a capacity planning model for microgrids in rural...

A Capacity Planning Model for

Microgrids in Rural India

Arkasama Bandyopadhyay*, Katrina Ramirez-Meyers,

Enakshi D. Wikramanayake, Benjamin D. Leibowicz,

Michael E. Webber, Vaibhav Bahadur

41st IAEE International Conference, Groningen, Netherlands

June 12, 2018

*Presenting author

Arkasama Bandyopadhyay| A Capacity Planning Model of Microgrids in Rural India 2June 12, 2018

Outline

• Background

• Goals

• Methods

• Results and Discussion

• Future Work

• Conclusion


Outline

• Background

• Goals

• Methods


• Future Work

• Conclusion


One-third of the world’s population has no access

or intermittent access to electricity© World Bank,

2016

Access to electricity (% of population)


Nearly 240 million people in India (mostly in rural

areas) do not have access to modern energy

resources


Microgrids are a potential solution to rural

electrification challenges• Benefits:

– Reduce distance between load and electricity

– Faster construction

– Costs of microgrid components continue to decrease

• Disadvantages:– Intermittency and variability of renewable

generation

– Susceptible to consumption variations and localized weather events

– Underinvestment©Selco Foundation, 2015


Outline

• Background

• Goals

• Methods


• Future Work

• Conclusion


This study creates a tool for capacity planning

and cost minimization

• Encourages community involvement in planning

• Easily modified monthly bottom-up demand profiles

• Tool developed is not software-specific

• Can be used by private or government investors

• Can be applied to any region with low electrification levels


Outline

• Background

• Goals

• Methods


• Future Work

• Conclusion


There is a lack of energy consumption data in

less industrialized nations

• Bottom-up construction of

load profiles

– Residential

– Agricultural

– Health and Safety

– Education

– Social and Commercial

Base June Profile Divided by Sector

0 5 10 15 20 25

Hours

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Lo

ad

in

KW

Residential

Agriculture

Health & Safety

Education

Social and Commercial

©Bandyopadhyay et al, 2018Base June Profile Divided by Sector

0 5 10 15 20 25

Hours

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Lo

ad

in

KW

Residential

Agriculture

Health & Safety

Education

Social and Commercial


Load profiles are created by using demand data

from available literature and making reasonable

assumptions

• Residential demand

profile

– Compact fluorescent light

(CFL) bulbs

– Ceiling fans

– Table fans

– Small kitchen appliances

– Cellphones

Only Residential Profile

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Hours

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Lo

ad

(kW

)

©Bandyopadhyay et al, 2018


• Agricultural demand

profile

– Water pump

– Irrigation pump

– Medium-sized rice mill

There has been a significant increase in the rate

mechanization of agriculture in rural India over

the past decade Only Agriculture Profile


Hours

0

10

20

30

40

Lo

ad

(kW

)



Malnutrition and lack of knowledge about health

problems, vaccinations, and contraception are

significant problems in several developing countries

• Health and Safety

demand profile

– Primary Healthcare

Center

CFL bulbs

Ceiling fans

Small refrigerators

Computers

– Street lights

Only Health and Safety Profile


Hours

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Lo

ad

(kW

)



The model village is assumed to have two schools

• Education demand

profile

– CFL bulbs

– Ceiling fans

– Refrigerators

– Computers

– Printers

Only Education Profile


Hours

0

10

20

30

40

50

Lo

ad

(kW

)



The social and commercial sector includes a

community center and several convenience stores

• Social and Commercial Demand Profile

– Community center

CFL bulbs

Ceiling fans

Televisions

Computers

Air-conditioner

– Convenience stores

CFL bulbs

Ceiling fans

Only Social and Commercial Profile


Hours

0

5

10

15

Lo

ad

(kW

)



Small electric kitchen appliances are the

principal drivers of peak load

Base June Profile Divided by Device

0 5 10 15 20 25

Hours

0

50

100

150

200

250

300Lo

ad

in K

WLights

Fans

Phones

Electric Appliance

Irrigation Pump

Water pump

Rice mill

Fridge

AC

Television

Computer

Printer



Four types of energy resources are chosen to

electrify the notional village

• Solar PV

• Wind turbines

• Mini-hydro electricity

generators

• Diesel engines ©OMC, 2012

© ENCO, 2018

©Indiamart, 2018©REVVE, 2018


The objective of the linear program is to minimize

the sum of total installation and dispatch costs

𝑗=1

𝐽

𝐶𝐶𝑗 + 𝑂𝑀𝑗 × 𝑥𝑗 +8760

𝑇×

𝑡=1

𝑇

𝑗=1

𝐽

𝑉𝐶𝑗,𝑡 + 𝑇𝐴𝑋𝑗 × 𝑦𝑗,𝑡 + 𝐵𝐶. 𝐶𝐴𝑃

𝑇 = number of dispatch intervals modeled in the year𝐽 = number of generator types

𝐶𝐶𝑗 = ammortized capital cost of generator type j

𝑂𝑀𝑗 = ammortized operations and maintenance cost of generator type j

𝑥𝑗 = generator capacity of fuel j installed

𝑉𝐶𝑗,𝑡 = variable cost of generator type j

𝑇𝐴𝑋𝑗 = CO2 tax of generator type j𝑦𝑗,𝑡 = generator dispatch of fuel j

𝐵𝐶 = ammortized capital and O&M costof battery

𝐶𝐴𝑃 = battery capacity installed


The linear program is subject to the following

constraints:• Demand

– Exogenous

– Endogenous

• Irrigation

– Schedule

– Upper Bound

• Fuel Availability

• BatteryAvailability factors of monthly representative days


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

wind solar mini-hydro diesel



Outline

• Background

• Goals

• Methods


• Future Work

• Conclusion


Energy dispatched shows monthly variations January

0 10 20

Hours

0

100

200

300D

isp

atc

h (

kW

) February

0 10 20

Hours

0

100

200

300

Dis

patc

h (

kW

) March

0 10 20

Hours

0

100

200

300

Dis

patc

h (

kW

) April

0 10 20

Hours

0

100

200

300

Dis

patc

h (

kW

)

May

0 10 20

Hours

0

100

200

300

Dis

pa

tch

(kW

) June

0 10 20

Hours

0

100

200

300

Dis

pa

tch

(kW

) July

0 10 20

Hours

0

100

200

300

Dis

pa

tch

(kW

) August

0 10 20

Hours

0

100

200

300

Dis

pa

tch

(kW

)

September

0 10 20

Hours

0

100

200

300

Dis

pa

tch (

kW

) October

0 10 20

Hours

0

100

200

300

Dis

pa

tch (

kW

) November

0 10 20

Hours

0

100

200

300

Dis

pa

tch (

kW

) December

0 10 20

Hours

0

100

200

300

Dis

pa

tch (

kW

)



During the rainy season or monsoon in India,

there is no need to dispatch diesel while during

the winter, a lot of diesel capacity is dispatched

January

0 10 20

Hours

0

100

200

300

Dis

patc

h (

kW

) February

0 10 20

Hours

0

100

200

300

Dis

patc

h (

kW

) March

0 10 20

Hours

0

100

200

300

Dis

patc

h (

kW

) April

0 10 20

Hours

0

100

200

300

Dis

patc

h (

kW

)

May

0 10 20

Hours

0

100

200

300

Dis

pa

tch

(kW

) June

0 10 20

Hours

0

100

200

300

Dis

pa

tch

(kW

) July

0 10 20

Hours

0

100

200

300

Dis

pa

tch

(kW

) August

0 10 20

Hours

0

100

200

300

Dis

pa

tch

(kW

)

September

0 10 20

Hours

0

100

200

300

Dis

pa

tch (

kW

) October

0 10 20

Hours

0

100

200

300

Dis

pa

tch (

kW

) November

0 10 20

Hours

0

100

200

300

Dis

pa

tch (

kW

) December

0 10 20

Hours

0

100

200

300

Dis

pa

tch (

kW

)

January

0 10 20

Hours

0

100

200

300

Dis

patc

h (

kW

) February

0 10 20

Hours

0

100

200

300

Dis

patc

h (

kW

) March

0 10 20

Hours

0

100

200

300

Dis

patc

h (

kW

) April

0 10 20

Hours

0

100

200

300

Dis

patc

h (

kW

)

May

0 10 20

Hours

0

100

200

300

Dis

pa

tch (

kW

) June

0 10 20

Hours

0

100

200

300

Dis

pa

tch (

kW

) July

0 10 20

Hours

0

100

200

300

Dis

pa

tch (

kW

) August

0 10 20

Hours

0

100

200

300

Dis

pa

tch (

kW

)

September

0 10 20

Hours

0

100

200

300

Dis

pa

tch (

kW

) October

0 10 20

Hours

0

100

200

300

Dis

pa

tch (

kW

) November

0 10 20

Hours

0

100

200

300

Dis

pa

tch (

kW

) December

0 10 20

Hours

0

100

200

300

Dis

pa

tch (

kW

)


The cost of electrification per kWh is highest for

the social and commercial sector and lowest

for the health and safety sector

0

20

40

60

80

100

% o

f R

ene

wa

ble

s In

sta

lled

Base Res Ag H/S Ed S/C0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

Co

st

pe

r kW

h (

US

D)

0

50

100©Bandyopadhyay et al, 2018


Wind generator capacity is only installed for

electrification of the base case and the

residential sectorCapacity Composition per Sector

Base Res Ag H/S Ed S/C0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1Wind

Solar

Mini-hydro

Diesel

Battery



As CO2 tax is increased, the total capacity

installed also increases

0 50 100 150

CO2 Tax (USD/metric ton)

0

200

400

600

800C

ap

acity I

nsta

lled (

kW

)Wind

Solar

Mini-hydro

Diesel

Battery



Two complimentary trends are observed with

increase in CO2 tax

0 50 100 150

CO2 Tax (USD/metric ton)

0

50

100

150

200

Die

sel C

ap

acity (

kW

)

0

20

40

60

80

100

% R

ene

wa

ble

s In

sta

lled



Outline

• Background

• Goals

• Methods


• Future Work

• Conclusion


Several avenues for further research exist

• Cost comparison with extending grid to village

• Modification of load profile to include other sectors (e.g.

water treatment facilities, banks, post office)

• Modelling endogenous demand over a period of several

years to include effects of socioeconomic development

• Advanced generation systems (e.g. sun-tracking PV panels)


Outline

• Background

• Goals

• Methods


• Future Work

• Conclusion


This project creates an optimization tool for capacity

planning and dispatch in rural areas of developing

countries

• With a CO2 tax of $50/ton (base case),

– Optimal installation mix – wind, mini-hydro, diesel, battery storage

– 74% of capacity installed is renewable

– Cost of electrification : $0.05/kWh

• As CO2 tax is increased,

– Diesel generator capacity installed decreases

– Renewable capacity installed increases

• Diesel generator capacity installed is not eliminated even with a high CO2 tax of $150/ton.

www.webberenergygroup.com

Arkasama BandyopadhyayGraduate Research Assistant,

Department of Mechanical Engineering,

The University of Texas at Austin,

USA

[email protected]


Backup Slides


Costs for the generator types are recorded from

available data specific to India

Units Solar Wind Mini-hydro Diesel Battery

Capital Cost $/kW 1130 1300 1100 280 144

Generator Lifetime years 20 20 25 6 3

Ammortized Capital

Cost

$/kW-

year60.74 69.88 48.12 47.82 48.70

Ammortized O&M

Cost

$/kW-

year1.21 1.40 1.93 1.91 7.20

Variable (Fuel) Cost $/kWh 0 0 0 0.09 0



The total annual energy consumption modeled in

the base case is 990 MWhBase Case

0 50 100 150 200 250

No of days

0

50

100

150

200

250

300Lo

ad

(kW

)©Bandyopadhyay et al, 2018


The irrigation load is considered to be exogenousBase Case Irrigation

0

20

40

Lo

ad in

KW

Irrigation for Agriculture Only

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec0

20

40

Lo

ad

in

KW


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