the political ad wars: navigating a turbulant airscape
TRANSCRIPT
© Kantar Media
The Political Ad WarsNavigating a Turbulent Airscape
With CRO Jon Swallen & SVP of Political Advertising Elizabeth Wilner
Huge overlap between competitive presidential and statewide markets
2016 Market Madness
8 of 10 presidential battlegrounds have a competitive Senate race, governor’s race, or both:
• Colorado
• Florida
• Nevada
• New Hampshire
• North Carolina
• Ohio
• Pennsylvania
• Wisconsin
Trifecta States
Trifecta States
New Hampshire (Boston) Toss-Up Senate race + open, Toss-
Up governor’s race (Sept primary)
North Carolina Lean R Senate race +
Toss-Up governor’s race
Ohio Lean R Senate race + open, Toss-Up
WV governor’s race (southern Ohio)
Twofer States
Twofer States
Colorado (+ Albuquerque) Lean D Senate race
Florida Toss-Up Senate race
(two open Aug 30 primaries)
Iowa Likely R Senate race
(SCOTUS)
Nevada Toss-Up Senate Race
Pennsylvania Lean R Senate race
(contested D April 26 primary)
Wisconsin Toss-Up Senate race
Virginia (DC) Likely D but open Senate Race
in MD
Hot Downballot Markets
Hot Markets
Los Angeles, San Francisco, Sacto Senate race + ballot measures
St. Louis Likely R Senate race +
Toss-Up governor’s race
Indianapolis Likely R but open Senate race
(contested R May 3 primary)
A Trump Ticket Could…
Nudge several
battleground/historically
Dem states to GOP due to
white male populations in
Iowa, Michigan, New
Hampshire, Ohio,
Pennsylvania, Wisconsin
Nudge some
battleground/historically
GOP states to
Democrats due to
minority populations in
Arizona, Colorado,
Georgia, Nevada
Bolster GOP efforts to
keep the Senate,
ratcheting up advertising
in competitive Senate
races
Summer/Fall 2016 Outlook
By the week of November 30, 2015 Political’s
share of ad time is approaching 10%
November 30, 2015
Case study: Ramp-up to Iowa and New Hampshire
Political share of ad time averages 6% during summer
months in IOWA broadcast markets
And starts growing rapidly the start of the new year
January 4, 2016: nearly 20%
January 11, 2016: 17% to 25%
January 18, 2016: 25% to 37%
January 25, 2016
With political shares reaching 53% in CEDAR RAPIDS
the week before the Iowa caucuses
Across these IOWA markets, Political’s share of total ad
time was 45% leading up to the caucuses
A 38 percentage-point
increase in just 8 weeks
September 14, 2015
By mid-September 2015, political share of total ad time in
MANCHESTER, NH is already at 20%
November 30, 2015
And by the end of November, political share of total ad
time in MANCHESTER, NH is approaching 30%
January 4, 2016
With political activity on Boston, MA
stations growing at a slower pace
Going into the new year, political share of total ad time
continues to grow in MANCHESTER, NH
February 1, 2016
Political share of total ad time in MANCHESTER, NH
reaches 56% in the week leading up to the state primary
Boston broadcast stations follow a
similar pattern, though activity is lower
Political’s share of total ad time on WMUR, Boston
stations peaks at 56% and 15%
Promos &
PSAs
Medical Svcs.
& Supplies
Automotive
All other paid ads
Telecom
Retail
IOWA: As political’s share increases, key non-political
categories see share plunge
Promos &
PSAs
Medical Svcs.
& Supplies
Automotive
All other paid ads
Telecom
Retail
NEW HAMPSHIRE: As political’s share increases, key
non-political categories see share plunge
Messaging Muddle
Top messages in advertising, by spend:
Presidential:
1. Foreign policy/terrorism
2. Healthcare
3. Social issues (women's issues,
abortion, civil rights, gay marriage,
drugs)
4. Taxes (corporate loopholes)
US Senate:
1. Energy/environment
2. Jobs/unemployment
3. Budget/government spending
4. Environment: Global warming
Harsh Climate for Companies
“Wall Street, drug companies,
insurance companies, big oil
companies”“I’ll never eat Oreos again”
Brand Bashing
Unprecedented attacks on individual brands for being on the wrong side of
regular people:
• Goldman Sachs
• Johnson Controls (getting help from
auto bailout, then offshoring)
• McDermott (offshoring)
• Medtronic (offshoring)
• Tyco (offshoring)
• Valeant (predatory pricing)
• Weatherford (offshoring)
A Busy Political Calendar Ahead
24 states w/primaries or caucuses during Q2
November elections
• President
• 33 US Senate seats
• 435 US House seats
• 12 state governors
• Down ballot races
Supreme Court Justice nomination
A Busy Political Calendar Ahead
24 states w/primaries or caucuses during Q2
November elections
• President
• 33 US Senate seats
• 435 US House seats
• 12 state governors
• Down ballot races
Supreme Court Justice nomination
House Senate Governor
Toss Up 22 5 4
Leaning 18 4 --
Ratings As of 3/18/16
Source: The cook Political Report
The Effect of Political Ad Volume On Other Categories & Advertisers
A Disruptive Force
Political advertising disrupts spot TV marketplaces
Finite inventory – a zero sum game
Impact on other ad categories? Who gets displaced? Timing?
Adaptive strategies
Spot TV Markets Analyzed
WK M T W TH F SA SU WK M T W TH F SA SU
26 25 26 27 28 29 30 1
J 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 J 27 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
A 2 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 U 28 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
N 3 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 L 29 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
4 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 23 24 25 26 27 28 29
F 5 30 31 1 2 3 4 5 A 31 30 31 1 2 3 4 5
E 6 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 U 32 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
B 7 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 G 33 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
8 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 34 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
M 9 27 28 29 1 2 3 4 35 27 28 29 30 31 1 2
A 10 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 S 36 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
R 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 E 37 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
12 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 P 38 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
13 26 27 28 29 30 31 1 39 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
A 14 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 O 40 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
P 15 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 C 41 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
R 16 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 T 42 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
17 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 43 22 23 24 25 26 27 28
M 18 30 1 2 3 4 5 6 N 44 29 30 31 1 2 3 4
A 19 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 O
Y 20 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 V
21 21 22 23 24 25 26 27
J 22 28 29 30 31 1 2 3
U 23 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
N 24 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
25 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
2012 2012
WK M T W TH F SA SU WK M T W TH F SA SU
J 1 30 31 1 2 3 4 5 J 27 30 1 2 3 4 5 6
A 2 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 U 28 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
N 3 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 L 29 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
4 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 30 21 22 23 24 25 26 27
F 5 27 28 29 30 31 1 2 A 31 28 29 30 31 1 2 3
E 6 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 U 32 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
B 7 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 G 33 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
8 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 34 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
9 24 25 26 27 28 1 2 35 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
M 10 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 S 36 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
A 11 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 E 37 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
R 12 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 P 38 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
13 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 39 22 23 24 25 26 27 28
A 14 31 1 2 3 4 5 6 O 40 29 30 1 2 3 4 5
P 15 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 C 41 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
R 16 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 T 42 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
17 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 43 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
M 18 28 29 30 1 2 3 4 N 44 27 28 29 30 31 1 2
A 19 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 O
Y 20 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 V
21 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
22 26 27 28 29 30 31 1
J 23 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
U 24 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
N 25 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
26 23 24 25 26 27 28 29
2014 2014
20%
10%
6%
8%
23%
21%
19%
15%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
Wash DC
Raleigh
Philadelphia
Miami
Las Vegas
Gr Rapids
Denver
Cincinnatti
Political Share Of Ad Time: 2012
Wks 1-30 Wks 31-44
5%
10%
5%
7%
8%
23%
21%
9%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
Wash DC
Raleigh
Philadelphia
Miami
Las Vegas
Gr Rapids
Denver
Cincinnatti
Political Share Of Ad Time: 2014
Wks 1-30 Wks 31-44
Note: Weeks 31-44 cover the period from August 1 to Election Day
Major Spot TV Ad Categories
Politics Auto Retail Telecom
Medical Services Restaurants All Other Paid Promos/PSAs
Category Share of Market Ad Time
Politics
Share
Pol-
itics
Auto Retail Tele-
com
Medical
Svcs
Restaur-
ants
All Other
Paid Ads
Promo
/PSAs
Total
< 2% 0.5% 13.0% 10.4% 8.3% 4.4% 3.8% 39.7% 20.0% 100.0%
2-5% 4.2% 11.7% 9.7% 8.8% 3.8% 4.4% 38.1% 19.3% 100.0%
5-10%
10-15%
15-25%
>25%
Analytic Method – Category Share of Spot TV Ad Time
How To Read: In weeks when political share of total market ad time
is less than 2%, auto category share of ad time averages 13.0%
Promos &
PSAs
Medical Svcs.
& Supplies
Automotive
All other paid ads
TelecomRetail
Political
% Share Ratio of TV Ad Time: Political vs Other Categories
2012 & 2014, Weeks 1-44, All 8 Markets Combined
Category Share Ratio of Market Ad Time
Politics
Share
Auto Retail Tele-
com
Medical
Svcs
Restaur-
ants
All Other
Paid Ads
Promo/
PSAs
< 2% 13.0% 10.4% 8.3% 4.4% 3.8% 39.7% 20.0%
Ratio 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
2-5% .90 .93 1.06 .86 1.16 .96 .98
5-10%
10-15%
15-25%
>25%
Category Share Ratio Reveals The Rate of Erosion
How To Read: In weeks when political share of total
market ad time is between 2% and 5%, auto category
share of ad time falls to 90% of its baseline norm
Promos & PSAs
Medical Svcs.
& Supplies
Automotive
All other paid ads
Telecom
Retail
Share Ratio of TV Ad Time: Political vs Other Categories
2012 & 2014, Weeks 1-44, All 8 Markets Combined
Fewer Auto Ads….But Steady # of Auto Advertisers
Market: Las Vegas
Period: 4th week of each
month in 2014
Insights:
• Auto advertising is
cyclical and peaks at
end of each month
• As auto category
share begins to
decline, the # of auto
advertisers holds
steady
• Auto advertisers are
staying on air, but
buying less time0
15
30
45
60
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3/24 4/21 5/26 6/23 7/21 8/25 9/22 10/20 10/27
# o
f Au
to A
dve
rtise
rs% S
ha
re o
f A
d T
ime
Political Share
Auto Share
# of Auto Advertisers
Telecom – Similar Pattern
Market: Denver
Period: 2014
Category: Telecom
July 28 – Labor Day
• Category share = 7%
• 21-23 advertisers/wk
• Avg advertiser runs 72 :30s per week
Sept 22 - Election Day
• Category share = 3%
• 16-20 advertisers/wk
• Avg advertiser runs 37 :30s per week
0
5
10
15
20
25
0%
8%
16%
24%
32%
40%
# o
f Te
lec
om
Ad
ve
rtise
rs
% S
ha
re o
f A
d T
ime
Political
Share
Telecom
Share
# of Telecom
Advertisers
Programming Preferences
Auto & Political Compete For Local News Avails
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
% Of Category Ad Time in Local News: 2014
POLITICAL
AUTO
• Cincinnati
• Denver
• Grand Rapids
• Las Vegas
• Miami
• Philadelphia
• Raleigh
• Washington, DC
The preference for news programming leads political
advertisers to network affiliate stations
Market
Total # of
Stations
Monitored
% of All Ad
Time on
A/C/F/N
% of Political
Ad Time on
A/C/F/N
Cincinnati 6 66% 93%
Denver 10 49% 73%
Grand Rapids 6 98% 100%
Las Vegas 8 58% 92%
Miami 13 41% 63%
Philadelphia 7 58% 90%
Raleigh 7 60% 90%
Washington DC 9 52% 92%
• Period: Jan-Oct ‘14
• Spanish-language
news programming
is also targeted by
political advertisers
ADPATIVE STRATEGIES
• Displaced TV advertisers can be a sales opportunity for other media
• Some TV advertisers shift weight to other media, some don’t
0
25
50
75
100
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
# :3
0 P
er W
k
Po
liti
ca
l T
V S
ha
re
Political TV Share # Spot TV :30s # Radio :30s
Papa John’s Pizza – Denver – Sept/Oct 2014
When TV weight is reduced, Local Radio support is increased
ADPATIVE STRATEGIES
• Displaced TV advertisers can be a sales opportunity for other media
• Some TV advertisers shift weight to other media, some don’t
Marshall’s– Las Vegas – Sept/Oct 2014
Marshall’s had no measured activity in Las Vegas in
either Radio, Newspaper or Digital during Sept/Oct 2014
0
5
10
15
20
25
0%
7%
14%
21%
28%
35%
# :3
0 P
er W
k
Po
lit
TV
Sh
are
Political TV Share # Spot TV :30s
Source of Business Analysis
The analytic approach that we’ve used can:
• Be applied to individual markets
and stations
• Compare periods of heavy vs.
light political activity
• Identify ‘at risk’ categories and
advertisers
• For non-TV media, assess
opportunities to gain business
from TV advertisers during peak
political periods
Questions?
Jon Swallen, Chief Research Officer
212.991.6110
Elizabeth Wilner, Senior Vice President for
Political Advertising
202.238.3730