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Definition and Purpose of IEAs- component of ecosystem approaches to management- pressure & state indicators & responses to management- support NOAA’s primary mission requirements

Current and required capabilities to produce IEAs- examples of IEAs- data requirements- spatial scale and resolution- regional, national, and international dimensions

Strategies for progress- NOAA’s roles and current efforts- next steps – PATT, regional teams, EGT, LOs

Integrated Ecosystem Assessments:An Overview

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CHALLENGES to NOAA

• Provide scientific support consistent with NOAA’s missionrequirements for natural resource, and coastal management,

• Support ecosystem approaches to management that considermultiple influences and outcomes,

• Communicate with the public, regulators, legislators, and other agencies and partners the current state of marineecosystems, pressures they face, and the potential impacts ofmanagement options,

• Synthesize knowledge about marine ecosystems in relationto human activities, recognize gaps, and improve understanding.

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What is an Ecosystem Approachto Management (EAM)?

“An ecosystem approach to management is one that provides a comprehensive framework for marine and coastal resource decision making. In contrast to individual species or single issue management, EAM considers a wider range of relevant ecological, environmental, and human factors bearing on societal choices regarding resource use.”……NOAA EGT

“Look at the whole picture, not just the parts.”

Dave GoethelNew England Fishery Management Council

SIMOR Fisheries Constituent Listening Session - October 2006

“Ecosystem approaches to ocean resource managementare not well defined and we donot know how to implement them” UN Law of the Sea Meeting, April 2006

The #1 Myth Concerning EAM:

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Integrated Ecosystem Assessments - Definitions

Integrated Ecosystem Assessment (IEA) : A synthesis of the status of marine ecosystems from multiple

perspectives, including human and physical forcing exerting pressures on the system, and responses of the ecosystem to changes in those factors.

IEAs are developed for a specified geographic region, and incorporate multiple indicators of the status of the physical environment, abundance and production of natural resources, processes and interactions among ecosystem components, and the levels of human factors affecting ecosystem goods and services.

IEAs are an important supporting element of an Ecosystem Approach to Management (EAM), because they provide the basis for understanding the direct and indirect effects of human actions on the production of multiple ecosystem goods and functions in relation to their target and threshold values.

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Dimensions and Process for IEAs

An IEA addresses five dimensions:• Status of the topic being considered• Causes and consequences of the status• Forecast of future status with and without management action• Costs and benefits of possible management actions

• Evaluation of past management actions’ success or failure.

A successful IA:• Responds to policy relevant questions• Quantitatively identifies uncertainties in existing data and information• Includes public participation and peer review• Integrates data across multiple disciplines:• Uses existing high-quality data and information• Forecasts future conditions and outcomes.

ScopingIdentify goals of EBM andthreats to achieving goals

Develop ecosystem indicatorsand targets

Risk Analysis

Characterization of susceptibility to

perturbation

Characterization of resiliency to perturbation

Assessment of ecosystem status relative to EBM goals

Management Actions

Data Acquisition

Monitoring of Ecosystem Indicators

ScopingIdentify goals of EAM andthreats to achieving goals

Develop ecosystem indicatorsand targets

Risk Analysis

Characterization of susceptibility to

perturbation

Characterization of resiliency to perturbation

Assessment of ecosystem status relative to EAM goals

Management Actions

Data Acquisition

Monitoring of Ecosystem Indicators

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Components of an IEA

• An IEA typically consists of the following components:– Assessment of ecosystem baseline conditions– Assessment of stressors on the ecosystem– Prediction of the ecosystem status with no change

in management actions– Prediction of the ecosystem status under different

management strategies– Evaluation of the success of management actions

EcosystemState

PressureFactors Response

Physical Human-Relatedair temperaturesea temperature*weather patternswavessalinity*pHcirculation*sea level*decadal indicesupwellingwind stresssediment transportfreshwater inputsea ice coverextreme events

nutrient inputcontaminantsmicrobiological inputsradioactive inputhydrocarbonsatmos. depositionwetlands changefishing effortvessel trafficbycatch non-native species introductionsdebris (litter)coastal & seabed modificationsmarine sound

Goodsspecies -abundance -biomass -recruitmentfishery catchfishery revenuerecreational useaquaculture productionnon-consumptive usessocial use and Importancetransportationcommerceenergy

Conditionsextent of hypoxiaHAB eventsinvasive species interactionsprimary production*secondary prod.benthic productionspecies richnessdiversityprotected species status & mortalityoverfishing statustrophic balancebody burden contaminantsdistributions of biota

understanding linkages

direct impactsindirect impactsinteraction effects

use correlations &models: single species multispecies habitat spatial climate

Goods Change inPressures

* = current IOOS core variables

Examples of pressure & state indicators, and ecosystem response

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NOAA’s Capabilities:Elements of IEA Inputs in NOAA and other Agencies

http://www.beringclimate.noaa.gov

/data/index.php

NOAA’sIEA indicatorsWeb-Based

PMEL, JISAO, AFSC

Red indicates the largest 1/3 of values in the record. The middle third are shown in grey and the lowest third are shown in green. To demonstrate covariabililty over time, the values in some series have been inverted, as noted by a star.

Alaska Ecosystem Conditions Report - Trends

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Ecosystem models andforecasts to assess responses & understand relationships

PelagicFisheries

Larval & Juvenile Fish

Sea birds

Pelagic Sharks

Baleen whales

Odontocetes

MediumPelagics

DemersalsPiscivoresSquid

Small PelagicsAnadromous

Small PelagicsCommercial

Micronekton

Small Copepods

Discards

Primary Producers

Gelatinous Zooplankton

Large Copepods

Meso-pelagics

ShrimpMegaBenthosFilterers

DemersalFisheries

Large Pelagics

Pinnipeds CoastalSharks

DemersalBenthivores

DemersalsOmnivores

Small PelagicsOther

Polychaetes

MacroBenthosOther

Detritus-POC

Bacteria

MacroBenthosCrustaceans

MegaBenthosOther

MacroBenthosMolluscs

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NATIONAL DIMENSIONS

Consistent reporting of a subset of variables will allow a national overview:

Viz: “An Integrated Assessment of the Status of theCoastal and Ocean Ecosystems of the United States”

Mid-At

lantic

Bigh

t

Slope Water

Georges Bank

Gulf of Maine

ScotianShelf

LME Sub-Region Local areaData systems should allow

hierarchical assessment

REGIONAL DIMENSIONS:Determining the appropriate spatial scale for IEAs

issues & challenges differ by sub-region

IEA Concept being explored Internationally (UK, Canada, Australia…)

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NOAA‘s ROLES:Acting in concert with constituents & partners, IEAs are a regional activity

• identify appropriate spatial dimensions for which IEAs are to be produced• determine key ecosystem issues by IEA region• assess the availability of data informing indicators• collaborate with other USG agencies, states, academia and stakeholders to incorporate all relevant ecosystem information and to prioritize the development of indicators• [determine targets and thresholds for management-related indicators, consistent with legislative authorities]• Evaluate the relationships between pressure and status indicators using appropriate research, models and forecasts• Provide routine reporting and updates on the status of the nation’s coastal and ocean ecosystems

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STRATEGIES:

• working across LOs, identify appropriate regional collaborations to oversee the compilation of IEAs• engage regional partners and stakeholders in the identification of important issues and assembly of data• develop consistent data standards and procedures among and within IEA regions to allow comparability and synthesis• propose, develop and test suites of pressure and state indicators (some common to all regions, some unique to each)• determine research priorities for understanding ecosystem responses to changes in physical and human pressures• develop periodic reporting mechanisms for IEAs

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NEXT STEPS:Creating a vision and path to IEAs

• develop IEA white paper on process, content, strategies, clients, inventory, and annotated bibliography [PATT on IEAs]

• determine appropriate entities to oversee IEA production, consistent with regional priorities [NOAA leadership, teams]

• support pilot IEA activities in several regions to emphasize data management and communication procedures, development of appropriate indicators, and modeling and forecasting for understanding ecosystem response [EGT 09-13 program, LOs]

• continue and enhance ongoing IEA-related activities [LOs, Cooperative Institutes, international collaborations e.g., w/Canada]

Next Step: Integrating Ecosystem Data, Assessments, Models & Forecasts FY-09-13 Program Plan for EGT

NOAA’s Current Ecosystem Data Streams

Each with individual data archives

Serving specificManagement needs

EGT’s Vision:

Integratedregional dataprioritization,collection & archival

Enabling:Regional IntegratedEcosystemassessments

Supporting: enhancedModeling & forecasting

Regional Data Mgmt

$2M

NE Trophic Modeling $2M

Program Plan Investment: $8M in FY09

CA Current IEA Pilot $4M

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Backup Slides

Integrated Ecosystem AssessmentPriority Area Task Team

Steve Murawski (EGT, NMFS)Gary Matlock (NOS)Mike Fogarty (NMFS)Peter Ortner (OAR)Frank Schwing (NMFS)Phyllis Stabeno (OAR)Phil Levin (NMFS)Ellen Mecray (OAR)

Roger Griffis (NOS)Mike Ford (PPI)Scott Mowery (NESDIS)Steve Rutz (NESDIS)Polly Endreny (EGT)Emily Menashes (EGT)Maggie Ernst (EGT)

Definition and Characteristics of EAMDefinition and Characteristics of EAMAn ecosystem is a geographically specified system of organisms (including humans), the environment, and the processes that control its dynamics.

Characteristics of EAM:

- adaptive,

- collaborative,

- incremental,

- takes account of ecosystem knowledge and uncertainties,

- considers multiple external influences,

- strives to balance diverse social objectives, and

- geographically specified.

Easy to Understand

Responsive to Manageable Human Activities

Responses Linked in Time to Management Action

Easily and Accurately Measured

Low Responsiveness to Other Factors (e.g., multiple factors)

Measurable Over Large Portion of Area

Existing Data to Provide Historic Dynamics to inform the selection of targets and thresholds

Some Desirable Characteristics of Ecosystem Indicatorsto Describe Ecosystem Pressures and States

Source: ICES Working Group on Ecosystem Effects of Fishing

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IOOS Core Variables

TemperatureSalinityBathymetrySea LevelSurface wavesSurface currentsIce distributionContaminantsDissolved nutrientsFish speciesFish abundanceZooplankton speciesOptical propertiesHeat fluxOcean colorBottom characterPathogensDissolved O2Phytoplankton speciesZooplankton abundance

Problem NeedCompromised ocean, coastal, and Great Lakes ecological integrity, which diminishes our ability to fully realize their potential, costing us jobs and revenue, threatening human health, and putting our future at risk.

Updated management approaches that reflect the complexity in the oceans, coasts, and Great Lakes.

Improved access to data, and scientific information, results, and products for managers, decision makers, and the public.

The state and variability of the global climate system is not well known.

Characterize the state of the global climate system and its variability.

Coastal Populations at risk, including coastal hazards and coastal development and urbanization

Improved models, examples of which include coastal inundation, hurricane intensity, and harmful algal bloom forecasts.

Coastal Ecosystems at risk, including the hydrological and biogeochemical cycles, and ecosystem health and productivity.

Improved ecosystem assessments and models.

Core Variables

Decision support

products and services

Long-term time data

series, coordinated in

space and time

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Northeast Shelf Ecosystem Indicators

65 70 75 80 85 90 95

NAO

GoM TempGB Temp

SNE TempMA Temp

GroundfishLand Elasmobranch Land

Trawl IncomeNo Vessels

Total BiomassMean Wt

Groundfish BiomassOther Biomass

Elasmobranch BiomassPelagic Biomass

Sp. RichnessSp. Evenness

PhysicalMetrics

HumanMetrics

Biotic Metrics

FINAL REPORTExternal Ecosystem Task Team Report to NOAA Science Advisory Board

Evolving an Ecosystem Approach to Science and Management Throughout NOAA and its

Partners

NOAA SAB MEETING

MONTEREY, JULY 25-26, 2006

[the following two slides emphasize IEAsas a recommended NOAA task]

http://www.sab.noaa.gov/Reports/eETT_Final_1006.pdf

INTEGRATED ECOSYSTEM ASSESSMENTS AS THE WAY

FORWARD

Regionally based Integrated Ecosystem Assessments (IEAs), conveying information on the status of ecosystem health and evaluating the impacts of current and proposed human activities should be the central products of NOAA ecosystem science.

Common focus for NOAA’s ecosystem science enterprise

RECOMMENDATION 4: NOAA’s Ecosystem Goal Team should lead and participate in the development of Integrated Ecosystem Assessments (IEAs) for all ecosystems in which NOAA has a statutory or trust responsibility.

The IEAs are of great significance as:• the integrating product of NOAA’s (and

partners’) ecosystem science efforts, • the common core product for clients of

NOAA’s ecosystem science