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    Growth of Low Cost Carriersin Europe and AsiaGrowth of Low Cost Carriersin Europe and Asia

    Eighteenth Annual Aircraft Finance Conference Eighteenth Annual Aircraft Finance Conference

    Presented by:

    David H. Treitel

    Chairman and CEO SH&E, Inc.

    Presented by:

    David H. Treitel

    Chairman and CEO SH&E, Inc.

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    1

    Presentation OverviewPresentation Overview

    Low Cost Carrier Trends

    United States

    Europe

    Asia-Pacific

    Market Opportunity & Implications

    Low Cost Carrier Trends

    United States

    Europe

    Asia-Pacific

    Market Opportunity & Implications

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    Section 1Section 1

    Low Cost Carrier TrendsLow Cost Carrier Trends

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    3

    These Are Threatening Times for Legacy CarriersThese Are Threatening Times for Legacy Carriers

    Low Cost Carriers (LCCs) have the resources tocontinue expanding at a rapid pace

    Even with renegotiated labor contracts, the LegacyCarriers can not approach the LCC costs

    As LCCs Expand Their Point-to-Point Services, Demand isRemoved from the Traffic Pool Available to Network Carriers

    Unable to generate a sufficient revenue premium theweakest Legacy Carriers have filed for bankruptcy

    Low Cost Carriers (LCCs) have the resources tocontinue expanding at a rapid pace

    Even with renegotiated labor contracts, the LegacyCarriers can not approach the LCC costs

    As LCCs Expand Their Point-to-Point Services, Demand isRemoved from the Traffic Pool Available to Network Carriers

    Unable to generate a sufficient revenue premium theweakest Legacy Carriers have filed for bankruptcy

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    4

    Since 2001, the LCCs Have Prospered While LegacyCarriers Have StruggledSince 2001, the LCCs Have Prospered While LegacyCarriers Have Struggled

    Frequency

    Routes

    Traffic

    Revenues

    Fares

    Profitability

    Frequency

    Routes

    Traffic

    Revenues

    Fares

    Profitability

    Fares

    Traffic

    Revenues

    Profitability

    Fares

    Traffic

    Revenues

    Profitability

    LCCs Have Been the Clear Winners

    LEGACY CARRIERS LCCs

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    5

    Competition Between Legacy and Low Cost CarriersIs Being Waged on Five Key FrontsCompetition Between Legacy and Low Cost CarriersIs Being Waged on Five Key Fronts

    Size and Network

    Growth and Access to Capital

    Pricing Structure andInfluence

    Cost Structure

    Product/Brand

    Size and Network

    Growth and Access to Capital

    Pricing Structure andInfluence

    Cost Structure

    Product/Brand

    Legacy Advantage

    Low Cost Advantage

    Battleground

    Low Cost Advantage

    Battleground

    Legacy Advantage

    Low Cost Advantage

    Battleground

    Low Cost Advantage

    Battleground

    Competitive FactorCompetitive Factor Winner or LoserWinner or Loser

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    The LCCs Have Large Virtually Insurmountable StructuralCost AdvantagesThe LCCs Have Large Virtually Insurmountable StructuralCost Advantages

    Source: US DOT, Form 41Source: US DOT, Form 41

    $0.00

    $0.02

    $0.04

    $0.06

    $0.08

    $0.10

    $0.12

    $0.14

    U S A i r

    A m e r i

    c a n

    C o n t i

    n e n t a l

    N o r t h

    w e s t

    D e l t a

    U n i t e

    d S o

    u t h w e s

    t

    A T A

    J e t B

    l u e

    1Q2003 1Q2004

    $0.00

    $0.02

    $0.04

    $0.06

    $0.08

    $0.10

    $0.12

    $0.14

    U S A i r

    A m e r i c a n

    C o n t i

    n e n t a l

    N o r t h

    w e s t

    D e l t a

    U n i t e

    d S o

    u t h w e s

    t

    A T A

    J e t B

    l u e

    1Q2003 1Q2004

    Domestic CASM1Q2003 1Q2004 Domestic CASM

    1Q2003 1Q2004

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    Low Cost Carrier Growth Has Traditionally FollowedRegulatory ReformsLow Cost Carrier Growth Has Traditionally FollowedRegulatory Reforms

    Late 1970s/Early 1980s inthe USLate 1970s/Early 1980s inthe US

    Southwest goes interstate,People Express and othersform

    1991 re-branding ofRyanair as low cost carrier

    Expansion of low-costcarriers to the Continentwith the final deregulationof the market

    Southwest goes interstate,People Express and othersform

    1991 re-branding ofRyanair as low cost carrier

    Expansion of low-costcarriers to the Continentwith the final deregulationof the market

    1990s in Europe1990s in Europe

    Early 1990s in UKEarly 1990s in UK

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    8

    The LCC Phenomenon New To Asia but A Maturing Marketin Europe and North AmericaThe LCC Phenomenon New To Asia but A Maturing Marketin Europe and North America

    North AmericaSlow recovery from September

    11 th Expansion of InternationalService Low cost carriers continue togain share in US and Canada Legacy carriers areresponding (Delta Song, AirCanada, United Ted) withLCCs LCC Market Share: 30%

    North America Slow recovery from September11 th Expansion of InternationalService Low cost carriers continue togain share in US and Canada Legacy carriers areresponding (Delta Song, AirCanada, United Ted) withLCCs LCC Market Share: 30%

    Europe Continued Low CostExpansion in UK/WesternEurope East-West trafficsimulation because ofexpanded EU LCC form in Eastern andCentral Europe LCC Market Share: 17%

    Europe Continued Low CostExpansion in UK/WesternEurope East-West trafficsimulation because ofexpanded EU LCC form in Eastern andCentral Europe LCC Market Share: 17%

    Pacific Rim/Australia Relatively infant market LCCs Have started inmore liberalenvironments Australia,Singapore, Malaysia,

    Thailand India has announced afew low cost start ups LCC Market Share 4%

    Pacific Rim/Australia Relatively infant market LCCs Have started inmore liberalenvironments Australia,Singapore, Malaysia,

    Thailand India has announced afew low cost start ups LCC Market Share 4%

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    9

    If LCC Penetration in Europe and Asia reaches US Levels,They Will Need Aircraft Worth $170bn - $240bn Over the

    Next 20 Years

    If LCC Penetration in Europe and Asia reaches US Levels,They Will Need Aircraft Worth $170bn - $240bn Over the

    Next 20 Years

    Source: SH&E Analysis, 2004.Source: SH&E Analysis, 2004.

    0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000

    Asia Pacific

    Europe

    0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000

    Asia Pacific

    Europe

    Estimated LCC Single-Aisle and Regional Jet Fleet Growth2004-2023

    Estimated LCC Single-Aisle and Regional Jet Fleet Growth2004-2023

    $97.0 bn -$140 bn

    $70.0 bn -$100 bn

    2,000 2,400

    1,350 1,900

    Value ($b)

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    Section 2Section 2

    United StatesUnited States

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    11

    Today Low-Fare Service Accounts for Almost 30% of theU.S. Domestic MarketToday Low-Fare Service Accounts for Almost 30% of theU.S. Domestic Market

    8%10% 10%

    12%14%

    16%18% 18%

    19%

    21% 22%23%

    24%

    26%28%

    Aug90

    Aug91

    Aug92

    Aug93

    Aug94

    Aug95

    Aug96

    Aug97

    Aug98

    Aug99

    Aug00

    Aug01

    Aug02

    Aug03

    Aug04

    8%10% 10%

    12%14%

    16%18% 18%

    19%

    21% 22%23%

    24%

    26%28%

    Aug90

    Aug91

    Aug92

    Aug93

    Aug94

    Aug95

    Aug96

    Aug97

    Aug98

    Aug99

    Aug00

    Aug01

    Aug02

    Aug03

    Aug04

    Source: OAG Schedule TapesSource: OAG Schedule TapesLow cost carrier share of Intra-Canadian seats exceeds 30%

    Low cost carrier share of Intra-Canadian seats exceeds 30%

    U.S. Low Fare Carrier Share of Total U.S. Nonstop SeatsU.S. Low Fare Carrier Share of Total U.S. Nonstop Seats

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    12

    Average Unit Costs for LCCs Remain About A Third Lowerthan Those of Legacy CarriersAverage Unit Costs for LCCs Remain About A Third Lowerthan Those of Legacy Carriers

    Source: US DOT, Form 41, 2004.Source: US DOT, Form 41, 2004.

    4

    5

    6

    7

    8

    9

    10

    11

    12

    13

    400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 1,100 1,200 1,300 1,400

    Trip Length (miles)

    U n i t C o s t s ( i n

    c e n t s )

    JetBlue

    AirTran

    Southwest Spirit

    AmericanContinental

    Delta

    Northwest

    US Airways

    Domestic Unit Cost versus Trip Length for Select Legacy and Low Cost CarriersYE 2Q2004

    Domestic Unit Cost versus Trip Length for Select Legacy and Low Cost CarriersYE 2Q2004

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    13

    Overall, Less Than 55% of the LCC Cost Advantage ComesFrom Labor Cost SavingsOverall, Less Than 55% of the LCC Cost Advantage ComesFrom Labor Cost Savings

    13.6%

    22.0%

    27.1%

    42.3%

    47.5%

    55.0%

    75.9%

    30.8%

    0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

    Flying Operations

    General & Administrative

    Maintenance

    Aircraft & Traffic Servicing

    Promotion & Sales

    Depreciation & Amortization

    Passenger Service

    Overall

    13.6%

    22.0%

    27.1%

    42.3%

    47.5%

    55.0%

    75.9%

    30.8%

    0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

    Flying Operations

    General & Administrative

    Maintenance

    Aircraft & Traffic Servicing

    Promotion & Sales

    Depreciation & Amortization

    Passenger Service

    Overall

    Cost Advantage of US Low Cost Carriers vs. US Legacy Carriers(Domestic CASM)

    2Q2004

    Cost Advantage of US Low Cost Carriers vs. US Legacy Carriers(Domestic CASM)

    2Q2004

    Source: US DOT, Form 41Source: US DOT, Form 41

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    14

    LCCs Will Continue Growing More Rapidly Than Legacy

    Carriers

    LCCs Will Continue Growing More Rapidly Than LegacyCarriers

    0%

    5%

    10%

    15%

    20%

    25%

    30%

    35%

    40%

    45%

    50%

    Low Cost Regional Legacy

    0%

    5%

    10%

    15%

    20%

    25%

    30%

    35%

    40%

    45%

    50%

    Low Cost Regional Legacy

    Source: ACAS DatabaseSource: ACAS Database

    Aircraft on Order as a % of Current Fleet, US CarriersSeptember 2004

    Aircraft on Order as a % of Current Fleet, US CarriersSeptember 2004

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    15

    The Trend of North America LCC Penetration SuggestsThat It Will Reach 50%The Trend of North America LCC Penetration SuggestsThat It Will Reach 50%

    LowCost

    31%

    Other3%

    Majors

    66%

    Majors

    40%

    Other10%

    LowCost50%

    Domestic Seat Market Share By Carrier TypeDecember 2004 vs. the Future (estimated) Domestic Seat Market Share By Carrier TypeDecember 2004 vs. the Future (estimated)

    Source: OAG Schedule Tapes. SH&E Analysis, 2004.Source: OAG Schedule Tapes. SH&E Analysis, 2004.

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    Section 3Section 3

    EuropeEurope

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    17

    The European Domestic Market Has Also Witnessed RapidGrowth of Low Cost CarriersThe European Domestic Market Has Also Witnessed RapidGrowth of Low Cost Carriers

    1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%2% 3%

    4% 4%5%

    6%

    9%

    14%

    17%

    Aug90

    Aug91

    Aug92

    Aug93

    Aug94

    Aug95

    Aug96

    Aug97

    Aug98

    Aug99

    Aug00

    Aug01

    Aug02

    Aug03

    Dec04

    1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%2% 3%

    4% 4%5%

    6%

    9%

    14%

    17%

    Aug90

    Aug91

    Aug92

    Aug93

    Aug94

    Aug95

    Aug96

    Aug97

    Aug98

    Aug99

    Aug00

    Aug01

    Aug02

    Aug03

    Dec04

    Source: OAG Schedule TapesSource: OAG Schedule Tapes

    NB: Excludes charter seats which have historicallyNB: Excludes charter seats which have historically

    carried up to a quarter of intracarried up to a quarter of intra --Europe demandEurope demand

    European Low Cost Carrier Share of Total Nonstop Intra-Europe SeatsEuropean Low Cost Carrier Share of Total Nonstop Intra-Europe Seats

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    18

    Ryanairs Network Development Is An Example of the LowCost Carrier PenetrationRyanairs Network Development Is An Example of the LowCost Carrier Penetration

    August 2000August 2000 May 2004May 2004

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    European LCCs easyJet and Ryanair Are Expected To Leadin Capacity GrowthEuropean LCCs easyJet and Ryanair Are Expected To Leadin Capacity Growth

    Source: UBS, 2004.Source: UBS, 2004.

    -10%

    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    50%

    e a s y

    J e t

    R y a n

    a i r

    F i n n a

    i r

    A u s t r

    i a n A i r l i n

    e s

    A i r F r a n

    c e

    L u f t h

    a n s a

    I b e r i a

    K L M

    S A S

    B r i t i s

    h A i r w a y

    s

    A l i t a l

    i a

    1997-2002 2003-05E

    -10%

    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    50%

    e a s y

    J e t

    R y a n

    a i r

    F i n n a

    i r

    A u s t r

    i a n A i r l i n

    e s

    A i r F r a n

    c e

    L u f t h

    a n s a

    I b e r i a

    K L M

    S A S

    B r i t i s

    h A i r w a y

    s

    A l i t a l

    i a

    1997-2002 2003-05E

    European Carriers Capacity Growth Forecast1997-2002 and 2003-2005E

    European Carriers Capacity Growth Forecast1997-2002 and 2003-2005E

    N/A

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    20

    Upstart LCCs and National Airlines Transforming intoNo-Frills Carriers Have Plans for Significant Growth in 2004Upstart LCCs and National Airlines Transforming intoNo-Frills Carriers Have Plans for Significant Growth in 2004

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    21

    LCCs in Europe Have A Significant Labor Cost Advantageand Labor EfficiencyLCCs in Europe Have A Significant Labor Cost Advantageand Labor Efficiency

    Source: Company Reports, 2004.Source: Company Reports, 2004.

    0

    2,000

    4,000

    6,000

    8,000

    10,000

    12,000

    Ryanair easyJet Virgin Exp Lufthansa Austrian Alitalia BritishAirways

    Finnair Air France KLM0

    0.5

    1

    1.5

    2

    2.5

    3

    3.5

    4

    0

    2,000

    4,000

    6,000

    8,000

    10,000

    12,000

    Ryanair easyJet Virgin Exp Lufthansa Austrian Alitalia BritishAirways

    Finnair Air France KLM0

    0.5

    1

    1.5

    2

    2.5

    3

    3.5

    4

    Passengers Served Per Employee and Labor CASK Europe2003

    Passengers Served Per Employee and Labor CASK Europe2003

    Low Cost Low Cost Legacy Legacy

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    22

    Average Unit Costs for European LCCs Are More Than 40%Lower than Those of European Major CarriersAverage Unit Costs for European LCCs Are More Than 40%Lower than Those of European Major Carriers

    Source: Company Reports, 2004.Source: Company Reports, 2004.

    0

    2

    4

    6

    8

    10

    12

    400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800

    Trip Length (miles)

    U n i t C o s t s ( i n

    c e n t s )

    easyJet

    Ryanair

    Austrian

    Finnair

    VirginExpress

    LufthansaKLM

    BA

    Unit Cost versus Trip Length for Select European Legacy and Low Cost Carriers2003

    Unit Cost versus Trip Length for Select European Legacy and Low Cost Carriers2003

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    Section 4Section 4

    Asia-PacificAsia-Pacific

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    24

    Asian Environment Offers Special Challenges to Low CostAirline ModelsAsian Environment Offers Special Challenges to Low CostAirline Models

    Asian legacy carriers typically already

    have lower costs than large European andNorth American carriers

    Direct-to-consumer distribution strategiesmay be harder to implement in Asia

    Distances between major cities in Asiatend to be longer, pointing to differentfleet tradeoffs, product offerings etc

    Bilateral agreements could limitextensive/rapid service development

    Asian legacy carriers typically already

    have lower costs than large European andNorth American carriers

    Direct-to-consumer distribution strategiesmay be harder to implement in Asia

    Distances between major cities in Asiatend to be longer, pointing to differentfleet tradeoffs, product offerings etc

    Bilateral agreements could limitextensive/rapid service development

    Lower Cost Structures

    Lower Cost Structures

    Stronger Agency Role

    Stronger Stronger Agency Role Agency Role

    Longer Distances Longer

    Distances

    Limited Route Rights

    Limited Route Limited Route Rights Rights

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    25

    But, Low Cost Carrier Activity Is Growing in South EastAsiaBut, Low Cost Carrier Activity Is Growing in South EastAsia

    Recent Liberalization of Some Markets, Particularlyin South East Asia

    Strong Economic Growth

    Ready Access to Capital

    Newly Emerging Government Support for AirlineCompetition

    Over 500,000,000 People in 240 Cities and 130 Cities With aPopulation Base of 1 Million +

    Some Underutilized Regional Airports

    Recent Liberalization of Some Markets, Particularlyin South East Asia

    Strong Economic Growth

    Ready Access to Capital

    Newly Emerging Government Support for AirlineCompetition

    Over 500,000,000 People in 240 Cities and 130 Cities With aPopulation Base of 1 Million +

    Some Underutilized Regional Airports

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    26

    And Now Accounts For Under 5% of Seats, Showing SimilarGrowth to Europe in the Early 90sAnd Now Accounts For Under 5% of Seats, Showing SimilarGrowth to Europe in the Early 90s

    0.8% 1.1% 2.2%

    4.3%

    Aug 01 Aug 02 Aug 03 Dec 04

    0.8% 1.1%2.2%

    4.3%

    Aug 01 Aug 02 Aug 03 Dec 04

    Source: OAG Schedule TapesSource: OAG Schedule Tapes

    Low Cost Carrier Share ofTotal Nonstop Intra-Far East Asia/Australian Seats

    Low Cost Carrier Share ofTotal Nonstop Intra-Far East Asia/Australian Seats

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    27

    Air Asia and Virgin Blue Have Lower Costs Than TheirRegional Legacy Carrier CounterpartsAir Asia and Virgin Blue Have Lower Costs Than TheirRegional Legacy Carrier Counterparts

    CASKs for Australian and Southeast Asian Carriers2003

    CASKs for Australian and Southeast Asian Carriers2003

    0.0

    1.0

    2.0

    3.0

    4.0

    5.0

    6.0

    7.0

    8.0

    Qantas Virgin BlueSingapore

    Airlines Thai AirwaysMalaysian

    Airlines Air Asia

    0.0

    1.0

    2.0

    3.0

    4.0

    5.0

    6.0

    7.0

    8.0

    Qantas Virgin BlueSingapore

    Airlines Thai AirwaysMalaysian

    Airlines Air Asia

    Source: Company Reports, 2004.Source: Company Reports, 2004.

    Southeast Asia Southeast Asia Australia Australia

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    28

    Several Independent LCCs Are in a Strong First-to-MarketPositionSeveral Independent LCCs Are in a Strong First-to-MarketPosition

    Malaysias Independent Carrier Serves 10 Domestic Markets.Began International Service to Thailand in November, Adding19 Aircraft (737-300s) by December 2004

    Orient Thais Success with LCC Service on IntlRoutes Spurred Development of a Domestic Airline,One-Two-Go based in Bangkok

    Philippines LCC Operating Two Airlines in One from bothCebu (F28 aircraft) and Manila (DC-9 aircraft)

    Received its First Two A320s in March 2004, In June StartedServices at Changis Terminal in Singapore

    Thai AirAsia - Joint venture with AirAsia and Thai interests;Reported Profits in its 2 nd Month of Service, 86%Load Factors

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    29

    However Several Established Carriers in the Region AreCompeting With LCC OperationsHowever Several Established Carriers in the Region AreCompeting With LCC Operations

    Virgin launched Low Cost Carrier inSoutheast Asia, first to market in Australia

    Major investor in Singapore-Based, LowCost; Carrier Starting by year end 2004,the 2 nd Low Cost Operation in One Year forQantas

    Tiger Airways (SIA owned). First carrierto commit to the new Low Cost CarrierTerminal at the Singapore Changi Airport

    Launched Nok Air, a Budget CarrierServing Domestic and Regional Markets

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    Section 5Section 5

    Implications/MarketOpportunityImplications/MarketOpportunity

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    31

    The Worlds Fleet Will More Than Double Over The Next 20Years, With Asia-Pacific Leading In Expected Order ValueThe Worlds Fleet Will More Than Double Over The Next 20Years, With Asia-Pacific Leading In Expected Order Value

    Source: Boeing Current Market Outlook 2004.Source: Boeing Current Market Outlook 2004.

    0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000

    Africa and Middle East

    Latin America

    Asia-Pacific

    Europe

    North America

    Single-Aisle and RJsTwin-Aisle747 and Larger

    0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000

    Africa and Middle East

    Latin America

    Asia-Pacific

    Europe

    North America

    Single-Aisle and RJsTwin-Aisle747 and Larger

    $561.9

    $529.5

    $87.5

    $135.2

    Estimated Fleet Growth (New and Replacements)2004-2023E

    Estimated Fleet Growth (New and Replacements)2004-2023E

    $673.0

    Value ($b)

    If LCC Penetration in Europe and Asia reaches US LevelsIf LCC Penetration in Europe and Asia reaches US Levels

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    32

    If LCC Penetration in Europe and Asia reaches US Levels,They Will Need Aircraft Worth $170bn - $240bn Over the

    Next 20 Yrs..

    If LCC Penetration in Europe and Asia reaches US Levels,They Will Need Aircraft Worth $170bn - $240bn Over the

    Next 20 Yrs..

    Source: SH&E Analysis, 2004.Source: SH&E Analysis, 2004.

    0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000

    Asia Pacific

    Europe

    0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000

    Asia Pacific

    Europe

    Estimated LCC Single-Aisle and Regional Jet Fleet Growth2004-2023E

    Estimated LCC Single-Aisle and Regional Jet Fleet Growth2004-2023E

    $97.0 bn -$140 bn

    $70.0 bn -

    $100 bn

    2,000 2,400

    1,350 1,900

    Value ($b)

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    33

    Already Several Non US Low Cost Carriers Have MadeSignificant Orders for New AircraftAlready Several Non US Low Cost Carriers Have MadeSignificant Orders for New Aircraft

    easyJet - 120 A319s

    Ryanair - 153 Boeing 737s

    AirAsia - Expected 80 A320 aircraft order from Airbus

    Jetstar Airways Up to 60 A320s

    Cebu Pacific 12 A310s

    Source: ACAS Database, 2004.Source: ACAS Database, 2004.

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    34

    LCCs Will Expand Into More Market SegmentsLCCs Will Expand Into More Market Segments

    LCCs are successfully penetrating long haul markets in theUS and Europe

    jetBlue and America West are in transcontinental markets

    Ryanair and easyJet have many flights longer then 3 hours

    LCCs are expanding into the 70-100 aircraft that will servedifferent markets

    There are plans for new LCCs to serve long haul

    international markets with twin-aisle and larger single aisleaircraft

    LCCs are successfully penetrating long haul markets in the

    US and Europe jetBlue and America West are in transcontinental markets

    Ryanair and easyJet have many flights longer then 3 hours

    LCCs are expanding into the 70-100 aircraft that will servedifferent markets

    There are plans for new LCCs to serve long haul

    international markets with twin-aisle and larger single aisleaircraft

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    35

    LCCs Will Continue to Force The Industry To RestructureLCCs Will Continue to Force The Industry To Restructure

    The traveling public has voted they accept, sometimes

    prefer, the LCC brand and product

    LCC penetration is gradual in the US, the effects onLegacy carriers have grown as LCCs have expanded

    As more barriers fall, LCC influence will become even moredominant

    Regulatory reform eliminated the main barrier

    Internet broke the Distribution barrier

    New aircraft helped offset the Safety barrier

    The traveling public has voted they accept, sometimes

    prefer, the LCC brand and product

    LCC penetration is gradual in the US, the effects onLegacy carriers have grown as LCCs have expanded

    As more barriers fall, LCC influence will become even moredominant

    Regulatory reform eliminated the main barrier

    Internet broke the Distribution barrier

    New aircraft helped offset the Safety barrier