introductory primer: complexity air war soss€¢ we must also harden some systems against...
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Introductory Primer: Complexity Air War SoSs
Challenge 1 - Growing System SynthesisChallenge 2 – Higher-Order Human Functions
Challenge 3 – Cyber Threat Complexity response to Information DominanceChallenge 4 - Requirements Stasis
COMPLEXITY, INTERCONNECTEDNESS, AND VULNERABILITY
PHI Φ effects in the domains of warPhysical Domains: The traditional domains of warfare “where strike, protect and maneuver take place across the environments of land [and sub‐surface], air, space and sea [and sub‐surface]. The easiest to measure the lethality and survivability/ effectiveness.”Human Domain: The human domain of warfare:
Cognitive with the “mind of the warfighter and the supporting populous. Where battles and wars are won and lost. This is where the tactics, techniques and procedures (TTPS) reside.” Social: those “sets of interactions between and among force entities. The most changeable from operation to operation, mission to mission.”
Information Domain: The new domain where “information is created, manipulated, and shared and where the C2 will occur. The force has the capability to collaborate. Most sensitive of the domains to protect and defend.”
24/04/2018 2
Strategic context out to 2035: Future Operating Environments …
AUS White Paper / FPR / VCDF FOE 2035, Nov 16 R27345013 UK FOE 2035, Nov 2014 / UK Joint Concept Note 1/17 July 2017
US JOE 2035, Jul 2016 / National Strategy Dec 2017
Common Pervasive National Themes:• … future strategic context and operating environment are characterised by complexity,
instability, uncertainty and pervasive information.• The distinction between war and peace has blurred and state and non-state adversaries, threaten the stability of the rules-based international order that underpins long-term security.
• Significant changes are likely to come from the rapid development of information technologies, new sensors and novel weapons, artificial intelligence, biological and material
sciences and a rapid growth of remote and automated systems.• We must also harden some systems against electronic warfare or cyber attack and seek to
minimise or eliminate single points of failure. • Reversionary modes of operation, including passive sensors and minimising vulnerabilities
would increase resilience; an important component of adaptability.
• Technology / Tempo / Autonomy and human interaction / Electromagnetic Environment
• A culture that promotes collaboration, common understanding, a willingness to experiment, to take measured risk and accept setbacks, and to learn and adapt will reap dividends.
1943
1500 B-17 sorties9000 250lbs LDGP
3300 ft CEPOne 60’ x 100’ target
W.W.II
1971
30 F-4 sorties 176 500lbs HDGP
400 ft CEP
One TargetVietnam
2011
1 B-2 sortie16 2000lbs GPS
<5 ft CEP16 Targets per Pass
All Weather
1991
1 F-111/F-117 sortie
4/2 2000lbs LGBs10 ft CEP
4/2Targets per SortieDesert Storm
‘Revolutionary’ TechnologiesLaser Guidance
GPS Aided Guidance
Air Armament Capability Transformation Story
Unclassified
1980’s F2T2EA Operational View –Systems relationship …
1980’s F2T2EA Operational View –Systems relationship …
UNCLASSIFIED
524/04/2018
Conops:
Unguided … speed is life
Guided … Semi-active Lasers …
Weapons & Electronic/Cyber Warfare Effects Today’s ‘traditional' Kinetic and EW fires view
C2 Node
Red Networks
Gray Networks
Mil/Civil: SCADAs
Mil/Civil: SCADAs
Mil: Fire Control & C2
624/04/2018
NetworkNetwork
2020s F2T2EA Operational View –Systems and SoS relationships …2020s F2T2EA Operational View –Systems and SoS relationships …
UNCLASSIFIED
TOC
824/04/2018
C2 Node
Unclassified
ADF Air Armament IOCs
70s 80s90s 00s
Future
10s
MK 82 SEHD
MK 82 SE LD
MK36 Destructors
MK 41 Destructor
GBU-15
ACMI
AGM-142 Popeye I
GBU-12 PAVEWAY IIGBU-16
GBU-24 PAVEWAY III
MK 82 AIR
MU90
AGM-84 Harpoon
AIM-132 ASRAAMAIM-9L/M Sidewinder
AIM-9X Sidewinder
AIM-7M SparrowAIM-120B/C AMRAAM AIM-120D AMRAAM
MK 84 LDGPGBU-10 PAVEWAY II
M117 750lb
AGM-88B/E ARM
AGM-158 JASSM
AIM-9B Sidewinder
BDU-57/58/60Laser-Guided Training Round
MK 83 LDGPMK 82 LDGP
AGM-154C JSOW
Matra 550 Magic
JDAM-ER
Prior
JDAMs
AGM-88 HARMAustralian
Tested but no IOC
Kerkanya
F-111CCanberraP-3B/C
Mirage III
F/A-18A/B F/A-18F EA-18G F-35A
P-8E-7
HawkAP-3CF-111C
BLU-109
FMU-139/143
M904/905 FMU-54 Saga
Matra 530
DB 110 SAR
GBU-39/53
SDB I / II
Armed RPA
IOC
Tech Refresh / P3I
MK 46 Torpedo
Guns
AGM-114 HellfireSAL Rockets
DSTO Glide Test Vehicle
Staggered TER
924/04/2018
“5th Gen” Planned Air Force & Weapons
Bird, SQNLDR S., 2014, 6th generation counter– air missile architecture, Cranfield University, UK, July 2014 used a modified version of Tirpak J.A. See
http://www.airforcemag.com/magazinearchive/pages/2009/october 2009/1009fighter.aspx
Jet Fighter Counter‐Air Missile Generations
•RF Semi Active•IR Rear Aspect
•Low G•Point Fuze
•HE WH•WVR
•Supersonic2nd Gen
3rd Gen
4th Gen
5th Gen
6th Gen
40‐50’s 60‐70’s 70‐80’s 80‐00’s 10‐20’s 2025+1st Gen
•Supersonic Aero•BVR
•Higher G•Pro Nav Guide
•Prox Fuze
•Active RF•Data Link
•ECCM•IR All Aspect
•Digital Electronics •Shoot Down•Imaging IR
•Optimal Guide•Hi‐Off Boresight
•Partial IM
•Ram‐Rockets•2‐Way Data
link•GPS
•Adv. ECCM?•Dual Pulse?
•Adv Explosive•CLO?
•Dual Mode?•LO?
•Full IM?
•Hypersonic?•BMD Capable?•SEAD Capable?
•Miniature?•Extreme Agility?
•Extreme Range?
•Swarming?•DE Warhead?
•Hit‐to‐Kill?•VLO?
•Adv. Network?•Open Arc?
•Plug & Play?
1024/04/2018
D 1400 “Fritz X”
Unclassified
Air Armament & Warfare Epochs
1900AD
Future
24/04/2018 11
VT and Inter
valometer
DestructorsA-S Unguided
Electronic FMU-139/143
Mechanical M904/905
Fuzes
A-Su Torpedo
A-A and A-G Guns
A-S Guided
A-A Guided
Variable Yield W/H
GBU-10 LGB
0. Ancient and
post-classical
I. Early Modern Machine Guns and
Armed Aircraft
Munitions Effectiveness JMEManuals JMEM V1.0 Integrated Cyberspace
Rifles and MGs
JMEM V2.0 GEMSO V1.0
Industrial Age Digital Computers / Information AgeMechanical / Analogue / human ‘computing’
Space Age
NK 2.0 SCSE Timor IraqGulf War IVietnamAmerican Civil War WWIIWWI
II. Late Modern Subsonic & Manoeuvre
with unguided / EW
III. Semi-active supersonic
Guided Weapons with EW & AI
IV. Active GW w Data Links
GPS/EW & AI Systems
VI.+ Joint Hyper SpeedNetworked Plug & Play Enterprise
with Cognitive EW & ASI FoS
V. Joint Fires NCW P2P
with EW & AGI SoS
AfghanNK
1975 2000 20251925 1950 2050
0. Ancient and Post‐Classical ‐Mediterranean / Invasions from Central Asia / Rise of Charlemagne and Islam / Middle Ages / European Renaissance with Edged Weapons and
Gunpowder from the Far EastCopper Age 3300 BCE to first use of hand‐held air armament in Libya in 1911.
I. Early Modern Machine Guns and Armed Aircraft ‐Industrial Age Warfare with machine guns and first Armed Aircraft / Tanks with Radio Comms
1911 to the Rise of Hitler 1933
II. Late Modern Subsonic and Manoeuvre with (mostly) Unguided Weapons & EW –with first active Comms/Radar EW / Ballistic Missiles / Passive IR / RF Guided Weapons / Atomic Energy
1933 to the Space Age 1957
III. Semi‐active supersonic guided weapons with EW and first Laser/ARM AI seekers –IR / RF / Electro‐optic / Lasers / Anti‐radiation / first Low Observable aircraft ‐ One Bomb / One Target
Space Age 1957 to MIL‐STD‐1763 and Gulf War I 1991
IV. Active guided weapons with Insensitive/Penetrator Mun, Data Links, GPS & EW –Multiple Targets per Pass / MIL‐STD‐1760/3014/6016 in mostly Permissive Air with Space‐based Assets ‐
Gulf War I 1991 to Afghanistan / Gulf War II 2003
V. Joint Fires Network Centric Warfare Peer to Peer in Information Domain SoS‐Armed RPAs / LO tactics / Bidirectional Weapons P2P Data Links, Cooperative Engagement, EW, Cyber and AGI –
2003 to 2025
VI. Joint Hyper Speed Networked Plug & Play Enterprise FoS ‐First Full Armed Autonomy / Swarming NEW / VLO/EMS tactics / Cognitive EW and ASI / Integrated Cyber / Directed Energy ‐ 2025 to 2035 +
Air Armament & Warfare Epochs
1224/04/2018
Unclassified
Air Armament & Warfare Epochs
1900AD 1975 2000 2025
Future
Epoch OAircraft + hand-
held land-sea based Guns
/ EO
Uncontested!
NK 2.0 SCSVietnamAmerican Civil War E Timor AfghanIraqGulf War IWWIIWWI
1925 1950
0. Ancient and
post-classical
II. Late Modern Subsonic & Manoeuvre
with unguided / EW
III. Semi-active supersonic
Guided Weapons with EW & AI
IV. Active GW w Data Links
GPS/EW & AISystems
I. Early Modern Machine Guns & Armed Aircraft
VI.+ Joint Hyper SpeedNetworked Plug & Play Enterprise
with Cognitive EW & ASI FoS
V. Joint Fires NCW P2P
with EW & AGI SoS
Epoch IIAircraft Types EO Intervalometer (Mechanical Fuze Options with VT) & SAFE ARM
Contested 2 Nm
Bombardiers devise CEPs (50% of Bombs)
Within Visual/Radar Range
Epoch IAircraft + EO
Dispenser
Integrated Guns & EO Impact Fuzes
Contested
Line of Sight
Epoch IIISupersonic Aircraft Types Common EO Bomb Racks
EO w Mechanical Fuze Options with VT / SAFE ARM
Contested 5 Nm
MIL-STD-1763
RF/INS & Rear Aspect IR EW & SEMI-ACTIVE AI Mid
Course Guidance
Precision vs Accuracy
Epoch IVDigital Aircraft Types Smart
EO Bomb Racks
IM EO w Electronic Fuze Options & Prox Sens / SAFE ARM
Contested 20 Nm
INS / GPS Aided
MIL-STD-1760 / Data Links
Beyond LOS / INS / EW/EA Imaging IR & ACTIVE AI Mid Course
Guidance
JMEM V1.0
One Bomb / One Target
Epoch VSupercruise Federated Aircraft Armed RPAs
/ Pneumatic Bomb Racks w JMPS & UAI Adapters
LO tactics / Full IM EO Miniature Munitions w UAI, Fuze Options & Prox Sens / SAFE
ARM
Joint Fires / Contested 50Nm
Integrated GPS-Aided Munitions
NCW / MIL-STD-1760/3014
Bi directional MIL-STD-6016
EW/EA/ECCM & ACTIVE AGI Mid Course Guidance
JWS 2.0
Multiple targets / Pass
Epoch VI+Enterprise Autonomous Vehicles
Smart Pneumatic Bomb Racks w Aircraft UAI OSA / Autonomy
VLO/EMS tactics / Full IM EO Min Mun w UAI, NCW, Variable Yield Warhead/Fuze Options & Prox Sens / Autonomy / SAFE
ARM
Joint Effects / Contested 200 Nm +
Robust GPS-Aided Everything
NEW MIL-STD-1760 /FULL UAI
Plug & Play MIL-STD-6016 +
All Aspect ACTIVE ASI / SWARMING NEW / Mid Course Guidance with No
Escape
LVC: Cyber & Directed Energy
JWS 3.0 with ASI / ESM/EW/IW Control & Exploit
Penetrating Counter Air & StrikeIndustrial Age Digital / Information AgeSpace Age
2050
NK
1324/04/2018
NATIONAL INTERESTS & OBJECTIVES
NATIONAL SECURITY STRATEGY
AUSTRALIAN MILITARY STRATEGY & JOINT CAMPAIGN
AIR POWER EFFECTS
CORE AIR POWER ROLES, JOINT WARFIGHTING FUNCTIONS & MISSIONSForce Application: Control of the Air Force Application: Strike Force Projection: Air Mobility
Intelligence, Surveillance & Reconn
OffensiveCounter Air
StrategicAttack
Close AirSupport
AirInterdiction
Anti‐surfaceWarfare
Air LogisticSupport
AirborneOperations
DefensiveCounter Air Anti‐submarine
WarfareElectronicWarfare:
ES/EP & EA/ARM
Information Warfare / Cyber
Air‐to‐airRefuelling
AeromedicalEvacuation
ISR
JOINT WARFIGHTING FUNCTIONS & ABILITIESCommand & Control Situational Understanding Force Protection Force Generation & Sustainment
Air CampaigningAir Base
ProtectionJoint Personnel
RecoveryForce Generation & Capability
DevelopmentForce Preparation& Sustainment
Battlespace Management
Defensive Cyber Operations
Air & Space Systems Support
Combat Support
Operational Support
International Engagement
Information Warfare
EA: ES/EP / IW/CyberEA: ES /EP IW/Cyber
EW: ES /EP / IW/Cyber
The House of Air Power Futures
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