town and regional planning stads- en …

TOWN AND REGIONAL PLANNING

Special edition in collaboration with SACPLAN: Building resilient cities and communities in the face of climate change

Spesiale uitgawe in samewerking met SACPLAN: Die bou van veerkragtige stede en gemeenskappe in die lig van klimaatsverandering

Khatiso e ikhethileng ka kopanelo le SACPLAN: Ho aha litoropo le sechaba se ikemiselitseng ho tobana le phetoho ea maemo a leholimo

STADS- EN STREEKBEPLANNINGMERALO YA DITOROPO LE MABATOWA

No 77 | December 2020

Editor • RedakteurProf. Maléne Campbell

University of the Free State • Universiteit van die VrystaatGuest editor • Gasredakteur

Dr Hangwelani Hope MagidimishaSACPLAN

Editorial associates • Redaksionele medewerkers Prof. Juanee Cilliers

North-West University • Universiteit van Noord-WesProf. Ernst Drewes

North-West University • Universiteit van Noord-WesDr James Chakwizira

University of Venda • Universiteit van Venda Me Alna Beukes

University of the Free State • Universiteit van die Vrystaat

Editorial board • Redaksionele raadProf. Erns t Drewes (Chairman) (Urban and Regional Planning, North-West University, Potchefstroom, South Africa)Dr Mbiba Beacon (Department of Urban Planning, Oxford Brookes University, United Kingdom)Prof. Guy Baeten (Department of Human Geography, Lund University, Sweden)Dr Dawie Bos (Director Maxim Planning Solutions, Rustenburg, South Africa)Dr James Chakwizira (Department of Urban and Regional Planning, University of Venda, South Africa)Mr Mbulelo Dala (Town and Regional Planner, Network Planning Department, Eskom, South Africa)Prof. Matthews Dayomi (Matt Vista Consultants, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa)Mr Herman Geyer (CRUISE, Department of Geography and Environmental Studies, Stellenbosch University, South Africa)Prof. Manie Geyer (CRUISE, Department of Geography and Environmental Studies, Stellenbosch University, South Africa)Ms Theresa Gordon (Department of Town and Regional Planning, Durban University of Technology, South Africa)Dr Madina Junussova (Research Fellow, Institute of Public Policy and Administration, University of Central Asia, Tekeli, Kazakhstan)Mr Martin Lewis (Chief Executive Officer of the South African Council for Planners, South Africa)Mr Johan Maritz (GISc practitioner / Town and Regional Planner Built Environment, CSIR, South Africa)Ms Anneke Muller (School of Public Management, University of Stellenbosch, South Africa)Mr George Onatu (Department of Town and Regional Planning, University of Johannesburg, South Africa)Prof. Mark Oranje (Department of Town and Regional Planning, University of Pretoria, South Africa)Dr Nick Schuermans (Department of Geography, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Belgium)Prof. Fana Sihlongonyane (School of Architecture and Planning, University of the Witwatersrand, South Africa)Dr Susan Speak (School of Architecture Planning and Landscape, Newcastle University, United Kingdom)Mr Thomas Stewart (Department of Town and Regional planning, University of the Free State, South Africa)Prof. Georgia Watson (Director of OISD: Urban Design Group, Oxford Brookes University Oxford, United Kingdom)

Panel of referees for this edition • Keurders vir hierdie uitgawe Dr Dawie Bos (Director Maxim Planning Solutions, Rustenburg, South Africa) Dr Brian Boshoff (Architecture and Planning, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa)Dr James Chakwizira (Urban and Regional Planning, University of Venda, South Africa)Dr Lovemore Chipungu (Housing, University of University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa)Prof. Innocent Chirisa (Rural and Urban Planning, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe) Dr Danie du Plessis (Director, Centre for Regional and Urban Innovation and Statistical Exploration, Stellenbosch University, South Africa)Mr Albert Ferreira (Professional planner, City of Cape Town, South Africa)Prof. Trynos Gumbo (Town and Regional Planning, University of Johannesburg, South Africa) Prof. Philip Harrison (Architecture and Planning, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa)Mr Martin Lewis (South African Council for Planners, Johannesburg, South Africa)Mr Marius Marais (Geography and Environmental Studies, University of Limpopo, Sovenga, South Africa)Prof. Mtafu Manda (Built Environment, Mzuzu University, Mzuzu, Malawi)Dr Abraham Matamanda (Postdoctoral fellow, Department of Urban and Regional Planning, University of the Free State, Bloemfontein, South Africa)Dr Masilonyane Mokhele (Town and Regional Planning, Cape Peninsula University, Cape Town, South Africa)Mr Darren Nel (Professional Planners, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China)Prof. Verna Nel (Urban and Regional Planning, University of the Free State, Bloemfontein, South Africa)Dr Calvin Nengomasha (Built Environment and Development Studies, University of University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa)Dr Ayobami Popoola (Built Environment and Development Studies, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa)Prof. Ivan Turok (Economic Performance and Development, Human Sciences Research Council, Pretoria, South Africa)Dr Elsona van Huyssteen (Built Environment, Council for Scientific and Industrial Research, Pretoria, South Africa)Erna van Zyl (Chief town and regional planner, Department of Rural Development and Land Reform, Western Cape Province, Cape Town, South Africa) Mr Khetha Zulu (Development Planning Services, Ray Nkonyeni Municipality Port Shepstone, South Africa)

No 77December 2020

Town and Regional PlanningStads- en Streekbeplanning

Meralo ya Ditoropo le Mabatowa

Published by the Department of Urban and Regional Planning, University of the Free State, Bloemfontein, South AfricaUitgegee deur die Departement van Stads- en Streekbeplanning, Universiteit van die Vrystaat, Bloemfontein, Suid-AfrikaE phatlalatswa ke Lefapha la Meralo ya Ditoropo le Mabatowa, Yunivesithing ya Freistata, Bloemfontein, Africa Borwa

Sesotho translation: Ms Lucia Leboto Sesotho vertalings: Me. Lucia Leboto

Contents • Inhoudsopgawe

Editoral • Redakteursbrief • Lengolo la phatlalatso Hangwelani Hope Magidimisha iii

Articles on resilience • Artikels oor veerkragtigheid

Regional resilience in peripheral South Africa: Mariske van Aswegen, 1 The Northern Cape case Francois Pieter Retief Ernst Drewes Scoping the nexus between climate change and Patrick Hosea 18 water-security realities in rural South Africa Ernest KhalemaReflections on how the implementation of sustainable P.J. Geraghty 31 development goals across the UK and Ireland can influence the mainstreaming of these goals in English planning practiceBuilding resilience to climate change in vulnerable communities: Anele Mthembu 42 A case study of uMkhanyakude district municipality Syathokoza HlopheTrends in urban planning, climate adaptation Garth Myers 57 and resilience in Zanzibar, Tanzania Jonathan Walz Aboud JumbeLand use land cover change and land surface Oluwasinaayomi Kasim 71 emissivity in Ibadan, Nigeria Samuel Agbola Michael OweniweBuilding a food-resilient city through urban agriculture: Akeem Ola 89 The case of Ilorin, NigeriaIntroducing the Green Book: A practical planning tool Willemien van Niekerk 103 for adapting South African settlements to climate change Amy Pieterse Alize le Roux

Articles • Artikels

Structuring South Africa’s national economic space: André Brand 120 A regional corridor network model approach Ernst DrewesMulti-stakeholder perspectives on approaches for addressing Lindelwa Sinxadi 137 the incidence of urban public open space encroachment: Bankole Awuzie The case of Freedom Square, Bloemfontein Maléne Campbell

Book review • Boekresensie

Gone to ground: A history of environment and Prof. Naòmi Morgan 149 infrastructure in Dar es Salaam

Notes for authors • Inligting aan outeurs

Published by: Department of Urban and Regional Planning University of the Free State PO Box 339 Bloemfontein 9300

[email protected]

ISSN 1012-280 (Print) ISSN 2415-0495 (Online) DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.18820/2415-0495/trp77

© 2020 Creative Commons With Attribution (CC-BY)

Layout & Design: SUN MeDIA Bloemfontein

Translations of abstracts: Ms Lucia Leboto

Uitgegee deur: Departement Stads- en Streekbeplanning

Universiteit van die Vrystaat Posbus 339

Bloemfontein 9300

[email protected]

ISSN 1012-280 (Print) ISSN 2415-0495 (Aanlyn)

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.18820/2415-0495/trp77

© 2020 Creative Commons With Attribution (CC-BY)

Uitleg: SUN MeDIA Bloemfontein

Vertalings van abstrakte: Ms Lucia Leboto

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.18820/2415-0495/trp77i1.Editorial iii

Van die gasredakteur:Hangwelani Hope Magidimisha1

’n Aanduiding van klimaatsverandering is alomteenwoordig. Stede en gemeenskappe in Suid-Afrika en Afrika in groter mate is toenemend vatbaar vir die negatiewe aspekte van klimaatsverandering, wat na verwagting sal toeneem in frekwensie en intensiteit met uiterste gebeure soos oorstromings, droogte, waterstremming, seevlakstyging, hittegolwe en storms, wat die hoogste is op die lys van blootstelling aan ekonomiese en sosiale risiko’s in stede (World Bank, 2019). Terselfdertyd kan sosio-ekonomiese en demografiese ontwikkelings stede en gemeenskappe kwesbaarder maak. Dit het diepgaande gevolge vir ’n wye verskeidenheid stads- en gemeenskapsfunksies, infrastruktuur en dienste soos energie, vervoer, water, sanitasie en gesondheid, en dit sal lewensgehalte beïnvloed. Die National Climate Change Response (NCCR) skets uitdagings met betrekking tot traagheid en risiko’s wat geskep word deur bestaande investering in infrastruktuur en meganismes van dienslewering wat miskien nie goed aangepas is vir ’n veranderende klimaat nie. In die lig van die voorgenoemde is dit dringend nodig vir stede en gemeenskappe om te belê in langtermynversagting en voorkomende maatreëls om hul veerkragtigheid te verbeter.

In die komende dekades sal die bou van veerkragtigheid noodsaaklik wees vir stedelike en streeksbeleid en ’n slim belegging wees vir lande. Alhoewel baie stede reeds veerkragtigheid begin opbou in reaksie op opkomende bedreigings wat verband hou met klimaatsverandering, is die strategieë wat hulle aanpak, wen-wen-resultate, wat dit gesonder, en aantrekliker maak om sake te doen. Veerkragtigheid as ’n handelsmerk bewys dat die stad bereid is om innovasiekultuur te aanvaar. Suid-Afrika het verskeie stappe gedoen

1 Prof Hangwelani Hope Magidimisha (PhD) SARChI Chair for Inclusive Cities Head for Planning and Housing (UKZN) SACPLAN Board member

From the guest editor: Hangwelani Hope Magidimisha1

Indication of a climatic change is ubiquitous. Cities and communities in both South Africa and Africa are increasingly susceptible to the negative aspects of climate change, which are expected to increase in frequency and intensity, with extreme events such as floods, drought, water stress, rise in sea level, heatwaves and storms, which are highest on the list of exposure to economic and social risks in cities (World Bank, 2019). Concurrently, socio-economic and demographic developments can make cities and communities more vulnerable. These will have profound impacts on a wide range of city and community functions, infrastructure and services such as energy, transport, water, sanitation, and health, and will affect the quality of life. The National Climate Change Response (NCCR) outlines challenges in relation to inertia and risks created by existing investment in infrastructure and mechanisms of service delivery that may not be well adapted to a changing climate. In light of the aforementioned, there is an urgent need for cities and communities to invest in long-term mitigation and preventive measures, in order to improve their resilience.

In the coming decades, building resilience will be an essential urban and regional policy and a smart investment for countries. While many cities are already beginning to build resilience in response to emerging threats associated with climate change, the strategies they are adopting are often win-win results, making them healthier, more attractive places to live in and do business. Resilience is brandable and demonstrates a city’s willingness to embrace innovation culture. South Africa has taken several steps toward addressing climate change; this response has mostly been led at the national level, with some larger metropolitan municipalities (metros) also playing a major role.

1 Prof Hangwelani Hope Magidimisha (PhD) SARChI Chair for Inclusive Cities Head for Planning and Housing (UKZN) SACPLAN Board member

Ho tsoa ho mohlophisi oa moetiHangwelani Hope Magidimisha1

Ponahalo ea phetoho ea maemo a leholimo e fumaneha hohle lefats’e ka bophara. Litoropo le sechaba sa Afrika Boroa le Afrika ka kakaretso li kotsing ea ho angoa hampe ke litlamorao tsa phetoho ea maemo a leholimo, tse lebelletsoeng ho eketseha ka sekhahla, ka liketsahalo tse kang likhohola, komello, khaello ea metsi, ho phahama ha boemo ba leoatle, maqhubu a mocheso le lifefo, e leng tsona tse kaholimo lenaneng la litlamorao tse tla ama moruo le sechaba metseng e meholo (World Bank, 2019). Ka mokhoa e tšoanang, nts’etsopele ea moruo e ka etsa hore litoropo le sechaba li hlaselehe habonolo. Hona ho ka baka litlamorao tse kotsi mesebetsing e mengata ea litoropo le sechaba, meralo ea motheo le lits’ebeletso tse akhang tsa phepelo ea matla, lipalangoang, metsi, tsamaiso ea likhoerekhoere le bophelo bo botle, ‘me li tla ama boleng ba bophelo. Lekhotla la naha le seka-sekanang le phetoho ea maemo a leholimo, eleng National Climate Change Response (NCCR), le hlakisa mathata a bakoang ke khatello le likoluoa tse hlahisitsoeng ke meralo le mekhoa ea phano ea lits’ebeletso e kanna ea se lumellane hantle le maemo a leholimo a fetohang. Ho latela se boletsoeng kaholimo, ho na le tlhoko e potlakileng ea hore litoropo le sechaba li etse matsete a nako e telele a ho fokotsa le ho thibela phetoho ea maemo a leholimo le ho ntlafatsa mamello le tiisetso ea bona maemong ana.

Lilemong tse mashome tse tlang, khaho ea botsitso nakong ea phetoho ea maemo a leholimo e tla ba nthla-kemo ea maano a thero ea litoropo mmoho le matsete a hlalefileng a linaha ka ho fapana.Litoropo tse ngata li se li qalelletse ho aha botsitso ka lebaka la mathata a bakoang ke phetoho ea maemo a leholimo, ‘me maano ao ba a sebelisang hangata ke tlisang thlolo, ka hona ebe libaka tse hohelang bakeng sa bolulo le

1 Mop Hangwelani Hope Magidimisha (PhD) Molula-setulo oa SARChI oa Metse e Kenyelletsang Hlooho ea Moralo le Bolulo (UKZN) SACPLAN Setho sa boto

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om klimaatsverandering aan te spreek; hierdie reaksie is meestal op nasionale vlak gelei, en sommige groter metropolitaanse munisipaliteite (metro’s) speel ook ’n belangrike rol.

Suid-Afrika bekragtig die Verenigde Nasies se raamwerkkonvensie oor klimaatsverandering (UNFCCC) in Augustus 1997 en die Kyoto-protokol in 2002. Suid-Afrika se aanvanklike nasionale mededeling van 2000 aan die UNFCC het pogings in CCA gekataliseer. In 2004 het die land sy eerste nasionale strategie vir klimaatsverandering beantwoord, en die jaar daarna was die land gasheer vir ’n nasionale beraad oor klimaatsverandering wat die werk van wetenskaplikes en beleidmakers geïntegreer het.

In 2011 het Suid-Afrika die seminaarboek oor nasionale reaksie op klimaatsverandering ontwikkel en werk tans aan ’n nasionale aanpassingstrategie (NAS) – internasionaal bekend as ’n nasionale aanpassingsplan (NAP), wat die regering se visie definieer vir doeltreffende reaksie op klimaatsverandering en die oorgang na ’n klimaatbestande, koolstofarm ekonomie. Die Witskrif beskou die plaaslike regering as van kritieke belang om klimaatsweerstandigheid te ontwikkel deur beplanningsontwikkeling (DEA, 2011). Die NAS is bedoel om aanpassingsbeplanning te standaardiseer en te help om sektorale planne in lyn te bring (byvoorbeeld, die Nasionale Klimaatsverandering-plan vir gesondheid en aanpassing 2014-2019 of die huidige konsepstrategie vir die reaksie op klimaatsverandering vir waterbronne). Stedelike gebiede word in samewerking met kus- en landelike nedersettings in die NAS oorweeg, en daar bestaan tans geen spesifieke strategie vir aanpassing in stedelike nedersettings nie (soos dit vir landelike gebiede is en vir kusgebiede beplan).

Die Stads- en Streekbeplanningsjoernaal dra saam met SACPLAN ’n spesiale uitgawe van die Tydskrif in 2020 op om te ondersoek hoe stedelike en streeksbeplanners hierdie doel kan

South Africa ratified the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in August 1997 and the Kyoto Protocol in 2002. South Africa’s 2000 Initial National Communication to the UNFCC catalysed efforts in CCA. In 2004, the country developed its first national climate change response strategy and the following year, it hosted a national climate change summit, integrating the work of scientists and policymakers.

In 2011, South Africa developed the seminal National Climate Change Response White Paper and is currently working on a National Adaptation Strategy (NAS) – known internationally as a National Adaptation Plan (NAP), which defines the government’s vision for effective climate change response and transitioning to a climate-resilient, low-carbon economy. The White Paper views local government as critical in building climate resilience through planning development (DEA, 2011). The NAS is meant to standardize adaptation planning and help align sectoral plans (for example, the National Climate Change Health and Adaptation Plan 2014-2019 or the currently in draft Climate Change Response Strategy for Water Resources). The NAS considers urban areas in conjunction with coastal and rural settlements. No specific strategy currently exists for adaptation in urban settlements (as there is for rural areas and planned for coastal areas).

The Town and Regional Planning Journal, together with SACPLAN, is dedicating a special issue of the Journal in 2020 to explore how urban and regional planners can achieve this goal of building resilient cities and communities.

Van Aswegen, Retief and Drewes argue that regional resilience can be deducted from the working of three regional policy mechanisms in the Northern Cape. They conclude that, “[t]hrough a process of decentralised concentration (utilising the policy instruments) in both regional growth centres (regional level) and growth points (subregional level), the

khoebo, kaha li ts’episa bophelo bo botle. Botsitso maemong a phetoho ea leholimo a bonts’a boikemisetso ba toropo ho amohela setso sa boqapi. Afrika Borwa e nkile mehato e mmalwa ho shebana le phetoho ea leholimo; mehato ena hangata e etelletsoe pele boemong ba naha, ka bomasepala ba bang ba litoropo tse kholo (metros) ele bona ba bapalang karolo e kholo.

Afrika Borwa e ananetse Tumellano ea Moralo oa Matjhaba a Kopaneng ea Phetoho ea Maemo a Leholimo (UNFCCC) ka Phato 1997 le Tumellano ea Kyoto ka 2002. Puisano ea Pele ea Naha ho UNFCC e matlafalitse boiteko ba CCA. Ka 2004, naha e ile ea hlahisa leano la eona la pele la karabelo ea phetoho ea maemo a leholimo ‘me selemong se latelang, e ile ea tšoara seboka sa naha sa phetoho ea maemo a leholimo, se kopanya mosebetsi oa boramahlale le baetsi ba melao. Ka 2011, Afrika Borwa e hlahisitse Leqephe le le Soeu la Karabelo ea Phetoho ea Maemo a Leholimo la Naha mme hajwale le ntse le sebetsa Leanong la Naha la ho Ikamahanya le Maemo a phetoho ea leholimo (NAS) - e tsebahalang machabeng e le Moralo oa Naha oa ho Ikamahanya le maemo (NAP), o hlalosang pono ea mmuso bakeng sa karabelo e sebetsang ea phetoho ea maemo a leholimo le ho fetohela moruong o matlafatsang maemo a leholimo, o hlahisang khase ea carbon e tlase. NAS e reretsoe ho hlophisa moralo oa ho ikamahanya le maemo le ho thusa ho matahanya meralo ea makala (mohlala, Leano la Naha la Bophelo le Phetoho ea Boemo ba Leholimo la 2014-2019 kapa moralo o ts’ebetsong hajoale o tsejoang ka hore ke Morero oa Karabelo ea Phetoho ea Maemo a Leholimo bakeng sa Mehloli ea Metsi). Pampiri e Ts’oeu e nka mmuso wa lehae o le bohlokwa ho aheng boits’oaro ba leholimo ka ho nts’etsapele moralo (DEA, 2011). NAS e shebisisa libaka tsa litoropo ka kopanelo le libaka tsa mabopong le libaka tsa mahaeng. Ha ho leano le ikhethileng hajoale bakeng sa ho ikamahanya le maemo metseng ea litoropo (joalo ka ha ho le teng maano a libaka tsa mahaeng le a reriloeng bakeng sa libaka tse mabopong a leoatle).

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.18820/2415-0495/trp77i1.Editorial v

bereik om veerkragtige stede en gemeenskappe te bou.

Van Aswegen, Retief en Drewes betoog dat streeksweerbaarheid afgetrek kan word van die werking van drie streekbeleidsmeganismes in die Noord-Kaap. Hulle kom tot die gevolgtrekking dat “die weerbaarheidsvermoë van die perifêre streek deur ’n proses van gedesentraliseerde konsentrasie (met behulp van beleidsinstrumente) in beide streeksgroeisentrums (streeksvlak) en groeipunte (substreekvlak) verryk sal word.”2

Hosea en Khalema beweer dat, hoewel die wêreldwye reaksie op klimaatsverandering skaars en ongekoördineerd was, veral met betrekking tot die verskaffing van voldoende waterbronne vir die mees geïmproviseerde, het die waterskaarste in landelike gebiede ’n toenemend verwaarloosde verskynsel geword. Die langtermyn-wanbalans as gevolg van waterbehoefte wat die beskikbare waterbronne oorskry, is in die literatuur geïdentifiseer, met die meeste landelike inwoners wat negatief geraak word deur waterskaarste. Die grootste uitdaging as gevolg van waterskaarste word in die literatuur erken, en gebaseer op die huidige oorsig, is ’n dieper betrokkenheid by kwessies oor ruimtelike beplanning nodig om die gevolge van klimaatsverandering op die watersekuriteit in landelike gebiede verder te verminder en aan te spreek. Verder is hulle van mening dat, hoewel daar beleidsnavorsing bestaan wat die gevolge van klimaatsverandering in landelike gemeenskappe verbind, ’n sterker fokus op die kwaliteit- en kwantiteitskwessies by die implementering van watersekuriteitsaangeleenthede van kritieke belang is. Aangesien landelike gemeenskappe die gevolge van klimaatsverandering hanteer, moet die implementeringsiklusse van watersekuriteitsmaatreëls verseker word, tesame met verdere integrasie van ruimtelike beplanningskwessies in landelike gebiede.

Geraghty ondersoek die praktyk in die Verenigde Koninkryk en Ierland

2 Opsomming deur Prof. Das Steÿn (voormalinge Redakteur).

resilience capacity of the peripheral region will be enriched”.2

Hosea and Khalema contend that, while the global response to climate change has been scant and uncoordinated, especially with regard to providing adequate water resources for the most improvised, water scarcity has become an increasingly neglected phenomenon in rural areas. The long-term imbalance resulting from water demand exceeding available water resources has been identified in the literature, with the majority of rural dwellers negatively affected by water scarcity. The major challenge of water scarcity has been recognised in the literature and, based on the current review, a deeper engagement with spatial planning issues is needed to further mitigate and address the impacts of climate change on water security in rural areas. Furthermore, they posit that, although policy research that links the impacts of climate change in rural communities exists, stronger focus on the quality and quantity issues in the implementation of water security matters is critical. Thus, as rural communities deal with the impacts of climate change, implementation cycles of water security measures need to be ensured along with further integration of spatial planning issues in rural areas.

Geraghty examines practice in the UK and Ireland more generally to reflect on the success of attempts to implement the goals in England. He states that the UK’s implementation of SDGs has been hindered by its governance arrangements and the perspective that they are primarily for developing countries. This has led to a lack of awareness of the existence and relevance of SDGs. An absence of regional governance coupled with years of perma-reform in planning resulting in policy turbulence has further retarded their adoption in England. Devolution has led to a divergence in planning practice across the UK. The approach outside England has been much more proactive. The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are an

2 Summary written by Prof. Das Steÿn (former Editor).

Koranta ea Thero ea Litoropo le Libaka (Town and Regional Planning Journal), hammoho le SACPLAN, li nehelana ka khatiso e khethehileng ea koranta ka 2020 ho hlahloba kamoo ba rerang litoropo le libaka ba ka finyellang sepheo sena sa ho aha litoropo le metse e tsitsitseng.

Van Aswegen, Retief le Drewes ba pheha khang ea hore mamello ea tikoloho e ka nts’uoa mekhoeng e meraro ea ts’ebetsong ea maano a tikoloho Kapa Leboea. Ba phethela ka hore, “ka phethahatso ea ts’ebeliso ea matla (ho ananela lisebelisoa tsa maano) litsing tse peli tsa kholo ea tikoloho (boemong ba lebatooa) le lintlha tsa kholo (subregional level), matla a botsitso ba tikoloho a tla ntlafatsoa”.2

Hosea le Khalema ba pheha khang ea hore, leha karabelo ea lefats’e mabapi le phetoho ea maemo a leholimo e le tlase ebile e sa tsamaellane, haholoholo mabapi le ho fana ka metsi a lekaneng metseng e futsanehileng, khaello ea metsi e se e le ntho e hlokomolohuoang haholo libakeng tsa mahaeng. Lingoliloeng li bots’a ho se lekalekane ha nako e telele ho bakoang ke tlhokeho ea metsi e phahametseng mehloli ea metsi, mme boholo ba baahi ba mahaeng ba anngoe hampe ke khaello ea metsi. Phephetso e kholo ea khaello ea metsi e ananetsoe lithlaiso-leseling mme, ho ipapisitsoe le tlhahlobo ea hajoale, ho hlokahala hore ho be le puisano e tebileng le litaba tsa moralo oa sebaka ho fokotsa le ho sebetsana le litlamorao tsa phetoho ea maemo a leholimo ts’ireletsong ea metsi libakeng tsa mahaeng. Ho feta moo, ba beha hore, leha patlisiso ea maano e hokahanyang litlamorao tsa phetoho ea maemo a leholimo metseng ea mahaeng e le teng, ho tsepamisoa maikutlo ho matla litabeng tsa boleng le bongata ts’ebetsong ea litaba tsa ts’ireletso ea metsi ho bohlokoa ebile ho oa hlokahala. Kahoo, ha sechaba sa mahaeng se sebetsana le litlamorao tsa phetoho ea maemo a leholimo, methati ea ts’ebetso e bopang mehato ea ts’ireletso ea metsi e hloka ho netefatsoa, hammoho

2 Kakaretso e ngotsweng ke Moprofesara Das Steÿn (Mohlophisi wa mehleng).

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le khokahanyo e tsoelelletseng ea meralo ea libaka tsa mahaeng.

Geraghty o hlahloba ts’ebetso UK le Ireland ka kakaretso ho nahana ka katleho ea boiteko ba ho kenya tšebetsong merero ea naha Engelane. O bolela hore ho kenya li-SDG ts’ebetsong naheng ea Engelane ho sitisitsoe ke mokhoa oa naha oa puso le le maikutlo a hore li-SDG li etselitsoe linaha tse tsoelopele e fokolang. Sena se bakile khaello ea tsebo ka boteng le bohlokoa ba li-SDG. Ho hlokahala ha puso ea lebatooa hammoho le lilemo tsa phetoho-kholo meralong ea litoropo, o bileng o bakileng pherekano ea maano ho boetse ho liehisitse kamohelo ea li-SDG Engelane. Ho bile le liphetoho tse tlisitseng mekhoa e fapakaneng ea ho rala UK. Mekhoa e lateloang kantle ho naha ea Engelane e kenyeletsa ho nka likhato. Merero ea Nts’etsopele e Tsitsitseng (SDGs) ke boikemisetso le boithatelo bo etsoang ke mebuso ho kenya tšebetsong nts’etsopele e tšoarellang. Senotlolo sa ho kenya li-SDG tšebetsong ke boetapele bo hlakileng, bo matla maemong ohle, ka mmuso le sechaba se sebetsang ‘moho. Linaha tse ngata li ntse li latela ts’ebetso ea lehae, moo lintho tsa mantlha tsa lehae le tsa tikoloho li thehiloeng ts’ebetsong ea li-SDG.

Mthembu le Hlophe ba fana ka maikutlo a hore libaka tsa litoropo le tsa mahaeng Afrika Boroa li kotsing ea ho angoa ke phetoho ea maemo a leholimo; leha ho le joalo, hangata lingoliloeng tse mabapi le phetoho ea maemo a leholimo li ipapisitse le litlamorao tse etsahalang litoropong. Phuputso e totobatsa hore mekhoa ea boipheliso ea sechaba se tlokotsing libakeng tsa mahaeng le eona e angoa ke phetoho ea maemo a leholimo, ‘me ba tsepamisa maikutlo ho Masepala oa Setereke eo boholo ba metse oa eona e leng ea mahaeng. Ba hlakisa hore, e le ho loants’a boemo bo tobaneng le sechaba se tlokotsing, leseli le hlahang mabapi le maano a phetoho ea maemo a leholimo le fana ka maikutlo a hore ho aha botsitso litsing tsa batho le tsa tikoloho ke tsela e nepahetseng ea ho sebetsana le maemo a

meer algemeen om te besin oor die sukses van pogings om die volhoubare ontwikkelingsdoelwitte in Engeland te implementeer. Hy verklaar dat die implementering van volhoubare ontwikkelingsdoelwitte in die Verenigde Koninkryk belemmer word deur die bestuursreëlings en die perspektief dat dit hoofsaaklik vir ontwikkelende lande is. Dit het gelei tot ’n gebrek aan bewustheid van die bestaan en relevansie van volhoubare ontwikkelingsdoelwitte. Die afwesigheid van streeksbestuur tesame met jarelange permanente hervorming in beplanning, wat gelei het tot beleidsonstuimigheid, het hul aanvaarding in Engeland verder vertraag. Devolusie het gelei tot ’n verskil in die beplanningspraktyk in die Verenigde Koninkryk. Die benadering buite Engeland was baie meer proaktief. Die volhoubare ontwikkelingsdoelwitte is ’n ambisieuse en vrywillige onderneming deur regerings om volhoubare ontwikkeling te implementeer. Duidelike, sterk leierskap op alle vlakke is die sleutel tot die implementering van volhoubare ontwikkelingsdoelwitte met die regering en die burgerlike samelewing wat saamwerk. Baie lande het ’n proses van lokalisering gevolg, waarin plaaslike en streeksprioriteite gewortel is in die implementering van die volhoubare ontwikkelingsdoelwitte.

Mthembu en Hlophe stel voor dat stedelike en landelike gebiede in Suid-Afrika kwesbaar is vir gevolge van klimaatsverandering; literatuur oor klimaatsverandering is egter dikwels gebaseer op ’n stedelike perspektief. Die studie beklemtoon dat die lewensbestaan van kwesbare gemeenskappe in landelike gebiede ook beïnvloed word deur klimaatsverandering, deur te fokus op ’n distriksmunisipaliteit wat hoofsaaklik landelik van aard is. Hulle het die argument aangevoer dat, ten einde die situasie waarmee kwesbare gemeenskappe te kampe het, teen te werk, moet die insig oor klimaatsveranderingstrategieë daarop dui dat die bou van veerkragtigheid in menslike en omgewingstelsels

ambitious and voluntary undertaking by governments to implement sustainable development. Clear, strong leadership at all levels is key to implementing the SDGs, with government and civil society working together. Many countries have been pursuing a process of localisation, in which local and regional priorities are rooted in the implementation of the SDGs.

Mthembu and Hlophe suggest that urban and rural areas in South Africa are vulnerable to climate change implications; however, literature on climate change is often based on an urban perspective. The study highlights that the livelihoods of vulnerable communities in rural areas are also affected by climate change, by focusing on a District Municipality that is predominantly rural in character. They put forward the argument that, in order to counteract the situation facing vulnerable communities, emergent insights on climate change strategies suggest that building resilience in human and environmental systems is the ideal way of dealing with dynamic environmental conditions and future uncertainties. The findings indicate that the adopted climate change approach in the Municipalities’ planning documents are technocratic and autocratic, with limited bottom-up participation. There is a need to address climate change implications in the Districts, especially since they mainly affect food security; hence, the study recommends the use of indigenous knowledge and effective climate change awareness, as well as GIS mapping of environmental systems such as dry rivers and alien invasive plants, as this has the potential to mitigate climate change implications.

Myers, Walz and Jumbe point out that Zanzibar faces a challenging landscape for fostering resilient urban communities and planning for mitigation and adaptation to climate change. The rapid pace of urbanization compounds the efforts to plan for resilient communities. The study focuses on urban and

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.18820/2415-0495/trp77i1.Editorial vii

die ideale manier is om dinamiese omgewingstoestande en toekomstige onsekerhede te hanteer. Die bevindings dui aan dat die aangenome benadering tot klimaatsverandering in die munisipaliteit se beplanningsdokumente tegnokraties en outokraties is, met beperkte deelname van onder na bo. Die aanspreek van die gevolge van klimaatsverandering in die distrik is nodig, veral omdat dit hoofsaaklik voedselsekerheid beïnvloed; daarom beveel die studie die gebruik van inheemse kennis en effektiewe bewustheid van klimaatsverandering aan, sowel as GIS-kartering van omgewingstelsels soos droë riviere en uitheemse indringerplante, want dit kan die gevolge van klimaatsverandering versag.

Myers, Walz en Jumbe wys daarop dat Zanzibar voor ’n uitdagende landskap te staan kom vir die bevordering van weerbare stedelike gemeenskappe en beplanning vir die versagting en aanpassing by klimaatsverandering. Die vinnige tempo van verstedeliking vergroot die pogings om weerbare gemeenskappe te beplan. Die studie het gefokus op stedelike en omgewingsbeplanningsmaatreëls van 2010 tot 2020 wat daarop gemik is om die gevolge van klimaatsverandering die hoof te bied en te werk aan veerkragtigheid, versagting en aanpassing in stedelike Zanzibar. Die argument is dat beplanning vir klimaatsverandering groter maatskaplike wil en finansiële belegging verg as wat tans in Zanzibar bestaan. Dinamiese individuele en regeringspogings en uitgesoekte betrokkenheid by die gemeenskap is waarskynlik onvoldoende om veerkragtigheid te bewerkstellig. Die studie word afgesluit met beleidsaanbevelings, spesifiek vir Zanzibar, en relevant in die hele streek.

Kasim, Agbola en Oweniwe gee te kenne dat, hoewel daar natuurlike dryfvere vir klimaatsverandering is, die verstedelikingsproses, wat bydra tot die toename in die uitstoot van kweekhuisgasse, beskou word as een van die belangrikste faktore wat die ruimtelike variasie in die

tikoloho le liphapang tse tlisoang ke bokamoso. Liphetho li supa hore mokhoa o amohetsoeng oa ho seka seka phetoho ea maemo a leholimo litokomaneng tsa meralo ea Masepala ke o hatellang ebile o ikemetse, o sa natse maikutlo a sechaba. Ho na le tlhoko ea ho sebetsana le litlamorao tsa phetoho ea maemo a leholimo Literekeng, haholo hobane li ama ts’ireletso ea lijo; ka hona, phuputso e khothaletsa ts’ebeliso ea tsebo ea matsoalloa le tlhokomeliso e sebetsang ea phetoho ea maemo a leholimo, hammoho le ‘mapa oa GIS oa litsamaiso tsa tikoloho joalo ka linoka tse ommeng le limela tse sa tsoalloang libakeng tseo, kaha sena se na le monyetla oa ho fokotsa litlamorao tsa phetoho ea maemo a leholimo.

Myers, Walz le Jumbe ba supa hore Zanzibar e tobane le phephetso ea ho matlafatsa botsitso ba sechaba se phelang litoropong le ho etsa meralo e khinang le ho ikamahanya le phetoho ea maemo a leholimo. Kholo e potlakileng ea litoropo e siitisa boiteko ba ho rala sechaba se tsitsitseng. Phuputso ena e shebile haholo mehato ea meralo ea toropo le tikoloho ho tloha 2010 ho isa 2020 e neng e reretsoe ho tobana le litlamorao tsa phetoho ea maemo a leholimo le ho sebeletsa ho ba le botsitso, ho fokotsa le ho ikamahanya le maemo toropong ea Zanzibar. Khang ke hore ho rerela phetoho ea maemo a leholimo ho hloka thahasello e kholo ea sechaba le tsetelo ea lichelete e phahameng ho feta e teng hajoale Zanzibar. Boiteko bo matla ba motho ka mong le ba mmuso le ho khetha boitlamo ba sechaba ha boa lekana ho hlahisa botsitso le mamello nakong ea phetoho ea maemo leholimo. Phuputso e phetheloa ka likhothaletso tsa maano tse tobileng Zanzibar le tse amehang ho latela sebaka seo ka kakaretso.

Kasim, Agbola le Oweniwe ba hlokomelisa hore, lehoja hona le lisosa tsa thlaho tsa phetoho ea maemo a leholimo, lipalo tse phahameng tsa batho ba fallelang litoropong, le tsona li kentse letsoho keketsong ea likhase tse futhumatsang lefatše, ‘me ke e ‘ngoe ea lisosa tse kholo tse susumetsang phapano ea mocheso oa mobu (LST), likhase tse tsoang lefats’eng (LSE), le phetoho ea maemo a leholimo. Mekhoa

environmental planning measures from 2010 to 2020 aimed at confronting the impacts of climate change and working toward resilience, mitigation and adaptation in urban Zanzibar. The argument is that planning for climate change requires greater social will and financial investment than currently exist in Zanzibar. Dynamic individual and governmental efforts and select community engagement do not suffice to produce resilience. The study concludes with policy recommendations specific to Zanzibar and relevant across the region.

Kasim, Agbola and Oweniwe allude that, although there are natural drivers of climate change, the urbanization process, contributing to increasing greenhouse gases emission, has been adjudged to be one of the major factors influencing spatial variation in the land surface temperature (LST), land surface emissivity (LSE), and climate change. The spatio-temporal trends of LST were identified to be related to the changes in Land Use Land Cover change (LULC); the built-up area had the highest LSE. The highest LST (43°C) was observed in 2018 at the core area of the city where building density was highest. The study suggests an application of cool pavements, green development and urban forest regeneration for sustainable development.

Ola examines the effects of urban planning practice on urban agriculture (UA) in Ilorin, Nigeria, and how it has contributed to improving the resilience of the city to food shock. Findings reveal that UA contributed 16.9% to meat/fish/egg requirements in the city; 4.5% to yam/cassava/potato; 0.58% to vegetable requirements; 0.6% to fruits requirements, and 0.5% to grain requirements. RAI results indicate poor access to finance (0.93), limited land area (0.75), and lack of tenure security (0.44) as the dominant variables influencing poor contribution of UA to food security. Integrating UA into urban planning and provision of ample land for farming are recommended.

viii

Van Niekerk, Pieterse and Roux describe the steps involved in the process of developing and structuring this menu of actions, and explains how the information contained in the Green Book can be used to promote the planning of climate-resilient settlements in South Africa. The Green Book is not a book, but a novel, practical online planning tool to support the adaptation of South African settlements to the impacts of climatic changes and severe events. It provides evidence of current and future (2050) climate risks and vulnerability for every local municipality in South Africa (including at a settlement level) in the form of climate change projections, multi-dimensional vulnerability indicators, population growth projections, and climate hazard and impact modelling. Based on this evidence, the Green Book develops a menu of planning-related adaptation actions, and offers support in the selection of appropriate actions from this menu to be integrated into local development strategies and plans.

Brand and Drewes point out that the regional corridor networks, as a potential spatial targeting instrument, might not be the only solution in transforming the local challenges of inequality, unemployment and poverty facing South Africa; it does, however, re-orientate attention to the potential of regional centres as development nodes. By considering the ‘economic potential’ and ‘gravitational analysis’ as measurement outcomes of the regional corridor network model, they found that they could show which centres are emerging as preferred locations for creating development opportunities to enhance economic growth. Unfortunately, the data used was for a South Africa before the world economic reset experienced in 2020.3

Sinxadi, Awuzie and Campbell argue that a fixation on well-established primary cities studies of the extinction of urban public open spaces has been noticed, whilst limited attention has been paid to emerging secondary cities. They further ague that enablers of urban public open space encroachment

3 Summary written by Prof. Das Steÿn (former Editor).

landoppervlaktemperatuur (LST), emissievermoë op die landoppervlak (LSE) en klimaatsverandering beïnvloed. Die ruimtelike-tydelike neigings van LST is geïdentifiseer as verwant aan die veranderinge in grondgebruikverandering (LULC); die beboude gebied het die hoogste LSE gehad. Die hoogste LST (43°C) is in 2018 waargeneem in die kerngebied van die stad waar die gebou se digtheid die hoogste was. Die studie dui op die toepassing van koel sypaadjies, groen ontwikkeling en stedelike bosvernuwing vir volhoubare ontwikkeling.

Ola ondersoek die gevolge van stedelike beplanningspraktyk op stedelike landbou in Ilorin, Nigerië, en hoe dit daartoe bygedra het om die stad se veerkragtigheid vir voedselskok te verbeter. Bevindinge het aan die lig gebring dat stedelike landbou 16.9% bygedra het tot vleis/vis/eierbehoeftes in die stad; 4.5% tot yam/cassava/aartappel; 0.58% aan groentebehoeftes; 0,6% aan vrugtebehoeftes, en 0.5% aan graanbehoeftes. RAI-resultate het aangedui dat swak toegang tot finansiering (0.93), beperkte oppervlakte (0.75) en gebrek aan verblyfsekerheid (0.44) die dominante veranderlikes was wat die swak bydrae van UA tot voedselsekerheid beïnvloed. Stedelike landbou word aanbeveel in stedelike beplanning en die voorsiening van voldoende grond vir boerdery.

Van Niekerk, Pieterse en Roux beskryf die stappe wat betrokke is by die ontwikkeling en strukturering van ‘n lys van aksies, en verduidelik hoe die inligting in die Groenboek gebruik kan word om die beplanning van klimaatsbestande nedersettings in Suid-Afrika te bevorder. The Groenboek is nie ’n boek nie, maar ’n nuwe, praktiese aanlynbeplanningsinstrument om die aanpassing van Suid-Afrikaanse nedersettings aan die gevolge van klimaatsveranderinge en ernstige gebeure te ondersteun. Dit lewer bewyse van huidige en toekomstige (2050) klimaatsrisiko’s en kwesbaarheid vir elke plaaslike munisipaliteit in Suid-Afrika (ook op ‘n nedersettingsvlak) in die vorm van projeksies oor klimaatsverandering, multidimensionele kwesbaarheidsindikators, bevolkingsgroei en klimaatsgevaar, en impakmodellering. Op grond

ea nakoana ea LST libakeng e fumanoe e amana le liphetoho tsa ts’ebeliso le koahelo ea mobu (LULC); ‘me libaka tse ahiloeng li ne li na le LSE e phahameng ka ho fetisisa. LST e phahameng ka ho fetisisa (43 ° C) e bonahetse ka 2018 sebakeng sa mantlha sa toropo moo bongata ba meaho e neng e le mekato e mengata ka ho fetesisa. Phuputso e fana ka maikutlo a ts’ebeliso ea litsela tsa maoto tse phlisitsoeng, nts’etsopele ea botala le nchafatso ea meru litoropong ele ho netefatsa nts’etsopele e tsitsitseng.

Ola o hlahloba litlamorao tsa ts’ebetso ea meralo ea litoropo temong ea litoropong (UA) toropong ea Ilorin, Nigeria, le hore na e kentse letsoho joang ho ntlafatseng botsitso ba toropo khaellong ea lijo. Liphuputso li senola hore UA e kentse 16.9% ho litlhoko tsa nama / tlhapi / mahe toropong; 4.5% ho ea yam / cassava / litapole; 0.58% ho latela litlhoko tsa meroho; 0,6% ho ea ho litlhoko tsa litholoana, le 0.5% ho litlhoko tsa lijo-thollo. Liphetho tsa RAI li bonts’a phihlello e fokolang ea lichelete (0.93), sebaka se lekanyelitsoeng sa mobu (0.75), le khaello ea ts’ireletso ea nako (0.44) e le mefuta e meholo e susumetsang monehelo o mobe oa UA ho ts’ireletso ea lijo. Ba khothaletsa ho kopanya UA meralong ea litoropo le ho fana ka mobu o lekaneng bakeng sa temo.

Van Niekerk, Pieterse le Roux ba hlalosa methati e amehang molemong oa ho nts’etsapele le ho hlophisa lenane lena la liketso, hape ba hlalosa hore na tlhaiso-leseling ea Buka e Tala (Green Book) e ka sebelisoa joang ho ntšetsa pele moralo oa libaka tsa bolulo tse matlafatsang maemo a leholimo naheng ea Afrika Boroa. Buka ena hase buka fela, empa ke sesebelisoa se setja, se batsi, se ka hokahangoang le marangrang ho ts’ehetsa tloaelo libaka tsa bolulo tsa Afrika Boroa litlamorao le lits’uts’umetsong ts tlisoang ke liphetoho tsa maemo a leholimo le likoluoa. E fana ka bopaki ba likotsi tsa phetoho ea maemo a leholimo ba hajoale le ba nakong e tlang (2050), le litlokotsi tse amang masepala e mong le e mong oa lehae Afrika Boroa (ho kenyeletsoa le maemong a bolulo), ‘moho le sebopeho sa likhakanyo tsa phetoho ea maemo a leholimo, lits’oants’o tsa mekhahlelo ea phetoho, likhakanyo tsa kholo

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.18820/2415-0495/trp77i1.Editorial ix

in emerging cities using Mangaung Metropolitan include low levels of sustainability literacy, low levels of citizen participation in the planning process, and planners’ inability to manage extant value conflicts.

REFERENCES World Bank. 2019. Global risks report. Washington, DC. [Online]. Available at: <https://weforum.org/reports/the-global-risks-report-2019>.

DEA (Department of Environmental Affairs). 2011. National climate change response paper. [Online]. Available at: <https://www.environment.gov.za/sites/default/files/legislations/national_climatechange_response_whitepaper.pdf>

van hierdie bewyse het die Groenboek ’n keuselys ontwikkel met beplanningsverwante aanpassingsaksies en bied ondersteuning in die keuse van toepaslike aksies uit hierdie lys om geïntegreer te word in plaaslike ontwikkelingstrategieë en -planne.

Brand en Drewes wys daarop dat die plaaslike korridornetwerke, as ’n potensiële ruimtelike teikeninstrument, miskien nie die enigste oplossing is om die plaaslike uitdagings van ongelykheid, werkloosheid en armoede wat Suid-Afrika in die gesig staar te transformeer nie; maar dit vestig die aandag weer op die potensiaal van streeksentrums as ontwikkelingsknope. Deur dan die ‘ekonomiese potensiaal’ en ‘gravitasie-analise’ as meetresultate van die streekkorridornetwerkmodel in ag te neem, het hulle gevind dat hulle kan aantoon watter sentrums opduik as voorkeurplekke om ontwikkelingsgeleenthede te skep om ekonomiese groei te verbeter. Ongelukkig was die data wat gebruik is, verteenwoordig van ’n Suid-Afrika voordat die wêreldwye ekonomiese herstel in 2020 ondervind is.3

Sinxadi, Awuzie en Campbell voer aan dat ’n fiksasie op gevestigde studies oor primêre stede van die uitwissing van openbare ruimtes opgemerk is, terwyl opkomende sekondêre stede beperk is. Hulle is ook van mening dat die inskakeling van stedelike openbare ruimtes in die opkomende stede met behulp van ’n Mangaung Metropolitan, lae vlakke van volhoubaarheidsgeletterdheid, lae vlakke van burgerdeelname aan die beplanningsproses, en die onvermoë van beplanners om bestaande waardekonflikte te bestuur, insluit.

VERWYSINGS World Bank. 2019. Global risks report. Washington, DC. [Online]. Available at: <https://weforum.org/reports/the-global-risks-report-2019>.


3 Opsomming deur Prof. Das Steÿn (voormalige Redakteur).

ea palo ea baahi, le likoluoa tsa phetoho ea maemo a leholimo, hape le tšusumetso ea mehlala e fanoeng. Ho ipapisitsoe le bopaki bona, Buka e Tala e hlahisa lethathamo la liketso tse amanang le moralo, ‘me e fana ka ts’ehetso ho khethoeng ha liketso tse nepahetseng ho tsoa lenaneng lena hore li kenngoe maanong le mererong ea nts’etsopele ea lehae.

Brand le Drewes ba supa hore marangrang a mabatooa, joalo ka sesebelisoa sa ho shebisisa libaka, a kanna ea eaba hase ona fela a ka rarollang le ho fetola liphephetso tsa lehae tsa tekatekano tse tobaneng le Afrika Boroa, joaloka tlhokeho ea mesebetsi le bofuma; Leha ho le joalo, e khutlisetsa tlhokomelo ho bokhoni ba litsi tsa tikoloho joalo ka libaka tsa nts’etsopele. Ka ho nahana ka ‘bokhoni ba moruo’ le ‘tlhahlobo ea matla a ho hohela’ joalo ka liphetho tsa litekanyo tsa mofuta oa marang-rang, ba fumane hore ba ka bonts’a litsi tse hlahang e le libaka tse ratoang bakeng sa ho theha menyetla ea nts’etsopele ho matlafatsa kholo ea moruo. Ka bomalimabe, tlhaiso-leseling e sebelisitsoeng e ne e le ea Afrika Boroa pele moruo oa lefatše o fetoha ka 2020.3

Sinxadi, Awuzie le Campbell ba lemosa hore lithuto le lipatlisiso mabapi le ho fela hoa libaka tsa sechaba tsa boikhathollo litoropong li lekola haholo litoropo tse kholo, ha thahasello e fokolang e fuoe litoropo tse nyenyana. Ba tsoela pele ho hlakisa hore maemo a tlase a ho bala le ho ngola, maemo a tlase a ho nka karolo ha baahi mererong oa ho rala, le ho hloleha hoa barali ba litoropo rarollalikhohlano tsa bolengsechabeng ho tlisa ts’ebeliso e mpe ea libaka tsena tsa sechaba litoropong tse sa holang joaloka motse-moholo oa Mangaung.

LIEKETSENG LITLHAKISOWorld Bank. 2019. Global risks report. Washington, DC. [Online]. Available at: <https://weforum.org/reports/the-global-risks-report-2019>.


3 Kakaretso e ngotsweng ke Moprofesara Das Steÿn (Mohlophisi wa mehleng).

1

© Creative Commons With Attribution (CC-BY)

Published by the UFShttp://journals.ufs.ac.za/index.php/trp

SSB/TRP/MDM 2020 (77):1-17 | ISSN 1012-280 | e-ISSN 2415-0495

How to cite: Van Aswegen, M. Retief, F.P. & Drewes, E. 2020. Regional resilience in peripheral South Africa: The Northern Cape case. Town and Regional Planning, no.77, pp. 1-17.

Dr Mariske van Aswegen* (corresponding author), Unit for Environmental Science and Management, Private Bag X6001, North-West University, Potchefstroom, South Africa. Phone: +27 72 6266 758/+27 18 299 2543, email: <[email protected]>, ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3817-2380.Prof. Francois Pieter Retief, Unit for Environmental Science and Management, Private Bag X6001, North-West University, Potchefstroom, South Africa. Phone: +27 18 299 2543, email: <[email protected]>.Prof. Ernst Drewes, Department of Town and Regional Planning, North-West University, Potchefstroom, South Africa. Phone: +27 18 299 2543, email: <[email protected]>, ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-00034094-4922.

Regional resilience in peripheral South Africa: The Northern Cape case

Mariske van Aswegen,* Francois Pieter Retief & Ernst Drewes

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.18820/2415-0495/trp77i1.1

Peer reviewed and revised July 2020

Published December 2020

*The authors declared no conflict of interest for this title or article

AbstractThe role of regional policy mechanisms towards increased regional resilience is widely recognised, but limited consideration is given to the impact of these mechanisms in, specifically, the peripheral region. In reaction hereto, this article explores the role of three key mechanisms, i.e. economic sectoral composition, innovation and knowledge networks, as well as government institutions as policy tools towards increased regional resilience in a peripheral region in South Africa. The role of each of these mechanisms is quantified and measured by specified indices such as the GVA, the Tress Index and the ICT Access Index, and government indicators such as audit outcomes and service delivery data in five planning regions of the Northern Cape province. This article highlights that a state of dynamic stability and resilience is more feasible through policy intervention focused on these three mechanisms, coupled with detailed regional socio-economic analysis. It also emphasises that a knowledge-rich region will be less dependent on single sector development, pushing itself into a new development stage of secondary and tertiary sector focus through economic diversification, lessening its vulnerability to external shocks and disturbances, and impeding regional lock-in. In support hereto, collective institutional action by a responsive and accountable local and regional government, operating beyond their functional limits, will reinforce and amplify development in the peripheral region.Keywords: Economic sectoral structure, innovation and knowledge networks, government institutions, regional resilience, peripheral region, regional development, policy mechanisms, South Africa

STREEKSVEERKRAGTIGHEID IN PERIFERE SUID-AFRIKA: DIE NOORD-KAAP Die rol van streeksbeleidsmeganismes vir verhoogde streeksveerkragtigheid word wyd erken, maar beperkte oorweging word gewy aan die impak van hierdie mega-nismes in spesifiek die periferiese streek. In reaksie hierop ondersoek hierdie artikel die rol van drie sleutelmeganismes, naamlik ekonomiese sektorale samestelling, innovasie- en kennisnetwerke, sowel as regeringsinstellings as beleidsinstrumente vir verhoogde streeksweerstand in ’n periferiese streek in Suid-Afrika. Die rol van elk van hierdie meganismes word gekwantifiseer en gemeet teen gespesifiseerde

indekse soos die GVA, die Tress-indeks en die ICT-toegangsindeks, en regeringsaanwysers soos oudituitkomste en diensleweringsdata in vyf beplan-nings streke van die Noord-Kaap provinsie. Hierdie artikel beklemtoon dat ’n toestand van dinamiese stabiliteit en veerkragtigheid meer haalbaar is deur beleidsinmenging gefokus op hierdie drie meganismes, tesame met gedetail leerde streeksanalise. Die artikel beklemtoon ook dat ’n kennisryke streek minder afhanklik sal wees van ’n enkele sektor deur ’n fokus op ekonomiese diversifikasie. Hierdeur kan ’n streek in ’n nuwe ontwikkelingsfase van sekondêre en tersiêre sektorfokus inbeweeg. Die kwesbaarheid van die streek vir eksterne skokke en versteurings sal verminder en streekuitsluiting word voorkom. Ter ondersteuning hiertoe, sal institu-sionele kollektiewe optrede deur ’n reaktiewe en verantwoordbare plaaslike en streeksregering wat buite hul funk-sionele perke werk, die ontwikkeling van die periferiese streek versterk en kwesbaarheid vir eksterne skokke verminder.Sleutelwoorde: Beleidsmeganismes, ekono miese sektorale struktuur, inno-vasie- en kennisnetwerke, periferiese streek, rege rings instellings, streeks-on t wikkeling, streeks veerkragtig heid, Suid-Afrika

TSITSISO EA TIKOLOHO E MEELING EA AFRIKA BOROA: TEMOHISO EA KAPA LEBOEABoikaraelo ba maano a tikoloho mabapi le kholo ea botsitso ba tikoloho bo ananeloa hohle, empa boinahano holima tšusumetso ea maano ena, haholo-holo, tikolohong e meeling ea naha, e ea fokola. E le ho arabela hona, sengoloa sena se hlahloba mekhoa e meraro ea mantlha, eleng sebopeho sa lekala la moruo, boqapi le marang-rang a tsebo, hammoho le litsi tsa mmuso e le lisebelisoa tsa maano bakeng sa ho eketsa botsitso ba tikoloho meeling ea naha ea Afrika Boroa. Karolo e ‘ngoe le e’ ngoe ea mekhoa ena e lekantsoe le ho lekanyetsoa ka lits’oants’o tse boletsoeng joalo ka GVA, Tress Index le ICT Access Index, le lits’oants’o tsa mmuso tse kang liphetho tsa tlhahlobo ea libuka le tlhaiso-leseling ea phano

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ea litšebeletso libakeng tse hlano tsa meralo ea profinse ea Kapa Leboea. Sengoliloeng sena se totobatsa hore ho matlafatsa boemo ba botsitso ba tikoloho ho ka khonahala ka ho sebelisa maano a tsepamisitseng maikutlo mekhoeng ena e meraro, hammoho le tlhaiso-leseling ea moruo oa tikoloho. Se boetse se totobatsa hore sebaka se ruileng tsebo ha sea itšetleha nts’etsopeleng ea lekala le le leng la moruo, empa se ikitlaetsa nts’etsopeleng ea moruo ka makala a ‘maloa, mekhahlelong e fapaneng, ele ho fokotsa litšisinyeho le litšitiso tse tsoang kantle. Ho ts’ehetsa sena, khato e nkiloeng ka kopanelo ke mmuso mmoho le mafapha a mang ele ho hatiselletsa boikarabello le ts’ebetso ea puso ea libaka le lebatooa, o tla matlafatsa le ho holisa nts’etsopele tikolohong e mathokong a naha.

1. INTRODUCTIONThe relevance of this article lies within the regional study area of the Northern Cape province in South Africa, classified as a peripheral region in a downward transitional spiral (see Figure 3). This study originated from the current economic crisis experienced by the peripheral region of the Northern Cape province, due to various mine closures and retrenchments over the past few years, which can mainly be ascribed to world economic recession and plummeting commodity prices (Department Economic Development and Tourism, Northern Cape, 2017: 3). This crisis is heightened by the continued drought affecting the agricultural sector (AgriSA, 2019). This inevitably infers a twofold issue within this region, i.e. resource dependence and frontier locality within the larger space economy of South Africa (see Figure 4). This implies a region that

is currently undergoing stagnation and even decline in its economic base (see section 4), a decline in its resources base, as well as poor or lacking infrastructure (Department Economic Development and Tourism, 2017: 9-11). In order to revitalise this economy, an imminent need for diversification regarding the various economic sectors was identified (Department Economic Development and Tourism, 2017: 3; Northern Cape Government, 2019: 36). As is the case of many peripheral regions, this decline has led to a shrinking population and ever-dwindling income for the local inhabitants (Harrison & Todes, 2013: 18; Northern Cape Government, 2019: 76-79). This region could potentially benefit greatly from a regional resilience strategy, to ensure that the region will be able to rebound, adapt to, and recover from future setbacks. At present, no such strategy or policy exists.

This article, therefore, proposes an integrated developmental policy approach towards a more resilient Northern Cape province. The proposals are based on three mechanisms of regional resilience, i.e. sectoral composition, innovation and knowledge networks, as well as government institutions. To develop a strategy or policy for more resilient planning regions in the Northern Cape province, this article measures the impact of each of the identified mechanisms of resilience within the study area by means of specified indices and indicators. Based on the measurement outcome, recommendations are formulated on how the five planning regions (PRs) can utilise regional

policy to unlock their potential in the peripheral regions that are currently not flourishing.

2. CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK

To understand how strategy and policy can be used to unlock regional resilience in peripheral South Africa, it is important to introduce the current theory on regional resilience included in this article. The existing theory focuses on the concepts of regional resilience, regional policy, the peripheral region, and mechanisms associated with regional resilience. The conceptual framework focuses on an unexplored theme of regional policy specifically designed for peripheral regions (see Figure 1).

2.1 Resilience on regional levelDuring the maturing of the regional resilience concept, various studies have been conducted and resilience on a regional level approached from various angles. The most recognised is the ‘evolutionary approach’ to regional resilience (Christopherson, Mitchie & Tyler, 2010: 8; Pike, Dawley & Tomaney, 2010: 4; Boschma, 2015: 744). This approach advocates that both adaptation (variations within predetermined paths) and adaptability (departing or altering from the present path) are essential for the region to react in a resilient manner (Christopherson et al., 2010: 6; Pike et al., 2010: 4; Bristow & Healy, 2014: 94) and to surmount negative lock-in (Boschma & Lambooy, 1999). Regional lock-in refers to the negative effects of geographical clustering of industries on innovativeness and renewal (Hassink, 2010: 452). For instance, a region can become too dependent on its initial core economic sector, i.e. primary sector, which renders such a region too focused on a single economic sector (Grabher, 1993: 261; Saviotti & Frenken, 2008: 208). Various types of lock-in are identified, i.e. functional, political, and cognitive. They describe a region that becomes reliant on previous growth paths, due to ossification of institutional outlooks, relationships,

).

Figure 1: Conceptual framework Source: Own compilation

Regional resilience

Mechanisms of resilience Regional policy Peripheral region

Figure 1: Conceptual frameworkSource: Own compilation

Mariske van Aswegen, Francois Pieter Retief & Ernst Drewes • Regional resilience in peripheral South Africa

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and configurations, which inhibit adaptability (Grabher, 1993: 260-264; Hasssink, 2010: 452; Crespo, Suire & Vicente, 2014: 6). Lock-ins are often found to overlap and are self-reinforcing, causing the region to be more vulnerable to shocks and slow-burn processes. Majoor (2015: 261) notes that, if the focus is primarily on adaptation, there is a risk of a ‘performance trap’ or even eventual stagnation, due to inflexibility and lack of innovation. A predominant emphasis on adaptability, in turn, could lead to a ‘failure trap’, due to a multitude of underdeveloped ideas and slow (or no) progress (Simsek, Heavey, Veiga & Souder, 2009: 867). Martin and Sunley (2006: 121-123) identify various ‘de-locking’ mechanisms to provide a basis to move towards a state of stability between adaptation and adaptability. This includes, for example, diversification of the economic structure, arranging technological advances, introducing and entrenching external resources, and generating innovation. This suggests that regions can enhance their adaptability if strategies and policies are in place to prevent lock-in and enhance the region’s ability to absorb these shocks. A resilient system allows for continuous growth on an existing path (adaptation) and a simultaneous shifting (transformation) of other components to adjust the growth path into a new direction, in order to ensure future resistance to shocks (De Weijer, 2013; Turok, 2014). This ‘dynamic stability’ is regarded as a key to empower a system to be in a more defensible and viable position against shocks (Grabher, 1993; Grabher & Stark, 1997; Miller, Osbahr, Boyd, Thomalla, Bharwani, Ziervogel, Walker, Birkmann, Van der Leeuw, Rockstrom, Hinkel, Downing, Folke & Nelson, 2010; Pike et al., 2010). Clegg, Da Cunha and Cunha (2002: 486) are of the opinion that resilient aptitude is found in practices that recognise the relationship between these contrasts and deal with this contradiction without substituting or diminishing

the tensions, or “operating at the edge of chaos” (Pascale, 1999: 92).

2.2 Resilience mechanismsFrom the literature, it is evident that regional resilience is embodied, first, in the history of the economic (and industrial) sectoral composition and growth of a region (Glaeser, 2005: 151; Davies, 2011; Boschma, 2015: 736); secondly, in the dynamic interactions along networks (physical or abstract) within the region (Lawson, 1999: 162; Boschma & Frenken, 2010: 124; Crespo et al., 2014:6), and in the institutions found, and their reactions to change (Dawley, 2014: 99; Majoor, 2015: 264; Boschma, 2015: 736). Turok (2014: 753) supports this with the observation that all countries in the world have similar urban agendas, based on the three dimensions of change, i.e. economic progress, spatial integration, and responsive government. The dimensions of change directly correspond to the types of lock-in experienced by regions and could be regarded as an approach to prevent lock-in or stagnation (see section 2.1). Figure 2 indicates the mechanisms of regional resilience, as emanated from literature and proposed as crucial and pivotal to the regional resilience concept.

Each of these mechanisms is introduced based on the premise of balancing adaptation and adaptability within the evolutionary regional resilience as the shock absorbers (Boschma, 2015: 736) that counteract the potential negative impacts on a region.

2.2.1 Economic sectoral composition

The role of the economic sectoral composition of a region has been extensively emphasised in literature on resilience, with a strong focus on the negative impact of external shocks to a specific sector, for instance a fall in demand (Davies, 2011; Groot, Mohlmann, Garretsen & De Groot, 2011). Consequently, it is perceived that regions with a higher rate of specialisation are less vulnerable to a sector-specific shock. If, however, a shock strikes the dominant sector, the impact will be greater on the regional economy. Specialised regions are accordingly regarded as having high levels of adaptation, but low levels of adaptability (Grabher, 1993: 265; Neffke, Henning & Boschma, 2011: 240). In more diversified regions, the chances of experiencing a sector-specific shock are higher, but a shock to a single sector will have less damaging impact than in the sole-sector economy (Dissart, 2003: 442; Essletzbichler, 2007: 205; Davies & Tonts, 2010: 224; Desrochers & Leppala, 2011: 846). Literature highlights that related variety could potentially lead to a more acceptable level of balance between adaptation and adaptability, and ultimately ensure long-term capacity of a region to timeously push itself onto a new growth path (Glaeser, 2005: 151; Frenken, Van Oort & Verburg, 2007: 695; Belussi & Sedita, 2009: 509; Treado, 2010: 108; Neffke et al., 2011: 240). A region with high levels of related variety is regarded as one with a wide range proposed as crucial and pivotal to the regional resilience concept.

Figure 2: Regional resilience mechanisms Source: Own construction adapted from Treado, 2010; Davies, 2011; Turok, 2014; Boschma, 2015

Regional resilience mechanisms

Economic sectoral composition

Innovation and knowledge networks Government institutions

Figure 2: Regional resilience mechanismsSource: Own construction adapted from Treado, 2010;

Davies, 2011; Turok, 2014; Boschma, 2015

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of related industries, which shows potential for inter-industry learning and allows for a recombination of industries to follow a new growth path (Martin & Sunley, 2006: 593; Frenken et al. 2007: 688; Pike et al., 2010: 5). Accordingly, related variety will not only guarantee adaptation, but also enhance adaptability.

2.2.2 Innovation and knowledge networks

The role of innovation and knowledge networks in regional resilience is introduced on the premises that it influences the sensitivity of regions to shocks, as there is a constant conflict between connectedness and resilience (Simmie & Martin, 2010: 33). Knowledge networks or relationships are viewed as the interactions that lead to knowledge gain or exchange between local role players and those outside the region (Lawson, 1999: 162). Adaptation in the case of knowledge networks is high when the local network structures are well developed and focused on the local region’s needs. Well-developed and inward-looking network structures are observed to enhance information flow and better coordination (Crespo et al., 2014: 205). This could, however, lead to low adaptability as excessive ‘cognitive proximity’, and a closed mindset makes renewal almost impossible (Grabher, 1993: 271; Boschma & Frenken, 2010: 124). Fleming, Mingo and Chen (2007: 446) propose that this sensitive balance between adaptation and adaptability can be overcome by a ‘knowledge network structure’, similar to the core-periphery structure (Friedmann, 1966: 36). The core is found within the presence of higher education, post-school education, training centres, and so on within close proximity to one another. He argues, and is supported by Balland, Suire and Vicente (2013: 61), that the strong core of the innovation network structure will lead to intensification of new ideas and increase adaptability. This intensification of ideas will spread through the network structure to the periphery by means of knowledge transfer. The periphery

in the network structure will be responsible for the coordination and circulation of ideas and knowledge. This will prevent full regional lock-out, due to high levels of connections between the core and the periphery, while diffusion of explorative behaviour will be more prevalent, due to the ability of key nodes to enhance the existing circulation of ideas (Crespo et al., 2014: 12).

2.2.3 Government institutions

The role of government institutions in regional resilience has received significant attention in the evolutionary approach to resilience. It is acknowledged that institutions are closely intertwined with the economic structure of the region and the accompanying knowledge networks. The institutional structure within a region is also subject to various shocks (i.e. social capital expenditure, economic policy influence), which will directly impact on a region’s ability to develop and follow a new growth path (Dawley, 2014: 99; Boschma, 2015: 736). The institutional capacity and prowess within a region can greatly influence how the region’s resources are allocated, how the region reacts to shocks, and how open-minded the region is to exogenous interaction and technological innovation. Institutions are largely linked to managing the trade-off between adaptability and adaptation (Boschma, 2015: 741). Therefore, the institutions involved should be equipped to cope with these paradoxical tensions (Majoor, 2015: 264). Accordingly, the role of institutions in regional resilience can be divided into three subgroups, i.e. institutional leadership; institutional arrangement, and institutional adaptive capacity. It is evident that a combination of strong institutional leadership and polycentric and multi-layered institutions ultimately relates to enhanced institutional resilience (Stimson, Stough & Roberts, 2009: 34; Pike et al., 2010: 10, Boschma, 2015: 742).

2.3 Regional policy approach Regional policy, in context, is defined as an attempt to induce a more effective spatial pattern through restructuring and modernising the productive base of an economy, all while being conscious and careful to fit in with national goals for growth and development (Friedmann, 1966: 18), employment, and social equity. It aims to either slow down certain negative aspects of growth and development to promote more balanced development across a region, or is strongly focused on furthering the mobility of capital and the mobility of labour (Kuklinksi, 1970: 272). More recently, it is supported by an aim of regional competitiveness (Capello, 2007: 205; Feiock, 2007: 363; OECD, 2010). Regional policy is more pronounced in developing countries, with a strong emphasis on the geographical or spatial impact it will have (Johnson, Gregory & Smith, 1986; Armstrong & Taylor, 2000). Internationally, regional policy has shifted from a short-term, single region approach, to a long-term context-specific approach, which no longer has a broad approach implemented by central government (OECD, 2010: 13). It recognises that a more sector-specific and area-specific approach renders better results when implemented in a multi-level and mixed investment manner, such as the proposals made in section 6. Instruments of regional policy aim to discourage and smooth out any frictions that may have been caused, due to uneven resource allocation, regional disequilibrium and underdevelopment, such as is the case in the Northern Cape (see section 5). Instruments associated with the various goals of regional policy differ for the level on which policy is designed for, i.e. interregional or intra-regional (Kuklinski, 1970: 270). For instance, short-term economic growth can be stimulated by allocating investment in stronger core regions, which will yield quick results. But, for longer term growth, it will be necessary to focus on breaking barriers (Lall, 2011:53) on spatial integration on an interregional scale.


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Four main types of policy actions can be essentially recognised (Richardson, 1983: 276), i.e. laissez-faire approach; slowing down primate city growth; policy focused on small and intermediate towns, and rural development policy. These policy actions can be used complementarily, each with its own focus. The policy options of rural development and slowing down primate city growth remain the main focus for a more spatially balanced region (Drewes, 2009: 63). Two typical instruments for the implementation of these approaches in developing countries (Glasson & Marshall, 2007: 15-16) include growth centres and corridor development, or a hybrid approach. First, the growth centre approach stems from the classical growth-pole theory of Perroux; it focuses efforts on the centres of potential within a region, in an attempt to generate economic spillover benefits and innovation diffusion to the surrounding region (Hansen, Higgins & Savoie, 1990: 285). The growth centres are made practical through establishing countermagnets (Richardson, 1983: 283), intermediate-sized cities (Richardson, 1981: 275), capital city focus (Richardson, 1981), and local economic development initiatives (Birch, 1996: 442).

Corridor development aims to connect centres within a region with one another. It is argued that two growth centres will continue to mutually reinforce one another if connected through a development axis (Richardson, 1987: 217). The interaction along the identified corridor has the potential to further develop and stimulate economic activity along decentralised corridors (Hall, 1987: 245). In prioritising the connection between a core region and the adjacent intermediate-sized towns/cities, a more functional and reinforcing hierarchical system is created (Bos, 1990: 191). The four main types of policy actions are also often utilised in conjunction with one another to fortify the effectiveness of the instruments. The practical application of the instruments is found within the following key

elements, namely investment in social and physical infrastructure (Maggi & Nijkamp, 1992: 29; Andrew & Feiock, 2010: 498); grants, loans and tax incentives in support of sectoral development (Krugman, 1991; Hall, Hall & Pfeiffer, 2000: 150; European Commission, 2020), and restrictions on certain economic sectors (Hall, 1975 126), as well as sites of strategic investment through zones of regeneration, innovation hubs, and science and technology parks (Lall, 2011: 46).

2.4 Peripheral region The peripheral region is classified as a subtype of planning region (Friedmann, 1966: 41; Kuklinski, 1970: 272; Stilwell, 1972), which Glasson (1978: 22) describes as “geographical regions suitable for the designing and implementing of development plans for dealing with the regional problems”. The peripheral region is, in turn, comprised of the resource-frontier region, the downward-transitional region, and the specialist problem region (UN, 1967: 281). A second group of planning regions is referred to as the “core region” of a given national space and includes a core and an upward-transitional subgrouping (see Figure 3).

Figure 3 highlights the typical characteristics associated with the peripheral region in general.

In terms of the resilience concept (see section 2.1), it can be deduced that the typical peripheral region is associated with poor resilience. The economic growth and development in these regions are often found to be stagnant or declining, and this could be ascribed to a dependence on a declining natural resources base and poor infrastructure. These regions are also associated with outmigration and a general brain-drain of the working population, clearly visible in the Northern Cape (see section 3) and associated to regional lock-in.

The National Government (Department Planning, Monitoring and Evaluation, 2017) classified the South African municipalities into five types of regions based on their economic centrality (see Figure 4). Accordingly, the inner core areas refer to the urban agglomerations focused around metropolitan centres and secondary cities and, in some instances, refer to a cluster of medium-sized economic nodes forming a large urban centre. The outer core refers to large towns with strong service functions; medium-sized mining economies; areas of high population density in close proximity to urban core areas; most of the former homeland1 areas, and

1 Homeland or Bantustan areas refer to territory that the National Party administration set aside for Black inhabitants as part of its policy of apartheid.

Figure 3). Figure 3: Classification of planning regions Source: Own construction adapted from Friedmann, 1966: 41-43.

Core Focus on economic

growth Urban nucleus

Cor

e re

gion

Upward-transitional

In process of development

Around core Resource endowed Proximity to core Leads to growth

Resource-frontier

Frontier location Leapfrog location New resources Corridors of penetration

Perip

hera

l reg

ions

Downward-transitional

Stagnant or declining Decline in resource base Decline in industrial

infrastructure Lose population Lose capital

Specialist-problem

Conflicting resource use National boundary areas

CORE

Upward-transitional

Downward-transitional

Resource-frontier

Spec

ialis

t-pro

blem

Figure 3: Classification of planning regionsSource: Own construction adapted from Friedmann, 1966: 41-43.

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large, dense population clusters around former homeland capitals.

The periphery of South Africa is classified into the semi-periphery, the periphery, and the deep periphery. South Africa’s semi-periphery has been defined in terms of three categories of settlements, i.e. municipalities centred around medium-sized towns with an established service function (annual GVA of roughly R1 billion to R2 billion a year); municipalities that fall mainly in former Bantustan areas (GVA over R1 billion per annum), and secondary mining outlier towns. In the semi-periphery, modest economic growth is prevalent (2.36% per annum) and population growth is slow (0.94% per annum) (Department Planning,

Monitoring and Evaluation, 2014: 23). The peripheral municipalities refer to those focused around small service centres (annual GVA of roughly R0.4 billion to R1 billion); former Bantustan economies with a similar size of economy and with generally moderate population densities, and small mining economies (Department Planning, Monitoring and Evaluation, 2014: 23). The periphery is further characterised by slow economic growth (1.63% per annum) and a very slow annual population growth rate (0.69%). The deep periphery comprises very marginal municipal economies growing at roughly 1.9% per annum and population change of 0.64% per annum, with the natural population increase barely compensating for

outmigration (Department Planning, Monitoring and Evaluation, 2014: 24). Municipalities in the deep periphery fall into two categories: municipalities centred around very small and generally scattered service centres, with GVA of less than R0.4 billion, and marginal municipalities in former Bantustans, with generally low population densities and GVA of less than R0.4 billion (Department Planning, Monitoring and Evaluation, 2014: 24). The poor performance of these areas is mainly ascribed to the depressed agricultural economy and the negative impact of declining population on the service centres (Harrison & Todes, 2013: 23; Department Planning, Monitoring and Evaluation, 2017) associated with poor resilience.

Bantustans, with generally low population densities and GVA of less than R0.4 billion (Department Planning, Monitoring and Evaluation, 2014: 24). The poor performance of these areas is mainly ascribed to the depressed agricultural economy and the negative impact of declining population on the service centres (Harrison & Todes, 2013: 23; Department Planning, Monitoring and Evaluation, 2017) associated with poor resilience.

Figure 4: Classification of South Africa’s regions Source: Department Planning, Monitoring and Evaluation, 2014: 20

Core Inner Urban Core Outer Urban Core

Periphery Semi periphery Periphery Deep Periphery

Local Municipalities

Northern Cape Province

Figure 4: Classification of South Africa’s regionsSource: Department Planning, Monitoring and Evaluation, 2014: 20


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3. STUDY AREA The Northern Cape province consists of five District Municipalities and 27 Local Municipalities (see Figure 4). The Northern Cape province extends over 30.5% of the total land surface of South Africa, bordering both Namibia and Botswana, rendering this a strategic province for cross-border interaction and -policy application. The province is considered a rural province, made up of smaller urban- and service-type settlements. The total population of the province is 1,175,780, at a density of 3.2 persons per km², in relation to an average density of 45 persons per km² in South Africa (Demarcation Board, 2019). It is recognised that especially the smaller settlements in the Northern Cape have undergone a myriad of changes, due to the impact of an ever-changing global economy, especially due to the province’s main dependence on the manufacturing, agricultural and mining sectors (Nel, 2005; Department Economic Development and Tourism, Northern Cape, 2017; Northern Cape Government, 2019). The primary sector in the Northern Cape accounts for 64.5% of the economy. The collapse of once prosperous mining settlements, the decline in agricultural output, the displacement of the roles of smaller service centres, due to advances in transport infrastructure, the dependence on state welfare, and the loss of local government status, resulting from various amalgamations, are put forward as some of the main issues facing the province (Northern Cape Government, 2019). These characteristics are associated with poor resilience. The Northern Cape Provincial Spatial Development Framework2 (Northern Cape Government, 2019) recognises poverty as the most significant issue facing the province, accompanied by the various societal challenges, due to the effects thereof. The region

2 A Spatial Development Framework (SDF) seeks to guide overall spatial distribution of current and desirable land uses within a municipality, in order to give effect to the vision, goals and objectives of the municipal Integrated Development Plan.

exhibits long travelling distances and remote localities, due to the focus on natural resources, resulting in a dependence on infrastructure for export purposes and reaching national and international markets.

Although the region is characterised as both rural and peripheral, it is constitutionally obliged to have a capital city as one of nine South African provinces. In terms of the spatial context, the various spheres of growth centres, as defined in the Draft National Spatial Development Framework (Department of Rural Development and Land Reform, 2018) applicable to the Northern Cape, include a single urban region focused around Kimberley in PR3, and five regional growth centres (see Figure 5). Kimberley is located on the region’s eastern border and, in general, represents the only non-rural/peripheral area in the study area and is classified as part of the urban core. This region supports the national network of urban core regions and provides a link to national and international competitive advantages. Other regional growth centres as identified refer to areas/towns of significance in terms of scale, location, impact, diversity and agglomeration of function, which have a significant impact on the Northern Cape as a whole. These include:

a. Upington (including the subregions of Kakamas, Keimoes and Groblershoop) falls within PR1.

b. Springbok (including the subregions of Steinkopf, Okiep and smaller settlements within close proximity) and Calivinia within PR5.

c. Kuruman (including the sub-growth centres of Kathu and Olifantsfontein) within PR2.

d. De Aar in PR4.

4. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

This study measures the impact of three mechanisms of regional resilience in the peripheral region

in the Northern Cape province of South Africa. The study uses the pragmatic paradigm focused on the mixed methods research approach, in which qualitative and quantitative data are collected in parallel, analysed separately, and then merged (Creswell, 2014). It is important to realise that qualitative and quantitative approaches should not be viewed as opposites, but that they represent different ends of a continuum, i.e. a study tends to be more qualitative than quantitative, or vice versa (Du Toit, 2015: 65).

As a research paradigm, pragmatism orients itself toward solving practical problems in the real world (Shannon-Baker, 2016: 325). It also allows for descriptive analysis (Naoum, 2013: 104). In this study, service delivery and municipal audit records were used to build the theory on regional resilience, predicting that a regional resilience strategy or policy can be used to unlock regional resilience in peripheral South Africa. Socio-economic indices were used to measure the comparative advantage and level of information communication technology access of a planning region. The reason for collecting both quantitative and qualitative data is to elaborate on specific findings from the breakdown of the service delivery and municipal audit records, such as similar indicators showing the lack of regional resilience from the socio-economic indices (Creswell & Plano-Clark, 2007).

4.1 Data collectionData on the resilience mechanism, ‘sectoral composition’, was measured in terms of three internationally recognised indices, i.e. GVA (regional output by main industry), Tress Index, and Comparative Advantage (CA) (Wagner, 2000; Dissart, 2003). The primary source of GVA3 data on the regional level is the sectoral surveys conducted periodically by Statistics

3 GVA is the output of the country less than the intermediate consumption, which is the difference between gross output and net output (DBSA, 2001: 33). GVA can also be used to see how much value is added (or lost) from a particular region or province (DBSA, 2001: 33).

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PR5

PR1

PR2

PR3

PR4

Figure 5: Northern Cape province functional regions and spatial hierarchySource: Northern Cape Government, 2019: online


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South Africa (2018), from which the data for the 5 PRs were collected.

Data on the ‘innovation and knowledge network’ mechanism was measured by two main indicators (Godin, 2003: 673; Wagner & Leydesdorff, 2005, i.e. post-school education and training (PSET) and information communication technology (ICT) access by means of the ICT Access Index (IAI).4 Data collected for all these indicators are from the General Household Survey (GHS) and Census data collected and processed by Statistics South Africa (2015: 69). For the year in question, a total of 25,363 households formed part of the survey based on various selection criteria (Statistics South Africa, 2015) commonly utilised by Statistics South Africa since 2002 for this particular annual survey.5

The measurement of the ‘institutional component’ of the five PRs is informed by the annual national general audit outcome (Auditor General, 2019), as well as basic service delivery data (Van Aswegen, 2018; Demarcation Board, 2019) as indicators of institutional capacity (see section 2.1). Data collected includes general municipal audit outcomes for the five PRs; the progress made in terms of basic service provision; the presence and types of root causes for poor audit performance in each PR, and the level of assurance across seven levels of institutional role players.

4 Statistics South Africa developed the ICT Access Index (IAI) based on a composite international index (ICT Development Index (IDI)) developed by the International Telecommunications Union (ITU) but adapted to the availability of input variables in South Africa. Although the IAI is loosely based on the IDI, the two indices are also very different. The IDI, for instance, uses fixed and mobile broadband subscriptions per 100 inhabitants to measure internet access, while the IAI only considers the percentage of households with access to the internet (Statistics South Africa, 2015: 70).

5 The GHS has been conducted since 2002 by Stats SA and was specifically designed to measure the multiple facets of the living conditions of South African households. It covers six broad areas, namely education, health and social development, housing, household access to services and facilities, food security, and agriculture.

The study area reflects on three types of peripheral regions (semi-periphery, periphery, and deep periphery), with a specific focus on the five district municipalities (Category C) of the Northern Cape as the most prominent peripheral region (see Figure 4). For purposes of this article, the five planning regions (PR1-PR5) correlate with the formally demarcated subregional authority (district municipality). Access to comparable quantitative data becomes challenging beyond the confines of the municipal demarcation, thus the use of district municipalities as ‘planning regions’. This analysis mainly makes use of Standardised Regional Metadata, EasyData (Quantec, 2019). The data sets relate to an annual time series projected for the period 1995-2019, for 278 municipalities/ward-based regions (2011 demarcation). The data sets have been projected using various sources6 of statistical information.

4.2 Data analysis and interpretation of findings

To analyse the five planning regions (PR1-PR5) in terms of their regional resilience, descriptive statistics was used to generate and report the frequency and percentages of various resilience measurement outcomes within the three resilience mechanisms.

For the resilience mechanism ‘sectoral composition’, the GVA was calculated based on the internationally used formula to determine GVA, that is GVA=GDP+SP−TP, where SP represents subsidies on products, and TP represents taxes on products.

To determine the tress rating of each PR, each economic sector’s contribution (as percentage) to the GGP is calculated and subsequently ranked according to contribution. The sector with the highest contribution received the

6 Including, but not limited to Population Census time series; Community Survey Data; Household Survey Data; Labour Force Survey; Department Education Annual Data; Health Systems Trust; SARS International Trade (Quantec, 2019).

highest ranking, in this instance 22 for the 22 sectors measured. A weighted value is calculated for each sector by multiplying the percentage contribution with the ranking received. The sum total of the weighted values of the sectors is calculated. To obtain an index value (0 to 100), subtract x from the total and divide by y. Where x is the lowest potential total weighted value and y is the difference between the highest and lowest potential total weighted values by 100 (DBSA, 2001: 38). An increase in the Tress Index of a region reflects an increase in the dependence of the local economy on a single or a few economic activities and is an ostensibly negative trend (DBSA, 2001: 25). To generate the comparative advantage (CA) of each PR, the percentage contribution of a sector to GGP in a specific economy is divided by the percentage contribution of the same sector to the aggregate economy. The CA of a region indicates relatively more competitive production function for a product or services in that specific economy than in the aggregate (be it provincial or national) economy. The CA indicator is utilised to determine and investigate each PR’s sectoral strengths and weaknesses in relation to the economy at large, in this instance the provincial level and the national level (DBSA, 2001: 26).

Data analysis for the ‘innovation and knowledge network’ resilience mechanism used the IAI that combines 12 access indicators into a single benchmark measure, grouped in three sub-indices, i.e. active, passive, and readiness (Statistics South Africa, 2015: 68). The active sub-index measures the level of households’ access (as a percentage value) to relatively technologically advanced ICT assets (telephone, internet, and computers). The passive sub-index measures the level of households’ access to basic broadcasting services (television and radio) and mail (as a percentage value). The readiness sub-index measures households’ relative skill levels and the ability and access to utilise ICT (literacy, education as a percentage value). The active

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sub-index attributes to 65%, the passive sub-index to 20%, and the readiness index to 15% of the IAI (Statistics South Africa, 2015: 70). The sub-index value was calculated by taking the simple sum (using equal weights) of the indicator values. The final index value was then computed by summing the weighted sub-indices (Statistics South Africa, 2015: 70). The IAI is further supported by data on the attainment of post-school education and training (PSET), which plays a substantial role in the extent and quality of the knowledge network system, as well as the region’s ability to attract and attain knowledge. PSET data was obtained from the Northern Cape Department of Education (2018 10-37).

Data analysis of the ‘institutional component’ of the five PRs used the indicator ‘general audit outcome’ that was derived from the Annual Audit Report for municipalities across South Africa, which indicates a municipality as improved, stagnant or regressed from the previous year’s outcome within a 5% range of change. This is based on the Auditor General’s audit in six key areas, namely supply chain management; quality of performance reports; quality of financial statements; information technology controls; financial health, and resource management. The second indicator regarding service delivery indicates the percentage of households with no access to the three types of basic services (water, electricity, and sewage) based on secondary data (Demarcation Board, 2019). Thirdly, the ‘root causes’ indicator is represented as a binary notation of “0” or “1”. The notation “1” is indicative of the presence of the specific root cause for poor audit performance, and “0” indicates that the root cause is not present in the specific PR. The Auditor General identifies these three root causes as the main contributors to poor economic and administrative performance across all 278 municipalities in South Africa (Auditor General, 2019: 5). The three root causes have been identified as key positions vacant or key officials lacking appropriate competencies;

lack of consequences for poor performance and transgressions, and slow response by political leadership in addressing poor audit outcomes. The final indicator is also derived from the Auditor General’s Annual Report and represents the ‘level of assurance’7 provided by the identified role players within each municipality. The accountability of local government for their actions, performance, financial management, and compliance with legislation serves as a cornerstone of democratic governance in South Africa (Auditor General, 2019: 115) and is measured by means of this indicator. Various role players in the public sector contribute to the credibility of financial and performance information and compliance with legislation, by ensuring that adequate internal controls are implemented at auditees. The seven role players recorded are those directly involved with the management of the municipality (management/leadership assurance); those who perform an oversight/governance function, either as an internal governance function or as an external monitoring function (internal independent assurance and oversight), and the independent assurance providers who provide an objective assessment of the municipality’s reporting (external independent assurance and oversight). The role players include senior management; municipal manager; mayor; audit committee; internal audit committee; municipal council, and municipal public accounts committee. The level

7 Internationally accepted standard for the audit of public and private institutions, as defined by ISO/IEC 29115 Standard.

of assurance provided by the seven role players was assessed, based on the status of internal controls of municipalities and the impact of the different role players on the controls, and is indicated as a municipality providing assurance; some assurance, and no assurance, as a numerical value out of 7 (see Table 3).

An integrated analysis of the above will, in turn, be translated into policy instruments to strengthen growth potential, with an emphasis on balancing the three mechanisms of regional resilience. It is envisaged that this analysis could practically inform local spatial strategies (Local Economic Development and Spatial Development Frameworks), provincial planning policies (Provincial Growth and Development Strategy and Provincial Spatial Development Framework), and national budget allocation (Industrial Development Zones and Special Economic Zones) through regional policy instruments (see section 2.3).

4.3 LimitationsA macro policy design response, based on the characteristics of the regions in terms of resilience indicators, was proposed. A detailed policy response can be similarly deduced for each planning region and for the province as a whole – this is not the aim of this article.

5. FINDINGS AND DISCUSSION

The study area reflects the three peripheral regions, as illustrated in Figure 3, i.e. semi-periphery, periphery, and deep periphery.

Table 1: Sectoral composition indicators Sectoral composition Indicator PR1 PR2 PR3 PR4 PR5

GVA

Primary 28.52% 48.53% 12.57% 18.32% 44.70%

Secondary 12.50% 7.90% 11.41% 13.00% 8.91%

Tertiary 58.98% 43.57% 76.02% 68.69% 46.39%

Tress Index 41.6 63.3 42 38.5 60.8

Comparative Advantage (22 industries)

Provincial 10 2 17 12 2

National 5 1 8 8 2

Source: Own compilation derived from Quantec, 2017: online


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Figure 4 illustrates that PR4 is by far the most peripheral of the five regions, with five of its eight municipalities classified as ‘deep periphery’. PR1 has an even distribution of four of the five types of regions, whereas PR3 illustrates extremes of two ‘inner core’ municipalities, and two ‘deep periphery’ classified municipalities. PR2, PR4 and PR5 do not exhibit any form of core municipal areas.

5.1 Economic sectoral composition

The economic sectoral composition and regional dependence on the three main sectors has been established as pivotal to regional dynamics, regional resilience, and regional policy approaches (see section 2.2). Table 1 indicates that the sectoral composition of PR1, PR3 and PR4 shows less dependence on the primary sector, ranging between 13% and 29%. PR2 and PR5 have a very high dependence on the primary sector as largest contributor to the regional GVA at 49% and 45%, as measured by GVA. As highlighted in the literature, such a strong dependence on a single sector will have a negative impact on the resilience of a region.

The increase of the Tress Index of a region reflects an increase in the dependence of the local economy on a single or a few economic activities. It can be inferred that the closer the PR’s economies are to 100, the less resilient they are to economic sector-specific shocks. From the analysis, the lack of diversification in all five PRs is clearly visible, especially PR5 and PR2 with visible single-sector domination, rendering these more vulnerable to sector-specific shocks. PR4 shows higher

levels of economic diversification. The CA indicator (Table 1) illustrates that, on a provincial level, PR3 has the highest number of industries (17 out of a possible 22), in which it has an advantage, followed by PR2 (12) and PR1 (10). On a national level, it is highlighted that PR3 and PR4 show significant advantage in eight industries each, followed by PR1 with five industries of comparative advantage. The identification of sectors of competitive advantage will assist in policy recommendations to reinforce those industries showing economic promise and potential as growth centres.

5.2 Innovation and knowledge network

The extent of the innovation and knowledge network within the peripheral region has proved to be pivotal in the overall resilience of such region (see section 2). In terms of the post-school education indicator, PR3 is the only PR with both a Higher Education Institute (HEI) and Technical and Vocational Education and Training (TVET), with PR1 having the only other TVET. The IAI scores provided in Table 2 illustrate a composite weighted score for the sub-indices (active, passive, and readiness), to determine the relative contribution (out of a possible ten) of each of the sub-indices to the total score. All five PRs show similar low levels of active access (thus low levels of adaptation) varying between 2.36 and 2.69, whereas PR3 and PR5 have remarkably more focus on the passive access indicators (post, radio, television). The focus of the results is specifically on the ‘readiness’ sub-index as indicative of potential rapid absorption of new technology and initiatives towards

enhanced resilience. This IAI provides a basis for policymaking to focus on maximising the opportunities in ICT in the study area. PR3 is highlighted as the PR with the highest readiness-index composition (mid to high levels of adaptability), which could be interpreted as an opportune region for intervention in terms of policy focused on heightened innovation.

5.3 Government institutionsGovernment institutions are pertinent throughout the research. Leadership within the institutional milieu has been highlighted as one of the main impacting factors, as well as institutional arrangement, the adaptive capacity of government, their responsiveness to demand, and cautious spending of budgets.8 In Table 3, all five of the PRs forming part of the analysis are classified as stagnant or showing too little progress in terms of the annual general audit (Auditor General, 2019). This overall regression confirms the message of poor accountability and poor leadership by mayors, municipal managers, and senior managers (Auditor General, 2019) as assurance providers. The percentage of households within each PR with no access to basic services is highlighted in the 3rd row. PR2 has the highest aggregate lack of services (47%), followed by PR1 (25%), PR3 (24%), PR4 (22%) and PR5 (21%). The South African average pertaining to the lack of services is calculated at 40%, which indicates that only PR2 is worse off than the national average.

As highlighted in section 2.3, the delivery of infrastructure and social services is considered an instrument of regional policy that could assist in increasing institutional resilience. In an attempt to identify the issues within each PR relating to institutional accountability, the presence of a specific root cause

8 The article does not aspire to include the muddled and complex politics within the country or the study area. It has an apolitical focus on comparative and available statistics with regard to institutional leadership, adaptive capacity, service delivery, and assurance to the public.

Table 2: Innovation and knowledge network indicatorsInnovation and

knowledge network Indicator PR1 PR2 PR3 PR4 PR5

PSETHEI 0 0 1 0 0TVET 1 0 1 0 0

IAIActive (out of ten) 2.64 2.49 2.81 2.36 2.69Passive (out of ten) 6.21 5.67 7.39 6.94 7.21Readiness (out of ten) 4.63 4.99 5.05 4.54 4.37

Source: Own compilation derived from Statistics South Africa, 2015; Quantec, 2017: online

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within the PR is illustrated as a binary notation of “1”, or “0”, if the specific cause for concern is not present. PR1 is the only PR indicated as having progressed in terms of this indicator and only one root cause concern to be addressed, being the slow response by leaders.

PR5 is indicated as demonstrating all three of the root causes of poor audit outcomes, thus needing immediate intervention. PR2 and PR3 show instability of vacancies in key positions, as well as slow response in improving internal controls as main causes for the lack of performance. PR4 has vacant positions and a lack of consequences to blame for its poor operation. This highlights areas for potential policy intervention to increase the institutional capacity of the various PRs. The ‘levels of assurance’ indicator refers to the assurance put in each role player to effectively address the causes identified within the audit report (see section 4.2). Within each PR, seven role players are identified as responsible entities, i.e. senior management, municipal manager, mayor, internal auditor, audit committee, municipal council, and municipal public accounts committee. Within PR1 and PR3, five role players in each were observed as providing assurance to be able to address the six key areas of concern identified by the Auditor General (see section 4.2) within the PR. PR4 and PR5 both exhibit poor levels of

assurance, with three levels of actors not providing assurance to the public. PR2 did not fare well, with only five levels providing some assurance, and two levels not providing any assurance. This highlights a need to establish more effective, responsible and accountable actors within the institutional environment, as well as the exact level of governance, in this instance the Municipal Council and the Municipal Public Accounts Committee, where intervention is most urgently needed.

Based on the findings, PR1 is acknowledged as the most stable and resilient of the five PRs. It has been established to have comparative advantage in ten provincial and five national economic sectors and is the PR with the highest institutional assurance levels on five of the seven levels of institutional role players. One of two PSET institutions is found within PR1, which provides a basis to strengthen the innovation and knowledge network mechanism. PR1 is mostly dependent on the tertiary sector (59.98%), which is not as vulnerable to economic shocks and fluctuating commodity prices. Basic service provision is overall acceptable, but the provision of sewage services needs attention.

PR2 is highlighted as the only PR experiencing an economic downturn during the economic recession, which was ascribed to the high dependence on the primary sector

(63.3 Tress). This renders the region more vulnerable to external shocks in terms of primary sector dependence. The region exhibits limited comparative advantage and an overall stagnant institutional environment, with only some assurance in most of the institutional role players. Relative low levels of active ICT access are visible, supported by high levels of readiness for innovation. PR2 exhibits the worst levels of non-compliance in both water and sewage services.

Within PR3, a strong dependence on the tertiary sector is highlighted, and the sectoral composition exhibits strong national (eight industries) and provincial (17 industries) comparative advantage. The innovation indicators are the highest of the PRs, but a very large passive access is visible, which inhibits knowledge gain and transfer.

Within PR4, a similar national comparative advantage in eight industries is experienced as in PR3 and 12 industries on provincial level. PR3 exhibits mostly large passive access to technology, and low levels of active access. The readiness indicator is, however, high and provides the opportunity to focus on strengthening the innovation and knowledge network mechanisms, especially since two PSET institutions are present in this PR. PR3 also illustrates higher levels of assurance in most of the institutional role players.

PR4 exhibits national comparative advantage in eight industries, as well as 12 industries on the provincial level. This PR has a Tress Index of 38.5, with a strong focus on the tertiary sector. PR4 is highlighted as the best-faring in terms of basic service delivery. PR4 exhibits a worrying level of zero assurance (four out of seven) in the government institutions and exhibits two out of three of the root cause concerns identified for poor performance. The root cause concerns include vacant key positions as well as slow response by leaders within the PR. Similar levels of access to ICT are observed

Table 3: Government institutions indicatorsGovernment institutions Indicator PR1 PR2 PR3 PR4 PR5

General Audit outcome Stagnant Stagnant Stagnant Stagnant Stagnant

Basic services (% with no access)

Electricity (no electricity) 15.0% 12.2% 17.5% 14.3% 10.7%

Water (no access) 15.0% 49.3% 16.9% 11.1% 4.9%Sewage (no access) 38.2% 64.4% 26.9% 35.3% 44.4%

Root causes (three)

Vacant positions/ Competence 0 1 1 1 1

Lack of consequences 0 0 0 0 1

Slow response by leaders 1 1 1 1 1

Level of assurance(seven levels)

Assurance 5 0 5 0 0Some assurance 1 5 1 3 4No/limited assurance 1 2 1 4 3

Source: Own compilation from Auditor General, 2019; Quantec, 2017: online


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in PR4, with the overwhelming focus on passive access to ICT.

PR5 illustrates a very high dependence on the primary and tertiary sectors with a Tress Index of 60.8. Similar to PR2, very few industries illustrate an economic comparative advantage. PR5 exhibits all three root cause concerns as identified by the Auditor General and three of the institutional role players provide no assurance. In terms of basic service provision, the lack of sewage infrastructure is highlighted as concerning. Similar to the other PRs, the levels of active access to ICT are low, and PR5 exhibits the lowest level of readiness towards enhanced access.

6. POLICY PROPOSALS Based on the conceptual framework and findings in Tables 1 to 3, a practical approach is proposed that includes broad policy and detailed strategic instruments, focusing on de-locking each PR into an inclusive more resilient peripheral region.

Policy instruments to prevent further regional lock-in (see section 2) are crucial to the success of these instruments to develop and adjust policy in an innovative manner to localised needs and unique challenges. It is proposed that the resilience mechanisms of peripheral regions, in general, be measured to first determine the most vulnerable resilience mechanism. In focusing attention on the weakest mechanism, the entire region’s strength and robustness will be enhanced and become more balanced (Van Aswegen, 2018). The stability of all three mechanisms is key to enhanced resilience. The main policy proposals regarding the three resilience mechanisms are informed by the contents of the conceptual framework (see section 2) and adapted to fit with the findings of the study area analysis (see section 5), and illustrated in Figure 6.

In terms of economic sectoral composition, it is proposed that peripheral regions focus on the identification of industries

emphasising the region’s specific competitive advantage. This will entail spatial place-based actions to establish and support propulsive industries in selected growth poles (see section 2.3). More specifically, the policy proposals on economic sectoral composition of the 5 PRs are focused on enhancing regional economic growth poles as identified in the analysis to establish a strong regional core; focusing on establishing and enhancing existing related variety between industries, and the diversification of the economic sectors with comparative advantage on a regional, but more specifically, a national level (see Table 1).

The proposals on the innovation and knowledge networks mechanism are focused on regions with a proven readiness for innovation (see Table 2), establishing a well-developed knowledge-network structure with a typical core-periphery structure focused on PSET, and a focus on skills training in related industries, as identified in the comparative advantage analysis, in order to enhance related variety.

Proposals focused on the government institutions mechanism (see Table 3) are proposed to establish a government headed by strong leaders equipped to manage the intricate trade-offs between adaptation and adaptability; focused on accountability through a reimagined institutional arrangement across regional borders in the form of a Regional Development Agency (RDA), and focused on basic service delivery across all settlements. In an attempt to deconcentrate national responsibilities to the regional level, regional development agencies (RDAs) have been used successfully across various countries (Ribot, 2003; Sayer, Elliott, Barrow, Gretzinger, Maginnis, McShane & Shepherd, 2004; European Commission, 2020) to instate and organise the delivery of policies within specific target areas as a vertical integration tool between national and local government. According to the OECD (2016), these RDAs are typically held accountable by the regional level of government; act separately from the traditional spheres of government, and often focus on a specialised field of business development or innovation in a place-based approach.

Figure 6: Policy focus for regional resilience in the peripheral region Source: Own

REGIONAL RESILIENCE POLICY PROPOSALS

Economic sectoral compositon

Economic growth-pole & corridor focus

Related variety focus

Economic diversification focus in areas of

comparative advantage

Innovation and knowledge networks

Innovation readiness focus

PSET focus in core of knowledge network

Skills training in related industries

Government institutions

Leadership focus on provincial and local levels

Accountability focus through regional development

Agency

Service delivery focus

PR2

PR2

PR1

All PR

PR1

PR1

PR3

PR4

PR5

PR2

PR2

PR2

All PR

PR3

PR3

PR4

PR4

PR5

PR5

Figure 6: Policy focus for regional resilience in the peripheral regionSource: Own compilation

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RDAs are often found not to be focused on a specific functional region, but on interregional partnerships and spillovers, as would typically be needed in the study area.

To illustrate these policy proposals on a PR level, the following more localised proposals are made. The analysis of PR1 established the innovation and knowledge networks mechanism as the focus of resilience policy in the region. This is proposed to be by means of enhancing the active access to ICT through improved internet connections and access to technology. PR1 has a national comparative advantage in five economic sectors.

The focus should be on strengthening those within the secondary sector in an attempt to focus more on local economic development and establishing a related variety focus. As the only PR with a TVET centre, skills training in the secondary sector with established related variety, is proposed. Investment in basic service delivery is proposed, especially with regard to sewage services.

The economic sectoral composition of the PRs shows that PR2 needs immediate focus on this mechanism, due to the high dependence on the primary sector (especially mining) and lack of diversification. A hybrid approach is proposed with the strengthening of the growth centre (see section 2.2) in Kuruman as well as corridor focus on the N14 passing through the proposed growth centre. PR2 should focus on establishing and supporting sectors of related variety to the strong mining sector, in which PR2 has a national competitive advantage. The main focus should be on establishing a stronger secondary sector in the region through establishing manufacturing industries, rather than only exporting the raw material. Kuruman is further recognised as a regional growth pole (NSDF, 2018) and, therefore, financial support from national and provincial government can be expected. PR2 also exhibits a high readiness to ICT access (see Table 2), which provides an opportunity to focus on strengthening

the innovation and knowledge networks mechanism. As example, the focus will typically be on training in industries related to the mining and related manufacturing industry by means of establishing a skills training centre within the region. This will further solidify the role of the region and enhance the focus on its national comparative advantage. PR2 is highlighted as having very poor levels of service delivery, especially in terms of water and sewage services. Investment in these infrastructure services will assist in strengthening the mechanism and highlight a more accountable government.

PR3 has been established as the only region with non-peripheral regions within its boundaries. The region is more economically established and is overall regarded as the most resilient of the five PRs. PR3’s weakest resilience mechanism is the government institution, and a service delivery focus is proposed. The strong innovation and knowledge networks mechanism should be further enhanced with a focus on PSET in sectors of national comparative advantage.

PR4 is the region with the least resilient institutional sector, illustrated through poor assurance from the government institutions. It is proposed that PR4 should focus on skills training and capacity-building in the institutional environment, as well as on investment in basic infrastructure.

In PR5, a stronger focus is proposed on the industries with national advantage in especially the secondary sector. This should take place in the existing growth centres (Springbok and Calvinia), in order to strengthen these rural centres. PR5 further exhibits a strong dependence on passive ICT, which should be addressed through the investment in active ICT access. As with the other four PRs, the institutional mechanism needs immediate attention, especially in terms of providing accountable and capable leadership. Investment in basic infrastructure service delivery with a focus on

sewage services is proposed to further enhance this mechanism.

7. CONCLUSION In recognition of evolutionary regional resilience, three mechanisms were highlighted as influencing the balancing act between adaptation and adaptability, i.e. economic sectoral composition, innovation and knowledge networks, and government institutions. It is recognised that, for a state of efficient balance between adaptation and adaptability, the tension between each of the mechanisms also needs to be in simultaneous equilibrium with one another, in effect “operating at the edge of chaos” in this balancing act (Pascale, 1999: 92). This will prevent both regional lock-in and regional stagnation.

The quantitative analysis provided insight into the unique challenges of each PR, as identified within peripheral South Africa. The analysis of indicators of the resilience mechanisms allows for a more specific and practical policy approach to strengthening the single mechanisms of each PR into an inclusive, more robust peripheral region.

The aim of this article was to determine and propose a developmental policy approach towards a more resilient peripheral Northern Cape province by means of three identified mechanisms of regional resilience. A regional developmental approach through spatial targeting within growth centres and along development corridors, and through a continuous strive towards a dynamic stability between the three mechanisms, will establish a more integrated regional system of core- and periphery-interaction. Through a process of decentralised concentration (utilising the policy instruments) in both regional growth centres (regional level) and growth points (subregional level), the resilience capacity of the peripheral region will be enriched. The focus on decentralised concentration in an allocative and innovative manner,


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will potentially yield a peripheral region with a dynamic relationship between unbalanced spatial development and inclusive socio-economic development. In support hereto, institutional collective action by a responsive and accountable local and regional government, operating beyond their functional limits, will reinforce and amplify development in the peripheral region.

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How to cite: Hosea, P. & Khalema, E. 2020. Scoping the nexus between climate change and water-security realities in rural South Africa. Town and Regional Planning, no.77, pp. 18-30.



Dr Patrick Hosea (corresponding author), Post-Doctoral Fellow (Global Migration and Community Development), School of Built Environment & Development Studies, College of Humanities, University of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Phone: 27312601449, email: <[email protected]>, ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8022-9099.Prof. Ernest Nene Khalema, Dean and Head of the School of Built Environment & Development Studies, College of Humanities, University of KwaZulu-Natal, C872 Denis Shepstone Building (Howard College), Mazisi Kunene Road, Glenwood, Durban, 4041, South Africa. Phone: +2731 260 1759, email: <[email protected]>, ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6353-46897.

Scoping the nexus between climate change and water-security realities in rural South Africa

Patrick Hosea & Ernest Khalema


Peer reviewed and revised October 2020



Abstract While the global response to climate change has been scant and uncoordinated, especially with regard to providing adequate water resources for the most improvised, water scarcity has become an increasingly neglected phenomenon in rural areas. The long-term imbalance resulting from the water demand exceeding the available water resources has been identified in the literature, with the majority of rural dwellers negatively affected by water scarcity. Using a scoping review technique to explore the nexus between climate change and water-security realities in view of coping and planning mechanisms in the South African context, 246,443 articles published between 2010 and 2019 were collated and reviewed in a bid to ascertain the state of knowledge, study, and focus on the coping and planning strategies adopted by rural communities in the face of climate change-induced water insecurity in South Africa. The identified gaps in the literature indicate the omission of spatial planning principles in responding to water-scarcity issues. This review concludes that, although policy research that links the impacts of climate change in rural communities exists, stronger focus on the quality and quantity issues in the implementation of water-security matters is critical. Hence, the impact of climate change on climate-sensitive supplies available in these rural areas as well as the consequent coping and planning alternatives for rural communities require a more robust policy and spatial research. Thus, as rural communities deal with the impacts of climate change, implementation cycles of water-security measures need to be ensured along with further integration of spatial planning issues in rural areas. Hence, a deeper engagement with spatial planning issues is needed, in order to further mitigate and address the impacts of climate change on water security in rural areas.Keywords: Climate change, coping strategies, rural communities, spatial planning, water security

OMVANGSBEPALING TUSSEN KLIMAATSVERANDERING EN WATERVEILIGHEIDSWERKLIKHEID OP DIE PLATTELAND VAN SUID-AFRIKAAlhoewel die wêreldwye reaksie op klimaatsverandering maar skraps en ongekoördineerd is, veral met betrekking tot die verskaffing van voldoende waterbronne vir die mees

geïmproviseerde, het waterskaarste ’n toenemend verwaarloosde verskynsel in landelike gebiede geword. Die langtermynwanbalans as gevolg van waterbehoefte wat die beskikbare waterbronne oorskry, is in die literatuur geïdentifiseer, terwyl die meeste landelike inwoners negatief geraak is deur waterskaarste. Met behulp van ’n bestekopname-hersieningstegniek om die verband tussen klimaatsverandering en waterveiligheidsrealiteite te ondersoek in die lig van die hanterings- en beplanningsmeganisme in die Suid-Afrikaanse konteks, is 246,443 artikels wat tussen 2010 en 2019 verskyn het, saamgevat en hersien in ’n poging om die stand van kennis, studie en fokus op die hanterings- en beplanning strategieë wat deur landelike gemeenskappe aangeneem is, vas te stel in die lig van klimaatsverandering wat wateronsekerheid in Suid-Afrika veroorsaak. Die geïdentifiseerde leemtes in die literatuur verwys na die weglating van beginsels vir ruimtelike beplanning om te reageer op kwessies oor waterskaarste. Hierdie oorsig kom tot die gevolgtrekking dat, hoewel daar beleidsnavorsing bestaan wat die gevolge van klimaatsverandering in landelike gemeen skappe verbind, is ’n sterk fokus op die kwaliteit- en kwantiteitskwessies by die implementering van watersekerheids-aangeleenthede van kritieke belang. Die impak van klimaatsverandering op klimaatsensitiewe voorrade wat beskikbaar is in hierdie landelike gebiede, sowel as die gevolglike alternatiewe vir die hantering en beplanning van landelike gemeenskappe vereis dus kragtiger beleid en ruimtelike navorsing. Aangesien landelike gemeenskappe die gevolge van klimaatsverandering hanteer, moet die implementeringssiklusse van waterse-kuriteitsmaatreëls verseker word, tesame met verdere integrasie van ruimtelike beplanningskwessies in landelike gebiede. Daarom is ’n dieper betrokkenheid by kwessies oor ruimtelike beplanning nodig om die gevolge van klimaatsverandering op die watersekuriteit in landelike gebiede verder te verminder en aan te spreek.Sleutelwoorde: Hanterings strategieë, klimaats verandering, landelike ge-meen skappe, ruimtelike beplanning, water veiligheid

Patrick Hosea & Ernest Khalema • Scoping the nexus between climate change and water-security realities in rural South Africa

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HO LEKOLA KHOKAHANO LIPAKENG TSA PHETOHO EA MAEMO A LEHOLIMO LE MAEMO A TS’IRELETSO EA METSI MAHAENG A AFRIKA BOROALe ha mehato ea lefats’e mabapi le phetoho ea maemo a leholimo e le nyane ebile e sa hokahanngoa, haholoholo mabapi le ho fana ka metsi a lekaneng ho karolo ea sechaba e futsanehileng ka ho fetesisa, khaello ea metsi e se e le ntho e hlokomolohuoang haholo libakeng tsa mahaeng. Ho se lekalekane ha nako e telele ho bakoang ke tlhokeho ea metsi ho feta mehloli ea metsi e fumanehang, ho fumanoe lingoliloeng, mme boholo ba baahi ba mahaeng ba anngoe hampe ke khaello ea metsi. Ho sebelisa mokhoa oa ho lekola khokahano lipakeng tsa phetoho ea maemo a leholimo le maemo a polokeho ea metsi ka khokahanyo le mekhoa ea ho sebetsana le ho rala maemong a Afrika Boroa, lingoloa tse 246,443 tse phatlalalitsoeng lipakeng tsa 2010 le 2019 li ile tsa bokelloa le ho hlahlojoa ka sepheo sa ho netefatsa boemo ba tsebo , ho ithuta, le ho tsepamisa maikutlo mokhoeng oa ho sebetsana le merero e amoheloang ke sechaba sa mahaeng ha ba tobane le ts’ireletso ea metsi e bakoang ke phetoho ea maemo a leholimo Afrika Boroa. Likheo tse khethiloeng ka har’a lingoliloeng li supa ho siuoa hoa metheo ea moralo oa sebaka ho arabela litaba tsa khaello ea metsi. Tlhatlhobo ena e phethela ka hore, leha patlisiso ea maano e hokahanyang litlamorao tsa phetoho ea maemo a leholimo metseng ea mahaeng e le teng, ho tsepamisoa maikutlo ho matla ho boleng le bongata ba ts’ebetsong ts’ebetsong ea litaba tsa ts’ireletso ea metsi ho bohlokoa. Kahoo, tshutshumetso ea phetoho ea maemo a leholimo holima lisebelisoa tse amanang le maemo a leholimo, tse fumanehang libakeng tsena tsa mahaeng hammoho le mekhoa e meng e sebetsanang le maemo le meralo bakeng sa sechaba sa mahaeng e hloka leano le matla le lipatlisiso tse lekolang libaka ka kotloloho. Kahoo, ha sechaba sa mahaeng se sebetsana le litlamorao tsa phetoho ea maemo a leholimo, methati ea ts’ireletso ea metsi e hloka ho netefatsoa hammoho le kopanyo e tsoelang pele ea litaba tsa moralo oa libaka libakeng tsa mahaeng. Kahoo, ho hlokahala hore ho be le puisano e tebileng le litaba tsa moralo oa libaka, molemong oa ho fokotsa le ho sebetsana le litlamorao tsa phetoho ea maemo a leholimo ho ts’ireletso ea metsi libakeng tsa mahaeng.

1. INTRODUCTIONWater is essential for life, livelihood, and livelihood support. The right to water is enshrined in the Constitution of South Africa (Edokpayi, Enitan-Folami, Adeeyo, Durowoju, Jegede & Odiyo, 2020: 187; Eman & Meško, 2020). However, ensuring the enforcement of such rights in the face of the impact of climate change requires systematic thinking in terms of water security (Edokpayi et al., 2020: 187; Millington & Scheba, 2020: 5). There is global scientific consensus on the significant hydrological alteration that climate change will evoke (Honkonen, 2017: 7; Babel, Shinde, Sharma & Dang, 2020: 1). However, the direction, magnitude, and impact of climate change on the global, regional, and local communities is largely unclear (Liuzzo & Freni, 2019: 2, 13; Haile, Tang, Hosseini‐Moghari, Liu, Gebremicae, Leng et al., 2020: 5). Cisneros (2015: 12-13), among others, asserted that the impact of climate change will predominantly be water related. Despite the continuous efforts by actors on the global, regional, national, and local levels on mitigation and adaptation to climate impacts especially on water, the situation of water (in)security seems to increase rather than diminish. The response in terms of coping mechanisms and strategies1 of individuals and societies alike to these uncertainties in Africa and other developing communities, especially in the global south, are, in most instances, blurred.

The case of South Africa’s water security and the impending impact of climate change have become a policy, socio-economic and research concern. The need for spatial planning targeted at coordinating or “integration of the spatial dimension of sectoral policies through a territorially based

1 George et al. (2016) conceptualised a coping strategy as specific behavioural and/or psychological actions undertaken by people as responses in an effort to reduce, minimize or endure a stressful event. Within this discourse, we imply the spatial planning principles and strategies in responding to water-scarcity issues.

strategy” (Cameron & Katzschner, 2017: 200), and coping mechanism especially in rural communities in the face of these climate-change realities are enormous. This follows Rohr, Cilliers and Fourie’s (2017: 13) postulation that work on spatial planning that focuses on sustainable water management is considerably limited. It becomes imperative to ascertain the state of knowledge, study, and focus on the coping and planning strategies adopted by rural communities in the face of climate change-induced water insecurity in South Africa.

It is pertinent to note that, while South Africa’s approach to climate change has been to establish governance frameworks such as the National Planning Commission Medium Term Strategic Framework, 2009-2014; the National Development Plan, 2011; the Department of Environmental Affairs National Climate Change Response, 2012, and the Carbon Tax Policy, 2013, among others, studies show that these policies are yet to be translated into everyday practice among the South African populace, especially in the rural communities (Ziervogel, New, Archer van Garderen, Midgley, Taylor, Hamann et al., 2014: 614; Patrick, 2020: 2). It has also been observed that water shortages have already been experienced in five of the 19 water-management areas in South Africa, with over 6,500 rural communities facing acute water shortages (Von-Bormann, 2014: 8-9; Patrick, 2019: 50). Action Aid (2016: 5) projects a 17% gap in water supply and demand by 2030, with cities such as Johannesburg, Pretoria, Cape Town, and Durban experiencing the greatest challenge in water management.

Ziervogel et al. (2014: 610) argued that, in a bid to reconcile the water supply-and-demand gap in South Africa, it is imperative to increase the available water supply by about 2.5km3 and decrease water withdrawal by 0.57km3 by 2030. Although this intervention may slow the imminent water stress, it is, however, argued that water demand will exceed supply annually through

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to 2035 (Mander, Jewitt, Dini, Glenday, Blignaut, Hughes et al., 2017: 263; Nieuwoudt, Grundling, Du Toit & Tererai, 2018: 27; Mabhaudhi, Nhamo, Mpandeli, Nhemachena, Senzanje, Sobratee et al., 2019: 2). Similarly, Du Plessis (2017: 67) posited that, while the country is experiencing a multifaceted water crisis, it will experience a doubling of its total requirement for water in three decades, due to continuous demographic growth, economic development, and urbanisation. Eman and Meško (2020); Millington and Scheba (2020: 1-3); Haile et al. (2020: 18-19), and Zubaidi, Ortega-Martorell, Al-Bugharbee, Olier, Hashim, Gharghan et al. (2020: 2, 3), among others, also argue that water security is a function of population growth, resources depletion, and structural factors. The above situation portrays a looming sociopolitical and economic challenge, especially in terms of the water security of rural communities in South Africa.

This article reviews the impact of climate change and water security in South Africa, with a focus on the response mechanism for rural communities in view of the dynamic and historical configuration of the South African state. The essence is not to proffer solutions to water insecurity and the climate change nexus, but rather to provoke responses as well as set a background for contextualizing the nature and rationale for coping mechanisms in the face of the impact of climate change on water security in South Africa.

2. METHODS AND REVIEW APPROACH

The article adopts a scoping review technique to explore the nexus between climate change and water-security realities in view of the coping and planning mechanism adopted in the South African context. In this sense, a scoping review is regarded as a technique in mapping and summarizing evidence-based research targeted at identifying the priorities and gaps of a research phenomenon, in order to inform a

policy review and future research (Munn, Peters, Stern, Tufanaru, McArthur & Aromataris, 2018: 2-3; Ienca, Ferretti, Hurst, Puhan, Lovis & Vayena, 2018: 3). The approach involves the identification of the central research question for the study. In this case, the study seeks to answer the question: What is the state of knowledge, study, and focus on the coping and planning strategies adopted by rural communities in the face of climate change-induced water insecurity in South Africa? To do this, there was the need to identify and select relevant studies, data charting, and the collation of summaries and reports using a bibliometric analysis (Ienca et al., 2018: 3-5).

The process led to the gathering and critical review of studies, grey literature, and online information between 2010 and 2019. The study used Google Scholar, ISI, ProQuest, and Scopus search engines to locate these studies, using keywords such as ‘climate change’, ‘water security’, ‘planning’, and ‘coping strategies’, in general. These keywords were then merged to include ‘Africa’ and ‘South Africa’, in particular. Table 1 shows that, from the 246,443 articles that were recorded for climate change, 66,106 articles dwelt on climate change and water, in general. The review was narrowed down to 3,161 articles that dealt with climate change and water security, and further to 472 articles that discussed climate change, water security, and planning. In addition, from the search, only 38 articles dwelt on all the keywords in relation to Africa. It is interesting to note that of the 105 articles on climate change, water, and planning in South Africa, only 10 studies discussed climate change and

water security per se in relation to planning in South Africa (Ziervogel, Shale & Du, 2010: 94-110; Mander et al., 2017: 261-271; Nieuwoudt et al., 2018: 26; Papadouris & Thopil, 2018: 1767-1780; Mabhaudhi et al., 2019: 14; Rodina, 2019: 10-16). Only eight articles discussed adaptation in South Africa (Kahinda, Taigbenu & Boroto, 2010: 742-750; Ziervogel et al., 2010: 97-105; Myers, Gaffikin, Golden, Ostfeld, Redford, Ricketts et al., 2013: 18753-18760; Mabhaudhi, Chimonyo & Modi, 2017: 2-17; Mabhaudhi et al., 2019: 2-16; Rodina, 2019: 11-15). The review adopted convenience sampling to analyse and discuss n=472 articles that focused on climate change, water security, and planning. The data were triangulated with document reviews and organisational documents and analysed for meaning and relevance to the research question, using thematic content analysis. The guiding theme was the use of keywords such as ‘climate change’, ‘water security’, ‘planning’, and ‘adaptation’ as guiding themes. This provided a contextual background that explored the coping and planning mechanisms available for rural communities in South Africa in view of the climate change and water security nexus.

3. KEY ISSUESTo provide a context for the review, a brief conceptualization of climate change is imperative at this stage. Climate change refers to all forms of changes in climatic consistency, regardless of their statistical nature or physical cause, over a long period (Patrick, 2019: 17). It is viewed as what we experience when there is an upward or downward permanent shift

Table 1: Summary of articles searchKeywords combination Number of articles

Climate change 246,443Climate change + Water 66,106Climate change + Water security 3,161Climate change + Water security + Planning 472Climate change + Water security + Planning + Africa 38Climate change + Water + Planning + South Africa 105Climate change + Water security + Planning + South Africa 10Climate change + Water security + Planning + Adaptation + South Africa 8


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of the average weather conditions in geographical space and time. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2014: 120) defines climate change as

“…a change in the state of the climate which can be identified by the changes in the mean and/or the variability of its properties, that persist for an extended period of time, typically decades or longer. It refers to any change in climate over time whether due to natural variability or a result of human activity.”

From this definition, climate change is viewed as a long-term, gradual, but continuous change in the mean average weather conditions of the earth’s surface, and as a significant alteration in climate patterns over a long period of time, which may be due to human and natural causes (Liuzzo & Freni, 2019: 2). Climate change thus manifests itself through changes in climatic variables such as the increase in average global temperature, rise in sea level, changes in precipitation patterns, and extreme events (Patrick, 2019: 17; Zubaidi et al., 2020: 2).

3.1 The impact of climate change on South Africa

Millions of people have already experienced the impact of climate change on South Africa (Ziervogel et al., 2014: 606; Mander et al., 2017: 262). Kusangaya, Warburton, Van Garderen and Jewitt (2014: 47-48) argued that these impacts are expected to affect all spheres of life within the country and region as a whole. Zubaidi et al. (2020: 2) assert that climate changes in Southern Africa are already causing a shift in rainfall patterns, droughts, increase in health hazards, declining biodiversity, and wildlife extinction, as well as a general decline in ecosystem services. In discussing the climate change trends in South Africa, Jury’s (2013: 2) study observed a declining rainfall trend in Eastern South Africa, a wet Northern South Africa, and a dry Southern South Africa pattern. Kusangaya et al. (2014: 47) argued that climate change in South Africa will affect energy use and agricultural productivity, flood control, wildlife

management as well as industrial and domestic water supply. Action Aid (2016: 15) observed that 2015 was the driest year on record for South Africa. It argued that the country is already experiencing the worst drought since 1982, which has affected roughly 173 of the 1,628 water supply schemes serving 2.7 million households in South Africa. Using the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters’ (CRED) data, Pharoach et al (2016), cited in Patrick (2019: 31) argued that, within the past 20 years, South Africa has experienced roughly 65 natural and industrial disasters, with floods, storms, and droughts being the most common. The study asserted that the country experienced 23 floods, leading to 473 deaths and 483,965 people affected, as well as 19 storm events, leading to 154 deaths and 140,945 people affected. Although the study recorded only two drought events, it asserted that over 15.3 million people were affected. In terms of flood events, Gosling (2015: 1) observed an increase in the number of flood events in South Africa from 200 flood events between 1971 and 1980 to approximately 1,900 flood events between 2001 and 2010. This indicates that the impact of climate change-induced disasters will have an enormous impact on the country, as it will add yet another dimension to the existing challenges facing the country.

Nyam, Kotir, Jordaan, Ogundeji and Turton (2020: 62) argue that the vulnerability of South Africa is largely due to its low adaptive capacity, low technological uptake, and widespread poverty, especially in the rural areas. This is also combined with a high dependence on climate-sensitive livelihoods. Hence, the impact of climate change especially on water will have both a direct and indirect effect on the socio-economic and biophysical environments in South Africa. Mastrorillo, Licker, Bohra-Mishra, Fagiolo, Estes and Oppenheimer (2016: 156) observed that poverty and racial inequalities, which are partially the legacies of apartheid, thus make a specific subgroup within

the population more vulnerable to the impact of climate change. Dlamini and Kaya (2016: 139) argue that the environmental insecurity facing South Africa as a whole is largely due to environmental mismanagement or inequality or both. Ziervogel et al. (2014: 606) advance that the impact of climate change will pose an acute challenge in South Africa in view of the level of poverty and inequality evident within the society. Ziervogel et al. (2014: 606-607) argue that the areas most sensitive to the impact of climate change in South Africa will be those characterized by subsistence food production and economic poverty, especially in the rural areas. This assertion motivates Kusangaya et al.’s (2014: 47), Mabhaudhi et al.’s (2019: 2,6), and Millington and Scheba’s (2020: 6) arguments that mostly the poor will feel the hardship, due to the impact of climate change in South Africa.

Turpie and Visser (2013: 67) argue that the rural areas account for approximately 40% of South Africa’s population. These areas are directly and indirectly dependent on natural resources (land and water) for their livelihood. It can, therefore, be expected that the impact of climate change on water and, by extension, agricultural output will have a direct effect on South Africa’s rural communities in terms of reduced income and employment. This will have a knock-on effect for the rural community as a whole and, by extension, put a strain on the rural local government. The study argues that climate change affects the net revenue of the already vulnerable and has the potential to destabilize the whole region. Hence, climate change is expected to exacerbate rural poverty in South Africa. Hitayezu, Zegeye and Ortmann (2014: 555) adopt a systemic review method in assessing the extent of vulnerability to climate change in the Midlands region of KwaZulu-Natal. The study observes that vulnerability is compounded by high population density and over-dependence on rain-fed agriculture, among others. In line with this assertion, the DWA (2013: 121) contends that roughly

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8.5 million people in South Africa are directly or indirectly dependent on agriculture for their livelihood and employment. Hitayezu et al. (2014: 567-571) argue that the adaptive capacity of the populace is negatively affected by inadequate access to infrastructure, low literacy rate, high HIV prevalence rate, and low-income prospects. While Mastrorillo (2016: 161), citing World Bank (2014: 2), asserts that 58.3% of South Africa’s population are below the national poverty line, Stats SA (2014: 34), however, asserts that KwaZulu-Natal accounts for over 26% of poverty in South Africa, with over 56.3% of the population in the province living in poverty. Poverty in this sense is contextualized in terms of the United Nations’ definition of absolute poverty to imply a situation of deprivation of basic human needs, due not only to limited income, but also to the capacity for access (Hagenaars, 2017: 149). Hence, the impact of climate change on the rural poor will be adverse.

3.2 The climate change and water security nexus

It is pertinent to note that, while climate change and water are intricately interwoven, unprecedented social and environmental impacts due to climate change are mostly inevitable (Babel et al. 2020: 1-2). These effects pose an enormous challenge to the sustainability of water security, as Africa is projected to experience an even greater impact (Zadawa & Omran, 2018: 129-130). According to the United States Geological Survey (nd), freshwater accounts for less than 3% of global water. Of this amount, 2.5% is frozen in glaciers, while the percentage amount readily available to meet the world’s water demands is approximately 0.6%. With climate change in the picture, the situation of water security becomes a global challenge capable of leading to water scarcity in different regions of the world. In view of this, Green, Vörösmarty, Harrison, Farrell, Sáenz and Fekete (2015) argue that freshwater provision for roughly 82% of the global population is exposed to

varying degrees of threat. Honkonen (2017: 3) argues that the impact of the water crisis poses the largest global risk in view of its potential impact. Green et al. (2015) argue that roughly 80% of the world’s population face a moderate to high level of threat relating to freshwater. Based on the above, water scarcity is conceptualized as the situation where the volume of water withdrawn from lakes, rivers, or groundwater becomes inadequate to meet human or ecosystem requirements, thus resulting in increased competition between users and demand.

Cook and Bakker (2012: 97-98) argued that there are three dimensions of water security in relation to different disciplines and viewpoints. These dimensions revolve around water-related hazards and vulnerability; human needs in terms of access, food security and human development-related concerns, and water sustainability. In terms of water-related hazards and vulnerability, water security involves the protection of vulnerable water systems, sustainable development of water resources, protection against water-related hazards, and safeguarding access to water. In line with the human needs dimension, on the other hand, water security is regarded as a condition in which water is available in sufficient quantity and quality as well as at an affordable price, in order to protect the safety, welfare, health, and productive capacity of households and communities in both the short and the long term. The third dimension of water security revolves around water sustainability. In modifying this conceptualization of water security, the United Nations’ (UN-Water, 2013) analytical brief on water security added “sustainability” to the discourse on access to water. It also broadened the definition by adding sustainable livelihood and socio-economic development, preservation of the ecosystem, as well as the issue of peace and political stability. Hence, UN-Water (2003: 1) defined water security as the

“capacity of a population to safeguard sustainable access to

adequate quantity of acceptable quality of water for sustaining livelihoods, human being and socio-economic development, for ensuring protection against water borne pollution and water related disasters, and for preserving the ecosystems in a climate of peace and political stability.”

UN-Water (2013: 1) and Xia, Duan, Luo, Xie, Liu and Mo (2017: 64) argued that the continuous changes in spatiotemporal patterns and precipitation variability affect the capacity for restoring natural water resources. Hence, a decrease in freshwater as greenhouse gases (GHG) emission increases, leading to climate change. The UN-Water (2013: 2) study projected a 40% decline in global freshwater supply by 2030 and a 55% increase in water demand by 2050. Thus, one in every 10 people globally will experience lack of access to water. Cisneros (2015: 14-15) projected an increase in global water demand of 50% and 18% in developing and developed countries, respectively. The study also argued that over 60% of people who have access to water do not receive water supply in a proper and reliable way. Adding to this line of argument, Schewe, Heinke, Gerten, Haddeland, Arnell, Clark et al. (2014: 3245) asserted that

“a 20C increase in global temperature above present level, which approximately will be 2.70C more than the pre-industrial level, will lead to drastic water shortage for 15% of global population. This will also increase by approximately 40% the number of individuals experiencing absolute water shortage at less than 500m3 per year.”

Ziervogel et al.’s (2010: 95-97) study on Cape Town water supply and climate-change adaptation argued that developing countries’ commitment and adaptation capacity of government in the management of water supply is, in most cases, lacking. Thus, climate change will exacerbate water stress in areas that are already pressurised by water scarcity or near water stress. In support of this claim, the UNFCCC (2011: 4, 5), Zadawa and Omran (2018: 130), and Patrick


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(2020: 2) projected that Africa will face increased water stress and conflict, as average temperatures across the continent continue to rise and rainfall declines. By 2020, 75 to 200 million people in Africa will face severe water shortages. In line with this position, over 35% of the population in Africa already have no access to safe drinking water at varying degrees (Martínez-Santos, 2017: 522; Edokpayi et al., 2020: 190). Action Aid (2016: 10) asserted that over 50% of the 663 million people who continue to use unsafe drinking water globally reside in Africa. Similarly, while over 600 million people have had no access to water since 2010, roughly 240 million (approximately 40% of the total) are in Africa (Cisneros, 2015: 13). In light of this, the effect of water security will be determined by the geographical location and characteristics of an area; the condition of water availability and use; the resilience of the ecosystem to climate variability; demographic changes; prevailing management and allocation system, as well as the existing institution and governance structure.

3.3 Climate change and water resources in South Africa

Papadouris and Thopil (2018: 1768) and Nyam et al. (2020: 62) argue that South Africa’s vulnerability to the impact of climate change on water is largely due to its general aridity. The changes in water supply vis-à-vis the impact of climate change will thus have adverse implications for several sectors of the economy. Hence, Hannah, Roehrdanz, Ikegami, Shepard, Shaw, Tabor et al. (2013: 6907) argue that the potential damage of climate change on freshwater supply will be severe and felt mostly in areas already experiencing water scarcity. It is, therefore, pertinent to note that the South African water sector faces the challenge of limited water resources, due to the water-stressed nature of the country and the need to ensure an equitable distribution of this scarce water resource. In view of this, Hedden and Cilliers (2014: 2), Rodina (2019: 11-12) and

Nyam et al. (2020: 62) argue that the unpredictability of water supply, coupled with high demand and poor use of existing resources, makes the country water constrained. Zhu and Ringler’s (2010) study on the impact of climate change on water resources in the Limpopo River Basin argues that climate change will impact severely on the hydrological resources in South Africa and add pressure on future adaptation. Hence, the depletion in water resources will lead to an increase in the cost of water and water rationing, among others. Ziervogel et al. (2010: 105) argue that the country is facing the dilemma of creating an equilibrium between social, economic, and environmental priorities, as it addresses the impact of climate change especially on water supply and demand. Lucas (2015: 20) argues that, with roughly 98% of South Africa’s water already being used, over half of the country’s water supply comes from 14% of the country’s rivers located mainly along the Eastern coastal region.

As at 2015, water storage in South Africa was at 64.3% of the normal supply compared to 74.6% storage level in 2014. It is projected that the country is likely to exceed its economically useable land water resources by 2050. This situation was observed by the DWA (2013: 37) report which argues that South Africa is at the brim of full utilisation of its available surface water. Lucas (2015: 20) projects a 1.7% shortage in water supply by 2025, with a higher decline in water security in relatively dry catchment areas. Von-Bormann (2014: 24) observes a continuous decline in the quality of available freshwater, with approximately 40% of South Africa’s freshwater system in critical condition and 80% threatened. The study projects a 17% gap in water supply and demand by 2030, with Johannesburg, Pretoria, Cape Town and Durban experiencing the greatest challenge for water management. DWA (2013: 20) asserts that domestic water consumption over the past decade in South Africa increased from 22% to approximately 27%. Hence, the

demand for water over the next decade is projected to increase by 1.2%. In view of this contention, Hedden and Cilliers (2014: 2) assert that South Africa’s average per person/per day water consumption level of 235 litres is above the global average of 173 litres per person/per day. Hence, using the international future global forecasting system model that produces atmospheric simulations in providing numerical predictions based on a wide range of atmospheric and land-soil variables (Powers Klemp, Skamarock, Davis, Dudhia, Gill et al., 2017: 1720), the study asserts that the gap between water demand and supply is steadily increasing. This was simulated using associated forecast to 2030 and 2035 (the time frames for the SA National Development Plan and the National Water Strategy). It, therefore, argues that measures undertaken by the DWA in bridging the demand and supply gap needs to be more aggressive to stand a chance of succeeding. In view of this assertion, Zhuwakinyu (2012: 2) posits that this gap in water supply and demand will equate a water shortfall of approximately 2.7 billion cubic metres. More recent studies by, among others, Rodina (2019: 11-15) of Cape Town, Zubaidi et al. (2020: 3-13) of Gauteng province, and Nyam et al. (2020: 62), all support thecontention that the water supply and demand gap is no longer a future challenge, but a present issue in South Africa.

In view of this, Oxfam (2010:2) argue that water scarcity in South Africa is aggravated by maladministration of irrigation schemes as well as the improper maintenance of the irrigation canals and extension services. Von-Bormann and Gulati (2014: 21-25) argue that the declining quality and quantity of water resources in the country pose a serious challenge for South Africa. Oxfam (2010: 21) argued that water-resource management in South Africa is a time bomb waiting to explode. This is motivated by the continuous decline in access to water by millions of South Africans, due to the decrease in water availability

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and poor resource management or privatization of water management.

The World Bank (2014: 4) asserts that, due to the challenges of water in the country, over 3 million people in South Africa have no access to water. Government’s basic water services are mainly in the urban areas, while the rural areas are mostly dependant on climate-sensitive natural resources such as groundwater, springs and rivers, which are vulnerable to droughts and flooding. Ntsaluba (2014: 1) asserts that roughly 14% of the country’s population have no access to clean water. In their study on governance’s adaptation to climate change in the water sector, Huntjens Lebel, Pahl-Wostl, Camkin, Schulze and Kranz (2012: 75-80) argue that the institutions in the Southern African region lack the ability to manage the challenges related to water security such as, among others, drought, floods, rise in sea level, water-supply shortages, increase in water pollution, and water-related diseases. Ziervogel et al. (2010: 95-97) explore the institutional context of actors’ response to water-supply management in Cape Town and the extent to which climate change is considered. The study found that the capacity of government to respond to water supply is often inadequate and that there is a significant gap between policy and practice in developing countries. The study further argues that South Africa’s water-management policy and planning are characterised by complex sociocultural, economic, and political challenges that need to be addressed. Exemplifying this assertion, the study observes that the informal settlements in Cape Town, with poor access to water, live alongside wealthy neighbourhoods with cheap and reliable access to water supply. In addition, the adaptation strategies in cities such as Durban are often disrupted, due to resource shortages and the need to channel resources to other priority areas.

Knopges (2016: 45) asserts that the decrease in water availability in

South Africa, either due to natural causes or as a result of infrastructural mismanagement, poses grave consequences for industries, agriculture, and the economy as a whole. In this vein, Gain and Gupponi (2012: 126) argue that the impact of climate change on water will create not only a deficiency in water availability and demand, but also higher order effects for other sectors. Hence, the impact of climate change on water security in South Africa has a direct effect on the agricultural output of rural communities, thereby increasing the poverty and vulnerability of the rural poor. Hughes and Mather (2014: 31) support this claim and argue that several poor people are heavily dependent on ecosystem services that are specifically vulnerable to the impact of climate change. Von-Bormann (2014: 15-17) argues that approximately 8.5 million people in South Africa rely directly or indirectly on agriculture for employment and income. Action Aid (2016: 22) asserts that a decrease in water quality and usability could result in the loss of over 200,000 jobs across South Africa and a drop in disposable income by 5.7% per person. Hence, although the South African economy is dominated by the tertiary sector, agriculture is still relevant for its development and stability. This supports Nel, Maitre, Roux, Colvin, Smith, Smith-Adao et al.’s (2017: 252-254) argument that development is constrained in South Africa as a result of the difficulty in ensuring the availability of water. This is an effect of the knock-on effects of water shortage on other water-reliant sectors.

Ntsaluba (2014: 1) and SAHRC (2014: 15) observe that the hardest hit water-stressed provinces are also the country’s most important food-production areas. Kings (2015: 1) asserts that over 400,000 head of cattle have died and that roughly 150,000 people receive disaster aid in the form of water and food. The SAHRC report (2014: 19) argues that 99 municipalities (roughly 38% of the total), which are predominantly in rural communities in KwaZulu-Natal,

North West, and Eastern Cape, are experiencing a water crisis. An average of 22.2% (Eastern Cape), 14.1% (KwaZulu-Natal), 14% (Limpopo), 12.6% (Mpumalanga) of the population have no access to piped water. As of 2011, less than 80% of the population in KwaZulu-Natal had access to water. Ntsaluba (2014: 1) argues that systemic failure in governance and implementation, especially in terms of project implementation, is a contributory factor to this plight. This situation has the potential to degenerate into a crisis (SAHRC, 2014). Addressing the water issue is, therefore, central to the adaptation to climate change.

3.4 Climate change water resources and coping/planning strategies

In the discourse on the impact of climate change on human security, coping strategies are largely conditioned by the degree of vulnerability of individuals and/or groups to climate change-induced impact on human and environmental resources. This corresponds with the idea of response and survival from a real or perceived form of threats to survival. This study conceptualizes coping strategies as the short-term immediate cognitive and behavioural responses by individuals, households and/or communities to declining natural resources. Dari, Aboagye and Koomson (2013: 1) conceptualized coping strategies as an erosive or non-erosive response of individuals and/or groups to a perceived or actual stressful event. Hence, coping strategies are curative and reformative actions by individuals and/or groups whose survival is compromised or threatened. For Vincent, Cull, Chanika, Hamazakaza, Joubert and Macome (2013: 194), coping connotes short-term strategies conceived by individuals and/or groups to maintain survival.

The higher the degree of vulnerability, the lower the capacity to cope and the higher the tendency to adopt a mechanism for coping. Dari et al. (2013: 5-11) assert that vulnerability and capacity to cope are linked


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to structural, infrastructural and superstructural elements of the community. While the structural factors imply the socio-economic conditions as well as the extent and availability of service delivery in the community, the infrastructural element refers to the demographic, biological, and environmental characteristics of the community. The superstructure, on the other hand, speaks to the literacy, culture, values, and belief system of the community. In view of this, coping strategies are relative and conditioned by the combination of structural, infrastructural and superstructural elements of society, in addition to previous historical experiences. Hence, coping strategies are culturally specific. The choice of one coping strategy over another depends on the magnitude of the event as well as the characteristics of the individuals and/or households. This invariably suggests that the peculiarities of society in terms of, among others, education, wealth, and ethnic configuration form potentially relevant cleavage lines for the coping mechanism adopted. In line with this, Zheng and Byg (2014: 226) assert that vulnerability and coping strategies are largely characterised by varied socio-economic features of individuals and/or households. Hence, hydro-climatic variability and socio-economic alterations interact and reinforce society’s coping strategy. These coping mechanisms could be adaptive, behavioural, defence, self-harm and/or aggressive in nature. They include, among many others, migration, sales of household assets, income diversification, collection of loans, violence, theft, child labour, remodelling of daily routine and practices, rationing and resources management, cooperation, and so on.

Mavhura, Manyena, Collins and Manatsa (2013: 38-45) explore variation in household coping ability and survival strategies adopted in terms of flooding situations in Muzarabani, Zimbabwe. The study argues that the degree of climate change-induced water insecurity on households is a function of not

only the magnitude of the flood and/or drought, but also the function of variables such as income, education, and occupation, among others. Using the theory of planned behaviour, the various coping mechanisms will be determined by the relativity of the households’ structural, infrastructural and superstructural elements. From these assertions, Maystadt, Calderone and You (2014: 651-652) argue that the depletion in natural resources, particularly water resources, is the main driver for competition and conflict in North and South Sudan. Mukuhlani and Nyamupingidza’s (2014: 145-157) study of coping strategies during water-scarcity situations in Bulawayo itemised positive and negative coping strategies adopted by government, communities, and households. These include ‘water shedding’ to stabilize the shrinking dam-water levels, water trucking, walking long distances to fetch water, buying water from other communities and water vendors, buying water containers to store water, as well as conflict, vandalism and abuse, among others. Their study asserted that conflict as a negative coping strategy occurs because of the inconsistency of water supply, especially during the peak of water shortage and rationing. Patrick (2020: 8) also argued that conflict as a coping mechanism occurs in situations where the opportunity cost for aggression outweighs the adoption of other response mechanisms. In his study of rural South Africa, Patrick (2020) posits that residents are more likely to be involved in violence as a means of communicating their grievances when resources are limited or non-existent. In the same vein, Adeniji-Oloukoi, Urmilla and Vadi (2013: 29-35) explored coping strategies among households with regard to climate-induced water shortages in Nigeria. They observed that, while behavioural coping options were adopted in traditional households, technical coping options were embraced in urban neighbourhoods. However, most of the households adopted multiple coping mechanisms for water shortages. The study

findings posited that the socio-economic characteristics of households exerted an influence on the coping strategy options adapted.

Similarly, while discussing climate change and water stress peculiarities in South Africa in view of the coping mechanism adopted, Gandure, Walker and Botha’s (2013: 39-50) study in Gladstone, Free State province, argued that inherent historical land access imbalances as well as the policies introduced by the government on free access to water and social grants have over time discouraged the need for adaptation, thus creating household dependency. Hence, the study argued that socio-economic peculiarities as well as political and historical factors underpin household coping strategies. Supporting this claim, Saul and Bond (2014: 64) argued that the country’s access to and use of water is shaped by conditions rooted in the history of colonialism, segregation and apartheid as well as the political struggles it bred. Wilk, Andersson and Warburton (2013: 85-86) concluded that response to climate-change stress among households is a function of the households’ construction of their reality as well as their ability to act and adapt in terms of their socio-economic characteristics. These assertions showed in many respects that the peculiarities of a sociopolitical and cultural setting influence, to a large extent, the coping strategies adopted by individuals and societies in response to the impact of climate change on water security.

Hellberg (2017: 74,76) posits that the country’s access to and use of water are still shaped by conditions rooted in its historical legacies. The underlining peculiarities of South Africa vis-à-vis its historicity thus influence the nature of the response to water insecurity among households and communities. These coping mechanisms adopted across quarters in rural communities are diverse. In view of this, Adewumi, Ilemobade and Van Zyl (2010: 222, 224) posited that the trend for water reuse for ‘non-drinking’ necessities is

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becoming an increasing phenomenon across all quarters in South Africa, due to the impact of climate change on the country’s already stressed water resources. The use of containers for irrigation purposes instead of pipes in a bid to avoid water wastage as well as the use of water-storage facilities in coping with the below average precipitation level for South Africa are identified as a strategy for water conservation in rural South Africa (UN-Water, 2013: 7; Knopges, 2016: 48). In rare instances where there is rainfall, the use of rainwater harvesting is also indicated as another viable option available for most of the households in rural communities in securing water for household use. Kahinda et al. (2010: 743-744) and Biazin, Sterk, Temesgen, Abdulkedir and Stroosnijder (2012: 139-142) corroborate this strategy as a means for household water security. They argue that rainwater harvesting serves as a pivotal channel for securing water for rural households in South Africa. While Biazin et al. (2012: 139) argued that the tactic cut across sub-Saharan Africa, Kahinda et al. (2010: 743) argued that it is an important source of water for rural communities in South Africa.

In other instances where residents are left with hardly any or no option, the buying and selling of water is considered another coping mechanism. In this scenario, residents are left with hardly any or no alternative but to buy water from water vendors, who, in most cases, sell water at ridiculous prices, due to the scarcity of water caused by the impact of climate change (Magubane, 2015: 1). The rise in protest action is also observed as a reoccurring response to water insecurity in South Africa. Studies by Chigwata, O’Donovan and Powell (2017: 1), Chambers (2018: 1), and Patrick (2020: 10-11) corroborate the assertion of increased protest actions as a communication mechanism used by the citizens to express their displeasure to the authority. This increases conflict situations in the face of dissatisfaction with resource-management processes

in society. This is supported by Gleick’s (2014: 338) studies which argue that the ability of governance institutions to manage water-related grievances determines the tendency for conflict in society.

In reviewing government’s response to the impact of climate change on water, Saul and Bond (2014: 162) as well as Hellberg (2017: 75), among others, observed the lopsided responsibility of the state in addressing issues of access to water and service delivery in South Africa, especially in rural areas. Ziervogel et al. (2014: 612) observed a major lacuna between policy and practice in South Africa. This is largely due to systemic failure in governance and implementation capacity as a result of the weak institutional capability on the part of the government. The vulnerability of households to water extremes leading to water scarcity is, therefore, rooted in the institutional incapacity of the state to provide such resources. This situation for South Africa is embedded in poor management and planning for sustainable development. In several instances where state institutions did intervene or carry out their assigned responsibility, many believe that it is always reactionary (Patrick, 2020: 14). Patrick (2020: 12) further argued that the primacy of providing a minimum daily water requirement, especially for rural communities, is often neglected until a crisis erupts. Similarly, Theisen, Gleditsch and Buhaug (2011: 614-615) as well as Patrick (2019: 30, 67) argued that conflict over water, reflected as a negative response to water scarcity situations, is a result of negligence and abuse felt by a group of people over time.

4. CONCLUDING REMARKS The aim of this article was to review the impact of climate change and water security in South Africa, with a focus on the response mechanisms for rural communities in view of the dynamic and historical configuration of the South African state. The rationale was to provoke responses as well as set a background for the

discourse of coping mechanisms in the face of climate change and water security in South Africa. The studies reviewed summarily showed that climate-change realities and its impact in South Africa cannot be over-emphasised. The vulnerability of South Africa to climate change-induced water insecurity is informed by its general aridity, increasing population, and economic growth as well as its infrastructural and management inadequacies. South Africa, therefore, faces a dilemma of creating an equilibrium between social, economic, and environmental priorities in addressing climate change-induced water security challenges. The vulnerability of rural communities in South Africa to these climate-change realities, especially water, is intensified by its weak coping capacity in terms of poverty, lack of infrastructure as well as over-dependence on climate-sensitive resources. This has a negative effect on the livelihood of residents, especially in rural communities in South Africa. This vulnerability is also intensified by inadequacies in government’s response to water insecurities, especially in rural areas, as well as the non-availability of basic water services mostly in these areas. The situation is further complicated by government post-resilience strategies rather than pre-emptive pre-resilience strategies, making government’s response reactionary rather than proactive. Hence, there is a need for more proactive measures by individuals, communities, and the government in managing climate change-induced water vulnerabilities in these areas.

This review concludes that, although policy research that links the impacts of climate change to water security in rural communities exists, a stronger focus on issues of quality and quantity in the implementation of water-security matters is critical. The review noted the dearth of studies focusing on adaptations, coping, and planning alternatives available for rural communities in South Africa to the impact of climate change-induced water insecurity. There are no spatial planning principles


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to respond to water scarcity issues in South Africa, in general, and in rural communities, in particular. The historical peculiarities of South Africa, in terms of its socio-economic and spatial configuration, place the rural communities in the rainbow nation in a somewhat disadvantageous position in terms of the supply of water. The impact of climate change on climate-sensitive supplies available in these rural areas as well as the consequent coping and planning alternatives for rural communities require more robust policy and spatial research. Thus, as rural communities deal with the impacts of climate change, implementation cycles of water-security measures need to be ensured along with further integration of spatial planning issues in rural areas. There is also a need for a deeper engagement with spatial planning research and issues, in order to further mitigate and address the impacts of climate change on water security in rural areas, especially within the context of South Africa.

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How to cite: Geraghty, P.J. 2020. Reflections on how the implementation of sustainable development goals across the UK and Ireland can influence the mainstreaming of these goals in English planning practice. Town and Regional Planning, no.77, pp. 31-41.

Dr Peter (P.J.) Geraghty, Executive Director, Hertsmere Borough Council, Civic Offices, Borehamwood, Elstree Way, Borehamwood, Hertfordshire, WD6 1WA, UK. Phone: 020 8207 7474 (ext 2200), email: <[email protected]>

Reflections on how the implementation of sustainable development goals across the UK and Ireland can influence the mainstreaming of these goals in English planning practice

P.J. Geraghty





Abstract The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are an ambitious and voluntary undertaking by governments to implement sustainable development. Many countries have been pursuing a process of localisation, in which local and regional priorities are rooted in the implementation of the SDGs. The UK’s implementation of SDGs has been hindered by its governance arrangements and the perspective that they are primarily for developing countries. A review of official UK parliamentary reports from 2016 to 2020 and the government’s Voluntary National Review (H.M. Government, 2019) have highlighted a knowledge gap and inconsistency in the implementation of the SDGs. Years of perma-reform in planning, resulting in policy turbulence, have further retarded their adoption in England. Devolution has led to a divergence in planning practice across the UK. The approach outside of England has been much more proactive. This article seeks to bridge this knowledge gap by reflecting on practice in the UK and Ireland and how this might influence the mainstreaming of the SDGs in future planning practice in England.Keywords: Development, devolution, goals, localisation, planning, reflection, sustainable, Sustainable Development Goals, UK, Ireland

REFLEKSIES OOR HOE DIE IMPLEMENTERING VAN VOLHOUBARE ONTWIKKELINGSDOELWITTE IN DIE VERENIGDE KONINKRYK EN IERLAND DIE HOOFSTROOM VAN HIERDIE DOELWITTE IN DIE ENGELSE BEPLANNINGSPRAKTYK KAN BEÏNVLOEDDie Doelwitte vir Volhoubare Ontwikkeling (SDG’s) is ’n ambisieuse en vrywillige onderneming deur regerings om volhoubare ontwikkeling te implementeer. Baie lande het ’n proses van lokalisering gevolg, waarin plaaslike en streeksprioriteite gewortel is in die implementering van die SDG’s. Die implementering van SDG’s in die Verenigde Koninkryk (VK) word belemmer deur sy bestuursreëlings en die perspektief dat dit hoofsaaklik vir ontwikkelende lande is. ’n Oorsig van amptelike Britse parlementêre verslae van 2016 tot 2020 en die Regering se Voluntary National Review (H.M. Government, 2019) het ’n kennisgaping en ’n teenstrydigheid in die implementering van die SDG’s beklemtoon. Jare van permanente hervorming in beplanning wat beleidsonstuimigheid tot gevolg gehad het, het die aanvaarding daarvan in Engeland verder vertraag. Devolusie het gelei tot ’n verskil in die

beplanningspraktyk in die VK. Die benadering buite Engeland was baie meer proaktief. Hierdie artikel poog om hierdie kennisgaping te oorbrug deur na te dink oor praktyk in die VK en Ierland en hoe dit die hoofstroom van die SDG’s in toekomstige beplanningspraktyke in Engeland kan beïnvloed.Sleutelwoorde: Afwenteling, beplan-ning, doelwitte, lokalisering, ontwikkeling, reflek sie, volhoubaar, volhou bare ont wik-ke lings doelwitte, VK, Ierland

MAIKUTLO A HORE NA HO KENNGOA TS’EBETSONG HOA MERERO EA NTS’ETSOPELE EA NAKO E TELELE MOSE HO UK LE IRELAND E KA AMA TŠEBETSO EA THERO EA LITOROPO EA SENYESEMANE JOANGMerero ea Nts’etsopele ea Nako e Telele (SDGs) ke boikemisetso le boithatelo bo etsoang ke mebuso ho kenya tšebetsong nts’etsopele e tšoarellang. Linaha tse ngata li ntse li latela ho kenya li SDG ts’ebetsong ea lehae, moo lintho tsa mantlha tsa lehae le tsa tikoloho li thehiloeng ts’ebetsong ea li-SDG. Ts’ebetso ea UK ea li-SDG e sitisitsoe ke mokhoa oa eona oa puso le maikutlo a hore li SDG li molemong oa linaha tse futsanehileng. Tlhahlobo ea litlaleho tsa semmuso tsa paramente ea UK ho tloha 2016 ho isa 2020 le Voluntary National Review (HM Government, 2019) li bonts’itse khaello ea tsebo le ho se lumellane ts’ebetsong ea li-SDG. Lilemo tse ngata tsa phetoho-kholo meralong, e bakileng pherekano ea maano, li fokolisitse kamohelo ea li SDG naheng ea Engelane. Tlhahiso-pele e lebisitse ho fapakaneng mekhoeng ea ho rala UK. Mokhoa o kantle ho Engelane oa thero obonts’a maemo a holimo a ho nka likhato mapabi le li SDG. Sengoloa sena se batla ho koala lekhalo lena la tsebo ka ho nahanisisa tšebetso ea ho rala UK le Ireland le hore na sena se ka ama tšusumetso ea li-SDG joang mokhoeng oa ho rala bokamosong ba Engelane.

1. INTRODUCTIONThe implementation of the United Nation’s (UN) Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is fundamental to achieving resilient cities and communities. Clear, strong leadership at

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international, national and local levels is key to implementing the SDGs. Decisions should be made at the appropriate level.1

Biermann, Kanie and Kim (2017: 26) point out that past global governance efforts have relied largely on top-down regulation or market-based approaches, and that the SDGs promise a novel type of governance that makes use of non-legally binding, global goals set by the UN member states. The approach of governance through goals is marked by a number of key characteristics such as the inclusive goal-setting process, the non-binding nature of the goals, the reliance on weak institutional arrangements, and the broad latitude that states enjoy, none of which is specific to this type of governance. These characteristics together result in a new and distinct means of institutional global governance (Biermann et al., 2017: 26).

Since the adoption of the SDGs, many countries have been pursuing a process of localisation, in which local and regional priorities are rooted in the implementation of the SDGs, as will allow the co-creation of a new framework of governance that is meaningful and practical in the day-to-day lives of citizens. Localisation requires multi-level and multi-stakeholder coordination, financial support, and capacity-building for local and regional governments to effectively participate (GTL & RG, 2020: 9).

The current political environment in England is both turbulent and unreceptive to professional planning. This is typified by the relentless reforms that have occurred in the English planning system over the past ten years (2010-2020). These reforms have resulted in fundamental changes to planning practice (Jones, Hillier & Comfort, 2016). The mood music to this planning reform has been one of scepticism from senior political figures (Geraghty, 2017a: 168). The culmination of

1 Goal 16 identifies the importance of building effective, accountable and inclusive institutions at all levels.

this has been the publication of a White Paper on planning reform in August 2020 (MHCLG, 2020). In the forward to the White Paper, the Prime Minister maintains the sceptical view of planning:

“The whole thing [planning system] is beginning to crumble and the time has come to do what too many have for too long lacked the courage to do – tear it down and start again.”

In response to the political scepticism and reform agenda, the Royal Town Planning Institute (RTPI) has sought to demonstrate the value of planning (Adams, O’Sullivan, & Inch, 2016). The RTPI points out that understanding and evaluating the impact of planning in relation to higher level goals such as the UN SDGs, or other national government outcomes tied to these, is ambitious and still in the early stages:

“Our survey evidence suggests that while this is progressively being established in many places, there is still not necessarily a clear knowledge of what is being delivered through the planning system. If there can be more comprehensive data on the outcomes of a planning application for example, looking beyond simply number of units built, then evaluating the wider cumulative impact would represent a considerable leap in understanding performance.” (RTPI, 2020: 19-20).

This article considers the occurrence of localisation in the devolved nations of the United Kingdom (UK) and Ireland and reflects on how understanding divergent practice can assist in addressing the knowledge deficiency among planning professionals and policymakers. In particular, how learning from the devolved nations can support the mainstreaming of the SDGs in future planning practice in the UK.

2. THE METHODOLOGICAL APPROACH

The approach adopted involved a literature review of official UK parliamentary reports from when the SDGs came into force to the present (2016-2020), the government’s

Voluntary National Review (H.M. Government, 2019), and the National Planning Policy Framework. This review highlighted a knowledge gap and inconsistencies in implementing the SDGs. One way of bridging this knowledge gap is through reflective practice. As Willson pointed out, the idea of reflective practice is not new (Schön, 1983) but during turbulent and challenging times it can be a valuable approach. Willson (2020) mentions that reflection particularly helps planners navigate between idealism and realism. Reflecting on the manner in which the SDGs have been implemented in the devolved nations, Ireland and at local authority level provides indicators on how the SDGs could be mainstreamed in future planning practice in England. As a practitioner working in local government in England, it is critical to have commitment from central government to delivering the goals, and importantly, clear guidance as to how they are implemented and applied. This, coupled with a monitoring regime, is essential to ensure that they are achieved at all levels of governance, as envisaged by the UN. Many countries are applying a localisation approach, which requires multi-level and multi-stakeholder support. Without a clear implementation strategy, which the White Paper could have identified, it is difficult to perceive how the necessary resources and capacity are available to successfully achieve their implementation.

3. BACKGROUND TO SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALSThe UN (2015) adopted Transforming our world: The 2030 Agenda for sustainable development that included 17 SDGs and 169 associated targets. The SDGs came into force on 1 January 2016. Table 1 sets out the seventeen goals, all of which are relevant to creating sustainable places (Geraghty, 2017b: 519). Underpinning the SDGs and targets are a series of 244 indicators, or 232 if the nine indicators that repeat under two

P.J. Geraghty • Reflections on how the implementation of sustainable development goals across the UK and Ireland can influence ...

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or three different targets are taken into account.

The approach to governance embodied in the SDGs (Biermann et al., 2017: 26) requires a whole-of-government and a whole-of-society approach. It is necessary to achieve more accountable and effective governance and more inclusive societies, based on strengthening existing partnerships and building new ones (GTL & RG, 2020: 14). Participation is an essential component of sustainable urban development, promoted by the 2030 Agenda (UN-Habitat, 2020: 8). The role of different levels of government in the implementation of the SDGs depends on the political and institutional framework of each country. Each level of government should have the capacity to set its own priorities in line with its legal areas of responsibility, and to pursue them through local and regional plans and sectoral policies (GTL & RG, 2016: 25). This is increasingly being achieved through a process of localisation. Mainstreaming the SDGs into local plans and policies appears to be a prominent objective in the strategies adopted by an increasing number of countries (GTL & RG, 2020: 48). Many regions are moving from mere commitments to alignment actions through mainstreaming the SDGs (GTL & RG,

2020: 115). Localisation involves an institutionalized dialogue between local and national governments to implement local and national plans aligned with the SDGs. In England, this dialogue is not occurring because of the gap between local authorities and national government (see 4.1).

4. IMPLEMENTATION OF SDGS IN THE UNITED KINGDOM

Whilst planning is a devolved function, given the international nature of the 2030 Agenda, the UK government oversees the introduction of the SDGs. The government department responsible for overseeing the implementation of the SDGs is not the Ministry for Housing, Communities and Local Government (MHCLG) but the Department for International Development (DFID) (2017: 1), subsequently replaced by the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office. A review by the House of Commons (HoC) International Development Committee was unequivocal about the issue:

“Placing the responsibility for implementation of the SDGs – and by extension the Voluntary National Review – in the Department for International Development is simply wrong. The practicalities are that DFID is an internationally-focused department whose Ministers have recognised

that they have ‘relatively few, if any, domestic levers’. The message in this arrangement is that the SDG initiative is one for developing countries …” (HoC International Development Committee, 2019: 3).

This has created a weakness that pervaded the whole approach to delivering the SDGs in England. Government departments are required to embed the goals in their single departmental plans (SDPs) (House of Lords Library, 2018). The Cabinet Office has been given a role in coordinating domestic delivery of the goals through the SDP process.

4.1 Parliamentary scrutiny of the implementation of sustainable development goals

The 2030 Agenda specifies that the monitoring and review of the SDG process be “voluntary, state-led, undertaken by both developed and developing countries, and shall provide a platform for partnerships, including through the participation of major groups and other relevant stakeholders” (UN, 2015: 39).

As part of the UN’s review and monitoring process, member states are encouraged to conduct “regular and inclusive [national] reviews” called voluntary national reviews (VNRs). The UK Government published its VNR on 26 June 2019 (H.M. Government, 2019: 8-12).

There is a strong sense of disengagement in the “domestic” implementation of SDGs elsewhere in government, particularly MHCLG, which is responsible for planning and local government. For example, as recently as January 2019, the HoC Environmental Audit Committee (2019: 3) reported:

“In their present format, Single Departmental Plans (SDPs) are insufficient to deliver the SDGs in the UK. Government’s failure to ensure that all SDG targets are covered in the SDPs has left significant gaps in plans and accountability”.

The UK’s approach to implementing the SDGs has been the subject of scrutiny by several committees.

Table 1: Sustainable development goalsSDG Description

Goal 1 No poverty, in all its forms, everywhere.Goal 2 Zero hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition, and promote sustainable agriculture.Goal 3 Good health and well-being for all at all ages.

Goal 4 Quality education that is inclusive and equitable and to promote life-long learning opportunities for all.

Goal 5 Gender equality and empower all women and girls.Goal 6 Clean water and sanitation for all.Goal 7 Affordable and clean energy for all.Goal 8 Decent work and economic growth, full and productive employment for all.Goal 9 Promote inclusive and sustainable industry, foster innovation, and build resilient infrastructure.Goal 10 Reduced inequalities within and among countries.Goal 11 Sustainable cities and communities that are inclusive, safe and resilient.Goal 12 Responsible production and consumption.Goal 13 Urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts.Goal 14 Conserve and sustainably use the oceans, seas and marine resources.Goal 15 Protect, restore and promote sustainable use of terrestrial ecosystems.

Goal 16 Promote just, peaceful and inclusive societies; provide access to justice for all, and build effective, accountable and inclusive institutions at all levels.

Goal 17 Revitalise the global partnership between governments, the private sector, and civil society to implement the sustainable development agenda.

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This has highlighted considerable inconsistencies. Concern has been expressed about the lack of awareness of the existence and relevance of SDGs. In 2016, the HoC International Development Committee (2016: 34) reported:

“The Government’s response to domestic implementation of the SDGs has so far been insufficient for a country which led on their development as being universal and applicable to all … Engagement of government departments will be central to the success of domestic implementation, which itself has an impact on making progress on the goals globally.”

The Committee went so far as to say that:

“We are deeply concerned at the lack of a strategic and comprehensive approach to implementation of the Goals. Without this, it is likely that areas of deep incoherence across government policy could develop and progress made by certain departments could be easily undermined by the policies and actions of others. It also reflects a worrying absence of commitment to ensure proper implementation of the SDGs across government.” (HoC International Development Committee, 2016: 59).

The Committee (2016: 54) recommended that “all HoC departmental select committees engage with the SDGs, particularly those goals and targets most relevant to their departments.”

The HoC Environmental Audit Committee is responsible for considering the extent to which the policies and programmes of government departments contribute to sustainable development. In April 2017, it published a report that scrutinised how the Government was implementing the SDGs and the framework for national monitoring and reporting (HoC Environmental Audit Committee, 2017).

The Committee found that there was an “accountability gap” across government, with no central coordination or “voice at the top of government speaking for the long-term aspirations embodied

in the goals” (HoC Environmental Audit Committee, 2017: 26). It recommended that the Government should appoint a cabinet-level minister with strategic responsibility for implementing sustainable development, including the SDGs (Table 1), across government.

According to the Audit Committee, the Government seemed “more concerned with promoting the goals abroad” and had “undertaken no substantive work to promote the goals domestically or encourage businesses, the public sector and civil society to engage with the goals” (HoC Environmental Audit Committee, 2017: 4). It stated that raising awareness and encouraging engagement would increase the number of people and organisations able to contribute towards meeting the SDGs. In this regard, it is interesting to note that it is left to the Local Government Association (LGA) to produce guidance for local authorities on SDGs (LGA & UKSSD, 2020).

The Audit Committee bemoaned the slow progress on developing measurement frameworks for the SDGs and that the Government has shown little interest in, or enthusiasm, for implementing the SDGs in the UK (HoC Environmental Audit Committee, 2017: 7).

The disjointed nature of implementing the SDGs across government is highlighted in the report on the UK’s progress with SDGs and preparation of the VNR by HoC International Development Committee. It concluded:

“For future VNRs, it is essential that an appropriate mechanism is created – at the heart of Government … to lead on communication and implementation of the SDGs. If such a mechanism had been in place, bringing together the VNR would have been much more straightforward. Instead, the process was incredibly fragmented, with chapters of the VNR drafted, … in isolation, by different departments. The process to bring all of the sections of the report together was then very complex” (HoC International

Development Committee, 2019: 23).

This is reflected in a 2018 report by UK Stakeholders for Sustainable Development (UKSSD). Out of 143 targets relating to the SDGs, the UK is performing well on only 24% of them. There are gaps in policy or inadequate performance for 57% of the targets, and 15% where there is little to no policy in place to address the target, or where performance is poor (UKSSD, 2018).

5. IMPLEMENTATION OF SDGS IN ENGLAND

The constituent parts of the UK (England, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland) have, until relatively recently, been governed centrally from London. Between 1998 and 1999, the Scottish Parliament, the National Assembly for Wales, the Northern Ireland Assembly and the London Assembly were established by law. The devolved nations have powers to legislate for planning and environmental matters, including the implementation of the SDGs.

5.1 The demise of English regional planning and a decade of perma-reform

In England, there has been a long-standing antipathy from the Conservative Party towards regional planning and governance. This is demonstrated in a Green Paper entitled “Open Source Planning” (2010), which espoused unequivocally that “[w]e believe that the introduction of a regional planning layer has been an expensive failure and have no qualms about dismantling it” (Conservative Party, 2010: 10). On entering into a coalition government in May 2010, they dissolved Regional Assemblies and abolished Regional Spatial Strategies in favour of neighbourhood planning enacted in the 2011 Localism Act. In the absence of a clear localisation agenda, these actions have had a detrimental effect on the implementation of the SDGs in England, as evidenced by the findings of many parliamentary committees (see section 4.1).


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Tewdwr-Jones (2012: 212) pointed out:

“The emerging function of governance across different parts of the UK appears to be reliant on both formal and informal structure of policy making. In the absence of strict codes and institutional, statutory and political parameters provided by central government for the establishment of the more ad hoc, informal partnership bodies, governance in different parts of the UK appears to be a diverse picture of fragmentation and responsibility.”

Since the dissolution of regional governance in the UK, there has been an increasing trend towards regional inequality. It has arrested decision-making at a regional or sub-regional level. The UK 2070 Commission, which undertook an inquiry into regional inequalities in the UK, highlighted these issues in its final report, which states that there is “a lack of institutions to take strategic decisions locally”. This, in turn, leads to:

“a growing inequality … New devolved, decentralised and inclusive administrative structures, powers and resources are required, which are sensitive to national and regional differences and local circumstances, and which will create the institutional capacity to bring about change” (UK 2070 Commission, 2020: 34).

The dissolution of regional governance has been accompanied by a decade of perma-reform in English planning (Geraghty, 2019b), leading to what Tewdwr-Jones (2012: 221) describes as “policy turbulence”. Such turbulence causes difficulty for spatial planning because of the rapidity of change and the extended time it takes for spatial strategies to be developed.

5.2 Deficiencies in the approach to the implementation of SDGs in England

This “policy turbulence”, as described by Tewdwr-Jones, is exemplified by the National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF). First published on 27 March 2012, the NPPF consolidated 1,300 pages of government policy. It is the backbone

of the English planning system (Geraghty 2019a: 354). It underwent a major revision in July 2018 (MCLG, 2018) and was further revised in February 2019 (MCLG, 2019).

Paragraph 7 of the NPPF states: “The purpose of the planning system is to contribute to the achievement of sustainable development.” The NPPF would have been the natural document in which to set out a framework for achieving SDGs. However, the updated NPPF makes no reference to the SDGs or how they might be achieved (Geraghty, 2019a: 361). Similarly, the DFID (2017) report on SDGS makes no reference to urban planning or the NPPF.

It would have been possible to map the NPPF against the SDGs and use it to show how compliance with them might be achieved. This is consistent with the approach recommended by the guidance

produced by the LGA (LGA & UKSSD, 2020: 13). In contrast, the Northern Ireland Assembly carried out such a mapping exercise for the SDGs (DAERA, 2018). Geraghty (2019a: 364) demonstrated how, even with a basic approach, the NPPF can be mapped against the SDGs. This mapping would be the first step to the formalization of SDG commitments, as discussed in Biermann et al. (2017: 27). It could then have provided the framework for local authorities to carry out VLRs and to inform development plans. Table 2 shows this mapping exercise (Geraghty, 2019a: 363).

Moreover, planning authorities produce Annual Monitoring Reports, which typically include themes concerning the quality of development, planning performance, user and neighbourhood experience, and infrastructure delivery (RTPI, 2020).

Table 2: Mapping the SDGs against the NPPF

Section of the NPPFRelevant

sustainable development goal

Relevant SDG target

2. Achieving sustainable development 13, 17 13.1, 13.2, 13.3, 17.17

3. Plan-making 10, 11, 12, 16, 1710.2, 10.3, 10.4, 11.1, 11.2, 11.3, 11.4, 11.6, 11.7, 11a, 11b, 12.2, 12.3, 12.4, 12.5, 12.6, 12.8, 12.b, 16.6, 16.7, 17.14, 17.15, 17.7.

4. Decision-making 10, 11, 12, 16, 17 10.3, 11.4, 11.7, 12.2, 12.4, 12.5, 12.8, 12.b, 16.3, 16.6, 16.7, 16.10, 17.14, 17.15, 17.17.

5. Delivering a sufficient supply of homes 10, 11 10.2, 10.3, 11.1, 11.3, 11.5, 11.b.

6. Building a strong, competitive economy 1, 8, 9, 10, 12 1.1, 1.2, 1.4, 1.5, 8.2, 8.3, 8.5, 8.6, 8.8, 8.9, 9.1,

9.4, 10.1, 10.2, 10.3, 10.4, 12.2, 12.7, 12.b.7. Ensuring the vitality of town centres 5, 8 5.4, 5.a, 8.1, 8.2, 8.3, 8.6, 8.7, 8.8, 8.9, 8.10.

8. Promoting healthy and safe communities 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 10

1.1, 1.2, 1.3, 1.4, 1.5, 2.1, 2.2, 3.1, 3.2, 3.3, 3.4, 3.5, 3.6, 3.7, 3.8, 3.9, 4.a, 5.1, 5.2, 5.4, 5.5, 5.a, 5.b, 6.1, 6.2, 6.3, 6.4, 6.5, 10.2, 10.3, 10.7.

9. Promoting sustainable transport 5, 9, 11 5.1, 5.2, 5.5, 5.b, 5.c, 9.1, 9.4, 11.2, 11.3, 11.7.

10. Supporting high quality communications 9 9.1, 9.4, 9.5.

11. Making effective use of land 11, 1511.1, 11.2, 11.3, 11.4, 11.5, 11.6, 11.7, 11.a, 11.b, 15.1, 15.2, 15.3, 15.4, 15.5, 15.6, 15.8, 15.9, 15.a, 15.b.

12. Achieving well-designed places 5, 11, 15 5.1, 5.2, 5.4, 5.5, 5.b, 11.1, 11.2, 11.3, 11.4, 11.5,

11.6, 11.7, 11.a, 11.b, 15.1, 15.5.13. Protecting Green Belt land 11, 15 11.7, 11.a, 15.5, 15.9.14. Meeting the challenge of climate change, flooding, and coastal change

6, 13, 14 6.1, 6.2, 6.3, 6.4, 6.5, 6.6, 6.b, 13.1, 13.2, 13.3, 13.a, 14.1, 14.2, 14.5, 14.a.

15. Conserving and enhancing the natural environment 11, 12, 13, 15

11.4, 11.6, 12.1, 12.2, 12.3, 12.4, 12.5, 12.6, 12.7, 12.8, 12.a, 12.b, 15.1, 15.2, 15.4, 15.5, 15.8, 15.9, 15.a, 15.b.

16. Conserving and enhancing the historic environment 11 11.3, 11.4, 11.b.

17. Facilitating the sustainable use of minerals 7, 12 7.1, 7.2, 7.3, 7.a, 12.1. 12.2, 12.6, 12.7, 12.8,

12.a, 12.c.

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The NPPF could have set out guidance as to how these reports could be used to demonstrate how authorities are achieving the SDGs. They could also be linked to VLRs (see Bristol City in section 5.3 below).

The Environmental Audit Committee of the House of Commons stated:

“the Government has not yet done enough to drive awareness and embed the SDGs across the UK – including within Government itself. We reiterate the recommendation made in our predecessor Committee’s 2017 report that the Government should do everything it can to support partners (government agencies, local government, civil society, business and the public) to contribute towards delivering the Goals. The Government should show leadership.” (HoC Environmental Audit Committee, 2019: 3-4).

This lack of awareness is reflected in the VNR, which hardly makes any reference to the NPPF. As will be noted later, the Republic of Ireland has identified a strategic priority under the SDG National Implementation Plan to mainstream “the SDGs across national policies, so that when relevant sectoral policies are developed or reviewed, Ireland’s commitments under the SDGs will be taken into account” (Government of Ireland, 2018: 9).

The absence of leadership in government in implementing the SDGs and the diffidence towards regional governance has led some cities and local authorities to become catalysts of change to bridge the gap. A point made by United Cities and Local Government (UC & LG):

“All of the SDGs have targets that are directly or indirectly related to the daily work of local and regional governments. Local governments should not be seen as mere implementers of the agenda. Local governments are policy makers, catalysts of change and the level of government best-placed to link the global goals with local communities” (UC & LG, 2015: 2).

5.3 Implementation of SDGs at a local level in England

In contrast to the dilatory approach at a national level in England, some English local authorities and cities are demonstrating local leadership in implementing SDGs. The currently small number of examples of practice in England probably arise from the low level of awareness and the failure of the NPPF to promote the goals. The LGA has stepped in to fill the gap by producing a guide for local authorities. To implement the SDGs, the LGA advises local authorities to identify which of their own existing goals, targets, plans and policies contribute to each of the SDGs, broadly supporting either the entire goal or one or more of the targets within it (LGA & UKSSD, 2020:13). One of the challenges for local authorities is finding a balance between a comprehensive set of indicators (which can include the locally adapted SDG indicators) and using their existing monitoring frameworks such as annual monitoring reports (Klopp & Petretta, 2017: 92-97). The introduction of national guidance through the NPPF or other guidance would assist in achieving this:

“Achievement of the SDGs depends heavily on the active involvement of regional and local authorities, in particular through specific approaches to translate the SDGs into their own context.” (EU, 2019: 12)

In the absence of national or regional guidance, cities are taking an increasing role in promoting the SDGs. The latest draft Greater London Authority’s (GLA) London Plan sets out the aspiration that “the concept of Good Growth – growth that is socially and economically inclusive and environmentally sustainable – underpins the London Plan and ensures that it is focused on sustainable development” (Mayor of London, 2019: paragraph 0.0.18); it does not however, identify the SDGs specifically. This is somewhat surprising but may, in some part, be due to their absence from the NPPF.

The City of London Corporation established the London Sustainable

Development Commission (LSDC) in 2002 to promote sustainable development in London and raise awareness of the SDGs. The LSDC provides independent advice on the sustainable nature of London-wide strategies, including those produced by the GLA. The LSDC comprises key representatives from London’s economic, social, environmental, and governance sectors. It aims to publish a report on London’s progress on the SDGs.

In Bristol City, the Bristol SDG Alliance has been established as a network of stakeholders who are interested in discussing and advocating the practical use of the SDGs and leading the way in the implementation of SDGs in the UK and internationally. The Alliance includes a range of Bristol City Council officials. This initiative was further supported by the creation of a new Cabinet-level SDG Ambassador role, to be undertaken by the Cabinet member for Education and Skills. The new Ambassador will raise awareness and the profile of Bristol’s SDGs work. S/he will also champion the SDGs in local development plans, and act as the political lead for the goals. This is the first role of its kind in the UK (Townsend & Macleod, 2018: 13-14). Bristol City Council launched Bristol One City Plan in January 2019. This Plan was developed through extensive consultation and citizen engagement and articulates a vision for making Bristol a fair, healthy and sustainable city for all by 2050. A commitment to the SDGs is integral to the plan. The SDGs’ vision for sustainable and inclusive prosperity that “leaves no-one behind” is strongly aligned with the city’s collective priorities and ambitions (Fox & Macleod, 2019: 8).

In 2019, Bristol became the first UK local authority to publish a VLR setting out its progress on all 17 of the SDGs. The VLR was presented to the UN in New York in 2019 at the same time as the UK Government’s VNR. The VLR was prepared by Bristol University’s Cabot Institute for the Environment in partnership with the Council’s City Office and the


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Bristol SDG Alliance (LGA & UKSSD, 2020: 17). Bristol’s pioneering VLR has influenced updating of the One City Plan and established the city’s UK leadership position in local level application of the SDGs (LGA & UKSSD, 2020: 17).

York City in north Yorkshire, England, is placing sustainability at the heart of its future actions. On 17 March 2016, the authority’s Executive approved the implementation of One Planet York, so that sustainability is put “at the heart of everything we do” and drives wider progress towards creating a sustainable, resilient, and collaborative “One Planet” city. The Council developed a One Planet Council Action Plan, with specific plans, targets and indicators. One Planet York is a growing network of organisations working to make York a more sustainable, resilient, and collaborative “One Planet” city. This includes creating a city that has a thriving local economy, strong communities, and a sustainable way of life; a city where residents are healthy, happy and prosperous (York City Council).

The City Council commissioned a development agency to examine 20 of the Council’s high-level corporate strategies. These included the Draft Local Plan, the York Economic Plan, the overarching Council Plan 2015-2019, the York Economic Strategy, and the Health and Well-being Strategy. The assessment judged that all but two of the 17 SDGs were relevant to York – the exceptions were SDG 14 (Life below water) and SDG 17 (Partnership for the Goals). It found that roughly a fifth of the 169 SDG targets were relevant to the Council and its work with partners. The Council’s corporate strategies were well aligned with 70% of those relevant targets (LGA & UKSSD, 2020: 15).

In 2019, Newcastle City Council made a commitment to mainstream the SDGs in its policies, activities, and programmes. A team from Newcastle University is collaborating with the Council and other partners to better understand the city from an SDG perspective, with the potential to

frame future collaboration and inform the city’s Future Needs Assessment. In February 2020, the Council also committed to embed the SDGs in the new workplan of the city’s Well-being for Life Board. This Board consists of organisations including the Newcastle City Council, the National Health Service in Newcastle, the voluntary and community sector, local universities and Healthwatch Newcastle, an independent statutory body that champions people using health and social care services (LGA & UKSSD, 2020: 22).

There are some examples of the application of SDGs in plan-making, including neighbourhood planning (Geraghty, 2019a: 364). For example, in London, the Knightsbridge Neighbourhood Forum has prepared the Knightsbridge Neighbourhood Plan 2017-2037, which refers specifically to the SDGs and how they contribute to development in the neighbourhood area, specifically “the principles which underpin the Plan reflect the 17 Sustainable Development Goals” (Knightsbridge Neighbourhood Forum, 2017: 19, 85).

Salford City Council in Greater Manchester, England, is using its Local Plan to drive equality issues. Chapter 5 of the Revised Draft Local Plan for Salford, a fairer city (January 2019) identifies the importance of the SDGs in achieving a fairer Salford. The plan states that “delivering a fairer Salford is central to everything that the Local Plan is seeking to accomplish” (Salford City Council, 2019: 30).

Southend-on-Sea Borough Council in Essex, England, is currently preparing a new Local Plan. The new Plan will provide the planning framework for Southend to 2036, beyond the current plan period of 2021. It is currently at the Issues and Options stage of the formal plan-making process (Southend-on-Sea Borough Council, 2019). As part of that stage, the draft plan includes sections on how different policies or issues contribute to the SDGs. The draft plan seeks to achieve the delivery of these goals through the plan-making

process and to engage the local community and stakeholders on how that might be achieved (Geraghty, 2019a: 364). As the draft plan is advanced, the SDGs will inform the development of plan policies.

6. THE IMPLEMENTATION OF SDGS IN DEVOLVED NATIONS

6.1 The implementation of SDGs in Scotland

The National Performance Framework (NPF) is the mechanism delivering the SDGs in Scotland. The NPF was recently reviewed and sets out the vision for Scotland. This vision is expressed through 11 national outcomes, a set of values that establish a collective purpose for Scotland focusing on well-being, sustainability and inclusive economic growth. The NPF is identified in statute through the Community Empowerment (Scotland Act) 2015, which places a duty on Scottish ministers to review the National Outcomes every five years. The next review is due in 2023.

There are 81 national indicators underpinning the 11 outcomes that will help track progress in achieving these long-term outcomes. The SDGs have been embedded into the NPF by mapping the goals to the outcomes and aligning the indicators, where appropriate and possible. This integration means that working towards delivering the national outcomes will also enable progress against the SDGs.

The Scottish National Outcome “Communities” corresponds closely with SDG11. It aims to create inclusive, safe, and resilient places for all, and it is monitored by eight of the NPF national indicators. One of these, the accessibility to green public space, is a close match with SDG target 11.7.

In future, policy and plans that sit below the National Performance Framework may give an opportunity to address the other nine SDG11 targets. For example, housing affordability

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is expected to be addressed in the fourth Scottish National Planning Framework (NPF4).

In contrast, the English equivalent, the NPPF, which was only revised in 2019, does not even mention the SDGs (see section 5.3).

The commitment to sustainable development is further strengthened in the Planning (Scotland) Act 2019, which identifies that the purpose of planning is to manage the development and use of land in the long-term public interest, which ties planning to sustainable development and the delivery of the Scottish national outcomes. Performance of local planning authorities in Scotland is measured by an annual Planning Performance Framework.

6.2 The implementation of SDGs in Wales

The Well-being of Future Generations (Wales) Act 2015 requires public bodies to think more about the long-term, work better with people and communities and each other, and take a more joined-up approach to improve the social, economic, environmental and cultural well-being of Wales. This Act includes ambitious, long-term goals for Wales. It sets 44 public bodies, including the Welsh Government, a legally-binding aim to work towards the seven goals set out in the Act. The Act also supports the principle of sustainable development and aligns with the Agenda 2030. It sets out the five ways of working which, when adopted, will contribute to maximising the benefits achieved across the seven goals.

There is a clear focus on improving social, economic, environmental, and cultural well-being in Wales. Progress towards the seven “well-being goals” will be measured through a set of 46 national indicators. These indicators align to, but are not an exact match with the SDGs. They reflect a localised approach to sustainable development (GTL & RG, 2016: 28).

The Act does not set milestones or a time frame to achieve the “well-being

goals”, leaving it to the action of the successive Welsh Governments to guarantee their implementation. It places a legal requirement on Welsh Ministers to set national indicators for the purpose of measuring progress towards the achievement of the “well-being goals”.

Eight of the 46 Welsh indicators are closely aligned with the SDG11 targets. The current approach to implementing the Well-being of Future Generations Act focuses on planning, housing, and transport. For example, the Welsh National Development Framework (NDF) – a spatial strategy due to be published in 2020 – will directly link to their achievement.

Each year a Well-being of Wales Report (Welsh Government, 2019) is published that provides an update of the progress, with a more detailed report issued every four to five years to review long-term performance.

Policy and monitoring in Wales is also being aligned. Planning Policy Wales (PPW10) integrates the Well-being Act into national planning policy, and the Welsh Government’s Planning Directorate has established the Planning Performance Framework to assess the contribution of Welsh planning to their achievement. Local planning authorities in Wales produce an Annual Performance Report.

The Planning Performance Framework metrics relevant to the SDG11 cover the quality and efficiency of local plans, the degree of participation in local plan-making, and the supply of land and housing. However, they do not currently address housing affordability or sustainable transport.

The commitment to sustainability is further recognised in the Environment Wales Act of 2016, which sets out a commitment to the promotion of the sustainable management of natural resources.

6.3 The implementation of SDGs in Northern Ireland

Planning was decentralised only in April 2015. Consequently, the approach to SDGs in Northern Ireland

is less evolved than in Scotland or Wales. The three elements of sustainable development, namely economic, social, and environmental, are incorporated into the Northern Ireland Civil Service Strategic Plans, rather than through separate sustainability strategies. This has resulted in the principles of sustainable development being embedded in the Northern Ireland Executive’s highest level strategy, the draft Programme for Government (H.M. Government, 2019: 12). The Strategic Planning Policy Statement for Northern Ireland: Planning for Sustainable Development (SPPS) and the Living Places Urban Stewardship and Design Guide for Northern Ireland (2014), which are designed to ensure the planning system, provide for places that encourage healthier living and promote accessibility and inclusivity. Under section 25 of the Northern Ireland (Miscellaneous Provisions) Act 2006, government departments and local authorities have a statutory duty to promote the achievement of sustainable development in the exercise of their functions. In government departments, mapping exercises have been carried out to show how delivery plans align with these goals (DAERA, 2018).

6.4 The implementation of SDGs in the Republic of Ireland

Ireland has adopted a “whole-of-Government” approach to the SDGs. In March 2018, Ireland adopted its first Sustainable Development Goals National Implementation Plan 2018-2020 (DCCAE, 2018), setting out ambitious high-level commitments that address the 17 SDGs, and taking account of the social, economic, and environmental dimensions of the 2030 Agenda. The Implementation Plan includes an ambitious “2030 Vision” for Ireland to fully achieve the SDGs at home and to support their implementation worldwide. The Implementation Plan builds on Ireland’s national sustainable development strategy (DCCAE, 2012) and Ireland’s policy for international development (Government of Ireland, 2013) and


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commits Ireland to mainstreaming the SDGs across national policy (Government of Ireland, 2018: 6). Our Sustainable Future sets out Ireland’s eight national themes and principles for achieving sustainable development. These themes reflect the traditional economic, social, and environmental dimensions of sustainability, and are closely aligned with the SDGs.

The Implementation Plan is the first in a series of implementation plans, each of which will endeavour to integrate the SDGs into national policy. The Plan identifies four strategic priorities to guide implementation:

• Awareness: Raise public awareness of the SDGs.

• Participation: Afford stakeholders the opportunity to engage and contribute to follow-up and review processes, and further develop national implementation of the Goals.

• Support: Encourage and support efforts of communities and organisations to contribute towards meeting the SDGs, and foster public participation.

• Policy alignment: Develop alignment of national policy with the SDGs and identify opportunities for policy coherence.

These priorities represent a process of localisation. While some of the SDGs are more closely aligned with individual national themes than others, Ireland’s implementation of every goal will be informed by these themes and principles as a whole, in recognition of the fact that the economic, social, and environmental dimensions of sustainable development cannot be advanced in isolation from each other. It sets out how the SDGs align with Ireland’s national themes for sustainable development. However, in order to further integrate the SDGs into national policy, Ireland will prepare and adopt a new sustainable development strategy by the end of 2020, which

will directly incorporate the SDGs (Government of Ireland, 2018: 10).

Mapping the SDGs against government policy is achieved by an SDG matrix that identifies the responsible government departments for each of the 169 targets. It also includes an SDG policy map, indicating the relevant national policies for each of the targets. The Plan also sets out 19 specific actions to be implemented over the plan period. This mapping methodology contrasts with the fragmented approach of the UK Government using SDPs, which the HoC Audit Committee concluded are “insufficient” to deliver the SDGs. The publication of an implementation plan for England would provide much needed clarity and leadership.

7. CONCLUSIONThe success of implementing the SDGs depends on government at all levels and civil society working together. Following the adoption of the 2030 Agenda, many countries have been pursuing a process of localisation, in which local and regional priorities are rooted in the implementation of the SDGs, creating a new meaningful and practical framework of governance relevant to the lives of citizens.

The UK Government’s approach to implementing the goals has been hampered by its governance arrangements and its perspective that the SDGs are for developing countries (HoC International Development Committee, 2019: 3). This has led to a lack of awareness of the existence and relevance of SDGs (HoC Environmental Audit Committee, 2019: 3-4), which has inhibited their adoption. Moreover, a lack of regional governance, coupled with years of perma-reform (Geraghty, 2019b), resulting in significant policy turbulence, has retarded their adoption in England, in particular.

Whilst there are some examples of where local government in England is beginning to take up the challenge of achieving the SDGs, reflecting

on the lessons drawn from practice in Wales, Scotland and Ireland, strong leadership across all levels of government is fundamental to implementing the SDGs. A voice at the top of government speaking for the long-term aspirations embodied in the SDGs is vitally necessary (HoC Environmental Audit Committee, 2017: 3, 31). For example, including them in a national implementation plan as in Ireland, or in primary legislation, as is the case with Wales. This is critical where regional governance is weak or non-existent, as is the case in England. Government needs to empower local authorities to fulfil the important role in meeting the challenge of implementing the SDGs. This could have been done by means of the revisions to the NPPF, or new guidance on LVRs or AMRs. Reflecting on practice elsewhere in the UK and Ireland, the recent White Paper could have been the first step in introducing such measures and mainstreaming the SDGs in England.

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How to cite: Mthembu, A. & Hlophe, S. 2020. Building resilience to climate change in vulnerable communities: A case study of uMkhanyakude district municipality. Town and Regional Planning, no.77, pp. 42-56.



Miss Anele Mthembu, eThekwini Municipality, Candidate Planner, P.O. Box 680, Durban, 4001. Phone: 0837756749, email: <[email protected]>, ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0622-1907.Miss Syathokoza Portia Hlophe, KZN EDTEA, Environmental Officer, Private Bag X2055, Dundee, 3000. Phone: 0730831599, email: <[email protected]>, ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3182-833X.

Building resilience to climate change in vulnerable communities: A case study of uMkhanyakude district municipality

Anele Mthembu & Syathokoza Hlophe





AbstractClimate change in South Africa remains an issue of socio-economic and environ-mental concern. An increase in frequency and intensity of climatic events pose significant threats to biophysical and socio-economic aspects, namely food security, water resources, agriculture, biodiversity, tourism, and poverty. In order to counteract the socio-economic and environmental concerns pertaining to issues of climate change, emergent insights on climate change strategies suggest that building resilience in human and environmental systems is an ideal way of combating dynamic environmental conditions and future uncertainties. Using the qualitative secondary data approach, this article evaluates whether vulnerable communities in uMkhanyakude District Municipality can become resilient to the implications of climate change. UMkhanyakude District Municipality is predominantly rural and one of the most impoverished districts in KwaZulu-Natal, with the majority of socially and economically marginalised individuals and households experiencing more severe impacts as a result of climate change compared to those in urban areas. Data was analysed using content analysis and a concise summary of the biophysical and socio-economic aspects is presented. This research suggests that building resilience to climate change is possible when bottom-up, proactive and systematic measures are taken to manage vulnerable areas such as those in uMkhanyakude District Municipality. It recommends that social impact assessments (SIA) be conducted to assist in terms of assessing social consequences that are likely to follow from policy actions. Keywords: Adaptation, climate change, resilience, vulnerability

BOU VEERKRAGTIGHEID TEEN KLIMAATSVERANDERING IN KWESBARE GEMEENSKAPPE: ‘N GEVALLESTUDIE VAN UMKHANYAKUDE-DISTRIKSMUNISIPALITEITKlimaatsverandering in Suid-Afrika bly ’n kwessie van maatskaplike ekonomiese en omgewingsbelang. Terwyl daar ’n toename is in frekwensie en intensiteit van klimaatsgebeurtenisse, is daar steeds beduidende bedreigings vir biofisiese en sosio-ekonomiese aspekte, naamlik voedselsekerheid, waterbronne, landbou, biodiversiteit, toerisme en armoede. Ten einde die sosio-ekonomiese en omgewingskwessies rakende klimaatsverandering teë te werk, dui opkomende insigte oor klimaatsveranderingstrategieë daarop dat veerkragtigheid in menslike en omgewingstelsels ’n ideale manier is om dinamiese omgewingstoestande en

toekomstige onsekerhede te bekamp. Met behulp van die kwalitatiewe sekondêre databenadering, evalueer hierdie artikel of kwesbare gemeenskappe in uMkhanyakude-distriksmunisipaliteit veerkragtig kan raak teen die gevolge van klimaatsverandering. UMkhanyakude-distriksmunisipaliteit is oorwegend landelik en een van die armste distrikte in KwaZulu-Natal, met ’n meerderheid sosiale en ekonomies gemarginaliseerde individue en huishoudings wat baie erger gevolge ervaar as gevolg van klimaatsverandering in vergelyking met dié in stedelike gebiede. Data is met behulp van inhoudsanalise geanaliseer en ’n bondige opsomming van die biofisiese en sosio-ekonomiese aspekte is aangebied. Hierdie navorsing dui daarop dat die bou van veerkragtigheid teenoor klimaatsverandering moontlik is as gevolg van onder, proaktiewe en stelselmatige maatreëls om kwesbare gebiede soos dié in uMkhanyakude-distriksmunisipaliteit te bestuur. Die artikel beveel aan dat maatskaplike impakstudies (SIA) gedoen word om te help met die beoordeling van maatskaplike gevolge wat waarskynlik uit beleidsaksies kan volg.Sleutelwoorde: Aanpassing, klimaats ver-an dering, kwesbaarheid, veerkrag tigheid

HO AHA MAMELLO EA PHETOHO EA MAEMO A LEHOLIMO METSENG E TLOKOTSING: PHUPUTSO EA MASEPALA OA SETEREKE SA UMKHANYAKUDEPhetoho ea maemo a leholimo Afrika Boroa e ntse e le taba ea ngongoreho ea sechaba, moruo le tikoloho. Ho nyoloha hoa maqhubu le matla a liketsahalo tsa maemo a leholimo li tlisa tlokotsi likarolong tsa tikoloho, sechaba le moruo, e leng ts’ireletso ea lijo, lisebelisoa tsa metsi, temo, mefuta-futa ea bochaba, bohahlauli le bofuma. Bakeng sa ho loants’a mathata a sechaba, moruo le tikoloho mabapi le litaba tsa phetoho ea maemo a leholimo, leseli le hlahang mabapi le maano a phetoho ea maemo a leholimo le fana ka maikutlo a hore, ho aha botsitso litsing tsa batho le tsa tikoloho ke tsela e nepahetseng ea ho loants’a maemo a tikoloho le phapang e ka tlisoang ke bokamoso. Ka ts’ebeliso ea mokhoa oa boleng bo holimo oa lipatlisiso, sengoloa sena se lekola hore na sechaba se tlokotsing seterekeng sa Mmasepala sa uMkhanyakude se ka khona ho mamella

Anele Mthembu & Syathokoza Hlophe • Building resilience to climate change in vulnerable communities

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litlamorao tsa phetoho ea maemo a leholimo. Masepala oa Setereke oa UMkhanyakude o mahaeng haholo ‘me setereke sena ke seseng sa litereke tse futsanehileng ka ho fetisisa KwaZulu-Natal, ka bongata ba batho le malapa a sotlehileng sechabeng le moruong, moo ho bileng ho nang le litlamorao tse mpe ka lebaka la phetoho ea maemo a leholimo ha a bapisoa le a libakeng tsa litoropo. Linthla Ii ile tsa hlahlojoa ho sebelisoa tlhaiso-leseling le kakaretso ea likarolo tsa tlhaho ea bophelo le moruo. Phuputso ena e fana ka maikutlo a hore ho aha boits’oaro ba phetoho ea maemo a leholimo ho a khonahala ha mehato e nkuoang ho laola libaka tse tlokotsing joalo ka tse Masepaleng oa Setereke sa uMkhanyakude, ele e hlophisehileng e bile e kenyeletsa maikutlo a sechaba. E khothaletsa hore litekolo tsa sekhahla sa kahisano (SIA) di etsoe ho thusa mabapi le ho lekola litlamorao tsa kahisano tse ka bang teng ho latela liketso tsa maano.

1. INTRODUCTION Climate change is defined as any changes in climate over time, due to natural variability or human activities (IPCC, 2007: 6). Although climate naturally changes, there is a growing concern about the changes in climate due to anthropogenic activities (Henderson, Storeygard & Deichmann, 2017: 60). Climate change is now a scientifically proven issue and poses life-threatening impacts on human beings and ecosystems. While the impacts of climate change in Africa are more severe, the continent continues to be more vulnerable to climate change as a result of high exposure and low adaptive capacity (Conway, 2009: 11; Gbetibouo, Ringler & Hassan, 2010: 177). According to Schilling, Hertig, Tramblay & Scheffran (2020: 3), South Africa is more implicated with climate change, due to the high dependence on rain-fed agriculture, coupled with poor technical, financial and institutional capacity. Agriculture is considered one of the main economic activities in South Africa, with over 60% of the population in this field, and it contributes approximately 50% to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Although climate change is regarded as a global issue, its implications are not anticipated to be homogeneous, but different

across generations, classes, regions, income groups, and gender (Mbow, Rosenzweig, Barioni, Benton, Herrero & Krishnapilla et al., 2019: 464).

Climate change has been considered the most prevalent environmental concern in South Africa, as the country’s mean annual temperatures have increased at least 1.5 time compared to the observed global average of 0.65ºC over the past fifty years, with an increase in frequency and intensity, due to extreme climatic events (Ziervogel, New, Archer Van Garderen, Midgley, Taylor & Hamann et al., 2014: 605). Catastrophic events such as droughts, floods, tropical cyclones, and urban heat islands pose a significant threat to food security, water resources, infrastructure, tourism, ecosystem services, and biodiversity (Huq, Hugè, Boon & Gain, 2015: 8438; Ziervogel et al., 2014: 606).

The threat of climate change on food security, water resources, tourism, ecosystem services and biodiversity challenges national development, due to South Africa’s high levels of poverty and inequality (Ziervogel et al., 2014: 606). Climate change projections in South Africa suggest a substantial warming of 5ºC-8ºC in the interior, wetter conditions along the eastern portion of the country, and drier conditions to the west and south of the country (DoEA, 2013). As an outcome, south-western parts of the country are projected to become drier, especially during the winter months, and a shortened winter rainfall is expected. The northern and eastern parts of the country are expected to experience an increase in rainfall during the summer months that may potentially cause flooding. Furthermore, drought incidents are also expected to proliferate throughout the country.

Studies show that South Africa is susceptible to droughts and El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which sometimes causes extreme droughts (Baudoin, Vogel, Nortje & Naik, 2017: 128). In 2015 and 2016, the country experienced an El Nino-induced drought, the severity of which resulted in the implementation of water restrictions in several cities such as Johannesburg and Cape Town (Enqvist & Ziervogel, 2019: 7).

Following these mitigation plans, South Africa experienced a massive reduction in crop production as a result of these droughts. The drought severity in the country has been increasing to a point where, on 4 March 2020, the Minister of Co-Operative Governance and Traditional Affairs declared a state of drought disaster in the country (De Wet, 2020).

According to Adams, Álvarez-Romero, Capon, Crowley, Dale, Kennard, Douglas & Pressey (2017: 57), to counteract the country’s vulnerability to climate change, emergent insights on climate change strategies suggest that building resilience in human and environmental systems is an ideal way of dealing with dynamic environmental conditions and future uncertainties. Therefore, this article evaluates whether communities in uMkhanyakude District Municipality could become resilient to climate change implications, given their vulnerability. The purpose of using uMkhanyakude District Municipality as a case study is due to the geo-economic setting of the area being predominantly rural and regarded as the poorest district municipality in KwaZulu-Natal. Studies have noted that such communities are vulnerable and lack the ability to adapt to climate change impacts, due to poor technical, financial and institutional capacity (Schilling et al., 2020: 3). As a result, this article focuses on climate change impacts, and its cascading consequences and the livelihood impacts on vulnerable communities especially in rural areas, in order to inform a bottom-up, systematic and proactive way of becoming resilient.

2. LITERATURE REVIEW

2.1 Climate change policies and programmes

South Africa is committed to addressing climate change issues, as it is a signatory to both the United Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Kyoto Protocol in terms of its efforts in reducing greenhouse gases. In addition, South Africa has also adopted the Sustainable

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Development Goals (SDGs), with Goal 1 seeking, to “end poverty in all its forms everywhere”. Target 1.5 states that by 2030, the world must “build the resilience of the poor and those in vulnerable situations and reduce their exposure and vulnerability to climate related extreme events and other economic, social, and environmental shocks and disasters”. Furthermore, Goal 13 focuses purely on climate change, calling on “urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts”. Target 13.1 states that we must “strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards and natural disasters in all countries” (UN, 2016).

Nationally, the overall policy framework for climate change is the National Climate Change Response Policy (NCCRP), which was set out in the National Climate Change Response White Paper (NCCRWP) enacted in 2011. The NCCRWP is informed by the South African Constitution 1996, Section 241, the Bill of Rights, the National Environmental Management Act (No. 107 of 1998), the agreements made at the UNFCCC, and the Millennium Agreement. During June 2018, there was a public participation process on a draft Climate Change Bill that would have specific objectives and laws for climate change (Averchenkova, Gannon & Curran, 2019: 12). The Disaster Management Amended Act (No. 16 of 2015) aims to provide measures for the disaster risk reduction through adaptation to climate change and development of early warning systems. In addition, a draft National Climate Change Adaptation (NCCA) strategy was released in 2017, but Cabinet has not adopted it. While South Africa has progressive climate change policies, implementation has been hindered by various issues such as the lack of policy alignment, coherence and coordination; policy complexity and continuity; issues with public-private engagement and consultation; gaps and constraints in information and data, and limited staff capacity at the

1 “Everyone has a right to a healthy and safe environment”.

municipal level (Averchenkova et al., 2019: 2). Studies suggest that, even if South Africa is committed to implementing those climate change policies, the country is still grappling with development issues such as poverty, lack of access to basic services, and the high unemployment rate (Segal & Cloete, 2012: Greenpeace Africa, 2015).

Chapter 5 of the National Development Plan (NDP) details the transition to a low-carbon economy as a response to climate change. The NDP acknowledges that the country is vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, with additional threats to livelihoods, health, water, and food, especially for the poor, women and children (NDP, 2012: 33). While this is the case, there is an inherent vulnerability of poor communities to environmental threats and pressures of a resource-based economy (NDP, 2012: 198).2 Unfortunately, South Africa’s capacity to effectively respond to climate change is compromised by factors such as social vulnerability, dispersed and poorly planned development, as well as lack of infrastructure, instead of systematic climate-specific interventions (NDP, 2012: 200). This has resulted in the NDP having limited success in terms of addressing climate change.

The KwaZulu-Natal Provincial Growth and Development Strategy (PGDS) is a notable response document to climate change for the Province. The PGDS (2016: 30) argues that the environmental sustainability of the Province is challenged, due to erratic and severe weather conditions such as droughts, flooding, severe storms, and poor land-use practices. This requires a great deal of attention to enhance the resilience of ecosystem services, expand the application of green technologies, as well as adapt and respond to climate change (PGDS, 1016: 37). However, one would argue that the expansion of green technologies is ignorant of the varying realities of communities.

2 This includes coal mining, which challenges mitigation strategies to reduce the implications of climate change.

2.2. Vulnerability

Vulnerability is a concept that has a wide range of research contexts. Its roots are found in natural hazards and geographic research, but a number of researchers use the concept in disaster management, climate change, adaptation, and development (Füssel, 2005: 1; Zarafashani, Sharafi, Azadi & Van Passel, 2016: 3). The cross-cutting nature of the climate change problem requires collaboration from various disciplines such as disaster management, economics, policy, and risk assessment. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) links climate change with vulnerability and mentions that the vulnerability of a specific area is reliant on its economic resources, and it is based on the idea that poverty limits an area’s coping capacity (Niang, Osman-Elasha, Githeko, Yanda, Medany & Vogel, 2008: 6; Patnaik & Narayanan, 2009: 3). Using Raemaekers and Sowman’s (2015: 5) vulnerability components, Figure 1 represents vulnerability, which is the function of the character, magnitude, rate of climate change and variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity (Brooks, 2003: 3; Cuevas, 2011: 35; Giordano, 2014). Vulnerability consists of three elements, namely exposure,3 sensitivity,4 and adaptive capacity5 (see Figure 1).

3 Exposure denotes the “presence of species, ecosystems, environmental functions, livelihoods, resources, social, economic or cultural assets that could be adversely affected by a climate-induced hazard” (IPCC, 2018: 5).

4 Sensitivity refers to the degree to which a system or species is affected either beneficially or adversely by climate change or variability (IPCC, 2007: 6).

5 Adaptive capacity is defined as the “potential, capability, or ability of a system to adapt to climate change stimuli or their effects of impacts (IPCC, 2001a: 6). It is the capacity of communities using resources, skills, information technology, services and institutions to cope with climate-related hazards and adapt to climate change, in order to anticipate, cope with, prepare and recover from climatic hazards (Smit & Pilifosova, 2001: 893; Grothmann, Grecksch, Winges & Siebenhüner, 2013: 3371; Shah, Dulal & Awojobi, 2020: 221).


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Vulnerability is categorised into biophysical and socio-economic categories. The biophysical is rooted in the physical state of people and in those categories that are at risk; these include infrastructure, proximity, and location (Salami, Von Meding & Giggins, 2017: 3; Mavhura, 2019: 73). The socio-economic is based on the specific population that will be affected by climate change and variability (Esperón-Rodríguez, Bonifacio-Bautista & Barradas, 2016: 147). The socio-economic status of people determines the intensity of the impact. The following vulnerable sectors have been evaluated to determine the impacts of climate change. These will be discussed in terms of the biophysical and socio-economic aspects.

The biophysical aspects will evaluate climate change impacts and vulnerability in four sectors, namely biodiversity, water, agriculture, and food security. Changes in temperature, rising carbon dioxide levels, and the changing rainfall patterns result in a shift of the country’s biomes, and this has implications for species diversity, ecosystem processes, and services (Ziervogel et al., 2014: 608; NCCRWP, 2011: 20). This includes shifting habitat ranges and species distribution, altering life cycles, changes in migration patterns, changes in abundance, changes in frequency, and severity of pests and diseases outbreaks

(Hoffman, Rymer, Byrne, Ruthrof, Whinam & McGeoch et al., 2019: 5). Consequently, the grassland biome is under severe threat of significant structural change, and could face significant encroachment by woody vegetation, due to the increase in temperature and rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (Hoffman et al., 2019:5). In addition, climate change significantly threatens the Nama Karoo, Forest and Fynbos biome as well as the Indian Ocean coastal belt.

Water availability is a key climate change-related vulnerability that negatively affects people, the economy, and ecosystems. As an outcome, climate change has considerable additional risks for water security, with adverse effects on sectors that are highly dependent on water sources such as agriculture (NCCRWP, 2011: 17). The decline in rainfall and the increase in temperature result in the increase of droughts, which contribute to the decline in ground and surface water and reduce the water table levels for dams that serve as sources of water supply, irrigation, and hydropower generation.

Agriculture remains one of the largest consumer of water (through irrigation) and it is highly vulnerable to changes in water availability and soil erosion from the intense rainfall events and the increased evapotranspiration (Gitz, Meybeck, Lipper, Young & Braatz, 2016: 4). This is coupled with a change in

their distribution, spatial shift in ideal growing regions and reduced yield (DoEA, 2013). The under-resourced, small-scale and subsistence farmers are highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, which leads to food insecurity and higher levels of poverty. Maize, a major subsistence crop, could see the yields being reduced as much as 10% to 20% and most of the areas will become unsuitable for maize production (DoEA, 2013).

The socio-economic aspects will evaluate climate change impacts and vulnerability in two sectors, namely tourism and poverty. Climate change is expected to have significant implications on tourism that will have associated impacts on livelihoods in terms of employment, incomes, and an increase in the cost of living (SDF, 2019: 48). This is a concern, especially in areas such as uMkhanyakude that are dependent on the tourism sector to economically uplift communities. The impoverished would become more vulnerable as they would require making means to survive below the poverty line. South Africa’s adaptive capacity is predisposed by social factors such as unemployment, and poverty and by housing typology such as informal settlements, which are highly susceptible to extreme weather events. Vulnerability is, therefore, not static, as institutions, individuals and communities including economic sectors are affected differently, irrespective of previously mentioned social factors (Mambo, 2017: 2). Hence, vulnerability is content and location specific and should be assessed, taking account of the natural and socio-economic factors of that specific location.

2.3 Adaptation Adaptation refers to the adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities. Various types of adaptation can be distinguished, including anticipatory and reactive adaptation, private

daptive capacity7 (see Figure 1).

7 Adaptive capacity is defined as the “potential, capability, or ability of a system to adapt to climate change stimuli or their effects of impacts (IPCC, 2001a: 6). It is the capacity of communities using resources, skills, information technology, services and institutions to cope with climate-related hazards and adapt to climate change, in order to anticipate, cope with, prepare and recover from climatic hazards (Smit & Pilifosova, 2001: 893; Grothmann, Grecksch, Winges & Siebenhüner, 2013: 3371; Shah, Dulal & Awojobi, 2020: 221).

Exposure Sensitivity

Potential Impact Adaptive capacity

Vulnerability

Figure 1: Vulnerability components Source: Author’s own, 2020

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and public adaptation, as well as autonomous and planned adaptation (IPCC, 2001b: 6). Further, it also refers to actions that countries and communities implement to adjust to social and environmental impacts such as climate change. Adaptation has three objectives, namely to reduce exposure to the risk of damage; to develop the capacity to cope with unavoidable damage, and to take advantage of new opportunities (Akinnagbe & Irohibe, 2014: 408). Although there are noted efforts to create an adaptation planning framework by IPCC, there is no internationally agreed methodology for creating adaptation strategies. Most of the adaptation strategies that have been created and characterised by adjustments have been done by communities (Ziervogel & Zermoglio, 2009: 134; Antwi-Agyei, Dougill & Stringer, 2013: 12). This has been due to the fact that the impacts of climate change are localised, due to variances

in demographics and economic complexities (Kihila, 2018: 3). In addition, this indicates geographical limits in the pertinence of some of these strategies. Consequently, the adaptation strategies created in relation to climate change impacts are defined in their own contexts (see Table 1).

3. STUDY AREA

UMkhanyakude District Municipality is the northernmost of the 11 district municipalities in KwaZulu-Natal (see Figure 2). At 12,818km2 and with a population of 689,090, uMkhanyakude District Municipality is the second largest district in the Province, in terms of size after its neighbouring district, Zululand District Municipality (IDP, 2018/2019: 18). It is located around latitude -27.622S and longitude 32.014E (IDP, 2018/2019: 18). It is a peri-urban and predominantly rural district with a dependency

ratio of 81.2%. This municipality is regarded as the poorest municipality in KwaZulu-Natal and one of the poorest district municipalities in South Africa (Patrick, 2020: 4).

According to Patrick (2020: 4), the district is one of the most socio-economically deprived district municipality in South Africa, ranking 51 of the 55 most deprived. UMkhanyakude District Municipality is characterised by poor economic development, limited infrastructure, and experiences of poor service delivery (Dlamini, 2018: 51; Mulopo, Kalinda & Chimbari, 2020: 2). Most of the services in this district are located and distributed in the district’s urban areas and this contributes to the inability of the local municipalities6 to provide the economic stimuli for the district municipality, in order to break the poverty cycle that is affecting its economic growth and prosperity (Dlamini, 2018: 51).

Poverty has been exacerbated by high illiteracy and lack of growth opportunities within uMkhanyakude. The poverty rate for the district municipality ranges between 72.1% and 88.6% of the total population. According to Patrick (2020: 5), over 70% of the population in uMkhanyakude survives on less than R800 per month and over 83% of the total households live below the poverty line. Approximately 14% of the unemployed population within the district has not received formal schooling and a further 17% only has an elementary level of education (Patrick, 2020: 5). It is noted that the largest percentage of the unemployed population has completed Grade 12 education and a further 30% have some form of secondary education (IDP, 2018/2019: 76). Only a small percentage of the unemployed population has completed any form of tertiary education. The extent of poverty in the rural areas in uMkhanyakude has forced 95% of the inhabitants to survive through subsistence farming, grants from the

6 UMhlabuyalingana Municipality (KZ 271), Jozini Municipality (KZ 272), Mtubatuba Municipality (KZ 275) and the Big Five Hlabisa Municipality (KZ 276).

Table 1: Adaptation responses to climate changeSector Adaptation strategies

Biodiversity

Strengthen institutional arrangements to further develop expanded public works programmes (EPWP) for building ecosystem and community resilience through the restoration of wetlands, controlling wildfires, removing alien plants and other sustainability programmes. These approaches can be included at local government (DoEA, 2016: 58)

WaterAdopt a low or no-regrets approach concerning decisions about water infrastructure, in the context of climate change, to balance socio-economic considerations with ecological considerations (DoEA, 2016: 50)

Agriculture

Crop management

Crop diversification, intercropping, crop rotation, increase of farm size, use of organic/chemical fertiliser, drought-tolerant/early maturing varieties, change timing of land preparation/planting, crop irrigation, grain storage, sharecropping. Climate-smart agriculture, extension support (Kihila, 2018: 4-5; Wiederkehr, Beckmann & Hermans, 2018: 7)

Soil and water management

Erosion control, terracing, drainage ditches, ridges, micro-catchments, ploughing, stone bunds, mulching, digging of boreholes and wells, construction of small dams, water storage, drinking water treatment (Wiederkehr et al., 2018: 7)

Early warning system Provision of seasonal forecast or community weather monitoring station (DoEA, 2018: 24)

Human health

Ensure provision of clean sanitation and freshwater services to reduce water-borne diseases. Continuous water quality tests should be done frequently to monitor and manage the spread of water-borne diseases. Manage the incidence and spread of climate-related water-borne disease vectors (DoEA, 2016: 61)

Indigenous knowledge

Encourage the local people to practise and share their indigenous knowledge information (Kihila, 2018: 2)

Other adaptation strategies

Social networks Rely on support from friends or relatives, receive remittances (Wiederkehr et al., 2018: 7)

Income diversification Trading, pottery, tourism, local wage labour, sell bush plants (Wiederkehr et al., 2018: 7)

Food provisionWork for food, eat wild fruits, change diet, reduce food consumption, seek food aid, buy food, sell assets to buy food, harvest to obtain food, plant food trees, store food (Wiederkehr et al., 2018: 7)

Source: DoEA (2016; 2018; 2019); Kihila (2018); Wiederkehr et al. (2018)


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government as well as remittances from family members working outside the municipality (Dlamini, 2018: 53; SDF, 2019/2020: 45). The main economic sectors in uMkhanyakude are agriculture, tourism, and trade. However, all these sectors have experienced adverse effects, due to the impacts of climate change.

4. METHODOLOGYA qualitative secondary data approach was used to evaluate whether vulnerable communities in uMkhanyakude District Municipality could become resilient to the implications of climate change (Ruggiano & Perry, 2019: 83). The gathered data included the strategic framework, integrated development plan and related climate change plans from uMkhanyakude District Municipality, as well as relevant

journal articles that were accessed through Google Scholar, Scopus and Science Direct. The search criteria included “climate change”, “vulnerability”, “adaptation”, “food security”, “agriculture”, “water”, “biodiversity”, “tourism”, “poverty” in the topic field of literature, in order to determine the impacts of climate change and their cascading consequences on the biophysical and socio-economic aspects.

The gathered data used content analysis, whereby related climate change data was evaluated to reflect on key aspects such as the biophysical and socio-economic that have been used to determine whether uMkhanyakude could become resilient (Bengtsson, 2016: 8). Therefore, a concise summary of key findings, categorised according to the biophysical and

socio-economic aspects (agriculture, water, food security, biodiversity, tourism and poverty) evaluates whether vulnerable communities within the District Municipality could become resilient.

5. FINDINGS

5.1 Biophysical aspects

5.1.1 Biodiversity

According to Hoffman et al. (2019: 5), the main implication of climate change on biodiversity is the decrease in the availability and quantity of suitable habitats, and some ecosystems may expand into new areas, while others may decrease. Consistent with biophysical conditions in uMkhanyakude District Municipality, there has been a loss of high-priority biomes such as

Figure 2: Locality map of uMkhanyakude District Municipality Source

Figure 2: Locality map of uMkhanyakude District MunicipalitySource: Author’s own (2020)

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grasslands and coastal belts. There has also been an increase in the proliferation of invasive alien species, which outcompete indigenous plants (see Table 2) (IDP, 2018/2019: 44).

Table 2: Invasive alien species contained in uMkhanyakude District Municipality

Invasive alien species Condensed hectares (Ha)

Chromolaena odorata 31,522Eucalyptus spp. 4,314Lantana camara 1,538Psidium guajava 872Pinus spp. 315Melia azedarach 176Solanum mauritianum 149

Source: IDP, 2018/2019: 44

It is worth noting that a total of 19 invasive alien species were singled out for eradication, of which five were identified as priority species for immediate attention and eradication, namely Ipomoea carnea subsp., Fistulosa, Pereskia aculeate, Chromolaena odorata, and the Lantana camara (IDP, 2018/2019: 44). According to the IDP (2018/2019: 44), some work is done within the District regarding alien plant control through programmes by the Department of Agriculture and Environmental Affairs, Ezemvelo KwaZulu-Natal Wildlife, iSimangaliso Wetland Park, and the Department of Water and Sanitation.

5.1.2 WaterAccording to the IDP (2018/2019: 82), access to basic water infrastructure remains one of the key challenges within the District. This is supported by the proportion of households that have access to water through regional and local water schemes, being 42% compared to the provincial figure of 72% (IDP, 2018/2019: 82). Approximately 30% of the households utilise untreated sources of water directly from dams, springs or rivers, and this is alarming as the provincial total is only 13%.

According to Dlamini (2018: 58), the District falls within the Mfolozi/Pongolo primary catchment area, one of the District’s main

catchment area that is shared with neighbouring countries Swaziland and Mozambique, and the bordering municipalities. The transboundary nature of the catchment area and the diverse aquatic and wetland inhabitants of the water system rely on sustainable management of the system’s resources (Dlamini, 2018: 57). These features have contributed significantly towards the main economic sectors; however, the unstable supply of water has compromised most if not all of these sectors.

Jozini Local Municipality is home to one of the largest dams in KwaZulu-Natal, the Jozini Dam, which was recognised, near the town of Jozini in 1973, as part of the Pongolapoort-Makhathini flats Government Water Scheme (GWS) (Dlamini, 2018: 58).

The Jozini Dam was primarily built for controlling flooding and storing water for irrigation of agriculture. While this is one of the largest dams in the country, it also has the potential to assist in terms of supplying water to the District (see Figure 3). Unfortunately, due to the historical development of this dam and private ownership rights, it has contributed less to the inhabitants who need water for subsistence farming and consumption (Dlamini, 2018: 58).

Over the years, other water sources within the District have experienced a considerable decline in water quality, as a result of sugarcane farming and the seepage of sulphate from adjacent mines (Dlamini, 2018: 61). Other factors include the Mfolozi River which has less water during

Figure 3: Pongolapoort/Jozini Dam Source: Dlamini, 2018: 59


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dry seasons. This has contributed to the high silt abstraction levels.

Furthermore, the deterioration of water quality has led to a lack of drinkable water and water cleanliness in the District, as per the water-quality standards. The increase in water-related natural disasters means that less water is available to dilute wastewater discharges and irrigation return flows to rivers, and the uMfolozi and Phongolo rivers are dry (SDF, 2019: 48). In terms of availability, less water is available for drinking and irrigation, and the increase in drought events results in less water being available for domestic use. The Jozini, Hluhluwe and uMfolozi rivers have low water levels (Gwala, 2018: 48).

Figure 4 highlights the average rainfall over a period of time in uMkhanyakude, in accordance with 4 water features, using the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) measured in millimetres. According to Gwala (2018: 48), the Mbhuzana river experienced

the highest rainfall in 1996 with 1 millimetre and the lowest rainfall in 2015 with -2.5 millimetres. The Riverview river experienced its highest rainfall in 2000 with 2 millimetres and the lowest in 2016 with -3 millimetres. The Pongolapoort Dam experienced its highest rainfall in 2000 with 2 millimetres and the lowest in 2003 with 1.5 millimetres. The Ingwavuma Manguzi river experienced its highest rainfall in 2000 with 1.5 millimetres and its lowest in 2016 with -4 millimetres (Gwala, 2018: 49). SPI drought categories indicate that between 0 to -0.99 of the drought category is mild drought; -1 to -1.49 is moderate drought; -1.5 to -1.99 is severe drought, and -2.00 or less is extreme drought. Figure 4 shows that the extreme drought years were between 2015 and 2016 for Mbhuzana and Ingwavuma Manguzi, respectively.

To address water quality, water-related infrastructure and climate change, uMkhanyakude developed a Water Master Plan that was adopted

by the Council in 2017. It revealed that most of the existing infrastructure is in a state of disrepair, due to years of poor maintenance and negligence (IDP, 2018/2019: 125). The lack of maintenance of the existing infrastructure has given rise to high maintenance backlogs, resulting in limited water supplies for most of the communities. The Plan identifies the maintenance and upgrade requirements for the district, which compete for limited fiscal resources with new infrastructure meant for first time access to water resources.

5.1.3 Agriculture

Agriculture is considered to be one of the cornerstones of the District’s economic development. A substantial portion of land in the District, which is predominantly located on the eastern part of uMkhanyakude consists of high agricultural potential (see Figure 5). Approximately 20% of the District is considered to have high potential agricultural activities, with 52% considered as having medium

low water levels (Gwala, 2018: 48). Figure 4: The severity of drought for Mbhuzana river, Riverview river, Pongolapoort Dam and Ingwavuma Manguzi river using the Standardised Precipitation Index (Gwala, 2018: 50)

Figure 4: The severity of drought for Mbhuzana river, Riverview river, Pongolapoort Dam and Ingwavuma Manguzi river using the Standardised Precipitation Index (Gwala, 2018: 50)

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potential (IDP, 2018/2019: 67). It is noted that land with high agricultural potential is under threat from unsustainable land uses, poor agricultural practices, and land reform. This land requires suitable protection for potential commercial agricultural uses in the future.

According to the IDP (2018/2019: 41), nearly 95% of the uMkhanyakude’s population are rural dwellers, of whom most of the households rely at least partly on subsistence agriculture to meet their food requirements. Big Five Hlabisa is characterised by commercial and subsistence agriculture, which is most widespread in the old Hlabisa municipal side

covering most of the area. The Big Five False Bay Municipality is characterised by both commercial and subsistence agriculture around Hluhluwe (SDF, 2019: 45).

UMhlabuyalingana is bordered by the Pongola River in the west, which incorporates the Pongola Floodplains and the Makhathini Flats that contain

Figure 5: Agricultural potential in uMkhanyakude District Municipality Source: IDP, 2018/2019: 70

Figure 5: Agricultural potential in uMkhanyakude District Municipality Source: IDP, 2018/2019: 70


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formal and irrigated croplands (IDP, 2018/2019: 68). Irregular subsistence agriculture occurs within the central and eastern areas, and this is partially due to the general lack of water resources, which compromises permanent water for irrigation of crops. Another contributing factor is the poorly drained area. The reason why the area is mainly unsuitable for agriculture is due to the great extent to which the municipality is situated in a near natural ecological state (IDP, 2018/2019: 68).

Mtubatuba has a very high agricultural potential, and it is the least rural municipal area of uMkhanyakude. According to the IDP (2018/2019: 68), the expansion of the iSimangaliso Wetland Park has meant that there is competition for land resources in Mtubatuba, especially in the southern regions. To protect commercial agricultural activities and forestry, the municipality has endorsed its urban edge development strategy to promote sustainable development.

Sugarcane is the dominant commercial crop in the District and has had an impact on the local watercourses. Further, sugarcane farming practices tend to encroach on the riparian parts of rivers which has a negative impact. The high volumes of irrigation water needed means that the watercourses only receive a substantial amount of agricultural runoff (IDP, 2018/2019: 68).

5.1.4 Food security Climate change projections suggest that rain-fed agriculture in uMkhanyakude is likely to be negatively affected, due to lower annual rainfall, high temperatures, increased hydrological risk, increased rainfall variability, drying of top soils, less water in the soil for irrigating plants, and increased irrigation needs. For that reason, this forms the basis for small-holder agriculture. UMkhanyakude has approximately 20% of land that has high agricultural potential. Unfortunately, infrastructural backlogs, climate-related impacts on water resources as well as agricultural practices that

are unsustainable and have negative impacts have adverse impacts on food security and livelihoods (IDP, 2018/2019: 41). There are no statistics to indicate how many households are at risk of food insecurity or findings to depict future trends in terms of food security.

5.2 Socio-economic aspects

5.2.1 Tourism According to the IDP (2018/2019: 145), uMkhanyakude District Municipality has one of the best climatic conditions in KwaZulu-Natal and South Africa and contributes significantly towards tourism. This entails warm weather, which is conducive for renewable energy generation. However, climate change is projected to have a significant impact on the tourism sector, with resultant impacts on livelihoods in uMkhanyakude. A rise in sea level and loss of biodiversity are projected to impact on the tourism sector, since uMkhanyakude has some of the most pristine dune environments in the world, and their erosion would be a significant loss in terms of tourism and livelihoods. Consequently, it is worth noting that it is not possible to quantify the impacts on tourism and livelihoods, as an outcome of the loss of biodiversity and changes in sea level (SDF, 2019: 48).

5.2.2 PovertySocial inequalities such as lack of access to basic services, income, urban-bias, spatial and poverty are most prevalent in the rural areas, and increase the individuals’ exposure to climate hazards, increase the susceptibility to damage caused by climatic hazards, and decrease the ability to cope with and recover from the damage (UNICEF, 2011; Cardona, Van Aalyst, Birkmann, Fordham, McGregor & Perez et al., 2012; Islam & Winkel, 2017; Hallegatte, Voqt-Schilb, Rozenberg, Bangalore & Baudet, 2020).

According to Patrick (2020: 5), the poverty rate of the District is extremely high and ranges between 72.1% and 88.6% of the total

population; high illiteracy rates have been identified to increase levels of poverty. According to the IDP (2018/2019: 76), the completion of secondary school education does not guarantee any form of formal employment, as 35% of the unemployed population has a secondary school qualification (see Figure 6). Figure 6 highlights that a tertiary education or a skills-based qualification guarantees, to some extent, employment to contribute towards transforming the District.

In uMkhanyakude, approximately 70% of the unemployed population is younger than 35 years of age, of whom 35.2% is younger than 25 years of age, and 34.9% is aged between 25 and 34 years (IDP, 2018/2019: 75). The vast majority of the unemployed population younger than 25 years was under the Hlabisa Local Municipality during the 2011 STATS census; this local municipality has since been merged with Big Five False Bay Municipality. This means that the Big Five Hlabisa Municipality has the highest rate of unemployment of individuals under the age of 25 years.

Table 3 highlights that uMkhanyakude District Municipality has a low adaptive capacity to the implications of climate change. This is projected to result in poor and rural communities being increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change.

6. CONCLUSION This article evaluated whether vulnerable communities in uMkhanyakude District Municipality, which is predominantly rural and regarded as the poorest district municipality in KwaZulu-Natal, could become resilient to the implications of climate change. The focus was on the implications of climate change in uMkhanyakude District Municipality, using the vulnerability categories of biophysical and socio-economic. Climate change remains one of the biggest environmental challenges in South Africa, with severe implications for socio-economic livelihoods of the rural people. It is evident

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SSB/TRP/MDM 2020 (77) transforming the District. Figure 6: Level of education of unemployed population in uMkhanyakude District Municipality Source: IDP, 2018/2019: 77

Figure 6: Level of education of unemployed population in uMkhanyakude District Municipality

Source: IDP, 2018/2019: 77

highest rate of unemployment of individuals under the age of 25 years.

Figure 7: Employment status of economically active population in uMkhanyakude District Municipality Source: IDP, 2018/2019: 75

Figure 7: Employment status of economically active population in uMkhanyakude District Municipality

Source: IDP, 2018/2019: 75

Table 3: Vulnerable sectors in uMkhanyakude District Municipality

Sector Sector description Exposure Sensitivity Adaptive capacity

Water resources Less water available for irrigation and drinking. Yes High Low

Biodiversity Loss of priority wetlands and river ecosystems. Yes High Low

Agriculture and food security

Increased exposure to pests such as eldana, chilo and codling mothChange in grain (maize, wheat and barley)

Yes High Low

Human health Increased water-borne and communicable diseases (typhoid, fever, cholera, and hepatitis)

Yes High Low

Source: uMkhanyakude Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment and Response Plan, 2019: 7-8

that climate change is a natural phenomenon. However, the climate is changing at abnormal rates, due to the interference of human activities on climatic variables.

The findings revealed that, in terms of the biophysical aspects of uMkhanyakude, the District’s invasive alien species compromise water security and ecosystem services since they compete with crops. This impacts on food security. Findings further revealed that, although climate change mainly impacts on water resources within the District, infrastructural backlogs due to poor maintenance and negligence also impact on the communities’ access to water resources. Although agriculture is considered one of the cornerstones of the District’s economic development, tourism and trade industries contribute significantly towards the overall functioning of the Municipality. Climate change impacts on agriculture, while unsustainable land management causes a decline in food security, poor agricultural yields and crop production as well as the loss of income for small-holder farmers. This compromises the livelihoods of communities that are dependent on rain-fed agriculture.

Vulnerable communities in uMkhanyakude District Municipality have a low adaptive capacity, which limits their ability to become resilient to the implications of climate change. Further, due to their disaster management unit operating in a silo and lacking bottom-up participation of vulnerable communities, the importance of indigenous knowledge has been overlooked when it comes to drafting plans to address climate change and natural disasters. Until there is a shift in terms of paradigms, uMkhanyakude will continue to face the impacts of climate change and their cascading consequences, unless there is a systematic, bottom-up and proactive initiative that will consider grassroot participation, in order to become resilient. This research thus shows that uMkhanyakude District Municipality is not resilient to the implications of climate change, due


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to top-down approaches and reactive strategies to climate change.

7. RECOMMENDATIONSThe use of indigenous knowledge is significant in climate change adaptation and building resilience, and this is recognised through enabling indigenous knowledge in the design and implementation of projects sustainably (Kihila, 2018: 2). Although indigenous communities are localised, they have emancipatory knowledge that could be considered and used to improve the resilience to climate change. Participatory governance could also assist in finding solutions that consider the environmental characteristics of a region, which could make the solutions manageable and meaningful. Due to their comprehension on complex social-ecological systems, they make it easier for the development of useful and effective coping and adaptation strategies (Adams et al., 2017: 57).

One of the management priorities for combating climate change is to create awareness (SDF, 2019/2020: 45); however, one may argue that creating awareness is not sufficient to building resilience and addressing the implications of climate change. Hence, it is recommended that improving resilience to climate change could implement sustainable development and improve coping capacity. Planning for adaptation must begin with an assessment of the vulnerable communities including their coping capacities and the realisation that adaptation strategies are susceptible to change, and they are not universal. This may be more beneficial than solely creating awareness to climate change.

A climate change strategy was recommended in the uMkhanyakude District Municipality (IDP Review 2018/2019). However, Ziervogel et al. (2014: 613) argue that there are institutional barriers in addressing climate change. These institutional barriers include a lack of capacity both in terms of communities and technical rationality, high turnover

of staff in government departments, limited comprehension of, and expertise in tackling climate-related issues, climate change being regarded as a development challenge instead of an environmental challenge that affects livelihoods. These barriers may take some time to resolve. The implications of climate change continue to affect communities. Therefore, in the case of uMkhanyakude District Municipality, while institutional barriers are considered, an implementation-oriented process that will take place in a systematic, proactive and bottom-up manner, needs to commence to ensure that vulnerable communities have access to bulk infrastructure.

Lastly, conducting social impact assessments (SIAs) would be beneficial when systematic, bottom-up and proactive measures are in place within the district municipality. This would assist in terms of assessing social consequences that are likely to follow from specific policy actions or project development, especially in the context of appropriate national or provincial environmental policy legislation (Esteves, Franks & Vanclay, 2012). Conducting social impact assessments would prevent unnecessary environmental consequences of development to the most vulnerable social groups and play a significant role towards sustainable development.

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How to cite: Myers, G., Walz, J. & Jumbe, A. 2020. Trends in urban planning, climate adaptation and resilience in Zanzibar, Tanzania. Town and Regional Planning, no.77, pp. 57-70.

Dr. Garth A. Myers, PhD. Paul E. Rather Distinguished Professor of Urban International Studies and Director, Center for Urban and Global Studies, 300 Summit Street, Trinity College, Hartford, Connecticut, USA 06106. Phone: 1-860-297-4273, email: <[email protected]>, ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5370-2389.Dr. Jonathan R. Walz, PhD. Associate Professor, Climate and Environment, School for International Training-Graduate Institute, Brattleboro, Vermont, USA and Zanzibar, Tanzania. P.O. Box 3040 Vuga, Zanzibar, Tanzania. Phone: 255-754313545, email: <[email protected]>, ORCID: https://orcid.org/000-0003-4647-8504.Dr. Aboud S. Jumbe, PhD. Environmental Scientist, Department of Environment, Government of Zanzibar, P.O. Box 628, Zanzibar, Tanzania. Tel: 255-778900448, email: <[email protected]>, ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8563-3071.

Trends in urban planning, climate adaptation and resilience in Zanzibar, Tanzania

Garth Myers, Jonathan Walz & Aboud Jumbe


Peer reviewed and revised November 2020



AbstractOver recent decades, there has been substantial change in Zanzibar, due to, among others, global climate change impacts. The semi-autonomous polity faces challenges to foster resilient urban communities and planning for mitigation and adaptation to climate change, not least because of its island nature and rapid urbanization. This article addresses urban and environmental planning measures from 2010 to 2020 aimed at confronting the impacts of climate change and working toward resilience and adaptation in urban Zanzibar. The study was conducted between June and August 2020, and primarily involved a combination of desktop studies, online discussions, and virtual meetings with key actors in the land, climate, and disaster risk policy and governance aspects in Zanzibar. The review provides information on the current responses to policy, legal and institutional setup in terms of the key issues related to land use, climate and disaster risk reduction in Zanzibar. Thematic analysis was used to connect land-use planning, climate adaptation, and disaster risk reduction documentation of the situational assessment, determination and respective recommendations concerning land use and climate adaptation. It is argued that planning for climate change requires greater social will, financial investment, and the conversion of science to policy than currently exists in Zanzibar. Dynamic individual and governmental efforts and select community engagement are likely insufficient to produce resilience, as large-scale donor-funded climate adaptation interventions are largely top-down in orientation and often miss out on local community-oriented climate solutions. Smaller NGOs are more practical for understanding and addressing community-oriented priorities to support climate-resilient initiatives and enhance local livelihood priorities and participation against climate impacts, including natural disasters and everyday degradation. The article concludes with policy recommendations both specific to Zanzibar and relevant across the region.Keywords: Adaptation, global climate change, policy interventions, urban planning, Zanzibar

TENDENSE IN STEDELIKE BEPLANNING, KLIMAATSAANPASSING EN VEERKRAGTIGHEID IN ZANZIBAR, TANZANIËDie afgelope dekades het daar aan-sien like verandering in Zanzibar plaasgevind, onder meer weens die wêreldwye impak op klimaats-verandering. Die semi-outonome rege-ring staar uitdagings in die gesig om veerkragtige stedelike gemeenskappe te bevorder en te beplan vir die versagting en aanpassing by klimaatsverandering, nie die minste nie, te wyte aan die aard van die eiland en vinnige verstedeliking. Hierdie artikel handel oor stads- en omge wings beplanningsmaatreëls van 2010 tot 2020 wat daarop gemik is om die gevolge van klimaatsverande-ring die hoof te bied en te werk aan veerkragtigheid en aanpassing in stedelike Zanzibar. Tematiese ontledings is gebruik om landgebruiks-beplanning, klimaats aanpassing en rampri sikover minderingsdokumentasie van die situasiebepaling, vasstelling en onderskeie aanbevelings rakende grondgebruik en klimaatsaanpassing te verbind. Die argument is dat die beplanning vir klimaatsverandering groter maatskaplike wil, finansiële investering en die omskakeling van weten skap tot beleid vereis as wat tans in Zanzibar bestaan. Dinamiese individuele en regeringspogings en uitgesoekte gemeen skapsbetrok-ken heid is waarskynlik onvoldoende om veer kragtigheid te bewerkstellig, aangesien grootskaalse skenkers gefinansierde klimaat saan passings-intervensies grotendeels van bo na onder in oriëntering is en die plaaslike gemeenskapsgerigte klimaat op lossings mis. Kleiner NRO’s is meer prakties om gemeenskapsgerigte prioriteite te verstaan en aan te spreek om klimaats-bestande inisiatiewe te ondersteun en plaas like lewens bestaanprioriteite en deelname teen klimaatsinvloede te verbeter, insluitend natuurrampe en alledaagse agteruitgang. Die artikel gee beleidsaanbevelings, spesifiek

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vir Zanzibar en ook relevant in die hele streek.Sleutelwoorde: Aanpassing, beleidsin-tervensies, stedelike beplanning, wêreld-wye klimaats verandering, Zanzibar

MEKHOA EA MERALO EA LITOROPO, HO IKAMAHANYA LE MAEMO A LEHOLIMO LE BOTSITSO TOROPONG EA ZANZIBAR, TANZANIALilemong tse mashome tsa ho feta, ho bile le phetoho e kholo Zanzibar, ka lebaka la hara tse ling, litlamorao tsa phetoho ea maemo a leholimo. Leano le ikemetseng la boipuso le tobane le liphephetso ho matlafatsa sechaba sa litoropo se ikemiselitseng le ho rala bakeng sa ho fokotsa le ho ikamahanya le phetoho ea maemo a leholimo, haholoholo ka lebaka la hore kesehlekehleke seo litoropo tsa sona li holang ka potlako e kholo. Sengoliloeng sena se bua ka mehato ea moralo oa litoropo le tikoloho ho tloha 2010 ho isa 2020 e reretsoeng ho tobana le litlamorao tsa phetoho ea maemo a leholimo le ho sebeletsa ho ba le botsitso le ho ikamahanya le maemo a leholimo litoropong tsa Zanzibar. Phuputso e entsoe pakeng tsa Phuptjane le Phato 2020, mme e kenyelletsa haholo-holo motswako oa lithuto tsa desktop, lipuisano le likopano tsa inthanete le batšehetsi ba ka sehloohong molemong oa maano a mobu, maemo a leholimo, maemo a leholimo le likotsi tsa koluoa ‘mooho le puso toropong ea Zanzibar. Tlhatlhobo ena e fana ka tlhaiso-leseling mabapi le likarabo tsa hajoale ho maano, melao le tlhophiso ea setheo ho latela lintlha tsa bohlokoa tse amanang le ts’ebeliso ea mobu, maemo a leholimo le likotsi tsa likoluoa Zanzibar. Tlhatlhobo ea lihloho e sebelisitsoe ho hokahanya moralo oa ts’ebeliso ea mobu, ho ikamahanya le maemo a leholimo, le litokomane tsa phokotso ea likotsi tsa likoluoa, boikemisetso le likhothaletso tse fapaneng mabapi le ts’ebeliso ea mobu le phetoho ea maemo a leholimo. Ho hlahisoa hore ho rala phetoho ea maemo a leholimo ho hloka thato e kholo ea sechaba, tsetelo ea lichelete le phetolelo ea mahlale ho maano, ‘me sena se lokela ho etsahala maemoong a holimo ho feta a teng Zanzibar. Boiteko bo matla ba motho ka mong le ba mmuso le ho khetha tšebelisano ‘moho le sechaba li kanna tsa se lekane ho hlahisa mamello, joalo ka ha liphallelo tse kholo tse tšehelitsoeng ke bafani li le maemong a holimo haholo’ me hangata li fetoa ke tharollo ea maemo a leholimo a lehae. Mekhatlo e ikemetseng e

sebetsa haholo bakeng sa kutloisiso le ho sebetsana le lintho tse tlang pele sechabeng tse tšehetsang mehato ea ho loants’a maemo a hlobaetsang a leholimo le ho ntlafatsa merero ea boipheliso ea lehae le ho nka karolo khahlanong le litlamorao tsa maemo a leholimo, ho kenyeletsoa likoluoa tsa tlhaho le ho senyeha hoa letsatsi le letsatsi. Sengoloa se phetheloa ka likhothaletso tsa maano a ikhethileng ho Zanzibar le ho sebetsa ho potoloha le naha.

1. INTRODUCTIONThe years 1990 to 2020 brought tremendous political, economic, social and environmental changes to Zanzibar. Since 1990, the semi-autonomous polity within the United Republic of Tanzania has experienced the re-introduction of both a multiparty political system and a capitalist economy built primarily around tourism (Keshodkar, 2013: 55-86; Gössling, 2002: 540-541; Killian, 2008: 100-109). These transformations have coincided with both the substantial migration of mainland Tanzanians to the islands and significant influences from global social forces, including the near-constant presence of many thousands of European and North American tourists amid the global revitalization of Islam (Keshodkar, 2013: 111-138; Larsen, 2005: 145-157). This change has both produced significant environmental change and coincided with the acceleration of palpable impacts from global climate change (Myers, 2002: 149; Myers, 2016: 83-11).

Change creates an extraordinarily challenging landscape in which to foster resilient urban communities and planning for mitigation and adaptation to accelerating climate change impacts. Zanzibar has rapidly urbanized throughout the period since its independence (December 1963), revolution (January 1964), and union with Tanganyika to form Tanzania (April 1964) (Muhajir, 2020: 9; Myers, 1993: 21; Myers, 2016: 83). This small archipelago (with its main islands of Unguja – often called Zanzibar – where the city of Zanzibar is located, and Pemba) has a population of roughly 1.8 million

(Muhajir, 2020: 15). The urban area also known as Zanzibar serves as the capital, with an estimated metropolitan population of just over 700,000 as of 2020 (Muhajir, 2020: 26). This figure combines the Zanzibar Urban District, with slightly over 200,000 people (including the small ‘Stone Town’ historic district, now home to less than 10,000) and the rapidly urbanizing West A and West B districts with 500,000 residents (Myers, 2020: 82). The urban area’s population is now 14 times the size it was (less than 50,000) in 1963 (Myers, 1993: 347; Muhajir, 2020: 28). This rapid pace of urbanization comes with a sprawling geographical footprint, since most of the residential development consists of single-family homes, compounding sustainability challenges in spheres such as solid waste management, air and water pollution, soil and beach erosion, and environmental health (Paula, 2016: 91-93).

From 2010 to 2020, environmental planning measures sought to confront climate change impacts and ensure resilience and adaptation in urban Zanzibar. However, such efforts became entangled in a power dynamic between land-use authorities and the city’s residents. The land tenure system in Zanzibar is guided under the Land Tenure Act – the principal land legislation that was promulgated in 1992. The Commission for Lands (COLA) is mandated to implement the Zanzibar land policy, subsequent land management related acts, set standards and norms for land ownership and rights, including dispute settlements, as well as integrate land-use planning, conservation and management activities (Revolutionary Government of Zanzibar, 2017: 1). The Land Tenure Act has since undergone numerous amendments in response to the growing friction between land-use authorities and local communities over the land ownership-development nexus. As a result, the Act has been implemented under conditions of growing challenges that result from accelerated population growth, urban sprawl, non-inclusive land-use

Garth Myers, Jonathan Walz & Aboud Jumbe • Trends in urban planning, climate adaptation and resilience in Zanzibar, Tanzania

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planning approaches, and social inequity. This compounding effect of social and environmental pressures has precipitated endless land-use conflicts and induced numerous impediments to address the impacts of climate change. Such precipitous outcomes have often negatively affected the sustainability of the country’s development plan.

This article examines the government-led, poverty-reduction and strategic growth development (popularly known by its Swahili acronym as “MKUZA”) planning efforts working toward resilience, mitigation, and adaptation in urban Zanzibar. Given the size of Unguja Island (Zanzibar island) and the intertwined economies of urban Zanzibar and communities throughout the island – for example, the city’s landfill is miles outside the Urban-West Region, and all tourist arrivals depend on the city’s infrastructure regardless of their eventual destination on Unguja –, the entire island is included in the analysis, with some reference to the urbanizing contexts of less-populated but nearby Pemba island (Myers, 2016: 98). It is argued that planning for climate change requires greater social will and a sustained financial investment than currently exist in Zanzibar. Dynamic individual and governmental efforts and select community engagement are likely insufficient to produce resilience, unless there is a cohesive strategy to ensure social equity and inclusion aimed at the islands’ local community-oriented climate solutions that enhance local livelihood priorities against climate impacts.

The narrative begins by framing climate change and urban planning in Africa, including the continent’s contributions and vulnerabilities. Zanzibar is targeted as a case study, because it is an island exposed to intensifying cyclonic episodes from the outer western Indian Ocean region, fluctuating precipitation, flooding, rising seas, and changed air and sea surface temperatures. These documented changes have impacted on its people and their livelihoods,

its urban infrastructure, and its natural resources. Next, Zanzibar’ primary climate adaptation strategies and action plans are reviewed, including their policy and financing interventions for sustainability. It is noted that Zanzibar’s planning and implementation have not sufficiently addressed climate change impacts, due in part to the island’s rapid population growth and a climate-land nexus scenario that is overwhelming natural resources accessibility. It is argued that there is an urgent need to strengthen institutional capacity for planning, implementation, and inter-sectoral collaboration, in order to reduce the threats and impacts of climate-linked natural disasters. While Zanzibar has had remarkable productivity in terms of new climate and environmental change plans and institutions for urban and island-wide management, evidence suggests that these have not been sufficient to mitigate impacts and ensure resilience in the archipelago. Large scale, but particularly NGO-based financing and mainstreaming of climate adaptation is urgently needed. Probabilistic assessments of climate risks impacts should employ technology and data sets to address and reduce vulnerabilities. The conclusion suggests new and updated strategies to tackle the ongoing challenges of urban planning and climate change resilience and adaptation in Zanzibar and the wider region.

2. METHODOLOGYThe study was conducted between June and August 2020, and primarily involved a combination of desktop studies, online discussions, and virtual meetings with key actors in the land, climate, and disaster risk policy and governance aspects in Zanzibar. Specifically, the study entailed the desktop review of relevant policies, strategies, legislation, documentation, and grey literature related to climate, disaster risk and land-use planning in Zanzibar. The key focus was to address progress, opportunities, and challenges that Zanzibar faced in the midst of the

Government of Zanzibar’s efforts to address climate change adaptation, disaster risk preparedness and land-use planning – under resource limitations. The review of secondary data, including peer-reviewed and academic sources, publications from official development assistance programmes relevant to climate, disaster risk and development interventions in Zanzibar were key in the development of this study.

Secondary data was collected via an online search or personal contacts with relevant agencies, and selective online and virtual meetings on climate, disaster risk and land nexus with purposively selected stakeholders in Zanzibar. The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic severely limited the targeted attempt to address cross-sectoral institutional consultations, in-person meetings, and focused discussions with stakeholders. Alternatively, we reviewed key Government policy and legal documents, publications from development partners such as the United Nations, World Bank, United Kingdom Aid, and other support initiatives carried out by NGOs such as The Hague Institute for Global Justice, The International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED), and others. Important cases from natural disaster episodes in Zanzibar were sourced via global news platforms such as the BBC and Al Jazeera, while certain secondary data on disaster loss was cited from the Relief web platform.

The review provided information of current responses to policy, legal and institutional setup on the key issues related to land use, climate and disaster risk reduction in Zanzibar. Thematic analysis was used to connect land-use planning, climate adaptation and disaster risk reduction documentation of the situational assessment, determination and respective recommendations concerning land use and climate adaptation.

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3. GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE AND URBAN PLANNING IN AFRICA

Global climate change constitutes perhaps the most urgent arena of development planning and environmental policy for Africa’s urban areas. Yet the knowledge bases and policy frameworks for dealing with climate change are often skewed. Addaney and Cobbinah (2019: 7) note that “Africa’s contribution to global climate change is comparably negligible [yet] it remains the most affected region”. Climate change is also under-researched in both rural and urban studies in Africa. The study by Addaney and Cobbinah (2019) is the first comprehensive survey for the region’s cities, and no such survey exists for rural Africa (see also Simon & Leck, 2014; Du Toit, Cilliers, Dallimer, Goddard, Guenat & Cornelius, 2018).

Moreover, African actors and agents have had less of a voice in developing and implementing global climate change adaptation and mitigation policy frameworks. Policies imposed on Africa from the global North often ‘undermine’ local actions to combat climate change, and instead “privileging international actors and financial markets” (Ernstson & Swyngedouw, 2019: 15; Silver, 2019: 133). There is a great diversity to impacts, outcomes and planning capacities on the continent. Addaney and Cobbinah’s (2019: 4) edited volume forges past the potentially debilitating realisation that such diversity might engender, while acknowledging that “adaptation to … climatic variations has become a daunting task for governments, city authorities and residents”. Their research showed the diversity within Ghana alone. Zanzibar manifests both the outsized reliance on global North actors and institutions common in Africa and the diversity across Tanzania, comparable to the Ghana case studied by Addaney and Cobbinah (2019: 4).

Addaney (2019: 482) noted that, in Africa, the urban vulnerabilities “are well-documented [but] less

attention has been paid to how the city government plans to adapt to climate change and enhance the resilience of the local population.” Urban Africans are not always hopelessly incapable of developing adaptation and resilience strategies. African governments and NGOs play important roles, for example, in the Sustainable Urban Development Network out of United Nations Habitat in Nairobi, which launched its Cities and Climate Change Initiative in 2008 (Myers, 2020: 173). This study contributes to building this understanding of the actions and capacities of local governments.

Water is one of the most complicated sources of risk in the context of global climate change in African environments, especially in cities. Half of all Africa’s cities with over 750,000 people are within 50 miles of the coast, and many others (including some of the region’s largest urban areas such as Kinshasa, Khartoum, and Brazzaville) are predominantly located in low-lying riverine settings (UN-Habitat, 2014: 45). Coastal cities or near-coastal cities are likewise also often on river mouths, estuaries, or deltas. UN-Habitat (2014: 45) considers 14 big cities (those with over one million people), six intermediate cities (500,000 to a million residents), and 37 small cities (100,000-500,000 people) in Africa to be at risk, due to rising sea levels. A great many cities in Africa face other significant flood risks, which are often most severe in poor, informal settlements. Even in cities at relatively high average elevations, poorer areas and informal settlements are typically at lower elevations in zones subject to seasonal flooding. Khartoum, Dar es Salaam, Mogadishu, Maputo, Dakar and many other major urban areas have experienced severe flooding over the past few years alone (Myers, 2016: 35; Kebede & Nicholls, 2011: 16-22; Aljazeeranews, 2019; Reliefweb, 2018). Vulnerabilities from climate change do not stop with sea-level risk and flooding. As a low-lying coastal city, Zanzibar has had very comparable experiences

to other cities on the continent examined in these other studies.

Zanzibar is selected for this study because it represents the uniqueness of a sub-national “semi-autonomous” island-state planning dilemma on climate adaptation and showcases the socio-economic complexities of coastal climate-related vulnerabilities facing the United Republic of Tanzania. The study area is thus an excellent setting for comparison with the regional trends discussed earlier. Many of the risks and challenges are exceedingly comparable.

4. PLANNING IN ZANZIBAR AND THE CLIMATE CHANGE CONTEXT

4.1 Climate change vulnerabilities in Zanzibar

Zanzibar, like many other coastal cities in the western Indian Ocean region, is experiencing higher than average physical growth and development rates. This is causing urban, economic, environmental and future development constraints, which increase coastal vulnerability (Celliers & Ntombela, 2015: 337). Land-use planning in Zanzibar has existed since 1923, but the first island-wide planning was achieved in 1995, with the formulation of the national land-use plan (Muhajir, 2020: 40). However, lack of effective coordination, low levels of enforcement and monitoring, and poor communications continue to remain as prevalent challenges (Revolutionary Government of Zanzibar, 2014: 2). This article highlights land planning-related issues of unplanned settlement, unsustainable development, and inadequate capacity for environmental management from a climate vulnerability perspective, in the context of the recently approved national spatial development strategy (Revolutionary Government of Zanzibar, 2014: 2).

As a small island state, Zanzibar has become increasingly more prone to climate risk, as well as vulnerable to natural disasters, including floods,


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droughts and tropical storms. Zanzibar is particularly vulnerable, because it has an extensive low-lying coastline, with the total land area of 2,654 square kilometres. The majority of the archipelago’s 1.8 million people live just under an average of 5 metres above sea-level (Muhajir, 2020: 45).

=Rising sea water levels, salt-water intrusion, land degradation, erratic rainfalls, and urban sprawl have imposed a huge burden on the socio-economic drivers and livelihoods of Zanzibar’s vulnerable communities, perhaps even more so than elsewhere on Tanzania’s coastline (Yanda, Bryceson, Mwevura & Mung’ong’o, 2019: 3-13). The recent record of direct damage to infrastructure, crops, and settlements has contributed to the increased deficits in terms of development goals. These damages

have also imposed new challenges on the development commitments intended to pull the population out of poverty and into the middle-income level of development.

4.2 Planning responses and adaptation

4.2.1 Climate adaptation studyThe Zanzibar Government developed its first climate adaptation study in 2010, under the bilateral Sustainable Management of Lands and Environment Support Program financed by Finland. This report, ‘Preparation of an Adaptation Program of Action for Zanzibar’, served as the local equivalent to the National Adaptation Program of Action Requirement of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The Report

identified the climate priorities that were of great concern to the local communities. These included extreme weather events; sea level rise and beach erosion; decreasing access to freshwater quality; saltwater intrusion; food insecurity; re-emergence of threats on human health; loss of forestry and biodiversity, and decreasing fisheries catch (Moller, 2010: 13).

The direct links between land-use planning and climate-induced impacts identified in the initial national adaptation study focused on coastal zone management, the tourism sector, groundwater conservation, sustainable practices in agriculture, and the protection of existing forest cover.

4.2.2 Merging science and policy for climate adaptation

However, addressing these measures required a systematic climate change response and adaptation strategy. Without cross-sectoral mobilization of the socio-economic pillars of growth and development, it would always be difficult for the islands to cope with the widening scope of impacts of climate change that had already begun to affect its strategic development planning. The 2012 study on Economic impacts of climate change in Zanzibar, or EICC (Watkiss, Pye, Hendriksen, MacLean, Bonjean, Jiddawi, Shaghude, Sheikh & Khamis, 2012: 1) revealed extreme climate variability projections for the next 50 years from 2012 to 2062, with continued patterns of erratic rainfall, rising temperatures, rough sea waves, and strong winds. Since a large proportion of Zanzibar’s GDP was associated with climate-sensitive activities, people’s livelihoods (the majority of which include agriculture, fishing, or tourism) were greatly dependent on these changing weather and climate dynamics that exacerbated patterns such as floods, droughts, and storms (Revolutionary Government of Zanzibar, 2012: 1).

The EICC study identified key sectoral priorities to be integrated into the development paradigm.

Rising sea water levels, salt-water intrusion, land degradation, erratic rainfalls, and urban sprawl have imposed a huge burden on the socio-economic drivers and livelihoods of Zanzibar’s vulnerable communities, perhaps even more so than elsewhere on Tanzania’s coastline (Yanda, Bryceson, Mwevura & Mung’ong’o, 2019: 3-13). The recent record of direct damage to infrastructure, crops, and settlements has contributed to the increased deficits in terms of development goals. These damages have also imposed new challenges on the development commitments intended to pull the population out of poverty and into the middle-income level of development. Figure 1: The main island of Zanzibar. The spots indicate areas that are currently directly affected by the impacts of climate change

Figure 1: The main island of Zanzibar. The spots indicate areas that are currently directly affected by the impacts of climate change

Source: Zanzibar, Department of Environment, 2019: 7

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Figure 3: Map of the Town of Zanzibar. The red colorations indicate areas and wards in the city at risk of flood hazards, due to impacts of climate change Source: Badui, 2020 4.2 Planning responses and adaptation 4.2.1 Climate adaptation study The Zanzibar Government developed its first climate adaptation study in 2010, under the bilateral Sustainable Management of Lands and Environment Support Program financed by Finland. This report, ‘Preparation of an Adaptation Program of Action for Zanzibar’, served as the local equivalent to the National Adaptation Program of Action Requirement of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The Report identified the climate priorities that were of great concern to the local communities. These included extreme weather events; sea level rise and beach erosion; decreasing access to freshwater quality; saltwater intrusion; food insecurity; re-emergence of threats on human health; loss of forestry and biodiversity, and decreasing fisheries catch (Moller, 2010: 13). The direct links between land-use planning and climate-induced impacts identified in the initial national adaptation study focused on coastal zone management, the tourism sector, groundwater conservation, sustainable practices in agriculture, and the protection of existing forest cover. 4.2.2 Merging science and policy for climate adaptation

Figure 3: Map of the Town of Zanzibar. The red colorations indicate areas and wards in the city at risk of flood hazards, due to impacts of climate change

Source: Badui, 2020

These priorities, as ranked by local participants, included sustainable land-management issues, such as tackling coastal erosion; addressing the widening problem of saltwater intrusion and inundation of lowland agricultural fields; reducing impacts of urban flooding; curbing rampant deforestation and land degradation; preserving Zanzibar’s tourism “attractiveness” assets such as the heritage of its historic Stone Town and its constituent infrastructure; protecting coral sands and beaches, and addressing biomass energy challenges (Watkiss et al., 2012: 1).

4.3 Development of a Zanzibar climate change adaptation strategy and action plan

The Zanzibar climate change strategy of 2014 set up five key sectoral priorities for the Government of Zanzibar to be integrated into its poverty reduction and economic growth development strategy (Revolutionary Government of Zanzibar, 2013a: 2). These sustainable land-use planning priorities focus on natural disaster risk reduction and resilient urban settlements; climate smart agriculture; natural resources management; low-carbon tourism; sustainable forests and energy, as well as resilient coastal zone and adjacent marine ecosystems management approaches. The Zanzibar climate change action plan called for the immediate need to identify priority sites affected by climate change, and these largely related to land areas affected by salinization and flood risk (Revolutionary Government of Zanzibar, 2016: 2).

4.4 Strategic implementation of major adaptation initiatives

In Zanzibar, climate-smart agricultural programmes have been mobilized. Reconstruction and strengthening of dykes were prioritized. Mangrove reforestation is being carried out under multiple support from regional and global facilities. Rainwater-harvesting programmes through the construction of check dams under the Zanzibar Irrigation Masterplan

Source: Zanzibar, Department of Environment, 2019: 7

Figure 2: The map of the sister island of Pemba showing sites affected by the impacts of climate change Source: Department of Environment, Zanzibar, 2019: 7

Figure 2: The map of the sister island of Pemba showing sites affected by the impacts of climate change

Source: Department of Environment, Zanzibar, 2019: 7


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are being implemented under a partnership with the Korea Overseas International Cooperation Agency. An expanded borehole control and monitoring programme emerged as another proposed regulatory action in addressing land-based climate issues in Zanzibar. Other popular climate adaptation initiatives included construction of seawalls and groynes at Kilimani locality in Zanzibar Town (and at Kisiwa Panza islet off Pemba); dissemination of environmental, climate education, and awareness programmes to local communities; selection of ecosystem-based management options; introduction of smart technologies; promotion of alternative livelihoods; building institutional capacity in climate financing, and enforcement of coastal setback buffer zones to slow down vulnerabilities and prolong resilience for the archipelago (UNEP & GEF, 2015: 2).

Moreover, as Tanzania is updating its intended Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to a more graduated pace within the Paris Agreement on climate change, key land-related focal areas that have been identified in the proposed NDC implementation plan for the country include adopting climate-smart land-use planning and management systems, human settlements, agriculture, water, tourism, protected areas, and waste management (United Republic of Tanzania, 2016: 1). In the Zanzibar context, these NDC measures form the bulk of the archipelago’s development planning priorities that recognize the impacts of climate change on its vulnerable population.

4.5 Challenges of climate financing and global outreach

Despite these measures, Zanzibar’s responses to climate impacts were already exacerbated by lack of institutional arrangements and planning systems, inadequate finance allocations on adaptation measures, and lack of specific economic and finance planning systems targeted at climate change. According to the

International Institute for Environment and Development, the country’s capacity to absorb climate finance per year was less than US$500,000, while adaptation demand exceeded US$2 million each year (Vuai, 2014: 1). The 2017 natural catastrophic risk profile assessment by the World Bank’s Southwest Indian Ocean Risk Assessment and Financing Initiative (World Bank, 2016a: 2) puts Zanzibar’s potential catastrophic losses from natural disasters (including floods and cyclonic weather events) at US$2.2 million each year, with an annual emergency cost of US$500,000. The urban residential sector experiences nearly 87% of the combined losses, while the commercial sector absorbs nearly 11% (World Bank, 2017: 1).

4.6 Prioritizing climate-related policy interventions

What does the existing policy context entail in addressing climate adaptation in Zanzibar? The Zanzibar Vision 2020 government plan recognized the role of the environment, biodiversity and forestry in the promotion of sustainable development, decrease in forest cover, and rapid and unplanned land-use conversion into other non-forest activities such as agriculture, urbanization, and quarrying (Revolutionary Government of Zanzibar, 2000: 1). Forest resources in the coral rag areas, agroforestry systems and mangroves have decreased significantly. The major causes are population increase and the demand for economic development, exacerbated by the fast-growing tourism industry (Kingazi, 2013). Moreover, the Zanzibar Poverty Reduction and Growth Strategy recognizes that attaining environmental sustainability and climate resilience is one of the five principal pillars towards achieving social and economic prosperity and reaching middle-income status.

The MKUZA Strategy (Revolutionary Government of Zanzibar, 2015: 2) underscores the need for a gender-responsive climate adaptation plan that targets the resilience of

all socio-economic safeguards, in line with the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. However, its implementation plan is extremely dependent on the international climate finance mechanisms and on donor support. Moreover, were Zanzibar to actually achieve middle-income status, numerous international funding opportunities for climate mitigation would disappear, since they are set aside for low-income countries.

4.7 Integrating climate, land use and sustainability

The last decade from 2010 to 2020 has witnessed a substantive rise in planning endeavours and environmental policy development for the islands, and notably for urban Zanzibar. Between 2013 and 2020 alone, the government of Zanzibar created the first master plan for the city in 33 years (DOURP, 2015: 1), a national spatial development strategy (Revolutionary Government of Zanzibar, 2014: 2) that included 10 focused ‘local area plans’ (e.g., DOURP, 2016), a new national environmental policy (2013), a new land policy (2017: 2), the new Zanzibar Environmental Management Authority (2015), and the US$193 million World Bank-funded Zanzibar Urban Services Project (ZUSP) (World Bank, 2016b). There have been real and tangible impacts from many of these new plans and institutions. ZUSP, for example, produced almost 20kms of a drainage network in poorer outlying neighbourhoods that has the prospect of reducing the susceptibility of these areas to water-borne diseases such as cholera, and diseases exacerbated by standing water such as malaria. The banning of plastic bags under the new environmental policy has made the city and coastline visibly cleaner, while raising the environmental consciousness of ordinary residents.

However, implementation and enforcement mechanisms lag behind the impressive record on paper. The government’s new land policy attests that climate change, rapid population

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growth, and urbanization as experienced in Zanzibar will exhaust the carrying capacity of the already over-exploited land and impose unbearable pressure on existing ecosystems and environmental services. The policy cautions that the urban areas of Zanzibar are forecast to be comprised of 60% (or 1.25 million people) of the total population projection of nearly 2.2 million by 2035 – mainly in Zanzibar Urban-West Region, and in Chake Chake and Wete towns on Pemba island (Muhajir, 2020: 64).

This climate-land nexus scenario is expected to overwhelm the carrying capacity of the fragile archipelagic environment, its settlements, and its agricultural land. This will impose further pressure on the limited government resources for managing or enhancing accessibility to affordable urban housing, sustainable infrastructure, public transport, or utility services (Revolutionary Government of Zanzibar, 2017: 2). The land policy, therefore, calls for an immediate cross-sectoral and integrated approach, or a new mechanism in achieving resilience in land-use planning through climate adaptation, disaster risk reduction, and implementation of sustainable development goals (Muhajir, 2020: 75).

4.8 Is climate-land scenario planning the answer?

A practical example of how the integration of land-use planning and climate adaptation can be achieved in urban settlements of Zanzibar can be referenced from The Hague Institute’s pilot study in three smaller urbanized localities – Mjini Kiuyu (Pemba), Mkokotoni (Unguja), and Nungwi (Unguja) – between 2015 and 2017 (The Hague Institute, 2017: 33). The program’s overall objective was to develop a Zanzibar-centric model of a participatory and community-oriented local adaptation plan of action for urbanized localities in the implementation of Zanzibar’s climate strategy (The Hague Institute, 2017: 33). The three localities were selected because of their

diverse climate impact challenges related to land, freshwater, rise in sea level, agriculture, livestock, and other issues. The local action plans for these urbanized localities were meant to contribute to sustainable economic development, climate change adaptation, and disaster risk reduction for these townships by developing effective institutional, sectoral and spatial governance arrangements in a participatory process.

The Pilot Study helped generate mutual trust and the development of consensus-based solutions. It also assisted policymakers in identifying relevant good practices among the persons and organizations involved in climate change issues in those localities. Over a period of two years, the formulation of the 23 recommended adaptation measures and a road map to their implementation were successfully completed (The Hague Institute, 2017: 33). The plans were effectively established while taking into consideration the priorities of these localities, including attempts to strengthen institutional capacity for planning and implementation; inter-sectoral collaboration and synergies, and community capacity for planning and implementation. However, significant challenges in both land-use planning and the decision-making hierarchy for addressing climate adaptation actions have emerged. Although the study provided the Government of Zanzibar with concrete building blocks that would support the implementation of the Zanzibar climate change strategy, its full-scale implementation has not yet been carried out and will depend on how these solutions are integrated into the current spatial development strategy.

4.9 Managing climate vulnerabilities, natural disasters and land-use planning

The Zanzibar National Spatial Development Strategy (NSPDS) was formulated to replace the national land-use plan of 1995, which had not

been successfully implemented. The current strategy marks a departure from the traditional proactive “spatial planning” per se and instead focuses on strategic planning dialogue, in order to address key strategic measures to offset the socio-economic and environmental impacts associated with land-use planning and degradation. The Government faces the huge and seemingly insurmountable challenge of having to cope with an increasing proportion of unplanned settlements. It is now estimated that at least 60% of housing construction projects in urban areas of Zanzibar have been done without formal permit clearance (Muhajir, 2020: 65). In this scenario, where many of these structures are located within designated monsoon-season flood zones of the urban areas, the vulnerabilities to potential threats from natural disasters increase haphazardly and astronomically (Revolutionary Government of Zanzibar, 2014: 2).

Another serious challenge emanates from the fact that Zanzibar’s disaster risk reduction governance framework faces both policy coordination and capacity impediments. While the disaster management policy and communication strategy recognizes the urgent need to address risks related to extreme weather events, changing sea level, and coastal pressure dynamics, the absence of practical linkages between disaster management, land-use planning, and climate adaptation safeguards has affected preventive response measures against climate impacts. As a consequence, not enough concrete cross-sectoral steps have been taken at the policy and planning level to collectively prevent or mitigate the existing fallout of the recent urban floods in Zanzibar Town (Revolutionary Government of Zanzibar, 2013b; Pardoe, Conway, Namaganda, Vincent, Dougill & Kashaigili, 2018: 865-870; BBC, 2017).

Thompson (2020: 191) argues that the following constitute significant challenges to mainstream climate strategy across the board in Zanzibar:


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(1) insufficient funding levels towards climate adaptation that are heavily dependent on donor support; (2) a presence of little systematic mainstreaming of climate action plans at strategic or programmatic levels across the development sectors; (3) a disconnect that continues to exist between national and local government adaptation priorities, hindering the implementation of climate action plans, and (4) limited climate change knowledge and low-level institutional capacities. These prevalent challenges underscore the fundamental need for the Government to employ cross-sectoral policy and structural interventions to collectively address land-use planning, climate adaptation, and natural disaster risk reduction measures.

4.10 Linking climate, land use and urban flooding

The recent World Bank-financed disaster risk profile for Zanzibar focused on three perils: tropical cyclones, floods, and earthquakes (World Bank, 2016a: 1). However, there is an evidence-based agreement that flooding is by far the most significant risk in the study, causing nearly 90 of the average loss per year. A 100-year return period flood event would produce direct losses of US$13 million and require approximately US$2.9 million in emergency costs (World Bank, 2016a: 1). Unguja (Zanzibar) island has slightly higher absolute flood losses than Pemba island.

Recent episodes have underscored the urgent importance of enhancing the resilience of Zanzibar City against increasing episodes of extreme weather events induced by climate change. From 15 to 17 April 2005, the flooding episode caused by incessant rains directly affected 10,000 people in the urban areas and resulted in significant loss to the municipal infrastructure.

The 2005 floods along with the 2011 monsoon in Zanzibar were considered rare events (Myers, 2016: 102). However, recently, the frequency of monsoon flood events

in Zanzibar has increased, with a deadly intensity. In April 2016, the rains that were induced by the remnants of a dissipated regional cyclone Fantala resulted in at least one person dead and many displaced after their houses were flooded following heavy rains. At least 300 households within the Zanzibar municipality were damaged (Juma, 2016: 1). Kombo and Faki (2019: 1) later revised the damage assessment of the Fantala episode, stating that the thermodynamic conditions of Fantala influenced heavy rainfall of greater than 170mm over most stations in Zanzibar, rendering 420 people homeless, with at least 3,330 houses destroyed, and 2 fatalities.

In May 2017, the Government had to temporarily close schools, due to the onset of deadly monsoon floods, affecting over 350,000 students throughout the island. Similarly, the intense monsoon rains of 12-18 April 2018 resulted in 191 households being displaced and 225 houses damaged. As a result, the majority of flood victims sought refuge with relatives and neighbours, while 19 households did not relocate and continued to haphazardly live in their flooded houses. These intense monsoon episodes continued through 2019, when Zanzibar airport recorded 328mm of rain in just three days.

5. DISCUSSION

5.1 Resilience and food securityFundamentally, “resilience” is the persistence of healthy individuals, communities and environments to exogenous shock (Folke, 2006). The ability to make incremental social and socio-ecological adjustments increases the capacity to absorb shocks, including those linked to climate (Friend & Moench, 2013; Tanner, Lewis, Wrathall, Bronen, Cradock-Henry, Huq, Lawless, Nawrotzki, Prasad, Rahman, Alaniz, King, McNamara, Nadiruzzaman, Henly-Shepard & Thomalla, 2015: 23-25). Exogenous shock may impact on ecosystem functions and services, public health, and livelihood sustainability, especially

in vulnerable and sensitive settings and communities (Hernandez-Delgado, 2015: 12-15).

Inevitably, there is a complex mix of changes in political, economic and social terms, too vast for inclusion in this article, that would be essential to a more extensive analysis of climate change impacts and other environmental compounding factors now prevalent in Zanzibar and the wider Southeast Africa (Douglass, Walz, Quintana-Morales, Marcus, Myers & Pollini, 2019: 262-271; Pardoe et al., 2018: 869-871). Even remaining strictly within the climate change policy framework and assessment of implementation, while Zanzibar has had remarkable productivity in the formation of new plans and institutions for urban and environmental management and planning for climate change, the evidence demonstrated by the impacts of climate change specifically on urban flooding suggests that these have not been sufficient.

The net effect is that Zanzibar must be viewed as ill-prepared to confront the climate emergency that is already happening, let alone the greater climate vulnerability crises to come. The city-scale resilience of Zanzibar City is enmeshed with its outer landscape and the rural communities and resources of Unguja (Myers, 2016: 98; Muhajir, 2020: 75). Thus, climate change impacts that influence the city’s social, economic, and environmental outcomes have reverberating consequences throughout the island, and vice versa.

It is important, then, to also consider how climate change degrades and damages farmland, forests, coastlines, and the marine ecosystems that directly interface with Zanzibar City and Unguja. The coastal niches of significance are mangrove forests, seagrass beds, and fringing coral reefs, all critical for ecosystem function and sustainable livelihoods, and as carbon reservoirs. For instance, coral reefs bleached by increased sea surface temperatures reduce nearshore fish catches (and negatively impact on the livelihoods of fisher people) and

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expose coastlines to destructive wave action. Fish are an essential food protein in Zanzibar, and they also meet the needs of hotels and restaurants in the city’s tourist sector.

5.2 The role of large-scale and NGO financing in mainstreaming climate adaptation

Large-scale donor-funded climate adaptation interventions provide a critical level of impact alleviation approach and a strategic guidance for climate resiliency in both urban and rural settings relevant to Zanzibar. But these interventions are largely top-down in orientation, and do not sufficiently integrate community participation, experiences and solutions into overall approaches, a typical challenge. Smaller NGOs in both urban and rural Zanzibar usually have the potential to be closer to the communities and, therefore, more practical in understanding and addressing community-oriented priorities in climate adaptation and sustainable livelihoods. However, these NGOs’ abilities to receive, digest, adopt, communicate, mainstream, and implement plans do not necessarily mean that their desired interventions are often inculcated in the wider nationally recognized response measures.

Nonetheless, there are some positive developments or examples in this regard, for instance the collaboration between the International Institute for Environment and Development and the Zanzibar Climate Change Alliance to support climate resilient cooperative-led enterprises in the archipelago (IIED, 2018). The project emphasizes capacity-building, including for civil society organizations, and decentralized climate finance projects. Although two years in duration, its initiatives on deep-water seaweed farming, citrus farming (especially limes), and honey production integrated local needs and experiences with in-country financing that boosted local livelihoods and rural products for markets in Zanzibar City.

5.3 The future of disaster risk, climate and planning for Zanzibar

A lack of evidence-based policy guidance on loss and risk information with respect to climate-induced natural hazards will likely affect the data-driven demand for urban spatial planning. A recent study on loss and risk analysis of public finance shows a complete absence of investments in disaster loss and risk prevention or of taking contingency measures into budgetary and financial consideration (UNISDR, 2015: 32). Critical infrastructure remains fully exposed and increasingly vulnerable to climate impact. Without sufficiently protected safeguards against disaster risk or contingency financing mechanisms on critical infrastructure and settlements, the local communities will continue to bear the brunt of the impacts of climate change.

Pilot risk probabilistic assessments using Des Inventar and CAPRA tools have been demonstrated to respond to spatial and descriptive data needs for integrated land-use planning; their long-term sustainability has been put under question, due to lack of national prioritization and budgetary finance commitments (SDG Partnership Platform, 2014). Another encouraging example is the use of drones for spatial mapping to develop efficient and updated GIS data on land-use planning in Zanzibar. These interventions show the pace of progress in addressing environment-climate-land dynamics in Zanzibar, but they fall far short of complete adoption by the relevant sectors and are not mainstreamed into development processes (ZMI, 2016).

5.4 Can the current interventions save the vulnerable tourism economy of Zanzibar?

The implications and consequences of the rapid physical growth of the tourism industry in Zanzibar are contentious areas of interest that require an in-depth analysis in the context of a climate-land interface. By 2018, Zanzibar had received over 520,000 international tourists, in addition to the growing tourist

clientele from mainland Tanzania. This raised the islands’ prospects of becoming highly competitive with the likes of Seychelles and Mauritius, both of which also face climate change impacts, in regional tourism dynamics (UNECA, 2014: 3). With the infrastructure to accommodate such a growing demand increasingly overwhelmed, the World Bank’s “Green Corridor” initiative in the middle of the Zanzibar municipality is helping the Government cope with the urban spatial planning dilemma. It is injecting funds into local urban regeneration initiatives, mobility improvements, reducing congestion, and preserving historical monuments in Stone Town (World Bank, 2018: 3). The success of this initiative, implemented under the ZUSP project, will depend on how the climate-land interface has been effectively taken into consideration. There must be an effective establishment of dedicated financing solutions that do not in the long term rely solely on donor support. Many other environmental impacts from the rapid growth of tourism have thus far gone on without sufficient implementation of mitigation efforts (Myers, 2016: 102; Keshodkar, 2013: 193-206).

6. CONCLUSIONZanzibar already has a considerable disparity between rural and urban socio-economic conditions that exacerbate climate vulnerabilities. With population growth increasing and unequal socio-economic activities widening, both climate-related and anthropogenic drivers of land exploitation and degradation, urbanization, deforestation, poor agricultural production, and water scarcity have been proven to have a direct bearing on the policy implementation context of climate adaptation and socio-economic justice (Kingazi, 2013). The land tenure system, along with the latest spatial planning strategy, will have to recalculate the socio-economic cost of climate change. The fact that this is not yet being prioritized in the spatial planning hierarchy risks increasing social inequities


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and exacerbating already tense land disputes between communities and major industries such as tourism.

The World Bank-financed ZUSP initiative to improve access to urban services and conserve physical cultural heritage through a series of development interventions in integrated waste management, surface drainage systems, and rehabilitation of some urban and waterfront infrastructure, has significantly transformed the surface drainage and waterfront façade of the Zanzibar municipality (World Bank, 2016b). However, there are still some long-term climate-disaster implications that continue to affect the overall sustainability of the existing climate-land planning dynamics in Zanzibar. Without the practical implementation of the current national spatial development strategy that integrated environment, climate and disaster risk reduction priorities, Zanzibar will continue to bear the brunt of the increasing impacts of climate change.

Direct impacts of climate change such as seasonal displacement of local communities from flood-prone urban areas will continue to affect land-use planners in the archipelago. This will also exacerbate secondary impacts on the effective implementation of policy-oriented conflict resolution mechanism vis-à-vis land disputes (Revolutionary Government of Zanzibar, 2009). Nevertheless, the existing rate of migration of a predominantly tourism-related labour force from the mainland to Zanzibar will continue to induce the haphazard growth of informal settlements in the major and peripheral urban settings of the islands (Muhajir, 2020: 75). These will, in turn, exert more physical pressure on the coastal zone and accelerate the negative exploitation of the fragile coralline environment that forms the core basis of the tourism attraction index for the country.

There is also the issue of international climate finance flow into the United Republic of Tanzania and how Zanzibar can effectively access and utilize the funds for its

local integrated planning priorities in the face of climate-induced GDP losses. In this context of Tanzania, there is always a risk of structurally separating Zanzibar’s climate finance needs based on its size, and not on its climate vulnerabilities as a small island developing country. Priorities for a strategic funding versus reactive funding (Watkiss, Dyszynski, Hednriksen, Mathur & Savage, 2013: 2) compel Zanzibar to maximize its climate finance needs via the United Republic of Tanzania, given its only semi-autonomous status as part of the Union. This is extremely important, as all these policy and planning intervention measures will require sustainable pooling of resources to implement Zanzibar’s development plan. Currently, these cannot be achieved without the direct involvement of the Government of the United Republic.

In order to effectively address issues of vulnerabilities affecting the socio-economic stability and climate security of the islands’ 1.8 million people, the challenge of misallocation of limited land resources should be addressed by utilizing a dynamic and horizontal urban spatial development strategy approach in decision-making. Participatory involvement of local communities will help augment the desired development results, by enhancing their sense of ownership of land-related development plans. It is about time that the conventional allocation of land for housing, roads, tourism resorts, and settlements was revised in favour of a more efficient and climate-smart strategy that does not marginalize the economically disadvantaged. An integrated strategic, social, environmental, and climate assessment of major development infrastructure plans should be made mandatory to all socio-economic and industrial sectors.

Despite the increase in availability of area-based planning and management tools that have been provided under various external interventions, the current dynamism of a land-use governance approach within the country will eventually

affect the strategic direction of any new climate-sensitive development vision. For a small island developing state such as Zanzibar, land and population will continue to be the single most important driving forces in sustainable development planning. This will in effect directly enhance the intensity of climate dialogue into the political sensitivities of the Government (e.g., in sustainable development, climate change, disaster risk reduction, and so forth). Ultimately, the desired level of resilience can only be achieved alongside the need for optimized climate adaptation solutions that include an equitable land-tenure system, and community ownership of the solutions.

This article therefore suggests the following key policy recommendations on the basis of the above observations:

i. Challenge: Fragmented approach to the human-climate change interface with insufficient planning and implementation.

ii. Recommendation: Realization of an overarching integrated development planning authority that combines the environment, climate and sustainability nexus into development, land-use planning, and human settlement paradigms. Without the reconstituted mandate of a proactive planning commission that is empowered to directly engage in climate-smart bio-physical and spatial planning decisions on land use, environment and industrial sectors on the ground, the adaptation efforts may fall far short of the targeted long-term goals of sustainability.

iii. Challenge: Artificial dichotomy of land and sea and their link to human livelihood threats and resilience.

iv. Recommendation: Recognition of the urgency of a development vision that is centred around the land-sea interaction and ecological connectivity that has defined the cultural

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settings and the livelihoods of local communities. It is thus imperative that the policy drivers stress the need to re-integrate policy, planning, institutional, and implementation aspects of their socio-economic priorities around sustainable land-use planning, disaster risk, and climate adaptation interface on the islands.

v. Challenge: Underdeveloped treatment of disaster risk and collaboration for sustainable financing.

vi. Recommendation: Enhance disaster risk reduction and climate change policy openings that provide Zanzibar with long-term and sustainable financing mechanisms and opportunities based on their existing natural resource base that extends from the land into the marine domain. This includes widening the ability to access long-term climate finance resources via the Government of the United Republic of Tanzania, mainstream nature finance solutions via biodiversity-related financing mechanisms, and preservation of the ocean to sustain the land resources.

vii. Challenge: Overly specific urban and climate change planning scenario.

viii. Recommendation: Effective collaboration with other island planning regimes in the western Indian Ocean region such as those in Mauritius and Seychelles may help Zanzibar attain a comparative and transformative planning scenario that is centred around the Climate Change, Disaster Risk and Sustainable Development Goals resilience triangle.

ix. Challenge: Relatively hierarchical and static research model.

x. Recommendation: Revamp Zanzibar’s research agenda for the archipelago. Embrace an evidence-based planning approach that is horizontal, data driven, dynamic, and

flexible, which will better address rapid changes in Zanzibar’s socio-environmental sphere.

These key interventions will depend on the level of engagement of local communities, taking into consideration their participatory strength, equity, social and environmental justice towards their land heritage.

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How to cite: Kasim, O., Agbola, S. & Oweniwe, M. 2020. Land use land cover change and land surface emissivity in Ibadan, Nigeria. Town and Regional Planning, no.77, pp. 71-88.

Dr Oluwasinaayomi (O.F.) Kasim, Lecturer, Department of Urban and Regional Planning, University of Ibadan, Nigeria. Phone: +234 8055607009, email: <[email protected]>, ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5985-1534Prof. Samuel (S.B.) Agbola, Chair: Human Settlement Unit, Mangosuthu University of Technology, Durban, South Africa. Phone: +27 0632291570, email: <[email protected]>, ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8128-5746.Mr Michael (M.F.) Oweniwe, Graduate student, Department of Urban and Regional Planning, University of Ibadan, Nigeria. Phone: +234 80649599515, email: <[email protected]>

Land use land cover change and land surface emissivity in Ibadan, Nigeria

Oluwasinaayomi Kasim, Samuel Agbola & Michael Oweniwe


Peer reviewed and revised November 2020



AbstractThere are many drivers of climate change. The urbanization process has been adjudged to be one of the major factors influencing spatial variation in land use and land cover change (LULC), land surface temperature (LST), land surface emissivity (LSE), increasing greenhouse gases emission, and climate change. This article uses a multispectral satellite remote sensing and survey-based approach to examine the nexus of LULC and LSE in the Ibadan city region, Nigeria. The spectral reflectance, the sun angle spectral radiance of the Landsat imageries (2000, 2010, 2018) was corrected and converted from digital number. The LULC, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Normalized Difference Built-Up Index (NDBI), LSE and LST were obtained from the analysis of Landsat imageries. From the findings, temperature increase was identified as a peculiar environmental issue. Analysis of the Landsat imageries revealed that the NDVI value increased from 0.44 in 2000 to 0.47 in 2018. The NDBI values showed that built-up areas in the core of the urban areas have the highest NDBI values (0.023-0.602). The spatio-temporal trends of LST were related to the changes in LULC, and the built-up area had the highest LSE. The maximum LST (43°C) was observed in the year 2018 at the core area of the city where building density was highest. The study suggests an application of cool pavements, green development, and urban forest regeneration for sustainable development.Keywords: Land use, surface emissivity, urban expansion, urban resilience, Ibadan

VERANDERING VAN GRONDBEDEKKINGS EN EMISSIWITEIT VAN GRONDOPPERVLAKTE IN IBADAN, NIGERIËDaar is baie drywers van klimaatsverandering. Die verstedelikingsproses word beskou as een van die belangrikste faktore wat die ruimtelike variasie in grondgebruik en landbedekkingsverandering (LULC), landoppervlaktemperatuur (LST), landoppervlakte-emissie (LSE), toenemende emissie van kweekhuisgasse en klimaatsverandering beïnvloed. Hierdie artikel maak gebruik van ’n multispektrale satellietafstandwaarneming en opmetingsgebaseerde benadering om die verband tussen LULC en LSE in die Ibadan-streek, Nigerië, te ondersoek. Die spektrale weerkaatsing, die sonhoekspektrale uitstraling van die Landsat-beelde (2000, 2010,

2018) is reggestel en omgeskakel van digitale nommer. Die LULC, Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Normalised Difference Built-Up Index (NDBI), LSE en LST is verkry uit die analise van Landsat-beelde. Uit die bevindings is die toename van die temperatuur geïdentifiseer as ’n eienaardige omgewingskwessie. Analise van die Landsat-beelde het aan die lig gebring dat die NDVI-waarde van 0.44 in 2000 tot 0.47 in 2018 toegeneem het. Die NDBI-waardes het getoon dat beboude gebiede in die kern van die stedelike gebiede die hoogste NDBI-waardes het (0.023-0.602). Die ruimtelike-tydelike neigings van LST hou verband met die veranderinge in LULC, en die beboude gebied het die hoogste LSE gehad. Die maksimum LST (43°C) is in 2018 waargeneem in die kerngebied van die stad waar die geboue se digtheid die hoogste was. Die studie dui op die toepassing van koel sypaadjies, groen ontwikkeling en stedelike bosvernuwing vir volhoubare ontwikkeling.Sleutelwoorde: Grondgebruik, emissi-witeit op die oppervlak, stedelike uitbreiding, stedelike veerkragtigheid, Ibadan

PHETOHO EA TŠEBELISO LE KOAHELO EA MOBU ‘MOHO LE BOKAHOLIMO BA LEFATS’E TOROPONG EA IBADAN, NIGERIAHo na le lisosa tse ngata ba phetoho ea maemo a leholimo. Phallo e phahameng ea batho ho ea litoropong e nkuoe e le e ‘ngoe ea lisosa tse kaholimolimo tse susumetsang phapano ea phetoho ts’ebelisong le koahelong ea mobu (LULC), mocheso ea lefatše (LST), mesi e kotsi ho lefats’e (LSE), ‘me qetellong e eketsa ho tsoa ha likhase le phetoho ea maemo a leholimo. Sengoliloeng sena se sebelisa mokhoa oa kutlo e hole le oa liphuputso tsa boithuto ho lekola khokahanyo pakeng tsa LULC le LSE tikolohong ea toropo ea Ibadan, Nigeria. Ponahalo, khanya ea letsatsi ea litšoantšo tsa Landsat (2000, 2010, 2018) e ile ea lokisoa mme ea fetoloa ho tloha ho nomoro ea ‘digital’. LULC, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Normalised

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Difference Built-Up Index (NDBI), LSE le LST li fumanoe ho tsoa tlhahlobisong ea litšoantšo tsa Landsat. Ho latela liphuputso, keketseho ea mocheso e ile ea khetholloa e le bothata bo ikhethang ba tikoloho. Tlhatlhobo ea litšoantšo tsa Landsat e senotse hore boleng ba NDVI bo eketsehile ho tloha ho 0,44 ka 2000 ho isa ho 0,47 ka 2018. Litekanyetso tsa NDBI li bonts’itse hore libaka tse hahiloeng bohareng ba libaka tsa litoropo li na le litekanyetso tse phahameng ka ho fetisisa tsa NDBI (0.023-0.602). Mekhoa ea sebaka sa nakoana ea LST e ne e amana le liphetoho tse iponahalitseng ho LULC, mme libaka tse hahiloeng li na le LSE e phahameng ka ho fetisisa. LST (43° C) e phahameng ka hofetisisa e bonoe ka selemo sa 2018 sebakeng sa mantlha sa toropo moo bongata ba meaho bo neng bo le holimo ka ho fetesisa. Phuputso e khothaletsa ts’ebeliso ea litsela tsa maoto tse pholisitsoeng, nts’etsopele ea botala le temo-bocha ea meru ea litoropo bakeng sa nts’etsopele e tsitsitseng.

1. INTRODUCTIONOne of the resultant effects of urban expansion and land use/land cover change (LULC), the dominant factors in regional landscape modification, is global warming (Agbola, Kasim & Coker, 2014: 46; Abegunde & Oluwatola, 2015: 230-231). City growth influences the micro-climate (Quattrochi, Jedlovec & Meyer, 2012: online). Rapid urbanization and expansion of human settlements play important roles in global LULC by modifying the ecological processes that influence the manifestation of climate change at local, regional and global scales (Oladele & Oladimeji, 2011: 635; Kasim, Abshare & Agbola, 2018: 807-808).The warming of the climate system is now unequivocal and, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2007), the increase in global temperature observed from the mid-20th century is attributable to anthropogenic activities, which include increased rate of fossil fuel burning and LULCs. Estimates for the 21st century indicate an average increase in global temperature ranging from 1.8°C to 4°C. The projection has implications on city liveability, especially in countries with low

capacity to cope with perturbations, thereby compromising the already stressed resilience components (Kasim, Wahab & Olayide, 2020).

Cities can only be sustainable if the life support ecosystems on which they depend are resilient (Kasim, 2018: 958). However, observations and analysis of global meteorological data by the IPCC (2007) show that the earth’s surface has warmed significantly in the last century. Although several drivers of climate change have been identified, human activities have significantly contributed to elevated greenhouse gases (GHG) emission. The GHG trap heat in the atmosphere and alter the energy dynamics and balance of the climate system (IPCC, 2007; Ramanathan & Carmichael, 2008: 223; Ramanathan & Feng, 2009: 48-49; Kasim et al., 2018: 806). A range of human activities, including deforestation to accommodate urban expansion, have led to an alteration of the energy balance. These alterations are more profound in cities and have found expression in spatial variation in the land surface temperature (LST), land surface emissivity (LSE) and climate change (Morabito, Crisci, Messeri, Orlandini, Raschi, Maracchi & Munafo, 2016: 321-322). The phenomenon termed LSE is conceptualized as the average emission of heat from an element influenced by multiple factors such as impervious surfaces, LULC, surface roughness, and the physical planning characteristics of a settlement (Aakriti & Ram, 2014: 120-121; Wahab & Agbola, 2017: 213; Wahab & Popoola, 2019: 172).

Ibadan city, one of the fastest growing urban centres in Nigeria, in terms of population and urban expansion, has evolved without a discernible growth or physical development pattern. It has been documented that the city expanded from roughly 100 ha in 1830 to 12km² in 1931, 112km² in 1973, 214km² in 1988, 243km² in 2000 and the present urban sprawl is close to 300km² (Fabiyi, 2006: 63; Agbola, 2013: 16; Agbola et al., 2014: 43-45). The observed development without proactive physical planning

intervention creates an avenue for illegal development, LULC and LST. For example, the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET) (2018) predicts an increase in temperature, especially in Nigerian cities. As noted by Jin and Liang (2006: 2867-2868), temperature is an aftermath of LSE, which is the ratio of energy emitted from the sun in relation to the earth’s surface at the same temperature. Emissivity is the ability of a material to emit, absorb or radiate heat from the sun (Elert, 2018: online). Studies on LULC and LST in developing countries (Adelekan, 2012; Aakriti & Ram, 2014: 126; Swades & Ziaul, 2017: 134; Zaharaddeen, Baba & Ayuba, 2016: 36; Nzoiwu, Agulue, Mbah & Igboanugo, 2017: 772-773) have not paid much attention to the nexus of LSE and increasing urban temperature. In addition, owing to the difficulty in obtaining and scarcity of spatial data (Olomo, 2003: 39-40; Enaruvbe & Pontius Jr, 2015: 252; Enaruvbe, 2018: 40), implications of LULC, LST and the effect of urban heat island on living conditions and city resilience have not been documented. Therefore, this article examines the spatio-temporal trend and nexus of LULC, LSE and LST in Ibadan, Nigeria, adopting climatological and Landsat data. The article also examines the perception of the residents on LULC and LST.

2. STUDY AREAIbadan city, in south-west Nigeria, is located approximately on longitude 3o5’ to 4o36’ east of the Greenwich Meridian, and latitude 7o23’ to 7o55’ north of the Equator. It covers an area of approximately 3,200km2 (Figure 1). Ibadan is located at roughly 145km north of Lagos. In the early 1980s, the city had an aerial extent of approximately 30,080km2, with the metropolis covering roughyl 250km2 of the landmass (Oladele & Oladimeji, 2011: 639).

The Ibadan region is made up of five metropolitan (Ibadan North, Ibadan South, Ibadan Northwest, Ibadan Southwest and Ibadan Northeast) and six rural/peri-urban

Oluwasinaayomi Kasim, Samuel Agbola & Michael Oweniwe • Land use land cover change and land surface emissivity in Ibadan, Nigeria

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LGAs (Akinyele, Oluyole, Egbeda, Ido, Lagelu & Ona-Ara). In 1950, the population of the city was 450,111 and the total population of the city from the 2006 census was 2,550,593 with an average population density of 828 persons per km2 (National Population Commission, 2006). This census result was challenged by the Oyo State Government, owing to a perceived undercount. According to the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs Population Dynamics (2018: online), the city’s 2020 population is estimated at 3,551,961. In the absence of proactive physical planning strategy, this population outlook has implications for LULC and the capacity of decision makers to respond to climate change impacts and urban resilience to perturbations.

Ibadan’s climate is characterized by a tropical wet and dry climate, with an extended wet season and relatively constant temperature all year round. The wet season is from March to October, with August experiencing a break in rainfall, thereby dividing

the wet season into two different wet seasons. The dry season is from November to February when the city is influenced by the typical West African harmattan (Audu, Isikwue & Eweh, 2015: 72). According to Audu and Isikwue (2015: 62), the albedo variations in Ibadan may be due to the location of Ibadan in the tropical rain forest, where the mean albedo value obtained is 0.528, with maximum and minimum albedo values of 0.645 and 0.364, respectively. They also observed that the albedo of Ibadan city is usually very high in the rainy season, with its highest value in August (0.641), and low in the dry season, with its lowest value at the onset of the dry season and relatively low at the transition from dry to rainy seasons.

3. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

This study adopts a mixed methods research strategy where qualitative and quantitative data are collected in parallel, analysed separately, and then merged (Creswell, 2014). It

also allows for descriptive statistical analysis (Naoum, 2013: 104). In this study, satellite imageries were used to classify the land cover change and emissivity in the years 2000, 2009 and 2018 in Ibadan by determining LULC, NDVI, NDBI, LSE, LST and the driver of LULC and LSE, using meteorological data and Landsat data. This approach was adopted in the integrated design approach in evaluating spatial patterns of land surface temperature and urban heat island for sustainable cities across the globe (Skivington, 2012; Aakriti & Ram, 2014; Zaharaddeen et al., 2016; Folorunsho, Balogun, Adediji, Olumide & Abdulkareem, 2017). In addition, an integrated design approach allows for complementary roles, for example, while remotely sensed images can show land cover change, they do not clearly show how land use choice and decision-making influence LULC outcomes (Messah & Kigige, 2011). The questionnaire assessed people’s perception (in all the local government areas in the city) of the changes in LULC and LST.

Figure 1: Ibadan region in the context of Oyo State and Nigeria Source Figure 1: Ibadan region in the context of Oyo State and Nigeria

Source: Department of Urban and Regional Planning, University of Ibadan

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3.1 Sampling and response rate

From a preliminary survey, a total of 373,184 residential buildings were identified in the study area (Table 1). Random sampling was used to select 373 of the residential buildings in Ibadan. From the distribution, 373 household heads were selected per residential building, using the simple random sampling technique (Alvi, 2016: 35). Primary data were collected using questionnaires to determine respondent profiles, the effects (thermal comfort) and perception of people on LULC and LST. In addition, an observatory checklist was used to ascertain the types of landscape materials in the respondents’ compound and the type of building materials used. The structured questionnaire was

administered on 373 households, a 0.1% of the existing residential buildings (373,184) distributed across the 11 local government areas in Ibadan. The sample size for research done in construction-related populations was calculated in accordance with the table recommended by Krejcie and Morgan (1970: 608). All the questionnaires administered were returned and used for the analysis (Table 1).

3.2 Data collection

3.2.1 Satellite imagery

Remote sensing technology plays a vital role in spatial analysis by providing accurate and reliable information that is cost effective within a shorter time frame. The

technology also provides the opportunity to update land use and land cover information efficiently and cheaply, in order to keep an inventory and monitor changes (Hamzah, 2015). The multispectral imagery used in this study was sourced from the American Landsat satellite (EC, 2000). In this study, Landsat satellite imageries for 2000, 2009 and 2018 were used to obtain land cover categories for image classification, LSE and surface temperature of Ibadan city. Satellite imagery was used to classify the land cover of Ibadan city and extract information for LSE and LST (Table 2). The pre-processing procedures to correct for geometric and radiometric errors as well as calibration of the images to per cent reflectance were undertaken on the images. The selected images were geo-referenced in the Universal Transverse Mercator (UTM) coordinate system and rectified to correspond to the World Geodetic System (WGS) 1984 UTM Zone 32N.

Google EarthTM combines Google Search with satellite imagery, maps, terrain and 3D buildings to make the world locational and geographic information available (Brovelli, Minghini & Valentini, 2011). Google EarthTM has the capacity to display satellite images of varying resolution of at least 15 meters of resolution of the Earth’s surface, allowing users to visualize cities and structure (houses) therein perpendicularly or at an oblique angle, with perspective. Owing to this capacity, it was used to clearly view land cover categories in order to validate the LULC analysis outcomes across the local government areas of the city.

3.2.2 Land surface temperature and emissivity

The derivation of LST is a multistep method that entails conversion of the Digital Number (DN) to Spectral Radiance, conversion of spectral radiance to satellite brightness temperature, LST extraction and conversion of LST from Kelvin to degree celsius. These methods are quite different for each sensor, that is Landsat 7 and 8 (Landsat

Table 1: Sample and response rate

Ibadan regionLocal

government areas

Residential buildings 2017

Sample size @ 0.1% Responses Response rate

(%)

Ibadan urban

Ibadan North 39,670 39.670 40 100Ibadan North-East 43,149 43.149 43 100

Ibadan North-West 19,751 19.751 20 100

Ibadan South-East 34,692 34.692 35 100

Ibadan South-West 36,330 36.330 36 100

Ibadan sub-urban

Akinyele 35,349 35.349 35 100Egbeda 47,133 47.133 47 100Ido 17,079 17.079 17 100Lagelu 24,672 24.672 25 100Ona Ara 43,468 43.468 43 100Oluyole 31,891 31.891 32 100

Total 373,184 373.184 373

Table 2: Bands and wavelength of each Landsat sensor used to collect satellite imagery

Band designations Landsat 7 ETM + (2000-2009) Landsat 8 OLI/TIRS (2018)

Coastal/Aerosol Band 1 0.43-0.45Blue Band 1 0.45-0.52 Band 2 0.45-0.52Green Band 2 0.52-0.60 Band 3 0.52-0.60Panchromatic Band 8 0.52-0.90 Band 8 0.52-0.90Red Band 3 0.63-0.69 Band 4 0.63-0.69Near-Infrared Band 4 0.76-0.90 Band 5 0.76-0.90Cirrus Band 9 1.36-1.38Shortwave Infrared-1 Band 5 1.55-1.75 Band 6 1.55-1.75

Shortwave Infrared-2 Band 7 2.08-2.35 Band 7 2.08-2.35

Thermal Band 6 VCID 1 10.40-12.50 Band 10 T1 10.40-12.50Thermal Band 6 VCID 2 Band 11 T1 11.50-12.51

Source: Landsat Project Science Office, 2018


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Project Science Office 2002). The Landsat 7 TM thermal band 6 VCID 1 (10.40-12.50μm), Band 6 VCID 2 and Landsat 8 OLI thermal band 10 (10.60-11.19μm) and Band 11 (11.50-12.51μm) are suitable for capturing the multifaceted intra-urban temperature differences and analysis (Landsat Project Science Office 2002). Landsat 7 TM sensor images in the thermal band were taken twice: one in the low-gain mode (Band 6 VCID 1) and the other in the high-gain mode (Band 6 VCID 2). In addition, Landsat 8 OLI thermal bands were taken twice: one in the low-gain mode (Band 10) and the other in the high-gain mode (Band 11). However, the uniformly resampled Landsat thermal bands used to carry out the thermal analysis for the three different periods (2000, 2009, and 2018) were based on the following steps:

a. Conversion of the DN to spectral reflectance (ρλ) Equation 1

b. Sun Angle Correction Equation 2

c. Conversion of the DN to spectral radiance (Lλ) Equation 3

d. Conversion of spectral radiance (Lλ) to satellite brightness temperature (celsius) Equation 4

e. Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) Equation 5

f. Proportion of Vegetation Equation 6

g. Normalized Difference Built-Up Index (NDBI) Equation 7

h. LSE Equation 8

i. LST Equation 9

j. Change percentage Equation 10

k. Accuracy assessment Equations 11 & 12

i. Conversion of the DN to spectral reflectance (ρλ): Spectral

reflectance is the brightness of a surface in different regions of the electromagnetic spectrum; the spectral reflectance of an object depends on the particular material and its physical and chemical state; the surface roughness, and the geometric circumstance (Glass 2013). It is expressed as:

pλ = MQQCal + AQ Equation 1

Where:

ρλ = Spectral Reflectance

MQ = Band Specific Reflectance Multiplicative Rescaling Factor from the Metadata File

AQ = Band Specific Reflectance Additive Rescaling Factor from the Metadata File

QCal= Quantified and Calibrated Standard Product Pixel Values (DN)

ii. The sun angle correction is a form of radiometric correction. When a sensor from a satellite observes an emitted energy, the observed energy does not coincide with the energy emitted or reflected from the same object observed from a short distance, owing to the sun’s azimuth and elevations, and the atmospheric conditions such as fogs or aerosols. In order to obtain the real radiance or reflectance, the radiometric correction for sun angle has to be done. This is expressed as:

Sun Angle Correction:Sin(Sun Elevation)pλ

Equation 2

Where:

ρλ = Spectral reflectance

Sun Elevation = as contained in the metadata file for 2000, 2009 and 2018 Landsat imageries.

iii. Conversion of the DN to spectral radiance (Lλ). Every object emits thermal electromagnetic energy, because the temperature of any object is above absolute

zero (K). Following this principle, the signals received by the thermal sensors from Landsat satellite imagery were converted to sensor radiance (Landsat Project Science Office 2002). The conversion was done, using equation 3:

Lλ = MLQCal + AL Equation 3

Where:

Lλ = Spectral Radiance

ML = Band Specific Radiance Multiplicative Rescaling Factor from the Metadata File

AL = Band Specific Radiance Additive Rescaling Factor from the Metadata File

QCal = Quantified and Calibrated Standard Product Pixel Values (DN)

iv. Conversion of spectral radiance (Lλ) to satellite brightness temperatures (in celsius). Corrections for emissivity were applied to the radiant temperatures, according to the nature of land cover. In general, vegetated areas are given a value of 0.95 and non-vegetated areas 0.92 (Tarawally, Xu, Hou & Mushore, 2018). It is expressed as:

T = K2K2

Lλ+ 1In - 272.15

Equation 4

Where:

T = At Satellite Temperature (oC)

Lλ = Spectral Radiance

K1 = Band Specific Thermal Conversion Constant from the Metadata File

K2 = Band Specific Thermal Conversion Constant from the Metadata File

272.15 = Constant for conversion from Kelvin to Celsius

v. Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) is an important indicator of vegetation condition, stress and greenness or biomass. The values of NDVI

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range between -1 to +1, where higher values indicate healthy vegetation cover and negative values represent land surface devoid of vegetation cover such as built-up areas and water bodies (Lo & Quattrochi, 2003: 77-79; Yuan & Bauer, 2007: 381-383). However, to get the best results from the combination of the NIR and RED bands, certain corrections are needed (Bruce & Hilbert, 2006). The bands were first converted to spectral radiance and the sun angle corrected. The NDVI in a Landsat satellite image is generated from the red (3rd) and near-infrared (4th) bands and it appropriately represents the coverage and condition of vegetation (Aakriti & Ram, 2014). The NDVI, a widely used vegetation index, was calculated using equation 5:

NDVI = NIRum - RedumNIRum + Redum

Equation 5

The NDVI was computed for 2000 and 2009 from bands 3 and 4 reflectance data, while it was computed from bands 4 and 5 for 2018.

vi. Estimation of Proportion of Vegetation represents the exposed proportion of green, non-green, and bare cover within each pixel. It is important for the estimation of land surface conditions such as soil erosion, and for assessing the impact of human activities (TERN, 2017: online). It is expressed in equation 6:

NDVI - NDVIminPv =NDVImax - NDVImin

2

Equation 6

Where

Pv = Proportion of Vegetation

NDVI = DN value for a specific year

NDVImin = Minimum NDVI value for a specific year

NDVImax = maximum NDVI value for a specific year

vii. Derivation of Normalized Difference Built Index (NDBI). The NDBI image was computed for 2000 and 2009 from the bands 4 and 5 reflectance data while bands 5, 6, 10 and 11 were computed for 2018. It was calculated using equation 7:

NDVI = NIRum - RedumNIRum + Redum

Equation 7

viii. Derivation of Land Surface Emissivity (LSE). Satellite-sensed thermal infrared (TIR) data is the major source for estimating surface emissivity for a region. The estimated surface emissivity is derived from fine spatial resolution satellite data such as Landsat image TIR bands (Yang, 2003). Corrections for spectral emissivity are necessary and were done according to the nature of land cover, after deriving the Normalized Differences Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Normalized Differences Built-Up Index (NDBI) values for each satellite imagery pixel, as shown in equation 8.

ε = (0.004 * Pv) + 0.986 Equation 8

Where:

ε = Emissivity Value

0.0004 and 0.986 = Constant Values

Pv = Proportion of Vegetation

The land surface emissivity was retrieved using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) threshold method (Tarawally et al., 2018). According to the method, when NDVI <0.2, the pixels are considered as bare lands and the emissivity was retrieved from the red spectral region. When NDVI >0.5, the pixels are considered to be full vegetation coverage and the emissivity value is assumed to be 0.99. When NDVI ranges between 0.2 and 0.5, the pixels are considered to be a mixture of soil and vegetation (Tarawally et al., 2018). Equation 8 was used to estimate Land

Surface Emissivity. Table 3 presents reference values of emissivity for some materials that are peculiar to the land cover classes for the study.

ix. Derivation of Land Surface Temperature (LST). This is the radiative temperature of the land surface as measured in the direction of the remote sensor. It is estimated from atmosphere brightness temperatures, using the infrared spectral channels of the satellites. This is done by using equation 9:

LST =

1 +w*

BTp *In ε

BT

Equation 9

Where

LST = Land Surface Temperature (0oC)

BT = At Satellite Temperature ρ = h* c

s (1.438 * 10-2 mk)

h = Planck’s constant (6.626 * 10-34Js)

c = Velocity of Light (2.998 * 108 m/s)

s = Boltzmann’s Constant (1.38 × 10-23J/k)

3.3 Data analysis

The Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) version 25 and Microsoft Excel were used to analyse the aspatial data, in order to determine and report the frequency and percentage of respondents’ profile such as gender, age, level of education, monthly income, and duration of residency in the community. Residents’ perception of LULC, causes of land use change and dominant environmental condition that had changed were also measured and reported in terms of frequencies and/or percentages. An observation checklist was used to document types and colour of roofing materials, type of material used for building walls, and landscaping materials. The results were also presented in the form of frequencies and/or percentages.


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Spatial data were analysed, using ArcGIS 10.0. This was used for overlay operations where maps generated were superimposed on one another and the percentage change and trend between 2000 and 2018 was identified. The percentage change for each year was measured against each land use land cover type and the formula is expressed as:

Percentage Change = Observed ChangeSum of Change

x 100

Equation 10The accuracy measurement of how many ground truth pixels were classified correctly was done, because no map is a perfect

representation of reality (Hamzah 2015). There are always errors in maps and there is a need to assess the level of accuracy. The result of an accuracy assessment provides an overall accuracy of the map based on the average of the accuracies for each class in the map. It is expressed as:

Overall Accuracy = Number of Pixels Correctly classifiedTotal Number of Pixel

Equation 11

Kappa is used to measure the agreement or accuracy between the remote sensing derived classification map and the reference data as indicated by the major diagonals

and the chance agreement, which is indicated by the row and column totals (Im & Jensen, 2005: 328-331). Producer’s accuracy is the total number of correct pixels in a category that is divided by the total number of pixels of that category, as derived from the reference data (Im & Jensen, 2005). The kappa factor is given by the formula:

K ={NΣr xii - Σr (xi + *x +i)}

{N 2 - Σr (xi + *x +i)}i=1 i=1

i=1 Equation 12

Which is interpreted as:

K ={(Total * Sum of Correct) - Sum of all the (Row Total * Column Total)}

{Total Squared - Sum of all the (Row Total * Column Total)}

The average overall accuracy and kappa coefficient of the Landsat imageries obtained for 2000, 2009 and 2018 for Ibadan City were 0.967% and 0.951%, respectively. This validated the suitability of data for the analyses in the study.

4. RESULTS

4.1 QuestionnaireTable 4 shows the demographic profile of respondents. The vast majority (60.0%) of the respondents were male. Approximately 11.0% of them were within the age bracket of 19-29 years; 38.9% were aged 30-39 years, and 50.5% of the respondents were aged 40 years and above. In terms of level of education, the vast majority (61.3%) had tertiary education certificates; 33.8% had secondary school certificates, while primary education and no formal education were represented by 4.3% and 0.5%, respectively.

The modal income class for the respondents was N60,001-N90,000 accounting for 23.3%. Income group of between N30,001 and N60,000 were represented by 22.0%; those who fell within income group of N18,000-N30,000 were 20.1%, and N90,001-N120,000 were 13.9%. Those who earned less than N18,000 per month were 2.1%, and 17.9% had monthly income

Table 3: Land Surface Emissivity (LSE) estimation for some materialsLand cover class Materials Ε

Built up

Asphalt (paving) 0.97Brick (red-rough) 0.93Brick (silica-unglazed rough) 0.80Concrete 0.94Copper (plate heavily oxidized) 0.78Glass (smooth) 0.94Granite (polished) 0.85Marble (light grey polished) 0.93Plaster (white) 0.91Plywood 0.96Wood (freshly planed) 0.90Paint 0.94Tile (floor, glazed) 0.94P.V.C. 0.92Mortar 0.87Gravel 0.28Cement 0.54

Water body Water 0.95Grass/Shrub land and dense vegetation Vegetation 0.96

Source: Jin & Liang (2006) and ThermoWorks (2019)

Table 4: Respondents profile (N=373)Category Items F %

GenderMale 224 60.0Female 149 40.0

Age

19-29 40 10.730-39 145 38.940-49 61 16.450+ 127 34.1

Education

None 2 0.5Primary 16 4.3Secondary 126 33.8Tertiary 229 61.3

Monthly Income (N)

<18,000 8 2.118,000-30,000 75 20.130,001-60,000 82 22.060,001-90,000 87 23.390,001-120,000 54 14.5120,001 and above 67 17.9

Duration of stay<year-9 262 70.210-19 68 28.220+ 43 11.6

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of N120,000 and above. The vast majority (70.2%) of the respondents had been residing in their current residences for between 1 and 9 years; 28.2% of the respondents had been in the neighbourhoods for 10-19 years, and 11.5% of the respondents had been residing in the present locations for over 20 years.

As shown in Table 5, almost three quarters of the respondents indicated that land use had not changed in their neighbourhoods, while 26.8% submitted that the land use had changed. The response on land use change could be a function of the individual’s location within the city scape. It may also be a reflection

of the duration of occupancy in the localities, as the vast majority (70.2%) of the respondents had been residing within their location for over ten years, as shown in Table 4. Owing to the respondents’ location, the perception of land use change varies across the Ibadan regions, although approximately 70% of the respondents reported that the predominant land use change is conversion of agricultural land to residential development.

Table 6 lists some of the major causes of land use change, as identified by the respondents. The most significant accounting for more than half of the submission was provision of housing to the growing population (51.0%). Other causal factors were road construction and expansion of the existing ones (23.1%) and commercial activities (22.8%). Approximately 2.0% of the respondents identified agricultural activities as driver; 1.2% pointed to flooding and erosion, while others, including waste disposal, bush burning and abandoned projects, accounted for 1.2%.

As shown in Table 7, the vast majority (88.2%) of the respondents affirmed that the environment has changed. The major issues that have changed, as submitted by the respondents, included temperature increase and decrease, represented by 61.8% and 3.6%, respectively. Other environmental issues were deforestation and flooding, accounting for 20.3% and 14.3%, respectively. Albedo, the rate of reflection of sun energy into the atmosphere, is a function of surface material. As shown in Table 7, the aluminium component, represented by 87.4%, constituted the main roofing material, while stone-coated materials accounted for 12.6%. In terms of the colour of roofing materials, shining surfaces such as silver accounted for 61.1% of the buildings sampled and dark surfaces of various shades represented 38.9%. The building materials used for construction show that sandcrete was dominant and the major landscaping materials were

Table 5: Details of land use change by respondents (N=373)Category Variable F %

Land use changeIt has changed 100 26.8It has not changed 273 73.2

Prominent land use change and drivers

Agricultural-Residential 69 69.0Commercial-Residential 5 5.0Residential-Commercial 4 4.0Industrial-Residential 3 3.0Agricultural-Commercial 2 2.0Agricultural-Recreational 2 2.0Commercial-Religious 2 2.0Residential-Religious 2 2.0Educational-Agricultural 1 1.0Infrastructure/Service-Agricultural 1 1.0Residential-Recreational 1 1.0Commercial-Recreational 1 1.0Recreational-Residential 1 1.0Agricultural-Educational 1 1.0Recreational-Educational 1 1.0Residential-Educational 1 1.0Recreational-Institutional 1 1.0Commercial-Institutional 1 1.0Agricultural-Religious 1 1.0

Table 6: Perception of causes of land use change (N=373)Causes F %

Housing and population growth 160 51.0%Road construction and expansion 74 23.1%Commercial activities 73 22.8%Agricultural activities 5 1.6%Flood and erosion 4 1.2%Others 4 1.2%

Table 7: Perception of environmental change, temperature increase and reflectance materials(N=373)

Category Variable F %

Change in environmentChanged 329 88.2Not changed 44 11.8

Issues that have changed

Temperature increase 277 61.8Temperature decrease 16 3.6Deforestation 91 20.3Flooding 64 14.3

Type of roofing materials usedAluminium 326 87.4Stone-coated 47 12.6

Colour of roofing material

Silver and white 47 12.6Brown 228 61.1Red 77 20.6Green 24 6.4Blue 18 4.8Black 16 4.3Beige 6 1.6Yellow 2 0.5

Type of building block usedSandcrete 288 77.2Brick 81 21.7Mud 4 1.1

Landscape material usedHardscape 172 46.1Softscape 146 39.1Softscape and hardscape 55 14.8


79

hardscape, especially concrete. All these have implications on the surface temperature of the environment, as will be shown in subsequent sections.

4.2 Normalized Difference Vegetation Index

The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) estimation for the year 2000 value was higher in the semi-urban local government areas (LGA) of the city. This could be attributed to the concentration of vegetation in the semi-urban LGA in year 2000. Figure 3 presents the names of communities in the suburban LGAs with high NDVI values. These were Moniya (Akinyele LGA), Agudu, Alufa and Odo-Oba (Egbeda LGA), Saliu, Igbona, Elewe, Idiamu, Idi-Aya, Aba-Ada, Ogbontosan and Ajibode (Ido LGA) Elesu and Akobo (Lagelu LGA), Araromi, Awise, Akanran, Abu-Kuye, and Arinokuta (Ona-Ara LGA) and Ogunmakin, Kaka, Onigambari, Ake, Ajao and Olujudoro (Oluyole LGA). All the listed communities, as obtained from the questionnaire administered and interviews conducted, were rustic in year 2000.

It was also estimated that the NDVI value was higher in the semi-urban local government areas (LGA) in the year 2009, but the number of communities in each rural LGA with high NDVI values declined in 2009 when compared with year 2000. Figure 3 reveals the communities in the LGAs with high NDVI values to include Opawole (Akinyele LGA), Saliu, Idi-Aya, Aba-Ada, Ogbontosan and Ajibode (Ido LGA), Akanran, Abu-Kuye, Awise, Araromi and Olujuduro (Ona-Ara LGA) and Onigambari, Onipe and Idi Ayunre (Oluyole LGA). The NDVI values in year 2018 reduced significantly and very few communities had dense vegetation. It was estimated that the NDVI value was higher in the semi-urban local government areas (LGAs) in the year 2018. In Ido LGA, the communities with high value NDVI were Idi-Aya and Ogbontosan; in Ona-Ara LGA, the communities were Akanran, Araromi, Awise and Olujuduro.

The nexus of 2000, 2009 and 2018 NDVI estimations is presented in Table 8. Theoretically, NDVI values are represented as a ratio ranging in value from -1 to +1. However, in

practice, extreme negative values represent water, values around zero represent bare soil and values close to one represent dense green vegetation (Babalola & Akinsanola,

Figure 3: NDVI estimation for years 2000, 2009 and 2018

2009

2000

Source: Extracted from Landsat Imageries 2000, 2009 and 2018

2018

Figure 3: NDVI estimation for years 2000, 2009 and 2018Source: Extracted from Landsat Imageries 2000, 2009 and 2018

80


2016). Figure 3 shows the spatial distribution of NDVI in the city for the years 2000, 2009 and 2018. Visual inspection ascertained the differences of each NDVI. The highest degree of difference was observed in 2000, with the majority of NDVI values appearing to be below 0. Table 8 indicates the high and low NDVI values for the years 2000, 2009 and 2018. For the years 2000 and 2009, the NDVI value showed that the condition of the vegetation tended towards +0.5, which was an indicator of healthy vegetation. In

2018, the increased concentration of built-up areas placed a demand on vegetation cover; thus, the NDVI value for the year decreased.

4.3 Proportion of vegetation

Figure 4 represents the exposed proportion of green, non-green, and bare cover within each pixel for Landsat Satellite imageries for the years 2000, 2009 and 2018. The formula used in calculating the proportion of vegetation was expressed in Equation 6. The

outcomes were further used to analyse the Normalized Difference Built-Up Index (NDBI).

4.4 Normalized Difference Built-Up Index

The Normalized Difference Built-Up Index (NDBI) is also considered an important factor and indicator of land surface emissivity and temperature (Grover & Singh, 2015: 135-137). Xiong, Huang, Chen, Ye, Wang and Zhu (2012) observe that high temperature anomalies are closely associated with built-up land, densely populated zones, and heavily industrialised districts. NDBI is sensitive to built-up land, and its values also range between -1 to +1; positive values represent highly built-up land and negative values indicate other types of land cover (Chen, Zhao, Li & Yin, 2006). Equation 7 is applied for estimating NDBI (Chen et al., 2006; Xu, 2007). Figure 5 depicts the extracted NDBI classes indicating intensity and spatial pattern of built-up and impervious land area for the year 2000. The minimum and maximum NDBI values were 0.351 and 0.531, respectively. However, in the city, especially in the core area, except for the water body areas, very high NDBI values (0.061 to 0.531) were recorded.

The extracted intensity and spatial pattern of the built-up area and impervious land area for the year 2009 minimum and maximum NDBI values were -0.434 and 0.750, respectively. The concentration of built-up area in the core of the city has the highest NDBI values (0.025 to 0.750), which includes Ibadan North, Ibadan North-East, Ibadan North-West, Ibadan South-East and Ibadan South-West. However, high NDBI values were recorded in various parts of Ibadan suburban areas as the town and neighbourhoods spread from the urban areas into the suburban areas. The areas covered with vegetation possessed negative NDBI values ranging from -0.434 to -0.281. The minimum and maximum NDBI values for the built-up area and impervious land areas for the year 2018 were

Table 8: NDVI values for the years 2000, 2009 and 2018

YearNDVI values

Low High Mean2000 -0.0204446 0.436513 0.2080342009 0.0365825 0.580479 0.3085312018 0.0404277 0.479767 0.260097

Source: Extracted from Landsat Imageries 2000, 2009 and 2018Figure 4: Proportion of vegetation increase/decrease between the years 2000-2009 and 2009-2018

Source: Extracted

Grass/ShrubLand/Open Space Dense Vegetation Water Body Built Up

22.9 -49.0 69.4 33.3

-60.0

-40.0

-20.0

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

Perc

enta

ge In

crea

se/D

ecre

ase

Class

2000-2009

Grass/ShrubLand/Open Space Dense Vegetation Water Body Built Up

2.3 -33.9 24.9 14.0

-40.0

-30.0

-20.0

-10.0

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

Perc

enta

ge In

vcre

ase/

Dec

reas

e

Class

2009-2018

Figure 4: Proportion of vegetation increase/decrease between the years 2000-2009 and 2009-2018

Source: Extracted from Landsat imageries 2000, 2009 and 2018


81

-0.364 and 0.602, respectively. The concentration of built-up area in the core have the highest NDBI values, ranging between 0.023 and 0.602, which includes Ibadan North, Ibadan North-East, Ibadan North-West, Ibadan South-East and Ibadan

South-West. High NDBI values were also recorded in various parts of Ibadan’s suburban areas as the town and neighbourhoods spread from the urban areas into the suburban areas. The areas covered with vegetation

possess negative NDBI values ranging between -0.364 and -0.190.

The nexus of 2000, 2009 and 2018 NDBI estimations captured in Figure 5 shows the relationship in the concentration of buildings and impervious surfaces across the years 2000, 2009 and 2018 values. The estimation indicated that, between 2000 and 2009, the area of concentration of impervious surface increased by approximately 31,877 acres and, between 2009 and 2018, it further increased by approximately 62,518 acres.

4.5 Estimation of land surface emissivity

The dense vegetation and grass/shrub lands, as shown in Figure 6 for the year 2000 had the lowest minimum 0.9860 and 0.9862, while the maximum emissivity values were 0.9862 and 0.9863. This was an indication that vegetated canopy intercepts incoming short-wave solar energy. Solar heating of the earth’s surface is uneven, because land absorbs heat faster than water, causing air to warm, expand and rise over land while it cools and sinks over the cooler water surfaces (National Oceanic and Atmospheric 2017). This explains the mean emissivity value for water in the year 2000 (0.9863). Surfaces that are perpendicular to the sun’s ray path without any obstruction from buildings and canopy cover also emit high heat waves (National Oceanic and Atmospheric, 2017). This further explains the emissivity value for the year 2000, which is 0.9864.

In 2009, the vegetated area had the lowest mean emissivity values of 0.9861 and 0.9862. The mean emissivity value for water and open space in the year 2009 were 0.9864 and 0.9865, respectively, and that of the built-up area in the year 2009 was 0.9867. In the year 2018, the vegetated area had the lowest maximum and minimum emissivity values of 0.9860 and 0.9861, respectively. The mean emissivity value for water and open space in the year 2000 were 0.9861 and 0.9862, respectively. The mean emissivity

Figure 5: Concentration of buildings and impervious surface in the years 2000, 2009 and 2018

Source

Year 2000 Year 2009 Year 2018Area Concentration (Acres) 59375.3 91200.0 153701.9

0.0

50000.0

100000.0

150000.0

200000.0

Acres

Figure 5: Concentration of buildings and impervious surface in the years 2000, 2009 and 2018

Source: Extracted from Landsat imageries 2000, 2009 and 2018Figure 6: Land Surface Emissivity for 2000, 2009 and 2018

2000

Figure 6: Land Surface Emissivity for 2000, 2009 and 2018Source: Extracted from Landsat imageries, 2000, 2009 and 2018absorbency materials. Figure 7: Land Surface Emissivity value for land cover classes in the year 2018

Source: Extracted from Landsat imageries for 2000, 2009 and

0.98570.98580.98590.986

0.98610.98620.98630.98640.98650.9866

Dense vegetation Grass/ShrubLand/Open Space

Water Body Built-Up Area

Average LSE Value for Year 2000, 2009 and 2018 Min.

Average LSE Value for Year 2000, 2009 and 2018 Max.

Average LSE Value for Year 2000, 2009 and 2018 Mean

Figure 7: Land Surface Emissivity value for land cover classes in the year 2018

Source: Extracted from Landsat imageries for 2000, 2009 and 2018

82


value for the built-up area in the year 2018 was 0.9864. This was slightly lower than the values for the years 2000 and 2009, but higher than the values for other types of land use for the year 2018, as shown in Figure 6.

Figure 7 presents the nexus of 2000, 2009 and 2018 LSE estimations of spatial distribution of surface emissivity values, using the NDVI threshold method. The average LSE value for the years 2000, 2009 and 2018 revealed that the NDVI mean values for dense vegetation, grass/shrub land/open space, water body and built-up area were 0.9860, 0.9861, 0.9862 and 0.9864, respectively. The NDVI value indicated that the year 2000 had a reduced maximum value compared to other analysed years. This was a reflection that materials that could absorb solar radiation and convert it to internal energy were available, especially in the form of vegetation cover. In the year 2018, the minimum value ranged between 0.0404277 and -0.479767, indicating a depletion in absorbency materials.

4.6 Land Surface Temperature estimation

The mathematical algorithm in equation 9 was used to estimate the land surface temperature (LST). The mean estimated dry bulb temperature for Ibadan city obtained from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency for the years 2000, 2009 and 2018 were 27.2°C, 27.4°C and 27.5°C, respectively. At the micro-level of the analysis, Figure 8 shows the LST values for each of the classes of land use for the years 2000, 2009 and 2018. In the year 2000, the dense vegetation (22.5°C) and grass/shrub land/open space (24.5°C) indicated that surface temperature decreased towards the periphery and was directly related to land use and land cover types. From the analyses, waterbody, with relatively high heat storage and transfer capacity, had a mean surface temperature of 26°C. The highest temperature, 33.5°C, was recorded in the core area of the city where the built-up area was concentrated. The outcome was influenced by multiple factors such as

was 55°C. Figure 8: Land Surface Temperature 2000, 2009 and 2018

Class LST VALUE (°C)

Minimum Maximum MeanDense vegetation 21 24 22.5 Grass/Shrub Land/Open space 24 25 24.5 Water body 25 27 26 Built-up area 28 39 33.5

Class 2009 LST Value (°C)

Minimum Maximum MeanDense vegetation 20 22 21 Grass/Shrub Land/Open space 22 24 23 Water body 24 25 24.5

2000

2009

Built-up area 27 47 37

Class LST Value (°C)

Minimum Maximum MeanDense vegetation 17 25 21 Grass/Shrub Land/Open space 25 27 26 Water body 27 29 28 Built-up area 31 55 43

Source: Extracted

2018

Figure 8: Land Surface Temperature 2000, 2009 and 2018Source: Extracted from Landsat imageries, 2000, 2009 and 2018


83

impervious surface, LULC, surface roughness, and materials used for construction (Aakriti & Ram, 2014). The lowest surface temperature recorded for the year 2000 was 21°C, while the highest was 39°C.

The visual representation and values of LST for each of the classes of land use in 2009 indicate that surface temperature for dense vegetation was 21°C and for grass/shrub land, 23°C. The water body mean surface temperature was recorded at 24.5°C. The highest temperature (37°C) was recorded in the core area of Ibadan. However, in some pockets of areas/locations, the LST value was also recorded as 37°C. The lowest surface temperature value for the year 2009 was 20°C and the highest was 47°C. In 2018, as shown in Figure 8, dense vegetation and grass/shrub land/open space had a mean surface temperature of 21°C and 26°C, respectively. Water body mean surface temperature was 28°C. The highest temperature (43°C) was recorded in the core area of Ibadan. The lowest surface temperature for the year 2018 was 17°C, while the highest was 55°C.

The nexus of the 2000, 2009 and 2018 LST estimations, as shown in Figure 9, indicate that surface temperature increased from year 2000 to 2018. This is attributable to human activities that change the natural composition of the land cover in the city. Therefore, construction materials used such

as impervious concrete, asphalt and building materials; LULC and surface roughness from the built-up areas contributed to the increase in temperature of Ibadan’s urban areas.

5. DISCUSSIONAmong the pertinent issues in urban centres is the increasing in temperature of the land surface, owing to changes in land use and land cover, particularly the conversion of pervious surfaces to impervious surfaces This study analysed the spatio-temporal trend and nexus of LULC change and emissivity in the years 2000, 2009 and 2018. The goal was to determine LULC, NDVI, NDBI, LSE, LST and the driver of LULC and LSE in Ibadan, using meteorological data and Landsat data. This study also examined the perception of the people (in all the local government areas in the city) on the changes of LULC and LST.

The increased temperature associated with land surface emissivity have been documented as having major negative environmental impacts, not only on urban environments, but also on rural areas, by contributing to climate change (Arrau & Pena, 2010: online; Kasim et al., 2018: 806; NIMET, 2018). Data obtained from NIMET documented the mean dry bulb temperature for the city in the years 2000, 2009 and 2018 to be 27.2oC, 27.4oC and 27.5oC, respectively. The

increase in temperature, as evident in residents’ response, remains an environmental challenge that affects the inhabitants of the city. This corroborates the findings of Aizebeokhai (2009: 875-876) who reports that the earth’s surface has warmed significantly in the last century. The increase in temperature in Ibadan city has placed a demand on energy consumption by using air-conditioning systems to cope with the harsh environmental condition (Kasim et al., 2018: 809). This has implications for the limited energy capacity of the country that manifests in incessant electrical power outages that aggravates the heat-induced discomfort. As observed by Popoola and Alli (2015: 85) thermal discomfort in Ibadan has been attributed to the effect of the increase in temperature that manifests in headache, high body temperature, and excessive sweating.

According to Abegunde and Oluwatobi (2015: 245-246), increase in temperature is one of the resultant effects of changes in land use land cover. As vital as this information is, the vast majority (62.2%) of the respondents were unaware of the implications of land use change on the environment. This outcome can be changed with effective public awareness programmes, using the available mass media. However, Arimah and Adeagbo (2000: 293) observe that most often, the issue is not simply about households not being aware of the implications of land use change in their environment, but about the compliance of households to planning regulations to avert the adverse environmental implications of land use changes. Studies by Agbola and Agbola (1997: 140-141); Jalili, (2013); Agbola et al., (2014: 45), and Guyassa, Frankl, Lanckriet, Biadgilgn, Zenebe, Zenebe, et al. (2018: 1538-1539) reported that the fastest and common land use conversion is from agricultural to residential land use. This is corroborated by the findings of this study. Other drives of land use conversions were commercial, industrial, recreational, and religious activities. Population

the increase in temperature of Ibadan’s urban areas. Figure 9: Mean Land Surface Temperature for land cover classes for 2000, 2009 and 2018

Source: Extracted from

Dense vegetation Grass/Shrub Land Water Body Built-Up AreaYear 2000 22.5 24.5 26 33.5Year 2009 21 23 24.5 37Year 2018 21 26 28 43

05

101520253035404550

Mea

n te

mpe

ratu

re (O

o C)

Figure 9: Mean Land Surface Temperature for land cover classes for 2000, 2009 and 2018

Source: Extracted from Landsat imageries, 2000, 2009 and 2018

84


growth and residential land use, income generation activities, and road construction are some of the pertinent issues in the conversion of vegetated surface to impervious surface (Mallick, Kant & Bharath, 2008: 137; Quattrochi et al., 2012).

Construction materials with high albedo content used, especially in the city in the conversion of land uses particularly from dense vegetation land use and grass/shrub land/open space land use to built-up land use include building, roofing, and landscaping materials. Findings from the survey revealed that the vast majority of the respondents used concrete blocks in the construction of buildings. According to Shaik, Gorantla and Setty (2016: 499-501), concrete blocks have the best potential for heat resistivity. It was also revealed that the prominent roofing material was aluminium. Adewale (2017: online) reports that an aluminium roof has the highest thermal absorptivity when compared to stone-coated roofing sheet. The colour of a roof also contributes to temperature increase or decrease in an environment. Peters, Victor and Sanya (2017: 92) attest to this, stating that black colours absorb light, whereas white colours reflect light. However, observations showed that most (52.0%) of the roof colour in the study area is silver, while 20.6% of the respondents’ roof colour is brown.

Landscaping material used in an environment has the capacity to influence the thermal environment positively or negatively (Bukola, 2011). Observations from the survey revealed that hardscape elements are predominantly used as landscaping materials, while softscape such as trees, shrubs and flowers are scarcely used. The adoption of softscape, also known as cool pavements, has a renowned ability to effectively reflect light and heat via the albedo effect, directly reducing heat gain by reflecting the sun’s energy into the atmosphere and preventing direct absorption of the energy by the buildings (Global Cool Cities Alliance, 2011: online). Olaleye, Abiodun and Asonibare

(20120: 194-195) observe that land use and land cover dynamics revolve around two questions, notably the causes and the impacts of land use changes and emissivity. However, determining the drivers of land use land cover dynamics and emissivity is not clear as they are debatable. But it is agreed that the two main categories of such agents of change are bio-physical and socio-economic (Mengistu & Salami, 2007: 107). The bio-physical drivers include geo-processes such as climatic variations. The socio-economic drivers comprise economic, political and institutional factors and technological change related to land use, which varies over space with time (Olaleye et al., 2009: 195). In the study, one of the major drivers of LULC is human activities in the form of uncontrolled urban expansion. To strengthen Ibadan’s resilience capacity, the need to adopt physical planning interventions becomes imperative. This should be the adoption of urban consolidation to address the sprawl and enforcement of physical planning provisions on buildable space within a given plot size. For example, as stated in the Oyo state space standards, roughly 55% of a plot area should be for erecting buildings, while the remaining land should be dedicated to softscape such as cool pavements, green development, and urban forest regeneration.

It has been documented that changes in land use land cover cause other environmental issues such as deforestation and flooding (Jha, 2011; Pravitasari, 2015). For example, perennial flooding occurences in the city have been attributed to LULC change and reduction in pervious surfaces, owing to urban expansion and the adoption of hardscale elements, leading to reduction in rainfall percolation and increasing run-off (Agbola, Ajayi, Taiwo & Wahab, 2012: 213-215; Adewole et al., 2015: 200). From the spatial data and Landsat imageries for the years 2000, 2009 and 2018, the built-up area’s land cover and water body, land cover has been on the increase, while dense vegetation was found to be decreasing. The

impervious land cover which was on the increase was attributed to the increase in human activities such as construction of buildings, roads and infrastructure, which also resulted in a loss of approximately 41.8% (1337km2) of dense vegetation. The visual inspection of the differences of each NDVI revealed the high values that were observed in the year 2000 in communities in the rural LGAs (Akinyele, Egbeda, Ido, Lagelu, Ona-Ara & Oluyole) while low values were obtained in urban LGAs of the city. In the year 2018, the NDVI values showed that the condition of the vegetation tends towards +0.5, an indication of decreasing vegetation cover in the rural LGAs such as Ido and Ona-Ara. In addition, the NDBI values revealed that the concentration of built-up area in the core area of the city had the highest NDBI (0.023-0.602). The core areas are Ibadan North, Ibadan North-East, Ibadan North-West, Ibadan South-East, and Ibadan South-West, as well as some parts of Ibadan’s suburban areas with increasing urban encroachment, especially housing construction, to accommodate the growing population. This shows that the concentration of buildings and impervious surfaces over the years has been on the increase; the more the concentration of building and impervious surfaces, the higher the emissivity and temperature in the environment (Grover & Singh, 2015: 135).

Thermal analysis to estimate the LSE and the LST for the years 2000, 2009 and 2018 revealed that dense vegetation and grass/shrub lands had the lowest maximum and minimum emissivity values of 0.9861 and 0.9862, respectively. The vegetation canopy has been documented to intercept incoming short-wave solar radiation, absorb it for the process of photosynthesis, and release excess energy in the process of evapotranspiration (Zaharaddeen et al., 2016: 38-39). However, surfaces that are perpendicular to the sun’s ray path, without any obstruction, peak the heat wave length (National Oceanic and Atmospheric 2017). This is particularly associated with


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built-up land cover. The direct impact of sun’s ray path is responsible for the high emissivity values of elements of the built-up areas. The estimations of LST further revealed that the vegetated areas and water bodies have, over the years, been relatively cooler because of the evapotranspiration process and the water body having the capacity to absorb heatwaves during the day and providing a cooling effect on the environment. The built-up area in the core of the city recorded the highest mean surface temperature at 33.5°C, 37°C and 43°C in the years 2000, 2009 and 2018, respectively. This is higher than the values provided by NIMET and the outcome is also in tandem with Adelekan (2012) who ascertains that Ibadan is exposed to heat stress and incidences of dehydration.

6. CONCLUSIONWith the increase in urbanisation, human activities have generated intense and sometimes excess heat from buildings, transportation, industrial and residential areas in Ibadan, leading to the changing energy balance of the environment. In a world facing rapid urbanisation and a changing climate, it is becoming increasingly important to understand the nexus of LULC change and LSE. Such knowledge gained can be used for environmental education and public awareness to influence policies and strategies to curb the adverse effects of surface emissivity in Ibadan and build the city’s resilience to respond to climate change-induced challenges. Hence, planners and resource managers use the reliable mechanism provided by analysis of LULC change and LST and emissivity to assess the consequence of changes imposed on natural resources, in order to detect, monitor and analyse LULC change, LST and emissivity efficiently. The actions human beings take or fail to take and the path that human beings choose to follow in curbing LSE will either break or make the earth. Human activities on the earth have resulted in increased land surface

temperature. Human beings have the capacity to reduce increase in temperature and its impact by means of appropriate actions. Physical planning interventions, which include adherence to plot size building ratio, urban consolidation, tree planting and other cool approaches to planning, should be adopted, in order to adapt to climate change and build the city’s natural resilience capacity. Therefore, owing to heat reduction components of natural vegetation, as shown in the study, it will be cost effective to adopt plant-a-tree-per-building strategy. This may be extended as urban forestry, which is an integrated, citywide approach to the planting, care and management of trees, in order to secure multiple environmental and social benefits for urban dwellers, build resilience, and entrench sustainable development. However, not taking action to build capacity by reducing or stabilising the emissivity of surface materials would mean more greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, more turbulent weather, and more heat-related diseases. In a world facing rapid urbanisation and changing climate, it is becoming increasingly important to understand the nexus of LULC change and LSE. Such knowledge gained can be used for environmental education and public awareness to influence policies and strategies to curb the adverse effects of surface emissivity in Ibadan and build the city’s resilience to respond to climate change-induced challenges.

7. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

The authors are grateful to the anonymous reviewers for their enlightening, constructive, and useful comments on the manuscript.

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How to cite: Ola, A. 2020. Building a food-resilient city through urban agriculture: The case of Ilorin, Nigeria. Town and Regional Planning, no.77, pp. 89-102.

Dr. Akeem Bayonle Ola, Lecturer, Department of Urban and Regional Planning, Faculty of Environmental Sciences, University of Ilorin, Nigeria, P.M.B. 1515, Ilorin, Kwara State, Nigeria. Phone: +2348037991615, email: <[email protected]>

Building a food-resilient city through urban agriculture: The case of Ilorin, Nigeria

Akeem Ola





Abstract The rise in urban population, accompanied by growing poverty and hunger, has triggered debates on the relevance of urban agriculture in addressing the challenges of food insecurity in urban centres. This article examines the effects of urban planning practice on urban agriculture (UA) in Ilorin, Nigeria, and how it has contributed to improving the resilience of the city to food shock. Adopting a cross-sectional survey design, primary and secondary data were used. A structured questionnaire was used to obtain primary data from randomly selected urban farmers. Secondary data were obtained from the publications of the Central Bank of Nigeria, the National Bureau of Statistics, and the Food and Agricultural Organization. Data collected were analysed using descriptive statistical techniques. Respondents’ Agreement Index (RAI) was used to measure the variables influencing the performance of UA. Findings revealed that UA contributed 16.9% to meat/fish/egg requirements in the city; 4.5% to yam/cassava/potato requirements; 0.58% to vegetable requirements; 0.6% to fruit requirements, and 0.5% to grain requirements. RAI results indicated poor access to finance (0.93), limited land area (0.75), and lack of tenure security (0.44) as the dominant variables influencing the poor contribution of UA to food security. It is recommended that UA be integrated into urban planning and that more land for farming be provided. Keywords: Nutritional requirement, urban agriculture, urban planning, city resilience, food security

DIE BOU VAN ’N VOEDSELBESTANDE STAD DEUR STEDELIKE LANDBOU: DIE GEVAL VAN ILORIN, NIGERIËToenemende stedelike bevolking, tesame met groeiende armoede en honger, het debatte veroorsaak oor die belangrikheid van stedelike landbou om die uitdagings van voedselonsekerheid in stedelike sentrums aan te spreek. Hierdie artikel ondersoek die gevolge van stedelike beplanningspraktyk op stedelike landbou (UA) in Ilorin, Nigerië, en hoe dit daartoe bygedra het om die stad se veerkragtigheid vir voedselskok te verbeter. Die gebruik van ’n deursnee-opname-ontwerp is gebruik van primêre en sekondêre data. ’n Gestruktureerde vraelys is gebruik om primêre data van willekeurig geselekteerde stedelike boere te verkry. Sekondêre gegewens is verkry uit die publikasies van die Central Bank of Nigeria, die National Bureau of Statistics en die Food and Agricultural Organization. Data wat versamel is, is met behulp van beskrywende statistiese tegnieke ontleed. Respondente se

ooreenkomsindeks (RAI) is gebruik om die veranderlikes te meet wat die prestasie van UA beïnvloed. Bevindinge het getoon dat UA 16.9% bygedra het tot vleis-/vis-/eierbehoeftes in die stad; 4.5% tot yam-/cassava-/aartappelbehoeftes; 0.58% tot groentevereistes; 0.6% tot vrugtebehoeftes, en 0.5% tot graanbehoeftes. RAI-resultate het aangedui dat swak toegang tot finansiering (0.93), beperkte grondop-pervlakte (0.75) en gebrek aan verblyfsekerheid (0.44) die dominante veranderlikes was wat die swak bydrae van UA tot voedselsekerheid beïnvloed. Daar word aanbeveel dat UA in stedelike beplanning geïntegreer word en dat meer grond vir boerdery voorsien word.Sleutelwoorde: Voedings vereiste, stedelike landbou, stedelike beplan-ning, veerkragtigheid in die stad, voedselse kerheid

Ho aha toropo e matlafatsang lijo ka temo ea litoropong: Temohiso ea Ilorin, NigeriaKeketseho ea baahi ba litoropong, e tsamaeang le bofuma bo ntseng bo eketseha le tlala, e bakile likhang ka bohlokoa ba temo ea litoropong ho sebetsana le liqholotso tsa khaello ea lijo litsing tsa litoropo. Sengoliloeng sena se hlahloba litlamorao tsa ts’ebetso ea meralo ea litoropo mabapi le temo ea litoropong (UA) e Ilorin, Nigeria, le hore na e kentse letsoho joang ho ntlafatseng botsitso ba toropo khaellong ea lijo. Ka ts’ebeliso ea moralo oa phuputso ea likarolo tse fapaneng, lintlha tsa mathomo le tsa bobeli li sebelisitsoe. Lenane la lipotso le hlophisitsoeng le sebelisitsoe ho fumana lintlha tsa mantlha ho lihoai tsa litoropong tse khethiloeng ka tatellano. Lintlha tsa bobeli li fumanoe likhatisong tsa Banka e Kholo ea Nigeria, Ofisi ea Naha ea Lipalopalo, le Mokhatlo oa Lijo le Temo. Lintlha tse bokelitsoeng li ile tsa hlahlojoa ho sebelisoa mekhoa e hlalosang ea lipalo. Tataiso ea Tumellano ea Baarabeli (RAI) e sebelisitsoe ho lekanya mefuta e susumetsang ts’ebetso ea UA. Liphuputso li senotse hore UA e kentse 16.9% ho litlhoko tsa nama / tlhapi / mahe toropong; 4.5% ho ea ho litlhoko tsa yam / cassava / litapole; 0.58% ho latela litlhoko tsa meroho; 0,6% ho ea ho litlhoko tsa litholoana, le 0.5% ho litlhoko tsa lijo-thollo. Liphetho tsa RAI li bonts’itse phihlello e mpe ea lichelete

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(0.93), sebaka se fokolang sa mobu (0.75), le khaello ea polokeho ea ho ba moahi (0.44) e le mefuta e meholo e susumetsang monehelo o mobe oa UA ho ts’ireletso ea lijo. Ho khothaletsoa hore UA e kenyeletsoe morerong oa litoropo le hore ho fanoe ka mobu o mong oa temo.

1. INTRODUCTIONA defining feature of Nigeria’s urbanization in the 21st century is the rapid and unrelenting urban agglomeration, with large cities of over one million people in virtually every state of the country, including the Federal Capital Territory. While urbanization is regarded as one of the indices of development, in Nigeria it is accompanied by a myriad of social, economic, physical, and environmental problems (Ola, 2011: 76-78). This has led to the questioning of spatial planning’s effectiveness in managing this phenomenon. As the cities grow, there appear to be fewer solutions to its emerging challenges. More importantly, the horizontal urban expansion coupled with unabated population growth has resulted in the decline of urban carrying capacity and an increase in the vulnerability of individuals and communities in many of these cities to socio-economic and environmental hazards (Eguaroje, Alaga, Ogbole, Omolere, Alwadood & Kolawole, 2015: 152). Consequently, the resilience of these cities has been called to question. Urban resilience, a concept recently developed, is considered as the ability of a city to react, absorb, recover, and prepare for future shocks – economic, environmental, social, and institutional (Pike, Dawley & Tomaney, 2010: 64). The resilient city approach to urban management seeks to promote sustainable development, well-being, and inclusive growth (OECD, 2010: 8). With the emergence of the concept of resilience, the city’s strategy of coping with shocks transforms from passive resistance and a post-shock relief approach to active adaptation and risk assessment, better preparedness, and making use of early warning

systems (Ainuddin & Routray, 2012: 26-27; Berkes & Ross, 2013: 8). The major social challenges of Nigerian urbanization are that urban poverty, food insecurity, and malnutrition are increasing (Metu, Okeyika & Maduka, 2016: 6). These have led to a greater vulnerability of the country’s cities to food supply shock (Fudjumdjum, Filho & Desalegn, 2019: 1023). Thus, in recent times, food security has become a relevant issue, not only in Nigeria, but also across the globe in addressing urban resilience. Food security is a concept that has varying definitions. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) (1996: 19), food security exists when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life.

There has been heightened food insecurity in Nigeria, particularly in its urban centres, owing to the over-dependence of cities on rural food supplies (Mohammed & Charles, 2016: 35), along with unabated rural depopulation, the unrelenting increase in urban populations, and the current Buhari administration’s stance on reducing food imports through its recent closure of land borders to forestall food entering the country illegally (WFP, 2016: 68). Available data indicate that total yearly wheat production fell from 100,000 tons in 2007 to 60,000 tons in 2018 (Nzeka, 2018: 11), whereas the country’s population increased by roughly 40% (UN, 2017: 32). A study conducted in Lagos by Roberts, Osadare and Inem (2019: 885) revealed that only 33.8% of urban households are food secure, 45.1% are food insecure without hunger, and 21.1% are food insecure with hunger. Estimates by Nzeka (2018: 24-27) suggest that 80% of the available food items in urban centres is supplied by rural areas, despite their dwindling farming population.

Various studies have shown that urban agriculture (UA) (the production of food in urban environments) contributes to cities’ resilience by reducing the vulnerabilities

of urban dwellers to food shock (FAO, 2016: 12; Famine and Early Warning System Network, 2016: 7). It encompasses farming in public/semi-public spaces (schools, public rights-of-way and boulevards, and community gardens). Private property (backyards, rooftop, and balcony) also accommodates UA (Abu & Soom, 2016: 55). Other agriculture types being conducted in the city include hydroponic, aquaculture, keeping poultry, rabbits, and bees; greenhouses; permaculture design in parks; public orchards or food forests, and agricultural parks (La Rosa, Barbarossa, Privitera & Martinico, 2014: 296). Urban agriculture is not a new phenomenon in Nigeria (Adelekan, Olajide-Taiwo, Ayorinde, Ajayi & Babajide, 2014: 19), but the rate of urbanization and the need to stem the tide of food insecurity have compelled governments and researchers to seek ways of improving and encouraging labour entrance into the sector.

The modern urban planning system in Nigeria appears to favour other land uses at the expense of agricultural land in the city. This can be attributed to the constraints imposed by the planning laws, especially the Land Use Act No. 29 of 1978 (Federal Republic of Nigeria, 1978: 2) and the Urban and Regional Planning Law Decree No. 88 of 1992 (FRN, 1992: 8), which became an act of parliament in 2004, with minimal alteration. For instance, both laws prohibit the cultivation of annual and perennial crops, as well as the raising of livestock in urban areas. Despite these legal constraints, UA has continued to thrive in Nigeria.

This article thus examines how land-use planning has facilitated the practice of UA in Ilorin, Kwara State, Nigeria, and how it has contributed to improving the city’s resilience to food shock. Ilorin is centrally located and has unique vegetation and edaphic characteristics that provide opportunities for flourishing agricultural practices. The city has also become a major refuge for displaced people from the northern part of Nigeria following

Akeem Ola • Building a food-resilient city through urban agriculture: The case of Ilorin, Nigeria

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security challenges bedevilling that region, leading to the city’s rapid population growth, with attendant food shortages and increased vulnerability to food shock.


2.1 Climate change, urban agriculture, and city resilience

An increase in climate change-related extreme weather events and natural disasters, as well as chronic shocks, impact on food production, processing, and distribution along the entire food supply chain. Cities are highly vulnerable to the disruption in critical (food) supplies, and climate change exacerbates this vulnerability (FAO, 2011: 48). Urban economies suffer as rural agricultural production is adversely affected by storms, floods, shifting seasonal patterns, droughts, or water scarcity. At the same time, changing temperature and precipitation patterns affect what crops can be grown in a given locale (Nelson, Adger & Brown, 2007: 402). Increasing food prices resulting from disruptions in food supply directly impact on consumers in urban areas, because they are almost entirely dependent on purchasing (rather than growing) their food. Vulnerable populations who are already experiencing, or at risk from food insecurity are the hardest hit (FAO, 2012: 116). Furthermore, the effects of climate change on productivity in certain rural areas can result in increased migration to cities for economic or environmental reasons, leading to the accelerated growth of slum areas.

There is a growing awareness that the combined effects of climate change, rapid urbanization, and continued population growth have the potential to undermine the resilience of cities across the globe to food shock. Increasingly, the significance of city resilience and the strong connection between resilience and the sustainability of socio-ecological systems is recognized (Dubbeling, Campbell, Hoekstra & Van Veehuizen, 2009: 5). Resilience

is a measure of a household, city, or nation’s ability to absorb shocks and stresses (Dubbeling et al., 2009: 11). Resilient cities are characterized by increased self-reliance and their capacity to manage or bounce back from stresses or disastrous events (De Zeeuw, Van Veenhuizen & Dubbeling, 2011: 153-154). Most importantly, UA is promoted as a more permanent feature in sustainable city planning. Greater amounts of carbon are sequestered in green growing spaces, while urban forests and green roofs help reduce urban temperatures (Newman, Beatley & Boyer, 2008: 68).

UA is conceptualized as the production of food (for example, vegetables, fruit, meat, eggs, milk, fish, and non-food items such as fuel, herbs, ornamental plants, tree seedlings, and flowers) within the urban area and its periphery, for home consumption and/or for the urban market, and related small-scale processing and marketing activities (FAO, 2018: 15-17). UA takes place on private, leased, or rented land in peri-urban areas, in backyards, on rooftops, on vacant public lands such as industrial parks, school grounds, roadsides, in prisons and other institutions as well as ponds, lakes, and rivers (Mohammed & Charles, 2016: 38). This is regarded as a way to increase resilience by co-locating food production with consumption (Mohammed & Charles, 2016: 43). Blay-Palmer, Santini, Dubbeling, Renting, Taguchi and Giordano (2018: 10) observed that UA is a means to shorten supply chains that are highly vulnerable to climate-related impacts and resource scarcity because of their long global links.

The global template for development (the Sustainable Development Goals [SDGs]) emphasizes the need to “[m]ake cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient, and sustainable” (SDG 11). Goal 1 advocates sustainable agriculture to help reduce poverty; goal 2 focuses on improving nutrition and reducing hunger; goal 12 asks the global community to ensure sustainable consumption and production patterns,

and goal 13 requests the countries of the world to combat climate change and its impacts. These SDGs are all geared towards achieving the goal of building inclusive, safe, resilient, and sustainable cities (UN, 2015: 12). Similarly, the Paris COP21 agreement of 2015 (UN, 2016: 2-3) recognizes the fundamental priority of safeguarding food security and ending hunger and the vulnerabilities of food production systems to the impacts of climate change. Thus, building resilience in a city requires an integrated and ecosystem-based approach that considers mitigation (for example, strategies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions), adaptation (for example, reducing the vulnerability to climate change), and development (such as poverty alleviation, income generation, and food security) (World Bank, 2010: 12). It has been variously argued that, as an integral part of the urban socio-economic and ecological system, UA is a suitable strategy to address this triple challenge (Mougeot, 2000: 102; Tuts, 2011: 9). Napawan (2016: 26) emphasized the role of UA in making cities self-reliant through local food systems (local markets and food security through cooperatives of local producers).

2.2 Integrating urban agriculture into urban planning

The concept adopted for this study advocates for the integration of UA into urban planning. The Continuous Productive Urban Landscapes (CPULs) concept (Viljoen, Bohn & Howe, 2005: 39) was consequently adopted to explain how this can be achieved. The CPULs concept argues for citywide networks of green and productive corridors. It was conceptualized as open landscapes productive in economical, sociological, and environmental terms, running continuously through the built urban environment, thereby connecting all kinds of existing inner-city open spaces and relating, finally, to the surrounding rural area. CPULs offer space for leisure and recreational activities, access routes, urban green lungs, and so on. But, most uniquely, they are productive by

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providing open space for UA, for the inner-urban and peri-urban growth of food (Viljoen et al., 2005: 41). CPULs include places for food production, wildlife habitat, and social activities. They connect such places by providing corridors for wildlife and human beings to travel across the city, and for airflow to cool the city (Viljoen & Wiskerke, 2012: 44).

Building on the concept of CPULs, Solomon (2012: 133) put forward the foodscape concept, which he originally referred to as Urbaniahoeve, i.e. the city as a farmyard. Foodscape describes a physical landscape, in which horticultural knowledge, cultural practice, food-system infrastructure, and a real food-producing biotope are co-located (Solomon, 2012: 135). The central idea of the concept is that it is possible to introduce edible landscapes into public and private spaces in such a way that they restore the health of human beings and other organisms that engage with them. The maintenance of such landscapes largely involves harvesting the produce. As observed by Viljoen and Howe (2012: 280), CPULs advocate for the integration of people, their living environments, and food. The central claim of CPULs is that urban food systems play an integral role in sustainable urban systems and need to be integrated with urban ecological, cultural, and economic systems. The concept’s relevance to this study is that it proposes the integration of green space with a wide range of ecosystem services that include but are not confined to the provision of food. It also provides a way to consider the city as a whole, while identifying places to make changes in that whole, which has parallels with resilience-building methods.

2.3 Assessing Nigeria’s food security

The Global Food Security Index (GFSI), published in 2018, indicates that Nigeria’s food security performance was poor. The country’s score deteriorated by 1.1 points across the three core

pillars (availability, access, and utilization) of food security to 38 points compared with the previous year, which is well below the average of 58.4 points of the 113 countries considered across the globe, ranking Nigeria in 94th position. Nigeria ranks 101 in affordability; 100 in availability, and 77 in quality and safety. Consequently, Nigeria’s overall performance in the GFSI for 2018 was rated “Weak”, even as its nutritional standards and volatility of agriculture production were “Very Good” (Economist Intelligence Unit, 2018: 31-33). A report published by the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UNOCHA) shows increased food insecurity in the Boko Haram insurgents’ enclaves of Borno, Adamawa, and Yobe states between 1 June and 31 August 2019 (UNOCHA, 2019: 2). According to the report, the total number of people facing food insecurity in these states rose to 3 million from 2.7 million (UNOCHA, 2019: 8).

In 2016, the Nigerian government estimated in its Agricultural Promotion Policy (2016-2020) that there were supply gaps in 13 key crops and activities. For instance, out of 6.3 million tonnes of rice demanded, Nigeria was able to supply only 2.3 million tonnes, less than half of what could make rice affordable in the country going by its definitions. Demand for wheat was 4.7 million tonnes, but Nigeria could only supply 0.06 million tonnes, representing 1.3% of the total demand, while out of 2.7 million tonnes of fish demanded, only 0.8 million tonnes (29.6%) were supplied (FMARD, 2016: 32). A similar trend was observed for other consumables such as yam, tomatoes, cocoa, cotton, sorghum, milk, chicken, soya beans, maize, and palm oil. The gap between supply and demand is an indication that, with Nigeria’s 3.2% annual population growth rate (NBS, 2017: 6), the country’s ability to produce enough food to meet the needs of its rapidly growing population is under serious pressure.

The Nigerian food Consumer Price Index (CPI) published by the National Bureau of Statistics gives insight into the affordability of food items in Nigeria. Food CPI increased by 81% from May 2015 to July 2019, while the Naira lost 56.6% of its value from N196/$ to N306.9/$ within the same period (NBS, 2019: 9; CBN, 2020: 14). These statistics indicate that the Nigerians’ food purchasing power and income have weakened over time, thereby undermining their capacity to afford the food items as they used to. Furthermore, the World Poverty Clock, a web platform designed to provide real-time poverty estimates, shows that roughly 47.7% of Nigerians cannot afford $59.6 in a month vis-à-vis $83.5 required to buy a food basket in 2016 (Kharas, 2017: 6-8). Therefore, Nigeria does not meet any of the components that make a country food secure: food availability, access, utilization, and stability, as outlined by the FAO.

3. THE STUDY AREAThe city of Ilorin (8, 30°N; 4,35ᴼE) is the seventh-largest city in Nigeria, with a 2019 projected population of 814,192 (National Bureau of Statistics, 2019: 6). It is the capital of Kwara State. Ilorin’s climate is characterized by wet and dry seasons: the wet season’s (March to November) annual precipitation ranges from 1000 mm to 1500 mm (Fabiyi & Ashaolu, 2015: 17). The mean daily temperature ranges from 25°C in January to 27.5°C in May. Ilorin has Guinea savannah vegetation with riparian woodland along the bank of the Asa River, which flows from the northern end of the city southwards (World Atlas, 2019: 1).

Ilorin has a fertile sandy-loam soil type, which favours particular species of trees and grasses such as Acacia spp, Terminalia spp, Afzelia Africana, Parkia spp, and Vitellaria paradoxa (shea butter) (Olaoye & Oloruntoyin, 2014: 3-5). The city is well watered by the various tributaries of the Niger River which traverse its valleys, between low hills (Afolabi, Olutomilola & Ishaki,


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2018: 4). Collectively, these features provide an environment suitable for farming, hunting, and animal husbandry and perhaps explain why various groups of people and occupational activities have migrated to and settled in the area over time.

Kwara State is strategically located at the geographical and cultural confluence of the North and South, bounded in the south by the Oyo and Osun States, in the north by the Niger State, toward the east by the Kogi State and toward the west by the Benin Republic (Figure 1). Ilorin is 300km from Lagos and the coastline, 160km from Ibadan, Africa’s largest indigenous city, and 300km from the Federal Capital, Abuja (Aderamo, 2007). Ilorin was developed as an administrative centre for the Kwara State, but both economic and social activities have greatly influenced its growth in recent times. A good road network links Ilorin with many other major cities.

The choice of Ilorin was informed by the city’s regional (central)

location, sharing boundaries with the North-West and South-West geopolitical zones of the country as well as its unique vegetation and edaphic characteristics that provide opportunities for flourishing agricultural practices. Consequent upon the security challenges bedevilling the entire northern part of Nigeria and its attendant mass exodus of displaced people from the region, Ilorin, with its unique location, has been a major regional centre of refuge for displaced people. This has led to the rapid growth in the city’s population and the attendant food shortage and increased vulnerability to food shock (Omotesho, Muhammad-Lawal & Ismaila, 2014: 359).

4. METHODOLOGYThis study examines how land-use planning impacts on the practice of UA in Ilorin City, Nigeria, and identifies how UA contributes to achieving the resilience of the city to food shock. A mixed-methods

approach was adopted to empirically analyse the role of UA in building a resilient urban community (University of Kansas, 2016: 4). This involved the collection, analysis, and merging of both quantitative and qualitative data. Quantitative data were essentially obtained from the urban farmers sampled in the city, whereas qualitative data were the outcomes of the researcher’s personal observations.

4.1 Sampling method and sizeIlorin is made up of three Local Government Areas (LGAs), namely Ilorin South, Ilorin East, and Ilorin West. Ilorin West LGA has 13 political wards, while the two other LGAs each have 12 wards (INEC, 2015: 35-38). Preliminary investigations revealed that urban agricultural practices are carried out on the fringes of these wards in all the LGAs. Consequently, three wards were purposively selected for the survey from each LGA, where the rate of agricultural practice was very

network links Ilorin with many other major cities.

Figure Figure 1: Ilorin within the geographical setting of Nigeria

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high (Bernard, 2000: 73-75). These are Adewole, Oko-erin, and Oloje wards for Ilorin West LGA; AkanbiI, Oke-ogun, and Okaka II wards for Ilorin South LGA, and Okeoyi/okeose/alalubosa, Zango, and Agbeyangi/gbadamu/osin wards for Ilorin East.

A unique attribute of the farmers is that, while some did register with the government and with associations of urban farmers, some did not. Therefore, to have a fairly reliable figure of the farmers, the researcher, with the help of some field assistants, decided to enumerate the unregistered farmers using the snowball technique. Consequently, a total of 207 urban farmers were identified in the study area between 15 October 2019 and 20 November 2019, with Ilorin South having 52 farmers, Ilorin East having 91, and Ilorin West having 64. The data obtained from the State Ministry of Agriculture, the National Fadama Project, and the Farmers’ Association revealed that there are 398 registered farmers in the three LGAs with 157, 135, and 106 in Ilorin South, Ilorin East, and Ilorin West, respectively. Thus, a total of 605 farmers were operating in Ilorin. Fifty percent (50%) of the farmers (i.e. 303 farmers) were randomly selected for the survey, using picking by ballot in each of the wards across the three LGAs. The breakdown is as follows: Ilorin South – 105; Ilorin East – 113, and Ilorin West – 85. The 50% samples fall within the purview of Neuman’s (1994: 163) postulation that a 30% sample size for a homogeneous population of less than 1,000 is suitable for a survey at 95% confidence level, assuming a +/-5% error margin.

4.2 Data collectionA cross-sectional survey design was used for this study, which involved the administration of a set of structured questionnaires and observations checklist. To examine the state of urban agricultural practices, the contribution of UA to food security in Ilorin and factors influencing the percentage contribution of UA to food security, a set of pre-tested structured

questionnaires was administered on the sampled 303 urban farmers in the study area between 15 and 24 July 2019. The questionnaire included 32 tick-box and 16 open-ended questions in six parts. Part one on the socio-economic characteristics of the urban farmers included questions on gender, age, education, income, and household sizes. Part two included questions on the state of urban agricultural practices as well as questions on the mode of engagement of urban farming, years of practising urban farming, access to training in urban farming, access to agricultural extension services, size of farms, ownership of farmland, location of the farm, the distance of farmland to residences, and mode of transport to farms. Part three sought answers on crops, livestock, and other production elements and included questions on the types of livestock, crop, fruits, and mixed farming being practised. Part four covered other aspects of urban agricultural practices and included questions on agricultural mechanization, irrigation farming, use of storage facilities, and sale of farm produce. Part five focused on the contribution of U to food security and included questions on average annual livestock, aquaculture, egg, crop, fruits, and tuber production by the farmers. Part six sought clarity on the factors influencing the contribution of UA to food security and included questions on access to finance, land area, security of tenure, seasonal rainfall fluctuation, theft, and knowledge of modern techniques of agriculture. The questionnaires were administered to 303 urban farmers, who were asked to tick the appropriate answers where options were supplied, while they were given the liberty to provide answers to the open-ended questions.

During the period of the survey, the spatial patterns of urban farming were observed using an observation checklist. The checklist was designed to collect information on the specific locations of the urban farms in relation to the city’s morphology. All the 303 copies of the questionnaires

administered were satisfactorily completed and returned for analysis.

4.3 Data analysis and interpretation of findings

The data collected were processed in the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) version 21 software, where two analytical statistics were employed to summarize data and make inferences. First, univariate descriptive statistics involving frequency and percentages were used to report the socio-economic profile of urban farmers. Then, the Respondents’ Agreement Index (RAI) was used to measure the factors influencing UA’s contribution to food security. Six variables that could influence low productivity were identified, including limited land area, poor access to finance, seasonal fluctuation in rainfall, poor knowledge of modern farming techniques, theft of farm produce prior to harvest, and lack of tenure security. We assume that the level of agreement of the respondents would indicate the level of influence these variables have on the low contribution of UA in the study area. To calculate the RAI, the sampled farmers were instructed to rate each variable using one of the five ratings: Strongly Agree (SA) (5), Agree (A) (4), Just Agree (JA) (3), Disagree (DA) (2), and Strongly Disagree (SD) (1). The summation of weight value (SWV) for each variable was obtained through the addition of the products of responses for each rating of the variable and their respective weight values. Mathematically, this is expressed as:

SWV = ∑5i=1XiYi equation (1)

Where: SWV is the summation of weight value;

Xi is the respondents’ rating of a particular variable influencing low productivity;

Yi is the weight value assigned to each variable.

The respondents’ agreement index (RAI) for each variable is arrived at by dividing the summation of weight value by the addition of the number


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of respondents to each of the five ratings. This is expressed as:

RAI = SWV. equation (2)

∑5i=1 Pi

The information from the observation checklist was recorded on a piece of paper and reported directly in the article.

4.4. LimitationsThe small sample size cannot be generalized across Nigeria or other countries. Therefore, the results of this study are limited to the research area. In addition, the fact that some farmers did not formally register with the Government led to the physical enumeration of farmers with the possibility of underestimation of the farmers.

5. FINDINGS AND DISCUSSION

5.1 Spatial patterns of urban agriculture in Ilorin

The various land uses that also accommodate UA in the city include residential, public/semi-public land,

industrial, floodplains, and peri-urban areas. Farming takes place in many low- and medium-density residential neighbourhoods in Ilorin. This includes low-density areas such as GRA, Adewole, and Judges Quarters, and medium-density neighbourhoods such as Tanke, Oke-odo, Basin, Egbejila, Gaa Odoota, and Oloje. Public/semi-public land uses include the University of Ilorin, Kwara State Polytechnic, Kwara State College of Education, University of Ilorin Teaching Hospital, military and police barracks, Niger River Basin Development Authority, and some secondary schools. In addition, a number of industrial areas in the city have vacant lands that are being cultivated. Industrial zones such as Ajewole and Cam Wire are particularly known for UA. Floodplains are equally put to use for agricultural purposes in the city. Areas such as Asa dam, Agba dam, and the neighbourhoods along Oyan (the longest tributary of the River Niger) are witnessing intense agricultural activities. Extensive and intensive agricultural practices are also conducted in the city’s peri-urban

areas such as Oloje, Danialu, airport, and Oke-oyi (Figure 2).

Farming is partly encouraged in the low- and medium-density areas by the relative sizes of plots. For instance, the lot sizes in the low-density residential areas are 1,200m2, whereas in medium-density neighbourhoods the minimum lot size is 787m2. Public/semi-public uses attract agriculture, because most of them have less than 50% of their lot developed. Farming in these areas is mostly practised by individuals, but the management of some institutions such as the University of Ilorin and Kwara State Polytechnic equally farmed part of their land. The slow process of industrialization in Ilorin, leading to the slow development of industrial areas, appears to encourage farming there. Factory workers are mostly involved in farming in these areas, because many of them live around the areas and can easily obtain the permission of the factory management to cultivate the available open spaces around the factory buildings. The various tributaries of the Niger River within

Figure 2: Spatial pattern of agricultural sites in IlorinSource: Author’s field survey, 2019

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Ilorin provide suitable conditions for irrigation farming, especially during the dry season. This explains why the floodplains are attractive to a number of urban farmers in the city. The fact that these areas are not suitable for building and are usually ignored by the government and land speculators influences the practice of UA there.

5.2 The state of urban agricultural practices in Ilorin

A large percentage (65.4%) of the respondents were full-time farmers, with only 18.4% having undergone special training in urban farming offered by the Kwara State Ministry of Agriculture. Approximately 39.3% of the sampled farmers had access to agricultural extension

services provided by the Kwara State Government, and half (49.8%) of them have practised UA for between 5 and 15 years (Figure 3).

The farmers had limited access to adequate space for farming, as almost half (48.1%) of the respondents operated on a plot area of less than 540m2. This implies that farmland per person is too small and can hardly allow large-scale production. This probably explains why many of the crop farmers were merely subsistence. Analysis of landownership among the farmers revealed a widespread of leasing (41.2%) and owner-occupier (34.8%). This amplifies Stone’s (2016) position that lack of tenure security portends grave danger for expansion and development of UA. Most (85.0%) of

these agricultural lands were open fields located outside the residential compounds of the farmers, with 60.7% having their farms within their neighbourhoods and 39.3% having their farms outside their neighbourhoods. However, ove half (48.4%) of the respondents travelled a distance of more than 5km to their farms, and 62.7% reached their farms using motorized transport (Figure 3).

Issues discussed are very central to building a food-resilient city. It is gratifying to note that some of the variables are on the positive side. This includes the fact that many of the farmers were into full-time farming, have appreciable years of experience in farming, and had their farms within their residential neighbourhoods. These variables indicate the quality and readiness of the farmers to expand if given the opportunity. However, the basic variables that can aid the farmers’ operation are on the negative side. These include farm size (which is an index of access to adequate land), training (to keep the farmers abreast of modern techniques of farming), and poor access to extension services. Thus, despite the experience and readiness of the farmers, the enabling environment is lacking. This suggests that UA as currently practised in Ilorin may be incapable of building the city’s ability to withstand and cope with food shocks.

5.3 Crops, livestock, and other production elements

A substantial percentage (50.3%) of the sampled farmers practised livestock farming and aquaculture; 27.2% engaged in crop farming; 13.2% practised mixed farming (i.e. both crop and livestock farming); 5.7% focused solely on vegetable farming, while 3.6% were into fruit farming (Figure 4). This confirms the assertions of earlier studies that considered UA to be largely characterized by the rearing of animals and the growing of plants (Adelekan et al., 2014: 42; RUAF, 2004: 76).

Figure 3: State of urban agriculture

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Figure 3: State of urban agricultureAdelekan et al., 2014: 42; RUAF, 2004: 76).

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Figure 4: Livestock and other production elements


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The livestock farmers (50.3%) focused on poultry, cattle, sheep, and goats that were the common livestock being reared, although 14.3% of the farmers focused mainly on aquaculture. The poultry farmers accounted for 41.2% of the livestock farmers, the cattle herders accounted for 27.2%, while 17.3% farmed with sheep and goats. Common crops grown by the crop farmers were gains (millet and maize) and tubers (yam, cassava, and potato). All the crop farmers practised mixed cropping. Thus, of the 27.2% farmers who practised crop farming, 41.1% grew maize and cassava; 21.4% grew millet and cassava; 18.5% grew potato and millet; 11.6% grew yam and cassava, and 7.4% grew maize and yam. In addition, common fruit farms found in the area were cashew and mango. Some 73.2% and 26.8% of the fruit farmers were into cashew and mango farming, respectively. Those practising mixed farming (13.2%) can be disaggregated as follows: poultry and yam farming (57.4%); poultry and maize farming (29.5%); poultry and vegetable farming (8.5%), and poultry and millet farming (4.6%) (Figure 4). Similar patterns of farming were reported in Ibadan (Nigeria) by Adelekan et al. (2014: 51) and in Tamale (Ghana) by Gyasi, Fosu, Kranjac-Berisavljevic, Mensah, Obeng, Yiran and Fuseini (2014: 27-28), respectively.

5.4 Other aspects of urban agriculture

Mechanization is an important requirement of agricultural practice. Evidence suggests that mechanization has a major impact on the level of cultivated land, agricultural productivity, demand and supply of farm labour, profitability and ultimately improving the livelihoods of farmers (FAO & UNIDO, 2008: 179; Schmitz & Moss, 2015: 23). There was limited use of modern machinery among the sampled farmers, as 94.7% of the farmers were not practising agricultural mechanization. Only 5.3% of the respondents who were mainly poultry farmers used modern machinery in their operation (Figure 5). It appears that the limited

size of farmland among the crop farmers prevented some of them from engaging in mechanized farming.

The seasonal pattern of rainfall influenced some of the farmers (18.7%) to engage in irrigation farming, especially during the dry season. It should be noted that all the farmers who practised irrigation farming had their farms along the river course and water dam in the city. An essential aspect of farming is having storage facilities to preserve and store excess produce against damage and destruction by adverse weather and rodents, respectively. Approximately 41.5% of the farmers had storage facilities, of whom poultry/aquaculture farmers accounted for 97.8% and crop farmers 2.2% (Figure 5). Storage facilities mostly used by the poultry farmers were crates, egg-boxes, and freezers. Aquaculture farmers used mostly refrigerators and freezers, while crop farmers used silos. The economic motive has been identified as a causative factor in labour entrance into urban agricultural practices (Lawal & Aliu, 2012: 94; Sulaiman, Olubunmi, Balogun & Falegbe, 2015: 67). This explains why 47% of the respondents sold a substantial part of their produce to the public, while 53% of them practised mainly subsistence farming (Figure 5).

The combination of mechanized farming, irrigation farming, and the use of storage facilities results in an abundance of food for consumption and export all year round. With these practices, only a small proportion of the population is required to feed a city/country, while their exports will boost the country’s international trade. The inadequacy of these in Ilorin points to the fact that the city is less secure to food shocks.

5.5 Contributions of urban agriculture to food security in Ilorin

One of the principal foci of this work is to examine the contribution of UA to achieving food security in the city of Ilorin. Table 1 presents the quantity of livestock, fish, and egg produced annually by urban farmers in the city. Poultry products including egg constituted the highest quantity of livestock products. This may not be unconnected with the higher number of farmers operating in the poultry sector and the fact that poultry production rate is naturally the highest among the livestock animals, although it may not give the highest quantity of meat.

Table 2 presents the quantity of grains, vegetables, tubers, and fruits produced annually. A higher number of farmers focused on the production of maize rather than millet in the

Figure 5: Other aspects

94.7

5.3

100

18.7

81.3 10041.5 58.5

100 97.8

2.2

10047 53

100

050

100150200250300350

Yes No

Total Yes No

Total Yes No

Total

Poult

ry/aq

uacu

lture

Crop

Total Yes No

Total

Agric. mechanization Farm irrigation Use of storage facilities Farmers using storagefacilities

Sale of farm produce

Mea

sure

men

t

Variables

Other aspects of urban agriculture

Frequency Percentage %

Figure 5: Other aspects of urban agriculture

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0.4%, respectively, of the people’s requirements. The study revealed a very low contribution of UA in meeting the nutritional needs of city dwellers. This lends credence to the earlier observations that all the indices that can position UA as the most important factor for building the resilience of Ilorin to food shock are simply lacking.

Note: DNRP – Daily Nutritional Requirement per Person; ANRP – Annual Nutritional Requirement/Person; ASUA – Amount Supplied by Urban Agriculture; % SUA – Percentage Supplied by Urban Agriculture.

The nutritional requirements were calculated based on the FAO/WHO recommendations of DNRP as follows: Meat (0.05kg); Maize/Millet (0.042kg); Vegetable (0.11kg); Fruits (0.13kg); Yam/Cassava/Potato (0.042kg). Note that the calculation was based on the 2020 projected population of Ilorin which is 950,000.

5.6 Factors accounting for low contribution of urban agriculture to food security in Ilorin

While a number of studies have identified low contributions of UA to food security especially in developing countries (WFP, 2016: 71-74; Metu et al., 2016: 8-9; Sulaiman et al., 2015: 66), specific factors influencing this phenomenon were examined in relation to the study area and the result is presented in Table 4. RAI is a technique of analysis that rates factors against a scale, in order to assess the significance of each factor. The scale is then transformed into RAI for each factor, in order to determine the ranking of the different factors. RAI is computed using the formula presented in section 4.3.

As shown in Table 4, the highest RAI was 4.51 and the lowest was 2.60. Therefore, the deviations around the mean of the highest and lowest RAI were 0.93 and -0.98, respectively. The variables with positive deviations around the mean (i.e. RAI) were the variables considered by the sampled farmers to be the leading causes of the low contribution of UA to food

Table 1: Urban livestock produce in Ilorin

Livestock Average no. per farmer

Annual rate of increase/farmer/yr No. of farmers Total production/

yr (kg)Poultry 100 1,000 126 126,000Goats/sheep 20 30 66 1,980Cattle 20 20 113 2,260Fish 200 1,000 44 44,000Egg 60/day 21,900 126 2,759,400Total 2,933,640

Table 2: Urban crop and fruit produce in Ilorin

Crop types Frequency of growth per year

Average annual yield per farmer

(kg)No. of farmers Production(kg)

Maize 2 600 92 55,200Millet 2 350 39 13,650Vegetable 3 5,390 41 220,990Yam 2 1,800 76 136,800Potato 1 1,200 30 36,000Cassava 1 4,000 122 488,000Cashew 1 12,000 16 192,000Mango 1 15,500 6 90,000

Table 3: Nutritional requirements of urban dwellers and % contribution by UA in Ilorin

Food Item DNR (kg) MNR (kg) ANRP (kg) ASUA (kg) % SUAMeat/Fish/Egg 47,500 1,425,000 17,337,500 2,933,640 16.92Maize/Millet 39,900 119,7000 14,563,50 68,850 0.47Vegetable 104,500 313,5000 38,142,50 220,990 0.58Fruits 123,500 3,705,000 45,077,500 282,000 0.63Yam/Cassava/Potato 39,900 1,197,000 14,563,500 660,800 4.54

Table 4: Respondents’ Agreement Index (RAI)

S/N Factors influencing low contribution

(5) - Strongly agree – (1) Strongly disagree (N = 303) SWV RAI(MS) MD(RAI)

5 4 3 2 1

1 Poor access to finance 163 57 33 0 0 1142 4.51 0.93

2 Limited land area 110 94 32 0 0 1022 4.33 0.75

3 Lack of tenure security 132 90 51 38 0 1249 4.02 0.44

4 Seasonal fluctuation in rainfall 51 92 76 100 21 1072 3.15 -0.43

5 Theft 68 74 31 87 78 981 2.90 -0.68

6 Knowledge of modern techniques 22 37 29 83 41 552 2.60 -0.98

Average RAI(MS) (composite score) 3.58

grain subsector, while cassava was produced more than other tuber crops in the tuber subsector. In addition, more farmers engaged in cashew production than in mango in the fruits subsector. The higher economic value and ready market for cashew compared to mango in the area appear to be responsible for this trend. There are a number of cashew processing factories in

the city that purchased the cashew nuts for processing and export to other countries in the world.

As shown in Table 3, UA accounted for 16.9% of the meat, fish, and egg requirements of city dwellers. This is followed by 4.5% contribution to tuber requirements of the people, while fruits, vegetables, and grains accounted for 0.6%, 0.5%, and


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requirements in the study area. These variables were poor access to finance (0.93); limited land area (0.75), and lack of tenure security (0.44). The variables with negative deviations around the mean were those considered not to be the dominant/principal factors influencing the low contribution of UA to food security. The farmers showed a lower level of agreement on them. Such variables include poor knowledge of modern techniques of agriculture (-0.98); theft (-0.68), and seasonal fluctuation in rainfall (-0.43). The average RAI of 3.58 indicates that all respondents, on average, ‘agree’ that all 6 factors influence the low contribution of UA to food security.

Evidence from the literature indicates that spatial planning decisions in Ilorin, like in any city in Nigeria, have been guided largely by political and economic considerations. This has resulted in haphazard development and stimulated over-building, thus leading to inadequate land being available for agriculture. The recent attempt by the Kwara State Government to prepare a master plan for the city is a step in the right direction, but an imminent failure awaits the project, because the Chairman and many members of the planning committee were geographers, while physical planners were not accorded vantage role in the scheme of things. This study revealed that the less coordinated approach to urban planning in the city has given rise to inadequate green space for UA, despite the interest of some urban dwellers in this sector. The lack of adequate space has partly led to the minimal contribution of UA to the nutritional needs of the residents.

6. CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS

As in other countries, urban planning practice is shaped by the quality of available legislation, the response of physical planners to emerging urban problems, and the willingness of the political leaders to oblige the physical planners. Results show that the major constraint to efficient urban agricultural practice in Nigeria

is the Planning Law Decree 88 of 1992 and the Land Use Act No. 29 of 1978, because they have ensured that the planning response to urban issues is very slow, lacks proper coordination, and is not always in tune with the modern approach required to address most of these problems. Since the emergence of Ilorin as the state capital in 1975, no master plan has been prepared to guide the city’s development. This study thus concludes that, presently, Ilorin does not have the resilience to food shocks. The implication of this is that the city may not be able to meet the five relevant SDGs highlighted earlier. This portends grave dangers for the socio-economic stability of not only the city but also of the entire State, thereby undermining the government’s efforts to achieve a peaceful and egalitarian society. What is to be done? The following strategies may be adopted.

• There is a need to integrate UA into the planning and design of the city. UA is not usually factored into city planning as a result of the false notion that real agriculture takes place in rural areas only. But this study has shown that real agriculture can take place in urban areas, if the land is made available for the purpose. Ilorin has a particularly vast expanse of undeveloped, arable land. Thus, the current attempt by the Kwara State Government to prepare a master plan for the city of Ilorin presents a good opportunity to achieve this purpose. Ample greenbelt zones should be provided in the plan to cater to agricultural purposes and to control urban development activities in the city. To effectively position greenbelt zones in the city design, Viljoen et al.’s (2005: 39) Continuous Productive Urban Landscapes concept comes in handy.

• The services of agricultural extension workers in offering technical advice and training for farmers should be intensified and restructured to achieve maximum coverage of the farmers in

the city. The training should focus on modern agricultural techniques such as mechanized farming, soil-erosion control, and bio-intensive farming practices to enhance soil fertility, check soil degradation, and make optimal use of urban land made available for this purpose.

• A boost in urban agricultural productivity and output is achievable if farmers have easy access to modern farm machinery such as tractors, harvesters, sprayers, and so on, and farm inputs such as pesticides, improved seedlings, organic fertilizers, and so on. To ensure this, farmers’ adequate access to finance must be guaranteed. Despite some federal government-owned agricultural financing organizations (such as the Nigeria Agricultural Development Bank) being present in the country, these establishments usually require stringent conditions for farmers to access loans. These effectively inhibit many indigent farmers to access these loans. Thus, the financial establishments need to evolve realistic conditions of accessing loans and work with the Kwara State’s Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers’ Association in Ilorin to ensure adequate coverage of loan facilities and recovery arrangements.

• Theft of agricultural products on the farms should be squarely addressed by the government. Because the Nigerian security agencies are overstretched as a result of current security challenges in the country, the establishment of an outfit to be probably named ‘Farm Security Corps’ by the Kwara State Government may be required. The existence of such an outfit will undoubtedly reduce the menace, thereby encouraging farmers to produce more and more farmers to join the urban agricultural sector.

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• Rooftop gardening has been found to contribute significantly to food security. A substantial quantity of food in Kathmandu Metropolitan Municipality (Nepal) comes from rooftop gardening (Dubbeling, Veenhuizen & Halliday, 2019: 37). This initiative can be adopted in Ilorin, and by extension other parts of Nigeria. Considering the nature of roofing in the city, the existing building code should be reviewed to accommodate agriculture-permissive roofs. Residents should also be sensitized to the significance of rooftop gardening.

• To achieve purposeful and sustainable UA, the State Government through the State Planning Bureau and Agriculture Ministry must develop a comprehensive municipal UA and food security policy and programme that should facilitate the integration of UA into climate-change adaptation and disaster-management strategies of the city.

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How to cite: van Niekerk, W., Pieterse, A. & le Roux, A. 2020. Introducing the Green Book: A practical planning tool for adapting South African settlements to climate change. Town and Regional Planning, no.77, pp. 103-119.

Ms Willemien (C.W.) van Niekerk, Principal Researcher, CSIR Smart Places, P.O. Box 395; Pretoria 0001. Phone: 012 841 2552, email: <[email protected]>, ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6187-9520.Ms Amy (A.) Pieterse, Senior Researcher, CSIR Smart Places, P.O. Box 395; Pretoria 0001. Phone: 012 841 4220, email: <[email protected]>, ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8270-456X.Ms Alize (A.) le Roux, Principal Researcher, CSIR Smart Places, P.O. Box 395; Pretoria 0001. Phone: 012 841 3242, email: <[email protected]>, ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9214-5076.

Introducing the Green Book: A practical planning tool for adapting South African settlements to climate change

Willemien van Niekerk, Amy Pieterse & Alize le Roux





AbstractThe Green Book is not a book, but a novel, practical online planning tool to support the adaptation of South African settlements to the impacts of climatic changes and severe events. It provides evidence of current and future (2050) climate risks and vulnerability for every local municipality in South Africa (including settlements) in the form of climate-change projections, multidimensional vulnerability indicators, population-growth projections, and climate hazard and impact modelling. Based on this evidence, the Green Book developed a menu of planning-related adaptation actions and offers support in the selection of appropriate actions from this menu to be integrated into local development strategies and plans. The second half of this article describes the steps involved in the process of developing and structuring this menu of actions and explains how the information contained in the Green Book can be used to promote the planning of climate-resilient settlements in South Africa.Keywords: adaptation, Green Book, online planning tool, South Africa

BEKENDSTELLING VAN DIE GREEN BOOK: ’N PRAKTIESE BEPLANNINGSINSTRUMENT OM SUID-AFRIKAANSE NEDERSETTINGS AAN TE PAS VIR KLIMAATSVERANDERINGDie Green Book is nie ’n boek nie, maar ’n nuwe, praktiese aanlyn beplanningsinstrument wat ondersteuning bied om Suid-Afrikaanse nedersettings vir klimaatsverandering en ernstige weersverskynsels aan te pas. Dit verskaf bewyse van huidige en toekomstige (2050) klimaatsrisiko’s en kwesbaarheid vir elke plaaslike munisipaliteit in Suid-Afrika (insluitend nedersettings) in die vorm van klimaatsveranderingprojeksies, multidimensionele kwesbaarheidaanwysers, bevolkingsgroei-projeksies, en klimaatverskynsels en impak modellering. Gebaseer op hierdie bewyse het die Green Book ’n ‘spyskaart’ van beplanningverwante aanpassingsaksies ontwikkel, en bied ondersteuning met die keuse van toepaslike aksies om geïntegreer te word in plaaslike ontwikkelingstrategieë en planne. Die tweede helfte van die artikel

beskryf die stappe wat betrokke was in die proses om die spyskaart van aksies te ontwikkel en te struktureer, en verduidelik hoe om die inligting wat in die Green Book vervat is, te gebruik om die beplanning van veerkragtige nedersettings in Suid-Afrika te bevorder.Sleutelwoorde: aanlynbeplanningsin-stru ment, aanpassing, Green Book, Suid-Afrika

PHATLALATSO EA BUKA E TALA (GREEN BOOK): SESEBELISOA SE SEBETSANG SA HO RALA LIBAKA TSA BOLULO TSA AFRIKA BOROA HO IKAMAHANTSOE LE PHETOHO EA MAEMO A LEHOLIMOBuka e tala ha se buka fela, empa ke sesebediswa sa thero a litoropo se setja, se sebetsang khokahanyong le inthanete, ho ts’ehetsa tloaetso ea libaka tsa bolulo tsa Afrika Boroa litlamorao tsa liphetoho tsa maemo a leholimo le likoluoa. E fana ka bopaki ba likotsi tse ka tlisoang ke phetoho ea boemo ba leholimo ba hajoale le ba nakong e tlang (2050) le tlokotsi e tobaneng le masepala e mong le e mong oa lehae Afrika Boroa (ho kenyeletsoa le libaka tsa bolulo) ka sebopeho sa likhakanyo tsa phetoho ea maemo a leholimo, lits’oants’o tsa tlokotsi ka ho fapana, likhakanyo tsa kholo ea lipalopalo tsa baahi, le kotsi ea maemo a leholimo ‘moho le mehlala ea litlamorao. Ho ipapisitse le bopaki bona, Buka e Tala e hlahisitse lethathamo la liketso tse amanang le thero ea litoropo mme e fana ka ts’ehetso ho khethoeng ha liketso tse nepahetseng ho tsoa lenaneng lena hore li kenngoe maanong le mererong ea nts’etsopele ea lehae. Karolo ea bobeli ea sengoloa sena e hlalosa mehato e amehang molemong oa ho nts’etsapele le ho hlophisa lenane lena la liketso mme e hlalosa hore na tlhaiso-leseling e ka bukeng ena e ka sebelisoa joang ho ntšetsa pele moralo oa libaka tsa bolulo tse matlafatsang maemo a leholimo Afrika Boroa.

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1. INTRODUCTION

A 2019 study by the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) projects that the total South African population will grow by an additional 19 to 24 million between 2011 and 2050, totalling between 58 and 62 million people. The biggest population growth will be in the country’s towns and cities (Le Roux, Arnold, Makhanya & Mans, 2019a: online). These places are already and will continue to be impacted by global climatic changes as well as local extreme weather events such as intense rainfall that causes flooding (Engelbrecht, Le Roux, Arnold & Malherbe, 2019: online). The combination of population growth (in some towns doubling in the next three decades), an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme climate-related events, the socio-economic vulnerability of South African communities, and exposure of towns and cities to natural hazards, due to poor planning, will increase the risk for natural disasters to occur, and place tremendous pressure on

local municipalities (see Figure 1). To reduce the risk of loss of lives and livelihoods, severe injury, and damage to, or destruction of infrastructure and buildings, all at great cost to society, local municipalities need to adapt now to the current and likely future impacts of climate change.

The Green Book is not a hard copy book, but an interdisciplinary, open-access, online tool that was developed to support local municipalities in South Africa to adapt settlements to the likely current and future impacts of climate change (CSIR, 2019: online). It is structured into three main components:

i. A series of interactive national story maps that communicate the research methodology and key findings from the research, supported by maps, images and statistics.

ii. A municipal Risk Profile Tool that combines scientific evidence produced from multiple domain-specific research into interactive, composite profiles covering current and future (2050) climate

risks, impacts and vulnerabilities for all municipalities in South Africa and their settlements.

iii. A municipal Adaptation Actions Tool to support adaptation planning in local municipalities by providing a range of planning and design actions for municipalities that can be integrated into existing planning instruments to adapt their settlements to the likely impacts of climate change, to climate proof their settlements, and to reduce their exposure and vulnerability to hazards and thus the risk of disaster.

This article introduces this freely available, practical, online planning support tool to the planning profession – for which it was specifically developed. The article provides the South African context to urban climate-change risks and vulnerabilities, which is based on new research by the CSIR. It also describes the steps involved in the process of developing and structuring a unique menu of adaptation actions to support local municipalities in South Africa, with integrating climate-change adaptation into the planning of human settlements. Lastly, it explains how the information available in the tool can be applied to support the planning of climate-resilient settlements in South Africa.

2. URBAN CLIMATE-CHANGE RISKS AND VULNERABILITIES IN SOUTH AFRICA

Local governments are most sensitive to climate risks and vulnerabilities and have thus a distinct role to play in adapting to climate change. It is widely recognised that climate change is felt in cities and towns through both short-term events such as natural disasters and long-term impacts such as rise in temperature (Anguelovski, Chu & Carmin, 2014: 156-157; Chen, Doherty, Coffee, Wong & Hellmann, 2016: 403-404).

Figure 1: The combination of a hazard, exposure and vulnerability determine the number of people at risk of disaster

Source: Le Roux et al., 2019a: online

Willemien van Niekerk, Amy Pieterse & Alize le Roux • Introducing the Green Book

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2.1 The impacts of climate change on South African cities by 2050

The highest resolution (8x8 km2) climate-change projections for South Africa to date were developed by the CSIR and published online in the Green Book (Engelbrecht et al., 2019: online). According to these and other long-standing projections, annual average temperature over the interior of South Africa is projected to rise at roughly one-and-a-half to twice the global rate. The projections indicate that, under a low mitigation scenario (RCP 8.5), temperature increases between 1°C and 2.5°C may occur over the southern coastal regions by 2050, while more than 3°C is likely over the interior and northern parts of the country. This will very likely instigate a drastic increase in the number of very hot days,1 heatwave days,2 and high fire-danger days.3 Projected rainfall patterns over South Africa are more uncertain than projected changes in temperature. A general decrease in rainfall is very likely to occur over southern Africa. More specifically, rainfall is projected to increase over the central interior and east coast of South Africa by 2050, while the western interior, north-eastern parts and winter rainfall region of the south-western Cape are projected to become generally drier. The frequency of extreme rainfall events4 is likely to increase over most of the central interior and east coast of South Africa by 2050. Extreme rainfall events are mostly caused by intense thunderstorms, often accompanied by lightning, hail, damaging winds, and flash floods (Engelbrecht et al.,

1 Very hot days are days when the maximum temperature exceeds 35°C (Engelbrecht et al., 2019: online).

2 The World Meteorological Organization defines a heatwave as five or more consecutive days during which the daily maximum temperature surpasses the average maximum temperature by 5°C or more.

3 Fire-danger days are described as days where the McArthur fire-danger index exceeds a value of 24 (Forsyth et al., 2019: online).

4 An extreme rainfall event is defined as 20mm of rain occurring within 24 hours over an area of 64 km2 (Le Maitre et al., 2019: online).

2019: online).5 Furthermore, sea levels are expected to rise by 0.35 metres to 1 metre by 2100. Combined with increased storm surges, erosion, urbanisation and disturbances of the environment, this will lead to flooding of low-lying coastal areas if no protective measures are in place (Lück-Vogel, Le Roux & Ludick, 2019: online). Climate change, specifically an increase in the periods of hot, dry and windy conditions, is likely to increase the frequency of wildfires on the wildland-urban interface of South African settlements (e.g. the Knysna fires of 2017). The high fire-danger periods will increase, particularly in the southern and eastern parts of the country. The projections show a southward and eastward expansion of the occurrence of more than 25 high fire-danger days per year. The most marked shifts in the future are projected to be in the Free State, Western Cape, Eastern Cape, North West and Limpopo provinces (Forsyth, Le Maitre, Le Roux & Ludick, 2019: online). In terms of recurring drought events, large parts of the country are projected to become drier corresponding to the increase in maximum temperature and very hot days (Beraki, Le Roux & Ludick, 2019: online).

Figures 2 to 6 show the increase in the risk of these climate-related hazards for South African settlements. It is expected that extreme heat will increasingly be a major hazard for settlements to deal with in the future. Dense and built-up urban spaces absorb heat and can cause heat stress for people and structures, leading to health risks, higher mortality rates, lower quality of life, higher energy use, and economic losses (Engelbrecht et al., 2019: online). The fire danger is also likely to increase under hotter and drier conditions. Furthermore, local municipalities will have to plan for both drought conditions, as well as extreme rainfall events and coastal storm surges that cause flooding. Ensuring water and food security will become more urgent as the country

5 For more information on climate change projections and impacts on settlements, see the technical reports under the resources page on the Green Book website <https://www.greenbook.co.za/resources.html>.

becomes drier, while simultaneously settlements will need more protection from flooding (Le Maitre, Kotzee, Le Roux & Ludick, 2019; Beraki et al., 2019; Forsyth et al., 2019: online). Flooding and fires can cause huge damage to, and destruction of buildings and infrastructure, high repair and maintenance costs, disruption of services, and hamper economic growth.

2.2 The vulnerability of South African settlements to climate-related events

Between 1980 and 2019, South Africa experienced over 82 hydro-meteorological hazards (floods, storms, landslides, wildfires, droughts, and extreme temperatures) that have resulted in the death of 1,692 people, affected more than 21 million people, and in billions of Rands in direct and indirect losses (Le Roux, Van Huyssteen, Arnold & Ludick, 2019b: online). It is very likely that hydro-meteorological hazards will become more frequent and intense in the future. Local government, in particular, is increasingly faced with the responsibility to address the effects of climate change as their vulnerable communities and infrastructure are affected by climate change-related events (Pieterse, Du Toit & Van Niekerk, 2020: 2; Pasquini & Shearing, 2014: 272; Van Niekerk, 2013: 2-3). Combined with a growing urban population and many other local factors, the result is an increase in the overall levels of disaster risk in local municipalities to the extent that finances are being diverted from development planning to disaster response (Van Niekerk & Le Roux, 2017: 107).

The CSIR projects that, by 2050, 162 settlements in the country will experience extreme increases in population growth pressure (Figure 7); 263 settlements will experience high increases in population growth pressure (including five of the metropolitan cities); 520 settlements will experience medium growth pressure; 192 settlements will experience a decline in population growth, and 498 settlements will see no or hardly any change in their population growth (Le Roux et al., 2019a: online).

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Figure 2: The risk of heat stress for South African settlements by 2050 Source: Engelbrecht et al., 2019: online

Figure 3: The risk of urban flooding in South African settlements by 2050Source: Le Maitre et al., 2019: online


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Figure 5: The risk of settlement wildfire in South Africa by 2050Source: Forsyth et al., 2019: online

Figure 4: The risk of coastal flooding in South African settlements by 2050Source: Lück-Vogel et al., 2019: online

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Population growth pressure is the pressure a local government experiences from the rate at which the population is growing and its associated challenges, for example on housing provision and service delivery, and is a combination of the actual and relative population changes between 2011 and 2050 (authors’ definition).

The importance of profiling and monitoring the vulnerability of towns and cities, so as to address the resilience of human settlements, is highlighted as an international and national priority in the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Management 2015-2030, the New Urban Agenda, the Sustainable Development Goals, the South African Disaster Management Amendment Act, Act No. 16 of 2015, and the National Climate Change Response Policy of 2011 (Le Roux et al., 2019b: online). Vulnerability profiling is complex and often contentious. In the Green Book, the CSIR made a novel attempt to develop an indicator framework that profiles the multiple dimensions of

the vulnerability of neighbourhoods, settlements, and municipalities in South Africa, including the inherent vulnerability of people, infrastructure, services, economic activities, and natural resources. To mention but two national examples. According to the socio-economic vulnerability assessment (Figure 8), the Eastern Cape and KwaZulu-Natal provinces have the largest number of socio-economic vulnerable municipalities in the country (based on 2011 data). Municipalities in the north of the North West, Northern Cape and Free State provinces are also socio-economically vulnerable (Le Roux et al., 2019b: online).

According to the economic vulnerability assessment (Figure 9), the largest number of economically vulnerable municipalities in the country is found in the North West province, followed closely by Limpopo and Mpumalanga, with the single most vulnerable municipalities located in Limpopo (Le Roux et al., 2019b: online).

This type of risk and vulnerability information is available per municipality in the Green Book. The Green Book has the ability to dynamically and interactively generate risk and vulnerability profiles for all 213 municipalities and 1,637 settlements in South Africa. Most of this information is quantified. By typing in the name of a municipality in the Green Book Risk Profile Tool (Le Roux et al., 2019c: online), it interactively integrates information per municipality (and their respective settlements) on the current vulnerability, future population growth pressure, climate-change projections for temperature, rainfall, extreme rainfall and very hot days for 2050, the current and future impact of climate change on key resources such as water availability, the economy and agricultural production (also as proxy for food security), and the increase in the risk of climate-related hazards for local municipalities in 2050 (Le Roux, Van Niekerk, Arnold, Pieterse, Ludick, Forsyth, Le Maitre, Lötter, Du Plessis & Mans, 2019c: online).

Figure 6: South African settlements at risk of an increase in drought tendency by 2050Source: Beraki et al., 2019: online


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Figure 7: The population growth pressure of South African settlementsSource: Le Roux et al., 2019a: online

Figure 8: The socio-economic vulnerability of South African settlements based on 2011 dataSource: Le Roux et al., 2019b: online

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The municipal Risk Profiling Tool replaces the time-consuming and labour, data and analytically intensive way in which risk assessments were carried out previously, and is an invaluable tool in the disaster risk and vulnerability space nationally. Many of the frameworks, concepts, indicators, tools, data sets and models that were required to accomplish the Green Book project objectives were not readily available and had to be developed and/or significantly enhanced for this purpose.

Having access to this risk and vulnerability information supports local municipalities in the planning of climate-resilient cities, by providing the evidence for climate-response strategies, spatial development frameworks, and the prioritisation of adaptation actions in other sectoral plans. The next sections show how this information was used to develop adaptation actions relevant to the local planning function in South Africa, and how the actions can be used to adapt settlements to become more resilient to the current and likely future climatic changes and severe events.

3. ADAPTING SOUTH AFRICAN SETTLEMENTS TO BECOME CLIMATE RESILIENT

3.1 Conceptual framework

To leverage the imperative as well as the opportunity to respond to the impacts of climate change on the local level, the approach to and management of risk and vulnerabilities need to change. Urban planning, as a policy instrument that can address both the causes and the impacts of climate change, is a key component of such change (Hagen, 2016: 14). Transformational adaptation has emerged as a concept in response to the perception that incremental adaptation does not suffice to bring about the change needed to secure a sustainable and resilient future and has been used within the climate-change adaptation research community for close to a decade (Kates, Travis & Wilbanks, 2012: 7156-7157; Lonsdale, Pringle & Turner, 2015: 10; Pelling, O’Brien & Matyas, 2015: 113-115). The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) took up the

term in their reporting, and defines transformational adaptation as involving new approaches to urban planning and systemic change, while incremental adaptation is only about responding and preparing for the impacts of climate change (IPCC, 2018: 7). Pelling et al. (2015: 114) describe transformational adaptation as the ability to adjust existing systems to follow alternative development pathways. They argue that transformational adaptation addresses the structural causes of vulnerability as opposed to incremental adaptation that addresses the proximate causes. The concept of transformational adaptation highlights the important link between adaptation and development, and that adaptation needs to be integrated or mainstreamed into local planning. Integrating climate-change adaptation into planning limits policy duplications and contradictions, allows early action that is more cost effective than after-the-fact response, and facilitates transformational adaptation (Wilson, 2006: 611; Rauken, Mydske & Winsvold, 2015: 409-410; Pelling et al., 2015: 114). The development

Figure 9: The economic vulnerability of South African settlements based on 2011 dataSource: Le Roux et al., 2019b: online


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of the Adaptation Actions Tool in the Green Book promotes the integration of adaptation actions that would transform urban spaces.

3.2 Adaptation is a local planning issue

South African municipalities are required to plan for the future, while simultaneously dealing with the day-to-day management and development of the town or city in the face of fiscal, information, and capacity constraints. These challenges become even more daunting when threatened by the immediate and long-term impacts of climate change that give rise to the number of people affected by natural disasters. The potential risks can be addressed through effective planning and interventions, i.e. climate-change adaptation, that reduce the exposure and vulnerabilities of municipalities, and strengthen their ability to cope with potential hazards (Le Roux et al., 2019b: online).

Climate-change adaptation is the process of adjustment to actual or expected climate and its effects. Adaptation seeks to moderate or avoid harm and exploit beneficial opportunities (IPCC, 2014: 76). As the level of governance closest to the people, local government adaptation is critical to attend to vulnerable spaces and communities (Pieterse, Van Niekerk & Du Toit, 2018: 15). Since climate change is a cross-cutting issue, it can be most effectively addressed when adaptation is integrated with existing local spatial planning processes and instruments. There are existing linkages and overlaps between climate-change adaptation and local planning that can potentially facilitate the creation of resilient settlements in South Africa (Pieterse et al., 2018: 21). However, since adaptation is often one of a multitude of long-term context-dependent dilemmas that require urgent attention by the planning profession, it is often of a less immediate concern (Pieterse, Van Huyssteen, Van Niekerk, Le Roux, Napier, Ndaba & Mahlelela, 2016: 111).

Integrating climate adaptation in development plans and processes ensures that hard-won development gains are not undermined and that future interventions contribute to resilient settlements in light of a changing climate. This approach is likely to be more successful than addressing adaptation in isolation through a sectoral climate-change policy or plan.

The potentially beneficial interrelationship between climate-change adaptation, spatial planning and land-use management practices are, first, that spatial planning and land-use management can provide strategic and implementation instruments to enable integrative and coordinated place-specific climate-change adaptation (Faling, 2010) at the most appropriate level (Biesbroek, Swart & Van der Knaap, 2009: 231). Secondly, it is acknowledged that contemporary spatial planning focuses on ensuring sustainable development, and adaptation strategies can potentially form part of this drive. Some adaptation measures are not necessarily novel but may be similar to existing sound planning practices that foster sustainable and resilient human settlements and urbanisation. In the face of climate change, planning measures or land-use guidelines may need to be reiterated, reinforced, adapted or subjected to more stringent enforcement or control measures.

The Green Book project developed an adaptation planning support tool to assist role players (specifically local government) involved in the adaptation of settlements with the selection of adaptation actions to be mainstreamed into local development plans and strategies. The ultimate goal of the tool is to raise awareness, preparedness, and resilience to extreme weather events by adapting to incremental climate change, reducing future risks, and exploiting opportunities for sustainable and transformational development (Pieterse, Davis-Reddy & Van Niekerk, 2019b: 4). The remainder of this article describes

how the content of the Adaptation Actions Tool was developed, what the tool looks like, and how it can be used to support the planning of resilient South African settlements.

3.3 Method for developing the Adaptation Actions Tool

The online Adaptation Actions Tool was developed through the use of a mixed-methods research approach that utilised a qualitative, iterative and explorative research approach to develop the menu of adaptation actions into an online planning support tool. No known technology existed that could be harnessed for utilisation; thus, the development of a new online open-access system was needed. This was done using current, appropriate and newly established software development and website development technology. Particular attention was paid to the users’ experience by designing a graphical user interface that captured the attention of local and municipal planners. This article focuses on the method that was followed to develop the content of the Adaptation Actions Tool.

The Adaptation Actions Tool (Van Niekerk et al., 2019) is an interactive typology of appropriate, local, mutually supportive settlement planning and design actions. It proposes a basket of mutually reinforcing actions that are linked to each other so that no action is loose standing, but is supported. The tool was developed to propose adaptation actions to reduce the exposure of vulnerable people and places to the climate risks identified in the Risk Profile Tool of the Green Book. Thus, based on the specific risk and vulnerability profile of a local municipality, explicit actions can be selected to be integrated into the planning of human settlements. The aim of the Adaptation Actions Tool is to

i. avoid or minimise the expected impacts of climate hazards;

ii. restore, maintain and transform systems to be more resilient to future changes, or

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iii. retrofit infrastructure to reduce future impact or loss (Van Niekerk, Pieterse, Davis-Reddy, Le Roux & Lötter, 2019: online). The typology of actions is accompanied by a guideline that provides a roadmap for implementation by municipalities.

The following steps recount the process of developing the content of this planning support tool.

3.3.1 Developing a shared understanding and selection criteria

Climate-change adaptation is a wide field, and cuts across numerous sectors and disciplines. Twenty researchers and as many peer reviewers were involved in the development and review of the typology. Experts included engineers, architects, urban planners, anthropologists, a microbiologist, environmental scientists, an integrated waste specialist, and geographers. It was thus necessary to develop a shared understanding between all the domain-specific experts to clarify the role of the researchers, who the target audience was, climate-change adaptation and urban planning-related terminology, and which likely future climate-related hazards needed to be addressed by the adaptation actions. It was also necessary to develop criteria for the selection of the adaptation actions, namely the range, scale, and nature of the adaptation actions that were to be considered for inclusion in the typology. The process and parameters were tested with the research team as well as with a reference group consisting of individuals in the climate-change adaptation field.

This shared understanding entailed the following:

• Task: To review adaptation literature and make recommendations as to which adaptation actions to include in this South African typology.

• Target audience: People involved in the planning of human settlements at a municipal level, including spatial planning, land-use management, infrastructure

planning, settlement design, environmental planning, climate-change adaptation, disaster risk reduction, and engineering services.

• Terminology: Clarification on what is meant by adaptation, adaptation actions, disaster risk reduction, mitigation, urban planning, and human settlements.

• Priority hazards: The Green Book Risk Profile Tool identified the biggest climate-related threats to South African settlements as inland flooding, drought, wildfire, and coastal flooding (Le Roux et al., 2019c: online). Extreme heat was also identified as a climate hazard under the climate-change projections (Engelbrecht et al., 2019: online).

The selection criteria used to screen the literature were:

• Adaptation actions need to be linked to the mandate of local government, as set out in Schedules 4 and 5 of the Republic of South Africa Constitution, 1996.

• Adaptation actions have to be suitable for urban and built-up areas.

• Adaptation actions have to apply to the local planning function.

• Adaptation actions need to support good planning principles, as set out in the Spatial Planning and Land Use Management Act, 2013.

• Adaptation actions need to support climate-change mitigation, where appropriate.

• Adaptation actions need to provide an economic, social or environmental benefit regardless of climate change.

3.3.2 Reviewing literatureOnce a shared understanding was reached, which took a surprisingly long time, the second step in developing the typology was to identify and review relevant journal articles, reports and adaptation plans and strategies (local and others)

to identify those climate-change adaptation actions that met the parameters of the study. For each sector or theme, various climate-change adaptation actions and measures relevant to settlement planning and design were reviewed. Many of the themes such as gender equity and water-sensitive urban design cut across sectors and some duplication occurred, which were eliminated in the consolidation step. For each adaptation action, a table was completed with a description of the action, including the constraints and benefits. Each action was also associated with an urban planning function, local or international examples, one or more climate hazards, and an adaptation strategy (see definitions below). Key end-users of adaptation plans in municipalities as well as project champions and experts in the public, private and non-governmental organisation (NGO) sectors were consulted to complement the desktop analysis.

3.3.3 Peer reviewThe critical role of local government as well as the importance of other role players, including community-based organisations, civil society organisations, as well as science and research organisations in adaptation planning are recognised (Parnell, 2016: 529-539). The value of place-based governance, multi-stakeholder and intergovernmental collaboration (Carmona, Burgess & Badenhorst, 2009; Pieterse et al., 2016: 117) is also acknowledged in the planning and implementation of adaptation measures. Thus, the actions were peer reviewed and refined through an iterative process and informed by expert local knowledge and examples.

3.3.4 Consolidating the range of actions

In the next step, the range of adaptation actions was consolidated in one database in the form of a menu of adaptation actions. Even though a shared understanding and selection criteria were established at the outset, the wide variety and differences in the scale and quality


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of the output posed some challenges to the core adaptations team when consolidating the actions. The biggest challenges were that many adaptation actions were not on a local municipal scale, were not related to the urban planning function, and were not complete in their descriptions. The core adaptations team revisited the selection criteria and determined that, in order to fulfil the goal of the project, namely the adaptation of settlements, and to focus on the target audience, the following categories of actions were included, namely spatial planning, land-use management, landscape and urban design, infrastructure and engineering service provision, and environmental planning. It was decided not to include actions at a site level, namely in the fields of housing, site design, building design, and building regulations. The core adaptations team then applied the expanded selection criteria to select the appropriate actions. The list of adaptation actions was then tested during a focus group with officials from the City of Cape Town. This consultative process identified and addressed key gaps. A final selection of adaptation actions was made, and this constituted the menu or list of 81 adaptation actions used for the Adaptation Actions Tool. The menu of actions is relevant to town, city, neighbourhood, or precinct scale and it can even be site specific, as it relates to land use and development control and aspects with possible cumulative settlement-wide impacts.

3.3.5 Developing an online, interactive typology of actions

The menu was fairly long and needed further refinement to be structured in a way that one can search and filter for actions in specific categories in an online, interactive platform. A typology of actions was created by distinguishing between three categories, namely the local planning function, climate-change hazard and impacts, and climate-change adaptation strategy. Thus, in the online Adaptation Actions Tool, one can search, select and filter actions in these categories, i.e. one can search for actions that fall within the

spatial planning category, address a specific hazard such as urban heat, and fall within a certain adaptation strategy such as a win-win strategy (see Figure 9). As stated earlier, the local planning function was defined to include spatial planning, land-use management, landscape and urban design, infrastructure and engineering service provision, and environmental planning. This category is mutually exclusive; therefore, an action will only fall into one planning function. This classification provides support in identifying in which key plans and instruments the adaptation actions need to be integrated. Priority climate risks were identified as wildfires, inland flooding, coastal flooding, heat stress, drought, and extreme wind speed. Adaptation actions also speak to the impact of climate change on key resources such as groundwater and surface-water depletion, and biodiversity loss. The attributes within this category intersect, meaning that more than one can apply to an individual adaptation action. For example, the action of clearing invasive alien plant species responds to drought, groundwater depletion and surface-water depletion. Adaptation actions have costs and implications, as well as benefits and co-benefits. The third category considered these attributes and classified the actions according to three strategies:

• Win-win: Adaptive measures that minimise harmful climate impacts and also have other social, economic and environmental policy benefits, including those relating to mitigation.

• No-regrets: Adaptive measures that are justified under all plausible climate futures (including the absence of man-made climate change). The costs of these measures are relatively low. No-regret actions are often appropriate in the near-term.

• Low-regrets: Adaptive measures for which the associated costs are relatively low and for which the benefits, although primarily realised under projected future climate change, may be relatively

large. These measures usually require an initial investment.

These strategies allow users of the Adaptation Actions Tool to identify adaptation actions that are in line with resource and capacity availability. In cases where a local authority has no or very limited additional resources available for climate-change adaptation, they may take into account only win-win actions and consider integrating these into existing plans and projects.

3.3.6 Linking adaptation actionsFrom the review of literature and case studies, it seems that isolated adaptation actions are less likely to be effective. Municipalities should ideally, in collaboration with relevant role players, develop and compile a ‘basket’ of measures that is suitable to the context, taking into consideration its capacity and finances, and the local geography, topography, and population profile. For this reason, interrelated and mutually beneficial or supportive adaptation actions were identified and linked, using a matrix to create ‘baskets’ of actions that can be implemented together across scales, sectors, and systems. These ‘baskets’ of different adaptation actions support sustainable and integrated interventions to adapt settlements to climate change (Pieterse, Davis-Reddy & Van Niekerk 2019a: 10-11).

3.4 Applying the Adaptation Actions Tool

The Green Book does not prioritise adaptation actions per settlement. It is the responsibility of each local municipality to select the most appropriate actions, given their local context and understanding, to be integrated into its local planning strategies and plans. Adaptation planning needs to be tailored to local and regional conditions, current and projected future climate risks, and local capacities. Some South African coastal cities, for example, have become industrial hubs with significant port operations that are vulnerable to the impacts of a rise in sea level and coastal storm surges, while some South African inland cities

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are commercial and financial hubs, with a legacy of mining, that are vulnerable to extreme weather events such as heatwaves, floods, and storms. South African cities also have a common socio-economic context within which vulnerable residential communities are often located in close proximity to industrial activities and other high-risk areas, thereby exacerbating risks posed by poor air quality and extreme weather events to human settlements. The adaptation

response, therefore, needs to be customised per local municipality and settlement. Identifying and prioritising the appropriate adaptation actions for a specific settlement thus require a number of key considerations. Figure 10 proposes a framework for mainstreaming adaptation actions into local plans and instruments.

Step 1 (Figure 11) is to understand the local climate risk and vulnerability context. To understand what

contributes to municipal and household vulnerability, one needs to study the municipal risk profile in the Risk Profile Tool (see Le Roux et al., 2019c). For instance, whether it has a growing or declining population, what hazards it is exposed to, and how climate change will impact on local water resources, agriculture and other economic sectors in future. It is important to understand the uncertainty associated with climate-change projections.

Figure 10: Mainstreaming climate change adaptation actions into plans Source: Pieterse et al., 2019b: 5

Figure 11: Step 1: Understand the local climate risk and vulnerability contextSource: Le Roux et al., 2019c: online


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Step 2 (Figure 12) is to identify priority climate risks. From the local risk profile, one needs to identify the climate hazards and impacts that pose the greatest risk. The hazards and impacts that pose a high and extreme risk to a municipality and its settlements are identified in the hazard risk maps.

Step 3 (Figures 13 and 14). Step 3.1 is to identify appropriate adaptation actions according to risk. Once the hazards and climate impacts that pose the greatest risk in a municipality have been identified, the adaptation actions that can reduce these risks can be selected in the Adaptation Actions Tool (Van Niekerk et al., 2019). One can filter the list of adaptation actions by the identified priority hazards and climate impacts.

Step 3.2 is to assess adaptation actions strategies. One would need to further prioritise the list of adaptation actions by assessing no-regret, low-regret and win-win actions in terms of their cost-effectiveness, the financial and human resource capacity available to implement these, and the multiple benefits or co-benefits these actions would have.

Step 3.3 is to avoid actions that limit future adaptation or undermine other actions. Adaptation actions that limit future adaptation to changing risks need to be avoided, as these can increase vulnerability or undermine future efforts to address climate change (i.e. maladaptation). Municipalities should also study the qualitative costs of the identified adaptation actions (under the description of each action) to understand the potential negative impacts or implications that specific adaptation actions may have on each other. Climate change adaptation outcomes and goals need to be weighed against one another to manage any conflict between actions.

Step 4 (Figure 14) is to create baskets of adaptation actions. One can combine actions with others to ensure short- and long-term adaptation outcomes. Mutually beneficial or supporting adaptation actions can be grouped together

for implementation. Rarely will implementing one action sufficiently address a single or multiple risks. Adaptation actions need to be implemented alongside others that will support and reinforce them. For example, to address the risk of flooding, a municipality would need to “determine flood lines”, “enforce flood lines” through land-use management, “visibly demarcate flood lines”, as well as “maintain stormwater systems”.

Step 5 is to integrate adaptation actions into local spatial and development plans. To ensure that adaptation actions are implemented, the risk is managed, and local resilience to climate change and its impacts are increased, climate-change adaptation needs to be integrated into local plans and projects. Climate-change adaptation actions should be included in dedicated climate-change response and disaster-management plans, but they should also form part of Integrated Development Planning (IDP), Spatial Development Framework (SDF), and Service Delivery and Budget Implementation Plan (SDBIP). By integrating climate-change adaptation into existing planning documents, processes and budgets, climate-response outcomes can be achieved while pursuing development outcomes. The adaptation actions in this tool have been designed to be integrated within local planning documents and processes, since they align with specific local government mandates and planning functions.

4. CONCLUSIONLocal government plays a key role in climate-change adaptation, because successful responses depend on local policies, plans, and processes. Providing evidence and information to support climate-change adaptation in cities and towns, as well as mainstreaming climate-change adaptation into local government planning instruments and processes, is essential to support short- and long-term planning for sustainable development.

The Green Book is a first of its kind in the world. In a benchmarking exercise, no other adaptation planning support tools were found that combine adaptation actions with customised risk profiles per local municipality for the whole country. The specific focus on settlement planning is also novel. With the evidence and planning support provided by the Green Book, local municipalities (and those involved in local planning) are able to plan for current threats, and prioritise interventions to adapt settlements to future climatic changes through effective forward planning. The Green Book addresses the need by municipalities (and many indirect stakeholders) to understand their current vulnerabilities, likely future climatic changes and impacts on settlements, as well as how to adapt to these potential threats, in order to climate proof their settlements, reduce the exposure of people and places to the impact of hazards, and develop sustainably. The Green Book was conceptualised in response to these needs, to offer a resource to South African local government to better understand their risks and vulnerabilities in relation to population growth, climate change, and exposure to hazards, and the vulnerability of critical resources. It also provides appropriate adaptation measures that can be implemented in cities and towns, enabling South African settlements to minimise the impact of climate hazards on communities and infrastructure, while also contributing to developmental goals.

More research is required on the feasibility of the adaptation actions, specifically by evaluating the long-term effectiveness, cost and relevance of the adaptation actions in practice. The research team is also in the process of extending the adaptation actions to other city functions and linking these to specific climate-risk zones in the metropolitan cities.

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Figure 12: Identify the priority climate risks Source: Le Roux et al., 2019c: online


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Figure 13: Step 3: Identify appropriate adaptation actionsSource: Van Niekerk et al., 2019b: online

Figure 14: Step 3: Adaptation actions descriptions, including supporting actionsSource: Van Niekerk et al., 2019b: online

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTThe work was co-funded by the International Development Research Centre (IDRC) and the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR).

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How to cite: Brand, A. & Drewes, E. 2020. Structuring South Africa’s national economic space: A regional corridor network model approach. Town and Regional Planning, no.77, pp. 120-136.



Dr André Brand, Director, Geography, Statistics South Africa, ISIbalo House, Koch street, Salvokop, Pretoria, South Africa. Phone: 012 337 6351, email: <[email protected]>, ORCID: orcid.org 0000-0002-6587-8899; Extra-Ordinary Senior Lecturer, Urban and Regional Planning, North-West University, Potchefstroom, South Africa.Prof. Ernst (J.E.) Drewes* (corresponding author), Department of Town and Regional Planning, North-West University, Potchefstroom, South Africa. Phone: 18 299 2543, email: <[email protected]>, ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-00034094-4922.

Structuring South Africa’s national economic space: A regional corridor network model approach

André Brand & Ernst Drewes*


Peer reviewed and revised May 2020



AbstractSouth Africa adopted a National Development Plan (NDP) (2013), referred to in the National Spatial Development Framework (NSDF) (2019) as a ‘super plan’, to transform national space economy and in the process disrupt the apartheid spatial logic. The South African National government adopted a series of acts and policies; sector plans and programmes, as well as strategic infrastructure investment programmes to eliminate the triple challenges of inequality, unemployment and poverty. This requires a strategic response, including a reorientation of selecting specific cities or regions as preferred locations to create development opportunities. Such a strategic response would require justifiable spatial solutions that can promote economic development. The article focuses on development corridors as a potential solution, elevating the importance of regional attractiveness as essential for economic growth. It is anticipated that the evolution of development corridors will result in the strengthening of cities and regional centres linked to the benefits exerted by corridors, on the one hand, and strong intra-national and interregional economic integration, on the other. The article concludes that development corridors are created to seek development opportunities, thereby increasing the spatial attractiveness of regions and cities that may provide for better economic spaces in South Africa.Keywords: Development axis, development centres, development corridors, development opportunities, economic space development, regional attractiveness, regional corridor network

AbstrakSuid-Afrika het ’n Nasionale Ontwikkelingsplan (NOP) (2013), ook na verwys in die Nasionale Ruimtelike Ontwikkelingsperspektief (NROP) (2019) as ’n ‘superplan’, aanvaar om die nasionale ruimte-ekonomie te omskep en, in die proses, apartheid se ruimtelike logika te ontwrig. Die Suid-Afrikaanse Nasionale regering het ’n reeks wette en beleide, sektorplanne en programme, sowel as strategiese infrastruktuur-beleg gins programme aanvaar om die drievoudige uitdagings van ongelykheid, werkloosheid en armoede te elimineer. Dit verg ’n strategiese reaksie, insluitend ’n heroriëntasie van die selektering van spesifieke stede of streke as voorkeurliggings

om ontwikkelingsgeleenthede te skep. So ’n strategiese reaksie sal regverdigbare ruimtelike oplossings verg wat ekonomiese ontwikkeling kan bevorder. Die artikel fokus op ontwikkelingskorridors as ’n potensiële oplossing wat die belangrikheid van streeksaantreklikheid as noodsaaklik vir ekonomiese groei, uitlig. Daar word verwag dat die evolusie van ontwikkelingskorridors sal lei tot die versterking van stede en streke wat gekoppel is aan die voordele wat deur die korridors uitgeoefen word, enersyds, en tot sterk intranasionale en interstreekse ekonomiese integrasie, andersyds. Die artikel kom tot die gevolgtrekking dat ontwikkelingskorridors geskep word om na ontwikkelingsgeleenthede te soek wat sodoende die ruimtelike aantreklikheid van streke en stede sal verhoog wat moontlik vir beter ekonomiese ruimtes in Suid-Afrika kan sorg.Sleutelwoorde: Ekonomiese ruimte-ontwikkeling, ontwikkeling-as, ontwikke-ling nodes, ontwikkelings geleent hede, ontwikkelings korridors, streek aantrekl-ikheid, streeks korridor

HO AHA SEBAKA SA MORUO OA NAHA EA AFRIKA BORWA: MOKHOA KA LITSHEBELETSO TSA TIKOLOHOAforika Borwa e amohetse Leano la Ntshetsopele ya Naha (NDP) (2013) e boletsweng ho NSDF (2019) e le ‘moralo o moholo’ oa ho fetola moruo oa sebaka sa naha le ts’ebetsong ho senya mohopolo oa karohano ea karohano. Mmuso oa naha ea Afrika Boroa o boetse oa amohela letoto la melao le maano; merero le manane a makala; le mananeo a ntshetsopele ea litshebeletso ele ho felisa mathata a mararo a akaretsang, eleng a ho se lekane hoa sechaba, tlhokahalo ea mesebetsi le bofuma. Sena se hloka maqheka a hlakileng a tshebetso, ho kenyelletsa thlophiso-botjha ho khetha litoropo tse itseng kapa libaka tse ikhethileng joaloka tse ratoang ke sechaba, ele ho theha menyetla ea matsete. Maqheka a joalo a hloka ntshetsopele e loketseng sebaka se ka khothaletsang kholo ea moruo. Tharollo e ‘ngoe e joalo e ka ba ntshetsopele

André Brand & Ernst Drewes • Structuring South Africa’s national economic space

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ea lithsebeletso tsa ntlafatso ele ho phahamisa bohlokoa ba ho hohela kholo ea moruo libakeng tse khathehileng. Ho lebeletsoe hore phetoho ea lits’ebeletso tsa nts’etsopele e tla baka, ka lehlakoreng le leng, ho matlafatsoa ha litoropo le libaka tsa tikoloho tse amanang le melemo e hlahisoang ke litshebeletso tsa ntshetsopele, ha ka lehlakoreng le leng, ho ba le kopanelo e matla ea moruo lipakeng tsa tikoloho tsa naha le machaba. Ka hona, lits’ebeletso tsa nts’etsopele li thehiloe ho batla menyetla ea kholo ka ho eketsa khahleho ea libaka le litoropo, e ka bakang libaka tse ntlafalitsoeng tsa moruo Afrika Boroa.

1. INTRODUCTIONTo eliminate the main challenges of inequality, unemployment and poverty, the National Development Plan (NDP) (South Africa, 2013a: 24) proclaims “South Africa needs an economy that is more inclusive, more dynamic and in which the fruits of growth are shared more equitably”. This, in essence, refers to initiating spatial transformation. The National Spatial Development Framework (NSDF) (South Africa, 2019: 24-38) states that the transformation of national space economy needs to be understood against disrupting the apartheid spatial logic. This requires a stronger focus on areas where sufficient agglomeration economies exist, which, according to Drewes (2015: 61), maintains that economic space development is the outcome of selecting specific cities or regions as preferred locations to create development opportunities, i.e. spatial targeting.

Although mining activities continue to be the backbone of the South African industry, intensive industrialisation has expanded rapidly since the 1930s and, as a result, the population of towns and cities increased sharply (Kwamena-Poh, 1986: 64). This resulted in the creation of functional and locational connections between economic nodes, where large amounts of economic resources are concentrated. Batten (1994: 316) referred to functional and locational connections as networks, within which trade occurred and, according to him, this played an important role

in the creation of scope economies, i.e. creating synergies of interactive growth. In the South African landscape, economic networks and synergies of interactive growth revolve mainly around cities and city regions, which accommodate over 65% of the national economy (Van Huyssteen, Mans, Le Roux, Maritz, Ngidi & Maditse, 2016: 5-7).

The agglomeration of economies at interdependent locations such as cities and city regions can lead to the creation of competitive advantages (Strzelczyk, 2015: 10; SACN, 2016: 29). New concepts such as spatial attractiveness (the capacity to attract new investment and development opportunities) for promoting regional economic development are becoming a growing importance for all spheres of government (Snieska, Zykiene & Burksaitiene, 2019: 928). The role of regions has increasingly been considered a key element to strengthen economic development. Therefore, different elements such as the effectiveness of infrastructure, network linkages, quality of life, image, institutional capacity and economic activities, which determine regional attractiveness, are substantial factors for attracting new enterprises to create development opportunities (Strzelczyk, 2015: 10; Snieska et al., 2019: 930).

The South African government emphasised various initiatives to offer the most productive and attractive environment to attract new businesses and industries that will enhance economic development. One such initiative, as emphasised in the draft NSDF late in 2019 (South Africa, 2019: 94), is development corridors (appropriate national and supra-national corridors) that seek to overcome the causes and consequences of regional disparities and to structure regional attractiveness (South Africa, 2013a: Chapter 8). Although the restructuring of economic spaces is one of the South African government’s economic development initiatives, there is a lack of development corridors as a strategic element in identifying investment opportunities

promoting the restructuring of economic spaces in South Africa. This article introduces regional corridor networks as a model to theoretically determine the potential of the most noteworthy development corridors in South Africa. In this article, the regional corridor network model is used to measure key development programmes (i.e. the IDZs, the IPP and Development Corridors), in order to determine whether these programmes promote intra-regional and global trade opportunities in South Africa.

Although there are different research techniques, this article employed a quantitative approach, which is central to the process of measurement, i.e. it provides the fundamental connection between empirical observation and mathematical expression of quantitative relationships (spatial relationship between regional centres based on numerical algorithms), which is the core logic.

2. LITERATURE REVIEWIn order to understand how development corridors can structure South Africa’s national economic space, it is important to introduce the current theory on regional corridor networks included in this article. The existing theory focuses on development corridors, regions, urban areas and spatial frameworks to define the elements included in the proposed regional corridor network model.

2.1 Development corridors The concept of what a development corridor entails is by no means regarded as simplistic. Development corridors are more than simply linkages; development corridors are integral to the economic footprint of a region and country (Brunner, 2013: 3-5). Most of the interpretations put forward by scholars such as Friedmann (1972), Tuppen (1977), Geyer (1988), Andersen and Burnett (1998), Arvis (2011), Buiter and Rahbari (2011), Henning and Saggau (2012), Srivastava (2012), Brunner (2013), and Brand (2017)

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reveal different perceptions of the concept. As a concept in their view, it is generally referred to as promoting urban reconstruction and the enhancement of urban growth.

However, corridors also bring forth other important alternatives such as the channelling of economic growth, the reconstruction of fragmented spatial disparities (Henning & Saggau 2012), the building or rebuilding of regions, and the mapping of economic spaces (Buiter & Rahbari, 2011: 7). Development corridors have two prominent characteristics: a link between nodes provides access to different levels of economic opportunities, and the intensity of economic development at nodes varies in size and dominance (Arnold, 2005: 6; Srivastava, 2012: 6; Mulenga, 2013: 2).

Hope and Cox (2015: 2) emphasised that development corridors connect economic agents along a defined geography (see Figure 1). Development corridors provide linkages between economic nodes, in which large amounts of economic resources are concentrated, i.e. linking the supply and demand sides of markets

(Brunner, 2013: 1). Development corridors do not channel economic growth in isolation, but rather as a network (Brunner, 2013: 1).

This supports the notion put forward by Batten (1994: 316) and Tudora and Eva (2014: 103) that the concept of nodality is the linking of a network of development centres, within which trade occurs (see Figure 2). Combining the various development centres within a network forms a unique, flexible exchange environment. Cooperation and linkages not only improve the economic performance of development centres, but also overcome uneven regional development, economic competitiveness and sustainability (Aydan Sat, 2018: 74).

Development corridors can thus be described as axes that express forces of development, i.e. they are an outcome of the flow of activities (goods, services and information) between urban and regional centres, which leads to the manifestation of economic development. The functional relationships between development centres play an important and decisive role in the

creation of corridors. Functional relationships are more than simply physical connections; they also provide for non-physical connections such as shared economic spaces (Brand & Drewes, 2019: 4). Aydan Sat (2018: 66) emphasised that functional dimension focuses on the flows among different centres, which give information about their interdependencies and interrelations. The application of the regional corridor model (see relevant section) provides such insight on functional relationships. One can, therefore, conclude that development corridors create opportunities to strengthen partnerships and increase the spatial attractiveness of regions and cities. One can surmise that linking regions and cities not only improves their operational and economic efficiency, but also creates a myriad of new economic opportunities; more specifically, it creates integrated networks of systems supporting the flow of goods; improved infrastructure; increased and more efficient interactions, and expanded business involvement.

Figure 1: Economic agent extending its benefits along a defined geography Source: Geyer, 1988: 116; Brand, 2017: 64-66

Figure 1: Economic agent extending its benefits along a defined geography Source: Geyer, 1988: 116; Brand, 2017: 64-66


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2.2 South African regions and urban areas

South Africa’s cities, towns and localities have developed and become hierarchised over the course of a history, during which population settlements and their distribution have been influenced by colonisation, segregation, industrialisation, and globalisation (Giraut & Vacchiani-Marcuzzo, 2012: 3). Since 1911, South Africa has undergone a long phase of intense urban growth, with urban areas such as Johannesburg, Cape Town and Durban (eThekwini) agglomerating into dominating economic spaces (Van Huyssteen et al. 2016: 1). Many people hailed the end of apartheid in 1994 with optimism, as South Africa became one of the most advanced countries in Africa, with thriving cities integrated into global economies (South Africa, 2016c: 4).

The post-1994 political changes had a profound impact on population and economic distribution patterns (South Africa, 2019: 27-28). The reason is considered against the background of colonialism and apartheid, when areas were

(spatially) excluded. This exclusion hampered economic development and growth. In the post-1994 period, when apartheid had ended, many people who had been prevented from migrating in the past, left rural areas for urban areas. This migration of people, mostly characterised by large numbers of Black Africans and largely triggered by Todaro’s (1969: 138) “bright lights syndrome”, was essentially productionism-oriented, i.e. when people migrate primarily with the aim of finding employment (Bakker, Parsons & Rauch, 2016: 7-11; South Africa, 2016c: 4). The migration caused unprecedented population explosions in towns and cities of all sizes in the country. National governments, introducing several acts, policies and programmes, aimed to redress the spatial legacies of colonial and apartheid rule. Government initiatives were directed at strengthening economic development and creating strategic regional, interregional and intergovernmental planning platforms (Van Huyssteen, Biermann, Naude & Le Roux, 2009: 203-204; Van Huyssteen, Green, Sogoni,

Maritz & McKelly, 2018: online; South Africa, 2019: 24-38).

2.3 South African regions and urban areas functionality

There is a growing international awareness that location and place, which, in essence, refer to regions and urban areas, are important elements for growth and development. This growing international awareness has had an important influence on various development approaches promoted by organisations such as the United Nations (UN), the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), the European Commission (EC), and the World Bank (WB), where extensive rethinking followed to promote the benefits of urbanisation, as a result of the advantages cities offer for economic and social development.

According to Van Huyssteen et al. (2016: 1), the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) developed a regional functional index as part of the National Spatial Trends Overview project commissioned by the South African City Network (SACN). Subsequently, the Presidency and the Department of Provincial and Local Government (DPLG) (and later Cooperative Governance and Traditional Affairs [CoGTA]) used the index to inform the Cabinet on aspects of the urban development policy, as well as during the process of developing a National Urban Development Framework (NUDF) (and later Integrated Urban Development Framework [IUDF]).

The development of the index was based on a classification of settlement patterns, by considering three main functionalities (Van Huyssteen et al., 2009: 203-204):

• Size reflects the agglomeration of economies and population.

• Function indicates an area’s economic role, e.g. mining, manufacturing and tourism, and its role, in terms of public and private service delivery.

• Institutional legacy reflects inherited characteristics of

Figure 2: Network effects of development corridors Source: Batten, 1994: 316

Figure 2: Network effects of development corridors Source: Batten, 1994: 316

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past policies, particularly the land-use policies that fostered economic and residential segregation within cities.

Applying the functional index allowed for the delimitation of the economic catchment areas of each settlement in the country and was simultaneously used to determine nested patterns of higher and lower order centres in the country’s hierarchy of central places. Functional analysis entails characterisation of regional economic systems in terms of dominant functions and their order of magnitude in their central places, to the actual and potential systematic linkages and relationships between economic composition and places.

The importance of the index is found in the latter showing how the country can be subdivided into functional areas based on the economic catchment areas of higher order centres. This, in turn, will determine spatial targeting, i.e. the functional index provides a mechanism to profile, identify, calculate, and analyse a set of development information and trends pertaining

to the range of towns and cities across South Africa. This simplifies the analysis of the network of towns and cities and their hierarchical and functional relationships in relation to economic spaces. The index has subsequently been used in the NDP (2013) as a parameter to classify cities in South Africa (South Africa, 2013a: Chapter 8; South Africa, 2019: 116-118).

The index provides a description of a ‘network of towns’ as a continuous landscape, interrelated through complex economic, social, political, and environmental forces. This means that the discrete consideration of lower order centre development as completely distinct from higher order centre development is, therefore, no longer valid. Instead, the index provides a balanced approach that addresses both ends of the continuum, rather than lower order centres in isolation from higher order centres (demonstrated under Table 2 of the regional corridor networks). In summary, the index provides an inclusive development framework that complements the current and emerging economic

development in South Africa. Table 1 provides a breakdown of the categories and classification criteria, defining the South African urban system and, ultimately, the distribution of economic spaces.

According to the classification, there are five main urban systems, with city regions being the most dominant. The city regions comprise Gauteng (City of Johannesburg; Tshwane, and Ekurhuleni); Cape Town; Durban (eThekwini), and Nelson Mandela Bay (Port Elizabeth), each having the highest level of economic activities. A spatial analysis of the urban categories suggests that the city regions and cities significantly dominate the South African economic spaces. Furthermore, a sector analysis of the city regions and cities not only identifies diverse economies that play a significant role as the core cylinder of South Africa’s agglomeration economies, but also that city regions and cities provide key linkages for comparative advantages and development opportunities (Van Huyssteen et al., 2016: 1; StepsSA, 2018: online).

A study by Van Huyssteen, Meiklejohn, Coetzee, Goss and Oranje (2010: 34-38) clearly shows that a national overview of city regions and cities illustrates not only the main agglomeration economies and increased opportunities, but also an increased concentration of interconnected networks of urban and functional regions.

2.4 South African spatial frameworks

Various South African spatial frameworks are available and considered by the different spheres of government in the domain of spatial planning (Schoeman, 2015: 49). Although many of these frameworks are standing on the periphery of the planning system (policies and legislation), only a few are key when considering strategies on how to best manage the country’s ability to achieve social and economic transformation (Brand, 2017: 113). The actual implementation of policy and legislation in South Africa

Table 1: Urban system classification in South Africa

Category Classification criteria

City regions (national urban regions)

Size of population: above one millionSize and nature of the economy (ESI >5): high level of economic activity in a diversified range of sectorsSettlement structure: multi-nodal

Cities (national urban nodes)

Size of population: between 500,000 and one millionSize and nature of the economy (ESI 2-5): medium-high level of economic activity in a diversified range of sectorsSettlement structure: one dominant node

Regional service centres (regional development anchors)

Size of population (three subclasses): i) 300k-500k; ii) 100k-300k; iii) 100k-40kSize and nature of the economy (ESI 0.25-2): medium level of economic activity in a diversified range of sectors.

Service, and local and niche towns (rural service centres)

Size of population (two subclasses): i) 20k and 40k; ii) variedSize and nature of the economy (ESI 0.065-0.25): medium-low level of economic activity, mostly in the service sectorsSettlement structure/function: the principal node of a strong, predominantly agricultural or subsistence-focused local region.

High-density/dense and sparse rural settlements (other smaller towns and settlements)

Size of population: (two subclasses): i) > 100 persons/km2; ii) > 10 persons/km2

Size and nature of the economy (ESI <0.065): mostly low-level subsistence activitySettlement structure/function: non-nodal areas with a significant spatial footprintSettlement structure/function: i) a limited range of services to a small or sparsely populated hinterland, or ii) specific niche services (such as tourism), or iii) non-nodal areas with a significant spatial footprint.

Source: Van Huyssteen et al., 2009: 207; Van Huyssteen et al., 2016: 5-7; South Africa, 2019: 116-118


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has been criticised, because the implementation and coordination between the vertical and horizontal government spheres remains lacking (Terreblanche, 2014: 156-157).

The following policies and legislation are considered to be key strategies:

• The NDP (2013), emphasises the beginning of a new focus on strategic spatial planning for South Africa.

• The National Infrastructure Plan (NIP) (2012) envisions a long-term planning framework for investment in major strategic infrastructure projects as incorporated and promoted in the NDP (2013).

• The Industrial Policy Action Plan (IPAP) (2010), introduces IDZs as a tool to assist in the economic development of regions.

• The National Transport Master Plan (NATMAP) (2011) envisions a dynamic, long-term, sustainable land-use and multimodal (road, rail, air and sea) transportation systems framework for the development of network infrastructure facilities.

• The Integrated Urban Development Framework (IUDF) (2014) unlocks development synergies that emanate from coordinated investments in cities, thereby ensuring a new approach for South African regions, cities and towns.

• The Spatial Planning and Land-Use Management Act (SPLUMA) (2013) brings together, through the development of Spatial Development Frameworks (SDFs) ranging from national to local, the collective vision of government, businesses, and civil society to promote social and economic inclusion (South Africa, 2010; 2011; 2012; 2013a; 2013b; 2016b; 2019).

These policies and legislation provide guidelines relating to spatial development, whether it is at a national, provincial, regional, or local level. The reasons being that they

provide the means whereby diverse sector requirements are captured and coordinated; they are where the normative principles (outcomes) can be interpreted, in relation to spatial challenges, and they provide the opportunity to ensure that capital budgeting is directed towards desired investment opportunities (Brand, 2017: 131). The central role of these policies and legislation in strategic spatial planning, sector alignment and spatial targeting of government investment means that spatial transformation will be more explicit, in terms of its geographical application, i.e. stronger focus will be placed on areas where sufficient agglomeration economies exist. This aligns with Drewes’ (2015: 61) submission that economic space development is the outcome of selecting specific cities or regions as preferred locations to create development opportunities.

However, this stronger focus requires reconstruction actions and, in this regard, the South African government has responded by placing strong emphasis on various initiatives such as Strategic Infrastructure Projects (SIPS) covering social and economic infrastructure to fast-track development and growth; IDZs to support sustained economic growth in the manufacturing sector; Action Agenda to interconnect cities and transportation systems, and Development Corridors for both southern and South Africa, to promote economic investment opportunities, as the key mechanism to not only address spatial transformation, but also drive economic space development (South Africa, 2010; 2011; 2012; 2013a; 2016a; 2016b; 2019). These reconstruction action initiatives require a kind of unobstructed (unbiased) model that can serve as an interface, whereby spatial planning policies and legislation can be integrated to collectively guide economic space development.

3. PROPOSED REGIONAL CORRIDOR NETWORK MODEL

As far back as the 1930s, Wright (1934: 161) maintained that there are diverse approaches to specifying a model of interest. He was the first to suggest that the most intuitive way to specify a model is to describe it by means of a path diagram. In this regard and based on the literature reviewed for this article, Figure 3 illustrates in detail what regional corridor networks entail. A diagram provides a useful guide to clarify ideas about the relationships that exist among variables, which could be directly translated into corresponding equations for modelling. Models are used to imitate processes or systems, in order to illustrate the eventual real effects of specific conditions and the required courses of action, i.e. the creation of a model represents the key characteristics, behaviours and functions of the selected system or process. Furthermore, models require a process of analysis, where special rules and procedures are applied to properly visualise data for better understanding. The visual nature helps simplify the understanding of the data for better deductive reasoning (Wang & Wang, 2012: 2-3).

Brand (2017: 181) devised a spatial corridor model as a potential policy approach to structure national economic spaces. This concept was further advanced by Brand and Drewes (2019: 11-21) to produce the regional corridor network model. The regional corridor network model takes into account two important behaviours, namely what constitutes an economic space development when focusing on cities and regions as economic forces, and the concept and importance of development corridors as supporting networks to guide economic space development. The relevance of the article is based on measuring the potential strength of the spatial relationship between various regional centres. Therefore, the study is based on the modelling of economic spaces to create the opportunity to predict

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spatial targeting. The following data sets played a central role: population count defined as all usual residents, generally referred to as the de jure population, and the total of all persons present as the de facto population; economically active population defined as the fraction of a population that is either employed, or actively seeking employment, and GVA at basic prices defined as output valued at basic prices less intermediate consumption valued at purchaser’s prices, i.e. GVA is known by the price with which the output is valued and is a useful way of comparing regions with different sizes of economies.

The methodology consists of three steps. The first step is to establish the spatial distribution of cities according to central functionality, which represents the economic dominance of cities relative to one another, i.e. creating a network of development

centres. The second step is to establish the relative advantage of the network of development centres when considering distance friction and degree of benefits, i.e. creating potential development corridor zones. The third step is to establish the integrated and supporting networks of development corridors, upon which a regional spatial framework to guide economic space development can be fashioned. Each of the outputs is subjected to a chronological, step-by-step process constituting special rules and procedures being applied.

3.1 Regional centres place of functionality within a network

To create a network of development centres (output one) revolves around four steps:

• First, to establish a general functional network of cities and

settlements. This first step mainly focuses on an Urban Function Index (UFI) (Van Huyssteen et al., 2018: online) to determine the economic weight of cities relative to one another and to distinguish between the sizes of the commercial, service and industrial components of urban economies. In essence, it determines the relative economic dominance of cities and settlements in relation to one another (Brand & Drewes, 2019: 11-21).

• Secondly, to convert the sphere of synergy that exists in the general network of cities into broader regional centres. This second step considers a daily and weekly urban system to convert the general network of cities into broader networks of regional centres. Cities have recently been linked to the daily and weekly urban system concepts and are used to quantify the relationships and flows (synergy) that exist between cities within a network (Geyer Jr., Geyer & Geyer, 2015: 5; Van Huyssteen et al., 2010: 34-38; Van der Linden, 2014: 26). The outcome elevates lower and higher order cities and settlements into broader regional centres when considering the concept of synergy, i.e. proximity – commuting distance between cities – when establishing functionality of central places (Brand & Drewes, 2019: 11-21).

• Thirdly, to establish the degree of economic attraction or economic output levels exerted by each regional centre, in relation to one another. This third step is to establish the degree of economic attraction or economic output levels exerted by each regional centre, based on the economic weight, which is referred to as Economic Impact Factor (EIF)1 (Brand & Drewes, 2019: 11-21). The outcome elevates the status of the most dominant economic

1 For the algorithm used to calculate the EIF, see Brand & Drewes (2019: 11-21).

Figure 3: Regional corridor network model Source: Brand, 2017: 134; Brand & Drewes, 2019: 11

General network of cities

Relative advantage of regional centres

Integrated and supporting networks

1. Urban Function Index

2. Daily and weekly urban system

3. Economic Impact Factor

4. Functional regional index

1. Link Demand Value

2. Cumulative Corridor Impact Factor

1. Economic Space Development Axes ranking index

City’s place of functionality

within a network

Potential development

corridor zones

Development corridors

Output level 1 Output level 2 Output level 3

Outcome 1 Outcome 2 Outcome 3

Figure 3: Regional corridor network modelSource: Brand, 2017: 134; Brand & Drewes, 2019: 11


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spaces, based on the degree of economic attraction exerted by each regional centre.

• Fourthly, to categorise the network of regional centres into a functional regional index. This last step is to categorise the distribution of the most dominant economic spaces into a functional regional index (Brand & Drewes, 2019: 11-21). The economic weight from the EIF provides for a natural break which translates into a ranking score, thereby allowing the opportunity to categorise

each regional centre as either mega; primary; secondary, or intermediate. The regional index, in essence, identifies a region’s ‘place’ of functionality (performance) within a network (Brand & Drewes, 2019: 11-21).

Figures 4 and 5 and Table 2 illustrate the outcome of the first output level.

3.2 Potential development corridor zones

To create potential development corridor zones (output two) revolves around two steps:

• First, to convert the degree of economic attraction exerted by each regional centre into prominent growth poles (node or development centre). This first step is to establish the relative advantage that exists between each regional centre. The relative advantage is derived from calculating the Link Demand Value (LDV)2 between each regional centre as a simple gravity model (Brand, 2017: 155-158). The relative advantage or LDV of a given place attracts the centralisation and specialisation of economic activities, i.e. larger urban areas attract people, ideas and commodities more than smaller urban areas (Janelle, 1968: 351). Considering that distance friction ultimately defines the attraction levels between two places, i.e. if the distance increases, the attraction levels decrease and vice versa, a LDV value above one is considered the best fit (strongest attraction level) in determining which of the regional centres are considered the most prominent growth poles (Brand, 2017: 155-158).

• Secondly, to convert the prominent growth poles into a Cumulative Corridor Impact Factor (CCIF),3 in order to create potential development corridor zones. Having established the most prominent growth poles allows the opportunity to convert the linkages between these poles into potential development corridor zones. Therefore, the second step is to convert the outcome from the LDVs into a CCIF. To achieve this, the linkages between mega, primary, secondary, and intermediate centres are segmented into sections and cumulative adding of each adjacent section (increasing by one addition after another) within the potential link determines the vitality

2 For the algorithm used to calculate the LDV, see Brand (2017: 155-158).

3 For the algorithm used to calculate the CCIF, see Brand (2017: 155-158).

Figures 4 and 5 and Table 2 illustrate the outcome of the first output level.

Figure 4: EIF ranking index Source: Brand & Drewes, 2019: 21

Development

EIF

Mega 1> Secondary 0.1 and 0.01 Primary 1 and 0.1 Intermediate 0.01 and 0.003

Figure 4: EIF ranking indexSource: Brand & Drewes, 2019: 21

Figure 5: Primary networks of functional development centres Source: Brand & Drewes, 2019: 21

Figure 5: Primary networks of functional development centresSource: Brand & Drewes, 2019: 21

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(forcefulness) of a corridor zone. The outcome allows quantifying the degree or the force each mega, primary, secondary, and intermediate centre exerts as benefits through successive additions, which determine the overall strength of a corridor zone (Brand, 2017: 155-158). Figure 6 illustrates the outcome for the second output level.

3.3 Potential of the most noteworthy development corridors

Having established the potential development corridor zones does not constitute development corridors. Therefore, to determine the potential of the most noteworthy development corridors (output three), the outcomes from the CCIF are converted into Economic Space Development Axes (ESDA). The ESDA determines, with the use of a ranking score, the ultimate, integrated and supporting networks of development axes,

upon which a regional spatial framework to guide economic space development can be built. The ESDA considers breakpoints to translate the different strengths of potential development corridor zones into an ESDA ranking index. Applying the ranking index denotes the regional centres’ size as an intersection point and the strength (force) of interaction that exists between regional centres (Brand, 2017: 159-163). Figures 7 and 8 illustrate the outcome of output level 3.

Evident from outcome 3 are the following:

• The most predominant potential development corridors, with a CCIF value of above 500, are:

» The Johannesburg to Newcastle (Johannesburg, Witbank and Newcastle) link

» The Johannesburg to Nelspruit (Johannesburg, Witbank and Nelspruit) link

» The Johannesburg to Mmabatho (Johannesburg, Rustenburg and Mmabatho) link.

• The most prominent potential development corridor, with a CCIF value of between 300 and 500, is the Johannesburg to Richards Bay (Johannesburg, Harrismith, Durban (eThekwini) and Richards Bay) link.

• The most significant potential development corridor, with a CCIF value of between 100 and 300, is the Johannesburg to Cape Town (Johannesburg, Klerksdorp, Welkom, Bloemfontein and Cape Town) link.

The application of the regional corridor network model illustrates that development corridors are key considerations for the pursuit of strategies for cohesion and sustainable development and can stimulate a more balanced

Table 2: Primary networks of functional development centresRegional

node Municipality City/Town Regional node Municipality City/Town

1 Nelson Mandela Bay Port Elizabeth 18 Polokwane Polokwane2 Buffalo City East London 19 Greater Tzaneen Tzaneen3 King Sabata Dalindyebo Mthatha 20 Makhado Makhado4 Lukanji Queenstown 21 Mogalakwena Mokopane5 Makana Grahamstown 22 Mbombela Nelspruit6 Mangaung Bloemfontein

23Emalahleni Witbank

7 Matjhabeng Welkom Steve Tshwete Middelburg8 Moqhaka Kroonstad Govan Mbeki Secunda9 Dihlabeng Bethlehem 24 Msukaligwa Ermelo10 Maluti a Phofung Harrismith 25 Sol Plaatjie Kimberley11 Ngwathe Parys 26 //Khara Hais Upington

12

Johannesburg Johannesburg 27 Nama Khoi SpringbokCity of Tshwane Tshwane

28City of Matlosana Klerksdorp

Madibeng Brits-Hartbeespoort Tlokwe City Council PotchefstroomEkurhuleni Ekurhuleni 29 Rustenburg RustenburgMogale City Krugersdorp

30Mafikeng Mafikeng

Emfuleni Vereeniging/ Vanderbijlpark Ditsobotla MmabathoMetsimaholo Sasolburg

31

City of Cape Town Cape TownMidvaal Meyerton Drakenstein DrakensteinMerafong Carletonville Stellenbosch Stellenbosch

13

eThekwini Durban Breede Valley WorcesterUmdoni Scottburgh-Umkomaas Overstrand HermanusKwaDukuza Stanger 32 George GeorgeThe Msunduzi Pietermaritzburg Mossel Bay Mossel Bay

14uMhlathuze Richardsbay Knysna KnysnaNtambanana Empangeni Oudtshoorn Oudtshoorn

15 Newcastle Newcastle Bitou Plettenberg Bay16 Emnambithi/ Ladysmith Ladysmith 33 Saldanha Bay Saldanha Bay17 Abaqulusi Vryheid

Source: Brand & Drewes, 2019: 16-19


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development policy approach. This aligns with Meijers, Waterhout and Zonneveld’s (2005: 99) submission that the distribution of economically relevant functions over a network addresses the way that a multitude of development centres rather than one or two, gains significance. From the model, one can surmise the following as key characteristics of development corridors: the economic weight or vitality of the development centres; the mutual interdependency between the development centres, and the physical and economic circumstances under which the development centres operate.

4. MEASURE KEY DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMMES

To assist the NDP and NSDF in carrying out their mandate, the regional corridor network model was used as a theoretical framework to measure key development programmes, namely the IDZs, initiated to support sustained economic growth in the manufacturing sector; the IPP, initiated to create investment opportunities to promote economic growth, and Development Corridors for both southern and South Africa, initiated to promote intra-regional and global trade opportunities for South Africa. Each of these programmes are briefly discussed and measured against the outcomes of the regional corridor network model.

4.1 Industrial developmentA key initiative linked to the IPAP (2010), as an outflow from the IDZ, is government’s IPP, spearheaded by the Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) (2010). The DTI prioritised various state-owned industrial parks (see Table 3 and Figure 9) as part of creating development opportunities to promote economic growth. According to the DTI, the initiative will go a long way in accelerating economic development in especially the lagging regions of the country. In the DTI’s view, industrial parks will contribute towards economic growth, job creation and

Figure 6: Potential development corridor zonesSource: Brand, 2017: 160

Figure 7: Potential development corridors breakpointsSource: Brand, 2017: 161Source: Brand, 2017: 161

Figure 8: Potential development corridors Source: Brand, 2017: 162

High Medium – High Medium Low

Figure 8: Potential development corridorsSource: Brand, 2017: 162

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diversification of economic activity, as well as attracting investment opportunities. The DTI strongly believes that industrial parks will enable regions to build, strengthen and develop their strategic industrial capabilities (Industrial Property News, 2020: online).

Measuring the IPPs against the outcomes of the regional corridor network model, considering Figures 5 and 8, Isithebe, Botshabelo, Phuthaditjhaba, Babelegi, Garankuwa, Bodirelo and Ekandustria stood out as having notable potential development opportunities for the following reasons. Isithebe is located on a prominent development axis extending between eThekwini (primary node) and Richards Bay (secondary node). Botshabelo is located in the proximity of Bloemfontein (secondary node), which is located on a significant development axis extending between the Gauteng region (mega node) and Cape Town (primary node). Phuthaditjhaba is located on a prominent development axis extending between the Gauteng region (mega node) and eThekwini (primary node). Babelegi and Garankuwa are located in the proximity of the Gauteng region (mega node), which emerged as a monocentric economic powerhouse. Bodirelo is located on a predominant development axis extending between the Gauteng region (mega node) and Mmabatho (intermediate node). Ekandustria is located on a predominant development axis extending between the Gauteng region (mega node) and Nelspruit (secondary node). Seshego stood out as having constricted potential, because, although located in the proximity of Polokwane, which emerged as a strong, viable secondary node, it does not conform to any potential development axis. The Industrial Parks Nkowankowa, Queenstown and Vulindlela stood out as having minimal potential, because they do not conform to any potential growth poles or development axes.

Table 3: State Industrial Parks and Industrial Development ZonesIndustrial Parks (IPPs) Place Province Potential

1 Seshego Polokwane Limpopo Constricted potential2 Nkowankowa Tzaneen Limpopo Minimal potential3 Queenstown Queenstown Eastern Cape Minimal potential4 Vulindlela Mthatha Eastern Cape Minimal potential5 Isithebe Durban/Richards Bay KwaZulu-Natal Notable potential6 Botshabelo Thaba Nchu/Bloemfontein Free State Notable potential7 Phuthaditjhaba Harrismith Free State Notable potential8 Bodirelo Mogwase North West Notable potential9 Babelegi Hammanskraal North West Notable potential10 Garankuwa Pretoria Gauteng Notable potential11 Ekandustria Bronkhorstspruit Gauteng Notable potentialIndustrial Development

Zones (IDZs) Place Province SCM

1 Coega Port Elizabeth Eastern Cape Constricted potential2 Richards Bay Richards Bay KwaZulu-Natal Notable potential3 Saldanha Bay Saldanha Bay Western Cape Constricted potential4 East London East London Eastern Cape Constricted potential5 Atlantis Cape Town Western Cape Notable potential

Source: Brand, 2017: 172

Figure 9: State Industrial Parks and Industrial Development Zones Source: Brand, 2017: 171

Industrial parks

Industrial development

Richards Bay IDZ

East London IDZ

Nelson Mandela IDZ Atlantis IDZ

Saldanha IDZ

Figure 9: State Industrial Parks and Industrial Development ZonesSource: Brand, 2017: 171

4.2 Industrial development zones

Industrial decentralisation is particularly challenging in the South African landscape, considering the deep-seated spatial distortions inherited from the apartheid period. In this regard, IPAP was introduced to differentiate economic and industrial development related to regions, in order to promote economic growth.

The key consideration identified by IPAP was to strengthen the instruments that would enable appropriate and viable economic and industrial decentralisation to take firm root in the previously underserved regions, connecting them into the wider national economy to discover potential new investment opportunities. In this regard, the national government introduced IDZs


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as a tool to assist in the economic development of regions (South Africa, 2010; 2016b). IDZs were created to support sustained economic growth of the manufacturing sector, based on the efficiencies stemming from proximity to markets; efficient supply and logistics chains; agglomeration and clusters, as well as supportive economic infrastructure. As illustrated in Figure 9, five IDZs were established:

• The Coega IDZ, situated in the Nelson Mandela Bay region (in Port Elizabeth), was designated in 2001 to become South Africa’s first IDZ leveraging the public sector to attract foreign and domestic investments with an export orientation in the manufacturing sector.

• The East London IDZ, part of the Buffalo City Metropolitan area, was established in 2003 as part of the South African government’s initiative to improve industrial competitiveness and economic growth in the country.

• The Richards Bay IDZ, situated in Kwazulu-Natal near the Durban (eThekwini) city region, is a purpose-built zone securing an industrial estate on the north-eastern South African coast.

• The Saldanha Bay ID was launched in 2013 to serve as the primary oil, gas and marine repair engineering and logistics services complex in Africa, servicing the needs of the upstream oil exploration industry and production service companies, operating in the oil and gas fields off sub-Saharan Africa.

• The Atlantis IDZ, approved by Cabinet in 2018, was intended for the manufacturing of “green technology components and services” such as solar components; wind turbine blades; wind turbine towers; solar water heaters, and other components (South Africa, 2010; Commercial Property News, 2012: online; South Africa, 2016b; Creamer Media Reporter, 2018: online).

Measuring the IDZs against the outcomes of the regional corridor network model, considering Figures 5 and 8, only Richards Bay and Atlantis stood out as having notable potential development opportunities for the following reasons. Richards Bay not only emerged as a viable secondary node, but also has a prominent linkage with eThekwini as a viable primary node. Atlantis, located in the proximity of Cape Town, emerged as a strong, primary node. Coega, East London and Saldanha Bay stood out as having constricted development opportunities, because, although located in the proximity of viable secondary nodes, they do not conform to any potential development axes.

4.3 Southern and South African development corridors

Remoteness from major world markets is the principal reason why many African countries have been unsuccessful in mitigating strong economic development. Most of the African countries are developing countries with similar economic structures and limited resources. The trade opportunities between these countries and world markets are insignificant and, in most cases, the transport infrastructure is weak and offers no advantage to economic development. Therefore, under the auspices of the UN (2009) and the African Development Bank (ADB) (2010), African countries have embarked on promoting various action plans to address the special need to develop economic opportunities, in the hope of stimulating intra-regional and global trade. In that regard, various regional development corridors have been established to provide important connections between economic nodes or hubs that are usually centred in major urban areas to address this need (SADC, 2012: 21). In order to create free trade initiatives, nine southern African regional development corridors were established, namely the Northern corridor; the Central corridor; the Dar es Salaam corridor; the Walvis Bay corridor; the Maputo corridor;

the Beira corridor; the North-South corridor; the Lobito-Benguela corridor, and the Nacala corridor. Of the selected southern African corridor initiatives, three (illustrated in Figure 10) are directly linked to South Africa, namely the ‘Walvis Bay corridor’ extending from Walvis Bay to Botswana, from Botswana to Johannesburg and linking up with the Maputo corridor; the ‘Maputo corridor’ linking the Gauteng region in South Africa with the Maputo region in Mozambique, and the ‘North-South corridor’ traversing eight countries and covering two existing corridors, i.e. the Durban and Dar es Salaam corridors, linking the port of Durban in southern Africa to the East African port of Dar es Salaam (SATTFP, 2005: online; Mitchell, 2008: 757-769; Infrastructurenews, 2016: online; SATTFP, 2018: online; ADBG, 2019: online; CTTCA, 2020: online; CCTTFA, 2020: online; Byiers et al., 2020: 21-33).

Measuring the southern African corridor initiatives against the outcomes of the regional corridor network model, considering Figure 8, only the ‘Walvis Bay’ and the ‘Maputo corridor’4 initiatives are supported as having potential economic development opportunities to stimulate cross-border or intra-regional trade. The reasons relate to the alignment of these corridors to the Gauteng region-Mmabatho (Johannesburg, Rustenburg, Mmabatho) and the Gauteng region-Nelspruit (Johannesburg, Witbank, Nelspruit) axes as the most predominant corridors. Furthermore, it is also evident that the ‘North-South corridor’ initiative is partially supported, as it only aligns with the Gauteng region-Mmabatho (Johannesburg, Rustenburg, Mmabatho) axis. Unfortunately, there is no potential axis extending from the Gauteng region to Polokwane,

4 Corridors defined by the NSDF 2019 are shown in Figure 11 holistically. Reference is made in the conclusion with the way forward. It was decided not to discuss the corridors, considering that the NSDF is still a draft format. It was highlighted that the measurements of these corridors can be a future consideration, as mentioned in the conclusion.

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due to the lack of the emergence of a viable development corridor.

South Africa responded to the economic vision of regional integration with the establishment of a 20-year planning framework to create investment opportunities within major strategic infrastructure projects (South Africa, 2012). The projects are mainly focused on creating development corridors, which are incorporated in the NDP (2013) as spatial themes and in the NIP (2012) as key infrastructure projects. The NDP (2013) highlighted that, in the South African landscape, city regions and cities are considered economic nodes or hubs that represent the core cylinder of national agglomeration economies. When combined, they support the notion of an economic network extending between them, i.e. the focus is based on modern, urban agglomerations of economic activities that are comprised of an intricate web of cities where the functional and locational relationships provide holistic and competitive advantages. In support of this political and economic vision to pursue greater regional

integration, South Africa (2012: 16, 18, 19) identified (as illustrated in Figure 10) three development corridors, namely Durban-Free State-Gauteng corridor, which has been earmarked by the government as an important infrastructural project to boost economic development. It forms part of the government’s 2050 vision and is considered to be the backbone of South Africa’s freight transportation network, vital in facilitating economic growth for the country and the southern African region; South-Eastern corridor, which has been earmarked to improve the industrial and agricultural development, and export capacity of the Eastern Cape region, expanding the region’s economic and logistics linkages with the Northern Cape and KwaZulu-Natal regions, and the Saldanha-Northern Cape corridor, which has been earmarked with the aim of ensuring that the Saldanha-Northern Cape region becomes a value-adding centre to economic development, rather than simply being a transit corridor for iron ore.

Measuring the South African corridor initiatives against the outcomes of

the regional corridor network model (considering Figure 8), only the Durban-Free State-Gauteng corridor stood out as having notable potential development opportunities, due to the emergence of a prominent development axis extending between the Gauteng region (mega node) and eThekwini (primary node). It appears that the Saldanha-Northern Cape and South-Eastern corridors have minimal potential, because both the corridors are not directly linked to the emergence of any potential development axes.

Although development corridors may not prove to be the only deciding factor, it is clear from the measurement outcomes, relating to the core logic of measuring spatial relationships between development centres, that participation in the development of corridors is a desirable option not to be dismissed. One can anticipate that the evolution of development corridors will result in strengthening regions and nodes linked to the benefits exerted by corridors, on the one hand, and strong intra-national and interregional economic integration, on the other. Therefore, development corridors do not, as such, contain the resolution of the challenges presented by different development agendas; development corridors are created to seek development opportunities.

Contextualising the outcomes of existing regional corridor networks (as illustrated in Figure 11, taking into account Figure 8) illustrates the following potential considerations5 for South Africa:

1. The following centres emerge as preferred locations for creating development opportunities to enhance economic growth:

5 It should be noted that the outcomes reflected in the paragraph are key to the core logic of the article, as mentioned in the introduction – see last paragraph under introduction. This paragraph should also be viewed in the context of Figure 5 and Table 2. Although the model was only measured against key development programmes, the outcomes from the model in itself articulate the potential of development centres as summarised.

Figure 10: Southern and South African development corridor initiatives Source: Brand, 2017: 171


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• Gauteng region, Cape Town and eThekwini as dominant nodes and economic powerhouses.

• Witbank, Newcastle, Rustenburg, Mmabatho, Nelspruit, Klerksdorp, Welkom, Bloemfontein, Harrismith and Richards Bay as viable secondary/intermediate nodes. The Newcastle region can open up a linkage with the Richards Bay region to the south and vice versa.

• Port Elizabeth (Nelson Mandela Bay) as a viable secondary node to open up linkages with the Cape Town region to the south, the eThekwini region to the east, and the Bloemfontein region to the north. The investment could enhance the opportunity to create a coastal corridor extending between the Cape Town and eThekwini regions.

• Polokwane and Makhado as viable secondary/intermediate nodes to open up a linkage to the Gauteng region to the south, as well as to enhance

regional integration to the north, supporting the North-South corridor initiative.

2. The following centres emerge as preferred locations for creating development opportunities to enhance and support cross-border integration:

• Polokwane and Makhado, as mentioned, enhancing regional integration to the north and supporting the North-South corridor initiative.

• Mmabatho, enhancing regional integration to the north and west, and supporting the Trans-Kalahari, North-South and Maputo corridors initiative.

• Nelspruit, enhancing regional integration to the east and supporting the Maputo corridor initiative.

Therefore, considering a regional corridor network model as a potential spatial framework, accentuates the following: the role of development corridors in economic space development, i.e. what essential

attributes and properties are needed to create development opportunities; a measurement to establish prominent development corridors, whereby development opportunities, which ultimately enhance economic space development, are created, and the role of a well-developed network system to structure and guide economic spaces.

5. CONCLUSIONThis article introduced regional corridor networks as a model to theoretically determine the potential of the most noteworthy development corridors in South Africa. It should be noted that the regional development corridor in context is a theoretical concept representing axes that express potential forces of development, i.e. it is an outcome of the potential linkages between development centres, which leads to the manifestation of economic development. The functional relationships between development centres play an important and decisive role in the creation and existence of development corridors. Therefore, development corridors potentially create opportunities that strengthen partnerships and increase the spatial attractiveness of regions as well as cities to business and industrial sectors, resulting in economic growth and development. Understanding the linkages between development centres not only improves the operational and economic efficiency of a region or country, but also creates a myriad of new economic opportunities; more specifically, it creates integrated networks of systems supporting the flow of goods; improved infrastructure; increased and more efficient interactions, and expanded business involvement.

The main difference between the approach to identify regional development corridors, in this article, and existing (draft) policy (NDP and NSDF) is that the latter policies envisage an ‘ideal’ situation with regard to the South African space economy, based mainly on political goals (South Africa, 2019:111).

Figure 11: Potential development opportunitiesSource: Brand, 2017: 178; South Africa, 2019: 69; 111

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Accordingly, the main ‘regional corridors’ established in the draft NSDF reflect on ‘transformation corridors’ (South Africa, 2019: 115) and are not based on ‘economic potential’ and ‘gravitational analysis’, as per the regional corridor network model. This is confirmed in Figure 8 that illustrates numerous regional corridors that have been identified in national policy, but lack any or sufficient economic development potential (i.e. Polokwane corridor, Port-Elizabeth-Durban Corridor).

The principle and theory underlying development corridors is that economic growth is created from transforming the functional relationships that already exist between urban or regional centres into economic development zones. This produces benefits that include the enhancement of trade opportunities; the opening up of neighbouring markets to one another; the granting of access to global markets, and the encouragement of public and private investment opportunities. The regional corridor network model was mainly measured against key national development programmes supported by the NDP (2013) as well as draft proposals initiated through the NSDF (2019) (i.e. the IDZs, the IPP, and Development Corridors) to determine whether these programmes promote intra-regional and global trade opportunities in South Africa.

Considering South Africa’s spatial legacy, development corridors, although not the only deciding factor, prove to be an appropriate development instrument for a developing country such as South Africa, because it re-orientates attention to the potential of regional centres as development nodes. It enhances understanding the economic vitality of regional centres as well as the mutual interdependency that exists between the regional centres. This is an important consideration when selecting regions or cities as preferred locations to promote development opportunities.

Regional corridor networks, as a potential spatial targeting instrument, might not be the only solution in transforming the local challenges of inequality, unemployment and poverty, facing South Africa; but it does re-orientate attention to the potential of regional centres as development nodes.

The regional corridor network model was mainly measured against key national development programmes supported by the NDP (2013) as well as draft proposals initiated through the NSDF (2019) (i.e. the IDZs, the IPP, and Development Corridors) to determine whether these programmes promote intra-regional and global trade opportunities in South Africa. Given the importance and timing of the draft NSDF (2019), measuring the regional corridor network model against the implementation thereof shows that there are critical differences in the approach to the development of the national space economy, where “idealistic” (South Africa, 2019: 111) goals are not necessarily supported by scientific data to support the proposed developments.

Based on the outcome of the regional corridor network model measurements, only Richards Bay and Atlantis stood out as having notable potential development opportunities as IDZs; Isithebe, Botshabelo, Phuthaditjhaba, Babelegi, Garankuwa, Bodirelo and Ekandustria stood out as having notable potential development opportunities as IPPs, and only the ‘Durban-Free State-Gauteng corridor’ stood out as having notable potential development opportunities.

Taking the ‘economic potential’ and ‘gravitational analysis’ as measurement outcomes of the regional corridor network model into consideration, centres emerging as preferred locations for creating development opportunities to enhance economic growth include the Gauteng region, Cape Town and eThekwini as dominant nodes and economic powerhouses. Polokwane, Makhado, Mmabatho and Nelspruit emerged as centres and preferred

locations for creating development opportunities to enhance and support cross-border integration.

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How to cite: Sinxadi, L., Awuzie, B. & Campbell, M. 2020. Multi-stakeholder perspectives on approaches for addressing the incidence of urban public open space encroachment: The case of Freedom Square, Bloemfontein. Town and Regional Planning, no.77, pp. 137-148.

Dr Lindelwa Sinxadi, Lecturer, Department of Built Environment, Central University of Technology, P/B X20359, Bloemfontein, South Africa, 9300. Phone: 0844040040, email: <[email protected]>, ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3674-0636.Prof. Bankole Awuzie, Department of Built Environment, Central University of Technology, P/B X20359, Bloemfontein, South Africa, 9300. Phone: 0515074315, email: <[email protected]>, ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3371-191X.Prof. Maléne Campbell, Department of Urban and Regional Planning, University of the Free State, P.O. Box 339, Bloemfontein, 9300, South Africa. Phone: 0514013575, email: <[email protected]>, ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7045-5946.

Multi-stakeholder perspectives on approaches for addressing the incidence of urban public open space encroachment: The case of Freedom Square, Bloemfontein

Lindelwa Sinxadi, Bankole Awuzie & Maléne Campbell





Abstract Several studies have investigated the extinction of urban public open spaces in South Africa. However, a fixation by such studies on well-established primary cities has been noticed, whilst limited attention has been paid to emerging major cities. In addition, findings from these studies have resulted from the perspectives of either planning entities’ representatives or representatives of the communities associated with open space encroachment. This implies the absence of a systemic and multi-stakeholder engagement. This article contributes towards bridging these observed gaps through the elicitation of multi-stakeholder perspectives on the enablers of urban public open space encroachment in major cities, using a Mangaung Metropolitan exemplar. Adopting a qualitative case study research design, data were gathered using semi-structured interviews and focus-group interviews. Participants were purposively recruited from Mangaung Metropolitan Municipality planning department and community members residing in Freedom Square township, Bloemfontein. The data were analysed using thematic analysis. Significant enablers identified include low levels of sustainability literacy, low levels of citizen participation in the planning process, and planners’ inability to manage extant value conflicts. The findings from this study contribute to a broader study that seeks to develop an urban open space planning and management framework for forestalling the incidence of encroachment in major cities. Accordingly, this study’s findings have practical implications for relevant planning stakeholders who are keen on curbing the incidence of urban open space encroachment in South African townships. Keywords: Bloemfontein, encroachment, sustainable neighbourhoods, urban public open space

PERSPEKTIEWE VAN MULTI-BELANGHEBBENDES OM DIE BESETTING VAN STEDELIKE OPENBARE OOPRUIMTES AAN TE SPREEK: FREEDOM SQUARE, BLOEMFONTEINVerskeie studies het al ondersoek ingestel na die verdwyning van stedelike openbare oopruimtes in Suid-Afrika. Hieruit het dit geblyk dat die klem op goed gevestigde primêre stede was en dat slegs beperkte aandag aan ontwikkelende primêre stede geskenk is. Die bevindings van bogenoemde studies is gebaseer op die menings van die verteenwoordigers van beplanningsliggame of verteen-woordigers van daardie gemeen-skappe wat geassosieer word met die besetting van oopruimtes. Dit impliseer die afwesigheid van ’n sistematiese deelname deur veelvuldige belang-houers. Hierdie artikel dra by om die geï dentifi seerde gaping aan te spreek deur die aandag te vestig op die menings van veelvuldige belanghebbers rakende die besetting van stedelike oopruimtes met die Mangaung Metropolitaanse Munisipaliteit as voorbeeld. ’n Kwalita-tiewe gevallestudie-benadering is gevolg, terwyl data deur middel van semi-gestruktureerde onderhoude en fokusgroep-onderhoude ingesamel is. Respondente is doelbewus gewerf in die Mangaung Metropolitaanse Munisipa-liteit se department stads beplanning en inwoners van Freedom Square woonbuurt in Bloemfontein. Die data is deur middel van tematiese analise ontleed. Betekenisvolle kwalifiseer ders is geïdenti fiseer, wat lae vlakke van volhou-baarheid, lae vlakke van openbare deelname in die beplanningsproses, en die beplanners se bestaande onvermoë om waarde konflikte te bestuur, insluit. Die bevindinge van hierdie ondersoek poog om by te dra tot die ontwikkeling van die beplanning van stedelike oopruimtes en die raamwerk vir die bestuur van die voorkoms daarvan in primêre stede. Gevolglik het die bevindinge van hierdie studie praktiese implikasies vir belanghebbers wat die verdwyning van stedelike oopruimtes in woonbuurte in Suid-Afrikaanse stede wil bekamp.

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Sleutelwoorde: Bloemfontein, onwet-tige besetting, stedelike openbare oopruimtes, volhoubare woonbuurte

MAIKUTLO A BANKA-KAROLO BA FAPANENG MABAPI LE MEKHOA EA HO SEBETSANA LE KETSAHALO EA KENELLO EA LIBAKA TSA BOIKHATHOLLO BA SECHABA LITOROPONG: TEMOHISO EA FREEDOM SQUARE, BLOEMFONTEINLipatlisiso tse ‘maloa li ithutile ketsahalo ea ho fela hoa libaka tsa boikhathollo ba sechaba litoropong tsa Afrika Boroa. Leha ho le joalo, ho bile le thlokomelo ea hore boithuto bo joalo bo lekola litoropo ke kholo tse tsoetseng pele, ha litoropo tse nyane tsona li sa fuoe tekolo e kalo-kalo. Ntle le moo, liphetho tse tsoang liphuputsong tsena li hlahisitsoe ke maikutlo a baemeli ba mekhatlo ea meralo kapa baemeli ba sechaba se amanang le ho kenelloa hoa libaka tsa boikhathollo. Sena se fana ka maikutlo a ho ba sieo ha tšebelisano ‘moho le bankakarolo ba mekhahlelo e meng ea batho ba amehang tabeng ena. Sengoloa sena se kenya letsoho ho koaleng likheo tsena tse hlokometsoeng ka ho hlohlelletsa maikutlo a bankakarolo ba fapaneng ketsahalong ea ho kenelloa ha libaka tsa boikhathollo ba sechaba litoropong tse kholo, ho sebelisoa mohlala oa motse-moholo oa Mangaung. Ka ts’ebeliso ea moralo oa lipatlisiso oa thuto ea boleng, lintlha li ile tsa bokelloa ka lipuisano tse hlophisitsoeng hantle le lipuisano tsa lihlopha tse khethiloeng. Banka-karolo ba khetiloe ka kotloloho ho tsoa lefapheng la meralo la Masepala oa Mangaung le litho tsa sechaba tse lulang lekeisheneng la Freedom Square, Bloemfontein. Lintlha li ile tsa hlahlojoa ho sebelisoa mokhoa oa tlhahlobo-sehloho. Linthla tsa bohlokoa tsesusumetsang ketsahalo ena li kenyelletsa maemo a tlase a ho bala le ho ngola, maemo a tlase a ho nka karolo ha baahi litabeng tsa ho rala, le ho hloleha ha meralo ho sebetsana le likhohlano tsa boleng metseng. Liphetho tse tsoang boithutong bona li kenya letsoho phuputsong e pharalletseng e batlang ho nts’etsapele moralo oa libaka se bulehileng tsa boikhatollo litoropong le moralo oa taolo ho thibela liketsahalo tsa ho kenelloa hoa libaka tsena litoropong tse kholo. Ka lebaka leo, liphuputso tsa boithuto bona li na le moelelo o sebetsang ho bankakarolo ba meralo ba ikemiselitseng ho thibela ketsahalo ea tšenyo le kenello ea

libaka tse bulehileng tsa boikhathollo makeisheneng a Afrika Boroa.

1. INTRODUCTION Open spaces have been described as “any unbuilt land within the boundary or designated envelope of a village, town or city which provides, or has the potential to provide, environmental, social and/or economic benefits to communities, whether direct or indirect” (Kit Campbell Associates, 2001: 62). This definition highlights the relationship between urban public open spaces (UPOS) and sustainable neighbourhoods, especially as it relates to the social, ecological and economic roles of such spaces in structuring sustainable neighbourhoods, whilst sustaining the character of cities or communities. The environmental benefits and opportunities of UPOS focus on three main components, namely maintenance of biodiversity through the conservation and enhancement of urban habitats; landscape and cultural heritage; reduction of pollution; moderation of extreme temperatures and contribution to cost-effective sustainable urban drainage systems, and provision for sustainable management practices (Swanwick, Dunnett & Woolley, 2003: 104; Wooley, 2003: 49). In addition, UPOS contribute to habitat protection, lower air-pollution levels, flooding alleviation, and water management. To justify the economic sustainability of UPOS, Cilliers, Timmermans, Van den Goorbergh, and Slijkhuis (2015: 215) state that UPOS make cities attractive, enhance tourist spending, and attract external visitors and investment.

The Commission for Architecture and the Built Environment (CABE) (2005: 9) postulates that the aforementioned aspects enhance neighbourhood identity and sense of belonging; attraction of an economically active workforce and businesses for investment purposes; creation of job opportunities, recreation and enjoyments as well as cultural festivities that attract visitors, and have a positive impact

on the value of the surrounding properties. Scholars such as Zhou and Rana (2011: 175) and Bromell and Hyland (2007: 13) maintain that UPOS provide social benefits to the citizens, and promote social inclusion, integration and interaction, recreational opportunities, social cohesion, and identity. There is significant environmental awareness and education regarding the value and usefulness of these spaces (CABE Space, 2005: 9; Wakaba, 2016: 26).

Li, Sun, Li, Hao, Li, Qian, Liu and Sun (2016: 1) affirm the integral role of UPOS within urban environments through fostering resilience. However, these spaces are becoming extinct, due to rapid urbanisation, poor sustenance and management, poor enforcement of land-use regimes, and a low level of prioritisation. This reality is affecting the spatial patterns of urban land, thereby making it difficult for planners to achieve sustainable neighbourhoods (Toba, 2020: 446). In addition, urbanisation has been identified as a major contributor to UPOS extinction (UN-Habitat, 2016). Li et al. (2016: 2) and Mensah (2014: 6) reiterate that some countries in sub-Saharan Africa and Asia have lost open spaces, due to rapid urbanisation. Poor sustenance and poor management of UPOS have created a gap for encroachment. This challenge persists in a number of African countries (Mensah, 2014: 6).

Whilst limited studies have sought to investigate the nexus between UPOS planning and management and encroachment in developing country contexts, particularly within South Africa, fewer studies have sought to explore the incidence of this phenomenon in townships around major cities (McConnachie & Shackleton, 2010: 244-248; Shackleton & Blair, 2013: 104-112). Further to the scant attention accorded to UPOS in these contexts, the paucity of studies is seeking to elicit multi-stakeholder perspectives towards the identification of enablers of UPOS encroachment. In Shackleton and Blair (2013: 104-112), Willemse (2018: 915-934),

Lindelwa Sinxadi, Bankole Awuzie & Maléne Campbell • Multi-stakeholder perspectives on approaches for addressing the incidence ...

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and Busayo, Kalumba and Orimoloye (2019: 1-9), respondents comprised households dwelling in urban areas where these parks are situated. This article, through its findings, contributes towards filling these gaps. It elicits the views of the planners at local government level within the township context, using the Freedom Square township exemplar within the Mangaung Metropolitan Municipality and relevant community stakeholders in the factors enabling the encroachment of UPOS in their locality. It is expected that the identification of these factors from a multi-stakeholder perspective will facilitate the development of an inclusive strategy for curbing the rising incidence of UPOS encroachment, thus allowing the community to derive the benefits associated with sustainable neighbourhoods. This assumption is premised on the criticality of user perceptions concerning the utility of open spaces to their sustenance thereof (Abbasi, Alalouch & Bramley, 2016: 194).


2.1 Criticality of urban public open spaces in engendering sustainable neighbourhoods

Urban public open spaces (UPOS) are indeed integral parts of sustainable neighbourhoods and do contribute to the sustenance of such neighbourhoods (Stessens, Khan, Huysmans & Canters, 2017: 329; Nochian, Tahir, Maulan & Rakhshandehroo, 2015: 29). They are known to promote physical activity, psychological well-being and health, improve the urban living environments, maintain biodiversity, and promote sustainable development (McConnachie & Shackleton, 2010: 248; Meyer, 2011: 12; Nochian et al., 2015: 29). UPOS have been associated with various uses such as parks, gardens, sports fields, cemeteries, and golf courses (Stessens et al., 2017: 329), streets and squares, city parks, festival prayer grounds, playgrounds, spaces within residential areas,

as well as shopping malls and entertainment complexes (Mandeli, 2019: 1). Based on the foregoing, the contributions of UPOS towards achieving sustainable neighbourhood through space management, space function, and sustainable landscape (Herzele & Wiedemann, 2003: 111; Al-Hagla, 2008: 3; Liu, Zhang & Zhang, 2020: 2) are easily discerned. Whereas space management refers to aspects such as sustainable lifestyle, community participation, sense of space, and resource management, the space function focuses on car reliance and the need to travel, while a sustainable landscape promotes self-sustaining and regulatory systems (Al-Hagla, 2008: 3). All these aspects are essential requirements for the development of a sustainable neighbourhood.

Having established the significance of UPOS in the propagation of sustainable neighbourhoods and improved liveability for citizens, the increasing disappearance of such spaces is cause for concern. The disappearance of UPOS in developing countries remains worrisome and has necessitated investigation by academic scholars working within such contexts (McConnachie & Shackleton, 2010: 244; Mehta, 2014: 53; Nochian et al., 2015: 32). These scholars have sought to determine the factors contributing to the extinction of UPOS within the context of the developing countries. South Africa fares no different from other developing countries regarding UPOS encroachment (McConnachie & Shackleton, 2010: 244). The country’s chequered apartheid history is reflected in UPOS distribution between sub-urban areas and ‘townships’, thereby negating the ability of the latter to attain sustainable neighbourhood status. This position, as well as the class-related influence on UPOS availability, access and usage have been succinctly articulated in previous studies (see McConnachie & Shackleton 2010: 244-248; Shackleton & Blair, 2013: 104-112; Willemse, 2018: 915-934).

Besides this, the distinction in perception regarding the utility of such spaces between developed and developing country divide has been known to influence the attitude and perspectives of planning practitioners within these contexts towards UPOS planning and management (Shackleton & Blair, 2013: 104-112). Shackleton and Blair (2013: 104-105) elucidated distinctions pertaining to the perception of UPOS benefits within the context of developed and developing countries. Chronicling the views of various authors, Shackleton and Blair (2013: 104-105) reiterate that, whereas UPOS were deemed beneficial within the contexts of developed countries, due to their contribution towards meeting the recreational, social and psychological needs of the citizenry, benefits associated with similar spaces within the contexts of the developing world comprised the following: provision of shade, fuelwood, fruits and medicinal plants.

2.2 Understanding the perceptions of urban stakeholders towards open space encroachment

2.2.1 Mapping urban stakeholders for sustainable neighbourhoods

Freeman (1984: 46) defined ‘stakeholder’ as “any group or individual who can affect or is affected by the achievement of the organization’s objectives”. According to Walker, Bourne and Rowlinson (2008: 73), the term ‘stakeholder’ refers to “individuals or groups who have an interest or some aspect of rights or ownership in the project, and can contribute to, or be impacted by either the work or the outcomes of the project”. To delineate the ‘urban stakeholder’ from the conventional definition, Campbell (2016: 41) described this stakeholder category as referring to “a group of individuals with different backgrounds, roles and expertise who represent different aspects of the urban complexity”. Urban stakeholders are categorised into two broad classifications. The

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first category of urban stakeholders consists of those who are involved in the delivery of projects. This category consists of experts such as planners, project managers, developers, investors, environmentalists, and human settlement practitioners. Campbell (2016: 41) maintains that the group of individuals who may be affected directly or indirectly by a project belong in the second category. The users of urban land (urban public open spaces), property owners and community members encroaching on open spaces belong to the latter category. All these individuals have a common interest in planning practice, or even in the creation of sustainable communities.

2.2.2 Value conflicts of urban stakeholders on urban public open space

Urban stakeholders involved in planning projects display different values and perceptions regarding the usefulness and values of UPOS. According to De Groot (2006:177), these values are based on ecological sustainability, equity, cultural perceptions, and cost-effectiveness. In addition, Carmona, De Magalhães and Edwards (2002: 147) suggest that urban stakeholder perceptions range between economic, social, and environmental values. For urban planners, the main concern lies in achieving the creation of sustainable communities while meeting the demands for recreational space and environmental quality (Campbell, 2016: 16). In terms of the economic value, investors and developers are mainly concerned about securing investment. UPOS make cities attractive and enhance tourist spending, thereby engendering economic growth. Furthermore, ecologists and conservationists aim at conserving open space, thereby protecting the existing natural values. This refers to the demand-and-supply approach (Maruani & Amit-Cohen, 2007: 4). The demand approach puts emphasis on the satisfaction of communal needs, whereas the supply approach focuses on the conservation of the natural environment.

However, community members concern themselves with safety and security, increased cultural and social vitality, better quality of life that include better and improved health, more inclusive open spaces, sense of place, and accessible environments (Carmona et al., 2002: 167). For example, community members without adequate shelter tend to place housing value on any open space, hence the incidence of UPOS encroachment. Toba (2020: 443) attributes the gradual disappearance of open spaces to the premium placed on housing value by urban stakeholders in various communities. Politicians are expected to abide to the code of conduct and set of ethics stipulated by local government (Watson, 2003: 397). Watson (2009: 158), however, observes that community members are not keen to accept decisions taken by politicians if they impact negatively on the well-being of the communities. In planning projects, as stated by Watson (2003: 400), politicians normally deviate from the norms and standards as set by the municipal code of conduct to ensure that projects go ahead. Often, this is done to enable re-election. For instance, politicians would support UPOS encroachment, leaving planners with no choice but to enforce rezoning of urban land to accommodate such encroachments.

From the foregoing, it can be discerned that different urban stakeholders’ values and perceptions lead to value conflicts that negate the quest for sustainable neighbourhoods. Such value conflicts also contribute to rapid changes in land use and occupancy patterns on UPOS. This is evident in the gradual disappearance of urban public open spaces, the emergence of informal settlements, and urban sprawl. Haaland and Van den Bosch (2015: 764) indicate that these conflicts result from a lack of understanding of different existing perceptions about the value and usefulness of open spaces. These value conflicts influence urban open space encroachment. Other factors that contribute to the encroachment of urban open spaces include planners’

failure to manage and implement land-use regimes, planner’s use of outdated town-planning schemes, and delays in approval of land-use change applications (Haaland & Van den Bosch, 2015: 765).

Planners and other urban stakeholders involved in planning and managing open spaces need to develop measures to curb the incidence of encroachment. Effective planning, strategic and holistic plans, as well as legal frameworks must be formulated and implemented by urban stakeholders. In addition, the social sustainability dimensions must be considered, by enabling linkages between neighbourhoods, open spaces and community assets to address issues concerning accessibility. Poor accessibility, due to location of UPOS, has been flagged as making salient contributions to the encroachment of such spaces (CSIR 2005: 1; Rahman & Zhang 2018: 3; Nasution & Zahrah 2014: 589).

Improved levels of sustainability literacy must be encouraged, as this renders community members knowledgeable about the need for the protection and conservation of open spaces (Cohen, Wiek, Kay & Harlow 2015: 8710). In addition, Nature-based Solutions (NbS) offer solutions to tackle socio-environmental challenges. The European Commission (2015: 5) define NbS as solutions that are inspired and supported by nature. According to the International Union for Conservation of Nature (2016:13), such solutions are cost-effective and provide environmental, social, and economic benefits, thereby playing an integral part in fostering human health, well-being, and social cohesion.

However, the non-participation of community members during the planning of projects for sustainable neighbourhoods remains worrisome, as this negates effective management of value conflicts at the planning stages. Haaland and Van den Bosch (2015: 764) suggest that the involvement of different urban stakeholder categories in UPOS planning and management


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processes remained crucial to curbing encroachment. Furthermore, such inclusion of, and interaction between stakeholders increases the sense of place and ownership among community members. Without such levels of ownership among the community members, attracting their commitment to the management of such UPOS will prove an arduous task (Mashalaba, 2013: 98). In addition, such engagement with the community enables the identification and incorporation of cultural attributes in the planning, design and management of UPOS (Mwaniki, 2019: 1587-1599; Woolley, 2003: 31; Özgüner, 2011: 600). Therefore, it is imperative that the perspectives of these stakeholders be elicited towards enabling, identifying, and managing their diverse values concerning the utility of UPOS.

3. STUDY AREA: MANGAUNG Over the years, Mangaung Metropolitan Municipality, like many municipalities in South African cities, has lost a sizeable number of UPOS in the townships to encroachment for residential purposes. The incidence of encroachment of the UPOS in Freedom Square township in Bloemfontein has become a societal malaise. With different urban stakeholders involved in the planning and management of UPOS in Bloemfontein/Mangaung townships, there is often a lack of understanding concerning the value and usefulness of open spaces. This has created value conflicts in terms of the quest for sustainable neighbourhoods in Freedom Square township, Bloemfontein. Evidence of these value conflicts include divergent perceptions from different urban stakeholders, namely planning, recreational, environmental, housing, cultural, and economic (Sinxadi & Campbell, 2020). The difference in values has brought practical and theoretical difficulties upon the planners. Even though the municipal Council took a resolution in 1998 indicating that families who occupy urban land illegally, which was hitherto not

earmarked for residential purposes, will not be accommodated in terms of town planning, surveying and provision of services, certain open spaces in Mangaung townships were rezoned from “Public Open Space” to “Residential”. This affected the spatial patterns of urban land within the municipality as the encroachment on UPOS became common practice in Mangaung townships (Figure 1).

4. RESEARCH METHODA qualitative case study research design was adopted for this study. Scholars such as Creswell and Poth (2018: 96) and Gay, Mills and Airasian (2011: 446) allude to the utility of the case study research design in availing the researcher with unbridled opportunities to explore a bounded system and to collect thoroughly detailed, in-depth, contextual data pertaining to the phenomenon being investigated. The case study research design also allows the researcher to deploy various tools for the purposes of data collection and analysis within the bounded system (Yin, 2011: 130). Accordingly, three UPOS case studies (erven 37321, 35180, and 50763, Mangaung) were selected to serve as multiple cases for the

research. In selecting the cases, the authors decided to explore making a comparison between the open spaces that were encroached for housing purposes and for recreational purposes. The aim was to gauge the perceptions of different stakeholders involved in planning and management of open spaces regarding the value and utility of such spaces. The authors also ensured that the participants involved in planning for UPOS, community members who encroached the open spaces and those owing properties surround the open spaces were selected. These criteria were developed to engender the selection of cases to support the principles of theoretical and literal replication (Yin, 2014: 61).

4.1 Sampling

Data were collected through a mix of semi-structured interviews and focus-group interviews (Merriam & Tisdell, 2016: 114).

Whereas the former was used for collecting data from a purposively selected sample of 10 planners working in the local government department, the latter was utilised for data collection from a purposively selected sample of 10 community Figure 1).

Figure 1: Urban public open spaces in Freedom Square township, Bloemfontein en-croached Figure 1: Urban public open spaces in Freedom Square

township, Bloemfontein encroached by dwellers Source: Maps retrieved from MMM GIS Division, August 2019

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representatives dwelling in residential neighbourhoods within the selected cases or in proximity to these cases (see Table 1). Purposive sampling, as applied to qualitative research, involves the selection of participants who are deemed able to contribute to the phenomenon being investigated, due to their possession of relevant knowledge or experience (Plano-Clark & Creswell, 2015: 332). Furthermore, this sampling method allows the researcher to rely on his/her own experience or previous research in selecting the sample and, in most cases, the researcher is familiar with the study area and the participants (Wagner, Kawulich & Garner, 2012: 93). Semi-structured interviews avail researchers with the flexibility to explore the complexity of the research problem from the interviewee’s perspective (Merriam & Tisdell, 2016: 110). Open-ended questions were employed to elicit answers from interviewees. Central to the interviews was the need to establish the intrinsic values, which the planning professionals working within the study context brought to bear during decision-making processes pertaining to UPOS planning and management within the study area.

Saunders, Lewis and Thornhill (2009: 344) have buttressed the potency of focus-group discussion in facilitating the elicitation of group beliefs and perceptions in qualitative research. In this study, the focus-group discussion session was used to engage community representatives in terms of their perceptions concerning the enablers of UPOS encroachment. The focus-group discussion protocol was designed accordingly and

included discussion points pertaining to the perceptions of participants regarding the value and usefulness of urban public open spaces.

The lead author had worked as a town planner at the municipality and the study area formed part of a project with which she had previously been involved. The familiarity with the context contributed immensely towards the ease of participant recruitment. Ward councillors were engaged as gatekeepers for the study area. The author conducted focus groups at Atang Primary School in Freedom Square township with the previously described sample.

The sample population selected for both the semi-structured interviews and the focus-group discussion sessions was considered information rich, as it included town planning professionals, human settlements and parks and cemeteries professionals, ward councillors, residents of Freedom Square occupying urban open spaces, and those staying in the vicinity of the encroached-upon urban open spaces.

4.2 Data collectionThe municipal manager of MMM granted, by written consent, permission to interview the municipal officials involved in planning projects. Consent was also granted to access the necessary archival records from the employees of the Municipality. Municipality officials and other interviewees were interviewed for an average of 40 minutes at their offices between July and September 2019. Two weeks prior to the interviews, the interviewees were provided with a detailed background

of the study. Questions posed were divided into three parts. The first part (questions 1-5) sought to explore the participants’ understanding of urban public open space planning. The second part (questions 6-7) addressed the impact of community participation, while the final part (questions 8-10) sought to elicit their perceptions of probable challenges affecting UPOS management.

4.3 Data analysis The author took notes during the interviews, whereas the focus group discussion session was recorded using an audio recorder, with the consent of the participants. These recordings were subsequently transcribed verbatim. The authors categorised various statements as contained in the interview and focus-group discussion transcripts independently according to a combination of pre-set and emergent themes after having read through the transcripts severally and compared notes on the similarities and dissimilarities. By so doing, authors engaged in multi-investigator triangulation (Patton, 1999:1193) as a means of verifying and validating the qualitative analysis process. The process adopted for data analysis is referred to as thematic analysis, a variant of the qualitative content analysis (Creswell, 2013: 185). In deciding on the appropriate pre-set themes to use, the authors initially relied on the study’s theoretical construct and aim. This culminated in the choice of the main theme: enablers of UPOS encroachment in townships situated within major cities. Having arrived at a consensus on the main theme, the authors engaged with the transcripts with the objective of identifying the enablers, as mentioned by the participants. In the aftermath of the identification of these enablers, the authors proceeded with the categorization of these enablers into sub-themes based on similarities. They also tried to identify any patterns in the data sets. For instance, they sought to establish if any of the identified enablers were peculiar to a certain urban stakeholder category. Based

Table 1: Participants for UPOS1, UPOS2 and UPOS3

Category Planning professions Code Cases Total

Interviews

Town planning TRP1-4 UPOS1,2,3 4Human settlements HS1-4 UPOS1,2,3 4Parks and cemeteries H1-2 UPOS1,2,3 2

Focus groupWard councillors WC1-2 UPOS1,2,3 2Community members CM1-8 UPOS1,2,3 8

Total 20


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on the entire data set, these enablers were refined into five specific themes which are defined as: Location/access, Education/literacy, Maintenance, Value, and Culture.

5. FINDINGSFindings from the semi-structured and focus-group interviews are the views elucidated by the planning professionals and the community representatives and are shown concurrently according to the final defined themes for the “enablers of Urban Public Open Space Encroachment in Townships situated in Major Cities”.

5.1 Location/accessThis theme captured the participants’ general views on the location/access issues regarding UPOS. Access to UPOS is critical, because it is regarded as one of the challenges that users encounter, depending on its location. Evidence from the interviews indicates that planning of UPOS1 and UPOS2 was mainly done using the opportunistic model of planning. This led to non-functionality and thus encroachment of such spaces. Admittedly, there was consensus among interviewees that UPOS1 and UPOS2 were located in areas that were considered to be problematic and undevelopable during the planning phases. This creates problems of invasion for residential purposes, whilst limiting access for recreational purposes by intending persons. During the focus-group discussions, community members raised concerns about the threat constituted by such open spaces to their safety and security, due to the poor levels of maintenance and attendant state of disrepair evident in a UPOS. A similar sentiment was reported in Nasution and Zahrah (2014: 589). Accordingly, encroachment for residential purposes emerged as a credible option for ensuring that such spaces were not used by miscreants. These suggestions indicate the need for proper evaluation of decisions pertaining to the siting of these UPOS. CSIR

(2005: 1) maintains that open spaces should be appropriately located and vegetated, sufficiently large and interconnected with sustainability function within a neighbourhood. They should also incorporate natural environments. There must be a balance between the natural and the built environments. In situating the UPOS within a settlement, care must be taken to ensure that access is prioritised. Access in this sense relates to the maximum distance that the users should travel for them to use these spaces. The farther away such space is, the greater the propensity for such areas to be encroached upon for residential purposes. To promote access, these UPOS must be connected to the parkways, where possible, and must promote multi-functionality and visual interest. Smaller UPOS can be located within easy walking distance, close to business and community facilities. Rahman and Zhang (2018: 3) outline the criteria of accessibility to UPOS and this includes linkages, walkability, connectedness, and convenience.

5.2 Education/literacyThis theme captured the planners’ and residents’ existing literacy levels on sustainable development of UPOS. Næss (2001: 506) indicates that a neighbourhood must ensure that the residents have their vital needs met in a sustainable way and it must not conflict with sustainable development expected at a global level. In planning for sustainable neighbourhoods, the level of sustainability education/literacy possessed by relevant stakeholders must be considered, especially prior to and during community participation workshops. Cohen et al. (2015: 8710) allude that planners have been challenged by community members with low sustainability literacy levels regarding what is expected to deliver sustainable neighbourhoods. Planners also need to have an in-depth understanding of the value of UPOS in terms of its sustainability. This will improve their appreciation of the levels of sustainability ethos to incorporate

into sustainable neighbourhoods during the planning phases.

Furthermore, such appreciation will be evident in the nature of the UPOS being delivered within their planning contexts. With the gradual disappearance of UPOS in Mangaung townships, the sustainable literacy levels of planners and residents becomes questionable. Likewise, when community representatives were asked similar questions, they displayed low levels of sustainability literacy, feigning ignorance about the consequences of unsustainable neighbourhoods. Their interests bordered on the shortage of affordable housing, as they expressed their preference for residential dwellings instead of having open spaces for recreational purposes.

“We understand the meaning and the importance of parks and we need them in our community, but we need a place to stay” – CM2.

Residents in UPOS1 and UPOS2 showcased their lack of understanding of the usefulness of UPOS but indicated their willingness to be educated on this.

“We need more educational awareness on the benefits of parks so that we can be able to manage them. We have seen a park in Kagisanong that is well maintained, fenced and secure … we also want that in our area” – CM1.

Within UPOS3, residents were engaged in an Adopt-a-Park process, thereby serving as an indication of their awareness about the utility of UPOS in their vicinity. The participants indicated that they maintained the recreational park as a voluntary initiative to foster a sustainable neighbourhood. Therefore, it is evident that residents from UPOS possessed a greater degree of sustainability literacy when compared to their fellow participants. As custodians of planning projects, planners must play a lead role in ensuring that the key objectives of planning are achieved. Planners must promote community sustainability as part of planning education. This can be achieved

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when there is balance between environmental, economic, and social values through the prioritisation of context-reflective trade-offs among the three dimensions. However, the success of such endeavour will be predicated on these professionals’ level of sustainability literacy.

5.3 MaintenanceThis theme captured the participants’ existing opinions on the state of maintenance or disrepair of the UPOS. The present state of maintenance or disrepair of UPOS created a gap for encroachment and thus led to changes in spatial patterns of land use. Most of the UPOS encroached were not maintained properly. The residents opined that this conflict could be avoided if they are allowed to participate, as key stakeholders, in the management of open spaces. Mashalaba (2013: 98) specifies that all stakeholders involved in planning projects must be part of the maintenance of UPOS. Interviewees also believed that the challenge of UPOS disrepair could be curbed by the conduct of open space audits. This audit includes the location, size, characteristics, quality, type, and functioning of the open spaces (Kit Campbell Associates, 2001: 55). The needs of the users, the quality of the physical features, and the spatial structure of the space contribute to the effective use of UPOS. These have a positive impact on people’s quality of life, including their physical and psychological well-being.

In addition, the state of maintenance of the UPOS depends on the level of prioritisation by urban stakeholders. Low prioritisation has led to open space encroachments. This was affirmed by a section of participants.

“Parks in Freedom Square are not maintained as compared to the parks in town. Their state does not show any attractiveness at all and we end up dumping rubbish and they are also used for criminal activities” – CM1.

The SPLUMA (RSA, 2013: 19) maintains that each municipality must have a land-use scheme for enforcing relevant laws. Excerpts

from the interviews and focus groups position UPOS1 and UPOS 2 as an exemplar of the dysfunctional nature of land-use regimes. The interviewees acknowledged that these spaces were poorly maintained, hence the encroachment.

“Most of the open spaces are not developed and maintained and people think that it is land for grabs. They are neglected and this lead[s] to encroachment. Also, the state of open spaces attract[s] people to them and some are desperate for residential sites if they see that nothing is done to them.” – TP1.

Still, from a town-planning perspective, the challenge of the disrepair of UPOS lies in the absence of strong support by the municipality and budget constraints for open spaces. This was found to be the major barrier for the state of maintenance. The interviewees also raised the issue of low levels of prioritisation. During planning, other land uses such as residential, business and community facilities are given high priority in terms of the monetary value with which they are associated.

Other challenges mentioned by the interviewees include lack of resources, poor management, and dysfunctional by-laws for open spaces. HS1 highlighted this, stating:

“Funding for management of public open spaces is lacking, therefore, in order to prioritize such spaces, a special grant must be set aside to manage them. Also, adopting the catalystic programmes will assist in curbing the issue of low prioritization of public open spaces”.

The Adopt-a-Park process was raised as an option for better maintenance of the UPOS. This has been successful in UPOS3, where the volunteers to the process were assisted by the municipality in the form of issuing the equipment for managing the recreational park. Surprisingly, community members of UPOS1 and UPOS2 commented that the state of the UPOS within their neighbourhood was a major concern, as compared to UPOS3, which is secure and well-managed. They are willing to be educated

on how to value and manage the open spaces that are still vacant in their community. The existence of such levels of willingness has been highlighted in a similar study (Abbasi et al., 2016: 204).

5.4 ValueThis theme captured the participants’ existing opinions regarding the value conflicts on the UPOS utility to the community. Carmona et al. (2002: 147) state that urban stakeholders have different perspectives about the urban environments, in general. Their perspectives range from economic, to social, and to environmental values in planning. In addition, the different values of urban stakeholders lead to value conflicts in planning and managing sustainable neighbourhoods. According to Haaland and Van den Bosch (2015: 764), there must be an extensive interaction among the urban stakeholders involved in planning projects. This can help curb the incidence of UPOS encroachment. A balance theory, as stated by Luomala, Laaksonen and Leipamaa (2004: 568), is used to understand how the urban stakeholders can resolve value conflicts on the UPOS utility to community. Drawing from the interviews, values such as planning, environmental, economic, recreation, housing, and cultural experiences were identified. For instance, participants CM1 and CM2 reiterated that:

“We cannot prioritise parks while we do not have houses”.

“It is better if these spaces are used for housing because they are not safe spaces?”.

Obviously, planners face problems in managing these conflicts. This much was attested to by TP3:

“Truth is, there are value conflicts attached to the value of public open spaces. The community members value open spaces for housing as it is their primary need, not open spaces. People staying in this park encroached because they are in desperate need of housing. Another perception includes economic value … As town planners, we are tired of fighting, if we are instructed to


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subdivide municipal land, we comply. All the blame goes to us as town planners”.

UPOS1 and UPOS2 were earmarked for recreational purposes but are currently used for residential purposes. The interviewees indicated that these open spaces are currently settlements for infill planning. Amendment of the General Plan by means of the closure of a park and the rezoning process is followed to accommodate people who have encroached upon these spaces. Surprisingly, community members for UPOS1 and UPOS2 lamented that they understood the value of open spaces, but their priority was housing as their primary need, not open spaces. This was buttressed by CM2’s assertion:

“We have realized that only two parks are left in the whole of Freedom Square and we have also failed ourselves in that we dump rubbish there. We can form a team and manage these spaces, but our challenge is that we cannot manage parks (which we see just as a desert) while we do not have proper housing (which is the main course)”.

UPOS3 is used for recreational purposes by the community. Interviewees agreed that this was one of the successful recreational parks in Mangaung townships that had been adopted and maintained by the community members.

5.5 CultureThis theme captured the participants’ existing views on the lack of accommodation of cultural/contextual peculiarities of the community in the design of UPOS. UPOS have a cultural component that is usually connected to the prevailing contextual social and environmental values. Different approaches to planning, design and management of UPOS are used to promote ethnicity. These include “symbolic reference, experiential reference and facility provision, with the proviso that the approach taken should respond to the local community, the site and the context” (Woolley, 2003: 31). Furthermore, these approaches play a crucial role

for people from different cultural backgrounds. UPOS must also respond to the needs of the diverse cultural groups and their cultural contexts. The cultural aspects for UPOS influence the perceptions and preferences of the users (Özgüner, 2011: 600). CM2 highlighted this challenge when he stated that

“We are people of different cultures … if we reside in flats where we cannot claim that this is our property, how are we expected to perform ancestral rituals. How will we be recognised by our ancestors if we do not have proper yards? Where will we perform any cultural ceremony?”

Planners must, therefore, understand the different cultural contexts of the communities for which they are planning. This is important in developing the appropriate planning, design, and management strategies for the UPOS in sustainable neighbourhoods. Due to different perceptions on the utility of the UPOS, involvement of different urban stakeholders in the design of these spaces is important. The inability to communicate properly among different urban stakeholders involved in the planning, design, and management of UPOS has created challenges for open space planning. This includes lack of accommodation of cultural peculiarities of the community in designing UPOS. The interviewees confirmed that there was a disconnect or gap in communication regarding the planning of UPOS1 and UPOS2.

Furthermore, the participants highlighted the lack of collaboration among stakeholders.

“They do not regard us as essential. We have a role to play in providing or enhancing recreation and help[ing] the communities – CM4

Such collaboration has been deemed important for fostering the successful delivery of urban open spaces (Mwaniki, 2019: 1587-1599). Most of the planning projects are outsourced to planning consultants who are not knowledgeable about the project area. Evidence gathered from the focus groups shows that community members from UPOS1 and UPOS2

were not involved in planning and design of planning project. From the foregoing, this challenge is linked to non-participatory level where the community does not have a voice. Professionals involved in the planning and design of UPOS1 and UPOS2 were, therefore, criticised by the community, because they did not consider the needs and preferences of the residents. One of the participants (CM2) enthused:

“Even with just public meetings, sometimes we are side-lined and be told that the meeting is only for people staying in Freedom Square and this is confusing because we are part of this area but we are living in shacks”.

However, this perspective was countered by an interviewee who indicated that the participation of community members in most instances was non-productive. According to this interviewee (H2),

“[i]t was going to be ideal if the whole community was involved in community participation, otherwise, currently it just becomes the issue of compliance. Not everyone is represented at this stage. A few individuals or classes form part of the participation and because it takes place during the day, some people come drunk … If you look into the outcome of that meeting, nothing is tangible from it”.

Residents from UPOS3 formed part of the planning and design of the recreational park. The interviewees indicated that this was a project that had been identified by the community as an Integrated Development Planning. The preferences and expectations of the community were reached.

In summary, the enablers for UPOS encroachment can be listed as the lack of access, low levels of sustainability literacy, poor maintenance of the sites, poor management of the extant value conflicts between the community and the planning professionals, and the non-accommodation of cultural/contextual peculiarities of the community during the planning and design phases of the UPOS lifecycle.

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6. CONCLUSION

This study sought to gauge the perceptions of different urban stakeholders regarding urban public open space planning. Planners are faced with theoretical and practical problems in achieving the key objectives of planning; that is, the creation of a sustainable neighbourhood. It is quite clear that different urban stakeholders involved in planning and management of UPOS have different perceptions regarding the value and usefulness of UPOS. These perceptions include planning, environmental, social, and housing values. The different perceptions have given rise to value conflicts and encroachment on UPOS. Evidence from the case studies highlights attributes resulting in the encroachment of UPOS. These include urban stakeholders’ lack of understanding about the values of UPOS, dysfunctional use of land-use regimes, and disconnect among different urban stakeholders. Accordingly, it can be deduced that different perceptions of the urban stakeholders regarding urban open space planning impact on the encroachment of these spaces. From the study’s findings, it is evident that the planner has a critical role to play in ensuring the effective planning, design, and implementation of the strategic plans, policies, and frameworks for open spaces. Planners can adopt the probable strategies to eliminate the incidence of encroachment on open spaces. From the foregoing, further research aims at developing and validating an appropriate framework for urban open space design and management by urban planning practitioners.

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How to cite: Morgan, N. 2020. Review. Gone to ground: A history of environment and infrastructure in Dar es Salaam. Town and Regional Planning, no.77, pp. 149-149.

Prof. Naòmi Morgan, Departments of Afrikaans and Dutch; German and French, University of the Free State, P.O. Box 339, Bloemfontein, South Africa, 9300. Phone: 051 4013568, email: <[email protected]>, ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6226-291X.

Gone to ground: A history of environment and infrastructure in Dar es Salaam

Review by: Prof. Naòmi Morgan


Dar es Salaam has always held a particular fascination for urbanists and environmentalists alike. In the wake of the monumental publication edited by Bernard Calas, From Dar es Salaam to Bongoland. Urban mutations in Tanzania (Mkuki Na Nyota Publishers, 2010) comes this major contribution by Emily Brownell, a lecturer in Environmental History at the University of Edinburgh.

In Gone to ground – A history of environment and infrastructure in Dar es Salaam, Brownell focuses on the central tension between city and countryside to narrate the story of the city’s environment and infrastructure. The title refers to how urbanites settled in the urban periphery to escape the state’s policing of urban space. Brownell’s analysis of the city’s changing landscape during the 1970s and 1980s is also valid for many of South Africa’s populous cities: she chronicles the perpetual transit between city and periphery, the quest for housing, food and transportation. It is a narrative about making do with what is available and about ensuring one’s own survival.

Although the story of Dar es Salaam must be read against the scramble for Africa, Julius Nyerere’s forceful re-enactment of a socialist rural future had an even greater impact. Nyerere’s “blunt, antiurban rhetoric” occupies

centre stage in many histories about the city’s postcolonial phase of development.

Brownell’s book is organized thematically around the struggles and opportunities of the Dar residents during the period in question, with what she terms the “quotidian processes of city making”, as illustrated by her chapter headings. “Decentering Dar” is an overview of Tanzanian socialist development or ujamaa at a time when Dar and other cities were viewed as crisis sites. “Belongings” describes how families found material and land, whereas “Building” explores building politics and practices. Chapter 4, “Waiting”, investigates how infrastructures of transportation shaped definitions of labour in the city as well as urban landscapes “in ways that unfolded daily, seasonally, and ultimately over decades”. “Wasting and Wanting” makes for particularly good reading from a South African perspective: “What should Third World manufacturing look like, and where was the sometimes imperceptible line between citizens who conserved and citizens who hoarded?”. The final chapter, “Fuelling Crisis”, chronicles the city’s charcoal market within the broader global moment of the fuelwood crisis that emerged alongside the oil crisis.

Brownell ends on a positive note: “Rather than predicting a future spent in a state of ongoing crisis, historians that highlight the ways communities have shaped the landscapes of African cities when plans go awry might instead suggest that urban African cities have a deep capacity to solve problems and re-imagine the present.” (p. 186). It remains to be seen whether the same can be said about urban decay in South Africa; there may be lessons to be learnt from the urban history of Dar es Salaam.

Author: Emily Brownell

Publisher: University of Pittsburgh Press

ISBN: 9780822946113

Date: 2020

Research field: Environmental and Earth Sciences

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The EditorTown and Regional PlanningThe University of the Free StateP.O. Box 339Bloemfontein, South Africa9300

E-mail addresses: [email protected]

Web-address: http://journals.ufs.ac.za/index.php/trp

Contents • InhoudsopgaweDecember 2020 (77)

Town and Regional PlanningUniversity of the Free State

P.O.Box 339Bloemfontein

9300South Africa

[email protected]

Published by the Department of Urban and Regional Planning,University of the Free State, Bloemfontein, South Africa

Uitgegee deur die Departement van Stads- en Streekbeplanning,Universiteit van die Vrystaat, Bloemfontein, Suid-Afrika

E phatlalatswa ke Lefapha la Meralo ya Ditoropo le Mabatowa,Yunivesithing ya Freistata, Bloemfontein, Africa Borwa

Stads- en StreekbeplanningUniversiteit van die Vrystaat

Posbus 339Bloemfontein

9300Suid-Afrika

[email protected]


Production by SUN MeDIA Bloemfontein

Contents • InhoudsopgaweEditoral • Redakteursbrief • Lengolo la phatlalatso Hangwelani Hope Magidimisha iii

Articles on resilience • Artikels oor veerkragtigheid

Regional resilience in peripheral South Africa: Mariske van Aswegen, 1 The Northern Cape case Francois Pieter Retief Ernst Drewes Scoping the nexus between climate change and Patrick Hosea 18 water-security realities in rural South Africa Ernest KhalemaReflections on how the implementation of sustainable P.J. Geraghty 31 development goals across the UK and Ireland can influence the mainstreaming of these goals in English planning practiceBuilding resilience to climate change in vulnerable communities: Anele Mthembu 42 A case study of uMkhanyakude district municipality Syathokoza HlopheTrends in urban planning, climate adaptation Garth Myers 57 and resilience in Zanzibar, Tanzania Jonathan Walz Aboud JumbeLand use land cover change and land surface Oluwasinaayomi Kasim 71 emissivity in Ibadan, Nigeria Samuel Agbola Michael OweniweBuilding a food-resilient city through urban agriculture: Akeem Ola 89 The case of Ilorin, NigeriaIntroducing the Green Book: A practical planning tool Willemien van Niekerk 103 for adapting South African settlements to climate change Amy Pieterse Alize le Roux

Articles • Artikels

Structuring South Africa’s national economic space: André Brand 120 A regional corridor network model approach Ernst DrewesMulti-stakeholder perspectives on approaches for addressing Lindelwa Sinxadi 137 the incidence of urban public open space encroachment: Bankole Awuzie The case of Freedom Square, Bloemfontein Maléne Campbell

Book review • Boekresensie

Gone to ground: A history of environment and Prof. Naòmi Morgan 149 infrastructure in Dar es Salaam

Notes for authors • Inligting aan outeurs