הדמיית אקלים בתקופות עבר הדמיית אקלים בתקופות עבר וחיזוי אקלימי של תרחישים וחיזוי אקלימי של תרחישים

עתידייםעתידיים

פינחס אלפרטביה"ס פורטר לסביבה והחוג לגיאופיסיקה,

אוניברסיטת תל אביבבשיתוף עם:

ג'ין פנגג'ון, שמעון קריצ'ק, רנה סמואלס, יצחק כרמונה, מעין הראל

33 main topicsmain topics

Importance of scale (50 vs. 25 km)Importance of scale (50 vs. 25 km)Multiple Climatic simulations (using Multiple Climatic simulations (using

different GHG scenarios, driving GCM’s, different GHG scenarios, driving GCM’s, ensemble members)ensemble members)

Ensemble Outcomes/SimulationsEnsemble Outcomes/Simulations

Regional Climate Modeling

RegCM3 - International Centre for Theoretical Physics, TriesteRegCM3 - International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Trieste Dynamics:Dynamics:

MM5 Hydrostatic (Grell et al 1994)MM5 Hydrostatic (Grell et al 1994)Non-hydrostatic (Bi; in progress)Non-hydrostatic (Bi; in progress)

Radiation:Radiation:CCM3 (Kiehl 1996)CCM3 (Kiehl 1996)

Large-Scale Clouds & Precipitaion:Large-Scale Clouds & Precipitaion:SUBEX (Pal et al 2000)SUBEX (Pal et al 2000)

Cumulus convection:Cumulus convection:Grell (1993) + FC80 ClosureGrell (1993) + FC80 ClosureAnthes-Kuo (1977)Anthes-Kuo (1977)Emanuel (1991)Emanuel (1991)Betts-Miller (1993)Betts-Miller (1993)

Boundary Layer:Boundary Layer:Holtslag (1990)Holtslag (1990)

Tracers/Aerosols/Mineral Dust:Tracers/Aerosols/Mineral Dust:

Qian et al (2001); Solmon et al. 2006Qian et al (2001); Solmon et al. 2006

Zakey et al (2006)Zakey et al (2006) Land Surface:Land Surface:

BATS (Dickinson et al 1991),BATS (Dickinson et al 1991),

SUB-BATS (Giorgi et al 2003)SUB-BATS (Giorgi et al 2003)

CLM (Dai et al 2003, In progress)CLM (Dai et al 2003, In progress)

IBIS (Foley; In progress)IBIS (Foley; In progress) Ocean FluxesOcean Fluxes

Zeng et al (1998)Zeng et al (1998)

BATS (Dickinson et al 1991BATS (Dickinson et al 1991))

Too intense rise in amount of conv. prec[50km/14l)0

T2m[50L/14L] overestimated T2m [50km/14L underestimated – too much clouds

50km/14L minus 25km/18L

Importance of ScaleImportance of Scale

Multiple Model SimulationsMultiple Model Simulations

GCMGCMSRESSRESEnsemble Ensemble MemberMember

RCM Model RCM Model ConfigurationConfiguration

ECHAMECHAMA1B A1B 1111

ECHAMECHAMA1B A1B 3311

ECHAMECHAMB1 B1 1111

ECHAMECHAMB1 B1 1122

HADLEYHADLEYA1BA1B11

Temperature Change [K] in the summer (JJA) between future (2060-2031) to past Temperature Change [K] in the summer (JJA) between future (2060-2031) to past (1961-1990)(1961-1990) ECHAM5 B11 ECHAM5 A1B3

8K

ECHAM5 A1B1 HADLEY A1B

11K4.8K

3.5K

2.5K

6K

EnsemblesEnsembles

MapsMapsTime-series; Time-series; 1960-20601960-2060

ProbabilitiesProbabilities

Summer TemperatureSummer Temperature

Winter PrecipitationWinter Precipitation

Precipitation running means for ±5 years in the winter (DJB) Center Israel RegCM grid point (32N,35E). Every point is an averge of 11years for instance: the value for

2024 is an average for 2019-2029 .

ECHAM5 RegCM 25km : Winter precipitation [mm/season] differences future (2001-2030)- past (1961-1990)

Precipitation Change [mm/season] in the winter (DJF) between future (2060-2031) to past (1961-1990) ECHAM5 B11 ECHAM5 A1B3

ECHAEM5 A1B1HADLEY A1B

Change Future from Past:Change Future from Past:Probability DistributionProbability Distribution

Data SetsData Sets

4 climate models (18-25 km horizontal 4 climate models (18-25 km horizontal resolution)resolution)Japanese Met Office 20kmJapanese Met Office 20kmECHAM-RegCMECHAM-RegCMECHAM-MM5 Run 1ECHAM-MM5 Run 1HADLEY-MM5 Run 1HADLEY-MM5 Run 1

Future Scenario Used: SRES A1B scenarioFuture Scenario Used: SRES A1B scenario

Observed Data is taken from 13 Stations around Observed Data is taken from 13 Stations around the country.the country.

Observed RainfallObserved Rainfall

0 500 1000 1500 20000

1

2x 10

-3 1965-1994

0 500 1000 1500 20000

1

2x 10

-3K

efar

Gila

di

0 500 1000 15000

2

4x 10

-3

0 500 1000 15000

2

4x 10

-3

Tel

Avi

v

0 500 1000 15000

2

4x 10

-3

0 500 1000 15000

2

4x 10

-3

Jeru

sale

m

0 100 200 300 400 5000

0.005

0.01

0 100 200 300 400 5000

0.005

0.01

Bee

r S

hev

a

0 500 1000 1500 20000

1

2x 10

-3 2035-2060

0 500 1000 15000

2

4x 10

-3

2015-2035

0 500 1000 15000

2

4x 10

-3

0 100 200 300 400 5000

0.005

0.01

Change in JSD calculated PDF over time for Change in JSD calculated PDF over time for Average Annual AmountsAverage Annual Amounts

p

mm/yr

shows observed data (red) and calculated past

near future (2015-2035 - dashed) and past calculated

(1965-1990 - solid).

far future (2035-2060 - dashed) and past calculated

(1965-1990 - solid).

0 5 10 15 20 250

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

Kfa

r G

ilad

i

1965-1994

0 5 10 15 20 250

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.22015-2035

0 5 10 15 200

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

Tel

Avi

v

0 5 10 15 200

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0 5 10 150

0.1

0.2

0.3

Jeru

sale

m

0 5 10 150

0.1

0.2

0.3

0 5 10 15 20 250

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.22035-2060

0 5 10 15 200

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0 5 10 150

0.1

0.2

0.3

Change in JSD calculated PDF over time for Change in JSD calculated PDF over time for Number of Wet SpellsNumber of Wet Spells

p

Number of Spells

shows observed data (red) and calculated past

near future (2015-2035 - dashed) and past calculated

(1965-1990 - solid).

far future (2035-2060 - dashed) and past calculated

(1965-1990 - solid).

Conclusions

Tendency to extreme in daily and seasonal rainfall- Desertification?

Tendency to extreme temperaturesJapanese run confirms how crucial are

high-resolution climate runsFirst High Resolution Model Ensemble

over the E. Mediterranean confirms the tendency to extreme along with less total rainfall

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