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2. 1 , () , (Forecasting) (Insight) (Foresight) - , DNA - (: CEO AOL ) - Foresight - 4 - 4 : : (tunnel-vision): (Hubris): (Foresight) - - , , Executive Summary 3. 2 , () 1. , CEO, - PwC CEO , 14 CEO 36% 39% . 18% 44% - CEO 1 (72%), (71%), (71%), (65%), (63%), (60%), (63%) - 2009 50% 21% . , (Foresight) (Insight) (Foresight) - DNA - Picture of Future(PoF) , - , (Insight) (Forecasting) (Foresight) , - Rolling Forecast . , , , , , , ) : 20 . 1,500 ) : , , 30% - Thomas Davenport AOL 1,640 M&A . 10 4. 3 , () - , , New Normal - Agentelle Time Savings , More Efficiency Better Decision Making - () , , . ( , , 2014) 2. Framework 3 - (1) , (2) , (3) - : , Frame Scheme - : 1970 NASA Kepner, Tregoe , , , - : , , - Framework . Bumer Marcus (1) Framing the Issues , (2) Gathering Intelligence , (3) Coming to Conclusions , (4) Learning from Experience 4 - . , 5. 4 , () . 4 , 4 1) - - () Q(192123 ) . (1911) - , , - , ~ - - , , - , , ( )(, ) , () . 6. 5 , () 2) (Selective Perception) - (= ) - , , - , . (). - , . (), . - , ( ) . , () . 3) () tunnel-vision - . - , , - . - 4) (Hubris) (Hubris) - A. , . (: ) 7. 6 , () - ( ) - : - : , ( , ): , . , . ( ) Hubris - () , - - , , 3. () - , - , 8. 7 , () - , - - , , - , , . 9. 8 , () [] , , 2013, , , , , , 2013, , , 2009, Finance Forum, IBM Korea , ?, 2012, IBM, , 2012, IBM Korea Agentielle, Strategic Foresight; From theory to pracitse, method, tools and culture, 2013, White paper Charles Kepner & Benjamin Tregoe, Kepner-Tregoe: A systematic problem solving & decision making method, 2006 David Bumer, Anthony Marcus, Making Decisions in American History, 2014, Strategy by Design PwC Consulting, PwCs 17th Annual Global CEO Survey, 2014