-0.85%), Agricultural (-0.47%), and Mining (-0.30%). Total transaction value was

Rp7.1tr with regular market transaction Rp5.9tr. IDX recorded Rp961bn net buy by

foreign investors. Yesterday technical correction is a healthy correction in our view.

However, we believe the correction will further persist today within the range of

4749-4903.

JCI 4,870.2

STOCK PRICE Rec Details

LSIP 2250 BuyLSIP a potential upside today with trading range 2175-2305

ASII 7725 BuyWe expect ASII to trade up today in the range of 7550-7950. Buy at level 7700 with target price 7950 (resistance)

PTPP 1915 BuyWith stochastic indicator to form a golden cross, we expect a upware movement for PTPP today in the range of 1860-1940

WIKA 2495 BuyWe expect WIKA to further strengthen, with today’s trading range of 2390-2575

UNVR 29925 BuyUNVR is expected to continue its strengthening within the support and resistance levels of 29300-29700

ASRI 625 Trading Buy Trading Buy at level 620 and sell at 645

PWON 374 Trading Buy Trading Buy at level 370 and sell at 382

LPKR 1145 Trading Buy Trading Buy at level 1130 and sell at 1190

KLBF 1495 SellDespite the recent open black candle formation, stochastic oscillator will form a dead cross, in our view. Thus, KLBF’s trading range today is around 1465-1520

JSMR 6100 SellJSMR today is expected to continue its weakening trend and trade in 5900-5175 range

TRIM Highlights

Market View

Trader’s Pick

REKSA DANA TRIMEGAH ASSET MANAGEMENT

NAB Chg %

Trim Kapital 8,240.1 7.2 0.09

Trim Kapital + 3,059.6 -1.1 -0.03

Trim Syariah SHM 1,531.6 -0.5 -0.04

Tram Consumption + 1,357.3 3.2 0.23

Trim Komb 2 1,823.7 0.6 0.03

Trim Syariah B 2,176.5 1.4 0.06

Trim Dana Stabil 2,083.3 10.7 0.52

Trim Dana Tetap 2 1,655.9 2.2 0.13

Tram PDPT USD 1.1 -0.0 -0.12

Tram Reguler INC 994.7 0.0 0.00

Tram Strategic Fund 1,075.8 2.5 0.23

Trim Kas 2 1,069.4 0.2 0.02

APRIL 03, 2014

Change : -0.08%

Transaction Volume (m) : 6,841.3

Transaction Value (Rpbn) : 7,066.9

Mkt Cap (Rptr) : 4,814.1

Market P/E (x) : 15.3

Market Div. Yield (%) : 2.0

Price Chg %

Dow Jones 16,573.0 40.4 0.2

Nasdaq 4,276.5 8.4 0.2

Nikkei 14,946.3 154.3 1.0

ST Times 3,192.8 -5.7 -0.2

FTSE 6,659.0 6.4 0.1

Hang Seng 22,523.9 75.4 0.3

GLOBAL INDICES

(USD) (Rp) Chg %

TLKM 40.2 11,340.2 -0.08 -0.2

DUAL LISTING (NYSE )

Chg %

USD IDR 11,295 -19.0 -0.2

10 yr Indo Govr bond (%) 7.85 -0.0 -0.3

10 yr US govt bond (%) 2.8 0.05 1.7

Spread (%) 5.04 -0.07 -1.9

EIDO 28.5 -0.2 -0.6

Foreign YtD (USDmn) 2,379 86.2 3.8

OTHERS

Global WrapIn U.S., the U.S. ADP employment rose to 191,000 in March (vs consensus:

195,000) from an upwardly revised 178,000 in prior month. The U.S. factory

orders jumped 1.6% in February (vs consensus: +1.2%), following a downwardly

revised 1.0% decline in prior month. In Europe, the Eurozone PPI fell 1.7% in

February (vs consensus: -1.6%) from 0.3% decline in January.

PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com2 DAILY

News of the DayGIAA: Seek for USD200mn loans

GIAA is seeking for USD200mn loans, which will be used

to purchase 29 units of fl eet. The Company expects to own

169 units of fl eet by end of 2014. GIAA plans for USD146mn

right issue to fund its expansion, which will be done in 4th

week of Apr’14 (indicated new share prices: Rp460 – Rp500).

Additionally, it has signed a loan agreement amounted to

USD100mn from BNII. Source: Bisnis Indonesia

AISA: Plan to Spin Off Plantation Business

TPS plans to spin off its plantation business to focus on food

and beverage business. Spin off will be done through IPO

of PT Bumiraya Investindo in April 2014 (target Rp400bn).

Standby buyers for Bumiraya shares are Kohlberg Kravis

Roberts & Co LP (KKR) and Bunge Agribusiness Singapore.

The IPO would make shares owned by TPS Food in Bumiraya

to be diluted under 50%. According to the company, it has

acquired PT Golden Plantation which will be set as the holding

of Bumiraya Investindo. The company that is set for IPO is

Golden Plantation. After IPO, TPS Food will divest the Bumiraya

shares with est. value of USD 80mn which will be used for

business expansion. KKR already owned 14% shares of AISA

which increase KKR’s ownership from previously 9.5% and

makes KKR the 2nd largest shareholder in AISA. TPS Food

is also planning to have new business line on dairy products.

Source: Investor Daily

ITMG: Allocates 2014 capex amounted to USD85mn

lower than USD150mn in 2013

ITMG allocates 2014 capex amounted to USD85mn (or

Rp971bn), lower than USD150mn in 2013. The funding

source is internal cash and will be used for infrastructure

in mining area. ITMG plans to build a power plant located

in Indomico Mandiri, ITMG’s subsidiary. ITMG targets 2014

revenues to reach USD2.3-2.5bn up around 6.0%- 15.2% YoY

from USD2.17mn in 2013, supported by higher sales volume

and ASP. Sales volume is targeted to reach 29.7mn ton in

2014 compared to 29.1mn ton in 2013 while ASP is expected

to reach USD80-85 per ton up from USD74.9 per ton last

year. Source: Investor Daily

Comment

ITMG’s AGM recently, approved to distribute USD195mn (or

Rp2.2tr) from FY13 earnings as cash dividend, given 85%

dividend payout ratio or equivalent to USD17cent per shares

or Rp1959 per shares (forex: Rp11,300/USD). However,

ITMG has distribute Rp1,014 per shares of dividend interim

in Nov’13. Hence, the fi nal dividend is Rp945/sh or 3.8%

dividend yield.


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Statistics

INDONESIA & SECTORS +/- (%) YTD(%)

COMMODITIES +/- (%) YTD(%)

INDICES REGION +/- (%) YTD(%)

KURS REGION +/- (%) YTD(%)

JCI WINNERS (%) JCI LOSERS (%) JCI VALUE (Rpmn) JCI VOLUME (Lot) JCI FREQ (X)


World Economic Calendar

Date Time Country Event Period Survey Actual Prior

26-Mar-14 US Durable Goods Orders (%) Feb 0.8 2.2 -1.3

US Durables Ex Transportation (%) Feb 0.3 0.2 0.9

GE GfK Consumer Confi dence Apr 8.5 8.5 8.5

27-Mar-14 US Initial Jobless Claims (000's) 22-Mar 323 311 321

US GDP Annualized QoQ (%) 4Q T 2.7 2.6 2.4

US Personal Consumption (%) 4Q T 2.7 3.3 2.6

US Pending Home Sales MoM (%) Feb 0.2 -0.8 -0.2

28-Mar-14 US Personal Income (%) Feb 0.3 0.3 0.3

US Personal Spending (%) Feb 0.3 0.3 0.2

US PCE Defl ator YoY (%) Feb 0.9 0.9 1.2

US PCE Core YoY (%) Feb 1.1 1.1 1.1

US Univ. of Michigan Confi dence Mar F 80.5 80.0 79.9

EC Consumer Confi dence Mar F -- -9.3 -9.3

JN National CPI YoY (%) Feb 1.5 1.5 1.4

31-Mar-14 US Chicago Purchasing Manager Mar 59.8 55.9 59.8

US Dallas Fed Manf. Activity Mar 3.0 4.9 0.3

GE Retail Sales YoY (%) Feb 0.8 2.0 0.9

GE Retail Sales MoM (%) Feb -0.5 1.3 2.5

JN Industrial Production MoM Feb P 0.3 -2.3 3.8

1-Apr-14 ID Trade Balance (USD bn) Feb 300 785 -444

ID Exports YoY (%) Feb -1.59 -2.96 -5.87

ID Imports YoY (%) Feb -3.00 -9.98 -3.46

ID CPI YoY (%) Mar 7.35 7.32 7.75

ID CPI NSA MoM (%) Mar 0.11 0.08 0.26

ID CPI Core YoY (%) Mar 4.50 4.61 4.57

ID HSBC Indonesia Manufacturing PMI Mar -- 50.1 50.5

US Markit US Manufacturing PMI Mar F 56.0 55.5 55.5

US ISM Manufacturing Mar 54.0 53.7 53.2

US IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Apr 46.0 48.0 45.1

US Total Vehicle Sales (000's) Mar 15.80 16.33 15.27

CH Manufacturing PMI Mar 50.1 50.3 50.2

CH HSBC China Manufacturing PMI Mar F 48.1 48.0 48.1

EC Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Mar F 53.0 53.0 53.0

EC Unemployment Rate (%) Feb 12.0 11.9 11.9

2-Apr-14 US ADP Employment Change (000's) Mar 195 191 178

US Factory Orders (%) Feb 1.2 1.6 -1.0

EC PPI YoY (%) Feb -1.6 -1.7 -0.3

3-Apr-14 US Initial Jobless Claims (000's) 29-Mar 318 -- 311

US Trade Balance (USD bn) Feb -38.5 -- 39.1

US ISM Non-Manf. Composite Mar 53.5 -- 51.6

CH Non-manufacturing PMI Mar -- -- 55.0

CH HSBC China Services PMI Mar -- -- 51.0

EC ECB Announces Interest Rates (%) 3-Apr 0.250 -- 0.250

EC Retail Sales YoY (%) Feb -- -- 1.3

EC Markit Eurozone Services PMI Mar F -- -- 52.4

EC Markit Eurozone Composite PMI Mar F -- -- 53.2

4-Apr-14 US Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (000' s) Mar 200 -- 175

US Unemployment Rate (%) Mar 6.6 -- 6.7

7-Apr-14 GE Industrial Production SA MoM (%) Feb -- -- 0.8

GE Industrial Production WDA YoY (%) Feb -- -- 5.0

8-Apr-14 ID Bank Indonesia Reference Rate (%) 8-Apr 7.50 -- 7.50

US NFIB Small Business Optimism Mar -- -- 91.4

JN BOJ 2014 Monetary Base Target (JPY Tn) 8-Apr -- -- 270

9-Apr-14 US Wholesale Inventories MoM (%) Feb 0.5 -- 0.6

GE Trade Balance (EUR bn) Feb -- -- 15.0

GE Exports SA MoM (%) Feb -- -- 2.2

GE Imports SA MoM (%) Feb -- -- 4.1


RESEARCH TEAM

Sebastian Tobing, CFA

Head of Research & Institutional Sales

([email protected])

Frederick Daniel Tanggela

Equity Analyst

([email protected])

Robby Hafi l

Equity Analyst

(robby.hafi [email protected])

Melvina Wildasari

Equity Analyst

([email protected])

EQUITY CAPITAL MARKET TEAM

JAKARTA

Nathanael Benny Prasetyo

Head of Retail ECM

([email protected])

Ariawan Anwar

Artha Graha, Jakarta

([email protected])

Windra Djulnaily

Pluit, Jakarta

([email protected])

Musji Hartono

Mangga Dua, Jakarta

([email protected])

Ferry Zabur

Kelapa Gading, Jakarta

([email protected])

Very Wijaya

BSD, Jakarta

([email protected])

SUMATRA

Juliana Effendy

Medan, Sumatera Utara

([email protected])

Tantie Rivi Watie

Pekanbaru, Riau

([email protected])

Hari Mulyono Soewandi

Palembang, Sumatra Selatan

([email protected])

Maria Renata

Equity Analyst

([email protected])

Gina Novrina Nasution, CSA

Equity Analyst

([email protected])

Hapiz Sakti Azi

Research Associate

([email protected])

Paula Ruth

Research Associate

([email protected])

EAST INDONESIA

Wiranto Sunyoto

Branch Area Manager

([email protected])

Sonny Muljadi

Surabaya, Jawa Timur

([email protected]

Ni Made Dwi Hapsari Wijayanti

Denpasar, Bali

([email protected])

Ivan Jaka Perdana

Malang, Jawa Timur

([email protected])

Agus Jatmiko

Balikpapan, Kalimantan Timur

([email protected])

Arifi n Pribadi

Ujung Pandang, Sulawesi Selatan

(arifi [email protected])

CENTRAL JAVA

Agus Bambang Suseno

Solo, Jawa Tengah

([email protected])

Andrew Jatmiko

Yogyakarta, Jawa Tengah

([email protected])

Muhammad Ishaq

Semarang, Jawa Tengah

[email protected])

Joshua N.C. Tjeuw

Research Associate

([email protected])

Rovandi

Research Associate

([email protected])

WEST JAVA

Asep Saepudin

Bandung, Jawa Barat

([email protected])

Ariffi anto

Cirebon, Jawa Barat

(ariffi [email protected])

5

DISCLAIMER:This report has been prepared by PT Trimegah Securities Tbk on behalf of itself and its affi liated companies and is provided for information purposes only. Under no circumstances is it to be used or considered as an offer to sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy. This report has been produced independently and the forecasts, opinions and expectations contained herein are entirely those of Trimegah Securities. While all reasonable care has been taken to ensure that information contained herein is not untrue or misleading at the time of publication, Trimegah Securities makes no representation as to its accuracy or completeness and it should not be relied upon as such. This report is provided solely for the information of clients of Trimegah Securities who are expected to make their own investment decisions without reliance on this report. Neither Trimegah Securities nor any offi cer or employee of Trimegah Securities accept any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this report or its contents. Trimegah Securities and/or persons connected with it may have acted upon or used the information herein contained, or the research or analysis on which it is based, before publication. Trimegah Securities may in future participate in an offering of the company’s equity securities.

PT Trimegah Securities Tbk

Gedung Artha Graha 18th Floor

Jl. Jend. Sudirman Kav. 52-53

Jakarta 12190, Indonesia

t. +62-21 2924 9088

f. +62-21 2924 9150

www.trimegah.com

td140403_2

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