playbook for strategic foresight and innovation
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1A hands-on guide for modeling, designing, and leading your
company's next radical innovation
Playbook FOR STRATEGIC FORESIGHT AND Innovation
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2Playbook Development TeamTamara Carleton/>>>h^
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Playbook for Strategic Foresight and Innovation
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3Playbook for Strategic Foresight and Innovation
Playbook overviewWelcome to a guide for the strategic manager, the person who is responsible for innovation^OL[OLY[OPZTLHUZUKPUN[OLnext market, describing the future customer, or developing an amazing team who can reliably take new visions to new markets.
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4Chapter 1. The Foresight FrameworkWe introduce a comprehensive framework [OH[VMMLYZHZ[Y\J[\YLKHWWYVHJO[VUKthe big idea. Chapter 2. How to Start Discover the different types of innovation paths, people, and industry contexts to help you start in the right place with the right mindset.
Chapter 3. PerspectiveThe Context Map, Progression Curves, and Janus Cones methods broaden your view of the problem space, helping you to better anticipate the future.
Chapter 4. OpportunityThe Generational Arcs, Future User, and Futuretelling methods identify your future customers in terms of macro, micro, and narrative views.
Chapter 5. SolutionThe White Spots, Paper Mockups, and Change Path methods turn your idea into a tangible artifact and plan.
Chapter 6. TeamThe Buddy Checks, VOICE Stars, and *YV^K*SV]LYZTL[OVKZOLSW`V\UKand keep the right people engaged in your pursuit of radical innovation.
Chapter 7. VisionThe Vision Statement, DARPA Hard Test, HUK7H[OUKLYZTL[OVKZZL[[OLYPNO[organizational vision to direct your teams efforts.
AppendixSupporting material includes a list of readings, suggested data sources, and other related items.
Playbook for Strategic Foresight and Innovation
TABLE OF CONTENTS9
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91
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165
200
240
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5PERSPECTIVE OPPORTUNITY SOLUTION TEAM VISION
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Playbook for Strategic Foresight and Innovation
METHOD SHORTCUTS
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6FUTURE VISION FOR PAPER >
10 WORKSHOP LESSONS FROM AN INDUSTRY VETERAN^
A SECOND FUTURE FOR UBICOM'd
HOW YLE DEFINED A NEW FORESIGHT CAPABILITY&
SEEKING VISIONARIES AT DARPAhZW
PROGRAM MANAGERS AT DARPAZW
DARPAS LESSONS FOR INDUSTRY>ZW
TECHNOLOGY VISIONS AT DARPAZ
THE HEILMEIER CATECHISM AT DARPA>
THE ORIGINAL VISION OF EPCOTZW,
Multiple case studies are presented throughout the playbook for deeper insight into how various organizations have applied the methods or approached long-range planning.
Playbook for Strategic Foresight and Innovation
A variety of case studies
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7Playbook for Strategic Foresight and Innovation
How to use the playbookThe playbook adopts two simple schemas to help you follow the material TVYLX\PJRS `;OLYZ[ZJOLTHPZHZL[VMJVSVYLKKV[Z[OH[PKLU[PM`KPMMLYLU[types of content. The second schema applies to each methods presentation.
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Instructions1. Agree on a broad topic or
opportunity area your team wants to pursue. You set the scale of topic. Very broad topics may
2. Draw an outline for a Context Map or use the worksheet template in the playbook.
3. Start talking with your team about dimensions as they arise. Points of intense discussion or even disagreement are good to include in your Context Map.
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5. Zarrives at a map (or set of maps) that captures your problem space
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Tips & lessons from others
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REFLECTIONWhat is the proposed topic? Why do you want to pursue it?
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An American police force considered how decreasing state funds would impact a range of
ORIGINALS MISSING
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CONTEXT MAPS | method worksheet
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Drawing insights & implications D K dd
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FORESIGHT FRAMEworkChaptER 1
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Foresight Framework 10
Five planning phases 11
Two guiding principles 14
The methodology 15
Underlying theories 18
An integrated system 21
Case study: Paper 24
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What do you need to do to plan your next big idea?
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The Foresight Framework
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Five planning phases
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The methodology
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HOW TO STARTChaptER 2
Shortcuts
Lets start with questions 30
Why a playbook 31
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Types of growth 36
Finding inspiration 38
Who leads change 39
Which industries 41
Viewpoint: Revisionist 42
Sample problems 43
Learning process 45
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Starting midway 49
Teams or alone 51
Finding data 52
Case study: 10 lessons 53
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With the basic framework in mind, how should you begin approaching your group's innovation process?
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10 Reasons Not to Us
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1. You will not find a single ready-to-use idea. ' d
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I am a social scientist in Finland, and our usual Scandinavian planning principle is to plan rigorously and execute once. After working with several American colleagues from Silicon Valley, I have discovered an unexpected difference in their approach to problem-solving.
In Silicon Valley, they tend to L_LJ\[L YZ[ YL]PZL HUK [OLUexecute again. While I can see the
value in rapid learning cycles, at the same time, this approach creates a headache for Finns who have already settled contentedly and deliberately ^P[O[OLPYYZ[JYLH[PVU
As we work with more foreign innovators, Finnish managers should be exposed earlier to other ways of workingultimately leading to better harmony and making iteration a welcome part of our planning process.
VIEWPOINT | Revisionist thinking
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What types of problems are other companies and innovation managers addressing with the methods in this playbook?
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PERSPECTIVEChaptER 3
Shortcuts
Phase I: Perspective 59
Context Maps 61
Progression Curves 70
Case study: Ubicom 78
Janus Cones 81
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Have you ever spent time in a meeting and after 30 minutes, realized the group should have discussed what has happened before in your organization, let alone industry? Or wondered when the brainstorm youre in will ever converge to the main points?
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Tips & lessons from others
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Additional examples
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CONTEXT MAPS | method worksheet
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Progression Curves represent the evolution of changes in terms of [LJOUVSVNPJHSZVJPHSHUKV[OLYS[LYZ
Progression Curves
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1. After reviewing my Context Map, I decide to look at the evolution of interactive touchscreens for my first Progression Curve
2. I draw a wavy line quickly,
knowing that I can always extend
an end point or format later.
4. I add more data points from history,
realizing that I will want to continue
extending this curve during the course of
my research program
3. I keep my first pass simple, noting major developments and dates that help me understand how the field has developed
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This method helps me
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Overall, I am able to refine my
questions for finding potential
future applications in robotic
surgery
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Additional examples
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PROGRESSION CURVES | method worksheet
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Janus Cones looks backwards and forwards in time to identify the timing of historical events and how timing affects potential future events.
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Mobility as a basic need
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Urban planners design for roads and transport
New paradigm of commuting
Time spent traveling in cars
Traffic jams Rush hour
Concept of alone time in cars with self or others
Variety of car models
Car as a lifestyle / status symbol
Dangers of driving
Family trips & activities by car
Car tinkering passions
Rising costs of car ownership
Cars as displays of wealth
Seat belt safety campaigns
Driving as a rite of passage (first license)
Cars shipped as luggage
Stress of car buying
Infrastructure funding
Multiple cars in a family
Different car by life stage
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Mobility as a basic need
Parking is an issue
Urban planners design for roads and transport
New paradigm of commuting
Time spent traveling in cars
Traffic jams Rush hour
Concept of alone time in cars with self or others
Variety of car models
Car as a lifestyle / status symbol
Dangers of driving
Family trips & activities by car
Car tinkering passions
Rising costs of car ownership
Cars as displays of wealth
Seat belt safety campaigns
Driving as a rite of passage (first license)
Cars shipped as luggage
Stress of car buying
Infrastructure funding
Multiple cars in a family
Different car by life stage
1. Our priority is to focus on the
past, so we sketch a big cone on
the whiteboard with its nose pointing right to today
2. One of the first comments is about Fords assembly line, which led to a consumer choice in cars, so we note this historical point somewhere far left inside the cone
3. After a few more data points, we see the timeframe emerge, so we note the major time periods in 20-year increments under the cone
4. We draw vertical arc
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Mobility as a basic need
Parking is an issue
Urban planners design for roads and transport
New paradigm of commuting
Time spent traveling in cars
Traffic jams Rush hour
Concept of alone time in cars with self or others
Variety of car models
Car as a lifestyle / status symbol
Dangers of driving
Family trips & activities by car
Car tinkering passions
Rising costs of car ownership
Cars as displays of wealth
Seat belt safety campaigns
Driving as a rite of passage (first license)
Cars shipped as luggage
Stress of car buying
Infrastructure funding
Multiple cars in a family
Different car by life stage
We discover the majority of our group knows the last 15 years well from personal experience and then relies on
movies and grandparent anecdotes for knowledge about the prior years
We start to see a pattern about the changing definition of premium in cars, starting with premium as wealth displays
Due to our groups varied backgrounds, the Janus Cones became a useful neutral tool to bring us quickly together
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Additional examples
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JANUS CONES | method worksheet
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OPPORTUNITYChaptER 4
Shortcuts
Phase II: Opportunity 92
Generational Arcs 94
Future User 103
Viewpoint: Acting out 113
Futuretelling 114
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Source: Work Bank data, Deutsche Bank Research, Johnson Controls Oxygenz Country Report: Germany, 2010
AGE DISTRIBUTION -table comes here!
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Source: Work Bank data, Deutsche Bank Research, Johnson Controls Oxygenz Country Report: Germany, 2010
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1. We decide to
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2. We rely on World Bank reports, plus company records,
as our primary data sources
3. We decide to present both todays data and the estimated shift in 20 years (without accounting for any immigration changes)
4. We then write down some characteristics of the different generations
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We see our sweet spot in recent
customer growth is tied closely with our countrys biggest population
In 20 years, this same age group would drop by nearly a quarter, raising some concerns about available markets in the future
Part of our groups discussion focuses on how our company could better address changing generational needs
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GENERATIONAL ARCS | method worksheet
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1. We describe our primary
customer today and note
his age
2. We discuss what his
lifestyle, choices, and values
were 12 years ago and how
they have changed over time
(we pick this timeframe
based on two R&D cycles for
our company)
3. Drawing from our earl
ier
generational research, we
describe our young futur
e
customer as he exists toda
y
5. We compare and contrast the two people at their starting ages and also at their target ages, looking to understand what has changed (and what has not changed) over time
4. The target age of our future user is the same as as todays customer
-
108
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Although both users enjoy cricket and
shop foreign brands, they grew up under
different conditions in Indiawhich
affects their expectations about the
economy, government, and industry
By drawing from real people, we build a realistic persona for a future user that can drive our R&D planning
Both users value fa
mily and
education in their li
ves
-
110
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FUTURE USER | method worksheet
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;OLYL PZHUVSKZH`PUNHZ [HSRH[P]Las a Finn. The classic Finnish stereotype is someone who is [HJP[\YU HUK ZVSLTU HUK [OLnational characteristic is of polite YLZLY]L.LULYHSS`ZWLHRPUN^ L[HRLbusiness seriously and expect to ILQ\KNLKI`V\YL_WLY[PZLUV[[OLway we present ourselves.*LY[HPU PUUV]H[PVU TL[OVKZ
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VIEWPOINT | Acting out for the Finns
-
114
Futuretelling are short and dramatic performances that illustrate a particular user need as a scene from the future. This is active storytelling at its best.
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115
Source: William Cockayne, 2008
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1. We decide to show the doctor performing a critical surgery on the battlefield.
3-4. Everyone, including the patient, had some lines to say that conveyed the importance of using a portable energy generator.2. Our story
had four roles:
a doctor, medical
assistant, patient,
and fellow soldier.
5-6. We used simple props, such as giant paper scalpel, to help add some humor to our storytelling.
-
118
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Once our audience sawinstead of hearing us describethe users need in context, they began to understand the critical value of our opportunity
We gained more
empathy for the
users situation
, and
good design beg
ins
by understand
ing
basic human ne
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Everyone had a
role to play
in the productio
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united us more a
s a team
-
120
Tips & lessons from others
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2012 William Cockayne & Tamara Carleton
FUTURETELLING | METHOD WORKSHEET
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Describe your future user in one sentence or less. What does your user care about most?
What do you want your audience to understand about
tfuture? Keep it to a simple scene or two, if possible.
What other people (or objects) will your user interact with in
How do you want the audience to respond at the end of the
-
123
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SOLUTIONChaptER 5
Shortcuts
Phase III: Solution 125
White Spots 127
Paper Mockups 136
Dark Horse Prototype 145
Change Paths 149
Case study: Yle 158
-
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The third phase in the Foresight Framework brings you to a solution. 0UUV]H[P]LZVS\[PVUZHYLZWLJPJ[Vyour industry, users, organization, and individual skills.
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PHASE III: SOLUTIONd
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Paper Mockups
Change Paths
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1. I start by drawing
a big cross
2-3. I pick cost and utility as the top two dimensions from my previous Context Maps to create my two axes
4. I decide to start simply
with military and
civilian as endpoints for
utility against high and
low cost
5. I identify an extreme example for each quadrants corner to pretest the matrix
6. I add many examples on the matrix, using arrows to show movement
7-9. I mark one white spot
and ponder what could
realistically exist today
as a new industry vision
Source: Kevin Reynolds, Stanford University, ME410, 2009
-
131
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132
Although I developed a Progression Curve of flying cars from the movies and books, I focus on real solutions in my White Spots analysis
This 2x2 visual helped
me tell a complex story
about the market
opportunity and
competition in terms of
the two biggest criteria of
cost and useSource: Kevin Reynolds, Stanford University, ME410, 2009
-
133
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-
134
Additional examples
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2012 William Cockayne & Tamara Carleton
WHITE SPOTS | method worksheet
-
136
Paper Mockups asks participants to physically model a future system.
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137
Source: Ming-Li Chai, 2008
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entire system because we
want to understand how
the various parts interact
2-3. We use materials nearby to build quickly, including string and colored paper
4. One of our team members sits down to explain our idea to a group of colleagues
-
140
Drawing insights & implications dZ
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-
141
The act of building also helped us understand more about our target users and how they might react to different parts
While sketching is helpful, building our idea into a 3D
object gave us more insights into our own innovation idea
Just having a physical mockup in
hand generated intense curiosity
among colleaguesnormally, we
have to fight for their attention
during the usual slideshows
-
142
Tips & lessons from others
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-
143
Additional examples
^
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PAPER MOCKUPS | method worksheet
Feel free to use this piece of paper in your mockup.
-
145
A variation of the Paper Mockup, Dark Horse prototypes are three-dimensional physical prototypes that are built to explore a previous PU[\P[PVUVYYLQLJ[LKPKLH
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We made one dramatic yet important change: by moving the string from the people to the houses, we emphasized the social network (and transfer of knowledge) among the houses
-
148
DARK HORSE PROTOTYPE | method worksheet
Tear your previous Paper Mockup in half.
Discuss.
-
Change Paths are data-driven narratives exploring different paths and key decision points toward possible future innovations.
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2012 William Cockayne & Tamara Carleton150
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Instructions
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1. Boeing and Airbus take two different
views of the future: one imagines the
ultimate point-to-point airplane for
customers and the other imagines a
luxury liner between major airport hubs
3. We mark the two b
ig
decisions each compa
ny
must take to achieve
their
respective visions with
a X
further along on the
timeline
4. Boeing also pursued new technologies and materials for greater airplane efficiency, which was largely out of their controla decision they could have placed off their path
2. We note the first s
tep
each company can do
on
their path to action at
the
start of the timeline
-
153
Drawing insights & implicationsdZ //
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154
We realized t
hat the same
future can s
upport multi
ple,
even competi
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Boeing actually started with a different vision that crystallized into the 787. Only in hindsight does the future look like a clear and straight path!
Both companies achieved the future they wanted by doing things that they could affect directly
-
155
Tips & lessons from others ^
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Additional examples
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CHANGE PATHS | method worksheet
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CASE STUDY | How YLE defined a new foresight capability
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TEAMChaptER 6
Shortcuts
Phase IV: Team 166
Buddy Checks 168
*HZLZ[\K`!+(97(QVIHK 177
Voice Stars 178
Case study: DARPA PMs 187
Crowd Clovers 188
Case study: DARPA lessons 197
-
166
You have the start of a great idea. Now you want to know: how do Itake this idea back to my group? How can I take it inside my organization, so the idea may V\YPZOPU[VTLHUPUNM\SHJ[PVU&Or what if I dont have a team yet? What should I do next?
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Buddy Checks evaluates potential new co-founders, partners, and teammates by showing their reaction level to new ideas.
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Instructions ^
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171
1. I volunteer to present our
rough
idea, and Anna and Jesse pr
etend
to be two colleagues we know
whom we hope join our effor
ts
2. We agree our first colleague
sits between levels 4 and 5
because his first reaction is to
volunteer for the team and his
later reactions are to suggest
minor improvements to refine
our raw idea
3. After some more rehearsal
with Anna, we find two
scenarios that we expect will
prompt the reaction we want
from our second colleague,
who wed like to join as a
group leader
1
2 3
4 5
6 7
-
172
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173
We realize others have
an instant gut
reaction to new ideas,
which reveals their
true feelings about
playing along
The extra rehearsals lets us test a few different ways of telling our idea to generate the higher level reactioninstead of starting at a lower level and working up to the reaction we wanted from the start of the interaction1
2 3
4 5
6 7
-
174
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175
Additional examples
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2012 William Cockayne & Tamara Carleton
BUDDY CHECKS | method worksheet
1
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177Source: The Economist magazine, 2008
177
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Are you a scientist or engineer with a radical idea (or ideas) that you believe could provide meaningful change of lasting EHQHWIRUWKH86PLOLWDU\"Would you like to lead the countrys most capable academic and industrial experts to make that idea become reality in a period of MXVWDIHZ\HDUV"
If so, you should consider QVPUPUN[OL+LMLUZL(K]HUJLK9LZLHYJO7YVQLJ[Z(NLUJ`(DARPA) as a program manager.
:KDWLVD'$53$30"A DARPA program manager is
> An idea generator > A technical expert > An entrepreneur> A visionary> A patriot dedicated to national service
CASE STUDY | A job posting for DARPA
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178
VOICE Stars is a talent diagnostic that measures the leadership aptitude for radical innovation of an individual or team.
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Instructions
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1. Our f
irst step is to dr
aw the
underlying sta
r shape
2-3. We write a VOI
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attribute at the end o
f each
line and mark five ti
ck
marks for scoring p
er line
4-5. We take turns scoring ourselves across all the attributes, drawing a connecting line between individual scores
6. We discuss different activities our group does that helps foster a climate for each attribute
-
182
Drawing insights & implicationsdsK/ ^ & K
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183
We realize our team scores most high on being curious, which
helps explain why we all appreciate exploring new topics and possibilities together
Only one of our team is r
egularly
voracious, and we discuss
how we
rely on him to hear the la
test news
updates and scan the ma
rket for us
We find it tough to
think of examples we
do to provoke or start
new actions, which
leads to a good
discussion about
what other activities
and even people we
should get to help us
grow in this area
-
184
Tips & lessons from others sK/
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Additional examples
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2012 William Cockayne & Tamara Carleton
VOICE STARS | method worksheet
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187
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CASE STUDY | Program Managers at DARPA
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188
Crowd Clovers maps the various related components of a personal network focused on advancing new innovation ideas.
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2. I write the peo
ple who
provoke me mos
t in the
purple leaflet (pu
rple =
provoke)
3. I write the people who grow
and expand our ideas with
access to more resources in the
green leaflet (green = grow)
4. I write the people who realize our efforts and push us toward action in the red leaflet (red = realize)
5. I write the people who broadcast and circulate our ideas within their networks in the blue leaflet (blue = broadcast)6. I draw boxes around the people whom we relate to formally (like our boss and other division leads)
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the same
small group of
people for all
our innovation
efforts
I see we rely most heavily on
formal ties for two areas of network action, namely to
find resources and to push us to execute
I know few peop
le
who help promo
te our
ideas and expose
us to
other networks,
an
area I decide to
improve this ye
ar by
hiring a person
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CROWD CLOVERS | method worksheet
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VISIONChaptER 7
Shortcuts
Phase V: Vision 201
Vision Statement 203
Case study: DARPA visions 212
DARPA Hard Test 213
Case study: DARPA criteria 227
Case study: EPCOT vision 228
7H[OUKLYZ 230
-
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With a team in place, your next step is to turn your big idea into a vision that will excite more people, mobilize further action, and ultimately secure funding and support as part of a larger campaign.
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the
Context Maps to explain what ma
de our
idea such a bold opportunity.
3. Looking at the Janus Cones help us understand why our vision should exist now.
4. We decide to name only two popular past
examples from our Progression Curves analysis to not overwhelm our users.
5. We name four companies which would be ideal partners for us, two of which are already working with us on other projects.
6. The Progression
Curves help us estimate
a realistic date.
7. We need to discuss more
which two big steps from our
Change Path will show we
are directly on track to
achieve this big vision.
1. We start by referring back to the
story we told in the Futuretelling
exercise about our idea. The Dark
Horse method lets us focus on what
is essential to our innovation.
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207
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Once we hooked our audiences interest, they wanted to know what we would do next, so our team had some more work to do to complete the vision statement.
Our audience quic
kly reacted to the
long and geeky de
scription of our
vision, so we neede
d to remove jargon
and simplify it.
We also learned that people liked hearing specific companies, which added more validity to our crazy idea.
-
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Additional examples
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2012 William Cockayne & Tamara Carleton211
VISION STATEMENT | method worksheet
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CASE STUDY | Technology visions at DARPA
Photo: Jeff Corwin Photography, Boeing
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213
Adapted from DARPA, the DARPA Hard Test describes four qualities of a radical innovation vision: far-reaching, technically challenging, multidisciplinary, and actionable.
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B. Established a new U.S. space agency called NASA to centralize and mobilize efforts
D. First step was to conduct feasibility study and provoke possible partners
E. A committee-driven approach managed by a global technology company
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Drawing insights & implicationsd
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1. On the straight line,
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2. We select two ideas that were pursued in the past year: one which stalled after several months and another which quickly got the attention of the CTO
3. We then trace each ideas progress, marking specific events in its timeline
4. We drew the path up above the water line when a particular event moved the idea ahead and drew the path down when the idea slowed down for any reason
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Pathfinders | method worksheet
My notes:
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APPENDIX
Shortcuts
Sponsors 241
Development team 243
Research partners 246
Terms of use 248
Suggested readings 249
Data sources 255
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The playbook team gratefully acknowledges generous support from Tekes and the Lappeenranta University of Technology (LUT) in Finland.
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Tamara Carletonv.1.7 / 09:04:13
PLAYBOOK FOR STRATEGIC FORESIGHT AND INNOVATION (cover)Playbook overviewTable of contentsMethod shortcutsA variety of case studiesHow to use the playbook
CHAPTER 1 | FORESIGHT FRAMEWORKThe Foresight FrameworkFive planning phasesTwo guiding principlesThe methodologyUnderlying theoriesAn integrated systemCASE STUDY | Future vision for paper
CHAPTER 2 | HOW TO STARTLets start with questionsWhy a playbook?What definitions are we using?What type of growth do we seek?Where do we find inspiration?Who leads change in innovation?Which contexts or industries work best?VIEWPOINT | Revisionist thinkingWhat types of problems are addressed?What is the learning process?Can we start with a specific objective?Where do we start midway in a project?Should we work in teams or alone?Where can we find credible data?CASE STUDY | 10 workshop lessons from an industry veteran
CHAPTER 3 | PERSPECTIVE Phase I: PerspectiveContext MapsProgression CurvesCASE STUDY | Crafting a new vision after UbicomJanus Cones
CHAPTER 4 | OPPORTUNITYPhase II: OpportunityGenerational ArcsFuture UserVIEWPOINT | Acting out for the FinnsFuturetelling
CHAPTER 5 | SOLUTIONPhase III: SolutionWhite SpotsPaper MockupsDark Horse PrototypeChange PathsCASE STUDY | How YLE defined a new foresight capability
CHAPTER 6 | TEAMPhase IV: TeamBuddy ChecksCASE STUDY | A job posting for DARPAVOICE StarsCASE STUDY | Program managers at DARPACrowd CloversCASE STUDY | DARPAs lessons for industry
CHAPTER 7 | VISIONPhase V: VisionVision StatementCASE STUDY | Technology visions at DARPADARPA Hard TestCASE STUDY | The Heilmeier Catechism at DARPACASE STUDY | The original vision of EpcotPathfinders
APPENDIXAbout our sponsorsAbout the development teamAbout our research partnersTerms of useSuggested readingsData sources: Emerging technologiesData sources: Location & populationData sources: Future trendsData sources: Finland
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