việt nam và bất ổn kinh tế vĩ mô 2013
DESCRIPTION
Việt Nam và bất ổn kinh tế vĩ mô 2013TRANSCRIPT
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12/26/2013
Thin Anh Tun 1
Thin Anh Tun
Chng trnh Ging dy Kinh t Fulbright
1
Ngun: World Development Indicators
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12/26/2013
Thin Anh Tun 2
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12/26/2013
Thin Anh Tun 3
-6.00
-4.00
-2.00
-
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
20
05
Jan
20
05
May
20
05
Sep
20
06
Jan
20
06
May
20
06
Sep
20
07
Jan
20
07
May
20
07
Sep
20
08
Jan
20
08
May
20
08
Sep
20
09
Jan
20
09
May
20
09
Sep
20
10
Jan
20
10
May
20
10
Sep
20
11
Jan
20
11
May
20
11
Sep
20
12
Jan
20
12
May
Liabilities of Central Bank: Securities
Claims on Other Depository Corporations
SBV net leanding to commercial banks
5.32% 5.02%
17.0%
8.8%
1.9%
8.2%
22.1%
6.0%
20.9%
10.2%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Tng trng GDP Lm pht (GDP def)
Ngun: Tng cc Thng k
6
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12/26/2013
Thin Anh Tun 4
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%
70.00%
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Cung tin
Tn dng ni a
Ngun: IMF, IFS v NHNN
7
0.00%
20.00%
40.00%
60.00%
80.00%
100.00%
120.00%
140.00%
160.00%
180.00%
200.00%
Trung Quc n Indonesia Malaysia
Philippines Hn Quc Thi Lan Vit Nam
Ngun: EIU
8
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12/26/2013
Thin Anh Tun 5
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12/26/2013
Thin Anh Tun 6
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
D tr ngoi hi
Thng nhp khu
Ngun: IMF, IFS 11
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12/26/2013
Thin Anh Tun 7
-20000
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
E
Xut khu Nhp khu Cn i
Ngun: Tng cc Thng k
13
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
T l u t
T l tit kim
Thm ht thng mi
Ngun: IMF, IFS
14
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12/26/2013
Thin Anh Tun 8
-20000 -15000 -10000 -5000 0 5000 10000 15000 20000
Singapore
Thi Lan
i Loan
Hn Quc
Nht Bn
Trung Quc
Hoa K
EU
2012
2005
2000
Ngun: Tng cc Thng k
15
16
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12/26/2013
Thin Anh Tun 9
17
18,000
18,500
19,000
19,500
20,000
20,500
21,000
21,500
22,000
22,500
23,000
T gi lin NH Floor Ceiling Bid-OFF
Ask-OFF Bid-UNOFF Ask-UNOFF
Ngun: HSC, Reuters
-3,000
-2,000
-1,000
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
20
05
Jan
20
05
May
20
05
Sep
20
06
Jan
20
06
May
20
06
Sep
20
07
Jan
20
07
May
20
07
Sep
20
08
Jan
20
08
May
20
08
Sep
20
09
Jan
20
09
May
20
09
Sep
20
10
Jan
20
10
May
20
10
Sep
20
11
Jan
20
11
May
20
11
Sep
20
12
Jan
20
12
May
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12/26/2013
Thin Anh Tun 10
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
5/4/
2000
1/4/
2001
1/1/
2003
1/6/
2003
1/3/
2004
1/10
/200
4
1/2/
2005
1/7/
2005
1/12
/200
5
1/5/
2006
1/10
/200
6
1/3/
2007
1/8/
2007
1/1/
2008
16/5
/200
8
1/8/
2008
21/1
1/20
08
1/3/
2009
1/7/
2009
1/12
/200
9
1/5/
2010
1/10
/201
0
8/11
/201
0
13/1
1/20
10
18/1
1/20
10
27/1
1/20
10
8/3/
2011
1/8/
2011
1/12
/201
1
15/3
/201
2
20/3
/201
2
25/3
/201
2
5/4/
2012
15/4
/201
2
24/4
/201
2
2/5/
2012
12/5
/201
2
22/5
/201
2
1/6/
2012
6/6/
2012
11/6
/201
2
26/0
3/20
13
Trn LS cho vay p dng cho 4 lnh vc u tin
Li sut cho vay
Trn li sut cho vay (iu 476 BLDS 2005)
Li sut c bn
Li sut ti chit khu Li sut ti cp vn
Li sut tin gi
CHY UA LI SUT
ng thun trn LS tin gi ca VNBA, t 01/10/2010
chnh thc ca NHNN
t 1 t 2 t 3
Ngun: Thin Anh Tun 2013
Ngi gi tin khng c ng lc giao dch vi ngn hng nh yu
Ngn hng yu da hon ton vo th trng lin ngn hng v tch t nhiu khon n ln
Ngn hng mnh hn c nhiu tin mt nhng khng cho ngn hng khng c thanh qun vay
NHNN hin ng gia cc bn ng vai tr kin to th trng
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12/26/2013
Thin Anh Tun 11
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Khu vc nh nc Khu vc dn doanh Khu vc nc ngoi
Ngun: Tng cc Thng k
21
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Nng nghip Cng nghip Dch v
Ngun: Tng cc Thng k
22
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12/26/2013
Thin Anh Tun 12
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Kinh t Nh nc Kinh t dn doanh Kinh t nc ngoi
Ngun: Tng cc Thng k
23
Ch tiu so snh
Khu vc Nh nc KV ngoi Nh nc Khu vc FDI
2000 2005 2012 2000 2005 2012 2000 2005 2012
Vn u t 59,1 47,1 37,8 22,9 38,0 38,9 18,0 14,9 23,3
GDP 38,5 38,4 32,6 48,2 45,6 49,3 13,3 16,0 18,1
Ngn sch (ngoi du th) 65,1 52,0 43,5 15,7 25,4 27,0 19,2 22,6 29,6
Vic lm 59,1 32,7 14,7 29,4 47,8 61,8 11,5 19,6 23,6
GTSX cng nghip 34,2 25,1 18,4 24,6 31,2 38,4 41,3 43,7 43,3
Ghi ch: S liu ca nm 2012 l c tnh. S liu vic lm l ca cc nm 2000, 2005, v 2011. Ngun: FETP, Tnh ton t s liu ca Tng cc Thng k, B Ti chnh, v Qu Tin t Quc t.
24
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12/26/2013
Thin Anh Tun 13
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
0.0
10000.0
20000.0
30000.0
40000.0
50000.0
60000.0
70000.0
80000.0
1988
-199
0
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Vn ng k
Vn thc hin
S d n (RHS)
Ngun: Tng cc Thng k
25
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
26
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12/26/2013
Thin Anh Tun 14
28
6.9
2.9
4.9
9.7
4.0
7.4
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
Nh nc Dn doanh Tng
2000-2005
2006-2010
Ngun: Bi Trinh
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12/26/2013
Thin Anh Tun 15
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012*
Fiscal deficit GDP growth
-10.00
-5.00
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Thm ht ngn sch Thu ngn sch Chi ngn sch
Ngun: IMF, International Financial Statistics
30
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12/26/2013
Thin Anh Tun 16
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
N cng trn u ngi (USD) So vi GDP Tc tng
Ngun: EIU
31
Banks' official data 4.46%
SBV Supervision,
8.60% 7.80%
6%
SBV Supervision,
8,82%
SBV Governor, 3.20%
SBV Governor, 10% Fitch Ratings, 13%
Fitch Ratings, 15.65%
14.49%
17.26%
14.28% 15.61%
Barclays, 20%
VEPRmax, 14.01%
VEPRmin, 8.25%
Our estimate, 17.77%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Ngun: Tng hp v tnh ton ca FETP
32
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12/26/2013
Thin Anh Tun 17
Tng s lng ngn hng thng mi c phn t nm 2000
Ngh nh 141 2006 n nh vn ti thiu 3 ngn t ng, cao hn mc 70 t trc (hn tun th c ni khi a s ngn hng khng th p ng)
Khuyn khch ch ngn hng gp vn vo ngn hng khc v tham gia cho vay lin kt, xem cc khon n ny l vn
DNNN cng tham gia gp vn thng qua cc cng ty ti chnh ca mnh tip cn vn vay cho cng ty con
34
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12/26/2013
Thin Anh Tun 18
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400 20
0007
28
2001
0321
2001
1105
2002
0515
2002
0930
2003
0225
2003
0714
2003
1127
2004
0421
2004
0908
2005
0121
2005
0616
2005
1102
2006
0328
2006
0814
2006
1227
2007
0525
2007
1009
2008
0303
2008
0725
2008
1210
2009
0506
2009
0918
2010
0202
2010
0628
2010
1111
2011
0405
2011
0823
2012
0106
2012
0531
2012
1015
2013
0307
2013
0725
Khi lng (nghn CP)
VN-Index
35
Ngun: HOSE
Cc trc trc c bn ca
Kinh t Vit Nam hin nay
36
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12/26/2013
Thin Anh Tun 19
Tng trng di mc tim nng: cha khai thc ht c cc ngun lc ca nn kinh t trong khi mt s ngun lc khc li b khai thc qu mc, s dng ngun lc lng ph, phn b ngun lc khng hiu qu
Tng trng da qu nhiu vo u t vn: ng gp ca TFP thp, hiu qu u t thp (ICOR cao)
Khu vc kinh t Nh nc: chim gi phn ln ngun lc ca nn kinh t (vn, t ai, ti nguyn) v hng nhiu c quyn kinh t (c ch chnh sch, cc u i) nhng hiu qu thp, li c chn ng vai tr ch o trong nn kinh t
Tim n lm pht cao quay tr li: mc tiu duy tr n nh v m trong c n nh lm pht l cn thit nhng gy tr ngi cho tng trng kinh t v vic thc hin cc mc tiu kinh t - x hi khc
La chn c ch t gi: kh khn do tnh th tin thoi lng nan trong chnh sch t gi, c gng t c ng tha ba mc tiu: t gi c nh, chnh sch tin t c lp, dng vn lu chuyn t do (trilemma)
Li sut cao: doanh nghip kh tip cn vn, tng chi ph vn, lm gim sc cnh tranh ca nn kinh t
37
Tng trng di mc tim nng
Tng trng da vo vn v khai thc ti nguyn
Cn cn ngn sch thm ht: Ngn sch lun thm ht mc cao trn di 5% GDP, k lut ti kha lng lo, rng buc ngn sch mm
Gnh nng n cng ln: N cng ln bt u vt qu 55% GDP, lm gim khng gian ti kha, trc tip gy ra cc tc ng chn ln v trc trc ln nn kinh t.
Cn cn thng mi khng bn vng: Thm ht trong nhiu nm, c ci thin gn y nhng cha hn l tch cc, mt phn l do sc cu ca nn kinh t ang yu, trong khi c cu hng ha xut nhp khu khng thay i.
Tht nghip: T l tht nghip c k vng mc cao do nhiu doanh nghip ph sn trong khi s liu chnh thc li cho thy iu ngc li.
Chnh sch kinh t v m: Chnh sch cn s nht qun vi mc tiu n nh v m nhng vn cha to b cho nn kinh t. Nim tin chnh sch ang b thch thc nghim trng
n ti cu trc kinh t: chm so vi yu cu, c nguy c b tr hon hoc bin dng do nhng chnh sch kinh t ngn hn gy ra
38
Gnh nng n cng qu ln
Mt cn i ngn sch nghim trng
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12/26/2013
Thin Anh Tun 20
Sc cnh tranh ca doanh nghip rt yu, nhiu doanh nghip phi ng ca hoc ph sn
Tip cn vn ca cc doanh nghip gp kh khn khng ch do ro cn vay vn t ngn hng m cn do mi trng v m thiu thun li, c hi kinh doanh khng r rng, khng khuyn khch tinh thn doanh nhn
Gi cc yu t u vo c bn nh xng, du, in, nng lng b l thuc vo th gii v mt s doanh nghip c quyn trong nc.
Ngnh cng nghip to ra gi tr gia tng thp, ch yu tham gia vo khu gia cng trong chui gi tr sn xut ton cu. Cha c mt ngnh cng nghip no ca Vit Nam c th thc s cnh tranh c vi cc nc trong khu vc cng nh trn th gii.
39
Sc cnh tranh ca nn kinh t yu
Nn kinh t gia cng
Ngnh cng nghip ph tr non yu, chnh sch bo h khng hiu qu; chnh sch t gi hin ang bo h cho cc ngnh nhp khu nhng li bp cht cc ngnh sn xut c tnh cht ni sinh ca nn kinh t
Cc lin kt sn xut, chui gi tr v cm ngnh cn manh mn v t pht
Nng nghip chuyn dch chm, nng sut bt u tim cn gii hn, phn phi thu nhp khng cng bng, cc nan trong chnh sch nng nghip vn cha c li gii. Thin tai e da n tnh bn vng v n nh trong sn xut nng nghip.
Cc doanh nghip Nh nc vn dnh nhiu c quyn trong khi cc doanh nghip dn doanh vn phi bi trong m c ch chnh sch hn n
Cc chnh sch h tr cho doanh nghip v th trng vn cha t hiu qu v b dn tri, mt phn do thit k chnh sch h tr, nhng quan trng l b chi phi bi cc nhm c quyn
40
Lin kt sn xut km
Cng nghip ph tr non yu
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12/26/2013
Thin Anh Tun 21
H thng ti chnh da qu nhiu vo ngn hng
TTCK cn non tr li ang b suy gim do tc ng ca bt n kinh t
Cc NH c nng lc qun tr km, cha p ng c cc chun mc an ton theo tiu chun QT
H thng NH cha ng nhiu ri ro nh tn dng, thanh khon, tc nghip, li sut
N xu trong cc NH cao nhng tc x l cha t c hiu qu k vng
Phn b vn cha hp l: tp trung vo s t DNNN, hoc mt s tp on KT t nhn c quan h SH vi NH, mt s ngnh tp trung tn dng qu mc, tn dng dnh cho NNo khng tng xng vi i hi pht trin ca ngnh ny.
Tin trnh ti cu trc cc NHTM din ra qu chm so vi yu cu, cch thc ti cu trc khng chc c th to ra c mt h thng NH khe mnh, c kh nng cnh tranh quc t.
41
Nt tht th ch hin nay c xem l nguyn nhn c bn lm cho tnh trng nn KT b suy yu nh hin nay
Nh b qua c phn ln cc nt tht th ch, khu vc FDI vn c th pht trin tt trong khi cc KV cn li ca nn kinh t khng th tng trng
Ni hm ca th ch KT l quyn SH v vic bo h quyn SH ti sn
Cc tho lun v quyn SH t ai cng nh cc TS ch yu khc (iu 17 Hin php 1992) vn cn ng.
Th ch KT th trng cha c to dng mt cch y do b rng buc bi yu cu phi gi vai tr ch o ca khu vc KT Nh nc.
Chnh v vy, mi trng cnh tranh bnh ng trn thc t kh c m bo, khng khuyn khch tinh thn doanh nhn, mc tiu tm kim li nhun siu ngch nh da vo cc c quyn c li (rent seeking) c t ln trn mc tiu li nhun thun ty ca nn KT th trng.
42
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12/26/2013
Thin Anh Tun 22
Trin vng v thch thc ca Kinh t Vit Nam 2014
43
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
6.00%
7.00%
8.00%
9.00%
10.00%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Thc t
Mc tiu
44
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12/26/2013
Thin Anh Tun 23
Ngn hn: Tip tc gi n nh v m nhng vn phi duy tr tng
trng kinh t Thc hin cc chnh sch an sinh x hi N xu v thanh khon ngn hng Ti tr thm ht ngn sch n nh t gi v th trng vng
Di hn: Ti cu trc li nn kinh t:
u t cng DNNN v tp on kinh t Nh nc H thng ngn hng v th trng ti chnh
Cc vn th ch rng ln hn
45
Tng sn phm trong nc (GDP) tng khong 5,8%.
Kim ngch XK tng khong 10%.
T l nhp siu khong 6% kim ngch XK
Tc tng gi tiu dng (CPI) khong 7%.
Tng vn u t pht trin ton x hi khong 30% GDP.
T l h ngho gim 1,7%-2%, ring cc huyn ngho gim 4%.
To vic lm cho khong 1,6 triu lao ng.
T l tht nghip khu vc thnh th di 4%.
T l lao ng qua o to t 52%.
T l tr em di 5 tui b suy dinh dng gim xung di 15,5%.
S ging bnh trn mt vn dn (khng tnh ging trm y t x) t 22,5 ging.
T l c s gy nhim mi trng nghim trng c x l t 85%.
T l Khu CN, khu CX ang hot ng c h thng x l nc thi tp trung t tiu chun mi trng t 80%.
T l che ph rng t 41,5%.
46
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12/26/2013
Thin Anh Tun 24
Good luck!
47