السلاسل الزمنية
DESCRIPTION
مركبات السلسلة الزمنيةالاتجاه العامالموسميةالدوريةالعشوائيةTRANSCRIPT
PAGE
: . .
: .
1:
:
19921993199419951996
11.8712.1212.8213.2913.53
19971998199920002001
14.0714.4814.2214.8414.86
.
spss Graphs Line
: . .
: : .
1. : . .
2. : .
3. : . .
: ( ) :
. .
:
. . . T S ( ) C I . .
1. : ( )
Y= T . S . C . I S , C , I T Y .
.
.
2. : ( )
Y = T+ S + C + I
Y .
.
.
2 :
1407 1420
14071408140914101411141214131414
15581456162818992080195019432012
1415141614171418141914201421
2502166515901601161913801467
.
:
.
. S .
1
( ) 2000 2001 2002
200020012002
250300300
250250200
230250400
400400420
.
:
:
X Y .
.
:
( )
( ..........)
:
1,2,3 .
X
3 :
1407 1416 .
14071408140914101411
98017884609223412410894355
14121413141414151416
122521114732117724145973122991
:
1 - .
2 - .
:
:
1 X .
2 X Y SPSS Y .
3 Analyze Regression Linear .
4 - Save :
:
1 -
2 - T 3
4 :
1420 :
1420
(2 ) 1986 1995
19861987198819891990
7078075313816077927890282
19911992199319941995
10893412460610561687192105187
:
1 - .
2 .
3 1998
:
.
1 :
( )
2 :
( )
.
5 :
1991 2001 .
199119921993199419951996
210250260240300310
19971998199920002001
330380470530560
:
1 .
2 .
3 - .
4 .
5 2003
:
1 :
2 - .
Transform Compute :
:
3 -
:
4 - Compute :
5 2003
655 ( 3 )
1978 2001 .
19781979198019811982198319841985
12.212.913.115.117.422.72528.7
19861987198819891990199119921993
32.53841.744.844.450.551.652
19941995199619971998199920002001
55.363.272.183.697.8118.7134.4142.3
:
1
2 .
3 - .
4 .
5 2003
. ( ) . .
:
98 % 2 % 105 % 5 % .
:
1- .2 X .
3 X
4 =
5 .
6
=
.
6 :
( ) 1999 2000 2001
199920002001
101213
203025
508070
203040
:
.
:
1 - SPSS :
2 T 3 .
3 Compute :
4 :
.
.
.
.
5
:
:
59.023 %
:
% 19.18
:
97.65 %
:
19.455 %
(4 )
( ) 2000 2001 2002
200020012002
250300300
250250200
230250400
400400420
:
.
:
1 - :
Y= T . S . C . I =
2 ( ) :
= 100 :
=
7 :
:
1
2 - 2002 .
:
:
:
40.97780.82197.6580.545
100 .
199920002001
24.429.2831.73
24.7537.1230.93
25.340.535.42
24.8337.2549.66
2002 :
1
:
2 100 2002 .
11348.65619.938
21451.01341.229
31553.37105.486
41655.72744.885
. .
:
. . :
1 - .
2 ( ) .
3 ( ) .
4 ( ) .
5 .
:
. ( ) .
8 :
( ) 1986 - 1995 .
1986198719881989199019911992199319941995
17221826162719312837
:
:
198617------
1987225719
1988186622
1989266020
1990166923
1991276220.67
1992197725.67
1993317826
1994289632
199537------
9 :
= 3 .
: 1- .
2 ( ) :
3 ( )
199911020.37.491.2-----
22022.73.881.093.31.1
35025.0851.991.013.011
42027.442.73.912.9.97
200011229.798.40.983.041.01
23032.155.931.153.31.1
38034.512.321.173.331.11
43036.87.811.012.99.997
200111339.225.33.812.56.85
22541.58.60.742.35.78
37043.941.59.802.61.87
44046.29.861.07-----
4 .
5 - .
2001 1- .78 = .22 .
( 5 )
( 4 ) :
1 - 2004 .
2 = 3 .
20001
2
3
4
20011
2
3
4
20021
2
3
4
1- ( 1999) . . . . .2- . . .
3- ( 1997 ) . . - . : (519.5 ) .4- - (1998 ) . . : (519.50285 ) .
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