CLASS 13 Lecture 11July 6th 2015

The International System: Part II

Crisis Stability

Fundamental Concepts of International Politics

Spring 2015

Prof. H. Steven GreenToyo UniversityFaculty of Law

TOP BOARD Uni-polar world: One Superpower & Six Great Powers dominate political relations

MIDDLE BOARDMulti-polar world: Global economy

BOTTOM BOARDPower chaos: Disease, terrorism, international crime

Institutional Threads Part II: IOs for the

Global Economy(Middle Board)

KANTIAN TRIANGLE

Liberals believe 3 things create world peace:

INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM

Democracy

Free tradeInternationalInstitutions

Benefits of Institutions

Liberalism – Institutions and increased information Institutions are a place for leaders to meet and

talk Institutions provide information for all countries Countries create rules* at institutions that make

international relations more predictable …Institutions help create the long shadow of

the future for all countries.

Annual G8 Summit

G8Annual meeting of leaders from 8 of the world’s

wealthiest countries

Make informal agreements on economic and political issues

Markets (市場 ) and Institutions There is not just one market States and non-state actors shape and are shaped

by economics Markets depend upon the rules and

institutions of the space in which they operate. So, political decisions fundamentally affect how

markets operate◦ Property rights 財産権◦ Contract Law　契約法◦ Tariffs and quotas, etc.　関税と割当

European Central Bank (ECB,欧州中央銀行 ) Frankfurt, Germany

Institutions for Trade & Finance

World Trade Organization (WTO)

WTO is multilateral (多国間 ) instead of bilateral (二者間 )◦ Slowly liberalizes ( 自由化する ) trade in small steps

through multilateral negotiation◦ Goal is to liberalize trade but not so quickly that it will

hurt domestic employment◦ Multilateral treaties are more efficient than bilateral

treaties…◦ The WTO is a forum for concluding 1000s of bargains

among dozens of countries◦ Periodic meetings or “rounds” to talk about new issues

areas in trade

Negotiate and enforce trade agreements Same rules of trade for all members

Criticism from the left: perpetuates global inequality (不等を永続させる ), lowers standards, hurts environmental and labor laws, has narrow representation (i.e. only wealthy states have power)

Criticism from libertarians (自由主義者 ) – anti-capitalist, pro-state, wants to restrict countries ability to decide their own trade policies.

Miscellaneous criticism – complex rules, not democratic, not open about how it makes decisions, causes jobs to decrease

HQ in Geneva

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

IMF – The International Monetary Fund Based in Washington, D.C. Supervise exchange rate system 為替相場制 Offer loans during economic crises Loans often have policy conditions

Different voting rules, but important issues require a supermajority 85% required for approval US gets 17% of vote Ensures wide support necessary, But also gives US veto power

IMF

The World Bank

IBRD – International Bank for Reconstruction and

Development …“The World Bank” Lends money to support development of poor

states Composed of several related organization known as

the World Bank “system” Different voting rules, but important issues require

supermajority…similar weight as in IMF (i.e. US has most voting power)

Based in Washington, DC

The World Bank World Bank-funded projects

Money comes from Bank members; Projects are built by private and public companies who compete for the

contracts. The Sardar Sarovar Dam in Inida (left) Huambo Water Supply System, Angola (right) Highways in Iraq

“Institutional threads” & Kantian Triangle

There are many connections between peoples and states and at many levels (leader-leader, office-office, school-school, etc.)

These connections prevent violent conflicts and would be very expensive and take a lot of time to repair if they were broken.

INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM

Review

Liberals say that IOs create international society

IOs create peace because they provide information,

rules and places for leaders to talk and to create shared values

Institutions Peace

2 reasons Why the international system is stable

2. High level of crisis-stability

Crisis-stability: The ability to keep control over events in a

tense, dangerous situation and avoid war.

INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM

Low crisis-stability:

There is a strong incentive for one state to attack another state during an international crisis.

The state’s leaders believe there is a good chance to survive and to win

OR They believe they MUST be the first to attack in

order to survive.

INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM

What low crisis-stability looks like.

INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM

High crisis-stability:

There is a strong incentive for BOTH states to avoid attacking each other.

The states’ leaders believe there is a good chance that even if their attack is

successful their state (and the people in it) would be destroyed.

INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM

What high crisis-stability looks like.

INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM

Why is high crisis-stability good for the international system?

1. War is so destructive that even the winner would be destroyed. So…

2. Countries will look for peaceful solutions to conflicts.

*Read Nye’s example of the locked room full of gasoline: Whoever lights a match will destroy enemy but also himself.

INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM

The Cold War and crisis-stability.

Why was there no war between the US and the USSR?M.A.D.

Mutually Assured Destruction相互確証破壊

INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM

“The enemy of my enemy is my friend.”Common principle in anarchic system. When they do not trust their neighbors, states

make alliances with other states that are far away.

Creates a checkerboard pattern on the world map.

CHECKERBOARD

“The enemy of my enemy is my friend.” JAPAN-GERMANY-ITALY (WW2) US-FRANCE-CHINA-USSR (WW2) US-GERMANY-JAPAN-UK-FRANCE-ITALY (Cold War)

vs CHINA-USSR (until 1960s) VIETNAM-US (since 2013)

CHECKERBOARD

“The enemy of my enemy is my friend.”Common principle in anarchic system. When they do not trust their neighbors, states

make alliances with other states that are far away.

Creates a checkerboard pattern on the world map.

CHECKERBOARD

LEVELS OF ANALYSIS

LEVEL WHAT it tries to explain HOW

Individual

Choices made by leaders.- Bush vs. Gore, Iraq War

Try to analyze psychology and the perceived wins

and losses for the leader.

State Why states behave the way they do.

Study state type (capitalist, communist,

democratic, authoritarian.)

System How the logic of the system creates certain actions.

Analyze the incentives and power balances in the

international system.

IV. Levels of Analysis: The Pacific War (25 points)

Read Nye’s analysis of the origins of the Pacific War from Chapter 2 of the textbook. According to Nye, what are the individual, state (domestic) and systemic level explanations for the decision of Japan to go to war against the US in 1941? (250 words)

Final Test Question IV

Japan before Dec. 7(8), 1941: Summary Parliamentary democracy in Taisho era (1912-26) Colonies in Korea (1910), Taiwan (Formosa) (1895) Militarists took control of government in 1930s Tried to create Greater East Asia Co- Prosperity Sphere Created Manchukuo puppet state in China (1932) – US begins trade sanctions. Took control of French Indochina (Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia). So… US, UK, Dutch East Indies freeze Japanese asssets, impose oil embargo

Case Study: Why Japan chose war in 1941

Individual level

State level(Domestic)

System Level

The world in 1940: Imperial competition, oil

embargo threatens economy…

Final Test Question IV.

Level of Analysis

Explanation

Individual

State

System

SEE YOU NEXT WEEK!

Realists say that the “institutional threads” and “social” can be explained by Hegemonic Stability Theory (HST)

Pax Americana created of institutions for international economic cooperation

Hegemonic power Institutions Peace

If the US lost its power today, international society would become chaotic and dangerous tomorrow because…

Other Great Powers would compete to become the new hegemon

REVIEW