the economy of japan 日本経済日本経済. traditional japan 2 source: web japan & japanese...
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THE ECONOMY OF JAPAN
日本経済
Traditional Japan
2Source: Web Japan & Japanese Consulate General, San Francisco 2
Contemporary Japan
3
“Cool Japan”Japanimation“KAWAII”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i12bIqfRXJM
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Looking at Some of the BasicsGeography
• Four main islands: • Hokkaido (N) • Honshu (main island) – Tokyo, Mt. Fuji, Osaka, Hiroshima• Shikoku – Rural • Kyushu (SW) – Fukuoka, Kagoshima, Nagasaki
• Most of the population is in Honshu, between the Kanto (Tokyo-Yokohama-Kawasaki) in the east and the Kansai (Kobe-Osaka-Kyoto) in the west
• Tokyo – Yokohama has almost 25% of the population (over 33 million)
• Close to 80% of the land is mountainous
• Japan is poor in natural resources and flat arable land. it depends on imports, for example, for 99.5% of its petroleum
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Population127,704,000
(2008)
Population Density (per km sq.) 336.1
Population, share of 0-14 years 13.6%
Population, share of 15-64 years 65.3%
Population, share of 65 and over 21.0%
Sex ratio, number of males per 100 female 95.9
Total fertility rate 1.37 (2009)
Death rate (number of deaths per 1000 population
9.54 (2009)
Infant mortality rate (number of deaths per 1000 live births)
2.79 (2009)
Life expectancy at birth (total population) 82.12 (2009)
Life expectancy at birth (male)78.8
(2009)53
Life expectancy at birth (female) 85.62 (2009)
Net migration rate (number of migrants per 1000 population)
0.00Various Social Statistics
(2008 -9)http://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/handbook/c02cont.htm#cha2_1
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Nikkei – Last 5 years
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10
PACIFIC Exchange Rate Service
http://fx.sauder.ubc.ca/plot.html
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Japan GDP Growth Rate
12
Some Other Interesting Facts
• Japan now has a far higher percentage of single women between the ages of 20 to 40 than the United States--higher than almost anywhere in the world except Scandinavia.
• 80% to 90% of single Japanese women live with their parents, as do about half of the men in their 20s. Most pay little or no rent and do no housework.
• One sociologist estimates that Japan has 10 million "parasite singles"--roughly equal to the entire population of Greece.
Q1. What are the economic factors that affect these facts?
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14
THE “BUBBLE” ECONOMY
Bubble Economy (How “Bubbly” Was It?)1985 -1990
• Asset Price Inflation– Stocks - Nikkei hit high of 38,915 on Dec. 31 1989. Keep in mind it
did not hit 10,000 until after 1985. – Land and Real Estate Prices – Prices more than doubled from 1987 to
1990.– Real Estate inflation more pronounced in larger cites
• Consumer prices not significantly affected• Rapid economic growth
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16
Land Prices
Japanese Urban Real Estate Pricesvs Consumer Price Index Inflation
CPI (inflation)
Commercial Real Estate—6 largest cities—
18 years!
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Japanese Foreign Investment Expands
• Matsushita Group (Panasonic) > Universal Studio• Sony Group > Columbia Pictures• Mitsubishi Estate Group ->Rockefeller Center and
Pebble Beach Q. What happened to these investments?
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Looking at the Causes of the Bubble
• Background– Strong growth in 1980’s and stronger consumer
confidence– Financial Deregulation throughout 1980’s.– End of deficit spending by government – Main-bank relationships– Problem with trade deficits (led to Plaza Accord)– Expansionary monetary policy to counter Plaza Accord– Management poised for strong growth– Reaganomics (high interest rates in US)– Belief that Japan was becoming an economic superpower
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The Low Cost of Borrowing• Interest rates were effectively 0%• Firms over borrowed
• Projects that earned a mere 0% were approved
• Banks over lent• Collateral or track records were enough – expectation that
asset prices would always rise
• Asset prices proved unrealistic• Projects didn’t earn 0% ex post • Banks eventually, however couldn’t collect on their loans
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Proportion of Loans to Small Firms
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
Year21
Proportion of Loans to Real Estate Developers
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12
0.14
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
Year
22
23
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
6.00%
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83
/10
/22
19
84
/4/2
2
19
84
/10
/22
19
85
/4/2
2
19
85
/10
/22
19
86
/4/2
2
19
86
/10
/22
19
87
/4/2
2
19
87
/10
/22
19
88
/4/2
2
19
88
/10
/22
19
89
/4/2
2
19
89
/10
/22
19
90
/4/2
2
19
90
/10
/22
19
91
/4/2
2
19
91
/10
/22
19
92
/4/2
2
19
92
/10
/22
19
93
/4/2
2
19
93
/10
/22
19
94
/4/2
2
19
94
/10
/22
19
95
/4/2
2
19
95
/10
/22
19
96
/4/2
2
19
96
/10
/22
19
97
/4/2
2
19
97
/10
/22
19
98
/4/2
2
19
98
/10
/22
19
99
/4/2
2
19
99
/10
/22
20
00
/4/2
2
20
00
/10
/22
BOJ Discount Rate Target Call Rate
Nov 1, 1986following
"Plaza Accord"
Feb 23, 1987
May 31, 1989first anti-"Bubble"
rate hike
Aug 30, 1990
Jul 1, 1991interest rates
kept high for 18months following
the "bubble's" peak
Sept 8, 19950.5%
discount rate!!
Feb 12, 1999"Zero InterestRate Policy"commences
Christmas 1989rate hike
– "bubble" peaks –
Money Supply
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Other Causes of the Bubble
Malfunctioned “Safety Net”Bank of Japan (BOJ)Ministry of Finance (MOF)“Discretionary Guidance”
Inefficient Monitoring of Banking System
Some Reinforcing Factors
Cross-holding share in Keiretsu system
Expansion of real estate companies (Jusen)
Prolonged Aftermath• Impacts
– Longest recession in post-war period.– Non-performing Loans– Major Bank Failure and Merges
• Causes of prolonged slowdown
– Delay in recognizing problems and in responses– Uncoordinated Actions
• Covered Problems– Overprotected banks– Inefficient corporate governance and structure
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Today’s Dilemmas
• Monetary policy doesn’t work– Interest rates can’t be pushed below 0%– But prices are falling ==> real rates are positive
• Banks (rightly) fear bad assets– Outstanding loans are shrinking– Little investment – “Liquidity Trap”
• Fiscal policy is not working– Large government deficits
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- 5
0
5
10
81828384858687888990919293949596979899000102030405060708
Percent
Bubble
Real GDP
Nominal GDP
Industrial Production
Shaded areas are recession periods
Production
Inventory
After the bubble, economy looked up in 1996-97, 2000 & 2003-07.
But economy fell again in 2008-09 due to declining global demand.
GDP
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Japan’s Lost Decade (early 1990s-early 2000s):
Why Did the Recession Last So Long?
• Long adjustment after a large asset bubble• Non-performing loans (late policy response)• Japan’s economic system became obsolete (?)• Aging population and associated problems (pension,
medical care, dissaving, etc)• Snowballing fiscal debt• People’s lack of confidence in the future• The China challenge (vs. “return to Japan”) Lack of political leadership to propose solutions, convince
people, and implement actions
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Non performing loans--Credit crunch and mini bank runs in 1997-1998--Slow policy response (1998-2000)—creating special agencies and public
money injection for bank recapitalization
Monetary policy for recovery--Injecting liquidity by buying up unconventional assets (corporate &
bank bonds, etc): but the monetary transmission mechanism was broken (MBMoneyLending)
--Zero interest rate policy (Feb.1999-Aug.2000; Mar.2001-Jul.2006; Dec.2008-) creating incentive for “yen carry trade”
--Inflation targeting—debated but not adopted--F/X intervention to prevent yen appreciation (but without aggressive
yen depreciation)
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Policy Issues for the Bank of Japan
- 30
- 20
- 10
0
10
20
30
40
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Monetary base
Money supply (M2)
Bank lending
Percent
0123456789
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
%
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Call rate (interbank short-term interest rate)
Money & bank lending
Bubble Zerointerest
ratepolicy
Excess reserves are built up during zero interest rate periods
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
32
0200400600800
100012001400160018002000
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
USD billion
J apan
China
-15.00
-10.00
-5.00
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
Jan-80 Jan-83 Jan-86 Jan-89 Jan-92 Jan-95 Jan-98 Jan-01 Jan-04 Jan-07
Perc
en
t
Yen/USD International Reserves
Monthly Changes in International Reserves(Proxy for F/X intervention)
Source: McKinnon (2007)
Buy Dollar (resist yen appreciation)
Sell Dollar (resist yen depreciation)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
180%
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
168%
Debate on Fiscal Stimuli• During the 1990s, large fiscal spending was used to stimulate
the economy. But there was no strong recovery, while the government debt skyrocketed.
• Some argued for even bigger stimuli; others said that would only worsen the situation.
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Government debt in % of GDP
Bubble burst
• PM Koizumi (2001-06) set limits on spending (infrastructure, welfare).
• PM Aso (2008-) returned to big fiscal spending to combat recession.
Koizumi Abe Fukuda Aso
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From Recovery to Another Recession?Main causes of recovery (2003-2007)--Strong foreign demand (US, China)--Decade-long corporate restructuring effort--Yen depreciation (up to 2007) Recovery was not mainly due to reforms or good macro policies
Global financial crisis (late 2008-2009)• Traditional industrial exports (cars, electronics) which led recovery
suddenly lost export markets.
Remaining issues• Agriculture, services, distribution, finance remain uncompetitive.• Long-term problems remain unsolved - fiscal crisis, pension & medical
reforms, aged but vibrant society, new energy…)• Koizumi deregulation & liberalization increased income gaps and created
new poor).
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Politics: The End of the 1955 Regime
• The last three LDP governments (Abe, Fukuda, Aso) have been weak and unpopular.
• The opposition (Democratic Party) is not very popular or effective either.
• In July 2007 election, opposition seized majority in the Upper House--“twisted politics” causes confrontation and slowdown
• In Aug/Sep 2009 election, LDP loses
36
LDP dominance based on rural
expenditure and support
Two party politicswith clear policy choice
for voters
?
Recent Prime Ministers of Japan
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April 26, 2001 – September 26, 2006
Junichiro Koizumi
September 26, 2006 – September 26, 2007
Shinzo Abe
September 26, 2007 – September 24, 2008
Yasuo Fukuda
September 24, 2008 – (September 16, 2009)
Taro Aso
(September 16, 2009 –) Yukio Hatoyama
Photos from the Cabinet Office, and the Democratic Party of Japan
New Administration’s view on Japan-US relations
• Japan-US Security Alliance in place since 1951• Mr. Hatoyama assured President Obama that
Japan-US alliance is the foundation of our foreign policy
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copyright: AFP/Kazuhiro Nogi
What do Japanese people think about current US-Japan relations?
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Cabinet Office, Government of Japan
%
Social Issues -Total Fertility Rate
40
Population in Japan by age Unit: 10 thousand
41
42
43
Possible Scenarios of Population Change in Japan
Citizens' Welfare Cost and Tax Burden (%)
44
45
Type of Employment
Statistic Bureau,Ministry of Internal Affairs & Communications
A little Japanese
“Free” + “arubaito” [ger. arbeit]
=Furiitaa or “Freeter”
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Freeter Job Attributes
• Limited or flexible hours• Little Responsibility• Low Paying• Few or no job benefits• No long-term commitment• Undemanding work
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Freeter Negative Impacts on Society
• Workforce with undeveloped potential• Low contributions to taxes, pension system• Increase poverty/homelessness• Lack of independence• Looming labor shortage• Depressed birthrate
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