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10302 EPM5044 849U0150 2/ / / 213

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Thiscourseisintendedforundergraduateandgraduatestudentswhohavethedesiretounderstandthebasicconceptsofmathematicalmodelinganditsapplicationstotheepidemiological

1

user 1

studyofinfectiousdiseases.Thecoursewillprovidestudentstodiscoverhowmathematicalconceptshelpusunderstandthespreadofinfectiouspathogensthroughdynamicpopulations.Studentswillexploreexistingmathematicalmodelsinpracticalcomputerlabsessions,andalsolearnhowtodeterminethekeyparametersinvolvedinthespreadofpathogens,theimpactofchangesintheseparameters,anddiscussthepublichealthpolicyimplications.Throughdiscussionsofpublishedpapers,studentswilllearnhowtocriticallyevaluateamodelingpaper,andhowtocommunicatethemodelingresultswithpolicymakers.

Thecoursehastwomajorobjectives:(1)introducebasicprinciplesofmathematicalmodelingmethodsand(2)emphasizethesignificanceofsimulationandmodelingtothestudyofinfectiousdiseaseepidemiology.

Weeklyreadings,writtenassignmentsandparticipationinclassdiscussionandcomputerlab.Thereisatakehomemidtermexamforevaluatingstudentstheabilityofimplementingadiseasetransmissionmodel.Studentsalsoneedtocompletetermprojectaddressingmathematicalorcomputermodelinginoneofinfectiousdiseasesoftheirchoice.

1.Keeling,M.J.andRohani,P.(2008)ModelingInfectiousDiseasesinHumansandAnimals.PrincetonUniversityPress.2.Vynnycky,E.andWhite,R.G.(2010)AnIntroductiontoInfectiousDiseaseModelling.OxfordUniversityPress.3.Anderson,R.M.andMay,R.M.(1992)InfectiousDiseasesofHumans:DynamicsandControl,OxfordUniversityPress4.Hannon,BandRuth,M(2009),DynamicModelingofDiseasesandPests,Springer

1 02/25IntroductiontoModelinginInfectiousDiseases

Epidemiology/

2 03/04 SIRModelandR0/

3 03/11 SimulatingSIREpidemics/

4 03/18 LatentPeriodandCarrierState/

2

5 03/25 SEIRModel/

6 04/01

7 04/08Modelingdiseasewithcomplexnaturalhistory:

tuberculosisasanexample

8 04/15ParameterEstimationandSensitivityAnalyses

9 04/22ModelingRealisticEpidemicInfectionrelatedMortality,

ImmunityWaning,andRiskStructure(1)/

10 04/29ModelingRealisticEpidemicInfectionrelatedMortality,

ImmunityWaning,andRiskStructure(2)/

11 05/06 *TakeHomeMidtermexam*

12 05/13 MidtermExamDiscussion/

13 05/20 AgeStructure/

14 05/27ControllingInfectiousDiseases:VaccinationandIsolation

/

15 06/03 StochasticDynamics/

16 06/10SpecialLectureSpatiotemporalmodelingofinfectious

diseases( )

17 06/17 Journalreadingandpresentation1/

18 06/24 Journalreadingandpresentation2/

1.

2.

journalreading3.

3

4.

NO. 1 Homework 40% 2 MidTermExam 30% 3 Termpresentation 30%

982 :4.96(982),4.47(992),4.73(1002),4.72(1012),4.68(1022)

4

1

4

()

1041

EPM5046 849U0170 01 3/ / 234 212

(MD,PhD) SCI SSCI

(PhDinStatistics) SCI 10 JohnWileyMarcelDekkerCRC/Chapman&Hall 2012 (FellowoftheAmericanStatisticalAssociation)

( 50 )

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2

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(5) 96 1

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(3) (In-depth Homework) (4) 3-5

(Projects)

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Discussion)(Peer Review)

6

3

HotellingT2 SAS SPSS

Exampleofmultivariatedata,reviewofmatrixalgebra,testofmeans,multivariateanalysisofvariance,principalmultidimensionalscaling,principalcomponentanalysis,exploratoryandconfirmatoryfactoranalyses,clusteranalysis,discriminatanalysis,canonicalanalysis SAS SPSS

30%(takehome) 30% 40%

SAS SPSS (www.statedu.ntu.edu.tw) SAS SPSS

Manly,B.F.J.(2005)MultivariateStatisticalMethods:Aprimer,3rdEd. Chapman&Hall,NewYork. Morrison,D.F.(2005)MultivariateStatisticalMethods,4thEd,Duxbury Press,Belmont,CA Sharma,S.(1996)AppliedMultivariateTechniques,JohnWiley,NewYork Izenman,A.J.(2008)ModernMultivariateStatisticalTechniques,Springer, M.L.Shen(1998)AppliedMulitvariateAnalysis, ,

1 9/16/2015 IntroductionandExamplesofMultivariatedata:

2 9/23/2015 ReviewofMatrixAlgebra;SummarizationofMultivariateData:

3 9/30/2015 TestsofMeansI:HotellingT2OneSamplePairedSamples:

4 10/7/2015 TestsofMeansII:HotellingT2TwoIndependentSamplesProfileAnalysis:

7

4

5 10/14/2015 TestsofMeansIII:MultivariateAnalysisofVariance(MANOVA)LinearContrastsProfileAnalysis:

6 10/21/2015 MeasuringandTestingMultivariateDistance;ReductionofDimensionsI:MulidimensionalScaling:

7 10/28/2015 ReductionofDimensionsII:PrincipalComponentAnalysis(PCA):

8 11/4/2015 MidtermStudentsPresentation:Students

9 11/11/2015 CovarianceStructureI:ExploratoryFactorAnalysis(EFA):

10 11/18/2015 CovarianceStructureII:ExploratoryFactorAnalysis(EFA)ConfirmatoryFactorAnalysis(CFA):

11 11/25/2015 CovarianceStructureIII:ConfirmatoryFactorAnalysis(CFA)IntroductiontoStructuralEquations:

12 12/2/2015 ClassificationI:ClusterAnalysis: 13 12/9/2015 ClassificationII:DiscriminantAnalysis:

14 12/16/2015 CorrelationsbetweenTwoSetsofVariablesII:Canonical

Analysis: 15 12/23/2015 CorrelationsbetweenTwoSetsofVariablesI:Ordination

andCorrespondenceAnalysis: 16 12/30/2015 ApplicationsofMultivariateQuantitativeMethodsto

PublicHealthandPreventiveMedicine: ApplicationsofMultivariateQuantitativeMethodstoBiology,AgricultureandBiomedicalResearch:

17 12/6/2016 FinalStudentsPresentation:Students

18 12/13/2016 FinalStudentsPresentation:Students

(1) 96 1

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4.30 100 3.80 85.67 3.30 79.00 2.80 73.33 2.30 69.00 1.80 62.004.29 99.63 3.79 85.50 3.29 78.90 2.79 73.20 2.29 68.90 1.79 61.804.28 99.27 3.78 85.33 3.28 78.80 2.78 73.07 2.28 68.80 1.78 61.604.27 98.90 3.77 85.17 3.27 78.70 2.77 72.93 2.27 68.70 1.77 61.404.26 98.53 3.76 85.00 3.26 78.60 2.76 72.80 2.26 68.60 1.76 61.204.25 98.17 3.75 84.83 3.25 78.50 2.75 72.67 2.25 68.50 1.75 61.004.24 97.80 3.74 84.67 3.24 78.40 2.74 72.53 2.24 68.40 1.74 60.804.23 97.43 3.73 84.50 3.23 78.30 2.73 72.40 2.23 68.30 1.73 60.604.22 97.07 3.72 84.33 3.22 78.20 2.72 72.27 2.22 68.20 1.72 60.404.21 96.70 3.71 84.17 3.21 78.10 2.71 72.13 2.21 68.10 1.71 60.204.20 96.33 3.70 84.00 3.20 78.00 2.70 72.00 2.20 68.00 1.70 60.004.19 95.97 3.69 83.88 3.19 77.90 2.69 71.93 2.19 67.90 4.18 95.60 3.68 83.75 3.18 77.80 2.68 71.85 2.18 67.80 4.17 95.23 3.67 83.63 3.17 77.70 2.67 71.78 2.17 67.70 4.16 94.87 3.66 83.50 3.16 77.60 2.66 71.70 2.16 67.60 4.15 94.50 3.65 83.38 3.15 77.50 2.65 71.63 2.15 67.50 4.14 94.13 3.64 83.25 3.14 77.40 2.64 71.55 2.14 67.40 4.13 93.77 3.63 83.13 3.13 77.30 2.63 71.48 2.13 67.30 4.12 93.40 3.62 83.00 3.12 77.20 2.62 71.40 2.12 67.20 4.11 93.03 3.61 82.88 3.11 77.10 2.61 71.33 2.11 67.10 4.10 92.67 3.60 82.75 3.10 77.00 2.60 71.25 2.10 67.00 4.09 92.30 3.59 82.63 3.09 76.90 2.59 71.18 2.09 66.90 4.08 91.93 3.58 82.50 3.08 76.80 2.58 71.10 2.08 66.80 4.07 91.57 3.57 82.38 3.07 76.70 2.57 71.03 2.07 66.70 4.06 91.20 3.56 82.25 3.06 76.60 2.56 70.95 2.06 66.60 4.05 90.83 3.55 82.13 3.05 76.50 2.55 70.88 2.05 66.50 4.04 90.47 3.54 82.00 3.04 76.40 2.54 70.80 2.04 66.40 4.03 90.10 3.53 81.88 3.03 76.30 2.53 70.73 2.03 66.30 4.02 89.73 3.52 81.75 3.02 76.20 2.52 70.65 2.02 66.20 4.01 89.37 3.51 81.63 3.01 76.10 2.51 70.58 2.01 66.10 4.00 89.00 3.50 81.50 3.00 76.00 2.50 70.50 2.00 66.00 3.99 88.83 3.49 81.38 2.99 75.87 2.49 70.43 1.99 65.80 3.98 88.67 3.48 81.25 2.98 75.73 2.48 70.35 1.98 65.60 3.97 88.50 3.47 81.13 2.97 75.60 2.47 70.28 1.97 65.40 3.96 88.33 3.46 81.00 2.96 75.47 2.46 70.20 1.96 65.20 3.95 88.17 3.45 80.88 2.95 75.33 2.45 70.13 1.95 65.00 3.94 88.00 3.44 80.75 2.94 75.20 2.44 70.05 1.94 64.80 3.93 87.83 3.43 80.63 2.93 75.07 2.43 69.98 1.93 64.60 3.92 87.67 3.42 80.50 2.92 74.93 2.42 69.90 1.92 64.40 3.91 87.50 3.41 80.38 2.91 74.80 2.41 69.83 1.91 64.20 3.90 87.33 3.40 80.25 2.90 74.67 2.40 69.75 1.90 64.00 3.89 87.17 3.39 80.13 2.89 74.53 2.39 69.68 1.89 63.80 3.88 87.00 3.38 80.00 2.88 74.40 2.38 69.60 1.88 63.60 3.87 86.83 3.37 79.88 2.87 74.27 2.37 69.53 1.87 63.40 3.86 86.67 3.36 79.75 2.86 74.13 2.36 69.45 1.86 63.20 3.85 86.50 3.35 79.63 2.85 74.00 2.35 69.38 1.85 63.00 3.84 86.33 3.34 79.50 2.84 73.87 2.34 69.30 1.84 62.80 3.83 86.17 3.33 79.38 2.83 73.73 2.33 69.23 1.83 62.60 3.82 86.00 3.32 79.25 2.82 73.60 2.32 69.15 1.82 62.40 3.81 85.83 3.31 79.13 2.81 73.47 2.31 69.08 1.81 62.20

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