the end of the post-cold war liberal consensus conflict, governance, and poverty

The end of the post-Cold War liberal consensus

Conflict, governance, and poverty

I. The liberal consensus

II. Trends in conflict and governance

III. The consensus in crisis?

IV. Beyond the consensus

1990 – 2010 post-Cold War liberal consensus

1990 – 2010 post-Cold War liberal consensus

• Stability

• Resources

• Time

1990 – 2010 post-Cold War liberal consensusPersonnel contributions to UN peacekeeping, 1990-2013

UN

IFO

RM

ED

PER

SO

NN

EL C

ON

TR

IBU

TIO

NS

1990 – 2010 post-Cold War liberal consensusCountry Programmable Aid to fragile states 2000 – 2011

CP

A in

mill

ions

of

US

D

1990 – 2010 post-Cold War liberal consensusFastest 20 reformers’ progress in institutional transformation

Source: Pritchett and de Weijer 2010

1990 – 2010 post-Cold War liberal consensusTheory of change: fragility to functioning state,15-30 years

Trends in conflict and governance

Trends in conflict and governanceGlobal trends in armed conflict, 1946 - 2013

Source: CSP 2014

Trends in conflict and governanceGlobal trends in governance, 1946-2013

Source: CSP 2014

• Residual conflict: The human security challenge

I. Largest driver of poverty

II. Globally networked

III. Increasingly criminalised

IV. Hard to escape

V. Hard to predict

Trends in conflict and governance

Source: WDR 2011

For every 3 years a country is affected by major violence, poverty reduction lags behind by 2.7%.

Trends in conflict and governanceResidual Conflict: Largest driver of poverty

Povert

y h

ead

cou

nt

(% o

f p

op

ula

tion

liv

ing

belo

w $

1

.25

a d

ay)

Countries affected by major violence Countries affected by minor violenceCountries with negligible or no violence


Until the early 1990’s, per capita incomes and growth in Burkina Faso and Burundi were similar. Following massive violence in Burundi, their growth paths diverged.

Burundi has lost nearly two decades of income growth, with incomes set back to the 1970’s level.

Source: WDR 2011


Source: The Brookings Institution

Trends in conflict and governanceResidual Conflict: Globally networked


Sources: http://unama.unmissions.org/LinkClick.aspx?fileticket=K0B5RL2XYcU%3D; http://icasualties.org/oef/;http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/programs/foreign%20policy/afghanistan%20index/index20130827.pdf;

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

2489

31013343

4167

4724

6656

Afghanistan (civilian, police and military deaths)


Sources: Justice in Mexico; UNAMA; The Brookings Institution

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

2826

6837

9614

15273

16800

12903(projection)

24893101 3343

41674724

6656

Mexico (Organized Crime Related Killings)Afghanistan (civilian, police and military deaths)

Polity and the Onset of Instability, 1955-2006

Trends in conflict and governanceResidual conflict: hard to escape

Source: CSP 2014

Polity and the Onset of Instability, 1955-2006

Trends in conflict and governanceResidual conflict: hard to predict

Source: CSP 2014

Annual deaths from political violence, 1946 – 2013

The consensus in crisis?

The consensus in crisis? Global trends in armed conflict, 1946 – 2014

Source: CSP 2014

*

Source: CSP 2014* 2014 Estimates

The consensus in crisis? Global trends in governance, 1946-2014

Source: CSP 2014

* 2014 Estimates

*

*

• South Sudan • Libya

The consensus in crisis?

• Afghanistan

• Iraq

From systems failure to a new dictum? Beyond the consensus

• (F)utility of force

Beyond the consensus

The last combat brigade leaves Iraq, 2010

• Retreat from universal norms


• Return of illiberalism – Egypt

– Thailand


• Inclusion – Philippines v. Bosnia

– Kenya v. South Sudan

• “Good Enough” states – Rwanda

– Fiji

• Containment

What can be salvaged?

the end of the post-cold war liberal consensus conflict, governance, and poverty

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